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Summary: Background: People with diabetes are at increased risk of hospitalisation, morbidity, and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Long-term outcomes for people with diabetes previously hospitalised with COVID-19 are, however, unknown. This study aimed to determine the longer-term physical and mental health effects of COVID-19 in people with and without diabetes. Methods: The PHOSP-COVID study is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults discharged from hospital between 1 February 2020 and 31 March 2021 in the UK following COVID-19, involving detailed assessment at 5 and 12 months after discharge. The association between diabetes status and outcomes were explored using multivariable linear and logistic regressions. Findings: People with diabetes who survived hospital admission with COVID-19 display worse physical outcomes compared to those without diabetes at 5- and 12-month follow-up. People with diabetes displayed higher fatigue (only at 5 months), frailty, lower physical performance, and health-related quality of life and poorer cognitive function. Differences in outcomes between diabetes status groups were largely consistent from 5 to 12-months. In regression models, differences at 5 and 12 months were attenuated after adjustment for BMI and presence of other long-term conditions. Interpretation: People with diabetes reported worse physical outcomes up to 12 months after hospital discharge with COVID-19 compared to those without diabetes. These data support the need to reduce inequalities in long-term physical and mental health effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection in people with diabetes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research. The study was approved by the Leeds West Research Ethics Committee (20/YH/0225) and is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107).

Background The long-term outcomes of COVID-19 hospitalisation in individuals with pre-existing airway diseases are unknown. Methods Adult participants hospitalised for confirmed or clinically suspected COVID-19 and discharged between 5 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 were recruited to the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 (PHOSP-COVID) study. Participants attended research visits at 5 months and 1 year post discharge. Clinical characteristics, perceived recovery, burden of symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of individuals with pre-existing airway disease (i.e., asthma, COPD or bronchiectasis) were compared to the non-airways group. Results A total of 615 out of 2697 (22.8%) participants had a history of pre-existing airway diseases (72.0% diagnosed with asthma, 22.9% COPD and 5.1% bronchiectasis). At 1 year, the airways group participants were less likely to feel fully recovered (20.4% versus 33.2%, p

Summary: Background: The scale of COVID-19 and its well documented long-term sequelae support a need to understand long-term outcomes including frailty. Methods: This prospective cohort study recruited adults who had survived hospitalisation with clinically diagnosed COVID-19 across 35 sites in the UK (PHOSP-COVID). The burden of frailty was objectively measured using Fried's Frailty Phenotype (FFP). The primary outcome was the prevalence of each FFP group—robust (no FFP criteria), pre-frail (one or two FFP criteria) and frail (three or more FFP criteria)—at 5 months and 1 year after discharge from hospital. For inclusion in the primary analysis, participants required complete outcome data for three of the five FFP criteria. Longitudinal changes across frailty domains are reported at 5 months and 1 year post-hospitalisation, along with risk factors for frailty status. Patient-perceived recovery and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were retrospectively rated for pre-COVID-19 and prospectively rated at the 5 month and 1 year visits. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN10980107. Findings: Between March 5, 2020, and March 31, 2021, 2419 participants were enrolled with FFP data. Mean age was 57.9 (SD 12.6) years, 933 (38.6%) were female, and 429 (17.7%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation. 1785 had measures at both timepoints, of which 240 (13.4%), 1138 (63.8%) and 407 (22.8%) were frail, pre-frail and robust, respectively, at 5 months compared with 123 (6.9%), 1046 (58.6%) and 616 (34.5%) at 1 year. Factors associated with pre-frailty or frailty were invasive mechanical ventilation, older age, female sex, and greater social deprivation. Frail participants had a larger reduction in HRQoL compared with before their COVID-19 illness and were less likely to describe themselves as recovered. Interpretation: Physical frailty and pre-frailty are common following hospitalisation with COVID-19. Improvement in frailty was seen between 5 and 12 months although two-thirds of the population remained pre-frail or frail. This suggests comprehensive assessment and interventions targeting pre-frailty and frailty beyond the initial illness are required. Funding: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Abstract Background The secretion of soluble factors enables communication between tumour cells and the surrounding microenvironment and plays an important role in oncogenesis. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is characterised by a highly reactive microenvironment, harbouring a variety of cell types, including S100A8/S100A9-expressing monocytes. S100A8/S100A9 proteins regulate the behaviour of cancer cells by inducing pre-metastatic cascades associated with cancer spread. The aim of this study was to examine how S100A8/A9 proteins mediate tumour-stroma crosstalk in PDAC. Methods Cytokine profiling of pancreatic cancer cell-derived conditioned media was performed using Bio-Plex Pro 27 Plex Human Cytokine assays. Protein expression and activation of downstream signalling effectors and NF-κB were assessed by western blotting analysis and reporter assays respectively. Results Stimulation of cultured pancreatic cancer cells with S100A8 and S100A9 increased the secretion of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-8, TNF-α, and FGF. S100A8, but not S100A9 induced PDGF secretion. Conversely, pancreatic cancer cell-derived conditioned media and the individual cytokines, TNF-α and TGF-β induced the expression of S100A8 and S100A9 proteins in the HL-60 monocytic cell line and primary human monocytes, while FGF and IL-8 induced the expression of S100A9 only. S100A8 and S100A9 activated MAPK and NF-κB signalling in pancreatic cancer. This was partially mediated via activation of the receptor of advanced glycosylation end-product (RAGE). Conclusion S100A8 and S100A9 proteins induce specific cytokine secretion from PDAC cells, which in turn enhances the expression of S100A8/A9. This paracrine crosstalk could have implications for PDAC invasiveness and metastatic potential.

Background Pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cardiovascular risk factors have been associated with an increased risk of complications following hospitalisation with COVID-19, but their impact on the rate of recovery following discharge is not known.Objectives To determine whether the rate of patient-perceived recovery following hospitalisation with COVID-19 was affected by the presence of CVD or cardiovascular risk factors.Methods In a multicentre prospective cohort study, patients were recruited following discharge from the hospital with COVID-19 undertaking two comprehensive assessments at 5 months and 12 months. Patients were stratified by the presence of either CVD or cardiovascular risk factors prior to hospitalisation with COVID-19 and compared with controls with neither. Full recovery was determined by the response to a patient-perceived evaluation of full recovery from COVID-19 in the context of physical, physiological and cognitive determinants of health.Results From a total population of 2545 patients (38.8% women), 472 (18.5%) and 1355 (53.2%) had CVD or cardiovascular risk factors, respectively. Compared with controls (n=718), patients with CVD and cardiovascular risk factors were older and more likely to have had severe COVID-19. Full recovery was significantly lower at 12 months in patients with CVD (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.62, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.89) and cardiovascular risk factors (aOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.86).Conclusion Patients with CVD or cardiovascular risk factors had a delayed recovery at 12 months following hospitalisation with COVID-19. Targeted interventions to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in patients with cardiovascular disease remain an unmet need.Trail registration number ISRCTN10980107.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is frequently diagnosed in its late stages when treatment options are limited. Unlike other common cancers, there are no population-wide screening programmes for PDAC. Thus, early disease detection, although urgently needed, remains elusive. Individuals in certain high-risk groups are, however, offered screening or surveillance. Here we explore advances in understanding high-risk groups for PDAC and efforts to implement biomarker-driven detection of PDAC in these groups. We review current approaches to early detection biomarker development and the use of artificial intelligence as applied to electronic health records (EHRs) and social media. Finally, we address the cost-effectiveness of applying biomarker strategies for early detection of PDAC., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest EC, LO and WG are named as an inventor on patent WO2020169511A1, submitted by the University of Liverpool, that covers the measurement of adiponectin and IL-1Ra as a biomarker for early detection of pancreatic cancer. LO is supported by Cancer Research UK and Pancreatic Cancer UK. SP received consultancy fee from AlphaTau and a speaker fee from Fresenius Kabi. GBH is the founder of a cancer diagnostic company and is named on patents related to volatile biomarkers. AT participates in the clinical trial “New Biomarkers in Pancreatic Cancer Using EXPEL Concept (PANEXPEL)”; NCT03791073. The other authors report no declarations of interest. AP and PA are funded by the European Union – Next Generation EU, Misison 4 Component 2 Inv. 1.5 CUP: B13D21011850006. BR is supported by the Czech Health Research Council grant no. NW24-03-00024 and the National Institute for Cancer Research – NICR (Programme EXCELES, ID Project No. LX22NPO5102) – Funded by the European Union – Next Generation EU. GH is a founder of a cancer diagnostic company and named on patents related to volatile biomarkers. RVDM is funded by Cancer Research UK (CRUK) funding for “Detecting pancreatic cancer in the largest high-risk group for this disease: A top-down approach (CRUK Early Detection Programme); £100,018.00; 01/04/2019 – 30/06/2025. The study sponsor had no involvement in any aspects of the study. Conflict of Interest EC, LO and WG are named as an inventor on patent WO2020169511A1, submitted by the University of Liverpool, that covers the measurement of adiponectin and IL-1Ra as a biomarker for early detection of pancreatic cancer. LO is supported by Cancer Research UK and Pancreatic Cancer UK. SP received consultancy fee from AlphaTau and a speaker fee from Fresenius Kabi. GBH is the founder of a cancer diagnostic company and is named on patents related to volatile biomarkers. AT participates in the clinical trial “New Biomarkers in Pancreatic Cancer Using EXPEL Concept (PANEXPEL)”; NCT03791073. The other authors report no declarations of interest. AP and PA are funded by the European Union – Next Generation EU, Misison 4 Component 2 Inv. 1.5 CUP: B13D21011850006. BR is supported by the Czech Health Research Council grant no. NW24-03-00024 and the National Institute for Cancer Research – NICR (Programme EXCELES, ID Project No. LX22NPO5102) – Funded by the European Union – Next Generation EU. GH is a founder of a cancer diagnostic company and named on patents related to volatile biomarkers. RVDM is funded by Cancer Research UK (CRUK) funding for “Detecting pancreatic cancer in the largest high-risk group for this disease: A top-down approach (CRUK Early Detection Programme); £100,018.00; 01/04/2019 – 30/06/2025. The study sponsor had no involvement in any aspects of the study., (Copyright © 2025. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal cancers with patients having unresectable or metastatic disease at diagnosis, with poor prognosis and very short survival. Given that genetic variation within autophagy-related genes influences autophagic flux and susceptibility to solid cancers, we decided to investigate whether 55,583 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 234 autophagy-related genes could influence the risk of developing PDAC in three large independent cohorts of European ancestry including 12,754 PDAC cases and 324,926 controls. The meta-analysis of these populations identified, for the first time, the association of the BID rs9604789 variant with an increased risk of developing the disease (OR Meta  = 1.31, p = 9.67 × 10 -6 ). We also confirmed the association of TP63 rs1515496 and TP63 rs35389543 variants with PDAC risk (OR = 0.89, p = 6.27 × 10 -8 and OR = 1.16, p = 2.74 × 10 -5 ). Although it is known that BID induces autophagy and TP63 promotes cell growth, cell motility and invasion, we also found that carriers of the TP63 rs1515496G allele had increased numbers of FOXP3+ Helios+ T regulatory cells and CD45RA+ T regulatory cells (p = 7.67 × 10 -4 and p = 1.56 × 10 -3 ), but also decreased levels of CD4+ T regulatory cells (p = 7.86 × 10 -4 ). These results were in agreement with research suggesting that the TP63 rs1515496 variant alters binding sites for FOXA1 and CTCF, which are transcription factors involved in modulating specific subsets of regulatory T cells. In conclusion, this study identifies BID as new susceptibility locus for PDAC and confirms previous studies suggesting that the TP63 gene is involved in the development of PDAC. This study also suggests new pathogenic mechanisms of the TP63 locus in PDAC., (© 2024 The Author(s). International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Background: In patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring supplemental oxygen, dexamethasone reduces acute severity and improves survival, but longer-term effects are unknown. We hypothesised that systemic corticosteroid administration during acute COVID-19 would be associated with improved health-related quality of life (HRQoL) 1 year after discharge., Methods: Adults admitted to hospital between February 2020 and March 2021 for COVID-19 and meeting current guideline recommendations for dexamethasone treatment were included using two prospective UK cohort studies (Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium). HRQoL, assessed by the EuroQol-Five Dimensions-Five Levels utility index (EQ-5D-5L UI), pre-hospital and 1 year after discharge were compared between those receiving corticosteroids or not after propensity weighting for treatment. Secondary outcomes included patient-reported recovery, physical and mental health status, and measures of organ impairment. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to account for survival and selection bias., Findings: Of the 1888 participants included in the primary analysis, 1149 received corticosteroids. There was no between-group difference in EQ-5D-5L UI at 1 year (mean difference 0.004, 95% CI -0.026-0.034). A similar reduction in EQ-5D-5L UI was seen at 1 year between corticosteroid exposed and nonexposed groups (mean±sd change -0.12±0.22 versus -0.11±0.22). Overall, there were no differences in secondary outcome measures. After sensitivity analyses modelled using a cohort of 109 318 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, EQ-5D-5L UI at 1 year remained similar between the two groups., Interpretation: Systemic corticosteroids for acute COVID-19 have no impact on the large reduction in HRQoL 1 year after hospital discharge. Treatments to address the persistent reduction in HRQoL are urgently needed., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: O.C. Leavy declares that their institute received joint funding from UKRI and NIHR (MR/V027859/1 and COV0319) to complete this work. A.B. Docherty declares that they were awarded funding from a Wellcome Clinical Research Career Development Fellowship (216606/Z/19/Z) to complete this work. A Sheikh declares that their institute was awarded grant funding from NIHR and UKRI to complete this work; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for AstraZeneca's Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Taskforce; and leadership or fiduciary roles for UK and Scottish Government COVID-19 advisory groups. C.E. Bolton declares that their institute received grant funding from NIHR/UKRI and NIHR to complete this work; and their institute received grant funding from Nottingham Hospitals Charity and University of Nottingham. G. Choudhury declares funding from GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca; received honoraria for delivering talks from GSK, AZ, Chiesi and BI; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board as Chair on the Act on COPD Programme for AZ in Scotland; and a leadership or fiduciary role as Chair for the Lothian Respiratory Managed Clinical Network. N.D. Bakerly declares they have received nonrestrictive educational grants from Chiesi, AZ and Teva for attending conferences; honoraria from Teva, AZ and GSK; support for attending meetings and/or travel from Chiesi and AZ; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for Teva; and receipt of equipment from Global Access Diagnostics (previously Mologic Inc). A. Shikotra declares that their institute was awarded joint funding from UKRI and the NIHR (MR/V027859/1 and COV0319) to complete this work. R. Aul declares lecture fees and support for attending a meeting from Boehringer Ingelheim. C. Echevarria declares a grant from GSK. J.R. Hurst declares funding from AstraZeneca; consulting fees from AstraZeneca and GSK; payment for lectures and presentations from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Chiesi, Sanofi and Takeda; support for attending meetings and/or travel from AstraZeneca; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for AstraZeneca; and receipt of equipment from Nonin. M. Jones declares funding from the MRC to complete this work; funding from the MRC, British Lung Foundation and Boehringer Ingelheim; consulting fees from Skyhawk Therapeutics; and a leadership or fiduciary role in the AAIR Charity Scientific Committee. P. Pfeffer declares funding from NIHR. S. Rowland-Jones declares that their institute received funding from UKRI to complete this work; and their institute received funding from NIHR Sheffield Biomedical Research centre, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, UKRI (MRC) and EDCTP. D. Parekh declares funding from NIHR and MRC; and a leadership or fiduciary role for the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine Board. A.A.R. Thompson declares that their institute was awarded a fellowship from the British Heart Foundation, and grant funding from Heart Research UK and the National Institute for Health and Care Research; payment for lectures and presentations from Janssen-Cilag Ltd; and support for attending meetings from Janssen-Cilag Ltd. M.J. Davies declares grant funding from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca and Janssen; consulting fees from Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novo Nordisk and Sanofi; payment for speaking for Boehringer Ingelheim, Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, AstraZeneca, Amgen, Napp Pharmaceuticals and Novartis; and is an advisory board member for Boehringer Ingelheim, Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Lexicon, Pfizer, Medtronic and ShouTi Pharma Inc., and Zealand Pharma. A. De Soyza declares that their institute was awarded grant funding from AstraZeneca, Bayer, GSK, Chiesi, Novartis and Pfizer, outside the submitted manuscript; consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Bayer, GSK, Chiesi, Novartis, Pfizer, Insmed and Gilead; payment for lectures and presentations from AstraZeneca, Bayer, GSK, Chiesi, Novartis, Pfizer, Insmed, Gilead and 30T; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for Bayer; and receipt of drugs from GSK outside the submitted manuscript. S. Heller declares consulting fees from NovoNordisk; and participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for Eli Lilly with payments made to their institution. J. Jacob declares funding from Gilead, Microsoft Research and GlaxoSmithKline; consulting fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, GlaxoSmithKline and NHSX; payment for lectures and presentations received from Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, GlaxoSmithKline and Takeda; support for attending meetings and/or travel from Boehringer Ingelheim; patents planned, issued or pending (UK patent application number 2113765.8 and UK patent application number GB2211487.0); and participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for Boehringer Ingelheim and Roche. R.G. Jenkins declares that their institute received funding from AstraZeneca, Biogen, Galecto, GlaxoSmithKline, Nordic Biosciences, RedX and Pliant; consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Brainomix, Bristol Myers Squibb, Chiesi, Cohbar, Daewoong, GlaxoSmithKline, Veracyte, Resolution Therapeutics and Pliant; payment for lectures and presentations received from Boehringer Ingelheim, Chiesi, Roche, PatientMPower and AstraZeneca; payment for expert testimony from Pinsent Masons LLP; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for Boehringer Ingelheim, Galapagos and Vicore; and a leadership or fiduciary role for NuMedii and is president for Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis. W.D-C. Man declares that their institute received funding from National Institute for Health Research and NHS Accelerated Access Collaborative; and is Honorary President of the Association for Respiratory Technology and Physiology, and an associate editor of ERJ Open Research. G.P. McCann declares funding from NIHR (RP-2017-ST2-007) to complete this work; funding from the British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trust and NIHR; and research support from Resonance Health, Circle CVi and Perspectum. S. Neubauer declares grant funding from Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research centre. P.J.M. Openshaw declares funding from UKRI-MRC/DHSC NIHR and UKRI-BEIS. M.J. Rowland declares support for attending meetings and/or travel from Novartis Pharmaceuticals; stock or stock options from Novartis Pharmaceuticals and Roche Pharmaceuticals; and is employed full time as a Senior Clinical Development Medical Director at Novartis Pharmaceuticals. J. Porter declares funding from Breathing Matters and UCL/H BRC (NIHR), and consulting fees from The Limbic. L.G. Heaney declares that their institute received funding from GSK, AstraZeneca and Roche/Genentech; payment for lectures received from AstraZeneca, Novartis, Roche/Genentech, Sanofi, Circassia, GlaxoSmithKline, Chiesi and Teva; support to travel to meetings from AstraZeneca and GSK; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for Novartis, Roche/Genentech, GSK, Teva and Celltrion; and funding from the NIHR (RfPB grant PB-PG-0317-20032). J.T. Scott declares funding from UKRI. M.G. Semple declares grant funding from National Institute of Health Research UK, Medical Research Council UK and Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, and University of Liverpool to complete this work; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for Pfizer; leadership or fiduciary roles as Chair of Infectious Disease Scientific Advisory Board Integrum Scientific LLC and Director of MedEx Solutions Ltd; stock or stock options as minority owner of Integrum Scientific LLC and majority owner of MedEx Solutions Ltd; receipt of equipment, materials, drugs, medical writing, gifts or other services from Chiesi Farmaceutici SpA; and is a nonremunerated independent member of HMG UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), COVID-19 Response (March 2020 to March 2022) and a nonremunerated independent member of HMG UK New Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) (2014 to July 2023). S.J. Singh declares grants or contracts from NIHR (programme grant (NIHR 202020), Wellcome Doctoral Training Programme, HTA Project Grant (NIHR 131015), NIHR DHSC/UKRI COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative, NIHR Global Research Group (NIHR 17/63/20)), Actegy Limited and NIHR Senior Investigator; payment for presentations for GSK, Ministry of Justice, CIPLA, Sherbourne Gibbs; participation on NICE Expert Adviser Panel (long COVID), Wales Long COVID Advisory Board and NHS-E Long Covid Your Covid Recovery working group; and leadership or fiduciary roles as ATS Pulmonary Rehabilitation Assembly Chair, Clinical Lead RCP Pulmonary Rehabilitation Accreditation Scheme and Clinical Lead NACAP Audit for Pulmonary Rehabilitation. M. Toshner declares grant funding from the NIHR Cambridge BRC and NIHR HTA to complete this work; consulting fees from Janssen; support for attending meetings and/or travel from GSK and Janssen; and participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for ComCov and FluCov. A. Horsley declares that their institute was awarded funding from UK Research and Innovation (MR/V027859/1), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) (COV0319) and NIHR Manchester BRC; and is Chair for the NIHR Translational Research Collaboration. M. Marks declares that their institute received joint funding from UKRI and NIHR to complete this work. K. Poinasamy declares funding from UKRI and NIHR to complete this work. A. Briggs declares consulting fees from Roche, Merck, Sanofi and GSK. J.K. Quint declares that their institute received funding from the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, the Medical Research Council, Health Data Research, GSK, BI, Asthma+Lung UK and AZ; and consulting fees from GlaxoSmithKline, Evidera, Chiesi, AstraZeneca and Insmed. J.D. Chalmers declares funding from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Grifols, Gilead Sciences, Insmed, Genentech and GlaxoSmithKline; consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Grifols, Gilead Sciences, Insmed, Genentech, Glaxosmithkline, Antabio, Zambon and Trudell; and leadership or fiduciary roles as Chief Editor of the European Respiratory Journal and associate editor of ERJ Open Research, Chair of the British Thoracic Society Science and Research Committee, and Trustee of the British Thoracic Society. L.V. Wain declares funding from UK Research and Innovation (MR/V027859/1), GSK/Asthma+Lung UK (Professorship (C17-1)) and National Institute of Health Research (COV0319) to complete this work; funding from Orion Pharma, GSK, Genentech, AstraZeneca, Nordic Bioscience and Sysmex (OGT); consulting fees Galapagos, Boehringer Ingelheim and GSK; support for attending meetings and/or travel Genentech; participation on Advisory Board for Galapagos; leadership or fiduciary roles as an associate editor for the European Respiratory Journal, and Medical Research Council Board member and Deputy Chair. C.E. Brightling declares that their institute received grant funding from MRC/NIHR and NIHR to complete this work; their institute received grant funding from GSK, AZ, Sanofi, Regeneron, Roche, Genentech, BI, Novartis, Chiesi, 4Dpharma and Mologic; and consulting fees from GSK, AZ, Sanofi, Regeneron, Roche, Genentech, BI, Novartis, Chiesi, 4Dpharma, Mologic and Areteia. R.A. Evans declares funding from UKRI/MRC/NIHR to complete this work; funding from Wolfson Foundation and Genentech/Roche; consulting fees from AstraZeneca/Evidera; speaking fees from Boehringer and Moderna; support for attending meetings from Chiesi; and leadership or fiduciary roles as ERS Group 01.02 Pulmonary Rehabilitation and Chronic Care Secretary, and ATS Pulmonary Rehabilitation Assembly Chair. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright ©The authors 2024.)

Background: Patients with cancer are at greater risk of dying from COVID-19 than many other patient groups. However, how this risk evolved during the pandemic remains unclear. We aimed to determine, on the basis of the UK national pandemic protocol, how factors influencing hospital mortality from COVID-19 could differentially affect patients undergoing cancer treatment. We also examined changes in hospital mortality and escalation of care in patients on cancer treatment during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK., Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients aged older than 19 years and admitted to 306 health-care facilities in the UK with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, who were enrolled in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol (CCP) across the UK from April 23, 2020, to Feb 28, 2022; this analysis included all patients in the complete dataset when the study closed. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality, comparing patients on cancer treatment and those without cancer. The study was approved by the South Central-Oxford C Research Ethics Committee in England (Ref: 13/SC/0149) and the Scotland A Research Ethics Committee (Ref 20/SS/0028), and is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN66726260)., Findings: 177 871 eligible adult patients either with no history of cancer (n=171 303) or on cancer treatment (n=6568) were enrolled; 93 205 (52·4%) were male, 84 418 (47·5%) were female, and in 248 (13·9%) sex or gender details were not specified or data were missing. Patients were followed up for a median of 13 (IQR 6-21) days. Of the 6568 patients receiving cancer treatment, 2080 (31·7%) died at 30 days, compared with 30 901 (18·0%) of 171 303 patients without cancer. Patients aged younger than 50 years on cancer treatment had the highest age-adjusted relative risk (hazard ratio [HR] 5·2 [95% CI 4·0-6·6], p<0·0001; vs 50-69 years 2·4 [2·2-2·6], p<0·0001; 70-79 years 1·8 [1·6-2·0], p<0·0001; and >80 years 1·5 [1·3-1·6], p<0·0001) but a lower absolute risk (51 [6·7%] of 763 patients <50 years died compared with 459 [30·2%] of 1522 patients aged >80 years). In-hospital mortality decreased for all patients during the pandemic but was higher for patients on cancer treatment than for those without cancer throughout the study period., Interpretation: People with cancer have a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 than those without cancer. Patients younger than 50 years with cancer treatment have the highest relative risk of death. Continued action is needed to mitigate the poor outcomes in patients with cancer, such as through optimising vaccination, long-acting passive immunisation, and early access to therapeutics. These findings underscore the importance of the ISARIC-WHO pandemic preparedness initiative., Funding: National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests LT has received consulting fees from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency; and from AstraZeneca and Synairgen, paid to the University of Liverpool; speakers' fees from Eisai paid to the University of Liverpool, and support for conference attendance from AstraZeneca. CP reports research grants and support from Pfizer, Daiichi Sankyo, Seagen, and North West Cancer; consulting fees from Pfizer, Roche, Daiichi Sankyo, Novartis, Exact Sciences, Gilead, Seagen, and Eli Lilly; payment for lectures from Pfizer, Novartis, and Eisai; and support for meeting attendance from Roche and Novartis. PJMO declares fees from GSK, Moderna, Seqirus, Sanofi, AstraZeneca, Icosavax, Pfizer, Medscape, and Janessen for consulting, speaking or chairing a symposium, paid to Imperial College London. MGS is chair of the infectious disease advisory board for Integrum Scientific, director of MedEx solutions, a shareholder of Integrum Scientific and MedEx solutions, participated in the data safety monitoring board for Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine trials, and was donated an investigational medicinal product by Chiesi Farmaceutici. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Pleiotropic variants (i.e., genetic polymorphisms influencing more than one phenotype) are often associated with cancer risk. A scan of pleiotropic variants was successfully conducted ten years ago in relation to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma susceptibility. However, in the last decade, genetic association studies performed on several human traits have greatly increased the number of known pleiotropic variants. Based on the hypothesis that variants already associated with a least one trait have a higher probability of association with other traits, 61,052 variants reported to be associated by at least one genome wide association study (GWAS) with at least one human trait were tested in the present study consisting of two phases (discovery and validation), comprising a total of 16,055 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases and 212,149 controls. The meta-analysis of the two phases showed two loci (10q21.1-rs4948550 (P=6.52×10-5) and 7q36.3-rs288762 (P=3.03×10-5) potentially associated with PDAC risk. 10q21.1-rs4948550 shows a high degree of pleiotropy and it is also associated with colorectal cancer risk while 7q36.3-rs288762 is situated 28,558 base pairs upstream of the Sonic Hedgehog (SHH) gene, which is involved in the cell differentiation process and PDAC etiopathogenesis. In conclusion, none of the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed a formally statistically significant association after correction for multiple testing. However, given their pleiotropic nature and association with various human traits including colorectal cancer, the two SNPs showing the best associations with PDAC risk merit further investigation through fine mapping and ad hoc functional studies., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the UK Environmental Mutagen Society. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

One in ten severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections result in prolonged symptoms termed long coronavirus disease (COVID), yet disease phenotypes and mechanisms are poorly understood 1 . Here we profiled 368 plasma proteins in 657 participants ≥3 months following hospitalization. Of these, 426 had at least one long COVID symptom and 233 had fully recovered. Elevated markers of myeloid inflammation and complement activation were associated with long COVID. IL-1R2, MATN2 and COLEC12 were associated with cardiorespiratory symptoms, fatigue and anxiety/depression; MATN2, CSF3 and C1QA were elevated in gastrointestinal symptoms and C1QA was elevated in cognitive impairment. Additional markers of alterations in nerve tissue repair (SPON-1 and NFASC) were elevated in those with cognitive impairment and SCG3, suggestive of brain-gut axis disturbance, was elevated in gastrointestinal symptoms. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) was persistently elevated in some individuals with long COVID, but virus was not detected in sputum. Analysis of inflammatory markers in nasal fluids showed no association with symptoms. Our study aimed to understand inflammatory processes that underlie long COVID and was not designed for biomarker discovery. Our findings suggest that specific inflammatory pathways related to tissue damage are implicated in subtypes of long COVID, which might be targeted in future therapeutic trials., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objective: Endocrine systems are disrupted in acute illness, and symptoms reported following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are similar to those found with clinical hormone deficiencies. We hypothesised that people with severe acute COVID-19 and with post-COVID symptoms have glucocorticoid and sex hormone deficiencies., Design/patients: Samples were obtained for analysis from two UK multicentre cohorts during hospitalisation with COVID-19 (International Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Consortium/World Health Organisation [WHO] Clinical Characterization Protocol for Severe Emerging Infections in the UK study), and at follow-up 5 months after hospitalisation (Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study)., Measurements: Plasma steroids were quantified by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Steroid concentrations were compared against disease severity (WHO ordinal scale) and validated symptom scores. Data are presented as geometric mean (SD)., Results: In the acute cohort (n = 239, 66.5% male), plasma cortisol concentration increased with disease severity (cortisol 753.3 [1.6] vs. 429.2 [1.7] nmol/L in fatal vs. least severe, p < .001). In males, testosterone concentrations decreased with severity (testosterone 1.2 [2.2] vs. 6.9 [1.9] nmol/L in fatal vs. least severe, p < .001). In the follow-up cohort (n = 198, 62.1% male, 68.9% ongoing symptoms, 165 [121-192] days postdischarge), plasma cortisol concentrations (275.6 [1.5] nmol/L) did not differ with in-hospital severity, perception of recovery, or patient-reported symptoms. Male testosterone concentrations (12.6 [1.5] nmol/L) were not related to in-hospital severity, perception of recovery or symptom scores., Conclusions: Circulating glucocorticoids in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 reflect acute illness, with a marked rise in cortisol and fall in male testosterone. These findings are not observed 5 months from discharge. The lack of association between hormone concentrations and common post-COVID symptoms suggests steroid insufficiency does not play a causal role in this condition., (© 2024 The Authors. Clinical Endocrinology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The relationship between gastrointestinal tract infection, the host immune response, and the clinical outcome of disease is not well understood in COVID-19. We sought to understand the effect of intestinal immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 on patient outcomes including the magnitude of systemic antibody induction. Combining two prospective cohort studies, International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium Comprehensive Clinical Characterisations Collaboration (ISARIC4C) and Integrated Network for Surveillance, Trials and Investigations into COVID-19 Transmission (INSTINCT), we acquired samples from 88 COVID-19 cases representing the full spectrum of disease severity and analysed viral RNA and host gut cytokine responses in the context of clinical and virological outcome measures. There was no correlation between the upper respiratory tract and faecal viral loads. Using hierarchical clustering, we identified a group of fecal cytokines including Interleukin-17A, Granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor, Tumor necrosis factorα, Interleukin-23, and S100A8, that were transiently elevated in mild cases and also correlated with the magnitude of systemic anti-Spike-receptor-binding domain antibody induction. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that expression of these gut cytokines at study enrolment in hospitalised COVID-19 cases was associated negatively with overall clinical severity implicating a protective role in COVID-19. This suggests that a productive intestinal immune response may be beneficial in the response to a respiratory pathogen and a biomarker of a successful barrier response., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

A proportion of patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 experience a range of neuropsychiatric symptoms months after infection, including cognitive deficits, depression and anxiety. The mechanisms underpinning such symptoms remain elusive. Recent research has demonstrated that nervous system injury can occur during COVID-19. Whether ongoing neural injury in the months after COVID-19 accounts for the ongoing or emergent neuropsychiatric symptoms is unclear. Within a large prospective cohort study of adult survivors who were hospitalized for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, we analysed plasma markers of nervous system injury and astrocytic activation, measured 6 months post-infection: neurofilament light, glial fibrillary acidic protein and total tau protein. We assessed whether these markers were associated with the severity of the acute COVID-19 illness and with post-acute neuropsychiatric symptoms (as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire for depression, the General Anxiety Disorder assessment for anxiety, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment for objective cognitive deficit and the cognitive items of the Patient Symptom Questionnaire for subjective cognitive deficit) at 6 months and 1 year post-hospital discharge from COVID-19. No robust associations were found between markers of nervous system injury and severity of acute COVID-19 (except for an association of small effect size between duration of admission and neurofilament light) nor with post-acute neuropsychiatric symptoms. These results suggest that ongoing neuropsychiatric symptoms are not due to ongoing neural injury., Competing Interests: H.Z. has served at scientific advisory boards and/or as a consultant for Abbvie, Acumen, Alector, Alzinova, ALZPath, Annexon, Apellis, Artery Therapeutics, AZTherapies, CogRx, Denali, Eisai, Nervgen, Novo Nordisk, Passage Bio, Pinteon Therapeutics, Prothena, Red Abbey Labs, reMYND, Roche, Samumed, Siemens Healthineers, Triplet Therapeutics and Wave, has given lectures in symposia sponsored by Cellectricon, Fujirebio, Alzecure, Biogen and Roche, and is a co-founder of Brain Biomarker Solutions in Gothenburg AB (BBS), which is a part of the GU Ventures Incubator Program (outside submitted work). I.K. declares grant fundind and speaker fees from Novo Nordisk., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain.)

Background: Genetic predisposition is crucial in the pathogenesis of early-onset chronic pancreatitis (CP). So far, several genetic alterations have been identified as risk factors, predominantly in genes encoding digestive enzymes. However, many early-onset CP cases have no identified underlying cause. Chymotrypsins are a family of serine proteases that can cleave trypsinogen and lead to its degradation. Because genetic alterations in the chymotrypsins CTRC, CTRB1, and CTRB2 are associated with CP, we genetically and functionally investigated chymotrypsin-like protease (CTRL) as a potential risk factor., Methods: We screened 1005 non-alcoholic CP patients and 1594 controls for CTRL variants by exome sequencing. We performed Western blots and activity assays to analyse secretion and proteolytic activity. We measured BiP mRNA expression to investigate the potential impact of identified alterations on endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress., Results: We identified 13 heterozygous non-synonymous CTRL variants: five exclusively in patients and three only in controls. Functionality was unchanged in 6/13 variants. Four alterations showed normal secretion but reduced (p.G20S, p.G56S, p.G61S) or abolished (p.S208F) activity. Another three variants (p.C201Y, p.G215R and p.C220G) were not secreted and already showed reduced or no activity intracellularly. However, intracellular retention did not lead to ER stress., Conclusion: We identified several CTRL variants, some showing potent effects on protease function and secretion. We observed these effects in variants found in patients and controls, and CTRL loss-of-function variants were not significantly more common in patients than controls. Therefore, CTRL is unlikely to play a relevant role in the development of CP., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Early-onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) represents 5-10% of all pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases, and the etiology of this form is poorly understood. It is not clear if established PDAC risk factors have the same relevance for younger patients. This study aims to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors specific to EOPC., Methods: A genome-wide association study was performed, analysing 912 EOPC cases and 10 222 controls, divided into discovery and replication phases. Furthermore, the associations between a polygenic risk score (PRS), smoking, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes and PDAC risk were also assessed., Results: Six novel SNPs were associated with EOPC risk in the discovery phase, but not in the replication phase. The PRS, smoking, and diabetes affected EOPC risk. The OR comparing current smokers to never-smokers was 2.92 (95% CI 1.69-5.04, P = 1.44 × 10 -4 ). For diabetes, the corresponding OR was 14.95 (95% CI 3.41-65.50, P = 3.58 × 10 -4 )., Conclusion: In conclusion, we did not identify novel genetic variants associated specifically with EOPC, and we found that established PDAC risk variants do not have a strong age-dependent effect. Furthermore, we add to the evidence pointing to the role of smoking and diabetes in EOPC., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest M.F.B. has received research funding from Celgene and Lead Pharma and acted as a consultant to Servier. H.W.M.L. reports research funding and/or medication supply from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Bayer Schering Pharma, Celgene, Janssen-Cilag, Lilly, Nordic Pharma, Philips Healthcare, Roche, Merck Sharp and Dohme, Servier, Incyte; and consultant/advisory board member for Lilly, Nordic Pharma, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Dragonfly, Merck Sharp and Dohme, Servier, all outside the submitted work. The other authors do not have any conflict of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2023 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Pancreatic cancer has an incidence that almost matches its mortality. Only a small number of risk factors and 33 susceptibility loci have been identified. so Moreover, the relative rarity of pancreatic cancer poses significant hurdles for research aimed at increasing our knowledge of the genetic mechanisms contributing to the disease. Additionally, the inability to adequately power research questions prevents small monocentric studies from being successful. Several consortia have been established to pursue a better understanding of the genetic architecture of pancreatic cancers. The Pancreatic disease research (PANDoRA) consortium is the largest in Europe. PANDoRA is spread across 12 European countries, Brazil and Japan, bringing together 29 basic and clinical research groups. In the last ten years, PANDoRA has contributed to the discovery of 25 susceptibility loci, a feat that will be instrumental in stratifying the population by risk and optimizing preventive strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest MFB has received research funding from Celgene, Frame Therapeutics, and Lead Pharma, and has acted as a consultant to Servier., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is chemorefractory and limited genomic analyses have been undertaken in Western idiopathic disease. We undertook comprehensive genomic analyses of a U.K. idiopathic pCCA cohort to characterize its mutational profile and identify new targets. Whole exome and targeted DNA sequencing was performed on forty-two resected pCCA tumors and normal bile ducts, with Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) using one-tailed testing to generate false discovery rates (FDR). 60% of patients harbored one cancer-associated mutation, with two mutations in 20%. High frequency somatic mutations in genes not typically associated with cholangiocarcinoma included mTOR, ABL1 and NOTCH1. We identified non-synonymous mutation (p.Glu38del) in MAP3K9 in ten tumors, associated with increased peri-vascular invasion (Fisher's exact, p < 0.018). Mutation-enriched pathways were primarily immunological, including innate Dectin-2 (FDR 0.001) and adaptive T-cell receptor pathways including PD-1 (FDR 0.007), CD4 phosphorylation (FDR 0.009) and ZAP70 translocation (FDR 0.009), with overlapping HLA genes. We observed cancer-associated mutations in over half of our patients. Many of these mutations are not typically associated with cholangiocarcinoma yet may increase eligibility for contemporary targeted trials. We also identified a targetable MAP3K9 mutation, in addition to oncogenic and immunological pathways hitherto not described in any cholangiocarcinoma subtype., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The development of K-Ras independence may explain the failure of targeted therapy for pancreatic cancer (PC). In this paper, active N as well as K-Ras was shown in all human cell lines tested. In a cell line dependent on mutant K-Ras, it was shown that depleting K-Ras reduced total Ras activity, while cell lines described as independent had no significant decline in total Ras activity. The knockdown of N-Ras showed it had an important role in controlling the relative level of oxidative metabolism, but only K-Ras depletion caused a decrease in G2 cyclins. Proteasome inhibition reversed this, and other targets of APC/c were also decreased by K-Ras depletion. K-Ras depletion did not cause an increase in ubiquitinated G2 cyclins but instead caused exit from the G2 phase to slow relative to completion of the S-phase, suggesting that the mutant K-Ras may inhibit APC/c prior to anaphase and stabilise G2 cyclins independently of this. We propose that, during tumorigenesis, cancer cells expressing wild-type N-Ras protein are selected because the protein protects cancer cells from the deleterious effects of the cell cycle-independent induction of cyclins by mutant K-Ras. Mutation independence results when N-Ras activity becomes adequate to drive cell division, even in cells where K-Ras is inhibited.

The naphthalene diimide compound QN-302, designed to bind to G-quadruplex DNA sequences within the promoter regions of cancer-related genes, has high anti-proliferative activity in pancreatic cancer cell lines and anti-tumor activity in several experimental models for the disease. We show here that QN-302 also causes downregulation of the expression of the S100P gene and the S100P protein in cells and in vivo. This protein is well established as being involved in key proliferation and motility pathways in several human cancers and has been identified as a potential biomarker in pancreatic cancer. The S100P gene contains 60 putative quadruplex-forming sequences, one of which is in the promoter region, 48 nucleotides upstream from the transcription start site. We report biophysical and molecular modeling studies showing that this sequence forms a highly stable G-quadruplex in vitro, which is further stabilized by QN-302. We also report transcriptome analyses showing that S100P expression is highly upregulated in tissues from human pancreatic cancer tumors, compared to normal pancreas material. The extent of upregulation is dependent on the degree of differentiation of tumor cells, with the most poorly differentiated, from more advanced disease, having the highest level of S100P expression. The experimental drug QN-302 is currently in pre-IND development (as of Q1 2023), and its ability to downregulate S100P protein expression supports a role for this protein as a marker of therapeutic response in pancreatic cancer. These results are also consistent with the hypothesis that the S100P promoter G-quadruplex is a potential therapeutic target in pancreatic cancer at the transcriptional level for QN-302.

Objective: GATA6 is a key regulator of the classical phenotype in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Low GATA6 expression associates with poor patient outcome. GATA4 is the second most expressed GATA factor in the pancreas. We assessed whether, and how, GATA4 contributes to PDAC phenotype and analysed the association of expression with outcome and response to chemotherapy., Design: We analysed PDAC transcriptomic data, stratifying cases according to GATA4 and GATA6 expression and identified differentially expressed genes and pathways. The genome-wide distribution of GATA4 was assessed, as well as the effects of GATA4 knockdown. A multicentre tissue microarray study to assess GATA4 and GATA6 expression in samples (n=745) from patients with resectable was performed. GATA4 and GATA6 levels were dichotomised into high/low categorical variables; association with outcome was assessed using univariable and multivariable Cox regression models., Results: GATA4 messenger RNA is enriched in classical, compared with basal-like tumours. We classified samples in 4 groups as high/low for GATA4 and GATA6 . Reduced expression of GATA4 had a minor transcriptional impact but low expression of GATA4 enhanced the effects of GATA6 low expression. GATA4 and GATA6 display a partially overlapping genome-wide distribution, mainly at promoters. Reduced expression of both proteins in tumours was associated with the worst patient survival. GATA4 and GATA6 expression significantly decreased in metastases and negatively correlated with basal markers., Conclusions: GATA4 and GATA6 cooperate to maintain the classical phenotype. Our findings provide compelling rationale to assess their expression as biomarkers of poor prognosis and therapeutic response., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The antiviral drug molnupiravir was licensed for treating at-risk patients with COVID-19 on the basis of data from unvaccinated adults. We aimed to evaluate the safety and virological efficacy of molnupiravir in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with COVID-19., Methods: This randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2 trial (AGILE CST-2) was done at five National Institute for Health and Care Research sites in the UK. Eligible participants were adult (aged ≥18 years) outpatients with PCR-confirmed, mild-to-moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection who were within 5 days of symptom onset. Using permuted blocks (block size 2 or 4) and stratifying by site, participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either molnupiravir (orally; 800 mg twice daily for 5 days) plus standard of care or matching placebo plus standard of care. The primary outcome was the time from randomisation to SARS-CoV-2 PCR negativity on nasopharyngeal swabs and was analysed by use of a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model for estimating the probability of a superior virological response (hazard ratio [HR]>1) for molnupiravir versus placebo. Our primary model used a two-point prior based on equal prior probabilities (50%) that the HR was 1·0 or 1·5. We defined a priori that if the probability of a HR of more than 1 was more than 80% molnupiravir would be recommended for further testing. The primary outcome was analysed in the intention-to-treat population and safety was analysed in the safety population, comprising participants who had received at least one dose of allocated treatment. This trial is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04746183, and the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN27106947, and is ongoing., Findings: Between Nov 18, 2020, and March 16, 2022, 1723 patients were assessed for eligibility, of whom 180 were randomly assigned to receive either molnupiravir (n=90) or placebo (n=90) and were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. 103 (57%) of 180 participants were female and 77 (43%) were male and 90 (50%) participants had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 infections with the delta (B.1.617.2; 72 [40%] of 180), alpha (B.1.1.7; 37 [21%]), omicron (B.1.1.529; 38 [21%]), and EU1 (B.1.177; 28 [16%]) variants were represented. All 180 participants received at least one dose of treatment and four participants discontinued the study (one in the molnupiravir group and three in the placebo group). Participants in the molnupiravir group had a faster median time from randomisation to negative PCR (8 days [95% CI 8-9]) than participants in the placebo group (11 days [10-11]; HR 1·30, 95% credible interval 0·92-1·71; log-rank p=0·074). The probability of molnupiravir being superior to placebo (HR>1) was 75·4%, which was less than our threshold of 80%. 73 (81%) of 90 participants in the molnupiravir group and 68 (76%) of 90 participants in the placebo group had at least one adverse event by day 29. One participant in the molnupiravir group and three participants in the placebo group had an adverse event of a Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade 3 or higher severity. No participants died (due to any cause) during the trial., Interpretation: We found molnupiravir to be well tolerated and, although our predefined threshold was not reached, we observed some evidence that molnupiravir has antiviral activity in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with a broad range of SARS-CoV-2 variants, although this evidence is not conclusive., Funding: Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, the Medical Research Council, and the Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests SHK has received research funding from ViiV Healthcare and Merck for the Liverpool HIV Drug Interactions programme and for unrelated clinical studies. GG has received funding from Janssen-Cilag, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Astex, Roche, Heartflow, Celldex, BMS, BionTech, Cancer Research UK, the NIHR, the British Lung Foundation, Unitaid, and GSK for unrelated academic clinical trials and programme funding. WG has received funding from the Wellcome Trust. WH is a cofounder and owner of, and adviser for, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. WP is employed by Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. JP has received honoraria for lectures from Gilead and London International Patient Services UK. JAH has received research funding from the US Food and Drug Administration and payment for expert testimony from DAC Beachcroft and Clyde and Co. TE has received unrelated research funding from the Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, and Bloomsbury SET and travel grants from the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Earlier detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is key to improving patient outcomes, as it is mostly detected at advanced stages which are associated with poor survival. Developing non-invasive blood tests for early detection would be an important breakthrough., Methods: The primary objective of the work presented here is to use a dataset that is prospectively collected, to quantify a set of cancer-associated proteins and construct multi-marker models with the capacity to predict PDAC years before diagnosis. The data used is part of a nested case-control study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and is comprised of 218 samples, collected from a total of 143 post-menopausal women who were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 70 months after sample collection, and 249 matched non-cancer controls. We develop a stacked ensemble modelling technique to achieve robustness in predictions and, therefore, improve performance in newly collected datasets., Results: Here we show that with ensemble learning we can predict PDAC status with an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI 0.75-1.0), sensitivity of 92% (95% CI 0.54-1.0) at 90% specificity, up to 1 year prior to diagnosis, and at an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.74-0.93) up to 2 years prior to diagnosis (sensitivity of 61%, 95% CI 0.17-0.83, at 90% specificity)., Conclusions: The ensemble modelling strategy explored here outperforms considerably biomarker combinations cited in the literature. Further developments in the selection of classifiers balancing performance and heterogeneity should further enhance the predictive capacity of the method., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Molnupiravir is an antiviral, currently approved by the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) for treating at-risk COVID-19 patients, that induces lethal error catastrophe in SARS-CoV-2. How this drug-induced mechanism of action might impact the emergence of resistance mutations is unclear. To investigate this, we used samples from the AGILE Candidate Specific Trial (CST)-2 (clinical trial number NCT04746183). The primary outcomes of AGILE CST-2 were to measure the drug safety and antiviral efficacy of molnupiravir in humans (180 participants randomised 1:1 with placebo). Here, we describe the pre-specified exploratory virological endpoint of CST-2, which was to determine the possible genomic changes in SARS-CoV-2 induced by molnupiravir treatment. We use high-throughput amplicon sequencing and minor variant analysis to characterise viral genomics in each participant whose longitudinal samples (days 1, 3 and 5 post-randomisation) pass the viral genomic quality criteria (n = 59 for molnupiravir and n = 65 for placebo). Over the course of treatment, no specific mutations were associated with molnupiravir treatment. We find that molnupiravir significantly increased the transition:transversion mutation ratio in SARS-CoV-2, consistent with the model of lethal error catastrophe. This study highlights the utility of examining intra-host virus populations to strengthen the prediction, and surveillance, of potential treatment-emergent adaptations., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Screening for this disease has potential to improve survival. It is not feasible, with current screening modalities, to screen the asymptomatic adult population. However, screening of individuals in high-risk groups is recommended. Our study aims to provide resources and data that will inform strategies to screen individuals with new-onset diabetes (NOD) for pancreatic cancer., Methods and Analysis: The United Kingdom Early Detection Initiative (UK-EDI) for pancreatic cancer is a national, prospective, observational cohort study that aims to recruit 2500 individuals with NOD (<6 months postdiagnosis) aged 50 years and over, with follow-up every 6 months, over a 3-year period. For study eligibility, diagnosis of diabetes is considered to be clinical measurement of haemoglobin A1c ≥48 mmol/mol. Detailed clinical information and biospecimens will be collected at baseline and follow-up to support the development of molecular, epidemiological and demographic biomarkers for earlier detection of pancreatic cancer in the high-risk NOD group. Socioeconomic impacts and cost-effectiveness of earlier detection of pancreatic cancer in individuals with NOD will be evaluated. The UK-EDI NOD cohort will provide a bioresource for future early detection research to be conducted., Ethics and Dissemination: The UK-EDI study has been reviewed and approved by the London-West London and GTAC Research Ethics Committee (Ref 20/LO/0058). Study results will be disseminated through presentations at national and international symposia and publication in peer-reviewed, Open Access journals., Competing Interests: Competing interests: EC, LO, WG, CH and PG are named as inventors on GB patent GBGB1806002.0; PCT/GB2019/050998, submitted by the University of Liverpool, that covers the measurement of adiponectin and IL-1Ra as a biomarker for early detection of pancreatic cancer., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)