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This publication brings together the major recommendations for the initial memorandum for the Spatial Implementation Plan (SIP) for the Oudland Polder (phase 1) arising from the European COASTAL Horizon 2020 project. They are based on a far-seeing exploration of the future, up to 2100, in which a range of societal developments were explored. This means that we reviewed, for example, how the further urbanisation and population growth in this polder region could evolve. We also checked which agricultural practices we could expect in the Oudland Polder in the future. This implies that we had to take into account a great many uncertainties when developing these recommendations. One of the ways to do this is to work with scenarios, whether or not supported by modelling work. This means each of the recommendations on the following pages is substantiated by the insights arising from this scenario work. Furthermore, we involved a diverse group of stakeholders living and/or working in the region in this exploration of the future. Through their expertise in relation to the Oudland Polder, they provided a valuable contribution to the debate on the future of this polder region. What they brought to the table helped to contextualise and interpret results. Thirdly, where possible, we also made the link between European and Flemish policy lines that are aimed at the longer term and present some clear objectives for the coming decades. This means the recommendations presented in this publication are a synthesis of research combining both qualitative and quantitative work, and in which modelling work builds upon a direct dialogue with stakeholders, but has also fed into it., We would therefore like to expressly thank all the stakeholders and experts who have made us familiar with the Oudland Polder in recent years, in particular the staff at the VLM. We also extend our sincere thanks to everyone who took part in one of the workshops, gave feedback on publications or took the time to work with us on the various scenarios referred to in this publication.

Description, Soil drought can mitigate deadly heat stress thanks to a reduction of air humidity., Global warming increases the number and severity of deadly heatwaves. Recent heatwaves often coincided with soil droughts that intensify air temperature but lower air humidity. Since lowering air humidity may reduce human heat stress, the net impact of soil desiccation on the morbidity and mortality of heatwaves remains unclear. Combining weather balloon and satellite observations, atmospheric modelling, and meta-analyses of heatwave mortality, we find that soil droughts—despite their warming effect—lead to a mild reduction in heatwave lethality. More specifically, morning dry soils attenuate afternoon heat stress anomaly by ~5%. This occurs because of reduced surface evaporation and increased entrainment of dry air aloft. The benefit appears more pronounced during specific events, such as the Chicago 1995 and Northern U.S. 2006 and 2012 heatwaves. Our findings suggest that irrigated agriculture may intensify lethal heat stress, and question recently proposed heatwave mitigation measures involving surface moistening to increase evaporative cooling.

Extreme Warm Year (EWY), based on the methodology of Nik (2016), is extracted for the location of Leuven (city centre, 50°52'48" N 4°42'0" E) from the EC-Earth driven convection-permitting climate model COSMO-CLM for the Belgian domain extended with land-surface scheme TERRA_URB(v2.0) making use of the SURY (Semi-empirical URban canopY) parameterization ( Wouters et al. 2016). The integrations are identical to the ones which are described in Vanden Broucke et al. (2019). The climate model has a spatial resolution of 2.8 km and an hourly temporal resolution and is available for the recent past (1976-2004) and future (2070-2098) as 30-year datasets. For this dataset, the EWY is extracted for the future period. A bias correction is applied for the following variables: temperature (as described in Ramon et al. 2020), solar radiation and relative humidity as described in Ramon et al. (202X)., This work was supported by Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) [1S97418N] and is part of the Ph.D. research 'Towards future-proof buildings in Flanders: Climate and Life Cycle modelling for resilient office buildings'. The climate model data used is the result of the CORDEX.be project funded by the Belgian federal government (Belgian Science Policy Office project BR/143/A2/CORDEX.be) and can be requested via nicole.vanlipzig@kuleuven.be. Computational resources for these integrations were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Centre), funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government - department EWI. The hourly observational data for the bias correction were provided by RMI (Belgian Royal Meteorological Institute)., {"references":["Ramon, D., Allacker, K., De Troyer, F., Wouters, H., & van Lipzig, N. P. (2020). Future heating and cooling degree days for Belgium under a high-end climate change scenario. Energy and Buildings, 216, 109935.","Nik, V. M. (2016). Making energy simulation easier for future climate–Synthesizing typical and extreme weather data sets out of regional climate models (RCMs). Applied Energy, 177, 204-226.","H. Wouters, M. Demuzere, U. Blahak, K. Fortuniak, B. Maiheu, J. Camps, D. Tielemans, N.P.M. Van Lipzig, The efficient urban canopy dependency parametrization (SURY) v1.0 for atmospheric modelling: Description and application with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer, Geosci. Model Dev. 9 (2016) 3027–3054. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016.","S. Vanden Broucke, H. Wouters, M. Demuzere, N.P.M. van Lipzig, The influence of convection-permitting regional climate modeling on future projections of extreme precipitation: dependency on topography and timescale, Clim. Dyn. (2019). doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4454-2.","Ramon, D., Allacker K. (202X) Integrated assessment method for climate resilient buildings: framework and application on a Flemish office building. In preparation."]}

Extreme Warm Year (EWY), based on the methodology of Nik (2016), is extracted for the location of Leuven (city centre, 50°52'48" N 4°42'0" E) from the EC-Earth driven convection-permitting climate model COSMO-CLM for the Belgian domain extended with land-surface scheme TERRA_URB(v2.0) making use of the SURY (Semi-empirical URban canopY) parameterization ( Wouters et al. 2016). The integrations are identical to the ones which are described in Vanden Broucke et al. (2019). The climate model has a spatial resolution of 2.8 km and an hourly temporal resolution and is available for the recent past (1976-2004) and future (2070-2098) as 30-year datasets. For this dataset, the EWY is extracted for the current period. A bias correction is applied for the following variables: temperature (as described in Ramon et al. 2020), solar radiation and relative humidity as described in Ramon et al. (202X)., This work was supported by Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) [1S97418N] and is part of the Ph.D. research 'Towards future-proof buildings in Flanders: Climate and Life Cycle modelling for resilient office buildings'. The climate model data used is the result of the CORDEX.be project funded by the Belgian federal government (Belgian Science Policy Office project BR/143/A2/CORDEX.be) and can be requested via nicole.vanlipzig@kuleuven.be. Computational resources for these integrations were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Centre), funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government - department EWI. The hourly observational data for the bias correction were provided by RMI (Belgian Royal Meteorological Institute)., {"references":["Ramon, D., Allacker, K., De Troyer, F., Wouters, H., & van Lipzig, N. P. (2020). Future heating and cooling degree days for Belgium under a high-end climate change scenario. Energy and Buildings, 216, 109935.","Nik, V. M. (2016). Making energy simulation easier for future climate–Synthesizing typical and extreme weather data sets out of regional climate models (RCMs). Applied Energy, 177, 204-226.","H. Wouters, M. Demuzere, U. Blahak, K. Fortuniak, B. Maiheu, J. Camps, D. Tielemans, N.P.M. Van Lipzig, The efficient urban canopy dependency parametrization (SURY) v1.0 for atmospheric modelling: Description and application with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer, Geosci. Model Dev. 9 (2016) 3027–3054. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016.","S. Vanden Broucke, H. Wouters, M. Demuzere, N.P.M. van Lipzig, The influence of convection-permitting regional climate modeling on future projections of extreme precipitation: dependency on topography and timescale, Clim. Dyn. (2019). doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4454-2.","Ramon, D., Allacker K. (202X) Integrated assessment method for climate resilient buildings: framework and application on a Flemish office building. In preparation."]}

0, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The energy performance of a building is to an important extent influenced by the outdoor climate. For this purpose, the outdoor climate data should be accurately represented in building energy models (BEM). Currently, representative years based on observations (e.g. an International Weather for Energy Calculations, IWEC) are commonly used in BEMs. However, one may require multi-decadal periods of weather data better reflecting the range of weather conditions including extremes to which buildings are exposed to. Convection-permitting models (CPM) have a much better spatial coverage and can provide multi-decadal information including climate change scenarios. For Belgium, multi-decadal CPM data have been developed for the current and future climate perspective. This paper is part of a broader research on the integration of CPM data in BEMs and focuses on the added value of the long-term climate model data and the comparison of the CPM data with the IWEC data. Both data formats are compared and applied in a BEM of an office building. In general, both weather files lead towards similar results but the IWEC file tends to overestimate the cooling load. no ISBN/ISSN ispartof: pages:445-450 ispartof: Proceedings of BSO 2018: 4th Building Simulation and Optimization Conference pages:445-450 ispartof: 4th Building Simulation and Optimization Conference location:Cambridge, UK date:11 Sep - 12 Sep 2018 status: Published online