1. Growth, cycles, and residential investment.
- Author
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Santetti, Marcio, Nikiforos, Michalis, and von Arnim, Rudiger
- Subjects
- *
BUSINESS cycles , *ECONOMIC indicators , *EMPLOYMENT statistics , *TIME series analysis ,UNITED States economy - Abstract
• Disaggregated investment is included in a neo-Godwinian model of growth and distribution. • The "Goodwin pattern" for the U.S. economy is robust to the inclusion of aggregate and disaggregated investment measures. • Residential investment leads the cycle, whereas nonresidential investment lags it. • Novel visualization technique combines impulse-response analysis with cyclical trajectories. The empirical literature on models of cyclical growth and distribution has not investigated the differential roles of residential vs. nonresidential investment. These flows are similar in that they are largely undertaken by profit-seeking corporations, but differ greatly in that residential (nonresidential) investment is a leading (lagging) indicator of the business cycle. We estimate two Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models of the cyclical components of US post-WWII time series with restrictions motivated by neo-Goodwinian theory. The 4D model includes utilization rate, accumulation rate, employment rate and labor share. The 5D model disaggregates investment into residential and nonresidential flows. Results (i) support profit-led demand and profit- squeeze distribution, and (ii) confirm that residential investment leads the cycle, whereas nonresidential investment lags it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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