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The question of whether microeconomic shocks induce aggregate fluctuations constitutes a central issue in economic research. This paper introduces a general equilibrium model with production networks to explore the propagation mechanisms of microeconomic shocks. A novel triangular production network structure is introduced, and simulations are performed using China's input-output table to analyze the propagation of these shocks within the Chinese economy. The model demonstrates that the first-order effects of microeconomic shocks propagate downstream along the industrial chain, while the second-order effects of microeconomic productivity shocks propagate both upstream and downstream along the chain. The first-order propagation mechanism of microeconomic shocks involves changes in prices within the affected sector and its downstream sectors. Additionally, the second-order effects of microeconomic shocks rely on the reallocation of factors. The simulation results indicate that China's production network matrix is triangular, and that the financial sector plays a crucial role in amplifying the effects of microeconomic shocks. Government should prioritize supporting upstream fundamental sectors to mitigate the adverse impacts of external shocks on economic fluctuations and to address systemic financial risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the impact of transaction–cost-induced variations in the velocity of money on inflation dynamics in Indonesia, using a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve incorporating an explicit money-velocity term. The effect of money velocity arises from the role of money, both physical and digital, in reducing aggregate transaction costs and facilitating the purchase of goods and services. We find a non-trivial aggregate impact on the Indonesian economy: our benchmark estimates suggest that a 10% decrease in money velocity due to the issuance of a new digital currency (for example, a central bank digital currency [CBDC]), would reduce the inflation rate by 0.6%–1.7%, all else being equal. We show that shocks to the velocity of money are an important driver of aggregate fluctuations by incorporating these estimates into a small-scale New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to the Indonesian economy. The model's simulation shows that a CBDC issuance equivalent to about 5% of nominal GDP in Indonesia in 2023 would permanently increase real GDP by almost 1% and lower the inflation rate by nearly 1%. Both nominal and real interest rates would also be permanently lower. Our findings suggest that central banks could use CBDCs as an additional tool for stabilisation policy by influencing money velocity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a multisector general equilibrium framework, we show that the sectoral elasticity of substitution plays the key role in the evolution of asymmetric tails of macroeconomic fluctuations and the establishment of robustness against productivity shocks. A non-unitary elasticity of substitution renders a nonlinear Domar aggregation, where normal sectoral productivity shocks translate into non-normal aggregated shocks with variable expected output growth. We empirically estimate 100 sectoral elasticities of substitution, using the time-series linked input-output tables for Japan and find that the production economy is elastic overall, relative to a Cobb-Douglas economy with unitary elasticity. In addition to the previous assessment of an inelastic production economy for the USA, the contrasting tail asymmetry of the distribution of aggregated shocks between the USA and Japan is explained. Moreover, the robustness of an economy is assessed by expected output growth, the level of which is led by the sectoral elasticities of substitution under zero-mean productivity shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the granularity hypothesis in a large emerging economy, Kazakhstan. We use a new longitudinal dataset at the firm level and at quarterly frequency between 2012 and 2018 to document the size distribution of firms and to provide evidence that it follows a power law. We find that the largest 30 firms explain nearly 80 percent of the growth in aggregate total factor productivity. This confirms earlier research for the U.S. and other developed countries. However, the granular nature of the Kazakh economy is even more outspoken than in other countries. Thus idiosyncratic shocks and the way they ripple through the production network matter to understand changes in aggregate productivity growth. Moreover, since these granular firms are concentrated in the oil industry it exposes the vulnerability of the economy more to unexpected shocks in one industry in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct a model of cyclical growth with agent-based features designed to study the network origins of aggregate fluctuations from a demand-side perspective. In our model, aggregate fluctuations result from variations in investment behaviour at firm level motivated by endogenously-generated changes in 'animal spirits'. In addition to being influenced by their own economic conditions, firms pay attention to the performance of first-degree network neighbours, weighted (to differing degrees) by the centrality of these neighbours in the network, when revising their animal spirits. This allows us to analyse the effects of the centrality of linked network neighbours on the amplitude of aggregate fluctuations. We show that the amplitude of fluctuations is significantly affected by the eigenvector centrality, and the weight attached to the eigenvector centrality, of linked network neighbours. The dispersion of this effect about its mean is shown to be similarly important, resulting in the possibility that network properties can result in 'great moderations' giving way to sudden increases in the volatility of aggregate economic performance. • Studies 'granular' origins of aggregate fluctuations in a demand-led economy. • Firms' revision of animal spirits influenced by linked network neighbours. • Firms pay attention to linked network neighbours in accordance with their centrality. • Eigenvector centrality significantly affects the amplitude of aggregate fluctuations. • Dispersion of this effect might explain the onset and demise of 'great moderations'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To counteract the adverse effects of shocks, such as the global pandemic, on the economy, governments have discussed policies to improve the resilience of supply chains by reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. In this paper, we develop and quantify an adaptive production network model to study network resilience and the consequences of reshoring of supply chains. In our model, firms exit due to exogenous shocks or the propagation of shocks through the network, while firms can replace suppliers they have lost due to exit subject to switching costs and search frictions. Applying our model to a large international firm-level production network dataset, we find that restricting buyer-supplier links via reshoring policies reduces output and increases volatility and that volatility can be amplified through network adaptivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the empirical relationship between firm‐borrowing channels and aggregate fluctuations for the 100 largest US firms over 2000–2018. The motivation for this study originates from the general consensus in macroeconomics that microeconomic shocks to firms cannot generate significant aggregate fluctuations. The analysis extends Gabaix's 2011 baseline model by incorporating measures for "bank shocks" at the firm‐level. In addition to supporting the granular hypothesis, the econometric results indicate that bank shocks have a weak impact on GDP fluctuations, whereas non‐bank loans exert a strong impact on the same. The above findings survive certain robustness checks associated with the presence of oil and monetary shocks, as well as with the firms' location factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper provides new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household labour income risk in Great Britain and the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this source of income risk. To achieve this, we decompose stochastic idiosyncratic household income into its transitory and persistent components. We focus our analysis of income risk captured by the second to fourth moments of the probability distribution of shocks to the persistent component of income. We find that household labour income risk increases during contractions via changes in third and fourth central moments of persistent shocks to labour income, whereas the variance remains acyclical. We also find that economic policy has reduced the level of risk exposure and its increase during contractions via benefits rather than tax policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of shocks to idiosyncratic business risk in an economy with endogenously incomplete markets. I develop a model in which firms face idiosyncratic risk and obtain insurance from intermediaries through contracts akin to credit lines. Insurance is imperfect due to limited commitment in financial contracts. Although steady-state capital is higher than if firms were constrained to issue only standard equity, a rise in uncertainty about idiosyncratic business outcomes leads to an endogenous reduction in risk sharing. This deterioration in risk sharing results from a general-equilibrium shortage of pledgeable assets and implies that the economy's response to an increase in idiosyncratic business risk can be amplified by financial contracting rather than dampened. In a parametrized version of the model, a rise in idiosyncratic business risk generates a large increase in uncertainty about aggregate investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the aggregate profitability performance of the REIT industry. The aggregate performance depends on the underlying microeconomic dynamics within an industry - the growth of individual REITs (the within effect), the reallocation between existing REITs (the between effect), the entry of new REITs (the entry effect), and the exit of the existing REITs (the exit effect). We apply an extended Bennet (1920) dynamic decomposition on the REIT industry's return on equity (ROE) and study the annual data on U.S. Equity REITs for the 1989 to 2015 period and various REIT industry specific sub-sample periods. Bailey et al.'s (1992) and Haltiwanger's (1997) dynamic industry performance decompositions are special cases of the Bennet decomposition. The "within" and "between" effects dominate the annual changes in this industry's ROE. To the extent that our Equity REIT sample proxies for the FTSE NAREIT All Equity Index, our conclusions also relate to this index's profitability performance between 1989 and 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence demonstrates that credit standards, including lending margins and collateral requirements, move in a countercyclical direction. In this study, we construct a small open economy model with financial frictions to generate the countercyclical movement in credit standards. Our analysis demonstrates that countercyclical fluctuations in credit standards work as an amplifier of shocks to the economy. In particular, the existence of endogenous credit standards increases output volatility by 21%. We also suggest three alternative tools for policymakers to dampen the effects of endogenous credit standards on macroeconomic volatility. First, the introduction of credit growth to the monetary policy succeeds in counteracting the fluctuation of lending, and thus decreasing the additional volatility considerably. Second, the exchange rate augmented monetary policy, if well-constructed, is considered an efficient tool to eliminate most of the additional fluctuations caused by deep habits in the banking sector. Finally, the introduction of the foreign interest augmented policy also proves successful in dampening the effect of endogenous movements in lending standards.

Abstract Buyer–seller relationships among firms can be regarded as a longitudinal network in which the connectivity pattern evolves as each firm receives productivity shocks. Based on a data set describing the evolution of buyer–seller links among 55,608 firms over a decade and structural equation modeling, we find some evidence that interfirm networks evolve reflecting a firm’s local decisions to mitigate adverse effects from neighbor firms through interfirm linkage, while enjoying positive effects from them. As a result, link renewal tends to have a positive impact on the growth rates of firms. We also investigate the role of networks in aggregate fluctuations.

Amiti and Weinstein proposed an estimation framework to disentangle credit demand and supply shocks using matched bank-firm loan data. Here, we show that their estimator can be generalized to capture shocks arising in an arbitrary number of dimensions. Our algorithm permits empirical researchers to analyse multi-dimensional data sets using the Amiti-Weinstein framework. This may be beneficial both for studies on micro-level outcomes as well as for the literature on assessing the macroeconomic impact of idiosyncratic shocks. In an empirical application to a firm-product-country export data set, we highlight the usefulness of the generalized Amiti-Weinstein estimator, and we demonstrate the importance of considering additional dimensions when gauging the effect of granular shocks on aggregate fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is a common phenomenon that there is interaction of aggregate fluctuations among countries (areas) in the era of globalization, while lacking of quantitative studies on the interaction strength. Based on the transmission of shocks on the asymmetric inter-regional industrial network, the interaction mechanism of inter-regional aggregate fluctuations is analyzed. On the basis of inter-regional product linkages, this paper builds a regional weighted interaction network with regions for nodes, then quantitatively measures the interaction of aggregate fluctuations among regions, by analyzing the degree linkage structure, the foundational linkage structure, the core linkage structure, and the asymmetry structure of network. Example analysis shows that this model and the related measure dimensions can quantify the interaction of aggregate fluctuations among different regions, and quantitatively describe the roles of different regions in the multi-regional economic system, which is of theoretical and practical significance to regional economic cooperation, the formulation of trade rules and global value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a theoretical model with labour market frictions, incomplete financial markets, and with households which have two members. Households face unemployment risks, but their members adjust their labour supplies to insure against unemployment. We use the model to explain the cyclical properties of aggregate employment and participation. As in the U.S. data, the model predicts that the participation rate (the fraction of individuals that want jobs) is not strongly correlated with aggregate economic activity. This property is in sharp contrast to the strongly procyclical participation predicted by both neoclassical models and models with search frictions, when we assume bachelor households or households with infinitely many members (complete markets). In the two-member household model and in the data, primary earners are always in the labour force, secondary earners have a mildly countercyclical participation rate, and a mildly procyclical employment rate. Their behaviour insures the household against unemployment risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the common movements of house prices across cities as well as the macroeconomic underpinnings of the comovements in the US and China. Our empirical results indicate more differences than similarities between the US and the Chinese housing markets. The results from a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model indicate that the fluctuations of house prices across cities in the US are more a national phenomenon, while the dynamics of house prices across cities in China are mainly driven by the city-specific component. We further use VAR models to compare the roles of the underlying determinants in these two housing markets. The results show that the roles of monetary policy shocks and aggregate fluctuations in driving the common movements of house prices across cities differ substantially between the US and China at both short and long horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Following the approach proposed by Gabaix (2011), this paper aims to verify the existence of granularity in the Spanish business cycle fluctuations. A granular firm is characterized by the fact that its idiosyncratic shocks have a significant impact on GDP growth fluctuations. Despite the fact that granular firms constitute just a marginal fraction of the total number of firms, they account for a significant part of business cycle fluctuations. Our analysis shows that half of the GDP growth fluctuations of the Spanish economy can be linked to the idiosyncratic shocks of the largest 100 Spanish firms. Our work contributes to strengthening the empirical relevance of the granular hypothesis. The results show that the Spanish economy, as happens in the US economy, may be represented by a large number of small and medium enterprises whose individual evolution has no impact at the aggregate level, and a small number of large firms whose fluctuations contribute significantly to the variability of the Spanish business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces imperfect knowledge and learning behavior of economic agents into the Kiyotaki and Moore model and studies the interaction of agents' collateral price beliefs, collateral constraint, and aggregate economic activity over the business cycle. It establishes the E-stability condition and the convergence of the real time learning process. In addition, it shows that learning strengthens the role of collateral constraints in aggregate fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We construct a multiagent system (MAS) model of cyclical growth in which aggregate fluctuations result from variations in activity at the firm level. The latter, in turn, result from changes in “animal spirits” or the state of long-run expectations (SOLE) and their effect on firms’ investment behavior. We focus on the impact of publicly available information about macroeconomic conditions—analogous to the press releases of national statistical agencies—on changes in the SOLE and hence the amplitude of aggregate fluctuations. Our results suggest that the amplitude of fluctuations is reduced by extremes of attention or inattention to aggregate economic performance, but that this relationship is subject to complicated (and possibly complex) phase transitions exhibiting extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aobdia et al. (Rev Account Stud, ) view the economy as a network of customers and suppliers. Using the 1997 input-output trade flow data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis to model the inter-industry network, they examine whether an industry's position in the network, in particular, its 'network centrality,' affects the transmission of information and economic shocks. They find that, compared to the accounting performance and stock returns of noncentral industries, those of central industries are explained by aggregate risks to a greater extent and are more highly associated with the contemporaneous and future performance of their linked industries. These findings suggest that network centrality matters-it plays an important role in how economic shocks are transmitted within the economy. The question of why network centrality matters, however, remains unanswered. A fruitful avenue for future research is to explore the origin of shocks to shed light on the fundamental question of whether sectoral shocks can aggregate into macro shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a data base covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990-2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregate fluctuations. We set up a simple multisector model of heterogeneous firms selling to multiple markets to motivate a theoretically founded decomposition of firms' annual sales growth rate into different components. We find that the firm-specific component contributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility, mattering about as much as the components capturing shocks that are common across firms within a sector or country. We then decompose the firm-specific component to provide evidence on two mechanisms that generate aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic shocks highlighted in the recent literature: (i) when the firm size distribution is fat-tailed, idiosyncratic shocks to large firms directly contribute to aggregate fluctuations, and (ii) aggregate fluctuations can arise from idiosyncratic shocks due to input-output linkages across the economy. Firm linkages are approximately three times as important as the direct effect of firm shocks in driving aggregate fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with several frictions and both unanticipated and news shocks, using quarterly U.S. data from 1954 to 2004 and Bayesian methods. We find that unanticipated shocks dominate news shocks in accounting for the unconditional variance of output, consumption, and investment growth, interest rate, and the relative price of investment. The unanticipated shock to the marginal efficiency of investment is the dominant shock, accounting for over 45% of the variance in output growth. News shocks account for less than 15% of the variance in output growth. Within the set of news shocks, nontechnology sources of news dominate technology news, with wage markup news shocks accounting for about 60% of the variance share of both hours and inflation. We find that in the estimated DSGE model (i) the presence of endogenous countercyclical price and wage markups due to nominal frictions substantially diminishes the importance of news shocks relative to a model without these frictions, and (ii) while there is little change in the estimated contributions of technology news when we restrict wealth effects on labor supply, the contributions of nontechnology news shocks are relatively more sensitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do the antitrust law enforcement activities of the US Department of Justice act as exogenous “technology shocks” or as “markup shocks” limiting market power and promoting economic growth? We analyze annual time series data from 1947 to 2003 on three measures of federal antitrust intervention: the ratio of the Antitrust Division’s budgetary expenditures to GDP as well as the numbers of civil and criminal antitrust cases instituted. We find that changes in the levels of these policy variables act like negative technology shocks and that the negative effects are transitory; antitrust policy generates no subsequent offsetting increases in productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that a standard Real Business Cycle model driven by productivity shocks can successfully account for the 50% decline in cyclical volatility of output, its components, and labor input that has occurred since 1983. The model is successful because the volatility of productivity shocks has also declined significantly over the same time period. We then investigate whether the decline in the volatility of the Solow Residual is due to changes in the volatility of some other shock operating through a channel that is absent in the standard model. We therefore develop a model with variable capacity and labor utilization. We investigate whether government spending shocks, shocks that affect the household’s first order condition for labor, and shocks that affect the household’s first order condition for saving can plausibly account for the change in TFP volatility and in the volatility of output, its components, and labor. We find that none of these shocks are able to do this. This suggests that successfully accounting for the post-1983 decline in business cycle volatility requires a change in the volatility of a productivity-like shock operating within a standard growth model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We propose a simple model where long waves of innovation arise from the endogenous propagation of information among industries. Innovators of each industry invest in internal R&D and eventually in the local search for information. We are going to show that some engage in local search while others do not, depending on the structural parameters of the single industries. By means of the localised search for information, a new technology introduced in a single industry can also be introduced in other industries, leading to a considerable degree of technological correlation, and eventually to long ranged waves of innovation. We also analyse the endogenous balanced growth path of the economy, and the short run fluctuations associated with it. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Empirical evidence demonstrates that credit standards, including lending margins and collateral requirements, move in a countercyclical direction. In this study, we construct a small open economy model with financial frictions to generate the countercyclical movement in credit standards. Our analysis demonstrates that countercyclical fluctuations in credit standards work as an amplifier of shocks to the economy. In particular, the existence of endogenous credit standards increases output volatility by 21%. We also suggest three alternative tools for policymakers to dampen the effects of endogenous credit standards on macroeconomic volatility. First, the introduction of credit growth to the monetary policy succeeds in counteracting the fluctuation of lending, and thus decreasing the additional volatility considerably. Second, the exchange rate augmented monetary policy, if well-constructed, is considered an efficient tool to eliminate most of the additional fluctuations caused by deep habits in the banking sector. Finally, the introduction of the foreign interest augmented policy also proves successful in dampening the effect of endogenous movements in lending standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]