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1. Integrals of $K$ and $E$ from Lattice Sums

Author

Wan, J. G. and Zucker, I. J.

Subjects
Mathematics - Number Theory
Abstract

We give closed form evaluations for many families of integrals, whose integrands contain algebraic functions of the complete elliptic integrals $K$ and $E$. Our methods exploit the rich structures connecting complete elliptic integrals, Jacobi theta functions, lattice sums, and Eisenstein series. Various examples are given, and along the way new (including 10-dimensional) lattice sum evaluations are produced.

Published
2014

2. Moments of elliptic integrals and critical $L$-values

Author

Rogers, M., Wan, J. G., and Zucker, I. J.

Subjects
Mathematics - Number Theory
Abstract

We compute the critical $L$-values of some weight 3, 4, or 5 modular forms, by transforming them into integrals of the complete elliptic integral $K$. In doing so, we prove closed form formulas for some moments of $K'^3$. Many of our $L$-values can be expressed in terms of Gamma functions, and this also gives new lattice sum evaluations.

Published
2013

4. Dirichlet L-series with real and complex characters and their application to solving double sums

Author

Zucker, I. J. and McPhedran, R. C.

Subjects
Mathematical Physics
Abstract

A description of the properties of \L with complex characters is given. By using these, together with the more familiar \L with real characters, it is shown how certain two dimensional lattice sums, which previously could not be put into closed form, may now be expressed in this way., Comment: 21 pages, 1 table

Published
2007
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14. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on total, sex- and age-specific all-cause mortality in 20 countries worldwide during 2020: results from the C-MOR project

Author

Demetriou, CA, Achilleos, S, Quattrocchi, A, Gabel, J, Critselis, E, Constantinou, C, Nicolaou, N, Ambrosio, G, Bennett, CM, Le Meur, N, Critchley, JA, Mortensen, LH, Rodriguez-Llanes, JM, Chong, M, Denissov, G, Klepac, P, Goldsmith, LP, Costa, AJL, Hagen, TP, Chan Sun, M, Huang, Q, Pidmurniak, N, Zucker, I, Cuthbertson, J, Burström, B, Barron, M, Eržen, I, Stracci, F, Calmon, W, Martial, C, Verstiuk, O, Kaufman, Z, Tao, W, Kereselidze, M, Chikhladze, N, Polemitis, A, and Charalambous, A

Abstract

BACKGROUND: To understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, this study investigates overall, sex- and age-specific excess all-cause mortality in 20 countries, during 2020. METHODS: Total, sex- and age-specific weekly all-cause mortality for 2015-2020 was collected from national vital statistics databases. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 observed mortality against expected mortality, estimated from historical data (2015-2019) accounting for seasonality, long- and short-term trends. Crude and age-standardized rates were analysed for total and sex-specific mortality. RESULTS: Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Israel, Italy, Northern Ireland, Peru, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, and the USA displayed substantial excess age-standardized mortality of varying duration during 2020, while Australia, Denmark, Estonia, Mauritius, Norway, and Ukraine did not. In sex-specific analyses, excess mortality was higher in males than females, except for Slovenia (higher in females) and Cyprus (similar in both sexes). Lastly, for most countries substantial excess mortality was only detectable (Austria, Cyprus, Israel, and Slovenia) or was higher (Brazil, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Italy, Northern Ireland, Sweden, Peru and the USA) in the oldest age group investigated. Peru demonstrated substantial excess mortality even in the

Published
2022

19. Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

Author

Achilleos, S, Quattrocchi, A, Gabel, J, Heraclides, A, Kolokotroni, O, Constantinou, C, Pagola Ugarte, M, Nicolaou, N, Rodriguez-Llanes, JM, Bennett, CM, Bogatyreva, E, Schernhammer, E, Zimmermann, C, Costa, AJL, Lobato, JCP, Fernandes, NM, Semedo-Aguiar, AP, Jaramillo Ramirez, GI, Martin Garzon, OD, Mortensen, LH, Critchley, JA, Goldsmith, LP, Denissov, G, Rüütel, K, Le Meur, N, Kandelaki, L, Tsiklauri, S, O'Donnell, J, Oza, A, Kaufman, Z, Zucker, I, Ambrosio, G, Stracci, F, Hagen, TP, Erzen, I, Klepac, P, Arcos González, P, Fernández Camporro, Á, Burström, B, Pidmurniak, N, Verstiuk, O, Huang, Q, Mehta, NK, Polemitis, A, Charalambous, A, and Demetriou, CA

Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Published
2022

20. Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January-August 2020.

Author

Ugarte, MP, Achilleos, S, Quattrocchi, A, Gabel, J, Kolokotroni, O, Constantinou, C, Nicolaou, N, Rodriguez-Llanes, JM, Huang, Q, Verstiuk, O, Pidmurniak, N, Tao, JW, Burström, B, Klepac, P, Erzen, I, Chong, M, Barron, M, Hagen, TP, Kalmatayeva, Z, Davletov, K, Zucker, I, Kaufman, Z, Kereselidze, M, Kandelaki, L, Le Meur, N, Goldsmith, L, Critchley, JA, Pinilla, MA, Jaramillo, GI, Teixeira, D, Goméz, LF, Lobato, J, Araújo, C, Cuthbertson, J, Bennett, CM, Polemitis, A, Charalambous, A, Demetriou, CA, C-MOR consortium, Ugarte, MP, Achilleos, S, Quattrocchi, A, Gabel, J, Kolokotroni, O, Constantinou, C, Nicolaou, N, Rodriguez-Llanes, JM, Huang, Q, Verstiuk, O, Pidmurniak, N, Tao, JW, Burström, B, Klepac, P, Erzen, I, Chong, M, Barron, M, Hagen, TP, Kalmatayeva, Z, Davletov, K, Zucker, I, Kaufman, Z, Kereselidze, M, Kandelaki, L, Le Meur, N, Goldsmith, L, Critchley, JA, Pinilla, MA, Jaramillo, GI, Teixeira, D, Goméz, LF, Lobato, J, Araújo, C, Cuthbertson, J, Bennett, CM, Polemitis, A, Charalambous, A, Demetriou, CA, and C-MOR consortium

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). METHODS: Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. RESULTS: As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18-185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112-1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of

Published
2022

30. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Kyu, H, Abate, D, Abate, K, Abay, S, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abil, O, Aboyans, V, Abrham, A, Abu-Raddad, L, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Accrombessi, M, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Ackerman, I, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adekanmbi, V, Ademi, Z, Adetokunboh, O, Adib, M, Adsuar, J, Afanvi, K, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Aggarwal, R, Aghayan, S, Agrawal, A, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, M, Ahmed, S, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Al-Raddadi, R, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, S, Alene, K, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, S, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Aminde, L, Amini, E, Amiresmaili, M, Ammar, W, Amoako, Y, Anber, N, Andrei, C, Androudi, S, Animut, M, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, M, Antonio, C, Anwari, P, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Arnlov, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, K, Asayesh, H, Ataro, Z, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Avokpaho, E, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, P, Babazadeh, A, Badali, H, Balakrishnan, K, Bali, A, Banach, M, Banoub, J, Barac, A, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Barnighausen, T, Barquera, S, Barrero, L, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, B, Bekru, E, Belachew, A, Belay, Y, Bell, M, Bello, A, Bennett, D, Bensenor, I, Berhane, A, Bernabe, E, Bernstein, R, Beuran, M, Beyranvand, T, Bhala, N, Bhatt, S, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, Z, Biadgo, B, Biehl, M, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Bilano, V, Bililign, N, Bin Sayeed, M, Bisanzio, D, Bjorge, T, Bleyer, A, Bobasa, E, Bou-Orm, I, Boufous, S, Bourne, R, Brady, O, Brant, L, Brayne, C, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, N, Brenner, H, Briant, P, Briko, A, Britton, G, Brugha, T, Buchbinder, R, Busse, R, Butt, Z, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Campuzano Rincon, J, Cano, J, Cardenas, R, Carrero, J, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Rivas, J, Castro, F, Catala-Lopez, F, Cercy, K, Cerin, E, Chaiah, Y, Chang, J, Charlson, F, Chattu, V, Chiang, P, Chitheer, A, Choi, J, Christensen, H, Christopher, D, Chung, S, Cicuttini, F, Cirillo, M, Collado-Mateo, D, Cooper, C, Cortesi, P, Cortinovis, M, Cousin, E, Criqui, M, Cromwell, E, Cross, M, Crump, J, Daba, A, Dachew, B, Dadi, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, P, Daryani, A, Das Gupta, R, Das Neves, J, Dasa, T, Davitoiu, D, De La Hoz, F, De Leo, D, De Neve, J, De Steur, H, Degefa, M, Degenhardt, L, Deiparine, S, Demoz, G, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Dervenis, N, Des Jarlais, D, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, S, Dhimal, M, Dinberu, M, Dirac, M, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Dokova, K, Doku, D, Dorsey, E, Doyle, K, Driscoll, T, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, E, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Ebrahimi, H, Ebrahimpour, S, Echko, M, Edessa, D, Edvardsson, D, Effiong, A, Eggen, A, Ehrlich, J, El Bcheraoui, C, El-Khatib, Z, Elyazar, I, Enayati, A, Endalifer, M, Endries, A, Er, B, Erskine, H, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Fakhim, H, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Farhadi, F, Farid, T, Sa Farinha, C, Farioli, A, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fazaeli, A, Feigin, V, Fentahun, N, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Fernandes, J, Ferrari, A, Ferreira, M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Foigt, N, Foreman, K, Frank, T, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Furst, T, Furtado, J, Gakidou, E, Gall, S, Gallus, S, Ganji, M, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Gardner, W, Gebre, A, Gebremedhin, A, Gebremichael, T, Gelano, T, Geleijnse, J, Genova-Maleras, R, Geramo, Y, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadami, M, Ghadiri, K, Ghasemi-Kasman, M, Ghimire, M, Ghoshal, A, Gill, P, Gill, T, Ginawi, I, Giussani, G, Gnedovskaya, E, Goldberg, E, Goli, S, Gomez-Dantes, H, Gona, P, Gopalani, S, Gorman, T, Goulart, A, Goulart, B, Grada, A, Grosso, G, Gugnani, H, Guillemin, F, Guo, Y, Gupta, P, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Gutierrez, R, Gyawali, B, Haagsma, J, Hachinski, V, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Bidgoli, H, Hagos, T, Hailegiyorgis, T, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, R, Hamidi, S, Handal, A, Hankey, G, Hao, Y, Harb, H, Harikrishnan, S, Haririan, H, Haro, J, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, R, Hay, S, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A, Heibati, B, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Heredia-Pi, I, Herteliu, C, Heydarpour, F, Heydarpour, P, Hibstu, D, Hoek, H, Hoffman, H, Hole, M, Rad, E, Hoogar, P, Hosgood, H, Hosseini, S, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hotez, P, Hoy, D, Hsairi, M, Htet, A, Huang, J, Iburg, K, Ikeda, C, Ilesanmi, O, Irvani, S, Irvine, C, Islam, S, Islami, F, Jacobsen, K, Jahangiry, L, Jahanmehr, N, Jain, S, Jakovljevic, M, James, S, Jayatilleke, A, Jeemon, P, Jha, R, Jha, V, Ji, J, Johnson, C, Jonas, J, Jonnagaddala, J, Shushtari, Z, Joshi, A, Jozwiak, J, Jungari, S, Jurisson, M, Kabir, Z, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kalani, R, Kanchan, T, Kar, C, Karami, M, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karema, C, Karimi, N, Karimi, S, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, D, Kassa, G, Kassa, T, Kassebaum, N, Katikireddi, S, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazemi, Z, Kazemi Karyani, A, Keighobadi, M, Keiyoro, P, Kemmer, L, Kemp, G, Kengne, A, Keren, A, Khader, Y, Khafaei, B, Khafaie, M, Khajavi, A, Khalid, N, Khalil, I, Khan, E, Khan, M, Khang, Y, Khater, M, Khazaei, M, Khoja, A, Khosravi, A, Khosravi, M, Kiadaliri, A, Kidanemariam, Z, Kiirithio, D, Kim, C, Kim, D, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kinfu, Y, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Knudsen, A, Kocarnik, J, Kochhar, S, Kokubo, Y, Kolola, T, Kopec, J, Kosen, S, Kotsakis, G, Koul, P, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Krishnaswami, S, Krohn, K, Defo, B, Bicer, B, Kumar, G, Kumar, M, Kuzin, I, Lad, D, Lad, S, Lafranconi, A, Lalloo, R, Lallukka, T, Lami, F, Lang, J, Langan, S, Lansingh, V, Latifi, A, Lau, K, Lazarus, J, Leasher, J, Ledesma, J, Lee, P, Leigh, J, Leili, M, Leshargie, C, Leung, J, Levi, M, Lewycka, S, Li, S, Li, Y, Liang, X, Liao, Y, Liben, M, Lim, L, Lim, S, Limenih, M, Linn, S, Liu, S, Looker, K, Lopez, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lozano, R, Lucas, T, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, R, Ma, S, Macarayan, E, Mackay, M, Maddison, E, Madotto, F, Maghavani, D, Mai, H, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, D, Mamun, A, Manda, A, Manguerra, H, Mansournia, M, Mantilla Herrera, A, Mantovani, L, Maravilla, J, Marcenes, W, Marks, A, Martins-Melo, F, Martopullo, I, Marz, W, Marzan, M, Massano, J, Massenburg, B, Mathur, M, Maulik, P, Mazidi, M, Mcalinden, C, Mcgrath, J, Mckee, M, Mcmahon, B, Mehata, S, Mehrotra, R, Mehta, K, Mehta, V, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Mekonen, T, Melese, A, Melku, M, Memiah, P, Memish, Z, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, G, Mensah, G, Mereta, S, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Millear, A, Miller, T, Mini, G, Mirarefin, M, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, E, Misganaw, A, Mitchell, P, Mitiku, H, Moazen, B, Mohajer, B, Mohammad, K, Mohammadi, M, Mohammadifard, N, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M, Mohammed, M, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, A, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Montanez, J, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradinazar, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Velasquez, I, Morgado-Da-Costa, J, Morrison, S, Moschos, M, Mousavi, S, Mruts, K, Muche, A, Muchie, K, Mueller, U, Muhammed, O, Mukhopadhyay, S, Muller, K, Mumford, J, Murthy, G, Musa, K, Mustafa, G, Nabhan, A, Nagata, C, Nagel, G, Naghavi, M, Naheed, A, Nahvijou, A, Naik, G, Najafi, F, Nam, H, Nangia, V, Nansseu, J, Neamati, N, Negoi, I, Negoi, R, Neupane, S, Newton, C, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, A, Nguyen, G, Nguyen, H, Nguyen, L, Nguyen, M, Nguyen, N, Nguyen, S, Nichols, E, Ningrum, D, Nixon, M, Nomura, S, Noroozi, M, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nouri, H, Shiadeh, M, Nowroozi, M, Nsoesie, E, Nyasulu, P, Odell, C, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, F, Oh, I, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, A, Olagunju, T, Olivares, P, Olsen, H, Olusanya, B, Olusanya, J, Ong, K, Ong, S, Oren, E, Ortiz, A, Ota, E, Otstavnov, S, Overland, S, Owolabi, M, Mahesh, P, Pacella, R, Pakhare, A, Pakpour, A, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Park, E, Park, J, Parry, C, Parsian, H, Pasdar, Y, Patel, S, Patil, S, Patle, A, Patton, G, Paturi, V, Paudel, D, Paulson, K, Pearce, N, Pereira, A, Pereira, D, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Pham, H, Phillips, M, Pigott, D, Pillay, J, Piradov, M, Pirsaheb, M, Pishgar, F, Plana-Ripoll, O, Polinder, S, Popova, S, Postma, M, Pourshams, A, Poustchi, H, Prabhakaran, D, Prakash, S, Prakash, V, Prasad, N, Purcell, C, Qorbani, M, Quistberg, D, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi, K, Rahimi, Z, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Ur Rahman, M, Rahman, S, Rai, R, Rajati, F, Ranjan, P, Rao, P, Rasella, D, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Reddy, K, Reiner, R, Reitsma, M, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, A, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Rezai, M, Ribeiro, A, Roberts, N, Robinson, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Roth, G, Rothenbacher, D, Rubagotti, E, Sachdev, P, Sadat, N, Sadeghi, E, Saeedi Moghaddam, S, Safari, H, Safari, Y, Safari-Faramani, R, Safdarian, M, Safi, S, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, M, Sajadi, H, Salam, N, Salama, J, Salamati, P, Saleem, Z, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Salomon, J, Salvi, S, Salz, I, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Sanchez-Nino, M, Santomauro, D, Santos, I, Santos, J, Santric Milicevic, M, Sao Jose, B, Sardana, M, Sarker, A, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sartorius, B, Sarvi, S, Sathian, B, Satpathy, M, Sawant, A, Sawhney, M, Saxena, S, Schaeffner, E, Schmidt, M, Schneider, I, Schutte, A, Schwebel, D, Schwendicke, F, Scott, J, Sekerija, M, Sepanlou, S, Servan-Mori, E, Seyedmousavi, S, Shabaninejad, H, Shafieesabet, A, Shahbazi, M, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, H, Sharafi, K, Sharif, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, Sharma, J, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shi, P, Shibuya, K, Shiferaw, M, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shirkoohi, R, Shiue, I, Shokoohinia, Y, Shokraneh, F, Shoman, H, Shrime, M, Si, S, Siabani, S, Sibai, A, Siddiqi, T, Sigfusdottir, I, Sigurvinsdottir, R, Silva, D, Silva, J, Silveira, D, Singam, N, Singh, J, Singh, N, Singh, V, Sinha, D, Skiadaresi, E, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Smith, D, Smith, M, Filho, A, Sobaih, B, Sobhani, S, Soofi, M, Sorensen, R, Soyiri, I, Sposato, L, Sreeramareddy, C, Srinivasan, V, Stanaway, J, Starodubov, V, Stein, D, Steiner, C, Steiner, T, Stokes, M, Stovner, L, Subart, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, M, Sulo, G, Sunguya, B, Sur, P, Sykes, B, Sylaja, P, Sylte, D, Szoeke, C, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tabuchi, T, Tadakamadla, S, Tandon, N, Tassew, S, Tavakkoli, M, Taveira, N, Taylor, H, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekalign, T, Tekelemedhin, S, Tekle, M, Temsah, M, Temsah, O, Terkawi, A, Tessema, B, Teweldemedhin, M, Thankappan, K, Theis, A, Thirunavukkarasu, S, Thomas, N, Tilahun, B, To, Q, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Torre, A, Tortajada-Girbes, M, Touvier, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Towbin, J, Tran, B, Tran, K, Troeger, C, Tsadik, A, Tsoi, D, Tudor Car, L, Tyrovolas, S, Ukwaja, K, Ullah, I, Undurraga, E, Updike, R, Usman, M, Uthman, O, Vaduganathan, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, P, Varavikova, E, Varughese, S, Vasankari, 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Abstract

Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased

Published
2018

31. Changing the Mindset of Engineering Educators to Teach Design Studios

Author

Tekmen-Araci Y, Francis B, Hadgraft R, Zucker I, Lawson J, and Jarman R

Subjects
ComputingMilieux_COMPUTERSANDEDUCATION, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

© 2020, Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology at the University of Technology Sydney recruited and established a ‘Learning and Teaching Design’ team. One of the primary aims of this team was to change the mindset of engineering academics to deliver a curriculum that produced More Innovative Design-Abled Students and Staff (MIDAS). To model what an inspiring pedagogy might look like, a set of short, intensive, summer school offerings were designed and delivered. These ‘MIDAS Summer Studios’ aimed to strategically shift the culture of education and to revolutionise how students learn engineering and information technology. In order to confirm that each of the MIDAS Summer Studios and their studio leaders delivered a calibrated student learning experience, a series of training workshops were delivered to ensure the language used by studio facilitators remained consistent. During these workshops, the participants were encouraged to adopt some values and principles. This study reports how these values have been effective in transforming engineering education in one Australian university.

Published
2020

32. Students Take over as Curriculum Co-designers and Facilitators: A Case Study from Engineering

Author

Lawson J, Zucker I, and Hadgraft R

Subjects
ComputingMilieux_COMPUTERSANDEDUCATION, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

© 2020, Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology (FEIT) at the University of Technology Sydney is taking courageous and creative steps in its teaching and learning. FEIT is developing landmark innovations to transform the curriculum to better engage with students and respond to the demands of a rapidly changing future workforce. For example, drawing inspiration from design studios, many programs now contain engineering studios to engage students in authentic and complex problems drawn from professional practice. This chapter reports on the first iteration of ‘Summer Studios’, an innovative subject that involved senior undergraduate students designing and facilitating studios for fellow students.

Published
2020

38. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

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Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammadi, Moslem, Mohammadifard, Noushin, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa, Mohammed, Mohammed A, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohebi, Farnam, Mokdad, Ali H, Molokhia, Mariam, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montañez, Julio Cesar, Moosazadeh, Mahmood, Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi, Mahmoudreza, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradinazar, Mehdi, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Moreno Velásquez, Ilai, Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Dougla, Moschos, Marilita M, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Mruts, Kalayu Brhane, Muche, Achenef Asmamaw, Muchie, Kindie Fentahun, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Muhammed, Oumer Sada, Mukhopadhyay, Satinath, Muller, Kate, Mumford, John Everett, Murthy, G.V.S., Musa, Kamarul Imran, Mustafa, Ghulam, Nabhan, Ashraf F, Nagata, Chie, Nagel, Gabriele, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Nahvijou, Azin, Naik, Gurudatta, Najafi, Farid, Nam, Hae Sung, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Neamati, Nahid, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Neupane, Suba, Newton, Charles Richard Jame, Ngunjiri, Josephine W, Nguyen, Anh Quynh, Nguyen, Grant, Nguyen, Ha Thu, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Huong Thanh, Nguyen, Long Hoang, Nguyen, Minh, Nguyen, Nam Ba, Nguyen, Son Hoang, Nichols, Emma, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nixon, Molly R, Nomura, Shuhei, Noroozi, Mehdi, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacque, Nouri, Hamid Reza, Shiadeh, Malihe Nourollahpour, Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza, Nsoesie, Elaine O, Nyasulu, Peter S, Odell, Christopher M, Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew T, Olagunju, Tinuke O, Olivares, Pedro R, Olsen, Helen Elizabeth, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Kanyin L, Ong, Sok King, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Ota, Erika, Otstavnov, Stanislav S, Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, P A, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana, Pakhare, Abhijit P, Pakpour, Amir H, Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Park, Eun-Kee, Park, Jame, Parry, Charles D H, Parsian, Hadi, Pasdar, Yahya, Patel, Shanti, Patil, Snehal T, Patle, Ajay, Patton, George C, Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao, Paudel, Deepak, Paulson, Katherine R, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, Alexandre, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pham, Hai Quang, Phillips, Michael R, Pigott, David M, Pillay, Julian David, Piradov, Michael A, Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pishgar, Farhad, Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer, Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Postma, Maarten J, Pourshams, Akram, Poustchi, Hossein, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prakash, Swayam, Prakash, V., Prasad, Narayan, Purcell, Caroline A, Qorbani, Mostafa, Quistberg, D Alex, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rafiei, Alireza, Rahim, Fakher, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi, Zohreh, Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajati, Fatemeh, Ranjan, Prabhat, Rao, Puja C, Rasella, Davide, Rawaf, David Laith, Rawaf, Salman, Reddy, K Srinath, Reiner, Robert C, Reitsma, Marissa Bettay, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renzaho, Andre M N, Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Satar, Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P, Roberts, Nicholas L S, Robinson, Stephen R, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostami, Ali, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rubagotti, Enrico, Sachdev, Perminder S, Sadat, Nafi, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar, Safari, Hosein, Safari, Yahya, Safari-Faramani, Roya, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, Haniye Sadat, Salam, Nasir, Salama, Joseph S, Salamati, Payman, Saleem, Zikria, Salimi, Yahya, Salimzadeh, Hamideh, Salomon, Joshua A, Salvi, Sundeep Santosh, Salz, Inbal, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolore, Santomauro, Damian Francesco, Santos, Itamar S, Santos, João Vasco, Santric Milicevic, Milena M, Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi, Sardana, Mayank, Sarker, Abdur Razzaque, Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo, Sarrafzadegan, Nizal, Sartorius, Benn, Sarvi, Shahabeddin, Sathian, Brijesh, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawant, Arundhati R, Sawhney, Monika, Saxena, Sonia, Schaeffner, Elke, Schmidt, Maria Inê, Schneider, Ione J C, Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth, Schwebel, David C, Schwendicke, Falk, Scott, James G, Sekerija, Mario, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serván-Mori, Edson, Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba, Shabaninejad, Hosein, Shafieesabet, Azadeh, Shahbazi, Mehdi, Shaheen, Amira A, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran, Shamsi, Mohammadbagher, Sharafi, Heidar, Sharafi, Kiomar, Sharif, Mehdi, Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi, Sharma, Jayendra, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Sheikh, Aziz, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay, Shigematsu, Mika, Shiri, Rahman, Shirkoohi, Reza, Shiue, Ivy, Shokoohinia, Yalda, Shokraneh, Farhad, Shoman, Haitham, Shrime, Mark G, Si, Si, Siabani, Soraya, Sibai, Abla Mehio, Siddiqi, Tariq J, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig, Silva, Diego Augusto Santo, Silva, João Pedro, Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alve, Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Narinder Pal, Singh, Virendra, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Smith, David L, Smith, Mari, Soares Filho, Adauto Martin, Sobaih, Badr Hasan, Sobhani, Soheila, Soofi, Moslem, Sorensen, Reed J D, Soyiri, Ireneous N, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Srinivasan, Vinay, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Starodubov, Vladimir I, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steiner, Timothy J, Stokes, Mark A, Stovner, Lars Jacob, Subart, Michelle L, Sudaryanto, Agu, Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale, Sulo, Gerhard, Sunguya, Bruno F, Sur, Patrick John, Sykes, Bryan L, Sylaja, P.N., Sylte, Dillon O, Szoeke, Cassandra E I, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tabuchi, Takahiro, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Tandon, Nikhil, Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Taylor, Hugh R, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw, Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey, Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin, Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Temsah, Omar, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Tessema, Belay, Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Theis, Andrew, Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish, Thomas, Nihal, Tilahun, Binyam, To, Quyen G, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna E, Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel, Touvier, Mathilde, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Tran, Bach Xuan, Tran, Khanh Bao, Troeger, Christopher E, Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel, Tsoi, Derrick, Tudor Car, Lorainne, Tyrovolas, Stefano, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Ullah, Irfan, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Updike, Rachel L, Usman, Muhammad Shariq, Uthman, Olalekan A, Vaduganathan, Muthiah, Vaezi, Afsane, Valdez, Pascual R, Varavikova, Elena, Varughese, Santosh, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Villafaina, Santo, Violante, Francesco S, Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch, Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Vosoughi, Kia, Vujcic, Isidora S, Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw, Waheed, Yasir, Wang, Yafeng, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Weiss, Daniel J, Weldegebreal, Fitsum, Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey, Werdecker, Andrea, West, T Eoin, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Widecka, Justyna, Wijeratne, Tissa, Williams, Hywel C, Wilner, Lauren B, Wilson, Shadrach, Winkler, Andrea Sylvia, Wiyeh, Alison B, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wolfe, Charles D A, Woolf, Anthony D, Wyper, Grant M A, Xavier, Deni, Xu, Gelin, Yadgir, Simon, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein, Yamada, Tomohide, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Yasin, Yasin Jemal, Yeshaneh, Alex, Yimer, Ebrahim M, Yip, Paul, Yisma, Engida, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yousefifard, Mahmoud, Yu, Chuanhua, Zadnik, Vesna, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaman, Sojib Bin, Zamani, Mohammad, Zandian, Hamed, Zar, Heather J, Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Zhou, Maigeng, Zipkin, Ben, Zodpey, Sanjay, Zucker, Inbar, Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna, and Murray, Christopher J L

Subjects
Male, Health Status, health statu, HALE, mortality rate, communicable disease, DALYs, Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, Prevalence, Medicine and Health Sciences, Singapore, OUTCOMES, disability-adjusted life year, international cooperation, Medicine (all), 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Central African Republic, newborn disease, IRON-DEFICIENCY, AIDS, priority journal, Bahrain, disease severity, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, cerebrovascular accident, Ukraine, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, INTERVENTIONS, Slovakia, DISORDERS, Burundi, WEIGHTS, GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, Communicable Diseases, Article, STYLE, Medicine, General & Internal, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Humans, Disabled Persons, human, Healthy Lifestyle, HALE, DALYs, global burden of disease, Mortality, Aged, Science & Technology, Mortality, Premature, HIV, ischemic heart disease, major clinical study, PREVENTION, non communicable disease, GBD, disability-adjusted life-years, age, sex factor, Socioeconomic Factors, Algeria, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, lower respiratory tract infection, Wounds and Injuries, GENDER, Human medicine, trend study, chronic obstructive lung disease
Abstract

Background How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7.4 years (95% uncertainty interval 74-7.8), from 65.6 years (65.3-65- 8) in 1990 to 73.0 years (72.7-73.3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5.1 years (5.0-5.3) in high SDI countries to 12.0 years (11.3-12.8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26.3% (20.1-33.1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11.7% (8.8-15.1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6.3 years (5.9-6.7), from 57.0 years (54.6-59.1) in 1990 to 63.3 years (60.5-65.7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3.8 years (3.4-4.1) in high SDI countries to 10.5 years (9.8-11.2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1.0 year (0.4-1.7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62.4 years [59.9-64.7] in 1990 to 63.5 years [60.9-65.8] in 2017) to 23.7 years (21.9-25.6) in Eritrea (30.7 years [28.9-32.2] in 1990 to 54.4 years [51.5-57.1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1.4 years (0.6-2.3) in Algeria to 11.9 years (10.9-12.9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75.8 years [72.4-78.7]) and males (72.6 years [69 " 8-75.0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47.0 years [43.7-50.2] for females and 42.8 years [40.1-45.6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41.3% (38.8-43.5) for communicable diseases and by 49"8% (47.9-51.6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40.1% (36.8-43.0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18.1% (16.0-20.2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low S DI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2018

41. High Performance Nanofiltration Membrane for Effective Removal of Perfluoroalkyl Substances at High Water Recovery

Author

Boo, C, Wang, Y, Zucker, I, Choo, Y, Osuji, CO, and Elimelech, M

Subjects
Fluorocarbons, Nylons, Water, Membranes, Artificial, Environmental Sciences, Polymerization
Abstract

We demonstrate the fabrication of a loose, negatively charged nanofiltration (NF) membrane with tailored selectivity for the removal of perfluoroalkyl substances with reduced scaling potential. A selective polyamide layer was fabricated on top of a poly(ether sulfone) support via interfacial polymerization of trimesoyl chloride and a mixture of piperazine and bipiperidine. Incorporating high molecular weight bipiperidine during the interfacial polymerization enables the formation of a loose, nanoporous selective layer structure. The fabricated NF membrane possessed a negative surface charge and had a pore diameter of ∼1.2 nm, much larger than a widely used commercial NF membrane (i.e., NF270 with pore diameter of ∼0.8 nm). We evaluated the performance of the fabricated NF membrane for the rejection of different salts (i.e., NaCl, CaCl2, and Na2SO4) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The fabricated NF membrane exhibited a high retention of PFOA (∼90%) while allowing high passage of scale-forming cations (i.e., calcium). We further performed gypsum scaling experiments to demonstrate lower scaling potential of the fabricated loose porous NF membrane compared to NF membranes having a dense selective layer under solution conditions simulating high water recovery. Our results demonstrate that properly designed NF membranes are a critical component of a high recovery NF system, which provide an efficient and sustainable solution for remediation of groundwater contaminated with perfluoroalkyl substances.

Published
2018

44. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Dicker, D. Nguyen, G. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abdurahman, A.A. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.L.C.B. Ahmed, S. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Anlay, D.Z. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asadi-Lari, M. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atey, T.M.M. Athari, S.S. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Attia, E.F. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awuah, B. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatia, E. Bhatt, S. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Bleyer, A. Bora Basara, B. Bose, D. Bosetti, C. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Bragazzi, N.L. Brant, L.C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Burke, K.E. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Çavlin, A. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Champs, A.P. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chattopadhyay, A. Chaturvedi, P. Chen, W. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Constantin, M.-M. Conti, S. Cooper, C. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cucu, A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. Dayama, A. de Courten, B. De la Hoz, F.P. De leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Ding, E.L. Djalalinia, S. Doku, D.T. Dolan, K.A. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Drake, T.M. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. Elfaramawi, M. El-Khatib, Z. Ellingsen, C.L. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y.Y. Er, B. Ermakov, S.P. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Farag, T. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. E Sá Farinha, C.S. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Feizy, F. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Feyissa, G.T. Fijabi, D.O. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Ford, J.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Galan, A. Gallus, S. Gambashidze, K. Gamkrelidze, A. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gebre, T. Gebre, A.K. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gelano, T.F. Gelaw, Y.A. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Gessner, B.D. Getachew, S. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goli, S. Gomez, R.S. Gomez-Cabrera, M.C. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Horino, M. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, S. Hostiuc, M. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Iburg, K.M. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Isehunwa, O.O. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, R. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayaraman, S. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jee, S.H. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Madhanraj, K. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kahssay, M. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Katibeh, M. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemeini, H. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Prakash, K.C. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kereselidze, M. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D.D. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kissoon, N. Kivimäki, M. Kleber, M.E. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kudom, A.A. Kuipers, E.J. Kulikoff, X.R. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kumsa, F.A. Kutz, M.J. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lan, Q. Langan, S.M. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Lavados, P.M. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Leta, S. Levi, M. Li, S. Li, Y. Li, X. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lonsdale, C. Lorch, S.A. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Mabika, C. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Maddison, R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malik, M.A. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manamo, W.A. Manda, A.-L. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marina, S. Martinez-Raga, J. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Masiye, F. Massenburg, B.B. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehata, S. Mehendale, S.M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonen, T. Mekonnen, T.C. Meles, H.G. Meles, K.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Moges, N.A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohammed, M.A. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Mullany, E.C. Muller, K. Murhekar, M. Murphy, T.B. Murthy, G.V.S. Murthy, S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Opio, J.N. Oren, E. Ortiz, J.R. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandey, A.R. Pandian, J.D. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Patle, A. Patten, S.B. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Pearce, N. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perez, K.M. Perico, N. Pervaiz, A. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Pond, C.D. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, V. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Qorbani, M. Quistberg, D.A. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Ur Rahman, S. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Raju, S.B. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Ranta, A. Rasella, D. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Ray, S.E. Razo-García, C. Rego, M.A.S. Rehm, J. Reiner, R.C. Reinig, N. Reis, C. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Riojas, H. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Roshchin, D.O. Rostami, A. Rothenbacher, D. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Saadat, S. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salahshoor, M. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saldanha, R.F. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Sayyah, M. Scaria, V. Schaeffner, E. Schelonka, K. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shakir, R.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Sheth, K.N. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shifa, G.T. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shrime, M.G. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silpakit, N. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, V. Sinha, A.P. Sinha, D.N. Sitas, F. Skirbekk, V. Sliwa, K. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Srivastava, R.K. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Steel, N. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, L.A. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Topouzis, F. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsilimparis, N. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Vidavalur, R. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.W.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wondemagegn, S.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yadav, R. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. York, H.W. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zachariah, G. Zadnik, V. Zafar, S. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeeb, H. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, K. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lopez, A.D. Gakidou, E. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).

Published
2018

45. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Lozano, R. Fullman, N. Abate, D. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, N.D. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M. Abyu, G.Y. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aghayan, S.A. Agius, D. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Akalu, T.Y. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alam, T. Albujeer, A. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Alhabib, S. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Almasi, A. Al-Maskari, F. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amenu, K. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Asghar, R.J. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Quintanilla, B.P.A. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azarpazhooh, M.R. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banerjee, A. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Barthelemy, C.M. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Battista, R.J. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. 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Edvardsson, D. El Bcheraoui, C. Eldrenkamp, E. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Estep, K. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Fanzo, J. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Farinha, C.S.E.S. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Farzam, H. Fazaeli, A.A. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fekadu, W. Feldman, R. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Feyissa, G.T. Fijabi, D.O. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Frank, T.D. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Fukutaki, K. Fuller, J.E. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Gakidou, E. Gallus, S. Gankpe, F.G. Gansevoort, R.T. Garcia, A.C. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebre, T. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Getachew, S. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Griswold, M.G. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C.C. Guillemin, F. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Ha, G.H. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Bidgoli, H.H. Hagos, T.B. Haile, M.T. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, B. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Híjar, M. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, D.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Horita, N. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Hughes, C. Huynh, C.K. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Ivers, R.Q. Izadi, N. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. Jamal, A.A. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Madhanraj, K. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kahssay, M. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Matin, B.K. Karanikolos, M. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Karyani, A.K. Kazi, D.S. Prakash, K.C. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaeipour, Z. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiarie, H.W. Kibret, G.D. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kissoon, N. Kivimäki, M. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kudom, A.A. Kulikoff, X.R. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lagat, A.K. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lamichhane, P. Lan, Q. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Larsson, A.O. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Lebedev, G. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, J.B. Lee, P.H. Leever, A.T. Leigh, J. Leinsalu, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, X. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lucchesi, L.R. Lyons, R.A. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Maghavani, D.P. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Mangalam, S. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Mekonnen, T.C.C. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. 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Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Milicevic, M.M.S. Jose, B.P.S. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M.B. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. 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Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whisnant, J.L. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolde, H.F. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Xu, R. Yadollahpour, A. Jabbari, S.H.Y. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zegeye, D.T. Zegeye, E.A. Zeleke, A.J. Zendehdel, K. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lim, S.S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

46. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Kyu, H.H. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Amiresmaili, M. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatt, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bobasa, E.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. 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Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Williams, H.C. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zar, H.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zipkin, B. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 DALYs HALE Collaborators

Abstract

Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2018

47. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

James, S.L. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alouani, M.M.L. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. 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Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, C.T. Ileanu, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Mohammed, S. Islam, S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Jonas, J.B. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kawakami, N. Kazemi Karyani, A. Keighobadi, M.M. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khazaei, M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, P. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Kotsakis, G.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Looker, K.J. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Low, N. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lucchesi, L.R. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Mahotra, N.B. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Manhertz, T. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Meltzer, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezerji, N.M.G. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miltz, B. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Moitra, M. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murhekar, M. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prakash, V. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Quistberg, D.A. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Ram, U. Ranjan, P. Ranta, A. Rao, P.C. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reinig, N. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezai, M.S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Sadat, N. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saleem, K. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shishani, K. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Slepak, E.L.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Soosaraei, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Steiner, T.J. Stokes, M.A. Stovner, L.J. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylte, D.O. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tadesse, B.T. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Taylor, H.R. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Thomas, N. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Topouzis, F. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Tsilimbaris, M.K. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Unutzer, J. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, K. Zhao, Z. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Vos, T. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Disease Injury Incidence Prevalence Collaborators

Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2018

49. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

Sartorius B., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Winkler A.S., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondemagegn S.A., Wu S., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yadav R., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., YentA1/4r G.K., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., York H.W., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zachariah G., Zadnik V., Zafar S., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeeb H., Zeleke M.M., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang K., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lopez A.D., Gakidou E., Murray C.J.L., de Courten B., Thrift A.G., Dicker D., Nguyen G., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdel-Rahman O., Abdi A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abdurahman A.A., Abebe H.T., Abebe M., Abebe Z., Abebo T.A., Aboyans V., Abraha H.N., Abrham A.R., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya P., Adebayo O.M., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhena B.M., Adhikari T.B., Adib M.G., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Agrawal A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadi A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.L.C.B., Ahmed S., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akanda A.S., Akbari M.E., Akibu M., Akinyemi R.O., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alebel A., Aleman A.V., Alene K.A., Al-Eyadhy A., Ali R., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C.A., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Anlay D.Z., Ansari H., Ansariadi A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Appiah S.C.Y., Aremu O., Areri H.A., ArnlAv J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asadi-Lari M., Asayesh H., Asfaw E.T., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Ataro Z., Atey T.M.M., Athari S.S., Atique S., Atre S.R., Atteraya M.S., Attia E.F., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Awuah B., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayele H.T., Ayele Y., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Azzopardi-Muscat N., Badali H., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bali A.G., Banach M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barquera S., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Bassat Q., Basu A., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., BACopyrightjot Y., Bekele B.B., Belachew A.B., Belay A.G., Belay E., Belay S.A., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bertolacci G.J., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhatia E., Bhatt S., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M.S., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bisanzio D., Biswas T., BjArge T., Bleyer A., Bora Basara B., Bose D., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Britton G., Brugha T., Burke K.E., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Callender C.S.K.H., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano Rincon J.C., Cano J., Car M., CArdenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., CastaA+/-eda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., CatalA-LApez F., Aavlin A., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Champs A.P., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chen W., Chiang P.P.-C., Chimed-Ochir O., Chin K.L., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Cohen A.J., Collado-Mateo D., Constantin M.-M., Conti S., Cooper C., Cooper L.T., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crowe C.S., Crump J.A., Cucu A., Cunningham M., Daba A.K., Dachew B.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dang A.K., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das S.K., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Dash A.P., Davis Weaver N., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., Dayama A., De la Hoz F.P., De leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Degfie T.T., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Demtsu B.B., Denova-GutiACopyrightrrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Doku D.T., Dolan K.A., Donnelly C.A., Dorsey E.R., Douwes-Schultz D., Doyle K.E., Drake T.M., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Edessa D., Edvardsson D., Eggen A.E., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., 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Herteliu C., Heydarpour F., Heydarpour P., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoek H.W., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Horino M., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc S., Hostiuc M., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Husseini A., Hussen M.M., Hutfless S., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C.T., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Isehunwa O.O., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain R., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., James S.L., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Joshi A., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., JA1/4risson M., Madhanraj K., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kahssay M., Kalani R., Kapil U., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassa Z.Y., Kassebaum N.J., Katibeh M., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazemeini H., Kazemi Z., Kazemi Karyani A., 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P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leta S., Levi M., Li S., Li Y., Li X., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lonsdale C., Lorch S.A., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Mabika C., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Maddison R., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malik M.A., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manamo W.A., Manda A.-L., Mansournia M.A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Marami D., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marina S., Martinez-Raga J., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., MArz W., Marzan M.B., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Masiye F., Massenburg B.B., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehendale S.M., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C., Meles H.G., Meles K.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezgebe H.B., Miangotar Y., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Moazen B., Moges N.A., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed S., Mohammed M.A., Mohan V., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno VelAsquez I., Morgado-Da-costa J., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Mukhopadhyay S., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Murhekar M., Murphy T.B., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Nair S., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Nawaz H., Ncama B.P., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane 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Polinder S., Pond C.D., Popova S., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash V., Prakash S., Prasad N., Qorbani M., Quistberg D.A., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Ur Rahman S., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Ranjan P., Ranta A., Rasella D., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Razo-GarcA-a C., Rego M.A.S., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reis C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezaeian S., Rezai M.S., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.L.P., Riojas H., Rios-Blancas M.J., Roba K.T., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roshchin D.O., Rostami A., Rothenbacher D., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., 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Tortajada-GirbACopyrights M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tripathi S., Tripathy S.P., Truelsen T.C., Truong N.T., Tsadik A.G., Tsilimparis N., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Uzun S.B., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Varavikova E., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., and Vasconcelos A.M.N.

Abstract

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Method(s): The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent comp

Published
2018

50. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

Servan-Mori E., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Van Donkelaar A., Varavikova E., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Werkneh A.A., West T.E., Westerman R., Whisnant J.L., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolde H.F., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu S., Xavier D., Xu G., Xu R., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zegeye D.T., Zegeye E.A., Zeleke A.J., Zendehdel K., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zimsen S.R.M., Zodpey S., Zoeckler L., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Hughes C., Thrift A.G., Lozano R., Fullman N., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdel-Rahman O., Abdi A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe N.D., Abebe Z., Abejie A.N., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Aboyans V., Abraha H.N., Abrham A.R., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Abyu G.Y., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhena B.M., Adhikari T.B., Adib M.G., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Afshari M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agius D., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Ahmed S., Akalu T.Y., Akanda A.S., Akbari M.E., Akibu M., Akinyemi R.O., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam T., Albujeer A., Alebel A., Alene K.A., Al-Eyadhy A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C.A., Almasi A., Al-Maskari F., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amenu K., Amini E., Ammar W., Anber N.H., Anderson J.A., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Ansari H., Ansariadi A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Appiah L.T., Aremu O., Areri H.A., Arnlov J., Arora M., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asfaw E.T., Asgedom S.W., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Ataro Z., Atique S., Atre S.R., Atteraya M.S., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayele H.T., Ayele Y., Ayer R., Azarpazhooh M.R., Azzopardi P.S., Azzopardi-Muscat N., Babalola T.K., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bali A.G., Banach M., Banerjee A., Banoub J.A.M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Barthelemy C.M., Bassat Q., Basu A., Basu S., Battista R.J., Baune B.T., Baynes H.W., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Belachew A.B., Belay A.G., Belay S.A., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Benzian H., Berhane A., Berhe A.K., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bertolacci G.J., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhalla A., Bhansali A., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Biehl M.H., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bililign N., Sayeed M.S.B., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bisanzio D., Biswas T., Bitew H., Bizuneh H., Bjertness E., Bobasa E.M., Boufous S., Bourne R., Bozorgmehr K., Bragazzi N.L., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brauer M., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Briant P.S., Britton G., Brugha T., Bukhman G., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Callender C.S.K.H., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Cano J., Car J., Car M., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro F., Causey K., Cavlin A., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chalek J., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Classen T.K.D., Cohen A.J., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Cooper L.T., Cornaby L., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Cromwell E.A., Crowe C.S., Cunningham M., Daba A.K., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dang A.K., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das S.K., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Dash A.P., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., Dayama A., De Leo D., Neve J.W.D., De Steur H., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Degfie T.T., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Demtsu B., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Dicker D., Dinberu 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J.R., Lee J.B., Lee P.H., Leever A.T., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Lewycka S., Li S., Li X., Li Y., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lucchesi L.R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Madotto F., Maghavani D.P., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahotra N.B., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Mandarano-Filho L.G., Mangalam S., Manguerra H., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martin R.V., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McMahon B.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C.C., Meles H.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu 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Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Method(s): We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the prob

Published
2018

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