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1. Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery

Author: Tong Qiu, Robert Andrus, Marie-Claire Aravena, Davide Ascoli, Yves Bergeron, Roberta Berretti, Daniel Berveiller, Michal Bogdziewicz, Thomas Boivin, Raul Bonal, Don C. Bragg, Thomas Caignard, Rafael Calama, J. Julio Camarero, Chia-Hao Chang-Yang, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Benoit Courbaud, Francois Courbet, Thomas Curt, Adrian J. Das, Evangelia Daskalakou, Hendrik Davi, Nicolas Delpierre, Sylvain Delzon, Michael Dietze, Sergio Donoso Calderon, Laurent Dormont, Josep Espelta, Timothy J. Fahey, William Farfan-Rios, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Georg Gratzer, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Andrew Hacket-Pain, Arndt Hampe, Qingmin Han, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, Kazuhiko Hoshizaki, Ines Ibanez, Jill F. Johnstone, Valentin Journé, Daisuke Kabeya, Christopher L. Kilner, Thomas Kitzberger, Johannes M. H. Knops, Richard K. Kobe, Georges Kunstler, Jonathan G. A. Lageard, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Mateusz Ledwon, Francois Lefevre, Theodor Leininger, Jean-Marc Limousin, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Eliot J. B. McIntire, Christopher M. Moore, Emily Moran, Renzo Motta, Jonathan A. Myers, Thomas A. Nagel, Kyotaro Noguchi, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Robert Parmenter, Ian S. Pearse, Ignacio M. Perez-Ramos, Lukasz Piechnik, John Poulsen, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, Francisco Rodriguez-Sanchez, Javier D. Sanguinetti, C. Lane Scher, William H. Schlesinger, Harald Schmidt Van Marle, Barbara Seget, Shubhi Sharma, Miles Silman, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Jacob N. Straub, I-Fang Sun, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Peter A. Thomas, Maria Uriarte, Giorgio Vacchiano, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, Boyd Wright, S. Joseph Wright, Kai Zhu, Jess K. Zimmerman, Roman Zlotin, Magdalena Zywiec, and James S. Clark
Subjects: Science
Abstract: The relationships that control seed production in trees are key to understand evolutionary pressures that have shaped forests. A global synthesis of fecundity data reveals that while seed production is not constrained by a strict size-number trade-off, it is influenced by taxonomy and nutrient allocation.
Published: 2022
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2. Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Author: James S. Clark, Robert Andrus, Melaine Aubry-Kientz, Yves Bergeron, Michal Bogdziewicz, Don C. Bragg, Dale Brockway, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Susan Cohen, Benoit Courbaud, Robert Daley, Adrian J. Das, Michael Dietze, Timothy J. Fahey, Istem Fer, Jerry F. Franklin, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Janneke HilleRisLambers, Ines Ibanez, Jill Johnstone, Christopher L. Kilner, Johannes Knops, Walter D. Koenig, Georges Kunstler, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Kristin L. Legg, Jordan Luongo, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Eliot J. B. McIntire, Yassine Messaoud, Christopher M. Moore, Emily Moran, Jonathan A. Myers, Orrin B. Myers, Chase Nunez, Robert Parmenter, Sam Pearse, Scott Pearson, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Ethan Ready, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, C. Lane Scher, William H. Schlesinger, Amanda M. Schwantes, Erin Shanahan, Shubhi Sharma, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, Kai Zhu, and Roman Zlotin
Subjects: Science
Abstract: Disentangling the various pathways by which climate change may drive community shifts in real-world ecosystems is challenging. Here the authors apply a trend attribution approach to a large dataset from the MASTIF database to assess the contribution of direct and indirect effects of climate on tree fecundity in North America, finding that the latter dominate trends by affecting tree growth and size and thereby fecundity.
Published: 2021
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3. Reproductive maturity and cone abundance vary with tree size and stand basal area for two widely distributed conifers

Author: Robert A. Andrus, Brian J. Harvey, Ashley Hoffman, and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: Abies lasiocarpa, Colorado Front Range, cone production, conifer reproduction, mixed model, Picea engelmannii, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Abstract Understanding potential limitations to tree regeneration is essential as rates of tree mortality increase in response to direct (extreme drought) and indirect (bark beetle outbreaks, wildfire) effects of a warming climate. Seed availability is increasingly recognized as an important limitation for tree regeneration. High variability in seed cone production is a trait common among many northern temperate conifers, but few studies examine the determinants of individual tree cone production and how they vary with stand structure. In subalpine forests in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, we monitored >1600 Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) and Abies lasiocarpa (subalpine fir) trees for cone presence (an indicator of reproductive maturity) and a subset of those trees for cone abundance (an indicator of seed production) from 2016 to 2018. We constructed mixed models to test how individual tree cone presence and cone abundance were affected by tree size and age as well as forest attributes at the neighborhood‐ and stand‐scales. The probability of cone presence and cone abundance increased with tree size and age for A. lasiocarpa and P. engelmannii. The youngest ages of trees with cones present were more than 100 yr later for individuals in high basal area (BA) stands (>65 m2/ha) relative to low BA stands (
Published: 2020
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4. Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome

Author: Andreas Sommerfeld, Cornelius Senf, Brian Buma, Anthony W. D’Amato, Tiphaine Després, Ignacio Díaz-Hormazábal, Shawn Fraver, Lee E. Frelich, Álvaro G. Gutiérrez, Sarah J. Hart, Brian J. Harvey, Hong S. He, Tomáš Hlásny, Andrés Holz, Thomas Kitzberger, Dominik Kulakowski, David Lindenmayer, Akira S. Mori, Jörg Müller, Juan Paritsis, George L. W. Perry, Scott L. Stephens, Miroslav Svoboda, Monica G. Turner, Thomas T. Veblen, and Rupert Seidl
Subjects: Science
Abstract: Climate change may impact forest disturbances, though local variability is high. Here, Sommerfeld et al. show that disturbance patterns across the temperate biome vary with agents and tree traits, yet large disturbances are consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions.
Published: 2018
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5. Climate, Environment, and Disturbance History Govern Resilience of Western North American Forests

Author: Paul F. Hessburg, Carol L. Miller, Sean A. Parks, Nicholas A. Povak, Alan H. Taylor, Philip E. Higuera, Susan J. Prichard, Malcolm P. North, Brandon M. Collins, Matthew D. Hurteau, Andrew J. Larson, Craig D. Allen, Scott L. Stephens, Hiram Rivera-Huerta, Camille S. Stevens-Rumann, Lori D. Daniels, Ze'ev Gedalof, Robert W. Gray, Van R. Kane, Derek J. Churchill, R. Keala Hagmann, Thomas A. Spies, C. Alina Cansler, R. Travis Belote, Thomas T. Veblen, Mike A. Battaglia, Chad Hoffman, Carl N. Skinner, Hugh D. Safford, and R. Brion Salter
Subjects: resistance, meta-stability, climatic forcing, persistence, sustainability, self-organization, Evolution, QH359-425, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.
Published: 2019
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6. Author Correction: Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Author: James S. Clark, Robert Andrus, Melaine Aubry-Kientz, Yves Bergeron, Michal Bogdziewicz, Don C. Bragg, Dale Brockway, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Susan Cohen, Benoit Courbaud, Robert Daley, Adrian J. Das, Michael Dietze, Timothy J. Fahey, Istem Fer, Jerry F. Franklin, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Janneke HilleRisLambers, Ines Ibanez, Jill Johnstone, Christopher L. Kilner, Johannes Knops, Walter D. Koenig, Georges Kunstler, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Kristin L. Legg, Jordan Luongo, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Eliot J. B. McIntire, Yassine Messaoud, Christopher M. Moore, Emily Moran, Jonathan A. Myers, Orrin B. Myers, Chase Nunez, Robert Parmenter, Sam Pearse, Scott Pearson, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Ethan Ready, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, C. Lane Scher, William H. Schlesinger, Amanda M. Schwantes, Erin Shanahan, Shubhi Sharma, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, Kai Zhu, and Roman Zlotin
Subjects: Science
Abstract: A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22025-2
Published: 2021
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7. Effects of Bark Beetle Outbreaks on Forest Landscape Pattern in the Southern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

Author: Kyle C. Rodman, Robert A. Andrus, Cori L. Butkiewicz, Teresa B. Chapman, Nathan S. Gill, Brian J. Harvey, Dominik Kulakowski, Niko J. Tutland, Thomas T. Veblen, and Sarah J. Hart
Subjects: biotic disturbances, Dendroctonus, disturbance severity, Dryocoetes, landsat time series, patch size, Science
Abstract: Since the late 1990s, extensive outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) have affected coniferous forests throughout Europe and North America, driving changes in carbon storage, wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, and water resource provisioning. Remote sensing is a crucial tool for quantifying the effects of these disturbances across broad landscapes. In particular, Landsat time series (LTS) are increasingly used to characterize outbreak dynamics, including the presence and severity of bark beetle-caused tree mortality, though broad-scale LTS-based maps are rarely informed by detailed field validation. Here we used spatial and temporal information from LTS products, in combination with extensive field data and Random Forest (RF) models, to develop 30-m maps of the presence (i.e., any occurrence) and severity (i.e., cumulative percent basal area mortality) of beetle-caused tree mortality 1997–2019 in subalpine forests throughout the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Using resultant maps, we also quantified spatial patterns of cumulative tree mortality throughout the region, an important yet poorly understood concept in beetle-affected forests. RF models using LTS products to predict presence and severity performed well, with 80.3% correctly classified (Kappa = 0.61) and R2 = 0.68 (RMSE = 17.3), respectively. We found that ≥10,256 km2 of subalpine forest area (39.5% of the study area) was affected by bark beetles and 19.3% of the study area experienced ≥70% tree mortality over the twenty-three year period. Variograms indicated that severity was autocorrelated at scales < 250 km. Interestingly, cumulative patch-size distributions showed that areas with a near-total loss of the overstory canopy (i.e., ≥90% mortality) were relatively small (2) and isolated throughout the study area. Our findings help to inform an understanding of the variable effects of bark beetle outbreaks across complex forested regions and provide insight into patterns of disturbance legacies, landscape connectivity, and susceptibility to future disturbance.
Published: 2021
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8. Field-Validated Burn-Severity Mapping in North Patagonian Forests

Author: María Guadalupe Franco, Ignacio A. Mundo, and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: wildfire, araucaria araucana, landsat 8 oli, normalized burn ratio, normalized difference vegetation index, char soil index, mid-infrared burned index, classification thresholds, Science
Abstract: Burn severity, which can be reliably estimated by validated spectral indices, is a key element for understanding ecosystem dynamics and informing management strategies. However, in North Patagonian forests, where wildfires are a major disturbance agent, studies aimed at the field validation of spectral indices of burn severity are scarce. The aim of this work was to develop a field validated methodology for burn-severity mapping by studying two large fires that burned in the summer of 2013−2014 in forests of Araucaria araucana and other tree species. We explored the relation between widely used spectral indices and a field burn-severity index, and we evaluated index performance by examining index sensitivity in discriminating burn-severity classes in different vegetation types. For those indices that proved to be suitable, we adjusted the class thresholds and constructed confusion matrices to assess their accuracy. Burn severity maps of the studied fires were generated using the two most accurate methods and were compared to evaluate their level of agreement. Our results confirm that reliable burn severity estimates can be derived from spectral indices for these forests. Two severity indices, the delta normalized burn ratio (dNBR) and delta normalized difference vegetation index (dNDVI), were highly related to the fire-induced changes observed in the field, but the strength of these associations varied across the five different vegetation types defined by tree heights and tree and tall shrub species regeneration strategies. The thresholds proposed in this study for these indices generated classifications with global accuracies of 82% and Kappa indices of 70%. Both the dNBR and dNDVI classification approaches were more accurate in detecting high severity, but to a lesser degree for detecting low severity burns. Moderate severity was poorly classified, with producer and user errors reaching 50%. These constraints, along with detected differences in separability, need to be considered when interpreting burn severity maps generated using these methods.
Published: 2020
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9. Limited conifer regeneration following wildfires in dry ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range

Author: Monica T. Rother and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: climate change, Colorado Front Range, conifer regeneration, Douglas‐fir, ecotone, fire severity, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Abstract In recent years, increased wildfire activity and climate change have raised concern among scientists and land managers regarding current and future vegetation patterns in post‐burn landscapes. We surveyed conifer regeneration 8–15 years after fire in six burn areas in the lower montane zone of the Colorado Front Range. We sampled across a broad range of elevations, aspects, and fire severities and found that densities of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) are generally low, although areas of abundant regeneration do occur. Conifer regeneration was most limited in xeric settings, including more southerly aspects and elevations closer to lower treeline. Additionally, fewer juvenile conifers occurred at greater distances from mature, live trees indicating that seed source as well as topoclimatic setting limits post‐fire tree regeneration. Projecting the extent of future forest cover is uncertain due to the possibility of future pulses of tree establishment and unknown depletion rates of existing seedling populations. However, current patterns of post‐fire seedling establishment suggest that vegetation composition and structure may differ notably from historic patterns and that lower density stands and even non‐forested communities may persist in some areas of these burns long after fire, especially in xeric settings or where no nearby seed source remains.
Published: 2016
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10. Habitat distribution modeling reveals vegetation flammability and land use as drivers of wildfire in SW Patagonia

Author: Juan Paritsis, Andrés Holz, Thomas T. Veblen, and Thomas Kitzberger
Subjects: human-ignition, Landsat, MaxEnt, Nothofagus, shrubland, spatial fire prediction, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Despite important recent advances in modeling current and future global fire activity in relation to biophysical predictors there remain important uncertainties about finer‐scale spatial heterogeneity of fire and especially about human influences which are typically assessed at coarse‐spatial resolutions. The purpose of the current study is to quantify the influence of biophysical and anthropogenic variables on the spatial distribution of wildfire activity between 1984 and 2010 over an extensive southern Patagonian‐Andean region from ca. 43° to 53° S extending from coastal rainforests to xeric woodland and steppe. We used satellite imagery to map all detectable fires >5 ha from 1984 to 2010 in four study areas (each of 13,100 to 36,635 km2) and field checked 65 of these burns for accuracy of burned vegetation class and fire perimeters. Then, we used the MaxEnt modeling technique to assess the relationships of wildfire distributions to biophysical and human environmental variables in each of the four regions. The 232 fires >5 ha mapped in the four study areas accounted for an area of 1,314 km2 indicating that at least 1.8% of the total area burned between 1984 and 2010. In general, areas with intermediate productivity levels (e.g., shrublands) have higher fire probability compared with areas of low and high productivity levels, such as steppe and wet forests, respectively. There is a marked contrast in the flammability of broad vegetation classes in determining fire activity at a regional scale, as well as a strong spatial relationship of wildfires to anthropogenic variables. The juxtaposition of fire‐resistant tall forests with fire‐prone shrublands and woodlands creates the potential for positive feedbacks from human‐set fires to gradually increase the flammability of extensive landscapes through repeated burning. Distance to roads and settlements were also strong predictors, suggesting that fire in all regions is ignition‐limited. However, these anthropogenic predictors influenced probability of fire differently among study regions depending on their main land‐use practices and their past and present socioeconomic contexts.
Published: 2013
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11. Efectos combinados del fuego y el ganado en matorrales y bosques del noroeste patagónico

Author: Melisa Blackhall, Estela Raffaele, and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Ecología Austral, 25:1-10 (2015) En el noroeste patagónico, dos de los disturbios de mayor influencia sobre los paisajes y comunidades son el fuego y la herbivoría de ungulados introducidos. Existe una larga historia regional del fuego, pero la reiteración de incendios seguidos de intenso pastoreo constituye un nuevo tipo de régimen de disturbio en este paisaje. Nuestro objetivo fue analizar distintas condiciones micro-ambientales y parámetros de la vegetación en sitios afectados por la combinación de ambos disturbios. Dentro del Parque Nacional Nahuel Huapi, estudiamos 17 sitios bajo la influencia del fuego y el ganado vacuno: sitios no quemados (>50 años) o recientemente quemados (
Published: 2015
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12. Climate Drives Episodic Conifer Establishment after Fire in Dry Ponderosa Pine Forests of the Colorado Front Range, USA

Author: Monica T. Rother and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: climate variability, regeneration dynamics, resilience, ponderosa pine, tree establishment, wildfire, tree rings, Colorado Front Range, dendrochronology, climate change, Plant ecology, QK900-989
Abstract: In recent years, warming climate and increased fire activity have raised concern about post-fire recovery of western U.S. forests. We assessed relationships between climate variability and tree establishment after fire in dry ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range. We harvested and aged over 400 post-fire juvenile ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) trees using an improved tree-ring based approach that yielded annually-resolved dates and then assessed relationships between climate variability and pulses of tree establishment. We found that tree establishment was largely concentrated in years of above-average moisture availability in the growing season, including higher amounts of precipitation and more positive values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Under continued climate change, drier conditions associated with warming temperatures may limit forest recovery after fire, which could result in lower stand densities or shifts to non-forested vegetation in some areas.
Published: 2017
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13. Individual canopy tree species maps for the National Ecological Observatory Network.

Author: Ben G Weinstein, Sergio Marconi, Alina Zare, Stephanie A Bohlman, Aditya Singh, Sarah J Graves, Lukas Magee, Daniel J Johnson, Sydne Record, Vanessa E Rubio, Nathan G Swenson, Philip Townsend, Thomas T Veblen, Robert A Andrus, and Ethan P White
Subjects: Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract: The ecology of forest ecosystems depends on the composition of trees. Capturing fine-grained information on individual trees at broad scales provides a unique perspective on forest ecosystems, forest restoration, and responses to disturbance. Individual tree data at wide extents promises to increase the scale of forest analysis, biogeographic research, and ecosystem monitoring without losing details on individual species composition and abundance. Computer vision using deep neural networks can convert raw sensor data into predictions of individual canopy tree species through labeled data collected by field researchers. Using over 40,000 individual tree stems as training data, we create landscape-level species predictions for over 100 million individual trees across 24 sites in the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). Using hierarchical multi-temporal models fine-tuned for each geographic area, we produce open-source data available as 1 km2 shapefiles with individual tree species prediction, as well as crown location, crown area, and height of 81 canopy tree species. Site-specific models had an average performance of 79% accuracy covering an average of 6 species per site, ranging from 3 to 15 species per site. All predictions are openly archived and have been uploaded to Google Earth Engine to benefit the ecology community and overlay with other remote sensing assets. We outline the potential utility and limitations of these data in ecology and computer vision research, as well as strategies for improving predictions using targeted data sampling.
Published: 2024
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14. Declines in lowâelevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in highâelevation populations with warming

Author: Conlisk, Erin, Cristina Castanha, Matthew J. Germino, Thomas T. Veblen, Jeremy M. Smith, and Lara M. Kueppers
Subjects: climate change, conifer, demographic model, range shift, subalpine forest, time-lag, Tree line, Ecology, Environmental Sciences, Biological Sciences, Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences
Abstract: Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climateâsensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from longâterm forest surveys, we explored whether the climateâsensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, highâelevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warmingâdriven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the lowâelevation, âwarm edgeâ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the highâelevation, âcool edgeâ. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations â especially in the presence of increased moisture â and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in highâelevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.
Published: 2017

15. North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Author: Shubhi Sharma, Robert Andrus, Yves Bergeron, Michal Bogdziewicz, Don C. Bragg, Dale Brockway, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Benoit Courbaud, Adrian J. Das, Michael Dietze, Timothy J. Fahey, Jerry F. Franklin, Gregory S. Gilbert, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, Ines Ibanez, Jill F. Johnstone, Christopher L. Kilner, Johannes M. H. Knops, Walter D. Koenig, Georges Kunstler, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Diana Macias, Emily Moran, Jonathan A. Myers, Robert Parmenter, Ian S. Pearse, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, C. Lane Scher, William H. Schlesinger, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, Christopher W. Woodall, Roman Zlotin, and James S. Clark
Published: 2022
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16. Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence

Author: Tong Qiu, Marie-Claire Aravena, Robert Andrus, Davide Ascoli, Yves Bergeron, Roberta Berretti, Michal Bogdziewicz, Thomas Boivin, Raul Bonal, Thomas Caignard, Rafael Calama, J. Julio Camarero, Connie J. Clark, Benoit Courbaud, Sylvain Delzon, Sergio Donoso Calderon, William Farfan-Rios, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, Kazuhiko Hoshizaki, Ines Ibanez, Valentin Journé, Christopher L. Kilner, Richard K. Kobe, Walter D. Koenig, Georges Kunstler, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Mateusz Ledwon, James A. Lutz, Renzo Motta, Jonathan A. Myers, Thomas A. Nagel, Chase L. Nuñez, Ian S. Pearse, Łukasz Piechnik, John R. Poulsen, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, C. Lane Scher, Harald Schmidt Van Marle, Barbara Seget, Shubhi Sharma, Miles Silman, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Maria Uriarte, Giorgio Vacchiano, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, S. Joseph Wright, Kai Zhu, Jess K. Zimmerman, Magdalena Żywiec, and James S. Clark
Published: 2021
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17. Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration

Author: Kimberley T. Davis, Solomon Z. Dobrowski, Philip E. Higuera, Zachary A. Holden, Thomas T. Veblen, Monica T. Rother, Sean A. Parks, Anna Sala, and Marco P. Maneta
Published: 2019
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18. Fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts in ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests of the western United States

Author: Kimberley T Davis, Philip E Higuera, Solomon Z Dobrowski, Sean A Parks, John T Abatzoglou, Monica T Rother, and Thomas T Veblen
Subjects: Douglas-fir, fire-catalyzed, ponderosa pine, post-fire, tree regeneration, vegetation transition, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: Increased wildfire activity combined with warm and dry post-fire conditions may undermine the mechanisms maintaining forest resilience to wildfires, potentially causing ecosystem transitions, or fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts. Stand-replacing fire is especially likely to catalyze vegetation shifts expected from climate change, by killing mature trees that are less sensitive to climate than juveniles. To understand the vulnerability of forests to fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts it is critical to identify both where fires will burn with stand-replacing severity and where climate conditions limit seedling recruitment. We used an extensive dendrochronological dataset to model the influence of seasonal climate on post-fire recruitment probability for ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir. We applied this model to project annual recruitment probability in the US intermountain west under contemporary and future climate conditions, which we compared to modeled probability of stand-replacing fire. We categorized areas as ‘vulnerable to fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts,’ if they were likely to burn at stand-replacing severity, if a fire were to occur, and had post-fire climate conditions unsuitable for tree recruitment. Climate suitability for recruitment declined over time in all ecoregions: 21% and 15% of the range of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir, respectively, had climate conditions unsuitable for recruitment in the 1980s, whereas these values increased to 61% (ponderosa pine) and 34% (Douglas-fir) for the future climate scenario. Less area was vulnerable to fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts, but these values also increased over time, from 6% and 4% of the range of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir in the 1980s, to 16% (ponderosa pine) and 10% (Douglas-fir) under the future climate scenario. Southern ecoregions had considerably higher vulnerability to fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts than northern ecoregions. Overall, our results suggest that the combination of climate warming and an increase in wildfire activity may substantially impact species distributions through fire-catalyzed vegetation shifts.
Published: 2020
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19. Still standing: Recent patterns of post-fire conifer refugia in ponderosa pine-dominated forests of the Colorado Front Range.

Author: Teresa B Chapman, Tania Schoennagel, Thomas T Veblen, and Kyle C Rodman
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: Forested fire refugia (trees that survive fires) are important disturbance legacies that provide seed sources for post-fire regeneration. Conifer regeneration has been limited following some recent western fires, particularly in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. However, the extent, characteristics, and predictability of ponderosa pine fire refugia are largely unknown. Within 23 fires in ponderosa pine-dominated forests of the Colorado Front Range (1996-2013), we evaluated the spatial characteristics and predictability of refugia: first using Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) burn severity metrics, then using landscape variables (topography, weather, anthropogenic factors, and pre-fire forest cover). Using 1-m resolution aerial imagery, we created a binary variable of post-fire conifer presence ('Conifer Refugia') and absence ('Conifer Absence') within 30-m grid cells. We found that maximum patch size of Conifer Absence was positively correlated with fire size, and 38% of the burned area was ≥ 50m from a conifer seed source, revealing a management challenge as fire sizes increase with warming further limiting conifer recovery. In predicting Conifer Refugia with two MTBS-produced databases, thematic burn severity classes (TBSC) and continuous Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (RdNBR) values, Conifer Absence was high in previously forested areas of Low and Moderate burn severity classes in TBSC. RdNBR more accurately identified post-fire conifer survivorship. In predicting Conifer Refugia with landscape variables, Conifer Refugia were less likely during burn days with high maximum temperatures: while Conifer Refugia were more likely on moister soils and closer to higher order streams, homes, and roads; and on less rugged, valley topography. Importantly, pre-fire forest canopy cover was not strongly associated with Conifer Refugia. This study further informs forest management by mapping post-fire patches lacking conifer seed sources, validating the use of RdNBR for fire refugia, and detecting abiotic and topographic variables that may promote conifer refugia.
Published: 2020
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20. Future dominance by quaking aspen expected following short‐interval, compounded disturbance interaction

Author: Robert A. Andrus, Sarah J. Hart, Niko Tutland, and Thomas T. Veblen
Published: 2021
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21. Rocky Mountain forests are poised to recover following bark beetle outbreaks but with altered composition

Author: Kyle C. Rodman, Robert A. Andrus, Amanda R. Carlson, Trevor A. Carter, Teresa B. Chapman, Jonathan D. Coop, Paula J. Fornwalt, Nathan S. Gill, Brian J. Harvey, Ashley E. Hoffman, Katharine C. Kelsey, Dominik Kulakowski, Daniel C. Laughlin, Jenna E. Morris, José F. Negrón, Katherine M. Nigro, Gregory S. Pappas, Miranda D. Redmond, Charles C. Rhoades, Monique E. Rocca, Zoe H. Schapira, Jason S. Sibold, Camille S. Stevens‐Rumann, Thomas T. Veblen, Jianmin Wang, Xiaoyang Zhang, and Sarah J. Hart
Subjects: Ecology, Plant Science, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Published: 2022

22. Forest recovery following synchronous outbreaks of spruce and western balsam bark beetle is slowed by ungulate browsing

Author: Robert A. Andrus, Sarah J. Hart, and Thomas T. Veblen
Published: 2020
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23. Moisture availability limits subalpine tree establishment

Author: Robert A. Andrus, Brian J. Harvey, Kyle C. Rodman, Sarah J. Hart, and Thomas T. Veblen
Published: 2018
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24. Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees

Author: Michal Bogdziewicz, Marie‐Claire Aravena Acuña, Robert Andrus, Davide Ascoli, Yves Bergeron, Daniel Brveiller, Thomas Boivin, Raul Bonal, Thomas Caignard, Maxime Cailleret, Rafael Calama, Sergio Donoso Calderon, J. Julio Camarero, Chia‐Hao Chang‐Yang, Jerome Chave, Francesco Chianucci, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Benoit Courbaud, Andrea Cutini, Thomas Curt, Adrian J. Das, Hendrik Davi, Nicolas Delpierre, Sylvain Delzon, Michael Dietze, Laurent Dormont, William Farfan‐Rios, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Georg Gratzer, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Arthur Guignabert, Qinfeng Guo, Andrew Hacket‐Pain, Arndt Hampe, Qingmin Han, Kazuhiko Hoshizaki, Ines Ibanez, Jill F. Johnstone, Valentin Journé, Thomas Kitzberger, Johannes M. H. Knops, Georges Kunstler, Richard Kobe, Jonathan G. A. Lageard, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Mateusz Ledwon, Theodor Leininger, Jean‐Marc Limousin, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Anders Marell, Eliot J. B. McIntire, Emily Moran, Renzo Motta, Jonathan A. Myers, Thomas A. Nagel, Shoji Naoe, Mahoko Noguchi, Michio Oguro, Hiroko Kurokawa, Jean‐Marc Ourcival, Robert Parmenter, Ignacio M. Perez‐Ramos, Lukasz Piechnik, Tomasz Podgórski, John Poulsen, Tong Qiu, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, Pavel Šamonil, Jan Holik, C. Lane Scher, Harald Schmidt Van Marle, Barbara Seget, Mitsue Shibata, Shubhi Sharma, Miles Silman, Michael A. Steele, Jacob N. Straub, I‐Fang Sun, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Peter A. Thomas, Maria Uriarte, Giorgio Vacchiano, Thomas T. Veblen, Boyd Wright, S. Joseph Wright, Thomas G. Whitham, Kai Zhu, Jess K. Zimmerman, Magdalna Zywiec, James S. Clark, National Science Foundation (US), Belmont Forum, NASA Astrobiology Institute (US), Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, National Science Centre (Poland), Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange, US Forest Service, Narodowe Centrum Nauki (Poland), Bogdziewicz, Michal, Aravena, Marie-Claire, Andrus, Robert, Ascoli, Davide, Bergeron, Yves, Bonal, Raul, Caignard, Thomas, Calama, Rafael, Calderon, Sergio Donoso, Camarero, J Julio, Chang-Yang, Chia-Hao, Cleavitt, Natalie L, Courbaud, Benoit, Curt, Thomas, Davi, Hendrik, Delpierre, Nicolas, Delzon, Sylvain, Dietze, Michael, Dormont, Laurent, Farfan-Rios, William, Gehring, Catherine, Gilbert, Gregory S., Gratzer, Georg, Greenberg, Cathryn H., Guignabert, Arthur, Guo,Qinfeng, Hacket-Pain, Andrew, Hampe, Arndt, Han, Qingmin, Hoshizaki, Kazuhiko, Ibáñez, Inés, Johnstone, Jill F., Journé, Valentin, Kitzberger, Thomas, Knops, Johannes M. H., Kunstler, Georges, Kobe, Richard K., Lageard, Jonathan G. A., LaMontagne, Jalene M., Ledwon, Mateusz, Leininger, Theodor, Limousin, Jean-Marc, Lutz, James A., Moran, Emily, Motta, Renzo, Myers, Jonathan A., Nagel, Thomas A., Shoji, N., Michio Oguro, Mahoko Noguchi, Ourcival, Jean-Marc, Parmenter, Robert, Perez-Ramos, Ignacio M., Piechnik, Lukasz, Poulsen, John, Qiu, Tong, Redmond, Miranda D., Reid, Chantal D., Rodman, Kyle C., Scher, C. Lane, Seget, Barbara, Silman, Miles, Sun, I-Fang, Sutton, Samantha, Swenson, Jennifer J., Thomas, Peter A., Uriarte, Maria, Vacchiano, Giorgio, Veblen, Thomas T., Wright, Boyd, Wright, S. Joseph, Zhu, Kai, Zimmerman, Jess K., Zywiec, Magdalena, Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas [Ushuaia] (CADIC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET), Ecosystèmes forestiers (UR EFNO), Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin (UNITO), Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), AgroParisTech, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM), Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid] (UCM), Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés (BioGeCo), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Universidad de Chili / Departamento de Ciencias de la Computation, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologìa = Pyrenean Institute of Ecology [Zaragoza] (IPE - CSIC), National Kaohsiung Marine University [Taïwan] (NKMU), Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Computer Science [Ithaca], Cornell University [New York], Centro di Viticoltura ed Enologia [CREA], Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria = Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), California Sciences Institute, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Boston University [Boston] (BU), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Saint Louis University (SLU), Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], University of California (UC), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ] (USDA), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), University of Liverpool, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Akita University, University of Michigan [Dearborn], University of Michigan System, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University [Durham], Alabama Space Grant ConsortiumAIST16-0052AIST18-0063Belmont Forum1854976Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange (NAWA)PPN/BEK/2020/1/00009/U/00001National Science Centre, Poland2019/35/D/NZ8/00050National Science Foundation (NSF)DEB- 1754443, and ANR-18-MPGA-0004,FORBIC,Prévision du changement de la biodiversité(2018)
Subjects: Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], fecundity, functional traits, leaf economics, life history strategies, size syndrome, tree recruitment, Life history strategie, Settore AGR/05 - Assestamento Forestale e Selvicoltura, Tree recruitmen, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, fecundity functional traits leaf economics life history strategies size syndrome, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract: 12 páginas.- 4 figuras.- referencias.- Additional supporting information can be found online in the Supporting Information section at the end of this article.- Full Access in https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geb.13652, Aim Our understanding of the mechanisms that maintain forest diversity under changing climate can benefit from knowledge about traits that are closely linked to fitness. We tested whether the link between traits and seed number and seed size is consistent with two hypotheses, termed the leaf economics spectrum and the plant size syndrome, or whether reproduction represents an independent dimension related to a seed size–seed number trade-off. Location Most of the data come from Europe, North and Central America and East Asia. A minority of the data come from South America, Africa and Australia. Time period 1960–2022. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods We gathered 12 million observations of the number of seeds produced in 784 tree species. We estimated the number of seeds produced by individual trees and scaled it up to the species level. Next, we used principal components analysis and generalized joint attribute modelling (GJAM) to map seed number and size on the tree traits spectrum. Results Incorporating seed size and number into trait analysis while controlling for environment and phylogeny with GJAM exposes relationships in trees that might otherwise remain hidden. Production of the large total biomass of seeds [product of seed number and seed size; hereafter, species seed productivity (SSP)] is associated with high leaf area, low foliar nitrogen, low specific leaf area (SLA) and dense wood. Production of high seed numbers is associated with small seeds produced by nutrient-demanding species with softwood, small leaves and high SLA. Trait covariation is consistent with opposing strategies: one fast-growing, early successional, with high dispersal, and the other slow-growing, stress-tolerant, that recruit in shaded conditions. Main conclusions Earth system models currently assume that reproductive allocation is indifferent among plant functional types. Easily measurable seed size is a strong predictor of the seed number and species seed productivity. The connection of SSP with the functional traits can form the first basis of improved fecundity prediction across global forests., The project has been funded by grants to J.S.C. from the National Science Foundation, most re-cently DEB-1754443, and by the Belmont Forum (1854976), NASA (AIST16-0052 and AIST18-0063) and the Programme d'Investissement d'Avenir under project FORBIC (18-MPGA-0004; Make Our Planet Great Again). Jerry Franklin's data remain acces-sible through NSF LTER DEB-1440409. Data from Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) were funded through NSF-LTER. Puerto Rico data were funded by NSF grants, most recently DEB 0963447 and LTREB 11222325. Data from the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group were funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and NSF 727 LTREB 1754647. M.B. was supported by grant no. 2019/35/D/NZ8/00050 from the (Polish) National Science Centre and by Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange Bekker programme PPN/BEK/2020/1/00009/U/00001. Research by the USDA Forest Service and the USGS was funded by these agencies. Any use of trade, firm or product names does not imply endorsement by the US Government. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply en -dorsement by the U.S. Government
Published: 2023

25. Summer and winter drought drive the initiation and spread of spruce beetle outbreak

Author: Sarah J. Hart, Thomas T. Veblen, Dominik Schneider, and Noah P. Molotch
Published: 2017
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26. Fire effects on diversity patterns of the understory communities of Araucaria-Nothofagus forests

Author: Paola Arroyo-Vargas, Andres Holz, and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: Ecology, Plant Science
Published: 2022

27. Author response for 'Rocky Mountain forests are poised to recover following bark beetle outbreaks, but with altered composition'

Author: null Kyle C. Rodman, null Robert A. Andrus, null Amanda R. Carlson, null Trevor A. Carter, null Teresa B. Chapman, null Jonathan D. Coop, null Paula J. Fornwalt, null Nathan S. Gill, null Brian J. Harvey, null Ashley E. Hoffman, null Katharine C. Kelsey, null Dominik Kulakowski, null Daniel C. Laughlin, null Jenna E. Morris, null José F. Negrón, null Katherine M. Nigro, null Gregory S. Pappas, null Miranda D. Redmond, null Charles C. Rhoades, null Monique E. Rocca, null Zoe H. Schapira, null Jason S. Sibold, null Camille S. Stevens‐Rumann, null Thomas T. Veblen, null Jianmin Wang, null Xiaoyang Zhang, and null Sarah J. Hart
Published: 2022

28. Species Climatic Suitability Explains Insect–Host Dynamics in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA

Author: Sarah J. Hart, Thomas T. Veblen, Enric Batllori, Kyle C. Rodman, Robert A. Andrus, Francisco Lloret, and Luciana Jaime
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Dendroctonus rufipennis, biology, Host (biology), media_common.quotation_subject, Species distribution, Extreme events, Outbreak, Insect, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Geography, Environmental Chemistry, Temporal scales, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common
Abstract: Recent extreme events of drought and heat have been associated with insect-driven tree mortality. However, there is substantial uncertainty about the impact of climate variability and extreme climatic episodes on insect–host dynamics, especially over species biogeographical ranges. Here, we use climatic suitability indices derived from species distribution models to analyze the spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak dynamics in spruce-fir forests across the Southern Rocky Mountains (USA) during a warm and dry episode (2000–2013). We estimated the historical climatic suitability of the host tree (1969–1998), its inter-annual variability, and the climatic suitability during the 2000–2013 episode for both beetle and host tree. Overall, outbreak was more likely to occur in host tree populations inhabiting areas with historically suitable climatic conditions that were also characterized by loss of suitability during the episode. Specifically, the outbreak initiation was located in areas with suitable climatic conditions for the beetle and high historical suitability for the host. However, the year-to-year analysis revealed that low–moderate amounts of outbreak initiation and spread were also determined by high host historical climatic suitability, with high historical inter-annual variability, and a modest reduction of suitability during the episode. Years with high amounts of outbreak initiation and spread mostly occurred in dense forests with large trees and were promoted by suitable climate conditions for the beetle. This study highlights the importance of considering the climatic suitability of the insect–host system to understand and anticipate outbreak dynamics at different temporal scales.
Published: 2021

29. Increasing rates of subalpine tree mortality linked to warmer and drier summers

Author: Robert A. Andrus, Brian J. Harvey, Rachel K. Chai, Kyle C. Rodman, and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: Tree (data structure), Long term learning, Geography, Ecology, Montane ecology, Climate change, Plant Science, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Published: 2021

30. Masting is shaped by tree-level attributes and stand structure, more than climate, in a Rocky Mountain conifer species

Author: Andreas P. Wion, Ian S. Pearse, Kyle C. Rodman, Thomas T. Veblen, and Miranda D. Redmond
Subjects: Forestry, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Nature and Landscape Conservation
Published: 2023

31. Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality

Author: Juan Carlos Linares, Yamila Sasal, Abdallah Bentouati, Miranda D. Redmond, C. John Burk, Joseph L. Ganey, Thomas T. Veblen, Francesco Ripullone, Christof Bigler, Lucía Galiano, Suzanne B. Marchetti, William R. L. Anderegg, Caroline Vincke, Ermias Aynekulu, J. Julio Camarero, Jeffrey M. Kane, Maria Laura Suarez, Andreas Rigling, Anna L. Jacobsen, Tuomas Aakala, Michael Michaelian, Enric Batllori, Francisco Lloret, R. B. Pratt, Roderick Fensham, Gabriel Sangüesa-Barreda, M. Lisa Floyd, Thomas Kitzberger, Albert Vilà-Cabrera, Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo, Sandra Saura-Mas, Devin P. Bendixsen, Ben J. Zeeman, George Matusick, Michele Colangelo, Patrick Gonzalez, Jonathan D. Coop, UCL - SST/ELI/ELIE - Environmental Sciences, Department of Forest Sciences, Boreal forest dynamics and biodiversity research group, and Forest Ecology and Management
Subjects: DYNAMICS, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biome, ved/biology.organism_classification_rank.species, Ecological succession, Woodland, Forests, FIRE, 01 natural sciences, Shrub, Forest dynamics, Trees, Ecosystem services, Drought-induced mortality, global tree mortality, Global tree mortality, RESEARCH FRONTIERS, Climate change, MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD, 4112 Forestry, Multidisciplinary, Ecology, food and beverages, Biodiversity, Biological Sciences, Droughts, Geography, Forest resilience, forest dynamics, Climate Change, drought-unduced motality, 010603 evolutionary biology, INDUCED TREE, Species Specificity, REGRESSION, MANAGEMENT, Dominance (ecology), VEGETATION SHIFTS, Ecosystem, forest resilience, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, ved/biology, RESILIENCE, 15. Life on land, 13. Climate action, drought-induced mortality
Abstract: Significance Forests are experiencing growing risks of drought-induced mortality in a warming world. Yet, ecosystem dynamics following drought mortality remain unknown, representing a major limitation to our understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change. We provide an emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories based on field indicators of forest dynamics. Replacement patterns following mortality indicate limited short-term persistence of predrought dominant tree species, highlighting the potential for major ecosystem reorganization in the coming decades. The great variability of the observed dynamics within and among species reinforces the primary influence of drought characteristics and ecosystem legacies, modulated by land use, management, and past disturbances, on ongoing drought-related species turnover and their potential implications for future forest biodiversity and ecosystem services., Forest vulnerability to drought is expected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, and drought-induced mortality and community dynamics following drought have major ecological and societal impacts. Here, we show that tree mortality concomitant with drought has led to short-term (mean 5 y, range 1 to 23 y after mortality) vegetation-type conversion in multiple biomes across the world (131 sites). Self-replacement of the dominant tree species was only prevalent in 21% of the examined cases and forests and woodlands shifted to nonwoody vegetation in 10% of them. The ultimate temporal persistence of such changes remains unknown but, given the key role of biological legacies in long-term ecological succession, this emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories highlights the potential for major ecosystem reorganization in the coming decades. Community changes were less pronounced under wetter postmortality conditions. Replacement was also influenced by management intensity, and postdrought shrub dominance was higher when pathogens acted as codrivers of tree mortality. Early change in community composition indicates that forests dominated by mesic species generally shifted toward more xeric communities, with replacing tree and shrub species exhibiting drier bioclimatic optima and distribution ranges. However, shifts toward more mesic communities also occurred and multiple pathways of forest replacement were observed for some species. Drought characteristics, species-specific environmental preferences, plant traits, and ecosystem legacies govern postdrought species turnover and subsequent ecological trajectories, with potential far-reaching implications for forest biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Published: 2020

32. Fire as a fundamental ecological process

Author: Brendan M. Rogers, Solny A. Adalsteinsson, Michael M. Loranty, Melissa L. Chipman, Erica Bigio, Jennifer B. Landesmann, Robert M. Scheller, Patrick J. Baker, Adam C. Watts, S. Yoshi Maezumi, Paulo M. Brando, Linda O. Mearns, Fernanda Santos, Jonathan Myers, Jennifer Roozeboom, Adam F. A. Pellegrini, Melinda D. Smith, Juli G. Pausas, Alan J. Tepley, J. Morgan Varner, Jennifer A. Schweitzer, Rebecca E. Hewitt, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Jeff A. Hatten, Raelene M. Crandall, Rosemary L. Sherriff, Philip E. Higuera, Neal J. Enright, Sharon M. Hermann, Lori D. Daniels, Max A. Moritz, Jennifer K. Balch, Jessica R. Miesel, Kevin G. Smith, Wendy S. Gross, Brian J. Harvey, Janice L. Coen, Kendra K. McLauchlan, Leda N. Kobziar, Hugh D. Safford, Thomas T. Veblen, Megan E. Cattau, Enric Batllori, William J. Platt, National Science Foundation (US), Pausas, J. G. [0000-0003-3533-5786], and Pausas, J. G.
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Ecology (disciplines), Climate, Population, Plant Science, Fuels, Wildfire, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Prescribed fire, Ecosystem, Fire ecology, Temporal scales, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Plant traits, education.field_of_study, Vegetation, Ecology, Fire regime, business.industry, Global warming, Environmental resource management, Earth System models, Geography, business, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: © 2020 The Authors., Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire‐dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above‐ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below‐ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. Synthesis: As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives., Support was provided by NSF‐DEB‐1743681 to K.K.M. and A.J.T. We thank Shalin Hai‐Jew for helpful discussion of the survey and qualitative methods.
Published: 2020

33. A changing climate is snuffing out post‐fire recovery in montane forests

Author: Monica T. Rother, Thomas Kolb, Kyle C. Rodman, Paula J. Fornwalt, Jessica R. Ouzts, Thomas T. Veblen, Michael Battaglia, Zachary A. Holden, and Marin E. Chambers
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Global warming, Vulnerability, Climate change, Terrain, 15. Life on land, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Vegetation response, 13. Climate action, Montane ecology, Environmental science, Ecosystem, Regeneration (ecology), Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract: Climate warming is increasing fire activity in many of Earth’s forested ecosystems. Because fire is a catalyst for change, investigation of post-fire vegetation response is critical to understanding the potential for future conversions from forest to non-forest vegetation types. We characterized the influences of climate and terrain on post-fire tree regeneration and assessed how these biophysical factors might shape future vulnerability to wildfire-driven forest conversion.
Published: 2020

34. A trait‐based approach to assessing resistance and resilience to wildfire in two iconic North American conifers

Author: Neal J. Enright, Joseph B. Fontaine, Thomas T. Veblen, Kyle C. Rodman, Robert A. Andrus, Andreas P. Wion, Miranda D. Redmond, and Angela D. Gonzalez
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Ecology, Resistance (ecology), Fire regime, media_common.quotation_subject, Plant Science, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Intraspecific competition, Evapotranspiration, Bark (sound), Psychological resilience, Vital rates, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 010606 plant biology & botany, media_common
Abstract: Ongoing changes in fire regimes have the potential to drive widespread shifts in Earth's vegetation. Plant traits and vital rates provide insight into vulnerability to fire‐driven vegetation shifts because they can be indicators of the ability of individuals to survive fire (resistance) and populations to persist (resilience) following fire. In 15 study sites spanning climatic gradients in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, we quantified variation in key traits and vital rates of two co‐occurring, widely distributed conifers (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex. P. Lawson & C. Lawson and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). We used mixed‐effects models to explain inter‐ and intraspecific variation in tree growth, survival, bark thickness and seed cone production, as a function of species, tree life stage (i.e. diameter, height and age), average climate, local competition and site conditions. Pinus ponderosa was predicted to survive low‐severity fire at a 23% earlier age than P. menziesii. Pinus ponderosa had thicker bark and more rapid juvenile height growth, traits conferring greater fire resistance. In contrast, P. menziesii was predicted to produce seed cones at a 28% earlier age than P. ponderosa. For both species, larger individuals were more likely to survive fire and to produce cones. For P. ponderosa, cone production increased where average actual evapotranspiration (AET) was higher and local competition was lower. More frequent cone production on productive sites with higher AET is an important and underappreciated mechanism that may help to explain greater resilience to fire in these areas. Synthesis. Our analyses indicated that many plant traits and vital rates related to fire differed between Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii, with trade‐offs between investment in traits that promote individual defence to fire and those that promote recolonization of disturbed sites. Future changes in fire regimes will act as a filter throughout North American forests, with our findings helping to infer which individuals and populations of two iconic species are most vulnerable to future change and offering a framework for future inquiry in other forests facing an uncertain future.
Published: 2020

35. Guidelines for including bamboos in tropical ecosystem monitoring

Author: Eduardo Ruiz-Sanchez, Débora Cristina Rother, Joseph W. Veldman, James W. Dalling, Lynn G. Clark, Cara A. Rockwell, Ximena Londoño, Juan Carlos Camargo García, Thomas T. Veblen, Belén Fadrique, Cecilia M. Prada, William Farfan-Rios, Francisca Ely, Kenneth J. Feeley, Lía Montti, Paul R. Gagnon, and Sonali Saha
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Gable, biology, Ecology, Coral, Miami, Bambusoideae, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Tropical ecology, FLORESTAS TROPICAIS, Ecosystem monitoring, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Fil: Fadrique, Belen. Department Of Biology, University Of Miami, Coral Gable; Estados Unidos
Published: 2020

36. Limits to reproduction and seed size-number tradeoffs that shape forest dominance and future recovery

Author: Tong Qiu, Robert Andrus, Marie-Claire Aravena, Davide Ascoli, Yves Bergeron, Roberta Berretti, Daniel Berveiller, Michal Bogdziewicz, Thomas Boivin, Raul Bonal, Don C. Bragg, Thomas Caignard, Rafael Calama, J. Julio Camarero, Chia-Hao Chang-Yang, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Benoit Courbaud, Francois Courbet, Thomas Curt, Adrian J. Das, Evangelia Daskalakou, Hendrik Davi, Nicolas Delpierre, Sylvain Delzon, Michael Dietze, Sergio Donoso Calderon, Laurent Dormont, Josep Espelta, Timothy J. Fahey, William Farfan-Rios, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Georg Gratzer, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Andrew Hacket-Pain, Arndt Hampe, Qingmin Han, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, Kazuhiko Hoshizaki, Ines Ibanez, Jill F. Johnstone, Valentin Journé, Daisuke Kabeya, Christopher L. Kilner, Thomas Kitzberger, Johannes M. H. Knops, Richard K. Kobe, Georges Kunstler, Jonathan G. A. Lageard, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Mateusz Ledwon, Francois Lefevre, Theodor Leininger, Jean-Marc Limousin, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Eliot J. B. McIntire, Christopher M. Moore, Emily Moran, Renzo Motta, Jonathan A. Myers, Thomas A. Nagel, Kyotaro Noguchi, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Robert Parmenter, Ian S. Pearse, Ignacio M. Perez-Ramos, Lukasz Piechnik, John Poulsen, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, Francisco Rodriguez-Sanchez, Javier D. Sanguinetti, C. Lane Scher, William H. Schlesinger, Harald Schmidt Van Marle, Barbara Seget, Shubhi Sharma, Miles Silman, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Jacob N. Straub, I-Fang Sun, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Peter A. Thomas, Maria Uriarte, Giorgio Vacchiano, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, Boyd Wright, S. Joseph Wright, Kai Zhu, Jess K. Zimmerman, Roman Zlotin, Magdalena Zywiec, James S. Clark, National Science Foundation (US), Belmont Forum, NASA Specialized Center of Research and Training, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, National Science Centre (Poland), US Forest Service, Qiu, Tong, Andrus, Robert, Aravena, Marie-Claire, Ascoli, Davide, Bergeron, Yves, Berretti, Roberta 0000-0002-1944-8855], Berveiller, Daniel, Bogdziewicz, Michal, Bonal, Raul, Bragg, Don C, Caignard, Thomas, Calama, Rafael, Camarero, J Julio, Chang-Yang, Chia-Hao, Cleavitt, Natalie L, Courbaud, Benoit, Courbet, Francois, Curt, Thomas, Adrian, Das, Daskalakou, Evangelia, Davi, Hendrik, Delpierre, Nicolas, Delzon, Sylvain, Dietze, Michael, Calderon, Sergio Donoso, Dormont, Laurent, Espelta, Josep, Fahey, Timothy J, Farfan-Rios, William, Gehring, Catherine A, Gilbert, Gregory S, Gratzer, Georg, Greenberg, Cathryn H, Guo,Qinfeng, Hacket-Pain, Andrew, Hampe, Arndt, Han, Qingmin, Hoshizaki, Kazuhiko, Ibáñez, Inés, Johnstone, Jill F, Journé, Valentin, Kabeya, Daisuke, Kilner, Christopher L, Kitzberger, Thomas, Knops, Johannes M H, Kobe, Richard K, Kunstler, Georges, Lageard, Jonathan G A, LaMontagne, Jalene M, Ledwon, Mateusz, Lefèvre, François, Leininger, Theodor, Limousin, Jean-Marc, Lutz, James A, McIntire, Eliot J B, Moran, Emily, Motta, Renzo, Myers, Jonathan A, Nagel, Thomas A, Ourcival, Jean-Marc, Parmenter, Robert, Pearse, Ian S, Perez-Ramos, Ignacio M, Piechnik, Lukasz, Poulsen, John, Poulton-Kamakura, Renata, Redmond, Miranda D, Reid, Chantal D, Rodman, Kyle C, Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco, Schlesinger, William H, Seget, Barbara, Silman, Miles, Stephenson, Nathan L, Sun, I-Fang, Sutton, Samantha, Swenson, Jennifer J, Thomas, Peter A, Uriarte, Maria, Vacchiano, Giorgio, Veblen, Thomas T, Wion, Andreas P, Wright, Boyd, Wright, S Joseph, Zimmerman, Jess K, Zhu, Kai, Zywiec, Magdalena, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University [Durham], University of Colorado [Boulder], Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago] (UCHILE), Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin (UNITO), Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (UAM), Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid] (UCM), USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés (BioGeCo), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centro de Investigacion Forestal (INIA-CIFOR), Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA), Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologìa = Pyrenean Institute of Ecology [Zaragoza] (IPE - CSIC), National Sun Yat-Sen University (NSYSU), Cornell University [New York], Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM), Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), United States Geological Survey (USGS), Boston University [Boston] (BU), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM), CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries, Washington University in Saint Louis (WUSTL), Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], University of California [Santa Cruz] (UC Santa Cruz), University of California (UC), Institute of Forest Ecology, Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), University of Liverpool, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Akita University, University of Michigan [Dearborn], University of Michigan System, University of Alaska [Anchorage], Universidad Nacional del Comahue [Neuquén] (UNCOMA), Xi'an Jiaotong University (Xjtu), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, University of Manchester [Manchester], DePaul University [Chicago], Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque], Colby College, The project has been funded continuously since 1992 by NationalScience Foundation grants to J.S.C, most recently DEB-1754443, and by the BelmontForum (1854976), NASA (AIST16-0052, AIST18-0063), and the Programme d’Inves-tissement d’Avenir under project FORBIC (18-MPGA-0004)(Make Our Planet GreatAgain). Puerto Rico data were funded by NSF grants to M.U., most recently, DEB 0963447and LTREB 11222325. Data from the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Groupwere funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and NSF LTREB 1754647 toM.S. Additional funding to M.Z. came from the W.Szafer Institute of Botany of the PolishAcademy of Sciences and the Polish National Science Foundation (2019/33/B/NZ8/0134).M.B. was supported by the Polish National Science Centre grant no. 2019/35/D/NZ8/00050, and Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange Bekker programme PPN/BEK/2020/1/00009/U/00001. J.M.L. was supported by NSF grant DEB 1745496. Jerry Franklin’sdata remain accessible through NSF LTER DEB-1440409. USDA Forest Service and USGSresearch was funded by those agencies, Qiu, Tong [0000-0003-4499-437X], Andrus, Robert [0000-0003-0968-8377], Aravena, Marie-Claire [0000-0002-4493-4396], Ascoli, Davide [0000-0002-0546-4467], Bergeron, Yves [0000-0003-3707-3687], Berretti, Roberta 0000-0002-1944-8855][, Berveiller, Daniel [0000-0001-7461-6420], Bogdziewicz, Michal [0000-0002-6777-9034], Bonal, Raul [0000-0002-6084-1771], Bragg, Don C [0000-0002-5207-8606], Caignard, Thomas [0000-0001-5009-4613], Calama, Rafael [0000-0002-2598-9594], Camarero, J Julio [0000-0003-2436-2922], Chang-Yang, Chia-Hao [0000-0003-3635-4946], Cleavitt, Natalie L [0000-0003-0425-2486], Courbaud, Benoit [0000-0002-3050-9559], Courbet, Francois [0000-0002-9438-6746], Curt, Thomas [0000-0002-2654-3009], Adrian, Das [0000-0002-3937-2616], Daskalakou, Evangelia [0000-0002-5190-1023], Davi, Hendrik [0000-0001-8828-3145], Delpierre, Nicolas [0000-0003-0906-9402], Delzon, Sylvain [0000-0003-3442-1711], Dietze, Michael [0000-0002-2324-2518], Calderon, Sergio Donoso [0000-0002-4599-4702], Dormont, Laurent [0000-0002-2021-0625], Espelta, Josep [0000-0002-0242-4988], Fahey, Timothy J [0000-0003-1283-1162], Farfan-Rios, William [0000-0002-3196-0317], Gehring, Catherine A [0000-0002-9393-9556], Gilbert, Gregory S [0000-0002-5195-9903], Gratzer, Georg [0000-0002-6355-6562], Greenberg, Cathryn H [0000-0002-2831-0989], Guo,Qinfeng [0000-0002-4375-4916], Hacket-Pain, Andrew [0000-0003-3676-1568], Hampe, Arndt [0000-0003-2551-9784], Han, Qingmin [0000-0001-6063-6068], Hoshizaki, Kazuhiko [0000-0001-7654-9129], Ibáñez, Inés[0000-0002-1054-0727], Johnstone, Jill F [0000-0001-6131-9339], Journé, Valentin [0000-0001-7324-7002], Kabeya, Daisuke [0000-0002-3420-199X], Kilner, Christopher L [0000-0001-8808-8868], Kitzberger, Thomas [0000-0002-9754-4121], Knops, Johannes M H [0000-0002-9647-9209], Kobe, Richard K [0000-0002-0943-9613], Kunstler, Georges [0000-0002-2544-1940], Lageard, Jonathan G A [0000-0001-8971-0444], LaMontagne, Jalene M [0000-0001-7713-8591], Ledwon, Mateusz [0000-0003-3017-6376], Lefèvre, François [0000-0003-2242-7251], Leininger, Theodor [0000-0002-4939-3656], Limousin, Jean-Marc [0000-0002-2734-2495], Lutz, James A [0000-0002-2560-0710], McIntire, Eliot J B [0000-0002-6914-8316], Moran, Emily [0000-0003-4624-1910], Motta, Renzo [0000-0002-1631-3840], Myers, Jonathan A [0000-0002-2058-8468], Nagel, Thomas A [0000-0002-4207-9218], Ourcival, Jean-Marc [0000-0002-3557-3496], Parmenter, Robert [0000-0002-2099-6824], Pearse, Ian S [0000-0001-7098-0495], Perez-Ramos, Ignacio M [0000-0003-2332-7818], Piechnik, Lukasz [0000-0002-3958-7393], Poulsen, John [0000-0002-1532-9808], Poulton-Kamakura, Renata [0000-0002-2516-8702], Redmond, Miranda D [0000-0002-4657-7943], Reid, Chantal D [0000-0002-3811-4076], Rodman, Kyle C [0000-0001-9538-8412], Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco [0000-0002-7981-1599], Schlesinger, William H [0000-0002-1391-0885], Seget, Barbara [0000-0002-7872-926X], Silman, Miles [0000-0003-4152-2844], Stephenson, Nathan L [0000-0003-0208-7229], Sun, I-Fang [0000-0001-9749-8324], Sutton, Samantha [0000-0002-1491-7763], Swenson, Jennifer J [0000-0002-2069-667X], Thomas, Peter A [0000-0003-3115-3301], Uriarte, Maria [0000-0002-0484-0758], Vacchiano, Giorgio [0000-0001-8100-0659], Veblen, Thomas T [0000-0002-3037-640X], Wion, Andreas P [0000-0002-0701-2843], Wright, Boyd [0000-0002-6322-4904], Wright, S Joseph [0000-0003-4260-5676], Zimmerman, Jess K [0000-0002-8179-0731], Zhu, Kai [0000-0003-1587-3317], and Zywiec, Magdalena [0000-0002-5992-4051]
Subjects: Physiology, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], General Physics and Astronomy, Forests, Q1, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Trees, reproductive potential, Plant seed, Forest, pridelava semen, Plant ecology, SB, SD, Multidisciplinary, Reproduction, Contraception/Reproduction, Botánica, production control, food and beverages, General Chemistry, Biodiversity, Ecología, Fertility, natural disasters, nadzor pridelave, seed production, Seeds, reprodukcijski potencial, Forest ecology, udc:630*23, ujme, Tree
Abstract: 12 Pág., The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential., The project has been funded continuously since 1992 by National Science Foundation grants to J.S.C, most recently DEB-1754443, and by the Belmont Forum (1854976), NASA (AIST16-0052, AIST18-0063), and the Programme d’Investissement d’Avenir under project FORBIC (18-MPGA-0004)(Make Our Planet Great Again). Puerto Rico data were funded by NSF grants to M.U., most recently, DEB 0963447 and LTREB 11222325. Data from the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group were funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and NSF LTREB 1754647 to M.S. Additional funding to M.Z. came from the W.Szafer Institute of Botany of the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Polish National Science Foundation (2019/33/B/NZ8/0134). M.B. was supported by the Polish National Science Centre grant no. 2019/35/D/NZ8/00050, and Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange Bekker programme PPN/BEK/2020/1/00009/U/00001. J.M.L. was supported by NSF grant DEB 1745496. Jerry Franklin’s data remain accessible through NSF LTER DEB-1440409. USDA Forest Service and USGS research was funded by those agencies.
Published: 2022

37. Globally, tree fecundity exceeds productivity gradients

Author: Valentin Journé, Robert Andrus, Marie‐Claire Aravena, Davide Ascoli, Roberta Berretti, Daniel Berveiller, Michal Bogdziewicz, Thomas Boivin, Raul Bonal, Thomas Caignard, Rafael Calama, Jesús Julio Camarero, Chia‐Hao Chang‐Yang, Benoit Courbaud, Francois Courbet, Thomas Curt, Adrian J. Das, Evangelia Daskalakou, Hendrik Davi, Nicolas Delpierre, Sylvain Delzon, Michael Dietze, Sergio Donoso Calderon, Laurent Dormont, Josep Maria Espelta, Timothy J. Fahey, William Farfan‐Rios, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Georg Gratzer, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Andrew Hacket‐Pain, Arndt Hampe, Qingmin Han, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, Kazuhiko Hoshizaki, Ines Ibanez, Jill F. Johnstone, Daisuke Kabeya, Roland Kays, Thomas Kitzberger, Johannes M. H. Knops, Richard K. Kobe, Georges Kunstler, Jonathan G. A. Lageard, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Theodor Leininger, Jean‐Marc Limousin, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Eliot J. B. McIntire, Christopher M. Moore, Emily Moran, Renzo Motta, Jonathan A. Myers, Thomas A. Nagel, Kyotaro Noguchi, Jean‐Marc Ourcival, Robert Parmenter, Ian S. Pearse, Ignacio M. Perez‐Ramos, Lukasz Piechnik, John Poulsen, Renata Poulton‐Kamakura, Tong Qiu, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, Francisco Rodriguez‐Sanchez, Javier D. Sanguinetti, C. Lane Scher, Harald Schmidt Van Marle, Barbara Seget, Shubhi Sharma, Miles Silman, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Jacob N. Straub, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Peter A. Thomas, Maria Uriarte, Giorgio Vacchiano, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Boyd Wright, S. Joseph Wright, Kai Zhu, Jess K. Zimmerman, Roman Zlotin, Magdalena Zywiec, James S. Clark, National Science Foundation (US), NASA Astrobiology Institute (US), Belmont Forum, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange, Journé, Valentin [0000-0001-7324-7002], Camarero, Jesús Julio [0000-0003-2436-2922], Dietze, Michael [0000-0002-2324-2518], Espelta, Josep Maria [0000-0002-0242-4988], Kays, Roland [0000-0002-2947-6665], Hampe, Arndt [0000-0003-2551-9784], Kunstler, Georges [0000-0002-2544-1940], Ibáñez, Inés [0000-0002-1054-0727], Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio Manuel [0000-0003-2332-7818], Scher, C. Lane [0000-0003-3689-5769], Uriarte, María [0000-0002-0484-0758], Wright, S. Joseph [0000-0003-4260-5676], Zhu, Kai [0000-0003-1587-3317], Zywiec, Magdalena [0000-0002-5992-4051], Clark, James S. [0000-0002-5677-9733], Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM), University of Colorado [Boulder], Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago] (UCHILE), Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin (UNITO), Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (UAM), Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid] (UCM), Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés (BioGeCo), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centro de Investigacion Forestal (INIA-CIFOR), Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), National Sun Yat-Sen University (NSYSU), Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Western Ecological Research Center, Hellenic Agricultural Organization Demeter (HAO Demeter), Department of Earth and Environment [Boston], Boston University [Boston] (BU), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM), CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries, Cornell University [New York], Washington University in Saint Louis (WUSTL), Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], University of California (UC), USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), University of Liverpool, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Departement Erdwissenschaften [ETH Zürich] (D-ERDW), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Akita University, University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, University of Alaska [Fairbanks] (UAF), North Carolina State University [Raleigh] (NC State), University of North Carolina System (UNC), Universidad Nacional del Comahue [Neuquén] (UNCOMA), Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University [Suzhou], Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU), DePaul University [Chicago], USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Utah State University (USU), The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque], Pacific Forestry Centre, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), Colby College, University of California [Merced] (UC Merced), University of Ljubljana, National Park Service, United States Geological Survey (USGS), Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Sevilla (IRNAS), Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), Duke University [Durham], Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Universidad de Sevilla / University of Sevilla, Universidad de Santiago de Chile [Santiago] (USACH), Wake Forest University, Wilkes University, Partenaires INRAE, State University of New York (SUNY), Keele University [Keele], Columbia University [New York], Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI), University of New England (UNE), Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, University of Puerto Rico (UPR), Indiana University [Bloomington], Indiana University System, National Science Foundation (NSF)DEB-1754443National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)AIST16-0052AIST18-0063Belmont Forum1854976, ANR-18-MPGA-0004,FORBIC,Prévision du changement de la biodiversité(2018), Journé, Valentin, Camarero, Jesús Julio, Dietze, Michael, Espelta, Josep Maria, Kays, Roland, Hampe, Arndt, Kunstler, Georges, Ibáñez, Inés, Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio Manuel, Scher, C. Lane, Uriarte, María, Wright, S. Joseph, Zhu, Kai, Zywiec, Magdalena, Clark, James S., and McGlinn, Daniel
Subjects: S1, Climate, Forests, Regenerative Medicine, Forest regeneration, Trees, Seed consumption, Species interactions, climate, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, SD, tree fecundity, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Evolutionary Biology, species interactions, Ecology, competition, forest regeneration, seed consumption, Biodiversity, Fertility, Seeds, Competition, Ecological Applications, Tree fecundity
Abstract: 12 páginas.- 5 figuras.- 67 referencias.- Additional supporting information may be found in the online version of the article at the publisher’s website .- The peer review history for this article is available at https://publons.com/publon/10.1111/ele.14012 .- All data and code supporting our results are archived on the Zenodo Repository at the following link: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6381799, Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250-fold increase in seed abundance from cold-dry to warm-wet climates, driven primarily by a 100-fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics., The project has been funded by grants to JSC from the National Science Foundation, most recently DEB-1754443, and by the Belmont Forum (1854976), NASA (AIST16-0052, AIST18-0063) and the Programme d’Investissement d’Avenir under project FORBIC (18-MPGA-0004) (Make Our Planet Great Again). Jerry Franklin’s data remain accessible through NSF LTER DEB-1440409. Puerto Rico data were funded by NSF grants, most recently, DEB 0963447 and LTREB 11222325. Data from the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group were funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and NSF LTREB 1754647. MB was supported by grant no. 2019/35/D/NZ8/00050 from the (Polish) National Science Centre, and Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange Bekker programme PPN/BEK/2020/1/00009/U/00001. Research by the USDA Forest Service and the USGS was funded by these agencies. Any use of trade, firm or product names does not imply endorsement by the US Government.
Published: 2022

38. Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Author: Robert Daley, Amanda M. Schwantes, Samantha Sutton, Cathryn H. Greenberg, William H. Schlesinger, Erin Shanahan, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Jonathan Myers, Andreas P. Wion, Shubhi Sharma, Michał Bogdziewicz, Jordan Luongo, Kristin Legg, Inés Ibáñez, Don C. Bragg, Adrian J. Das, Catherine A. Gehring, Christopher M. Moore, Eliot J. B. McIntire, C. Lane Scher, Michael Dietze, Ethan Ready, Jill F. Johnstone, James A. Lutz, Robert R. Parmenter, Robert A. Andrus, Diana Macias, Orrin Myers, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Michael A. Steele, Miranda D. Redmond, Jerry F. Franklin, James S. Clark, Yves Bergeron, Yassine Messaoud, Kai Zhu, Sam Pearse, Johannes M. H. Knops, Chase L. Nuñez, Roman Zlotin, Georges Kunstler, Thomas T. Veblen, Istem Fer, Walter D. Koenig, Thomas G. Whitham, Timothy J. Fahey, Dale G. Brockway, Janneke HilleRisLambers, Christopher L. Kilner, Gregory S. Gilbert, Benoît Courbaud, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Scott M. Pearson, Nathan L. Stephenson, Kyle C. Rodman, Qinfeng Guo, Jennifer J. Swenson, Emily V. Moran, Susan L. Cohen, Margaret Swift, C. D. Reid, Mélaine Aubry-Kientz, Amy V. Whipple, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University [Durham], Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), University of Colorado [Boulder], University of California [Merced], University of California, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (UAM), USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Cornell University [New York], Department Biostatistics University of North Carolina, University of North Carolina [Chapel Hill] (UNC), University of North Carolina System (UNC)-University of North Carolina System (UNC), National Park Service, United States Geological Survey (USGS), Boston University [Boston] (BU), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), University of Washington [Seattle], Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], University of California [Santa Cruz] (UCSC), Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, US Forest Service, University of Michigan System, University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon] (U of S), Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University [Suzhou], University of California [Berkeley], DePaul University [Chicago], Utah State University (USU), The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque], Pacific Forestry Centre, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), University of Quebec (INRS-EMT), Colby College, Washington University in Saint Louis (WUSTL), Max Planck Society, United States Department of the Interior, Fort Collins Science Center, Mars Hill University, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), University of Toronto, Wilkes University, Partenaires INRAE, Department of Geography, Bloomington, Russian and East European Institute, Bloomington, National Science Foundation (NSF) : DEB-1754443, Belmont Forum : 1854976, National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) : AIST16-0052, AIST18-0063, and ANR-18-MPGA-0004,FORBIC,Prévision du changement de la biodiversité(2018)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Science, Species distribution, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, Variation (game tree), Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Climate effects, Trees, Theoretical, Models, Author Correction, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Multidisciplinary, Geography, Ecology, General Chemistry, Models, Theoretical, 15. Life on land, Fecundity, Climate Action, Tree (data structure), Fertility, 13. Climate action, North America, Seasons, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Tree species
Abstract: Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates., Nature Communications, 12, ISSN:2041-1723
Published: 2021

39. The effects of ENSO and the North American monsoon on mast seeding in two Rocky Mountain conifer species

Author: Kyle C. Rodman, Thomas T. Veblen, Miranda D. Redmond, Andreas P. Wion, and Ian S. Pearse
Subjects: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Cyclonic Storms, Ecology, North American Monsoon, Articles, Forests, 15. Life on land, Biology, Pinus edulis, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, food.food, Pinus ponderosa, Tracheophyta, food, El Niño Southern Oscillation, 13. Climate action, Seeding, Mast (botany), General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: We aimed to disentangle the patterns of synchronous and variable cone production (i.e. masting) and its relationship to climate in two conifer species native to dry forests of western North America. We used cone abscission scars to reconstruct ca 15 years of recent cone production in Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa , and used redundancy analysis to relate time series of annual cone production to climate indices describing the North American monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We show that the sensitivity to climate and resulting synchrony in cone production varies substantially between species. Cone production among populations of P. edulis was much more spatially synchronous and more closely related to large-scale modes of climate variability than among populations of P. ponderosa . Large-scale synchrony in P. edulis cone production was associated with the North American monsoon and we identified a dipole pattern of regional cone production associated with ENSO phase. In P. ponderosa , these climate indices were not strongly associated with cone production, resulting in asynchronous masting patterns among populations. This study helps frame our understanding of mast seeding as a life-history strategy and has implications for our ability to forecast mast years in these species. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants’.
Published: 2021

40. Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence

Author: Catherine A. Gehring, Tong Qiu, Kai Zhu, Richard K. Kobe, María Uriarte, James A. Lutz, Connie J. Clark, S. Joseph Wright, William Farfan-Rios, Sylvain Delzon, Thomas G. Whitham, Robert A. Andrus, Georges Kunstler, John R. Poulsen, Marie-Claire Aravena, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Andreas P. Wion, Ian S. Pearse, Amy V. Whipple, Miranda D. Redmond, Shubhi Sharma, Michał Bogdziewicz, Thomas A. Nagel, James S. Clark, Christopher L. Kilner, Kazuhiko Hoshizaki, Valentin Journé, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Margaret Swift, C. D. Reid, Jonathan Myers, Thomas T. Veblen, Benoît Courbaud, Walter D. Koenig, Kyle C. Rodman, Inés Ibáñez, Rafael Calama, Chase L. Nuñez, C. Lane Scher, Barbara Seget, Mateusz Ledwoń, Łukasz Piechnik, J. Julio Camarero, Qinfeng Guo, Thomas Boivin, Davide Ascoli, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, Jennifer J. Swenson, Raúl Bonal, Sergio Calderón, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Jess K. Zimmerman, Giorgio Vacchiano, Magdalena Żywiec, Miles R. Silman, Gregory S. Gilbert, Thomas Caignard, Harald Schmidt Van Marle, Roberta Berretti, Yves Bergeron, Renzo Motta, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University [Durham], Universidad de Chile, University of Colorado [Boulder], Department of Agriculture, Forest and Food Sciences, University of Torino, University of Quebec in Abitibi-Temiscamingue (UQAT), Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (UAM), Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid] (UCM), Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés (BioGeCo), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centro de Investigacion Forestal (INIA-CIFOR), Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA), Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia (IPE), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM), Missouri Botanical Garden, Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], University of California [Santa Cruz] (UCSC), University of California, US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREST SERVICE USA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, US Forest Service, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Akita University, University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, University of California [Berkeley], DePaul University [Chicago], Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University (USU), Washington University in Saint Louis (WUSTL), University of Ljubljana, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Fort Collins Science Center (FORT), US Geological Survey [Fort Collins], United States Geological Survey [Reston] (USGS)-United States Geological Survey [Reston] (USGS), W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wake Forest University, Columbia University [New York], Department and Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, (DiSAA), University of Milan, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, University of Puerto Rico (UPR), National Science Foundation (NSF) : 1754443, Belmont Forum : 1854976, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Advanced Information Systems Technology) : 16-0052 AIST18-0063, National Science Foundation (NSF) : DEB-1440409, W. Szafer Institute of Botany of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Foundation for Polish Science : 2019/33/B/NZ8/0134, National Science Foundation (NSF) : DEB 0963447 11222325 LTREB 1754647, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)United States Forest Service, and ANR-18-MPGA-0004,FORBIC,Prévision du changement de la biodiversité(2018)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Senescence, Crown architecture, Biology, Forests, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Models, Biological, Trees, tree senescence, Tree life history, Models, Regeneration, Tree senescence, Architectural change, Allometric scaling, tree fecundity, Multidisciplinary, Ecology, crown architecture, Crown (botany), Regression analysis, 15. Life on land, Biological Sciences, Fecundity, Biological, Rate of increase, Fertility, Tree fecundity, Tree (set theory), Allometry, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, allometric scaling, 010606 plant biology & botany, tree life history
Abstract: International audience; Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size–fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.
Published: 2021

41. Stand dynamics and topographic setting influence changes in live tree biomass over a 34-year permanent plot record in a subalpine forest in the Colorado Front Range

Author: Rachel K. Chai, Kyle C. Rodman, Brian J. Harvey, Thomas T. Veblen, and Robert A. Andrus
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Biomass (ecology), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Range (biology), Carbon pool, Front (oceanography), Forestry, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Tree (data structure), Environmental science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Subalpine forest
Abstract: Climate-induced increases in tree mortality are reported for many forests worldwide. Understanding the potential effects on carbon pools requires long-term monitoring of changes in forest biomass. We measured aboveground biomass (AGB) of living trees over a 34-year period (1982–2016) in permanent plots with varying stand ages, species compositions, and topographic settings in a subalpine forest in the Colorado Front Range. Stand-level and species-level AGB varied spatially and temporally in relation to stand age, successional processes, and site moisture classification. Young (ca. 122 years) postfire stands composed of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Watson) had lower mean AGB than older (>250 years) mixed-species stands. Mesic stands had higher AGB than xeric or hydric stands of similar age. At the level of individual species, significant shifts in AGB among species were primarily explained by successional replacement of shade-intolerant pines by shade-tolerant Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.). The permanent plot network recorded significant shifts in species dominance and tree densities between 1982 and 2016, reflecting successional patterns developing over several centuries and the effects of recent localized windthrow, insects, and pathogens. Despite increases in tree mortality, there was a general pattern of increasing AGB across the forest.
Published: 2019

42. Different vital rates of Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir explain discordance in understory and overstory dominance

Author: Brian J. Harvey, Thomas T. Veblen, Robert A. Andrus, and Rachel K. Chai
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Tree canopy, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Forest dynamics, Forestry, Understory, Biology, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Long term learning, Seedling, Montane ecology, Dominance (ecology), Vital rates, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Studies of forest dynamics commonly assume that species composition of the seedling bank reflects the composition of the future forest canopy. However, many forest types exhibit persistent differen...
Published: 2018

43. Future dominance by quaking aspen expected following short‐interval, compounded disturbance interaction

Author: Sarah J. Hart, Robert A. Andrus, Thomas T. Veblen, and Niko J. Tutland
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Disturbance (geology), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Dendroctonus rufipennis, biology, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Short interval, Environmental science, Dominance (ecology), Quaking Aspen, Fire ecology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Published: 2021

44. Author response for 'Increasing rates of subalpine tree mortality linked to warmer and drier summers'

Author: Kyle C. Rodman, Thomas T. Veblen, Rachel K. Chai, Robert A. Andrus, and Brian J. Harvey
Subjects: Tree (data structure), Geography, Ecology, Montane ecology
Published: 2020

45. Increased fire severity triggers positive feedbacks of greater vegetation flammability and favors plant community‐type conversions

Author: Florencia Tiribelli, Thomas Kitzberger, Thomas T. Veblen, Jennifer B. Landesmann, and Juan Paritsis
Subjects: geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, biology, ved/biology, ved/biology.organism_classification_rank.species, Nothofagus dombeyi, Plant community, Plant Science, Vegetation, biology.organism_classification, Shrub, Shrubland, Alternative stable state, Environmental science, Nothofagus pumilio, Flammability
Abstract: QUESTIONS: Increased wildfire activity is resulting in plant community‐type conversions worldwide. In some regions, fire‐sensitive forests are being replaced by flammable fire‐resilient communities, increasing the likelihood of reburning due to positive fire feedbacks. Here we evaluated whether fire severity affects post‐fire plant community flammability attributes that lead to community‐type conversions and changes in the likelihood of reburning. Specifically, we assessed how fire severity, the dominant pre‐fire vegetation, and distance to unburned remnant forest may shape post‐fire community properties and flammability trajectories in northwestern Patagonia. LOCATION: Northwestern Patagonia, Argentina. METHODS: We repeated sampling of Nothofagus pumilio, Nothofagus dombeyi, and Austrocedrus chilensis forests and native shrublands (composed of multiple shrub species) two and 18 years after fires that burned at low‐ to very high‐severity levels, and measured community structure and flammability attributes. RESULTS: Eighteen years after fire, forests that burned at moderate to very high severity were unable to recover and were replaced by more flammable shrublands and grasslands. Following low‐severity fire, fine‐fuel density was lower and forest recovery was enhanced by greater survival of remnant seed trees. Burnt shrublands increased in abundance across all severity classes but attained highest fine‐fuel production after moderate‐ to very high‐severity fire. CONCLUSIONS: Low fire severity, by enabling regeneration of forests that are less flammable than shrublands, diminishes the likelihood of reburning, thus establishing a negative feedback favorable to forest perpetuation. Conversely, moderate to very high fire severity leads to a positive feedback by promoting conversion to shrublands and greater fine‐fuel accumulation. This increases the likelihood of reburning, reinforcing the persistence of pyrophytic communities and favoring landscape‐scale loss of fire‐sensitive forests. This fire severity‐mediated positive feedback may in many regions worldwide further amplify warming‐related wildfire activity increases, posing serious threats to the persistence of fire‐sensitive ecosystems.
Published: 2020

46. Author response for 'A trait‐based approach to assessing resistance and resilience to wildfire in two iconic North American conifers'

Author: null Kyle C. Rodman, null Thomas T. Veblen, null Robert A. Andrus, null Neal J. Enright, null Joseph B. Fontaine, null Angela D. Gonzalez, null Miranda D. Redmond, and null Andreas P. Wion
Published: 2020

47. Author response for 'A trait‐based approach to assessing resistance and resilience to wildfire in two iconic North American conifers'

Author: Angela D. Gonzalez, Neal J. Enright, Joseph B. Fontaine, Kyle C. Rodman, Andreas P. Wion, Robert A. Andrus, Miranda D. Redmond, and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: Resistance (ecology), Ecology, Trait based, Psychology, Resilience (network)
Published: 2020

48. Reproductive maturity and cone abundance vary with tree size and stand basal area for two widely distributed conifers

Author: Ashley Hoffman, Brian J. Harvey, Robert A. Andrus, and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Maturity (geology), Abies lasiocarpa, Ecology, mixed model, cone production, Colorado Front Range, 15. Life on land, Biology, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Cone (formal languages), Basal area, Tree (data structure), Abundance (ecology), lcsh:QH540-549.5, Picea engelmannii, lcsh:Ecology, conifer reproduction, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: Understanding potential limitations to tree regeneration is essential as rates of tree mortality increase in response to direct (extreme drought) and indirect (bark beetle outbreaks, wildfire) effects of a warming climate. Seed availability is increasingly recognized as an important limitation for tree regeneration. High variability in seed cone production is a trait common among many northern temperate conifers, but few studies examine the determinants of individual tree cone production and how they vary with stand structure. In subalpine forests in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, we monitored >1600 Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) and Abies lasiocarpa (subalpine fir) trees for cone presence (an indicator of reproductive maturity) and a subset of those trees for cone abundance (an indicator of seed production) from 2016 to 2018. We constructed mixed models to test how individual tree cone presence and cone abundance were affected by tree size and age as well as forest attributes at the neighborhood‐ and stand‐scales. The probability of cone presence and cone abundance increased with tree size and age for A. lasiocarpa and P. engelmannii. The youngest ages of trees with cones present were more than 100 yr later for individuals in high basal area (BA) stands (>65 m2/ha) relative to low BA stands (
Published: 2020

49. Field-Validated Burn-Severity Mapping in North Patagonian Forests

Author: Ignacio A. Mundo, María Guadalupe Franco, and Thomas T. Veblen
Subjects: LANDSAT 8 OLI, Index (economics), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Normalized burn ratio, Science, ved/biology.organism_classification_rank.species, normalized difference vegetation index, macromolecular substances, classification thresholds, 01 natural sciences, Shrub, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, wildfire, purl.org/becyt/ford/1 [https], NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX, Statistics, MID-INFRARED BURNED INDEX, NORMALIZED BURN RATIO, purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 [https], CLASSIFICATION THRESHOLDS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 040101 forestry, WILDFIRE, ved/biology, normalized burn ratio, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, char soil index, Araucaria araucana, araucaria araucana, Field (geography), ARAUCARIA ARAUCANA, mid-infrared burned index, CHAR SOIL INDEX, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, landsat 8 oli, Tree species, Kappa
Abstract: Burn severity, which can be reliably estimated by validated spectral indices, is a key element for understanding ecosystem dynamics and informing management strategies. However, in North Patagonian forests, where wildfires are a major disturbance agent, studies aimed at the field validation of spectral indices of burn severity are scarce. The aim of this work was to develop a field validated methodology for burn-severity mapping by studying two large fires that burned in the summer of 2013-2014 in forests of Araucaria araucana and other tree species. We explored the relation between widely used spectral indices and a field burn-severity index, and we evaluated index performance by examining index sensitivity in discriminating burn-severity classes in different vegetation types. For those indices that proved to be suitable, we adjusted the class thresholds and constructed confusion matrices to assess their accuracy. Burn severity maps of the studied fires were generated using the two most accurate methods and were compared to evaluate their level of agreement. Our results confirm that reliable burn severity estimates can be derived from spectral indices for these forests. Two severity indices, the delta normalized burn ratio (dNBR) and delta normalized difference vegetation index (dNDVI), were highly related to the fire-induced changes observed in the field, but the strength of these associations varied across the five different vegetation types defined by tree heights and tree and tall shrub species regeneration strategies. The thresholds proposed in this study for these indices generated classifications with global accuracies of 82% and Kappa indices of 70%. Both the dNBR and dNDVI classification approaches were more accurate in detecting high severity, but to a lesser degree for detecting low severity burns. Moderate severity was poorly classified, with producer and user errors reaching 50%. These constraints, along with detected differences in separability, need to be considered when interpreting burn severity maps generated using these methods. Fil: Franco, María Guadalupe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Mundo, Ignacio Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Veblen, Thomas T.. University of Colorado; Estados Unidos
Published: 2020

50. Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome

Author: Juan Paritsis, George L. W. Perry, Anthony W. D'Amato, Alvaro G. Gutiérrez, Andreas Sommerfeld, Rupert Seidl, Brian Buma, Shawn Fraver, Miroslav Svoboda, Tiphaine Després, Cornelius Senf, Thomas Kitzberger, Sarah J. Hart, Tomáš Hlásny, Brian J. Harvey, Monica G. Turner, Scott L. Stephens, David B. Lindenmayer, Akira Mori, Jörg Müller, Lee E. Frelich, Thomas T. Veblen, Hong S. He, Andrés Holz, Ignacio Díaz-Hormazábal, and Dominik Kulakowski
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Disturbance (geology), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Science, Biome, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, Forests, FIRE, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Ciencias Biológicas, purl.org/becyt/ford/1 [https], FOREST DISTURBANCE, Temperate climate, Ecosystem, GLOBAL CHANGE, lcsh:Science, purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 [https], 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Multidisciplinary, Land use, Ecology, Temperate forest, Global change, General Chemistry, Ecología, 15. Life on land, Geography, 13. Climate action, Remote Sensing Technology, lcsh:Q, INSECT OUTBREAKS, CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
Abstract: Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001–2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes., Climate change may impact forest disturbances, though local variability is high. Here, Sommerfeld et al. show that disturbance patterns across the temperate biome vary with agents and tree traits, yet large disturbances are consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions.
Published: 2018

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