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BACKGROUND: Strawberry (Fragaria×ananassa Duch.) is a species of great economic and nutritional importance. It is widely cultivated in different regions of the world. However, climatic factors have a significant influence on its production. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ecoclimatic suitability and growth index of F.×ananassa in the face of the impacts of climate change in Brazil and the world. METHODS: The potential global distribution of F.×ananassa it was based on predicted global climate changes using CLIMEX and the A1B and A2 emissions scenario for the years 2050 and 2100. CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw) was applied, and productivity data in commercial strawberry cultivation in Brazilian areas were collected. RESULTS: The results indicate a progressive reduction in areas suitable for strawberry cultivation globally, mainly on the African continent, Australia, China, and the Americas for the years 2050 and 2100. In Brazil, only the South region and part of the Southeast will continue to be suitable for strawberry production. CONCLUSIONS: The CLIMEX model predicts a reduction in the suitable area for cultivating Fragaria×ananassa Duch between 2050 and 2100 due to climate change. The generated maps can help identify new cultivation areas and support genetic improvement programmes to develop cultivars more tolerant to heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pine wilt disease (PWD) is a devastating plant disease caused by the pinewood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) that is transmitted by several beetle species in the genus, Monochamus. Once present, the disease is difficult to control. Prevention rather than control is regarded as an effective strategy for PWD management. Central to this prevention strategy is the ability to predict the potential distribution of the disease. Here, we employed an integrated MaxEnt and CLIMEX approach to model the potential distribution of PWD under various climate‐change scenarios. Our results indicate that rising temperatures and lower humidity under climate change will render some of the northern regions of China more suitable for the nematode and these beetles, causing the gradual northward movement of PWD. Furthermore, suitable habitats for three pine species, Pinus massoniana, P. taiwanensis and P. shurbergia, overlap with PWN and Monochamus, suggesting that these three species are potentially at high risk of PWD. Thus, PWD management should target the northern regions of China and the three pine species that are most susceptible to PWD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The solanum fruit fly Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an invasive alien insect that causes huge economic losses to pepper and other solanaceous plant industries. It is mainly distributed in South and Southeast Asia, SW Europe, Western USA, and in some African countries. However, the potential global geographical distribution of B. latifrons is unknown. Therefore, in this study, based on the current (1981–2010) and future (2040–2059) climatic scenarios determined using the CNRM-CM5, Access1.0, GFDL-ESM-2M, and NorESM1-M models, we used a species distribution model (CLIMEX 4.0) to project the potential global geographic distribution of B. latifrons to prevent further invasion and harm. In the current climate scenario, South America (1286.06 × 104 km2), Africa (1435.47 × 104 km2), and Oceania (410.66 × 104 km2) have the largest proportions of suitable land areas for B. latifrons colonization. Under all four future climate models, the global potential suitable area for Bactrocera latifrons is projected to decrease and shift towards higher latitudes. This study provides an important baseline upon which researchers, quarantine personnel, and governments can develop the appropriate control strategies against B. latifrons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector relates to changes in the suitability of areas that are used for planting crops. Since peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is one of the most important sources of protein, an assessment of the potential shifts in peanut crop planting areas is critical. In this study, we evaluated the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of peanut crops in Australia. The current and potential future distributions of peanut crops were modeled using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) of CLIMatic indEX (CLIMEX). The future potential peanut crop distributions in Australia for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 were modeled by employing CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H Global Climate Models (GCMs) under SRES A2 climate change scenarios from CliMond 10’ database. The results indicated an increase in unsuitable areas for peanut cultivation in Australia throughout the projected years for the two GCMs. The CSIRO-Mk3.0 projection of unsuitable areas in 2100 was higher (i.e. 76% of the Australian continent) than the MIROC-H projection (i.e. 48% of the Australian continent). It was found that the projected increase in dry stress in the future could cause limitations in areas that are currently suitable for peanut crop cultivation. Looking into the future suitability of existing peanut cultivation areas, both GCMs agreed that some areas will become unsuitable, while they disagreed with the suitability of other areas. However, they agreed on the important point that only a small number of existing peanut cultivation areas would still be suitable in the future. Using CLIMEX, the present study has confirmed the effects of climate change on the shifts in areas suitable for peanut cultivation in the future, and thus may provide valuable information relevant to the long-term planning of peanut cultivation in Australia.

Ensemble species distribution modeling offers a robust approach to reduce the inherent uncertainties associated with single models, and ultimately providing more accurate predictions of regions with a heightened probability of occurrence. As Corythucha ciliata (Say) damages deciduous trees in diverse environments, including urban, suburban and forested regions, the objective of this study was to predict the potential distribution of C. ciliata by developing an ensemble model that comprehensively considered the biological and habitat traits of the pest using the CLIMEX and MaxEnt models. Although the ensemble model did not have significantly improved performance, compared with the single MaxEnt model, it was robust compared with distribution data. Our predictions suggest that C. ciliata will gradually expand its range from its current distribution in response to climate change, necessitating focused monitoring and pest‐control efforts in the predicted regions. This study not only evaluates pest distribution but also provides crucial insights into effective control strategies, which are adaptable to other pest management scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Chinese chives (Allium tuberosum Rottler ex Sprengel) are favored by consumers because of its delicious taste and unique fragrance. Bradysia odoriphaga (Diptera: Sciaridae) is a main pest that severely harms Chinese chives and other Liliaceae's production. Climate change may change the future distribution of B. odoriphaga in China. In this study, the CLIMEX was employed to project the potential distribution of B. odoriphaga in China, based on China's historical climate data (1987–2016) and forecast climate data (2021–2100). RESULTS: Bradysia odoriphaga distributed mainly between 19.8° N–48.3° N and 74.8° E–134.3° E, accounting for 73.25% of the total mainland area of China under historical climate conditions. Among them, the favorable and highly favorable habitats accounted for 30.64% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, B. odoriphaga will be distributed mainly between 19.8° N–49.3° N and 73.8° E–134.3° E, accounting for 84.89% of China's total mainland area. Among them, the favorable and highly favorable habitats will account for 35.23% of the total potential distribution, indicating an increase in the degree of fitness. Areas with relatively appropriate temperature and humidity will be more suitable for the survival of B. odoriphaga. Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest B. odoriphaga than humidity. Host plants (Liliaceae) availability also had impact on climate suitability in some regions. CONCLUSIONS: These projected potential distributions will provide supportive information for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks, and to reduce future economic and ecological losses. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Pine wilt disease (PWD) is a devastating plant disease caused by the pinewood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) that is transmitted by several beetle species in the genus, Monochamus. Once present, the disease is difficult to control. Prevention rather than control is regarded as an effective strategy for PWD management. Central to this prevention strategy is the ability to predict the potential distribution of the disease. Here, we employed an integrated MaxEnt and CLIMEX approach to model the potential distribution of PWD under various climate‐change scenarios. Our results indicate that rising temperatures and lower humidity under climate change will render some of the northern regions of China more suitable for the nematode and these beetles, causing the gradual northward movement of PWD. Furthermore, suitable habitats for three pine species, Pinus massoniana, P. taiwanensis and P. shurbergia, overlap with PWN and Monochamus, suggesting that these three species are potentially at high risk of PWD. Thus, PWD management should target the northern regions of China and the three pine species that are most susceptible to PWD.

Abstract The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges.

The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Our study evaluates the global risk of Aeolesthes sarta establishment using mechanistic and correlational niche models. The pest, known to affect various hardwood trees, poses a threat to international trade due to its quarantine status. The CLIMEX model, based on species-specific physiological thresholds, and MaxEnt model, using species occurrences and climatic data, project its potential distribution. Both models align well with the current distribution, predicting broader ranges in the central and southern hemispheres, excluding extreme northern regions. Future climate changes may expand its range, particularly in Europe and North America, where its host species are present. Temperature and precipitation are key factors influencing its distribution. These models offer valuable insights for policymakers and trade negotiators to make science-based decisions on pest management and trade agreements, aiding in monitoring potential pest introductions globally. A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species' distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Procambarus clarkii is a notorious invasive species that has led to ecological concerns owing to its high viability and rapid reproduction. South Korea, a country exposed to a high risk of introduction of invasive species due to active international trade, has suffered from recent massive invasions by invasive species, necessitating the evaluation of potential areas requiring intensive monitoring. In this study, we developed two different types of species distribution models, CLIMEX and random forest, for P. clarkii using occurrence records from the United States. The potential distribution in the United States was predicted along coastal lines and inland regions located below 40°N latitude The model was then applied to evaluate the potential distribution in South Korea, and an ensemble map was constructed to identify the most vulnerable domestic regions. According to both models, the domestic potential distribution was highest in most areas located at low altitudes. In the ensemble model, most of the low-altitude western regions, the eastern coast, and some southern inland regions were predicted to be suitable for the distribution of P. clarkii, and a similar distribution pattern was predicted when the model was projected into the future climate. Through this study, it is possible to secure basic data that can be used for the early monitoring of the introduction and subsequent distribution of P. clarkii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Ceratitis capitata is a globally destructive pest distributed mainly in the Mediterranean, African, and South American regions that causes significant economic losses. In this study, we adjusted the biological parameters of C. capitata and used the CLIMEX model to predict its potential geographical distribution under current and future conditions. Under the current climatic conditions, southern Asia, southern Oceania, southern North America, southern and central South America, and mainly southern and central Africa are highly favorable habitats. Owing to changes in temperature under future climatic conditions, the area of geographical distribution is projected to decrease and shift to higher latitudes. The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), which is native to tropical Africa, has invaded more than 100 countries and constitutes a risk to the citrus sector. Studying its potential geographical distribution (PGD) in the context of global climate change is important for prevention and control efforts worldwide. Therefore, we used the CLIMEX model to project and assess the risk of global invasion by C. capitata under current (1981–2010) and future (2040–2059) climates. In the prevailing climatic conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata was approximately 664.8 × 105 km2 and was concentrated in South America, southern Africa, southern North America, eastern Asia, and southern Europe. Under future climate conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata is projected to decrease to approximately 544.1 × 105 km2 and shift to higher latitudes. Cold stress was shown to affect distribution at high latitudes, and heat stress was the main factor affecting distribution under current and future climates. According to the predicted results, countries with highly suitable habitats for C. capitata that have not yet been invaded, such as China, Myanmar, and Vietnam, must strengthen quarantine measures to prevent the introduction of this pest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The solanum fruit fly Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an invasive alien insect that causes huge economic losses to pepper and other solanaceous plant industries. It is mainly distributed in South and Southeast Asia, SW Europe, Western USA, and in some African countries. However, the potential global geographical distribution of B. latifrons is unknown. Therefore, in this study, based on the current (1981–2010) and future (2040–2059) climatic scenarios determined using the CNRM-CM5, Access1.0, GFDL-ESM-2M, and NorESM1-M models, we used a species distribution model (CLIMEX 4.0) to project the potential global geographic distribution of B. latifrons to prevent further invasion and harm. In the current climate scenario, South America (1286.06 × 104 km2), Africa (1435.47 × 104 km2), and Oceania (410.66 × 104 km2) have the largest proportions of suitable land areas for B. latifrons colonization. Under all four future climate models, the global potential suitable area for Bactrocera latifrons is projected to decrease and shift towards higher latitudes. This study provides an important baseline upon which researchers, quarantine personnel, and governments can develop the appropriate control strategies against B. latifrons.

Camelina [Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz] is a Brassicaceae oilseed that is gaining interest worldwide as low‐maintenance crop for diverse biobased applications. One of the most important factors determining its productivity is climate. We conducted a bioclimate analysis in order to analyze the relationship between climatic factors and the productivity of spring‐type camelina seeded in the spring, and to identify regions of the world with potential for camelina in this scenario. Using the modelling tool CLIMEX, a bioclimatic model was developed for spring‐seeded spring‐type camelina to match distribution, reported seed yields and phenology records in North America. Distribution, yield, and phenology data from outside of North America were used as independent datasets for model validation and demonstrated that model projections agreed with published distribution records, reported spring‐seeded camelina yields, and closely predicted crop phenology in Europe, South America, and Asia. Sensitivity analysis, used to quantify the response of camelina to changes in precipitation and temperature, indicated that crop performance was more sensitive to moisture than temperature index parameters, suggesting that the yield potential of spring‐seeded camelina may be more strongly impacted by water‐limited conditions than by high temperatures. Incremental climate scenarios also revealed that spring‐seeded camelina production will exhibit yield shifts at the continental scale as temperature and precipitation deviate from current conditions. Yield data were compared with indices of climatic suitability to provide estimates of potential worldwide camelina productivity. This information was used to identify new areas where spring‐seeded camelina could be grown and areas that may permit expanded production, including eastern Europe, China, eastern Russia, Australia and New Zealand. Our model is the first to have taken a systematic approach to determine suitable regions for potential worldwide production of spring‐seeded camelina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) originated in South America and is a major pest of the economically critical solanaceous crops. It is devastating to tomatoes, attacking mainly the leaves, stems, flowers and fruits of tomato plants, and can cause up to 100% damage. T. absoluta invaded China in 2017 and expanded rapidly, severely impacting the tomato industry. To illustrate the detailed potential distribution of T. absoluta in China, we used CLIMEX and MaxEnt models to predict the potential distribution of this pest using historical and future climate data. CLIMEX predicts a wider potential distribution area for T. absoluta in China than MaxEnt, which suggests that most of China is suitable for its distribution, except for the Tarim Basin in southern Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia and northwestern Gansu. Both models accurately predicted the known distribution of T. absoluta in the provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi, and the predictions by both models suggest the total distribution range of T. absoluta in China is to increase slightly with future changes in climate temperature. These predictions will help understand the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of T. absoluta in China and thus provide a theoretical foundation for developing early monitoring, quarantine and control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to ongoing climate change and the spread of invasive pests, understanding and predicting climatic suitability for invasive insect species has shown growing demand from government and industry biosecurity managers. The invasive pest Bactericera cockerelli, (Šulc) (Hemiptera: Triozidae), commonly known as tomato potato psyllid (TPP), is native to North America and has recently invaded Australasia. TPP is also the vector of the bacterial plant pathogen Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CLso), which has caused severe economic losses for potato growers worldwide. We used the niche modelling software CLIMEX to predict the potential geographical distribution of TPP in Australasia and worldwide under current and future climatic scenarios. Our model prediction of the current climate conditions closely agrees with all the known distributions of TPP. In its native range (North America), TPP is predicted to expand its current geographical range in semi‐arid, temperate, and continental climates. Within Australia, along with the known occurrence of TPP in Western Australia, potential expansion into South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland is predicted. The predicted distribution closely matches all the known records with higher climatic suitability in New Zealand. Globally, the model projected that the pest‐free countries in Europe and East Asia are climatically more suitable for TPP. Predictions under the future climate change scenarios (A1B, CSIRO Mk 3.0 for 2090) showed a significant reduction of the known geographical range of TPP with a possible expansion towards higher latitudes. Areas in North America and Australia are projected to be less climatically suitable for the survival of TPP in future climates. However, our model suggested that Europe and New Zealand will remain unchanged or will become more favourable in the future. These CLIMEX projections for current and future climatic distribution provide valuable information for existing and future biosecurity preparedness and management programmes, which may prove helpful in risk assessments and identifying potential areas that are likely to be susceptible to a TPP invasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species’ distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.

The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), which is native to tropical Africa, has invaded more than 100 countries and constitutes a risk to the citrus sector. Studying its potential geographical distribution (PGD) in the context of global climate change is important for prevention and control efforts worldwide. Therefore, we used the CLIMEX model to project and assess the risk of global invasion by C. capitata under current (1981–2010) and future (2040–2059) climates. In the prevailing climatic conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata was approximately 664.8 × 105 km2 and was concentrated in South America, southern Africa, southern North America, eastern Asia, and southern Europe. Under future climate conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata is projected to decrease to approximately 544.1 × 105 km2 and shift to higher latitudes. Cold stress was shown to affect distribution at high latitudes, and heat stress was the main factor affecting distribution under current and future climates. According to the predicted results, countries with highly suitable habitats for C. capitata that have not yet been invaded, such as China, Myanmar, and Vietnam, must strengthen quarantine measures to prevent the introduction of this pest.

The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space–time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Understanding where species occur using species distribution models has become fundamental to ecology. Although much attention has been paid to invasive species, questions about climate change related range shifts of widespread insect pests remain unanswered. Here, we incorporated bioclimatic factors and host plant availability into CLIMEX models to predict distributions under future climate scenarios of major cereal pests of the Sitobion grain aphid complex (Sitobion avenae, S. miscanthi, and S. akebiae). Additionally, we incorporated the application of irrigation in our models to explore the relevance of a frequently used management practice that may interact with effects of climate change of the pest distributions. RESULTS: Our models predicted that the area potentially at high risk of outbreaks of the Sitobion grain aphid complex would increase from 41.3% to 53.3% of the global land mass. This expansion was underlined by regional shifts in both directions: expansion of risk areas in North America, Europe, most of Asia, and Oceania, and contraction of risk areas in South America, Africa, and Australia. In addition, we found that host plant availability limited the potential distribution of pests, while the application of irrigation expanded it. CONCLUSION: Our study provides insights into potential risk areas of insect pests and how climate, host plant availability, and irrigation affect the occurrence of the Sitobion grain aphid complex. Our results thereby support agricultural policy makers, farmers, and other stakeholders in their development and application of management practices aimed at maximizing crop yields and minimizing economic losses. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pierce's disease (PD) is a serious threat to grape production in Europe. This disease is caused by Xylella fastidiosa and is mediated by insect vectors, suggesting its high potential for spread and necessity for early monitoring. In this study, hence, potential distribution of Pierce's disease varied with climate change and was spatially evaluated in Europe using ensemble species distribution modeling. Two models of X. fastidiosa and three major insect vectors (Philaenus spumarius, Neophilaenus campestris, and Cicadella viridis) were developed using CLIMEX and MaxEnt. The consensus areas of the disease and insect vectors, along with host distribution, were evaluated using ensemble mapping to identify high-risk areas for the disease. Our predictions showed that the Mediterranean region would be the most vulnerable to Pierce's disease, and the high-risk area would increase three-fold due to climate change under the influence of N. campestris distribution. This study demonstrated a methodology for species distribution modeling specific to diseases and vectors while providing results that could be used for monitoring Pierce's disease by simultaneously considering the disease agent, vectors, and host distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pistacia vera is one of the important economic crops of Iran and the world. Climate is considered as the main limitation in plant expansion. In this regard, CLIMEX is one of the most advanced software for predicting the range of distribution of plant species. CLIMEX software was used to study the distribution of Pistacia vera for present and possible future climate condition. There are three groups of geographically restrictive variables for each species in this software: Growth indices, Stress indices, Limiting conditions. Potential distribution maps were prepared for the different continents for current and future climate situations. According to the results, Pistacia vera have the potential to be cultivated in countries such as Iran, parts of East China, Central Asia, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, parts of southwestern Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United States. According to Climax maps, parts of China, Turkey, the United States, and parts of Eastern Europe will be prone to Pistaciavera cultivation with climate change. In Iran, it was predicted that the climate change of cultivation and expansion of this crop will be limited in the southern parts of Khorasan and Kerman provinces and on the other hand, western and northwestern regions in Iran will be prone to cultivation and expansion of this crop. Due to the economic value of Pistacia vera, the cultivation of this plant is increasing in rural areas of Iran. The current research examines the climatic suitability of different rural areas of the country with the biological needs of Pistacia vera and identifies the areas prone to its cultivation in current conditions and climate change for farmers, experts and managers of the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aeolesthes sarta or Trirachys sarta is a polyphagous long-horned beetle that has caused severe damage to the Populus alba forests/plantations in its regions of origin. Climate change could accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive pest species, potentially causing ecological damage and economic losses. Furthermore, globalization and increased trade can inadvertently transport pests across borders into regions where they do not already occur. Hence, it is crucial to identify areas where the climate is most suitable for the establishment of A. sarta's and which areas of the world are suitable for the growth of P. alba under climate change scenarios. This study employed the CLIMEX model to estimate the potential global distribution of A. sarta and its correlation with its dominant host, P. alba, under current climatic conditions and potential future scenarios, namely the A1B and A2 climate change scenarios (CCSs). Under current climatic conditions, the model indicates that the establishment of a climatically suitable habitat for A. sarta extends beyond its current known range. The model estimated that, under the world's current climatic conditions, 41.06% of the world can provide suitable areas (EI > 0) for the survival of A. sarta. For P. alba, under the current climatic conditions, suitable regions for the growth of P. alba are present in all continents (excluding Antarctica); under the world's current climatic conditions, 53.52% of the world can provide suitable areas for the growth of P. alba (EI > 0). Climate change will significantly alter the number of suitable habitats for A. sarta development and P. alba growth globally. In future climatic conditions, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats (EI > 0) for A. sarta will slightly decrease to 40.14% (under A1B and A2 CCSs), while, for P. alba, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats will also marginally decrease to 50.39% (under A1B scenario), and this figure is estimated to drop to 48.41% (under A2 scenario) by the end century (2100). Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth under current climatic conditions; however, according to estimates of future climatic conditions, by the end century, only Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania will have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth. The range of highly suitable habitats is likely to increase in the northern hemisphere; however, this range is expected to shrink with regards to the southern hemisphere. The range contraction was higher under the A2 climate change scenario due to a higher warming trend than in the A1B scenario. Due to climate change, the range of A. sarta development shifted, as did the P. alba growth range, which, thanks to the suitable environmental conditions for the growth of P. alba, makes all those regions vulnerable to the introduction and development of A. sarta. Strict monitoring, prevention, and control measures at borders, airports, and seaports before the trade of P. alba and other suitable host species wood (logs/billets) are highly recommended to prevent the spread of A. sarta and ensure biodiversity security. It is expected that the A. sarta and P. alba climate models presented here will be useful for management purposes since both can be adapted to guide decisions about imparting resources to regions where the threat of pest invasion remains and away from regions where climate suitability is predicted to decrease in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western conifer seed bug (WCSB) Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heidemann) (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a pest insect that causes significant losses of coniferous trees worldwide. In this study, we sought to project the potential distribution of the WCSB based on dual CLIMEX modeling and random forest (RF) analysis to obtain basic data for WCSB monitoring strategies. The CLIMEX model, a semimechanistic niche model that responds to climate‐based environmental parameters, is a species distribution model that focuses on regional climatic suitability. Given that this model can be used to select areas that are likely to reflect the climatically favorable spread of species, which we initially used CLIMEX to evaluate the potential distribution of the WCSB. The RF algorithm was used to predict the potential occurrence of WCSB and to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for WCSB occurrence. Using the RF model, land cover was found to be the most important variable for classifying the presence/pseudo‐absence of the WCSB, with an accuracy of 77.1%. Climatic suitability for the WCSB was predicted to be 2.4‐fold higher in Southern Europe than in Western Europe, and the WCSB was predicted to occur primarily near coniferous forests. Given that CLIMEX and RF analyses yielded different prediction results, using the findings of both models may compensate for the shortcomings of these models when used independently. Consequently, to ensure greater prediction reliability, we believe that it would be beneficial to base predictions on the combined potential distribution data obtained using both modeling approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum Hellén (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) has been widely adopted as a biological control agent for Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) over the last 80 years. Earlier studies have found differential responses to temperature between the host and its parasitoid and demonstrated the multiple ways in which the parasitoid is more susceptible to elevated temperatures.Using data from experimental studies, the modelling package CLIMEX was used to investigate the suitability of current climates for the host and its parasitoid and the effects on their potential global geographical distributions. The study was then extended to investigate possible changes to these distributions that might result under different climate change scenarios by 2080. The models predict that the global distributions of both the host and parasitoid will be reduced. These changes will not be proportionate and many areas in tropical, sub‐tropical, and temperate regions that are currently suitable for D. semiclausum are predicted to become unsuitable for the parasitoid, whereas retaining suitability for P. xylostella. The seasonal dynamics of both the host and parasitoid are also predicted to be significantly reshaped under climate change.Analysis of associations between annual P. xylostella outbreaks and weather conditions in three provinces in China with field data collected between 1995 and 2017 indicated significant effects of temperature on P. xylostella outbreaks at the beginning of the peak season in warmer provinces where P. xylostella can overwinter; such associations were not found in the colder provinces where it is unable to survive harsh winters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of globalization and agriculture trade, as well as its own strong migratory capacity, fall armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda) (J.E. Smith) has invaded more than 70 countries, posing a serious threat to the production of major crops in these areas. FAW has now also been detected in Egypt in North Africa, putting Europe, which is separated from it only by the Mediterranean Sea, at high risk of invasion. Therefore, this study integrated multiple factors of insect source, host plant, and environment to provide a risk analysis of the potential trajectories and time periods of migration of FAW into Europe in 2016~2022. First, the CLIMEX model was used to predict the annual and seasonal suitable distribution of FAW. The HYSPLIT numerical trajectory model was then used to simulate the possibility of the FAW invasion of Europe through wind-driven dispersal. The results showed that the risk of FAW invasion between years was highly consistent (P<0.001). Coastal areas were most suitable for the expansion of the FAW, and Spain and Italy had the highest risk of invasion, with 39.08% and 32.20% of effective landing points respectively. Dynamic migration prediction based on spatio-temporal data can enable early warning of FAW, which is important for joint multinational pest management and crop protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae), commonly known as parthenium weed, is a highly invasive weed spreading rapidly from northern to southern parts of Pakistan. The persistence of parthenium weed in the hot and dry southern districts suggests that the weed can survive under more extreme conditions than previously thought. The development of a CLIMEX distribution model, which considered this increased tolerance to drier and warmer conditions, predicted that the weed could still spread to many other parts of Pakistan as well as to other regions of south Asia. This CLIMEX model satisfied the present distribution of parthenium weed within Pakistan. When an irrigation scenario was added to the CLIMEX program, more parts of the southern districts of Pakistan (Indus River basin) became suitable for parthenium weed growth, as well as the growth of its biological control agent, Zygogramma bicolorata Pallister. This expansion from the initially predicted range was due to irrigation producing extra moisture to support its establishment. In addition to the weed moving south in Pakistan due to irrigation, it will also move north due to temperature increases. The CLIMEX model indicated that there are many more areas within South Asia that are suitable for parthenium weed growth, both under the present and a future climate scenario. Most of the south-western and north-eastern parts of Afghanistan are suitable under the current climate, but more areas are likely to become suitable under climate change scenarios. Under climate change, the suitability of southern parts of Pakistan is likely to decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The global trade system is contributing to the spread of invasive species, like the raisin moth (Cadra figulilella), causing significant damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The potential distribution of the raisin moth may become even more widespread due to climate change. We newly assessed the potential distribution of the raisin moth globally, under current and future climate scenarios using a climate dataset projected with 23 climate models under two emissions scenarios, and using both CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche modeling tools. Our results indicated that the area of suitable distribution for the raisin moth could increase by 5.24 to 36.37% by the end of the century. Analysis of single predictor showed that excessive precipitation and a temperature range of 0–18 °C during the wettest quarter of the year may impact the species' establishment. The study highlights the need for using a combined modeling approach, such as CLIMEX and MaxEnt, in future research and the results could be used to inform international trade decisions and environmental risk assessments. Global trade facilitates the introduction of invasive species that can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The raisin moth (Cadra figulilella) is an invasive pest that poses a significant threat to fruits and dried foods. Climate change may exacerbate this threat by expanding moth's distribution to new areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche modeling tools to assess the potential global distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate change scenarios. Our models projected that the area of suitable distribution for the raisin moth could increase by up to 36.37% by the end of this century under high emission scenario. We also found that excessive precipitation decreased the probability of raisin moth establishment and that the optimum temperature range for the species during the wettest quarter of the year was 0–18 °C. These findings highlight the need for future research to utilize a combined modeling approach to predict the distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate conditions more accurately. Our results could be used for environmental risk assessments, as well as to inform international trade decisions and negotiations on phytosanitary measures with regards to this invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The western conifer seed bug (WCSB) Leptoglossus occidentalis (Heidemann) (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a pest insect that causes significant losses of coniferous trees worldwide. In this study, we sought to project the potential distribution of the WCSB based on dual CLIMEX modeling and random forest (RF) analysis to obtain basic data for WCSB monitoring strategies. The CLIMEX model, a semimechanistic niche model that responds to climate‐based environmental parameters, is a species distribution model that focuses on regional climatic suitability. Given that this model can be used to select areas that are likely to reflect the climatically favorable spread of species, which we initially used CLIMEX to evaluate the potential distribution of the WCSB. The RF algorithm was used to predict the potential occurrence of WCSB and to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for WCSB occurrence. Using the RF model, land cover was found to be the most important variable for classifying the presence/pseudo‐absence of the WCSB, with an accuracy of 77.1%. Climatic suitability for the WCSB was predicted to be 2.4‐fold higher in Southern Europe than in Western Europe, and the WCSB was predicted to occur primarily near coniferous forests. Given that CLIMEX and RF analyses yielded different prediction results, using the findings of both models may compensate for the shortcomings of these models when used independently. Consequently, to ensure greater prediction reliability, we believe that it would be beneficial to base predictions on the combined potential distribution data obtained using both modeling approaches.

The detrimental stresses of future climate change are well known and decisions are required to reduce their effects. Climate and disease stresses cause severe damage to plants and it is essential to understand how they will respond. Oil palm (OP) is an Fusarium important crop for many countries. The palm originated in Africa, where palm oil is produced in the largest amount within the continent by Nigeria. OP becomes stressed by climate change and wilt, a devastating disease of OP in Africa. Previous methods to determine the suitability of future climate on OP in continents and whole countries were applied to Nigeria, which is the first time an individual country has been assessed in this manner. Climate maps of Nigeria were divided equally into 16 regions from north to south and east to west to determine the future suitable climate for growing OP. CLIMEX and narrative modelling were used to determine suitability for growing OP and Fusarium wilt incidence for current time and 2050. Maps from published papers were employed directly thereby facilitating the procedure. A distinct latitudinal increasing trend from north to south in suitable climate was observed, which was unexpected. A decreasing longitudinal trend from west to east was also observed. These differences in suitable climates may allow refuges for OP in the future. The growth of OP in the south of Nigeria may be largely unaffected by climate change by 2050, unlike the north. The procedures allow policy decisions at state and national levels to be made from empirical data, which do not otherwise exist. States with low amounts of OP and where the climate deteriorates greatly, could usefully be abandoned. Other low palm oil producers, where the climate does not deteriorate greatly, could be encouraged to develop OP. Little requires to be done in the high producing states where the climate does not deteriorate. In all cases, the environmental impacts require thorough assessment. Climate change requires reduction as indicated in recent Conference of the Parties meetings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aeolesthes sarta (Solsky 1871) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a polyphagous longhorned beetle species that primarily damages broadleaved tree species. This pest is distributed in the western and northern regions of Pakistan, where it caused serious damage to Populus spp. plantations. However, the growth and dispersal patterns of insects and pests are changing due to climate change. Modeling the range expansion or contraction of A. sarta development regions in Pakistan was the goal of the current study, assuming climate change might influence the geographical distribution of A. sarta in Pakistan. Under historical and future climatic conditions, A. sarta distribution areas were estimated using the CLIMEX model. Three time periods, 2030 (early century), 2070 (late century), and 2100 (end century), were forecasted for habitat suitability using the two climate change scenarios (CCSs) A1B and A2. Under the historic climatic condition (HCC), A. sarta was distributed in most areas of Pakistan, and its optimum habitat accounted for 71.67% of its total potential distribution. In the early-century period, optimum habitat dropped to 50.60% and 52.22% under A1B and A2 scenarios in the suitable condition. In the late-century period, optimum habitat further reduced to 31.76% and 30.60% under A1B and A2 scenarios. Moreover, at the end-century period, severe range shrinkage was predicted in the optimum habitat (19.99% under both CSSs). The model predicted a shift in the suitable habitat areas for A. sarta to the west and north. Furthermore, most climatically suitable areas under historic conditions became unsuitable during the end-century period. These projected results will assist in identifying the impacts of global warming on the possible distribution of A. sarta, thereby offering vital information for developing early forecasting and pest-prevention techniques to prevent further loss of forest and woodland trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The apple buprestid, Agrilus mali Matsumura, that was widespread in north-eastern China, was accidently introduced to the wild apple forest ecosystem in mountainous areas of Xinjiang, China. This invasive beetle feeds on domesticated apples and many species of Malus and presents a serious threat to ancestral apple germplasm sources and apple production worldwide. Estimating the potential area at risk of colonization by A. mali is crucial for instigating appropriate preventative management strategies, especially under global warming. We developed a CLIMEX model of A. mali to project this pest's potential distribution under current and future climatic scenarios in 2100 using CSIRO-Mk 3.0 GCM running the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Under current climate, A. mali could potentially invade neighbouring central Asia and eventually the mid-latitude temperate zone, and some subtropical areas and Pampas Steppe in the Southern Hemisphere. This potential distribution encompasses wild apples species, the ancestral germplasm for domesticated apples. With global warming, the potential distribution shifts to higher latitudes, with the potential range expanding slightly, though the overall suitability could decline in both hemispheres. In 2100, the length of the growing season of this pest in the mid-latitude temperature zone could increase by 1–2 weeks, with higher growth rates in most sites compared with current climate in mid-latitudes, at least in China. Our work highlights the need for strategies to prevent the spread of this pest, managing the threats to wild apples in Tian Shan Mountain forests in Central Asia, and commercial apple production globally. We discuss practical management tactics to reduce the spread of this pest and mitigate its impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is an invasive species that rapidly enters into new areas, causing worldwide ecological concern. Early assessment of its potential habitat could indicate areas that we need to pay attention to in advance, to prevent its invasion; therefore, in this study we aimed to predict the potential spatial distribution of the Argentine ant and analyze the climatic characteristics of its occurrence sites. The CLIMEX model was used to predict the spatial distribution of this ant species, while the probability density function was employed to extract climatic preferences in places where their main habitats are located. High climatic suitability was predicted in the eastern United States, eastern South America, central Africa, eastern Australia, and a few regions in India and China, suggesting the high possibility of its invasion worldwide. The frequency of occurrence was highest at approximately 20°C monthly average maximum temperature, 8°C monthly average minimum temperature, and 10 mm monthly precipitation. In addition, the occurrence records of Argentine ants were mostly shown to be above sub‐zero temperatures. We expect that these results can be used to identify new areas exposed to the risk of Argentine ant invasion and for further application to establish monitoring strategies in advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spongy moth, Lymantria dispar, is a pest that damages various tree species throughout North America and Eurasia, has recently emerged in South Korea, threatening local forests and landscapes. The establishment of effective countermeasures against this species' outbreak requires predicting its potential distribution with climate change. In this study, we used species distribution models (CLIMEX and MaxEnt) to predict the potential distribution of the spongy moth and identify areas at risk of exposure to a sustained occurrence of the pest by constructing an ensemble map that simultaneously projected the outcomes of the two models. The results showed that the spongy moth could be distributed over the entire country under the current climate, but the number of suitable areas would decrease under a climate change scenario. This study is expected to provide basic data that can predict areas requiring intensive control and monitoring in advance with methodologically improved modeling technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The species distribution model (SDM) predicts the potential distribution of a species as a function of abiotic variables. CLIMEX is a SDM that mechanistically evaluates the climatic suitability of a species in a specific area. However, compared with other SDMs, the metrics for quantitatively evaluating CLIMEX performance are limited. Hence, this study quantitatively evaluated the performance of the CLIMEX models of six example species by applying the metrics used for machine-learning-based SDMs. The results showed that the performance of CLIMEX had a minimum true skill statistic (TSS) of 0.35 and a maximum of 0.78 depending on the species. Depending on the scale of the prediction area, number of occurrence coordinates, and classification threshold, CLIMEX performance can be evaluated by applying true skill statistics (TSS). Although this method is not perfect because of the characteristics of CLIMEX modeling, we expect it to be a useful option before conceiving the best method to evaluate mechanistic SDM.

Spodoptera eridania (Stoll), a polyphagous lepidopteran pest from the Americas, has recently invaded western and central Africa. Like its congeners, S. eridania has developed pesticide resistance. The rapid global spread and impacts of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) has raised concerns about whether S. eridania is set to do the same. Here we fit a CLIMEX niche model for S. eridania and apply a climate change scenario for 2050 to investigate the sensitivity of the pest threat. We find that S. eridania can potentially expand its range throughout the tropics and into the sub-tropics, threatening a range of important commercial and subsistence crops. An important feature of the pest threat posed by S. eridania is the extent of its ephemeral habitat during warmer months. Modelled climatic changes will mostly expand this species potential range poleward by around 200 km by 2050, indicating a moderate sensitivity. These areas of emerging potential expansion are mostly into subtropical climates, supporting diverse cropping systems, including at risk crops beans, groundnut, potato, soybeans, tomato and sweet potato. The potential distribution of S. eridania in the Amazon basin and the southern boundary of the Sahara Desert appear set to contract substantially due to increasing heat stress. While it may not be as invasive as some of its congeners, nor acquire pesticide resistance as readily, S. eridania does have some of these traits, and the current and emerging pest threat posed by this moth deserves closer attention, especially in relation to intercontinental phytosanitary measures to slow its spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to invasions by various pestiferous organisms. Bactrocera dorsalis is one of the invasive insect pests on fruits and vegetables in southern China, gradually spreading northward in past decades. To clarify its risk to damage to the northern fruits, the performance and fitness of the first and third reared generations of B. dorsalis were studied with two-sex life table on northern fruits (apples and peaches as dominant fruits) and southern fruit (oranges as appropriate host). Furthermore, the preference of host and oviposition selection were also conducted in laboratory experiments. Also, the CLIMEX model was used to comprehensively assess its potential risk in northern orchards. It was found that B. dorsalis had high fitness on peaches and good-performance on apples within first and third generations. This implies that peaches and apples are liable to become one of its most favorable hosts in northern orchards. The simulation based on CLIMEX model showed B. dorsalis had a high population growth potential in summer and autumn in some regions of northern China, where the life cycle can be completed and two simulated occurrence peaks last two to three months from early June to late July and from mid-late August to early September, long enough to cause serious harm. Projection for its distribution by 2080 indicated that the suitable area for B. dorsalis would further expand northward. Innate ability of B. dorsalis in flight, adaptability and wide range of hosts is conducive to its diffusion into new habitats, and external causes including harm concealment within fruits, frequent transportation were also discussed. Therefore, monitoring of B. dorsalis occurrence in northern orchards is necessary, combined with strict quarantine and control efforts, to avoid its further expansion and the consequent economic losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dasineura oxycoccana, the blueberry gall midge, has damaged domestic blueberry cultivation since its presence was confirmed in Korea. In this study, the domestic climatic suitability of D. oxycoccana was evaluated using the CLIMEX model, which comprehensively integrates the species biology and regional climate. In addition, we derived the risk posed to major areas of blueberry cultivation by considering the domestic potential distribution of D. oxycoccana based on climatic suitability D. oxycoccana showed the highest occurrence suitability on the southern coast under the current climate, and its population is expected to gradually increase inland due to climate change. Jeju and the southern coast were the major areas that were presently found to be at risk from D. oxycoccana; the area at risk from D. oxycoccana is expected to extend to southern Gyeonggi‐do and Ganwon‐do by 2040 and 2060, respectively. D. oxycoccana was predicted to occur throughout the country according to climate change, suggesting increase in its infestation in blueberry cultivation. Therefore, we expected this study provides precautionary evaluation for monitoring and controlling the pest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aeolesthes sarta or Trirachys sarta is a polyphagous long-horned beetle that has caused severe damage to the Populus alba forests/plantations in its regions of origin. Climate change could accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive pest species, potentially causing ecological damage and economic losses. Furthermore, globalization and increased trade can inadvertently transport pests across borders into regions where they do not already occur. Hence, it is crucial to identify areas where the climate is most suitable for the establishment of A. sarta’s and which areas of the world are suitable for the growth of P. alba under climate change scenarios. This study employed the CLIMEX model to estimate the potential global distribution of A. sarta and its correlation with its dominant host, P. alba, under current climatic conditions and potential future scenarios, namely the A1B and A2 climate change scenarios (CCSs). Under current climatic conditions, the model indicates that the establishment of a climatically suitable habitat for A. sarta extends beyond its current known range. The model estimated that, under the world’s current climatic conditions, 41.06% of the world can provide suitable areas (EI > 0) for the survival of A. sarta. For P. alba, under the current climatic conditions, suitable regions for the growth of P. alba are present in all continents (excluding Antarctica); under the world’s current climatic conditions, 53.52% of the world can provide suitable areas for the growth of P. alba (EI > 0). Climate change will significantly alter the number of suitable habitats for A. sarta development and P. alba growth globally. In future climatic conditions, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats (EI > 0) for A. sarta will slightly decrease to 40.14% (under A1B and A2 CCSs), while, for P. alba, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats will also marginally decrease to 50.39% (under A1B scenario), and this figure is estimated to drop to 48.41% (under A2 scenario) by the end century (2100). Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth under current climatic conditions; however, according to estimates of future climatic conditions, by the end century, only Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania will have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth. The range of highly suitable habitats is likely to increase in the northern hemisphere; however, this range is expected to shrink with regards to the southern hemisphere. The range contraction was higher under the A2 climate change scenario due to a higher warming trend than in the A1B scenario. Due to climate change, the range of A. sarta development shifted, as did the P. alba growth range, which, thanks to the suitable environmental conditions for the growth of P. alba, makes all those regions vulnerable to the introduction and development of A. sarta. Strict monitoring, prevention, and control measures at borders, airports, and seaports before the trade of P. alba and other suitable host species wood (logs/billets) are highly recommended to prevent the spread of A. sarta and ensure biodiversity security. It is expected that the A. sarta and P. alba climate models presented here will be useful for management purposes since both can be adapted to guide decisions about imparting resources to regions where the threat of pest invasion remains and away from regions where climate suitability is predicted to decrease in the future.

Climate change favors the establishment of new pests in Germany, which now find suitable habitats here due to the changed climate. Field locusts occur repeatedly as agricultural pests in southern European countries. Therefore, it is investigated whether the climate change-induced northward shift of warmer zones can create climatically suitable habitats for field locusts in Germany and whether agricultural areas can be affected by this. The CLIMEX software is used to model the possible distribution of the Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus (L., 1758)), the Moroccan locust (Dociostaurus maroccanus (Thunberg, 1815)) and the Migratory locust (Locusta migratoria (L., 1758)) for 20 locations in Germany in six scenarios. These result from the combination of the two observation periods 2021 - 2050 and 2071 - 2100 with the three climate projections RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Based on the study, C. italicus is expected to spread widely in Germany, whereas D. maroccanus and L. migratoria might form only small and local populations. Locust swarms can potentially threaten crop products on around 10 - 25% of the agricultural area in Germany at the sites considered, but are unlikely to occur, since the intensive use of grassland areas provides insufficient conditions for reproduction. The creation of lager fallow areas as part of environmental protection and climate adaptation measures could change this in the future. In addition, swarm formation in neighbouring countries and possible migration routes to Germany should be investigated. Furthermore, the development of concepts for prevention and intervention in the event of a locust invasion is recommended. Overall, however, a low risk potential of field locusts for German agriculture is currently assumed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) is an important grain storage pest in China that is distributed in almost every province and that has caused huge economic losses. In this study, we adjusted the biological parameters of the Indian grain borer and then used the CLIMEX model to predict the detailed potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China under current and future conditions. Under historical climatic conditions, the central, northeastern, and southern regions of China are highly suitable habitats for it. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. This study provides important information for controlling the further spread of the Indian corn borer in China. The Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is a notorious stored-grain pest that can be found in most parts of China. The corpses, excretions, and other secretions of P. interpunctella larvae cause serious grain pollution, seriously affecting the nutritional and economic value of stored grain in China. To elucidate the potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China, we used the CLIMEX 4.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1960–1990) and estimated future climate data (2030, 2050, and 2070). Under the historical climate situation, P. interpunctella was distributed in most areas of China, and its highly favorable habitats account for 48.14% of its total potential distribution. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. Under these scenarios, the area of this pest's highly favorable habitat will be reduced by 1.24 million km2, and its proportion will decrease to about 28.48%. These predicted outcomes will help to distinguish the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. interpunctella, thereby providing important information to design early forecasting and strategies to prevent pest harm to stored grain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urochloapanicoides P. Beauv. is considered one of the most harmful weeds in the United States and Australia. It is invasive in Pakistan, Mexico, and Brazil, but its occurrence is hardly reported in China and European countries. Species distribution models enable the measurement of the impact of climate change on plant growth, allowing for risk analysis, effective management, and invasion prevention. The objective of this study was to develop current and future climate models of suitable locations for U. panicoides and to determine the most influential climatic parameters. Occurrence data and biological information on U. panicoides were collected, and climatic parameters were used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) and to perform sensitivity analysis. The future projections for 2050, 2080, and 2100 were modeled under the A2 SRES scenario using the Global Climate Model, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS). The potential distribution of U. panicoides coincided with the data collected, and the reliability of the final model was demonstrated. The generated model identified regions where the occurrence was favorable, despite few records of the species. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive parameters of the model were related to temperature, humidity, and cold stress. Future projections predict reductions in climate suitability for U. panicoides in Brazil, Australia, India, and Africa, and an increase in suitability in Mexico, the United States, European countries, and China. The rise in suitability of China and Europe is attributed to predicted climate change, including reduction in cold stress. From the results obtained, preventive management strategies can be formulated against the spread of U. panicoides, avoiding economic and biodiversity losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entomopathogenic nematode (EPN) Heterorhabditis indica is a promising biocontrol candidate. Despite the acknowledged importance of EPN in pest control, no extensive data sets or maps have been developed on their distribution at global level. This study is the first attempt to generate Ecological Niche Models (ENM) for H. indica and its global Habitat Suitability Map (HSM) for H. indica to generate biogeographical information and predicts its global geographical range and help identify of prospective areas for its exploration and to help identify the suitable release areas for biocontrol purpose. The aim of the modeling exercise was to access the influence of temperature and soil moisture on the biogeographical patterns of H. indica at the global level. Global Heterorhabditis indica ecosystems. CLIMEX software was used to model the distribution of H. indica and assess the influence of environmental variable on its global distribution. In total, 162 records of H. indica occurrence from 27 countries over 25 years were combined to generate the known distribution data. The model was further fine‐tuned using the direct experimental observations of the H. indica's growth response to temperature and soil moisture. Model predicts that much of the tropics and subtropics have suitable climatic conditions for H. indica. It further predicts that H. indica distribution can extend into warmer temperate climates. Examination of the model output, predictions maps at a global level indicate that H. indica distribution may be limited by cold stress, heat stress, and dry stresses in different areas. However, cold stress appears to be the major limiting factor. This study highlighted an efficient way to construct HSM for EPN potentially useful in the search/release of target species in new locations. The study showed that H. indica which is known as warm adapted EPN generally found in tropics and subtropics can potentially establish itself in warmer temperate climates as well. The model can also be used to decide the release timing of EPN by adjusting with season for maximum growth. The model developed in this study clearly identified the value and potential of Habitat Suitability Map (HSM) in planning of future surveys and application of H. indica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Knowledge of where invasive species could potentially establish (potential distribution) is critical to prioritizing and addressing biological invasion threats. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Calonectriapseudonaviculata (Cps), an invasive fungal pathogen that blights boxwood, an iconic landscape plant, major evergreen nursery crop, and keystone forest species. We used climate data, presence records from Europe and western Asia, and multiple modeling approaches to predict the potential distribution of Cps at regional and global scales and to explore the roles of temperature and moisture in shaping its distribution. Model predictions were validated using an independent presence record dataset. A consensus map of model predictions revealed that Cps could potentially spread and establish well beyond its currently invaded range in Europe, western Asia, New Zealand, United States and Canada. These include a number of not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe, North America, and many regions of the world where boxwood is native. This knowledge informs policymakers and other stakeholders in these areas on the need for implementing a strict phytosanitary protocol for risk mitigation of accidental introduction, having an effective surveillance for early detection, and developing a recovery plan for the pathogen when accidental introductions occur. Boxwood blight caused by Cps is an emerging disease that has had devastating impacts on Buxus spp. in the horticultural sector, landscapes, and native ecosystems. In this study, we produced a process-based climatic suitability model in the CLIMEX program and combined outputs of four different correlative modeling algorithms to generate an ensemble correlative model. All models were fit and validated using a presence record dataset comprised of Cps detections across its entire known invaded range. Evaluations of model performance provided validation of good model fit for all models. A consensus map of CLIMEX and ensemble correlative model predictions indicated that not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe and in the southeastern, midwestern, and Pacific coast regions of North America are climatically suitable for Cps establishment. Most regions of the world where Buxus and its congeners are native are also at risk of establishment. These findings provide the first insights into Cps global invasion threat, suggesting that this invasive pathogen has the potential to significantly expand its range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The citrus longhorned beetle (CLB) (Anoplophora chinensis) is an important quarantine pest of main Citrus crops. Its potential distribution and invasion under climate change scenarios have important economic implications for many countries. We used the ensemble maps from both the CLIMEX and MaxEnt models to obtain CLB's potential distribution in climate‐suitable regions under historical and future climate conditions. Global broadleaved forest cover was overlaid with CLB's ensemble distributions to further assess the effects of host range. The ensemble models' projected climate‐suitable regions by 2040–2060 and 2060–2070 under different emission scenarios were used to analyze range shifts. Our results indicate that projected climate‐suitable regions of the CLIMEX are much wider than that of the MaxEnt, but both of them would lose areas with climate change. The global ensemble distributions of CLB concentrated in eastern Asia, central and western Europe and eastern North America, and would shift northward in the future time. Broadleaved forests would cover most of the projected climate‐suitable regions, which provide essential hosts for CLB's establishment. The ensemble predictive results from the correlative model and mechanistic model highlight the necessity of increasing control, monitoring and quarantine efforts on the pest in the threatened areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Der Klimawandel begünstigt die Ansiedlung neuer Schadorganismen in Deutschland, die hier nun geeignete Lebensräume finden. Feldheuschrecken treten in südeuropäischen Ländern immer wieder als Landwirtschaftsschädlinge auf. Es wird daher untersucht, ob durch die klimawandelbedingte Nordverschiebung wärmerer Zonen klimatisch geeignete Lebensräume für Feldheuschrecken in Deutschland entstehen und landwirtschaftlich genutzte Flächen dadurch betroffen sein können. Mit der Software CLIMEX wird die mögliche Verbreitung der Italienischen Schönschrecke (Calliptamus italicus (L., 1758)), der Marokkanischen Wanderheuschrecke (Dociostaurus maroccanus (Thunberg, 1815)) und der Europäischen Wanderheuschrecke (Locusta migratoria (L., 1758)) für 20 Standorte in Deutschland in sechs Szenarien modelliert. Diese Szenarien werden durch die Kombination der beiden Betrachtungszeiträume 2021–2050 und 2071–2100 mit den drei Klimaprojektionen RCP2.6, RCP4.5 und RCP8.5 definiert. Aufgrund der Untersuchung ist zu erwarten, dass C. italicus sich in Deutschland stark verbreiten wird, während D. maroccanus und L. migratoria nur kleine und lokale Populationen ausbilden könnten. Heuschreckenschwärme können an den betrachteten Standorten potentiell pflanzliche Erzeugnisse auf etwa 10 – 25 % der landwirtschaftlichen Fläche in Deutschland bedrohen, ihr Auftreten wird allerdings als unwahrscheinlich eingeschätzt, da die intensive Nutzung von Grünlandflächen bisher nur unzureichende Vermehrungsbedingungen bietet. Die Schaffung größerer Brachflächen im Rahmen von Umweltschutz- und Klimaanpassungsmaßnahmen könnte dies zukünftig ändern. Zusätzlich sollten Schwarmbildungen im Ausland und mögliche Migrationsrouten nach Deutschland untersucht werden. Weiterhin wird die Entwicklung von Konzepten zur Prävention und Intervention für den Fall einer Heuschreckeninvasion empfohlen. Insgesamt ist jedoch aktuell von einem geringen Gefahrenpotential von Feldheuschrecken für die deutsche Landwirtschaft auszugehen.

Abstract Entomopathogenic nematode (EPN) Heterorhabditis indica is a promising biocontrol candidate. Despite the acknowledged importance of EPN in pest control, no extensive data sets or maps have been developed on their distribution at global level. This study is the first attempt to generate Ecological Niche Models (ENM) for H. indica and its global Habitat Suitability Map (HSM) for H. indica to generate biogeographical information and predicts its global geographical range and help identify of prospective areas for its exploration and to help identify the suitable release areas for biocontrol purpose. The aim of the modeling exercise was to access the influence of temperature and soil moisture on the biogeographical patterns of H. indica at the global level. Global Heterorhabditis indica ecosystems. CLIMEX software was used to model the distribution of H. indica and assess the influence of environmental variable on its global distribution. In total, 162 records of H. indica occurrence from 27 countries over 25 years were combined to generate the known distribution data. The model was further fine‐tuned using the direct experimental observations of the H. indica's growth response to temperature and soil moisture. Model predicts that much of the tropics and subtropics have suitable climatic conditions for H. indica. It further predicts that H. indica distribution can extend into warmer temperate climates. Examination of the model output, predictions maps at a global level indicate that H. indica distribution may be limited by cold stress, heat stress, and dry stresses in different areas. However, cold stress appears to be the major limiting factor. This study highlighted an efficient way to construct HSM for EPN potentially useful in the search/release of target species in new locations. The study showed that H. indica which is known as warm adapted EPN generally found in tropics and subtropics can potentially establish itself in warmer temperate climates as well. The model can also be used to decide the release timing of EPN by adjusting with season for maximum growth. The model developed in this study clearly identified the value and potential of Habitat Suitability Map (HSM) in planning of future surveys and application of H. indica.

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae), commonly known as parthenium weed, is a highly invasive weed spreading rapidly from northern to southern parts of Pakistan. The persistence of parthenium weed in the hot and dry southern districts suggests that the weed can survive under more extreme conditions than previously thought. The development of a CLIMEX distribution model, which considered this increased tolerance to drier and warmer conditions, predicted that the weed could still spread to many other parts of Pakistan as well as to other regions of south Asia. This CLIMEX model satisfied the present distribution of parthenium weed within Pakistan. When an irrigation scenario was added to the CLIMEX program, more parts of the southern districts of Pakistan (Indus River basin) became suitable for parthenium weed growth, as well as the growth of its biological control agent, Zygogramma bicolorata Pallister. This expansion from the initially predicted range was due to irrigation producing extra moisture to support its establishment. In addition to the weed moving south in Pakistan due to irrigation, it will also move north due to temperature increases. The CLIMEX model indicated that there are many more areas within South Asia that are suitable for parthenium weed growth, both under the present and a future climate scenario. Most of the south-western and north-eastern parts of Afghanistan are suitable under the current climate, but more areas are likely to become suitable under climate change scenarios. Under climate change, the suitability of southern parts of Pakistan is likely to decrease.