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Buruli ulcer, a chronic subcutaneous infection caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, is increasing in prevalence in southeastern Australia. Possums are a local wildlife reservoir for M. ulcerans and, although mosquitoes have been implicated in transmission, it remains unclear how humans acquire infection. We conducted extensive field survey analyses of M. ulcerans prevalence among mosquitoes in the Mornington Peninsula region of southeastern Australia. PCR screening of trapped mosquitoes revealed a significant association between M. ulcerans and Aedes notoscriptus. Spatial scanning statistics revealed overlap between clusters of M. ulcerans-positive Ae. notoscriptus, M. ulcerans-positive possum excreta and Buruli ulcer cases, and metabarcoding analyses showed individual mosquitoes had fed on humans and possums. Bacterial genomic analysis confirmed shared single-nucleotide-polymorphism profiles for M. ulcerans detected in mosquitoes, possum excreta and humans. These findings indicate Ae. notoscriptus probably transmit M. ulcerans in southeastern Australia and highlight mosquito control as a Buruli ulcer prevention measure.

OBJECTIVES: Whole genome sequencing (WGS) can identify clusters, transmission patterns, and drug resistance mutations. This is important in low-burden settings such as Australia, as it can assist in efficient contact tracing and surveillance. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using WGS from 155 genomically defined drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (DR-TB) isolates collected between 2018-2021 in Victoria, Australia. Bioinformatic analysis was performed to identify resistance-conferring mutations, lineages, clusters and understand how local sequences compared with international context. RESULTS: Of the 155 sequences, 42% were identified as lineage 2 and 35% as lineage 1; 65.8% (102/155) were isoniazid mono-resistant, 8.4% were multi-drug resistant TB and 5.8% were pre-extensively drug-resistant / extensively drug-resistant TB. The most common mutations were observed in katG and fabG1 genes, especially at Ser315Thr and fabG1 -15 C>T for first-line drugs. Ser450Leu was the most frequent mutation in rpoB gene. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed that Victorian DR-TB were associated with importation events. There was little evidence of local transmission with only five isolate pairs. CONCLUSION: Isoniazid-resistant TB is the commonest DR-TB in Victoria, and the mutation profile is similar to global circulating DR-TB. Most cases are diagnosed among migrants with limited transmission. This study highlights the value of WGS in identification of clusters and resistance-conferring mutations. This information is crucial in supporting disease mitigation and treatment strategies.

To examine protective and risk factors for Buruli ulcer (BU), we conducted a case-control study of 245 adult BU cases and 481 postcode-matched controls across BU-endemic areas of Victoria, Australia. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios for socio-environmental, host, and behavioral factors associated with BU by using conditional logistic regression. Odds of BU were >2-fold for persons with diabetes mellitus and persons working outdoors who had soil contact in BU-endemic areas (compared with indoor work) but were lower among persons who had bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccinations. BU was associated with increasing numbers of possums and with ponds and bore water use at residences. Using insect repellent, covering arms and legs outdoors, and immediately washing wounds were protective; undertaking multiple protective behaviors was associated with the lowest odds of BU. Skin hygiene/protection behaviors and previous bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination might provide protection against BU in BU-endemic areas.

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer (BU) is a neglected tropical disease caused by infection of subcutaneous tissue with Mycobacterium ulcerans. BU is commonly reported across rural regions of Central and West Africa but has been increasing dramatically in temperate southeast Australia around the major metropolitan city of Melbourne, with most disease transmission occurring in the summer months. Previous research has shown that Australian native possums are reservoirs of M. ulcerans and that they shed the bacteria in their fecal material (excreta). Field surveys show that locales where possums harbor M. ulcerans overlap with human cases of BU, raising the possibility of using possum excreta surveys to predict the risk of disease occurrence in humans. METHODS: We thus established a highly structured 12 month possum excreta surveillance program across an area of 350 km2 in the Mornington Peninsula area 70 km south of Melbourne, Australia. The primary objective of our study was to assess using statistical modeling if M. ulcerans surveillance of possum excreta provided useful information for predicting future human BU case locations. RESULTS: Over two sampling campaigns in summer and winter, we collected 2,282 possum excreta specimens of which 11% were PCR positive for M. ulcerans-specific DNA. Using the spatial scanning statistical tool SaTScan, we observed non-random, co-correlated clustering of both M. ulcerans positive possum excreta and human BU cases. We next trained a statistical model with the Mornington Peninsula excreta survey data to predict the future likelihood of human BU cases occurring in the region. By observing where human BU cases subsequently occurred, we show that the excreta model performance was superior to a null model trained using the previous year's human BU case incidence data (AUC 0.66 vs 0.55). We then used data unseen by the excreta-informed model from a new survey of 661 possum excreta specimens in Geelong, a geographically separate BU endemic area

BACKGROUND: Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used by tuberculosis (TB) programs to monitor Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. We aimed to characterise the molecular epidemiology of TB and Mtb transmission in the low-incidence setting of Victoria, Australia, and assess the utility of WGS. METHODS: WGS was performed on all first Mtb isolates from TB cases from 2017 to 2020. Potential clusters (≤12 single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) were investigated for epidemiological links. Transmission events in highly-related (≤5 SNPs) clusters were classified as likely or possible, based on the presence or absence of an epidemiological link, respectively. Case characteristics and transmission settings (as defined by case relationship) were summarised. Poisson regression was used to examine associations with secondary case number. FINDINGS: Of 1844 TB cases, 1276 (69.2%) had sequenced isolates, with 182 (14.2%) in 54 highly-related clusters, 2-40 cases in size. Following investigation, 140 cases (11.0% of sequenced) were classified as resulting from likely/possible local-transmission, including 82 (6.4%) for which transmission was likely. Common identified transmission settings were social/religious (26.4%), household (22.9%) and family living in different households (7.1%), but many were uncertain (41.4%). While household transmission featured in many clusters (n = 24), clusters were generally smaller (median = 3 cases) than the fewer that included transmission in social/religious settings (n = 12, median = 7.5 cases). Sputum-smear-positivity was associated with higher secondary case numbers. INTERPRETATION: WGS results suggest Mtb transmission commonly occurs outside the household in our low-incidence setting. Further work is required to optimise the use of WGS in public health management of TB. FUNDING: The Victorian Tuberculosis Program receives block funding for activities including case management and contact tracing from the Victorian Departmen

In recent years reported cases of Buruli ulcer, caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, have increased substantially in Victoria, Australia, with the epidemic also expanding geographically. To develop an understanding of how M. ulcerans circulates in the environment and transmits to humans we analyzed environmental samples collected from 115 properties of recent Buruli ulcer cases and from 115 postcode-matched control properties, for the presence of M. ulcerans. Environmental factors associated with increased odds of M. ulcerans presence at a property included certain native plant species and native vegetation in general, more alkaline soil, lower altitude, the presence of common ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) and overhead powerlines. However, only overhead powerlines and the absence of the native plant Melaleuca lanceolata were associated with Buruli ulcer case properties. Samples positive for M. ulcerans were more likely to be found at case properties and were associated with detections of M. ulcerans in ringtail possum feces, supporting the hypothesis that M. ulcerans is zoonotic, with ringtail possums the strongest reservoir host candidate. However, the disparity in environmental risk factors associated with M. ulcerans positive properties versus case properties indicates the involvement of human behavior or the influence of other environmental factors in disease acquisition that requires further study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate care cascades for programmatic active case finding and latent TB infection (LTBI) management in young child TB contacts (aged <5 years) in Victoria, Australia. DESIGN: This was a retrospective review of public health surveillance data to identify contacts of all pulmonary TB cases notified from 2016 to 2019. RESULTS: Contact tracing identified 574 young child contacts of 251 pulmonary TB cases. Active TB was found in 28 (4.9%) contacts, none of whom had previously received bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination, and 529 were tested for TB infection using the tuberculin skin test (TST). The overall TST positivity was 15.3% (95% CI 0.1–0.2). Among the 574 children, 150 (26.1%) were close contacts of sputum smear-positive cases and 25 (16.7%) of these were not referred to TB clinics. Of the 125 referred, 81 were considered to have LTBI, 79 agreed to commence TB preventive treatment (TPT) and 71 (89.9%) completed TPT. Following completion of TPT, no child was subsequently diagnosed with active TB. CONCLUSION: There was a high yield from active case finding and uptake of TPT. Notable losses in the cascade of care occurred around referral to tertiary clinics, but high treatment completion rates and good outcomes were found in those prescribed treatment.

Laboratory-confirmed infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans is currently notifiable to health departments in several jurisdictions. Accurate surveillance is imperative to understanding current and emerging areas of endemicity and to facilitate research into a neglected tropical disease with poorly-understood transmission dynamics. The state of Victoria currently reports some of the highest numbers of M. ulcerans cases in the world each year, with 340 cases notified in 2018 (an incidence of 5.5 per 100,000 population). In May 2019, a group of clinical, laboratory and public health experts met to discuss a new case definition for the surveillance of M. ulcerans disease in Victoria, incorporating clinical and epidemiological elements. The new case definition supports important public health messaging and actions for residents and visitors to popular tourist areas in Victoria.

Uncertainty regarding transmission pathways and control measures makes prompt presentation and diagnosis for Buruli ulcer critical. To examine presentation and diagnosis delays in Victoria, Australia, we conducted a retrospective study of 703 cases notified between 2011 and 2017, classified as residing in an endemic (Mornington Peninsula; Bellarine Peninsula; South-east Bayside and Frankston) or non-endemic area. Overall median presentation delay was 30 days (IQR 14-60 days), with no significant change over the study period (p = 0.11). There were significant differences in median presentation delay between areas of residence (p = 0.02), but no significant change over the study period within any area. Overall median diagnosis delay was 10 days (IQR 0-40 days), with no significant change over the study period (p = 0.13). There were significant differences in median diagnosis delay between areas (p < 0.001), but a significant decrease over time only on the Mornington Peninsula (p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, being aged <15 or >65 years; having non-ulcerative disease; and residing in the Bellarine Peninsula or South-East Bayside (compared to non-endemic areas) were significantly associated with shorter presentation delay. Residing in the Bellarine or Mornington Peninsula and being notified later in the study period were significantly associated with shorter diagnosis delay. To reduce presentation and diagnosis delays, awareness of Buruli ulcer must be raised with the public and medical professionals, particularly those based outside established endemic areas.

BACKGROUND: In current epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB), heterogeneity in infectiousness among TB patients is a challenge, which is not well studied. We aimed to quantify this heterogeneity and the presence of "super-spreading" events that can assist in designing optimal public health interventions. METHODS: TB epidemiologic investigation data notified between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015 from Victoria, Australia were used to quantify TB patients' heterogeneity in infectiousness and super-spreading events. We fitted a negative binomial offspring distribution (NBD) for the number of secondary infections and secondary active TB disease each TB patient produced. The dispersion parameter, k, of the NBD measures the level of heterogeneity, where low values of k (e.g. k < 1) indicate over-dispersion. Super-spreading was defined as patients causing as many or more secondary infections as the 99th centile of an equivalent homogeneous distribution. Contact infection was determined based on a tuberculin skin test (TST) result of ≥10 mm. A NBD model was fitted to identify index characteristics that were associated with the number of contacts infected and risk ratios (RRs) were used to quantify the strength of this association. RESULTS: There were 4190 (2312 pulmonary and 1878 extrapulmonary) index TB patients and 18,030 contacts. A total of 15,522 contacts were tested with TST, of whom 3213 had a result of ≥10 mm. The dispersion parameter, k for secondary infections was estimated at 0.16 (95%CI 0.14-0.17) and there were 414 (9.9%) super-spreading events. From the 3213 secondary infections, 2415 (75.2%) were due to super-spreading events. There were 226 contacts who developed active TB disease and a higher level of heterogeneity was found for this outcome than for secondary infection, with k estimated at 0.036 (95%CI 0.025-0.046). In regression analyses, we found that infectiousness was greater among index patients found by clinical presentation and those with bacteriol

Globally, rates of tuberculosis (TB) cases in prisons are substantially higher than in the general population. The goal of this study was to review TB notifications in Victorian correctional facilities, and consider whether additional interventions towards TB elimination may be useful in this setting. All patients who were notified with or treated for TB in the Australian state of Victoria from 1 January 2003 to 1 December 2017 were included in this study. Descriptive analysis was performed. Demographic and treatment outcome data for individuals with and without a history of incarceration were reviewed and compared. Of the 5645 TB cases notified during the study period, 26 (0.5%) had a history of being incarcerated in correctional facilities while receiving treatment for TB. There were 73,238 inmates in Victorian correctional facilities over the same study period, meaning that approximately 0.04% of inmates were diagnosed or treated with TB disease in correctional facilities. Incarcerated individuals were more likely to have positive sputum smears and cavitation compared with nonincarcerated people with TB. There was no significant difference in treatment outcomes between the general TB population and those who had a history of incarceration during their treatment. There is a low apparent rate of TB in Victorian prisoners, and prisons do not contribute significantly to TB incidence in Victoria. Overall, TB outcomes do not differ between prisoners and nonprisoners. Ongoing efforts to sustain these lower rates and comparable outcomes in this vulnerable cohort are important for continued progress towards TB elimination.

Buruli ulcer (BU) is a destructive soft-tissue infection caused by the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. In response to rising BU notifications in the state of Victoria, Australia, we reviewed all cases that occurred during 2011-2016 to precisely map the time and likely place of M. ulcerans acquisition. We found that 600 cases of BU had been notified; just over half were in residents and the remainder in visitors to defined BU-endemic areas. During the study period, notifications increased almost 3-fold, from 66 in 2013 to 182 in 2016. We identified 4 BU-endemic areas: Bellarine Peninsula, Mornington Peninsula, Frankston region, and the southeastern Bayside suburbs of Melbourne. We observed a decline in cases on the Bellarine Peninsula but a progressive increase elsewhere. Acquisitions peaked in late summer. The appearance of new BU-endemic areas and the decline in established areas probably correlate with changes in the level of local environmental contamination with M. ulcerans.

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas. METHODOLOGY: We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004-2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0-24 months to investigate patterns of correlation. CONCLUSIONS: Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer (BU) is a geographically-restricted infection caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans; contact with an endemic region is the primary risk factor for disease acquisition. Globally, efforts to estimate the incubation period of BU are often hindered as most patients reside permanently in endemic areas. However, in the south-eastern Australian state of Victoria, a significant proportion of people who acquire BU are visitors to endemic regions. During a sustained outbreak of BU on the Bellarine peninsula we estimated a mean incubation period of 4.5 months. Since then cases on the Bellarine peninsula have declined but a new endemic area has developed centred on the Mornington peninsula. METHOD: Retrospective review of 443 cases of BU notified in Victoria between 2013 and 2016. Telephone interviews were performed to identify all cases with a single visit to an endemic region, or multiple visits within a one month period. The incubation period was defined as the time between exposure to an endemic region and symptom onset. Data were subsequently combined with those from our earlier study incorporating cases from 2002 to 2012. RESULTS: Among the 20 new cases identified in short-term visitors, the mean incubation period was 143 days (4.8 months), very similar to the previous estimate of 135 days (4.5 months). This was despite the predominant exposure location shifting from the Bellarine peninsula to the Mornington peninsula. We found no association between incubation period and age, sex, location of exposure, duration of exposure to an endemic region or location of BU lesion. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms the mean incubation period of BU in Victoria to be between 4 and 5 months. This knowledge can guide clinicians and suggests that the mode of transmission of BU is similar in different geographic regions in Victoria.

Setting. Tuberculosis treatment requires long regimens with multiple antibiotics and is complicated by antibiotic resistance and intolerance. Fluoroquinolones were introduced for the treatment of multidrug resistant TB and have become a vital part of therapy. Objective. Reviewing the indications for fluoroquinolones use in the treatment of active TB in Victoria, Australia. Design. This was a retrospective case-control study of Victorian patients prescribed fluoroquinolones for active tuberculosis, from January 2011 to December 2016. Indications for fluoroquinolone use were extracted from an existing public health database. Results. There were 2268 patients notified to have tuberculosis in Victoria between 2011 and 2016, 276 (12.2%) of whom received a fluoroquinolone. The indications were substitution when intolerance was present (33.3%) or anticipated (21.0%), proven drug resistance (22.5%), suspected drug resistance (13.0%), and site of disease (10.1%). Where fluoroquinolones were prescribed for suspected drug resistance, only a minority of isolates (13%) had resistance confirmed. Conclusion. Fluoroquinolones were most commonly used as replacement for first-line therapy related to adverse effects, when either present or anticipated. Where fluoroquinolones were prescribed for suspected drug resistance, only a minority of isolates ultimately had resistance confirmed. These findings reinforce the importance of fluoroquinolones in TB therapy and the need for ongoing pharmacovigilance to ensure appropriate use.

Australia is a low tuberculosis incidence country. In the setting of increasing migration, we aimed to investigate the epidemiology and trends of tuberculosis in the Australian-born population in the state of Victoria between 1992 and 2017. We performed a retrospective descriptive analysis of demographic, clinical and outcome data extracted from a centralized notifiable disease database. The mean incidence of tuberculosis was 1.19 cases per 100,000 population per year with a small but significant reduction of 0.98% per year. The median age of cases decreased from 67.5 years in 1994 to 17 years in 2017. Among 0⁻14 year-olds, there was an increase from 0.13 cases per 100,000 population in 1996 to 2.15 per 100,000 population in 2017. Data for risk factors were available from 2002 onwards. The most common risk factor in the 0⁻14 year age group was a household contact with tuberculosis (85.1%), followed by having a parent from a high tuberculosis incidence country (70.2%). We found the rate of tuberculosis in the Australian-born population in Victoria is low. However, there has been an increase in incidence in children, particularly among those with links to countries with high tuberculosis incidence. This could threaten progress towards tuberculosis elimination in Australia.

Background: Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, is increasing in incidence in Victoria, Australia. To improve understanding of disease transmission, we aimed to map the location of BU lesions on the human body. Methods: Using notification data and clinical records review, we conducted a retrospective observational study of patients diagnosed with BU in Victoria from 1998–2015. We created electronic density maps of lesion locations using spatial analysis software and compared lesion distribution by age, gender, presence of multiple lesions and month of infection. Findings: We examined 579 patients with 649 lesions; 32 (5.5%) patients had multiple lesions. Lesions were predominantly located on lower (70.0%) and upper (27.1%) limbs, and showed a non-random distribution with strong predilection for the ankles, elbows and calves. When stratified by gender, upper limb lesions were more common (OR 1·97, 95% CI 1·38–2·82, p<0·001) while lower limb lesions were less common in men than in women (OR 0·48, 95% CI 0·34–0·68, p<0·001). Patients aged ≥ 65 years (OR 3·13, 95% CI 1·52–6·43, p = 0·001) and those with a lesion on the ankle (OR 2·49, 95% CI 1·14–5·43, p = 0·02) were more likely to have multiple lesions. Most infections (71.3%) were likely acquired in the warmer 6 months of the year. Interpretation: Comparison with published work in Cameroon, Africa, showed similar lesion distribution and suggests the mode of M. ulcerans transmission may be the same across the globe. Our findings also aid clinical diagnosis and provide quantitative background information for further research investigating disease transmission

BACKGROUND: Private healthcare providers are important to tuberculosis (TB) management globally, although internationally there are reports of suboptimal management and disparities in treatment commencement in the private sector. We compared the management of TB patients receiving private versus public healthcare in Victoria, an industrialised setting with low tuberculosis (TB) incidence. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study: 2002-2015. Private healthcare provision was included as an independent variable in several multivariate logistic and Cox proportional hazard regression models that assessed a range of outcome variables, encompassing treatment commencement delays, management and treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Of 5106 patients, 275 (5.4%) exclusively saw private providers, and 4714 (92.32%) public. Private care was associated with a shorter delay to presentation (HR 1.36, p = 0.065, 95% CI 1.02-2.00). Private patients were less likely to have genotypic testing (OR 0.66, p = 0.009, 95% CI 0.48-0.90), those with pulmonary involvement were less likely to have a sputum smear (OR 0.52, p = 0.011, 95% CI 0.31-0.86) and provided samples were less likely to be positive (OR 0.54, p = 0.070, 95% CI 0.27-1.05). Private patients with extrapulmonary TB were less likely to have a smear sample (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.48-0.90, p = 0.009) and radiological abnormalities (OR 0.71, p = 0.070, 95% CI 0.27-1.05). Treatment commencement delays from presentation were comparable for cases with pulmonary involvement and extrapulmonary TB, although public extrapulmonary TB patients received radiological examinations slightly earlier than private patients (HR 0.79, p = 0.043, 95% CI 0.63-0.99) and public patients with pulmonary involvement from high burden settings commenced treatment following an abnormal CXR more promptly than their private counterparts (HR 0.41, p = 0.011, 95% CI 0.21-0.81). Private patients were more likely to receive <4 first-line medications (OR 2.17, p = 0.001, 95% CI 1.36-3.

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, is increasing in incidence in Victoria, Australia. To improve understanding of disease transmission, we aimed to map the location of BU lesions on the human body. METHODS: Using notification data and clinical records review, we conducted a retrospective observational study of patients diagnosed with BU in Victoria from 1998-2015. We created electronic density maps of lesion locations using spatial analysis software and compared lesion distribution by age, gender, presence of multiple lesions and month of infection. FINDINGS: We examined 579 patients with 649 lesions; 32 (5.5%) patients had multiple lesions. Lesions were predominantly located on lower (70.0%) and upper (27.1%) limbs, and showed a non-random distribution with strong predilection for the ankles, elbows and calves. When stratified by gender, upper limb lesions were more common (OR 1·97, 95% CI 1·38-2·82, p<0·001) while lower limb lesions were less common in men than in women (OR 0·48, 95% CI 0·34-0·68, p<0·001). Patients aged ≥ 65 years (OR 3·13, 95% CI 1·52-6·43, p = 0·001) and those with a lesion on the ankle (OR 2·49, 95% CI 1·14-5·43, p = 0·02) were more likely to have multiple lesions. Most infections (71.3%) were likely acquired in the warmer 6 months of the year. INTERPRETATION: Comparison with published work in Cameroon, Africa, showed similar lesion distribution and suggests the mode of M. ulcerans transmission may be the same across the globe. Our findings also aid clinical diagnosis and provide quantitative background information for further research investigating disease transmission.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the burden of and trends in paediatric tuberculosis (TB) in Australia between 2003 and 2012. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of TB data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) on TB in children (under 15 years of age) during the 10-year period, 2003-2012. RESULTS: TB notifications in Australia during the study period included 538 children (range, 37-66 cases per year), representing 4.6% of the total TB case load during the period (range, 3.8%-5.8% each year). Place of birth was recorded for 524 patients (97.4%); of these, 230 (43.9%) were born in Australia, 294 (56.1%) overseas. The average annual notification rate was 1.31 (95% CI, 1.20-1.43) cases per 100 000 child population. The rate was higher for overseas-born than for Australian-born children (9.57 [95% CI, 8.51-10.73] v 0.61 [95% CI, 0.53-0.69] cases per 100 000 children. The overall rate was highest among those aged 0-4 years. The annual notification rate was three times higher for Indigenous children than for non-Indigenous Australian-born children. Of 427 patients (79.4% of total) for whom the method of case detection was recorded, 37.0% were detected by contact screening, 8.7% by post-arrival immigration screening, and 54.3% by passive case detection. Pulmonary TB was the most common diagnostic classification (64.7% of patients). The most common risk factors were close contact with a TB case and recent residence in a country with a high incidence of TB. Treatment outcomes were satisfactory; 89.4% of children had completed treatment or were cured. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of paediatric TB in Australia is low but has not changed over the past decade. The highest rates are among children born overseas, emphasising the important role of immigration screening as Australia aspires to eliminate TB.

INTRODUCTION: Health authorities find thresholds useful to gauge the start and severity of influenza seasons. We explored a method for deriving thresholds proposed in an influenza surveillance manual published by the World Health Organization (WHO). METHODS: For 2002-2011, we analysed two routine influenza-like-illness (ILI) datasets, general practice sentinel surveillance and a locum medical service sentinel surveillance, plus laboratory data and hospital admissions for influenza. For each sentinel dataset, we created two composite variables from the product of weekly ILI data and the relevant laboratory data, indicating the proportion of tested specimens that were positive. For all datasets, including the composite datasets, we aligned data on the median week of peak influenza or ILI activity and assigned three threshold levels: seasonal threshold, determined by inspection; and two intensity thresholds termed average and alert thresholds, determined by calculations of means, medians, confidence intervals (CI) and percentiles. From the thresholds, we compared the seasonal onset, end and intensity across all datasets from 2002-2011. Correlation between datasets was assessed using the mean correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The median week of peak activity was week 34 for all datasets, except hospital data (week 35). Means and medians were comparable and the 90% upper CIs were similar to the 95(th) percentiles. Comparison of thresholds revealed variations in defining the start of a season but good agreement in describing the end and intensity of influenza seasons, except in hospital admissions data after the pandemic year of 2009. The composite variables improved the agreements between the ILI and other datasets. Datasets were well correlated, with mean correlation coefficients of >0.75 for a range of combinations. CONCLUSIONS: Thresholds for influenza surveillance are easily derived from historical surveillance and laboratory data using the approach proposed by WHO.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: During the temperate out-of-season months in Australia in late 2010 and early 2011, an unprecedented high number of influenza notifications were recorded. We aimed to assess the significance of these notifications. METHODS: For Australia, we used laboratory-confirmed cases notified to the WHO FluNet surveillance tool; the percentage of these that were positive; notifications by state and influenza type and subtype; and surveillance data from Google FluTrends. For the state of Victoria, we used laboratory-confirmed notified cases and influenza-like illness (ILI) proportions. We compared virus characterisation using haemagglutination-inhibition assays and phylogenetic analysis of the haemagglutinin gene for seasonal and out-of-season notifications. RESULTS: The increase in notifications was most marked in tropical and subtropical Australia, but the number of out-of-season notifications in temperate Victoria was more than five times higher than the average of the previous three seasons. However, ILI proportions in spring-summer were not different to previous years. All out-of-season viruses tested were antigenically and genetically similar to those tested during either the 2010 or 2011 influenza seasons. An increase in the number of laboratories testing for influenza has led to an increase in the number of tests performed and cases notified. CONCLUSION: An increase in influenza infections in spring-summer of 2010-11 in tropical and temperate Australia was not associated with any differences in virus characterisation compared with viruses that circulated in the preceding and following winters. This increase probably reflected a natural variation in out-of-season virus circulation, which was amplified by increased laboratory testing.