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There is a large literature on earnings and income volatility in labor economics, household finance, and macroeconomics. One strand of that literature has studied whether individual earnings volatility has risen or fallen in the U.S. over the last several decades. There are strong disagreements in the empirical literature on this important question, with some studies showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some showing no trends. Some studies have suggested that the differences are the result of using flawed survey data instead of more accurate administrative data. This paper summarizes the results of a project attempting to reconcile these findings with four different data sets and six different data series--three survey and three administrative data series, including two which match survey respondent data to their administrative data. Using common specifications, measures of volatility, and other treatments of the data, four of the six data series show a lack of any significant long-term trend in male earnings volatility over the last 20-to-30+ years when differences across the data sets are properly accounted for. A fifth data series (the PSID) shows a positive net trend but small in magnitude. A sixth, administrative, data set, available only since 1998, shows no net trend 1998-2011 and only a small decline thereafter. Many of the remaining differences across data series can be explained by differences in their cross-sectional distribution of earnings, particularly differences in the size of the lower tail. We conclude that the data sets we have analyzed, which include many of the most important available, show little evidence of any significant trend in male earnings volatility since the mid-1980s., Comment: Version submitted to JBES in January of 2022

Food insecurity, defined as a household-level economic and social condition of limited or uncertain access to adequate food, is a substantial threat to public health in the United States. In 2017, nearly 12% of households reported being food insecure, affecting over 40 million persons. Numerous studies have documented that food insecurity is associated with substantive negative health outcomes among children and families, and leads to excessive health care expenditures. In this paper we compare the levels, trends, and determinants of food insecurity in the University of Michigan's Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to those from the official source of food security statistics in the U.S.--the Food Security Supplement of the Current Population Survey--from 1999-2017. The PSID, which was begun in 1968, is the leading longitudinal household survey on work, welfare, family structure, consumption, health, and wealth. The survey added measures of food security in the 1999-2003 waves, and again in the 2015-2017 waves. This offers the first opportunity to answer key pressing scientific and policy issues such as the persistence of food insecurity within and across generations, and how changes in food security affect and are affected by the level and change in consumption, wealth, and broader measures of health. This paper aims to describe how well levels and trends in food insecurity in the PSID align with the CPS, and the sources of why they might differ. In addition, we examine the robustness of key model predictors of food insecurity--income, race, education, disability status, marital status--across the surveys. We find that, although the estimated food insecurity rates in the PSID are lower than those in the CPS, the trends over time in the two datasets are similar. Food insecurity rates in the PSID and CPS converge from the 1998-2002 period to the 2014-16 period when food insecurity rates closely match those in the CPS. Our findings, taken as a whole, lend credence to the use of the PSID for food insecurity research.

We estimate the effect of welfare reform on the intergenerational transmission of welfare participation and related economic outcomes using a long panel of mother-daughter pairs over the survey period 1968-2013 in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Because states implemented welfare reform at different times starting in 1992, the cross-state variation over time permits us to quasi-experimentally separate out the effect of mothers' welfare participation during childhood on daughters' economic outcomes in adulthood in the pre- and post-welfare reform periods. We find that a mother's welfare participation increased her daughter's odds of participation as an adult by roughly 30 percentage points, but that welfare reform attenuated this transmission by at least 50 percent, or at least 30 percent over the baseline odds of participation. While we find comparable-sized transmission patterns in daughters' adult use of the broader safety net and other outcomes such as educational attainment and income, there is no diminution of transmission after welfare reform. These results are obtained by addressing nonrandom selection into welfare and are robust to other potential threats to identification from misclassification error, life-cycle age effects, and cross-state mobility. [Originally published in September 2016.]

For parents of young children the decision to work strongly depends on the availability of affordable child care. Child care costs can take up a large portion of a family budget and may serve as an obstacle to work. In 2008 the National Association of Child Care Resource and Referral Agencies (NACCRRA) estimated that Kentucky families recently faced annual infant child care costs of $6,240 for full-time center care and $4,956 for school age children during non-school hours. These costs represent 20 to 25 percent of an average single mother's annual income and rival the tuition costs of attending a 4-year college or university. In this policy brief, the authors describe the federal and state programs that address child care and discuss recent economic research on the links between parental employment and child care. In addition, they forecast the employment effects and costs of a child care subsidy in Kentucky. (Contains 5 tables and 11 footnotes.) [This policy brief is based on the University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research (UKCPR) technical report "Child Care Subsidies and the Economic Well-Being of Recipient Families: A Survey and Implications for Kentucky."]

In this paper we offer new evidence on earnings and income volatility in the United States over the past four decades by using matched data from the March Current Population Survey. We find that between 1973 and 2008 family income volatility rose by 38 percent, primarily as a result of higher volatility of husbands earnings and non means-tested nonlabor income. Rising family income volatility is in evidence across race, education, and family structure, and after declining sharply while young, it is increasing in the latter part of the life cycle among the skilled. The Federal tax and transfer system dampens the magnitude of volatility in any given year, but not the trends. Nonparametric tests of structural change indicate that overall family income volatility peaked in 1999, with the 2000s characterized by greater short-term volatility rather than a continued secular increase. Most of the increase in family earnings volatility occurred prior to the 1990s, which coincides with the trend volatility of male earnings. The earnings volatility of women fell dramatically through the early 1980s, and the ongoing secular decline implies male and female earnings volatility is converging. A variance decomposition suggests that the trends in earning volatility are driven both by increases in the conditional variance of earnings of continuous workers as well as the variance of the conditional mean of those workers exiting the labor force. Data Appendix is included. (Contains 6 tables, 20 figures, and 5 footnotes.)

Recent research suggests that investments in education may provide the key to reducing persistent poverty in regions such as Appalachia. A look at some trends in poverty and educational attainment in Appalachia over the past two decades confirms that the two are strongly related. (A list of recommended readings is included. Contains 4 figures.)