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Introduction The effect of remdesivir on COVID-19 mortality remains conflicting. Elderly individuals are at risk for poor COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to assess the effect of remdesivir on COVID-19 mortality among elderly individuals, using real-world data. Methods Retrospective multinational cohort of individuals aged ≥65 years, hospitalized with COVID-19 in six medical centres between January 2020 and May 2021. Associations with in-hospital mortality were evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model with propensity score adjustment for remdesivir therapy and while implementing generalized estimating equations to control for centre effect. Sensitivity analysis was performed by stratification according to the degree of respiratory support. Results Of 3010 individuals included, 2788 individuals required either oxygen supplementation or non-invasive/invasive mechanical ventilation, 489 (16%) were treated with remdesivir, and 836 (28%) died. Median age was 77 (IQR 70–84) years and 42% were women. Remdesivir was the only therapeutic intervention associated with decreased mortality [adjusted OR (aOR) 0.49, 95% CI 0.37–0.66, P Risk factors for mortality included invasive ventilation (aOR 5.18, 95% CI 2.46–10.91, P Conclusions Among elderly individuals hospitalized with COVID-19, remdesivir carries survival benefit for those with moderate to severe disease. Its role among individuals with critical illness should be further assessed.

To identify predictors of 30-day survival in elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Retrospective cohort study including patients with COVID-19 aged ≥65 years hospitalized in six European sites (January 2020 to May 2021). Data on demographics, comorbidities, clinical characteristics, and outcomes were collected. A predictive score (FLAMINCOV) was developed using logistic regression. Regression coefficients were used to calculate the score. External validation was performed in a cohort including elderly patients from a major COVID-19 centre in Israel. Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the derivation and validation cohorts. Survival risk groups based on the score were derived and applied to the validation cohort.Among 3010 patients included in the derivation cohort, 30-day survival was 74.5% (2242/3010). The intensive care unit admission rate was 7.6% (228/3010). The model predicting survival included independent functional status (OR, 4.87; 95% CI, 3.93-6.03), a oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpOThe FLAMINCOV score identifying elderly with higher or lower chances of survival may allow better triage and management, including intensive care unit admission/exclusion.

Aim of this study was to assess the predictors of virological failure (VF) among patients living with HIV (PLWHIV) switching from an effective first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen, and to evaluate the emergence of resistance-associated mutations. All adult patients enrolled in the Antiviral Response Cohort Analysis cohort who started ART after 2010, with at least 6 months of virological suppression (VS) before ART switch and with an available genotypic resistance test (GRT) at baseline were included. Thirty-two patients out of the 607 PLWHIV included (5.3%) experienced VF after a median of 11 months from ART switch. Younger age (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92-0.99

Objectives and designUsingpolsequences obtained for routine resistance testing, we characterised the molecular patterns of HIV-1 transmission and factors associated with being part of a transmission cluster among individuals who in 2008–2014 presented with primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) at 11 urban centres across Italy.MethodsPolsequences were obtained by Sanger sequencing. Transmission clusters were identified by phylogenetic analysis (maximum likelihood method, confirmed by Bayesian analysis). Multivariable logistic regression explored factors associated with a participant being part of a transmission cluster.ResultsThe PHI cohort comprised 186 participants (159/186, 85.5% males) with median age 44 years, median CD4 count 464 cells/mm3and median plasma HIV-1 RNA 5.6 log10copies/mL. Drug resistance associated mutations were found in 16/186 (8.6%). A diversity of non-B subtypes accounted for 60/186 (32.3%) of all infections. A total of 17 transmission clusters were identified, including 44/186 (23.7%) participants. Each cluster comprised 2–6 sequences. Non-B subtypes accounted for seven clusters and 22/44 (50%) of clustered sequences. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, factors associated with being part of a transmission cluster comprised harbouring a non-B subtype (adjusted OR (adjOR) 2.28; 95% CI 1.03 to 5.05; p=0.04) and showing a lower plasma HIV-1 RNA (adjOR 0.80, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.99; p=0.04).ConclusionsThere was a large contribution of diverse non-B subtypes to transmission clusters among people presenting with acute or recent HIV-1 infection in this cohort, illustrating the evolving dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Italy, where subtype B previously dominated.

BACKGROUND Results from clinical trials and observational studies suggest that dolutegravir plus lamivudine could be an effective and well-tolerated option for simplification in HIV-1-positive patients. We aimed to assess long-time efficacy and safety in our multicenter cohort. METHODS This was a retrospective study enrolling HIV-1-infected, virologically suppressed patients switching to dolutegravir + lamivudine. We performed survival analysis to evaluate time to virological failure (VF, defined by a single HIV-RNA ≥1000 copies/mL or by 2 consecutive HIV-RNA ≥ 50 copies/mL) and treatment discontinuation (defined as the interruption of either 3TC or dolutegravir), assessing predictors via Cox regression analyses. RESULTS Seven-hundred eighty-five patients were considered for the analysis: 554 were men (70.6%), with a median age of 52 years (interquartile range 45-58 years). Estimated probabilities of maintaining virological suppression at weeks 96, 144, and 240 were 97.7% (SD ±0.6), 96.9% (SD ±0.8), and 96.4% (SD ±0.9), respectively. A non-B HIV subtype (P = 0.014) and a previous VF (P = 0.037) resulted predictors of VF. We did not observe differences in probability of VF in people living with HIV with an M184V resistance mutation (P = 0.689); however, in a deeper analysis, M184V mutation was a predictor of VF (P = 0.038) in patients with time of virological suppression

Objectives Sex differences in COVID-19 severity and mortality have been described. Key aims of this analysis were to compare the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and mortality by sex and to explore whether variation in specific biomarkers could mediate this difference. Methods This was a retrospective, observational cohort study among patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. A survival analysis was conducted to compare time to the composite endpoint of IMV or death by sex. Interaction was formally tested to compare the risk difference by sex in subsets. Mediation analysis with a binary endpoint IMV or death (yes/no) by end of follow-up for a number of inflammation/coagulation biomarkers in the context of counterfactual prediction was also conducted. Results Among 415 patients, 134 were females (32%) and 281 males (67%), median age 66 years (IQR 54-77). At admission, females showed a significantly less severe clinical and respiratory profiles with a higher PaO2/FiO2 (254 mmHg vs 191 mmHg; p=0.023). By 28 days from admission, 49.2% (95% CI: 39.6-58.9%) of males vs. 31.7% (17.9-45.4%) of females underwent IMV or death (log-rank p-value Conclusions Our analysis confirms a difference in the risk of COVID-19 clinical progression by sex and provides a hypothesis for potential mechanisms leading to this. CRP showed a predominant role to mediate the difference in risk by sex.

Objective: Adherence to lipid-lowering drugs could be challenging in our patients as it is in the general population, which is described as low as 25%. Our aim was to evaluate adherence to statins and to investigate clinical event impact on it. Methods: This retrospective study on HIV+ patients attending to Clinic of Modena (Italy) was conducted in order to evaluate characteristics, clinical events, and adherence on lipid-lowering drugs. All drugs for comorbidities are distributed by the hospital pharmacy and recorded in an electronical database. Adherence was also evaluated in patients who were supplied with antilipemics in external pharmacies through phone calls. Patients were considered adherent if the percentage of correct time of drug refill was >80%. Findings: Totally 1123 patients were evaluated. Lipid-lowering drugs (statins, fenofibrate, and omega-3 oil) were prescribed in 242 patients (21.5%). Prescription occurred mainly in those who were older, males, and Italians. Two hundred of them (82.6%) used statins alone, 23 (9.5%) only fenofibrate or omega-3 oil, and 19 (7.8%) a combination of both drugs. The median adherence was 90% while patients with adherence >80% resulted 153 (63.2%). Forty-six (19%) had a clinical history of cardiovascular events; 59% of them, placed in secondary prophylaxis, and 76%, already in treatment, continued to adhere. No differences in terms of adherence according to the type of drug distribution (hospital pharmacy or outside pharmacies) were found. Conclusion: Linking the supply of these drugs to that of antiretrovirals led to a good level of adherence higher than that described in the general population. The majority of the patients who experienced a cardiovascular event remain adherent to the prescribed therapy.

Background & Aims There are limited data on patients with chronic HCV infection in whom combination voxilaprevir (VOX), velpatasvir (VEL), sofosbuvir (SOF) retreatment fails. Thus, we aimed to assess treatment failure and rescue treatment options in these patients. Methods Samples from 40 patients with HCV genotypes (GT) 1-4 in whom VOX/VEL/SOF retreatment failed were collected within the European Resistance Study Group. Population-based resistance analyses were conducted and clinical parameters and retreatment efficacies were evaluated retrospectively in 22 patients. Results Most VOX/VEL/SOF failure patients were infected with HCV GT3a (n = 18, 45%) or GT1a (n = 11, 28%) and had cirrhosis (n = 28, 70%). Previous treatments included an NS3-inhibitor (30%), an NS5A-inhibitor (100%) and SOF (85%). Baseline RAS data from a subgroup of patients before VOX/VEL/SOF retreatment (78%) showed few NS3 RASs apart from Q80K in GT1a (40%), typical NS5A RAS patterns in most patients (74%) and no S282T in NS5B. Sequencing after VOX/VEL/SOF failure was available in 98% of patients and showed only minor changes for NS3 and NS5A RASs. In 22 patients, rescue treatment was initiated with glecaprevir, pibrentasvir alone (n = 2) or with SOF±ribavirin (n = 15), VOX/VEL/SOF±ribavirin (n = 4) or VEL/SOF and ribavirin (n = 1) for 12 to 24 weeks. Sustained virologic response was achieved in 17/21 (81%) patients with a final treatment outcome. Of these, 2 GT3a-infected patients had virologic failure after rescue treatment with VEL/SOF or glecaprevir/pibrentasvir+SOF+ribavirin, and 2 patients with cirrhosis died during treatment or before reaching SVR12. Conclusions VOX/VEL/SOF failure was mainly observed in HCV GT3- and GT1a-infected patients with cirrhosis and was not associated with specific RAS patterns within NS3, NS5A or NS5B target regions. Rescue treatment with multiple targeted therapies was effective in most patients. Lay summary The advent of direct-acting antivirals has enabled the effective cure of chronic hepatitis C in most patients. However, treatment failure occurs in some patients, who are often retreated with a combination regimen called VOX/VEL/SOF, which is associated with very high rates of cure. However, VOX/VEL/SOF retreatment also fails in some patients. Herein, we analysed samples from patients in whom VOX/VEL/SOF retreatment failed and we assessed the efficacy of different rescue therapies, showing that rescue treatment is effective in most patients (81%).

BACKGROUND Syphilis represents a major public health concern disproportionately affecting HIV positive patients and in many cases both infections are newly diagnosed at the same time. To date, limited studies are available on syphilis incidence in patients with a new HIV diagnosis. METHODS Patients newly diagnosed with HIV in 2010-2018 were included in the study and screening tests for syphilis were performed at baseline and at least once a year. Primary aims were to analyse the incidence rate of HIV-syphilis co-infection and syphilis re-infection. Secondary objective was to identify characteristics independently associated with co-infection and re-infection. RESULTS Of 500 newly diagnosed HIV patients, 20% presented a concomitant positive syphilis serology. Among them, 54 patients had a serology indicative for an active syphilis requiring therapy, while 46 had a history of prior treatments. The independent factors for syphilis acquisition were: MSM contact (OR:2.64; 95%CI 1.48-4.72; p

Objectives This study evaluated the emergence of mutations associated with integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) resistance (INSTI-RMs) and the integrase evolution in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infected patients treated with this drug class. Methods The emergence of INSTI-RMs and integrase evolution (estimated as genetic distance between integrase sequences under INSTI treatment and before INSTI treatment) were evaluated in 107 INSTI-naive patients (19 drug-naive and 88 drug-experienced) with two plasma genotypic resistance tests: one before INSTI treatment and one under INSTI treatment. A logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate factors associated with the integrase evolution under INSTI treatment. Results The patients were mainly infected by B subtype (72.0%). Eighty-seven patients were treated with raltegravir, 13 with dolutegravir and seven with elvitegravir. Before INSTI treatment one patient harboured the major INSTI-RM R263K and three patients the accessory INSTI-RMs T97A. Under INSTI treatment the emergence of ≥1 INSTI-RM was found in 39 (36.4%) patients. The major INSTI-RMs that more frequently emerged were: N155H (17.8%), G140S (8.4%), Y143R (7.5%), Q148H (6.5%), and Y143C (4.7%). Concerning integrase evolution, a higher genetic distance was found in patients with ≥1 INSTI-RM compared with those without emergence of resistance (0.024 [0.012–0.036] vs. 0.015 [0.009–0.024], P = 0.018). This higher integrase evolution was significantly associated with a longer duration of HIV-1 infection, a higher number of past regimens and non-B subtypes. Conclusions These findings confirm that major INSTI-RMs very rarely occur in INSTI-naive patients. Under INSTI treatment, selection of drug-resistance follows the typical drug-resistance pathways; a higher evolution characterises integrase sequences developing drug-resistance compared with those without any resistance.

Cardiovascular complications after a SARS-CoV-2 infection are a phenomenon of relevant scientific interest. The aim of this study was to analyze the onset of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular events in patients hospitalized in a tertiary care center. This is a retrospective study conducted on patients hospitalized over a period of three months. The patients were older than 18 years of age and had a diagnosis of COVID-19 infection confirmed from a nasopharyngeal swab sample. Anamnestic and clinical-laboratory data were collected. Cardiovascular events at 30 days were defined as follows: arrhythmias, myocardial infarction, myocarditis, and pulmonary embolism. Univariate analysis (Student’s t-test or Mann-Whitney U test, as appropriate) and multivariate analysis (multinomial logistic regression) were applied to the data. A total of 394 patients were included; they were mostly males and had a median age of 65.5 years. Previous cardiovascular disease was present in 14.7% of patients. Oxygen therapy was required for 77.9%, and 53% received anticoagulant therapy. The overall 30-day mortality was 20.3%. A cardiovascular event developed in 15.7% of the subjects. These were mainly pulmonary embolism (9.4%), followed by arrhythmias (3.3%), myocardial infarction (2.3%), and myocarditis (0.8%). Patients who developed cardiovascular events upon univariate analysis were significantly older, with major comorbidities, a more compromised respiratory situation, and a higher mortality rate. Multivariate analysis revealed independent factors that were significantly associated with the development of cardiovascular events: hypertension, endotracheal intubation, and age older than 75 years. In patients with COVID-19, the development of a cardiovascular event occurs quite frequently and is mainly seen in elderly subjects with comorbidities (especially hypertension) in the presence of a severe respiratory picture.

The use of drugs that affect the cell cycle represents one of the common strategies for the control of some unrelated pathologies, such as chronic viral HIV infections or cancer. The authors report the case of a patient followed for a hormone receptor-positive (HR+)/HER2 negative (HER2-) advanced breast cancer, treated with hormone therapy and CDK 4/6 inhibitors, and a concomitant HIV infection under antiretroviral treatment. The authors consider the function of the sterile alpha motif and HD domain-containing protein-1 (SAMHD1) enzyme, its implications in the control of viral replication and the correlation between its activity and the mechanism of action of the CDK 4/6 inhibitor palbociclib.

The occurrence of COVID-19 pandemic had a significant negative effect on health care systems over the last year. Health care providers were forced to focus mainly on COVID-19 patients, neglecting in many cases equally important diseases, both acute and chronic. Therefore, also screening and diagnostic strategies for HIV could have been significantly impaired. This retrospective, multicenter, observational study aimed at assessing the number and characteristics of new HIV/AIDS diagnoses during COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and compared characteristics of people living with HIV at diagnosis between pre- and post-COVID-19 era (2019 vs 2020). Our results showed a significant reduction of HIV diagnoses during pandemic. By contrast, people living with HIV during pandemic were older and were diagnosed in earlier stage of disease (considering CD4+ T cell count) compared to those who were diagnosed the year before. Moreover, there was a significant decrease of new HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men, probably for the impact of social distancing and restriction applied by the Italian Government. Late presentation incidence, if numbers in 2020 were lower than those in 2019, is still an issue. Routinely performing HIV testing in patients with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection is identifying and linking to care underdiagnosed people living with HIV earlier. Thus, combined tests (HIV and SARS-CoV-2) should be implemented in patients with SARS-CoV-2 symptoms overlapping HIV's ones. Lastly, our results lastly showed how urgent implementation of a national policy for HIV screening is necessary.

ObjectivesTo evaluate HIV-1 tropism in 1382 combined antiretroviral therapy (cART)-experienced patients failing therapy to characterize those with exhausted therapeutic options.MethodsHIV-1 genotypic tropism was inferred through Geno2Pheno by estimating the false-positive-rate (FPR) values. Cumulative resistance and drug activity were evaluated by Stanford algorithm.ResultsOverall, median (IQR) CD4 count (cells/mm3) nadir and at last genotypic resistance test (GRT) available were 98 (33–211) and 312 (155–517), respectively. Considering HIV-1 tropism, 30.5% had X4/dual-mixed strains (FPR ≤5%: 22.2%; FPR 5%–10%: 8.3%). By stratifying according to tropism, by decreasing FPR, a significant decrease of CD4 nadir and at last GRT was observed. The proportion of individuals with CD4 count ConclusionsOur findings showed that a small proportion of cART failing individuals have limited therapeutic options. However, tropism determination might help to identify people who have accumulated a high level of resistance and have a greater risk of advanced disease.

We reported the efficacy and safety data for daclatasvir (DCV)-based all-oral antiviral therapy in patients treated in the Italian compassionate-use program. 275 patients were included (202 male-73.5%, mean age: 57.4 years, 62 HIV-coinfected, 94 with recurrence of hepatitis C post-OLT). Forty-nine patients (17.8%) had Child-Pugh B, Genotype(G) distribution was: G1a:72 patients (26.2%), G1b:137 (49.8%); G3:40 (14.5%) and G4:26 (9.5%). Patients received DCV with sofosbuvir(SOF) (n = 221, 129 with ribavirin(RBV) or with simeprevir (SMV) or asunaprevir (ASU) (n = 54, 19 with RBV) for up to 24 weeks. Logistic regression was used to identify baseline characteristics associated with sustained virological response at week 12 post-treatment (SVR12). Liver function changes between baseline and follow up were assessed in 228 patients. 240 patients achieved SVR12 (87.3%), post transplant and HIV co-infected patients were equally distributed among SVR and no SVR (35% vs 34.3%; p = 0.56 and 24.2% vs 11.4%, p = 0.13, respectively). SVR rate was significantly higher with the combination DCV + SOF compared with DCV + SIM or ASU (93.2% vs 63.0%, p

The TANGO trial demonstrated the efficacy of lamivudine plus dolutegravir in virologically suppressed patients without previous virological failures (VFs). In this dataset from clinical practice investigating the impact of past nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor resistance on this strategy, the combination of M184V/I plus at least 1 thymidine analog-associated mutation significantly increased the risk of VF.

Objectives To compare the efficacy of dolutegravir plus lamivudine dual therapy (DT) with that of dolutegravir plus two NRTIs triple therapy (TT) as switch strategies. Methods A multicentre cohort of HIV-positive, HBsAg-negative patients with viral suppression (HIV-RNA ≤50 copies/mL) switching to DT or TT was retrospectively selected from the ARCA database. The effect of DT versus TT on virological failure (VF; defined as two consecutive HIV-RNA values >50 copies/mL or one HIV-RNA value ≥200 copies/mL) was evaluated by multivariable Cox regression models, overall and after stratifying for the presence of NRTI resistance-associated mutations (RAMs). Results From December 2014 to June 2020, 628 patients were eligible: 118 (18.8%) started tenofovir/emtricitabine/dolutegravir, 306 (48.7%) abacavir/lamivudine/dolutegravir and 204 (32.5%) lamivudine/dolutegravir. The DT group had significantly higher nadir and baseline CD4 counts, a higher duration of viral suppression and a lower prevalence of RAMs at historical genotype. Overall, 41 VF occurred after a median of 1.7 years of follow-up, with a lower, but not statistically significant, rate for DT [versus TT, adjusted HR (aHR) = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.25–1.34]. However, DT was associated with less VF in the absence of RAMs when compared with tenofovir-based TT (aHR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.06–0.67), but not with abacavir-based TT (aHR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.17–1.11). Conversely, in the setting of pre-existing M184V/I, DT showed a trend to increased risk of VF (versus tenofovir-based TT, aHR = 137.50, 95% CI = 4.24–4464.06; versus abacavir-based TT, aHR = 33.88, 95% CI = 1.75–656.47). Conclusions Lamivudine/dolutegravir maintenance DT showed similar efficacy to dolutegravir-based TT; however, past M184V/I may favour VF.

We compared 90–90–90 targets in 2020, during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with the targets across the period 2017–2019 in people with HIV. We observed a significant loss in the 90–90–90 objectives in 2020 when compared with 2017–2019 that might be attributable to the COVID-19 crisis.

OBJECTIVES We evaluated the virological response and resistance profile in combined antiretroviral therapy (cART)-experienced HIV-1-infected patients starting a dual therapy with dolutegravir (DTG) and boosted darunavir (bDRV) for the first time. METHODS Survival analyses were used to evaluate virological success (VS) and virological rebound (VR) in viraemic and virologically suppressed patients, respectively. Major resistance mutations (MRMs) and genotypic susceptibility score (GSS) were evaluated at baseline and after switch. RESULTS Overall, 130 patients [62 (47.7%) viraemic; 68 (52.3%) virologically suppressed] were retrospectively analysed. At the moment of switch, 81.5% accumulated one or more MRM [protease inhibitor (PI), 35.7%; nucleoside(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), 77.5%; non-NRTI, 69.0%; integrase inhibitor (INI), 10.1%), but 77.7% harboured strains fully susceptible to DTG + bDRV. In viraemic patients, the overall probability of VS by 12 months of treatment was 91.7%. In virologically suppressed patients, the overall probability of VR was 10.5% by 24 months after therapy start. Patients with previous time under virological suppression ≤ 6 months showed a higher VR probability compared with others (37.5% vs. 6.7%, P

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) changed management of non-small-cell lung cancer, but resistance usually develops. Today, at ICIs failure, chemotherapy is the treatment of choice, but the chance of immunotherapy rechallenge is appealing. Another challenging issue is whether it is safe to treat HIV-positive patients with ICIs: safety and efficacy of immunotherapy have been marginally considered in this subgroup. We report the case of a non-small-cell lung cancer patient treated by PD-1 inhibitors rechallenge despite his HIV-positivity, achieving good partial response with significant clinical benefit and without toxicities. Our experience underlines that HIV-positive patients can be treated similarly to HIV-negative individuals. HIV-positivity should be considered similar to other comorbidities, and not as a sufficient reason to preclude them the best available treatments.

Little is known about long-term maintenance of virologic suppression in HIV migrants in Italy. The study aims to compare virologic failure rates and associated factors among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive migrants and natives enrolled in the ARCA database since 2007 who achieved virologic suppression within 18 months from the beginning of the ART. Kaplan-Meier method assessed the probability of virologic suppression and failure. Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis. Of 2515 patients, 2020 (80.3%) were Italian, 286 (10.6%) migrants from low-income countries, of whom 201 (75.0%) from Africa, and 227 (9.0%) from high-income-countries. The median follow-up was 4.5 years (IQR 2.5-7). No difference was observed in the time of achievement of virological suppression in the three groups (log-rank: p = 0.5687). Higher probability of virologic failure was observed in Africans compared to Italians, to patients from high-income-countries and from low-income-countries other than Africans (Log-rank = p < 0.001). In the adjusted analysis, a higher virologic failure risk was found in Africans only compared to Italians. [HR 4.01; 95% CI 2.44-6.56, p < 0.001]. In Italy, African migrants are less likely to maintain virologic suppression compared to natives and other migrants. Targeted interventions could be needed for foreigners, especially for Africans.

Aims The aim of this study was to estimate a 48 hour prediction of moderate to severe respiratory failure, requiring mechanical ventilation, in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods This was an observational prospective study that comprised consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to hospital from 21 February to 6 April 2020. The patients’ medical history, demographic, epidemiologic and clinical data were collected in an electronic patient chart. The dataset was used to train predictive models using an established machine learning framework leveraging a hybrid approach where clinical expertise is applied alongside a data-driven analysis. The study outcome was the onset of moderate to severe respiratory failure defined as PaO2/FiO2 ratio Results A total of 198 patients contributed to generate 1068 usable observations which allowed to build 3 predictive models based respectively on 31-variables signs and symptoms, 39-variables laboratory biomarkers and 91-variables as a composition of the two. A fourth “boosted mixed model” included 20 variables was selected from the model 3, achieved the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.84) without worsening the FN rate. Its clinical performance was applied in a narrative case report as an example. Conclusion This study developed a machine model with 84% prediction accuracy, which is able to assist clinicians in decision making process and contribute to develop new analytics to improve care at high technology readiness levels.

Objectives: Although outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been evaluated in randomized controlled trials, experiences from subpopulations defined by age, CD4 count or viral load (VL) in heterogeneous real-world settings are limited. Methods: The study design was an international multicohort collaboration. Logistic regression was used to compare virological and immunological outcomes at 12±3months after starting ART with an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI), contemporary nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or boosted protease inhibitor (PI/b) with two nucleos(t)ides after 1 January 2012. The composite treatment outcome (cTO) defined success as VL'200 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL with no regimen change and no AIDS/death events. Immunological success was defined as a CD4count '750cells/μL or a 33% increase where the baseline CD4 count was ≥500 cells/μL. Poisson regression compared clinical failures (AIDS/death≥14days after starting ART). Interactions between ART class and age, CD4 count, and VL were determined for each endpoint. Results: Of 5198 ART-naïve persons in the International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Diseases (RESPOND), 45.4% started INSTIs, 26.0% PI/b and 28.7% NNRTIs; 880 (17.4%) were aged ' 50years, 2539 (49.4%) had CD4 counts '350 cells/μL and 1891 (36.8%) had VL'100000 copies/mL. Differences in virological and immunological success and clinical failure among ART classes were similar across age groups (≤ 40, 40–50 and '50 years), CD4 count categories (≤ 350 vs. '350 cells/μL) and VL categories at ART initiation (≤ 100000 vs. '100000copies/mL), with all investigated interactions being nonsignificant (P'0.05). Conclusions: Differences among ART classes in virological, immunological and clinical outcomes in ART-naïve participants were consistent irrespective of age, immune suppression or VL at ART initiation. While confounding by indication cannot be excluded, this provides reassuring evidence that such subpopulations will equally benefit from contemporary ART.

Virological response and resistance profile were evaluated in drug-naïve patients starting their first-line integrase inhibitors (INIs)-based regimen in a clinical setting.Virological success (VS) and virological rebound (VR) after therapy start were assessed by survival analyses. Drug-resistance was evaluated at baseline and at virological failure.Among 798 patients analysed, 38.6 %, 27.1 % and 34.3 % received raltegravir, elvitegravir and dolutegravir, respectively. Baseline resistance to NRTIs, NNRTIs, PIs and INIs was: 3.9 %, 13.9 %, 1.6 % and 0.5 %, respectively. Overall, by 12 months of treatment, the probability of VS was 95 %, while the probability of VR by 36 months after VS was 13.1 %. No significant differences in the virological response were found according to the INI used. The higher pre-therapy viremia strata was (100,000 vs. 100,000-500,000 vs.500,000 copies/mL), lower was the probability of VS (96.0 % vs. 95.2 % vs. 91.1 %, respectively, P0.001), and higher the probability of VR (10.2 % vs. 15.8 % vs. 16.6 %, respectively, P = 0.010). CD4 cell count200 cell/mmOur findings confirm that patients receiving an INI-based first-line regimen achieve and maintain very high rates of VS in clinical practice.

Objectives Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRMs) could increase the risk of virological failure (VF) of first-line integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimens. Methods Patients starting two NRTIs (lamivudine/emtricitabine plus abacavir/tenofovir) plus raltegravir or dolutegravir were selected from the EuResist cohort. The role of NRTI genotypic susceptibility score and of specific TDRMs in VF (i.e. two consecutive viral loads > 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL or a single viral load ≥ 200 copies/mL after 3 months from antiretroviral therapy start) was evaluated in the overall population and according to the InSTI employed. Results From 2008 to 2017, 1095 patients were eligible for the analysis (55.5% men, median age 39 years). In all, 207 VFs occurred over 1023 patient-years of follow-up. The genotypic susceptibility score (GSS) had no effect on the risk of VF in the overall population. However, the presence of M184V/I independently predicted VF of raltegravir- but not dolutegravir-based therapy when compared with a fully-active backbone [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 3.09, P = 0.035], particularly when associated with other non-thymidine analogue mutations (aHR = 27.62, P = 0.004). Higher-zenith HIV-RNA and lower nadir CD4 counts independently predicted VF. Conclusions NRTI backbone TDRMs increased the risk of VF with raltegravir-based but not dolutegravir-based regimens.

ObjectivesTo evaluate the prevalence and therapeutic relevance of drug resistance among isolates from ART-experienced HIV-1-infected patients over the past two decades in Italy.MethodsDynamics of resistance to one, two and three or more antiretroviral classes were evaluated from 1999–2018. Virological success (VS) after the latest therapy switch was evaluated according to cumulative class resistance and cumulative genotypic susceptibility score (Stanford HIV_DB algorithm).ResultsAmong 13 663 isolates (from 6739 patients), resistance to at least one drug class decreased sharply from 1999 to 2010 (≤2001, 84.6%; 2010, 43.6%; P ConclusionsA dramatic drop of HIV-1 drug resistance at failure has been achieved over the last two decades in Italy; resistance to three or more classes is low but present among currently failing patients. Its management still requires a rational and careful diagnostic and therapeutic approach.

Background An increase in pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) to first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income countries has been recently described. Herein we analyse the prevalence of PDR and risk of virological failure (VF) over time among migrants to Italy enrolled in ARCA. Methods HIV-1 sequences from ART-naive patients of non-Italian nationality were retrieved from ARCA database from 1998 to 2017. PDR was defined by at least one mutation from the reference 2009 WHO surveillance list. Results Protease/reverse transcriptase sequences from 1,155 patients, mainly migrants from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA; 42%), followed by Latin America (LA; 25%) and Western countries (WE; 21%), were included. PDR was detected in 8.6% of sequences (13.1% versus 5.8% for B and non-B strains, respectively; PConclusions PDR appeared to be stable over the years in migrants to Italy enrolled in ARCA; however, it still remains an important cause of VF together with viral load at diagnosis.

Background: No therapy is approved for COVID-19 pneumonia. The aim of this study was to assess the role of tocilizumab in reducing the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation and death in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia who received standard of care treatment. Methods: This retrospective, observational cohort study included adults (≥18 years) with severe COVID-19 pneumonia who were admitted to tertiary care centres in Bologna and Reggio Emilia, Italy, between Feb 21 and March 24, 2020, and a tertiary care centre in Modena, Italy, between Feb 21 and April 30, 2020. All patients were treated with the standard of care (ie, supplemental oxygen, hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, antiretrovirals, and low molecular weight heparin), and a non-randomly selected subset of patients also received tocilizumab. Tocilizumab was given either intravenously at 8 mg/kg bodyweight (up to a maximum of 800 mg) in two infusions, 12 h apart, or subcutaneously at 162 mg administered in two simultaneous doses, one in each thigh (ie, 324 mg in total), when the intravenous formulation was unavailable. The primary endpoint was a composite of invasive mechanical ventilation or death. Treatment groups were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis after adjusting for sex, age, recruiting centre, duration of symptoms, and baseline Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. Findings: Of 1351 patients admitted, 544 (40%) had severe COVID-19 pneumonia and were included in the study. 57 (16%) of 365 patients in the standard care group needed mechanical ventilation, compared with 33 (18%) of 179 patients treated with tocilizumab (p=0·41; 16 [18%] of 88 patients treated intravenously and 17 [19%] of 91 patients treated subcutaneously). 73 (20%) patients in the standard care group died, compared with 13 (7%; p