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Sanjiangyuan is an extremely important biodiversity-conservation area with notable worldwide ecological significance. However, due to global climate change and increased human activities, the natural environment in this region has undergone major alterations. In this work, we used the InVEST model to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of habitat quality and habitat degradation in the Sanjiangyuan region from 2000 to 2020. CA-Markov model was used to predict the land use changes under "natural development" (ND) and "ecological protection" (EP) scenarios from 2025 to 2050, and a comparative analysis of land use and habitat-quality changes was made in combination with the results of ecological zoning planning. We found that changes in human use land and bare land directly affect changes in habitat quality in Sanjiangyuan and are a major threat to habitat quality. Using the human-footprint index, Sanjiangyuan was divided into key protected areas, key restoration areas, and moderately developed areas. We compared the changes in habitat quality under two scenarios and discovered that under the EP scenario, the region of high habitat quality expanded, indicating that the EP scenario is beneficial for the sustainable development and conservation of biodiversity in Sanjiangyuan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the impact of large-scale human activities on carbon storage through land use changes is of growing interest in terrestrial ecosystem assessments. The Huaihe River Basin, a vital Chinese grain production area, has undergone marked land use changes amid socio-economic acceleration. Evaluating the impacts of land use change on carbon storage and future carbon sequestration is imperative for regional ecosystem sustainability and Chinese food security, simultaneously, furnishing data support to regional land use planning and decision-making processes. Nonetheless, the mechanisms linking land use changes to carbon storage and the future carbon reservoir responses remain unclear. We utilized a multi-source dataset and representative scenarios, integrating PLUS, InVEST models, and Geodetector to assess land use change impacts on carbon storage in the Huaihe River Basin (2000–2030). The data indicates the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased by 28,344.69 km2, construction land increased by 26,914.56 km2, and other land types changed little. (2) Land use change resulted a carbon loss of 1.17 × 108 t, primarily due to the expansion of construction land. (3) All four simulation scenarios exhibited diminished carbon storage relative to 2020, with the economic development scenario recording the lowest at 4.98 × 109 t and the ecological protection scenario the highest at 5.06 × 109 t. (4) Elevation predominantly drives carbon storage changes, with its interaction with NPP having the greatest impact. The factors synergistically enhance their explanatory power. The research provides a scientific basis for strategies aimed at augmenting regional carbon sequestration and refining low-carbon land management, safeguarding ecosystem stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the land use/cover change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario 1), ecological development priority (Scenario 2), and cropland development priority (Scenario 3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low-stress (SSP119), medium-stress (SSP245), and high-stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) by 2030, the water yield of Scenario 1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing Scenario 2 by 1.60 × 108 m3; (4) climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 54.95 × 108 m3 higher water yield than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water yield (WY) service is the cornerstone of ecosystem functionality. Predicting and assessing the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on WY is imperative for a nation's food security, regional economic development, and ecological environmental protection. This study aimed to evaluate the water yield (WY) service in Henan Province, China, using high-resolution (30 m) remote sensing land use monitoring data from four study years: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. It also utilized the PLUS model to predict the characteristics of LULC evolution and the future trends of WY service under four different development scenarios (for 2030 and 2050). The study's results indicated the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the Henan Province's WY first increased and then decreased, ranging from 398.56 × 108 m3 to 482.95 × 108 m3. The southern and southeastern parts of Henan Province were high-value WY areas, while most of its other regions were deemed low-value WY areas. (2) The different land use types were ranked in terms of their WY capacity, from strongest to weakest, as follows: unused land, cultivated land, grassland, construction land, woodland, and water. (3) The four abovementioned scenarios were ranked, from highest to lowest, based on the Henan's total WY (in 2050) in each of them: high-quality development scenario (HDS), business-as-usual scenario (BAU), cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (ES). This study contributes to the advancement of ecosystem services research. Its results can provide scientific support for water resource management, sustainable regional development, and comprehensive land-use planning in Henan Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of rising the seas, relying solely on seawalls and other reinforced coastlines is unsustainable due to the high costs associated with their construction and upkeep and unforeseen effects on habitats. Restoring and conserving coastal habitats can be more affordable, long-term solutions for protecting the coast. Yet, basic knowledge about where, how, and for whom habitats decrease the risk of coastal disasters is typically lacking from decision-makers. This study investigates how climate change may affect coastal areas and how natural coastal habitats may help protect them. We studied two small tropical islands, Bintan and Seribu Islands, Indonesia. The research applied the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model to calculate the hazard index. To assess the effect on the vulnerable population, a grid system for the coastal population was created and overlaid with the hazard index. The comprehensive analysis indicates that if the coastal habitat is lost in the future, Bintan and Seribu Islands will face a severe threat from rising sea levels, with 96% and 63% of the inhabitants being highly exposed to climate hazards. Furthermore, the model shows that preserving natural coastal habitats by 2040 could help protect approximately 104 and 17 km of coastline areas in Bintan and Seribu Islands, respectively. Ecosystems offer safeguards to certain thinly inhabited, distant coastal villages, certain of those with a large, vulnerable population. Thus, this study highlights that natural coastal habitat is essential in climate change adaptation. Enhancing and safeguarding these natural habitats is crucial for mitigating climate-related hazards and ensuring community resilience.Article Highlight: The first semi-quantitative assessment in Indonesia showcasing the role of natural capital in reducing the risk of climate hazards in the small islands was conducted. Coastal habitats protect roughly one-third of the shoreline length in both study sites. The coastal habitat could save about one-third and two-thirds of the most vulnerable communities along the Bintan and Seribu Islands coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global climate change and irrational human activities, regional water resource conflicts are becoming more and more pronounced. The availability of water resource in watersheds can be indicated by the water yield. Exploring the factors that influence the water yield is crucial in responding to climate change and protecting water resource. Previous research on the factors influencing the water yield has frequently adopted a macro-level perspective, which has failed to reflect the influencing mechanisms of changes at the local scale adequately. Therefore, this study proposes a novel framework for integrally evaluating the impacts of climate change and human activities on water yield services from both local and global perspectives. Taking Ganzhou City, the source of the Ganjiang River, as an example, the results show the following: (1) Ganzhou City had the largest water yield of 1307.29 mm in 2016, and the lowest was only 375.32 mm in 2011. The spatial distribution pattern was mainly affected by the surface environment, and the high-value water yield regions in the study area were predominantly located in urban areas with flat terrain. (2) At the local scale, regions where human activities contribute more than 80% accounted for 25% of the area. In comparison, the impact of climate change accounted for 0.95%. The contribution rate of human activities to the water yield in Ganzhou City was significantly greater than that of climate change. (3) At the global scale, the simulation results of four scenarios show that climate change contributed (>98%) to the water yield, which is significantly higher than human activities (<2%). This study puts forward pioneering views on the research of water yield driving forces and provides a valuable theoretical basis for water resource protection and ecological environment construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use/land cover change has a significant indicative effect on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. We selected Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration as the research object, coupled FLUS and InVEST models to explore the changes in land use and carbon storage in the region from 2010 to 2020, and predicted their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics under three scenarios in 2035: natural development (S1), ecological development priority (S2) and urban development priority (S3). Spatial autocorrelation was used to analyze the spatial distribution of carbon storage. The results revealed a rapid urban expansion encroaching on cultivated land and forest from 2010 to 2020, resulting in a total urban area of 1957.50 km2 by 2020. Carbon storage experienced a total loss of 6.86 × 106 t, primarily between 2010 and 2015. The InVEST model indicated a spatial distribution in a pattern of "low in the middle and high around", with areas of low carbon storage showing large-scale faceted aggregate distribution by 2035. Under different regional development scenarios, the S3 exhibited the highest carbon storage loss, reaching 150.93 × 106 t. The S1 experienced a decline of 136.30 × 106 t, while the S2 only experienced a reduction of 24.26 × 106 t. The primary driving factor of carbon storage reduction is the conversion of forest and cultivated land into urban areas. It is recommended that the implementation of regional ecological protection policies and the optimization of land use structures effectively minimize the loss of carbon storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems serves as a crucial metric for assessing ecosystem health and their resilience to climate change. By evaluating the effects of land use alterations on this storage, carbon management strategies can be improved, thereby promoting carbon reduction and sequestration. While county-level cities are pivotal to ecological conservation and high-quality development, they often face developmental challenges. Striking a balance between economic growth and meeting peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality objectives is particularly challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent need to bolster research into carbon storage management. The study focuses on Jianli City, employing the InVEST model and land use data to examine the response patterns of land use changes and terrestrial system carbon storage from 2000 to 2020. Using the PLUS model, the study simulated the land use and carbon storage in Jianli City for the year 2035 under three scenarios: Natural Development scenario, Urban Expansion scenario, and Ecology and food security scenario. Our findings indicate the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, significant shifts in land use were observed in Jianli City. These changes predominantly manifested as the interchange between Cropland and Water areas and the enlargement of impervious surfaces, leading to a decrease of 691,790.27 Mg in carbon storage. (2) Under the proposed scenarios—Natural Development scenario, Urban Expansion scenario, and Ecology and food security scenario—the estimated carbon storage capacities in Jianli City were 39.95 Tg, 39.90 Tg, and 40.14 Tg, respectively. When compared with the 2020 data, all these estimates showed an increase. In essence, our study offers insights into optimizing land use structures from a carbon storage standpoint to ensure stability in Jianli's carbon storage levels while mitigating the risks associated with carbon fixation. This has profound implications for the harmonious evolution of regional eco-economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization-induced land use transitions (LUTs) result in a decline in ecosystem services, which has implications for regional ecological security. In order to explore the relationship between ecosystem services and land use transition, this paper utilizes the InVEST model, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, to examine the impact of land use transition on ecosystem services in the Dongting Lake area (DLA). The results showed that 1) with the change in urbanization development, the average values of land use transition intensity (LUI) in 2000, 2010, and 2020 are 237.99, 235.82, and 238.92, respectively. Land use dynamics (LUD) show a tendency to increase and then decrease, with average values of 5.58 and 5.62 for the periods 2000-2010 and 2010-2020, respectively, and the transformation of land use shows obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity. 2) Habitat quality and carbon sequestration showed a downward trend. In contrast, food supply followed an upward trend; soil conservation (SC) and water yield (WY) services initially increased and decreased later. The overall spatial changes in habitat quality and carbon sequestration appear to be insignificant. Food supply shows significant differences in the plains compared to other areas, while soil conservation and water yield service show significant changes in places other than the DLA. 3) From 2000 to 2020, land use transition dynamics, population density, GDP density, night lighting, and transition intensity had mainly negative effects on ecosystem services. Only the Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) showed a positive effect on ecosystem services. The results of the research will provide valuable references for the development and implementation of spatial ecological restoration planning and land use policies in the national territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatiotemporal variation and drivers of ecosystem services is fundamental to optimal management and sustainable development of World Heritage (WH) sites. Although WH sites face multiple natural and anthropogenic threats, our understanding of their ecosystem services is still limited, especially for karst WH sites. In this study, we assessed habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), water conservation (WC), and the combined ecosystem service (CES) of karst and non-karst WH sites in Southwest China from 2000 to 2020 using the InVEST model. We also assessed trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services using the spatial overlay method, and identified driving factors of variation in ecosystem services using geographical detector and structural equation models. The results showed that ecosystem services of the WH sites exhibited high spatiotemporal variation. In particular, there were higher values in the property zone than in the buffer zone, and an increasing trend in SR but a decreasing trend in HQ and CES over time. Compared to non-karst sites, karst WH sites had significantly lower values of HQ, CS, SR, and CES, but higher spatial heterogeneity in CS, WC, and CES. Weak trade-offs among ecosystem services dominated the WH sites, with the proportion of weak synergies increasing over time. Compared to non-karst sites, karst WH sites had a significantly lower proportion of strong synergies and a significantly higher proportion of weak synergies. The provision of ecosystem services was primarily influenced by natural factors (e.g., landscape division index and normalized difference vegetation index), followed by anthropogenic factors (e.g., distance from road and population density). Overall, these findings may have important implications for decision-making aimed at protecting the outstanding universal value, authenticity, and integrity of WH with different attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment of the ecological protection redline (EPR) in China plays a crucial role in safeguarding key ecological functional areas and sustaining biodiversity. Besides their significance, the impact of these redlines on regional carbon sequestration remains unclear due to current inconsistencies in their implementation and adjustment. This paper conducts a thorough analysis of the evolution of two EPR versions on Hainan Island and employs the InVEST model to assess the effects of two EPR areas on regional carbon storage between 2000 and 2020. Additionally, a spatial autoregressive model is integrated to explore the socioeconomic and environmental driving mechanisms behind changes in regional carbon storage, thereby revealing complex interactions between ecological protection policy adjustments and ecosystem services of carbon storage. Key findings include: (1) The 2022 EPR area has improved the management of ecological protection boundaries, permanent cultivated land, and urban development boundaries, outperforming the 2016 version, particularly in control of construction land and water resource management. (2) The EPR2022 exhibits higher carbon storage per area, indicating a more effective zoning system. The increase in carbon storage is primarily observed in transitions from cultivated land to forest, grassland to forest, and water bodies to grassland. (3) Elevation exhibits a relatively strong positive correlation with carbon storage within the EPRs, with high-altitude areas typically encompassing the core zones of tropical rainforest national parks that possess diverse vegetation and stable ecosystems, conducive to maintaining or increasing carbon storage. Evaluating the efficacy of the EPR in enhancing regional carbon storage is critical for refining management strategies and achieving carbon neutrality goals. Future strategies should incorporate a comprehensive analysis of ecosystem services of carbon storage into the EPR framework to enhance multiple ecosystem functions, thereby establishing a resilient and functionally stable ecological landscape. This research introduces an insightful estimation method crucial for developing more effective ecological protection policies and provides valuable insights for managing ecological protection areas globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and coastal urbanization have significantly impacted the health and carbon storage of coastal zone ecosystems. Investigating the spatial and temporal variations in coastal carbon storage is crucial for developing effective strategies for land management and ecological protection. Current methods for evaluating carbon storage are hindered by insufficient accuracy and data acquisition challenges, necessitating solutions to enhance both reliability and precision. This study aims to assess the variations in carbon storage and annual carbon sequestration in the Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone from 1990 to 2020 and to identify the driving factors by integrating the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) models with remote sensing data and geographic detector methods. The findings suggest that Jiaozhou Bay has experienced a substantial decrease in carbon storage, declining by 17.4% from 1990 to 2020, and annual carbon sequestration, decreasing by 35.5% from 1990 to 2016, but has stabilized recently. Vegetation cover and water bodies play critical roles in regional carbon storage. Furthermore, the dynamics of carbon storage and land use patterns are significantly influenced by socioeconomic factors, including GDP and population density. A comparison of the InVEST and CASA models demonstrates consistency in their carbon storage and annual carbon sequestration assessments. Combining these models in future assessments can enhance the scientific rigor and accuracy of the research, providing more reliable evidence for ecosystem management and policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the "dual carbon" issue has become a major focus of the international community. Changes in land use driven by anthropogenic activities have a profound impact on ecosystem structure and carbon cycling. This study quantitatively assesses the spatiotemporal changes in cropland occupation and supplementation in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2020 using the InVEST model, analyzing the spatial clustering of carbon storage changes caused by variations in cropland area. The PLUS model was employed to simulate land-use patterns and the spatial distribution of carbon storage in four future development scenarios. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the net change rate of cropland area in the Pearl River Delta was −0.81%, with a decrease of 16.49 km2 in cropland area, primarily converted to built-up land and forest land. (2) Carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta exhibited a pattern of lower values in the center and higher values in the periphery. The terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta was 534.62 × 106 t in 2000, 518.60 × 106 t in 2010, and 512.57 × 106 t in 2020, showing an overall decreasing trend. The conversion of cropland and forest land was the main reason for the decline in total regional carbon storage. (3) The area of carbon sequestration lost due to cropland occupation was significantly greater than the area of carbon loss compensated by new cropland, indicating an imbalance in the quality of cropland occupation and supplementation as a crucial factor contributing to regional carbon loss. (4) Under the ecological priority scenario, the expansion of built-up land and the reduction in ecological land such as cropland and forest land were effectively controlled, resulting in the minimal loss of carbon storage. The soil organic carbon pool of cropland is the most active carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and has a significant impact on carbon storage. Clarifying the relationship between "cropland protection measures–land use changes–ecosystem carbon storage" will improve cropland protection policies, provide references for regional carbon sequestration enhancement, and support sustainable socio-economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the reorganization of rural land-use space exhibits a dynamic process of expansion and shrinkage. Taking the Wuhan Metropolitan Area as an example, this study used the InVEST model to quantitatively assess changes in rural built-up land between 1995 and 2020 and its impact on regional carbon storage. Combined with the PLUS model, further simulations were carried out to predict the heterogeneous mechanisms of shrinkage and expansion of rural habitable space under three scenarios in 2030. The results indicate that the area of rural built-up land in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area showed an overall increasing trend, with shrinkage mainly concentrated in the Wuhan-Ezhou border, Tianmen, and southern Xiantao, while expansion displayed a decentralized point distribution. The PLUS model predicts that, in the scenario of rural built-up land expansion, a significant amount of cropland is encroached upon. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of rural habitat changes on the carbon cycle. Future land management and planning should pay more attention to maintaining ecosystem services and considering the environmental effects of changes in rural built-up land layout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment and prediction analyses of the ecological environmental quality of river basins are pivotal to realize ecological protection and high-quality coordinated development. Methods: The PLUS and InVEST models were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land-use in the Fen River Basin and simulate the spatial pattern of land-use under natural development (ND), ecological protection (EC), and economic development (ED) scenarios in 2030, as well as evaluate habitat quality (HQ) and its spatiotemporal variation characteristics from 2000 to 2030. From 2000 to 2020, the Fen River Basin consisted primarily of cultivated land, followed by forests, and then unused land. Habitat quality in the Fen River Basin showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2020. Between 2010 and 2020, the rate of decline decreased, and by 2030, the HQ in the EC scenario exhibited improvement compared to 2020. However, there was a reduction in HQ in the natural development and economic development scenarios and there was obvious heterogeneity in spatial distribution, showing the characteristics of "low middle and high edge". The cultivated land was converted into forests, construction land, and grasslands, and the conversion of construction land and forests to cultivated land dominated the changes in HQ in the Fen River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water yield is a critical component of hydrological ecosystem services, influenced by both natural environments and human activities. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are particularly pivotal in causing water yield variations at the basin level, particularly for the ecologically fragile Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) in southern Jiangxi province, China. Over the last 33 years, the GRB has undergone substantial LULC changes that have significantly affected its water yield. Initially, this study assessed water yield from 1990 to 2022 using the InVEST model, then predicted future LULC scenarios using the PLUS model, including natural development (ND), cropland protection (CP), ecological protection (EP), and urban development (UD). The Geodetector model was then employed to analyze the influence of various factors on water yield changes. Key findings include the following: (1) Significant landscape changes were observed, including increases in impervious surfaces, cropland, and water areas, accompanied by substantial reductions in forest and other natural lands. The most pronounced decline occurred in forested regions. (2) The total water yield decreased by 0.44 × 1010 m3 over the study period, exhibiting fluctuations until 2016 and stabilizing afterward. Water yield was generally higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest, primarily influenced by actual evapotranspiration, LULC, and precipitation. (3) The impact of LULC changes on water yield varied by scenario, with the scenarios ranked from most to least impactful as follows: UD, ND, CP, EP. This variation is mainly due to the different rates of evapotranspiration and infiltration associated with land cover. These insights are crucial for guiding policymakers in developing effective LULC strategies that promote ecological restoration and sustainable water management in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecosystem service (ES) is essential for residents' health and well-being. The ecosystem service value (ESV) is one of the measures to scientifically quantify the wealth of ESs. However, climate and human activities intensely affect the sustainability of ESs. Therefore, knowing the relative and combined effects of climate and human activities on ESs and ESV can be crucial. This study selects the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as the study area to detect how climate and human activities affected the ES and ESV changes during 2001–2020, including net primary productivity, water yield, soil retention, water purification, and integrated ESV. The results show that the southern YREB has relatively higher ESs than the northern YREB, except for the NDR-P, which is mainly located in the urban agglomeration area. The general ranking for the ESV of different provinces in the YREB is sequenced from higher to lower as Sichuan, Yunnan, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Hubei, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, Chongqing, and Shanghai. Specifically, the ESV of Sichuan is the highest at about 972 billion yuan (133.57 billion USD), while the lowest ESV has been discovered in Shanghai at approximately 0.25 billion yuan (0.03 billion USD). It can be noticed that the regions where climate is the major influencing factor for ESs are concentrated upstream of the YREB, and human activities mainly influence ESs in highly urbanized areas. Furthermore, climate and human activities account for the highest proportion (86%) of synergistic effects for ESV in Yunnan. In contrast, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai accounted for the lowest proportions, at 18%, 26%, and 31%, respectively. This study may provide crucial insights into how ESs and ESV in the YREB have changed during the study period to inform policymakers, drawing more attention to the inhibitory and synergistic effects arising from the interaction between climate and human activities, to make more reliable decisions on adapting to climate crises in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Heilongjiang Province is the region in China with the highest grain production and the most significant ecological security barrier in the northern part of the country. In recent years, the growing necessity for water in human production and life has intensified water resource conflicts. In order to identify a solution to this situation, the InVEST model's water yield module is employed to simulate the water yield in Heilongjiang Province in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The water yield in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020 is evaluated, and the scenario simulation method is employed to investigate the impact of climate change and land use type changes on water yield. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the annual precipitation in Heilongjiang Province increased from 490 mm in 2000 to 764 mm in 2020. The spatial distribution shows a west–high and east–low pattern, with Jixi City having the highest average annual precipitation and the Greater Khingan region having the lowest. During the period of 2000–2020, woodland had the highest proportion, followed by arable land, while built-up land had the smallest proportion. The conversion of unused land and woodland represents the primary driver of the expansion in farmland areas, while the conversion of water bodies accounts for the majority of the growth in the area of unused land. The areas of woodland and water bodies exhibited a slight decrease. The order of water yield of land use types, from the greatest to the least, is as follows: built-up land, unused land, farmland, grassland, woodland, and water bodies. The main factor affecting changes in precipitation levels in the province is climate change, which contributed up to 99.58% during the period 2000–2020. In contrast, changes in land use types contributed a mere 0.42%. The sustained expansion of the urban population in Heilongjiang province has resulted in an augmented water yield in select regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The close relationship between land use and carbon stock is crucial for regional carbon balance, territorial and spatial planning, and the sustainable development of ecosystems. As a pioneer of Park Cities, Chengdu plays a vital role in Chinese cities. To investigate the impact of Park City construction on carbon stock, this study adopted a new perspective, the Park City perspective, using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to analyze the spatial and temporal differences in carbon stock. Additionally, we used Geographic Detector to analyze the driving factors of carbon stock in Chengdu. Based on the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals (peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060), we simulated the carbon stock in Chengdu for the years 2030 and 2060. Simultaneously, combining the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, we simulated the changing trends of carbon stock in Chengdu under three scenarios: the natural development scenario (NDS), cultivated land protection scenario (CLDS), and Park City scenario (PCS). The results show the following: (1) After the construction of the Park City, the quality of forest land improved, resulting in an increase in forest carbon stock by 1.19 × 106 tons. (2) Compared to the scenario without Park City construction, the implementation of the Park City led to a total carbon stock increase of 3.75 × 105 tons, with forest carbon stock increasing by 7.48 × 105 tons. (3) The PCS is the most conducive to achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, with the highest carbon stock. (4) Carbon stock is mainly driven by socio-economic factors. Land use/land cover (LULC) has the greatest explanatory power, with a q value of 0.9. The Park City is of great significance for an increase in carbon stock in Chengdu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon storage (C-storage) is a critical indicator of ecosystem services, and it plays a vital role in maintaining ecological balance and driving sustainability. Its assessment provides essential insights for enhancing environmental protection, optimizing land use, and formulating policies that support long-term ecological and economic sustainability. Previous research on C-storage in the Yellow River Basin has mainly concentrated on the spatiotemporal fluctuations of C-storage and the investigation of natural influencing factors. However, research combining human activity factors to explore the influences on C-storage is limited. In this paper, based on the assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of C-storage in the region along the Middle and Lower Yellow River (MLYR), the influences of anthropogenic and natural factors on C-storage were explored from the perspective of sustainable development. The findings reflected the relationship between socio-economic activities and the ecological environment from a sustainable development perspective, providing important scientific evidence for the formulation of sustainability policies in the region. We noticed the proportion of arable land was the highest, reaching 40%. The increase of construction land because of the fast urbanization mainly came from arable land and grassland. During the past 15 years, the cumulative loss of C-storage was 71.17 × 106 t. The high-value of C-storage was primarily situated in hilly areas, and the area of C-storage hotspots was shrinking. The aggregation effect of low-value C-storage was strengthening, while that of high-value C-storage was weakening. The dominant factors (q > 0.5) influencing the spatiotemporal variation of C-storage in the region along the Middle Yellow River (MYR) were temperature and precipitation, while the primary factor in the region along the Lower Yellow River (LYR) was temperature. Overall, meteorological factors were the main determinants across the entire study area. Additionally, compared to the MYR, anthropogenic factors had a smaller impact on the spatiotemporal evolution of C-storage in the LYR, but their influence has been increasing over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Water conservation is an important ecosystem service, which is crucial to the fragile ecological environment and serious soil erosion in Northwest China. However, water conservation has been affected by climate change and human disturbance, and its future spatial and temporal changes are still unclear. This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs (InVEST) model to assess the water conservation capacity of Northwest China between 1990 and 2020. Subsequently, the Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6) were integrated to examine changes in water conservation from 2030 to 2050. The water conservation quantity in Northwest China had a fluctuating growth tendency between 1990 and 2020, with an average of 816.61 × 108 m3. The water conservation capacity's regional distribution pattern shows a steady increase from northwest to southeast. Northwest China's forest land had the greatest water conservation capacity between 1990 and 2020, at 66 mm, while the water land had the lowest, at 1.46 mm. The water conservation capacity in the 2030–2050 future scenario is less than that in 2020 when the regional distribution pattern is comparable to 2020. Natural development scenario (ND) in 2030 has the lowest water conservation capacity (13.41 mm) under ssp1‐2.6 precipitation scenario, whereas in 2050, the highest water conservation capacity (17.47 mm) is found in same scenario. The ecological protection scenario (EP) has the greatest water retention capacity (18.15 mm in 2040) and the lowest (14.38 mm in 2050) in the ssp5‐8.5 scenario. Our research can help restore and rebuild Northwest China's natural ecosystem and offer a theoretical foundation for the protection of ecological environment and the rational utilization of water resources in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, non-point source pollution (NPSP) has become prominent in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China and seriously affects human survival and sustainable development. The Henan section was selected as an example region of the YRB in China, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model has been used to quantitatively evaluate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The results show that (1) the cultivated land (CL), grassland (GL), and unused land (UL) decreased, while forest land (FL), water areas (WAs), and built-up areas (BAs) increased in 2000-2020, and precipitation increased from the northeast to the southwest in 2000-2020; (2) the N export was much more than P export in 2000, 2010, and 2020, and the N and P exports increased in 2000-2020; the spatial distribution of N and P export changes was different in the whole basin in 2000-2010, 2010-2020, and 2000-2020; (3) the N and P exports decreased in 2000-2010, 2010-2020, and 2000-2020 with increasing precipitation; and (4) the N and P exports on CL and BAs were more than those on the other land-use types, and the overall change trends of N and P exports on all land-use types increased from 2000 to 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of ecological security patterns has become a crucial approach to assessing ecosystem health and integrity and is essential for achieving sustainable and high-quality development in both urban and rural areas. Using Lanzhou City as an example, our study employed the InVEST model, ecological service importance evaluation, and hotspot analysis to classify ecological sources. Additionally, ecological corridors were identified and optimized using the least resistance model and circuit theory. The identified corridor pattern was further analyzed using space syntax and neural networks to determine the influences of various factors. This framework can be applied to the circular construction of corridors. Our findings revealed a three-stage differentiation trend in the importance of ecosystem services. Ecological source areas and corridors were densely distributed in the northwest of Lanzhou. The optimized ecological source area increased from 2914.1 km2 to 4542.5 km2, raising its proportion in the study area from 22.2% to 34.7%. The total number of corridors after optimization was 217, spanning a 2657.3 km length. The Gaolan Mountain area had the highest current density, whereas the ecological barrier area was mainly distributed in the northwest of Yongdeng County and the north of Yuzhong County. The spatial syntax index indicated significant potential reachability between the Honggu area and the northwest area. Finally, using neural network perceptrons to simulate ecosystem service functions, our findings revealed that habitat quality showed the best fit under single-dependent-variable prediction, followed by water yield, with soil conservation showing a poor fit. Under three-dependent-variable prediction conditions, population factors had the greatest impact on ecosystem services, while slope had the least impact. Therefore, it is important to promote the construction of green infrastructure in the northwest and southeast, improve the connectivity of ecological corridors in Honggu District, and adopt corresponding spatial corridor optimization strategies according to different ecological needs. Collectively, our findings provide a theoretical and practical basis for the construction and optimization of urban and rural ecological security patterns in the semi-arid region of Lanzhou. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The carbon storage service of ecosystems in ecologically fragile areas is highly sensitive to regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Predicting changes in regional carbon storage under different LULC scenarios is crucial for land use management decisions and exploring carbon sink potential. This study focuses on the Luan River Basin, a typical ecologically fragile area, to analyze the impact of LULC changes on carbon storage. Methods: The PLUS-InVEST model was employed to simulate LULC patterns for the year 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, cropland protection and urban development, and ecological protection. The model projected the future carbon sink potential of the basin under these scenarios. Results: From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage showed a trend of decrease followed by an increase. By 2030, compared to 2020, carbon storage is projected to increase by 16.97% under the ecological protection scenario and decrease by 22.14% under the cropland protection and urban development scenario. The increase in carbon storage was primarily due to the conversion of cropland and grassland to forestland, while the decrease was mainly associated with the conversion of forestland to grassland and cropland, and the transformation of grassland to cropland and construction land. In the potential LULC scenarios of 2030, certain regions within the basin exhibited unstable carbon sink potential, strongly influenced by LULC changes. These areas were predominantly characterized by artificially cultivated forests, shrubs, and agricultural land. Implementing appropriate forest management measures and optimizing agricultural land management practices are essential to enhance carbon sink potential in these regions. Population density, annual average temperature, and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) were the dominant factors driving the spatial variation of carbon sink potential in the Luan River Basin. Discussion: The research results provide a theoretical basis for rational planning of land use and the enhancement of carbon sink potential in ecologically fragile regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an essential water source conservation area and a fundamental national ecological functional area in the Yellow River Basin, Yinchuan City' s habitat quality is related to regional ecological security and sustainable development. However, further research is needed on the habitat quality and influencing factors in Yinchuan City of Ningxia, China. Based on three phases of land-use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, as well as the habitat quality module of the InVEST model, Moran' s I index, and Geodetector, habitat quality was estimated and the spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed over the past 20 years. The impact of nine influencing factors, such as elevation, slope, and vegetation coverage, etc, on habitat quality was quantified. The results showed the following: (1) Yinchuan City' s average habitat quality index in 2000, 2010, and 2020 was 0.337, 0.332, and 0.322, respectively. The habitat quality index was low and slightly decreased over the past 20 years. The magnitude and proportion of habitat quality improvement are lower than those of deterioration, and the habitat quality exhibits a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the north and south, and low in the middle. (2) Habitat quality has a strong spatial agglomeration effect in space, and Moran' s I index shows a downward trend. The degree of spatial autocorrelation of habitat quality has weakened, and agglomeration has gradually decreased. The LISA clustering map results show that the areas that have changed over the past 20 years primarily include the central and northern parts of the study area, with high-low clustering areas changing to low-low clustering areas. (3) Elevation and land-use type are the primary factors influencing habitat quality in Yinchuan City. The interplay of various influencing factors showed that the enhancement effect on habitat quality increases accordingly, primarily with a dual-factor enhancement, followed by a nonlinear enhancement. The interaction between elevation and various factors emerges as the most significant contributor. The results provide a scientific basis and support for decision-making for ecological protection and high-quality and sustainable development in Yinchuan City. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A thorough comprehension of distribution features of ecosystem services (ESs) and the influencing mechanisms can offer scientific guidance for the ecosystem management of small watersheds. We analyzed the spatial distribution patterns, interrelationships, and service hotspots of ESs across pixel and administrative scales using a multi-level statistical analysis approach in the Ashi River Basin. Through the quantitative calculation of the InVEST model, the findings revealed a decrease in soil retention, water yield, total nitrogen and phosphorus export, carbon storage, and habitat quality, while an increase in food production was observed during the period from 1995 to 2015. Through the geographical detector, the spatial heterogeneity of most individual ESs was influenced by land use patterns. Through redundancy analysis, terrain factors had the highest contribution rate to the integral ESs. Socio-economic factors and climate factors also drove the ESs' amount and spatial distribution. At the pixel scale and administrative scale, there were distinctions in the correlations between all ESs, reflected by the fact that the relationships between ESs at the administrative scale were generally weaker and no more significant than at the pixel scale. Based on the number and distribution of hotspots in ESs and the clustering results of influencing factors, the framework of ecosystem zoning was constructed. This basin was divided into three ecological zones, and the management policies were formulated according to the ecological environment. This study clarifies the internal and mutual connection between ESs and influencing factors across two scales, thus contributing to the advancement of management strategies for ecological conservation and socio-economic development within the context of small watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, increasing urbanization has profoundly impacted the quality of regional habitats, presenting a severe risk to the ability of a region to develop in a high-quality manner. Therefore, the scientific assessment of the features of habitat quality (HQ) evolution over time and space and the prediction of future trends in changes in the HQ are of great significance for the formulation of effective ecological protection policies. Based on five periods of land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2000 to 2020, InVEST model was used to estimate both geographical and chronological trends in the HQ in the Tuha region, China. Spatial autocorrelation analysis methods were used to assess HQ and spatial aggregation of habitat degradation, and ecological zoning was delineated in conjunction with the Human Footprint Index (HFI). Based on the results of ecological zoning, the study predicted changes in habitat quality (HQ) in 2040 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological preservation (EP), and urban development (UD) by applying the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. The results demonstrated that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality in the Tuha region exhibited a downward trend, with the proportion of low HQ increasing from 83.63% to 84.24%. Spatially, high habitat quality (HQ) is mainly concentrated in the Tianshan Mountains. From 2000 to 2020, the Moran index for habitat quality (HQ) decreased from 0.967 to 0.959, while the Moran index for habitat degradation declined from 0.805 to 0.780. The habitat quality (HQ) and degradation exhibit significant spatial aggregation, and the degree of degradation has increased incrementally. (2) From 2000 to 2020, human activities in the Tuha area increased continuously and were mainly concentrated in Tuha district and counties. The proportion of high Human Footprint Index (HFI) increased from 0.66% to 1.32%, while the proportion of medium HFI increased from 3.13% to 7.46%. (3) The expansion of urbanized land has exacerbated habitat degradation. The proportion of high HQ in the EP scenario is higher than that in ND and UD scenario. The results show that the ecological protection scenario is more conducive to the sustainable development of habitat quality in the Tuha region. The results can provide a scientific basis for ecological management and protection in the Tuha area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The establishment and management of protected areas (PAs) often involve modifying traditional land use rights and changing the production and living activities of locals, which can lead to changes in the factors that drive land use transitions. Our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of land use transition and the contributions of social-ecological drivers remains incomplete. In this study, we focused on the Yarlung Zangbu Grand Canyon National Park and examined how social-ecological factors influence land use transitions by developing a theoretical model of land use transitions within PAs. Our findings revealed that cropland, shrubland, grassland, and wetland experienced net losses in area, while forestland, water, ice/snow, barren land, and impervious land exhibited fluctuating growth patterns from 1985 to 2020. The net decrease in grassland was 157425.60 ha, while the net increase in forest was 140709.20 ha. The quality of land habitat increased from 0.5158 to 0.6656. Land use dominant and recessive transitions displayed varying spatial characteristics and scales across different time periods. In particular, the degree of influence of policy factors on land use dominant transition declined from 0.0800 in 1985–1990 to –0.0432 in 2010–2020, while its influence on land use recessive transition declined from 0.00058 in 1985–1990 to 0 in 2010–2020. The results show that social-ecological factors intricately influenced different types of land use transitions, leading to a shift from a balanced state to a new equilibrium. These results enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and complex dynamics of land use transitions within PAs, providing insights and practical implications for effective land management in PAs by considering the land-human relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological restoration programs (ERPs) can lead to dramatic land use change, thereby affecting ecosystem services and their interaction. Determining the optimal ERPs is a crucial issue for ecological restoration in ecologically fragile regions. This study analyzed the impacts of land use change on four water-related ecosystem services (WESs), namely water yield, soil retention, water purification, and food production in the Ganjiang River basin, China during the past two decades. Then, trade-off and synergy between WESs were detected based on correlation analysis. Finally, to quantify the effect of ERPs on WESs, we comprehensively considered the types and intensity of ERPs and designed four categories of scenarios: returning farmland to forest (RFF) scenarios; planting forest (PF) scenarios; riparian forestland buffer (RFB) scenarios; and riparian grassland buffer (RGB) scenarios. Each category contains five scenarios of different intensities. The results showed that water yield, soil retention, and food production increased while water purification decreased from 2000 to 2020. The deterioration of water quality was mainly due to transitions from forestland to farmland and built-up land. Trade-offs only occurred between regulating services and provisioning services. Among all ecological restoration scenarios, only the RFF scenarios can significantly improve soil retention and water purification at the same time, although food production will decrease. Considering food security, returning farmland with a slope greater than 10 degrees to forestland was the optimal scenario in the study area. This study highlighted that both the type and intensity of ERPs should be considered in ecological restoration. This study can contribute to ecological restoration in the Ganjiang River basin and other subtropical mountainous regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Irrigation & Drainage is the property of Journal of Irrigation & Drainage Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Under the background of rapid urbanization, strengthening the research on the response and dynamic mechanism of ecosystem services to land use is conducive to the optimization of land space and ecological restoration and governance in megacities. Using Hefei City as a case study, we examined specific ecosystem services and analyzed how water yield, habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation changed over time from 2000 to 2020. We utilized spatial information technology and the InVEST model to assess these changes. Additionally, we developed a comprehensive ecological service index (CES) and used Geodetector and regression models to investigate how ecosystem services responded to land use. In addition, we utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030. This was performed under four different scenarios: natural development (ND), urban development (UD), cultivated land protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP). Furthermore, we assessed the effects of these land-use changes on ecosystem service functions by integrating the PLUS results with InVEST. The findings indicate the following: (1) between 2000 and 2020, farmland consistently remained the dominant land-use type in Hefei City while construction land experienced significant growth. Land-use conversion was prevalent during this period, and each ecological indicator exhibited noticeable geographic variation; (2) during the past 20 years, the comprehensive ecosystem service index (CES) exhibited clear spatial clustering patterns. The different types of land use showed significant quantitative relationships with CES. Specifically, cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water area had positive correlations, while construction land had a negative correlation. Geodetector analysis revealed that the proportion of ecological land use had the greatest impact on the spatial differentiation of CES, followed by population density; (3) according to the PLUS simulation, the UD scenario results in a significant conversion of cultivated land and grassland into construction land, leading to the greatest decrease in CES. In the ND scenario, the areas with decreasing CES are mostly areas that have been converted from other land types to construction land. In contrast, the EP scenario shows an increase in forest land and grassland, which promotes the enhancement of multiple ecosystem service functions simultaneously. This indicates that the EP scenario is the most favorable for sustainable land-use development. The study investigates the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services and evaluates the sustainability of regional land use. The findings have both theoretical and practical significance for effectively managing land use and regulating ecological functions in large cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the carbon cycle by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration and its response to land use/land cover (LULC) change, so as to effective guidance for carbon management and ecological restoration strategies. [Methods] InVEST and PLUS models were used to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2030. By combining data on LULC change, the relationship between carbon storage and LULC change was quantitatively analyzed. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020, the land types of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration were mainly forestland, cropland, and grassland, and forestland, cropland, and construction land showed an increasing trend, among which construction land increased the largest. (2) Carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration presented a change characteristics of “first increase and then decrease, gradually stabilize”, reaching a maximum value of 1.46×109 t in 2000, and decreasing to 1.45×109 t in 2020, showing a spatial distribution characteristic of “higher in the west, lower in the east”. (3) The carbon storage predictions under different future development scenarios indicated that, compared with 2020, all four scenarios showed a declining trend in carbon storage by 2030, among which the ecological development scenario experienced the least decline, with a reduction of 0.43×107 t compared with 2020, while the cropland development scenario exhibited the most significant decline, with a reduction of 1.05×107 t compared with 2020. (4) The conversion between cultivated land and forestland was the primary factor affecting carbon storage. Specifically, the transformation of cultivated land into forests plays a crucial role in increasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. Forest expansion significantly enhanced regional carbon storage, while a reduction in grassland negatively impacted carbon storage. [Conclusion] The conversion of forestland and cultivated land has a significant impact on increasing or decreasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.

Abstract Understanding the spatiotemporal variation and drivers of ecosystem services is fundamental to optimal management and sustainable development of World Heritage (WH) sites. Although WH sites face multiple natural and anthropogenic threats, our understanding of their ecosystem services is still limited, especially for karst WH sites. In this study, we assessed habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), water conservation (WC), and the combined ecosystem service (CES) of karst and non-karst WH sites in Southwest China from 2000 to 2020 using the InVEST model. We also assessed trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services using the spatial overlay method, and identified driving factors of variation in ecosystem services using geographical detector and structural equation models. The results showed that ecosystem services of the WH sites exhibited high spatiotemporal variation. In particular, there were higher values in the property zone than in the buffer zone, and an increasing trend in SR but a decreasing trend in HQ and CES over time. Compared to non-karst sites, karst WH sites had significantly lower values of HQ, CS, SR, and CES, but higher spatial heterogeneity in CS, WC, and CES. Weak trade-offs among ecosystem services dominated the WH sites, with the proportion of weak synergies increasing over time. Compared to non-karst sites, karst WH sites had a significantly lower proportion of strong synergies and a significantly higher proportion of weak synergies. The provision of ecosystem services was primarily influenced by natural factors (e.g., landscape division index and normalized difference vegetation index), followed by anthropogenic factors (e.g., distance from road and population density). Overall, these findings may have important implications for decision-making aimed at protecting the outstanding universal value, authenticity, and integrity of WH with different attributes.

Abstract Land-use change is the main driver of carbon storage change in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, domestic and international studies mainly focus on the impact of carbon storage changes on climate, while studies on the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage in complex terrestrial ecosystems are few. The Jialing River Basin (JRB), with a total area of ~ 160,000 km2, diverse topography, and elevation differences exceeding 5 km, is an ideal case for understanding the complex interactions between land-use change and carbon storage dynamics. Taking the JRB as our study area, we analyzed land-use changes from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we simulated land-use patterns for business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological priority (EP) scenarios in 2035 using the PLUS model. Additionally, we assessed carbon storage using the InVEST model. This approach helps us to accurately understand the carbon change processes in regional complex terrestrial ecosystems and to formulate scientifically informed land-use policies. The results revealed the following: (1) Cropland was the most dominant land-use type (LUT) in the region, and it was the only LUT experiencing net reduction, with 92.22% of newly designated construction land originating from cropland. (2) In the JRB, total carbon storage steadily decreased after 2005, with significant spatial heterogeneity. This pattern was marked by higher carbon storage levels in the north and lower levels in the south, with a distinct demarcation line. The conversion of cropland to construction land is the main factor driving the reduction in carbon storage. (3) Compared with the BAU and EP scenarios, the CP scenario demonstrated a smaller reduction in cropland area, a smaller addition to construction land area, and a lower depletion in the JRB total carbon storage from 2020 to 2035. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the PLUS and InVEST models in analyzing complex ecosystems and offers data support for quantitatively assessing regional ecosystem services. Strict adherence to the cropland replenishment task mandated by the Chinese government is crucial to increase cropland areas in the JRB and consequently enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of its ecosystem. Such efforts are vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of the JRB, particularly in the pursuit of the “dual-carbon” objective.

• Lake Edku, Egypt, sequester carbon which worth of $1.7 million. • NDVI and SAVI indicated that carbon stocks were best predicted during year of 2022. • Land use classification showed that many coastal areas were lost since 1994. As a case study to assess changes of blue carbon stocks among different land use classes; lake Edku, Egypt, was selected at the north Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Landsat 5 and 8 satellites imageries (1994, 2008, and 2022) were downloaded and upon classification, there were five land use classes identified: artificial surfaces (including barren and urban areas), crops, flooded vegetation, sabkha, and water. Using InVEST model, the quantity and economic value of the coastal blue carbon sequestration (CBCS) service offered by lake Edku were modelled. Based on land use classification of lake Edku, those area that were classified as surface water and croplands were decreased from 1994 to 2022. On the other hand, aerial coverage of the artificial surface increased. Analyses for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegeation Index (SAVI) indicated that the amount of carbon stocks estimated by ground inventory was best predicted during year of 2022 (R2= 0.449, P value < 0.01). Our economic analyses of CBCS provided by lake Edku between 1994 and 2022 was 0.6507 (106 Mg C ha−1), which has a value of about $49 millions. Per year, lake Edku sequester carbon that worth about $1.7 million. Our study concluded that CBCS service can hasten the adoption of wetland rehabilitation measures, which have a favourable effect on climate regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] Habitat quality is the potential of ecosystems to provide the necessary conditions for species survival and reproduction, and is the key to improving ecosystem functions. Studying the habitat quality of the Yangtze River Basin is of great significance for national major strategies such as green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the protection of the Yangtze River. [Methods] Based on land use data from 1980 to 2018 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the InVEST model was used to study the spatiotemporal changes in land use change, habitat quality, and habitat degradation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1980 to 2018. [Results] (1) As the main type of land use in the study area, woodland was decreasing, mainly turning to construction land and water area, which greatly reflected the driving effect of population growth, economic development and environmental protection on the change of land use structure. (2) The overall habitat quality of the study area was at a high level. showing a trend of low in the east and middle, and high in the south, which was consistent with the land use pattern that most of the cities along the Yangtze River in the east and middle of the study area were dominated by construction land, and the south was dominated by woodland and grassland. (3) In the study area, the degree of habitat degradation was higher in the central area and lower in the surrounding area. The change of the degree of habitat degradation showed an upward trend in time, and the areas where the degree of habitat degradation changes were more concentrated in space, such as the urban agglomeration along the river, urban and rural areas and other population agglomerations. [Conclusion] The habitat evolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is in a process of degradation. The process of urbanization makes a large number of woodland, grassland and cultivated land in land use turn to construction land, which leads to the continuous decline of habitat quality, especially the problem of the urban agglomeration. along the Yangtze River. We should develop construction land more reasonably and draw the ecological protection red line, gradually restore and improve the habitat quality of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and make a positive contribution to the process of the Yangtze River protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] This study was aimed to explore the impact of different land use patterns on regional ecosystem carbon storage. [Methods] In this paper, using the SD-PLUS coupled model and the coupled shared socio-economic path and representative concentration path (SSP-RCP) scenario proposed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the land use changes in Shaanxi province in 2030 were projected, and then the different future scenarios simulated by the InVEST model were used to predict the Shaanxi Province’s carbon storage and its spatial distribution under different future scenarios simulated by the InVEST model. [Results] (1) The SD model constructed was tested historically, and its error was less than 5%, and the Kappa index of land use in 2020 simulated by the PLUS model was 0.86, and the accuracy and reliability of the model generally met the requirements. (2) Under the three scenarios, the area of future construction land increased, and the scenarios with the lowest to highest growth rates were: SSP126, SSP245, SSP585. Under all scenarios, the area of forest land increased, and the area of watersheds remained stable; the area of grassland had a small increase under the SSP126 scenario, and decreased in other scenarios; and the area of arable land decreased in all three scenarios. (3) Carbon stock in Shaanxi Province decreased under all three scenarios, with the decrease in carbon stock in the Guanzhong plain being the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock in Shaanxi province. [Conclusion] The area of ecological land occupied by the expansion of construction land is the smallest under the SSP126 scenario, which takes into account both socio-economic development and the need for ecological protection, and can provide a reference model for the future protection of land resources and high-quality development in Shaanxi province.

[Objective] This study was aimed to estimate the amount of water conservation in Shaanxi Province. [Methods] The InVEST model and PLUS model were coupled to calculate the water conservation amount in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 and predict the water conservation amount under land use changes in the future in 2030. [Results] The average water conservation amount in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 was 132.25 mm, with a spatial distribution characteristic of gradually increasing water conservation from north to south. From the perspective of vegetation types, forest land was the main body of water conservation in Shaanxi Province. The average annual water conservation amount was 199.55×108 m3. From the administrative region, Ankang City had the largest water conservation amount(308.96 mm). The total amount of water source conservation in 2030 will be 285.16×108 m3 and 8.68×108 m3 less than that in 2020. [Conclusion] The water conservation amount of Shaanxi Province will show a slight downward trend from 2020 to 2030 in the future.

The Yihe River Basin is a key area for water conservation and soil erosion control in northern China. The excessive development of land resources is a major factor causing soil erosion and ecological degradation. However, the impacts of land use change on soil erosion in the basin are not yet clearly. Understanding the complex relationship between land use and soil erosion is an important way to promote the development of land resources utilization and ecological construction from cognition to decision-making. This study simulated the temporal-spatial changes of soil erosion in the basin from 1956 to 2020 using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and evaluated the changes of soil erosion under different land use scenarios from 2020 to 2050 using Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. From 1956 to 2020, the overall soil erosion intensity showed a slight decreasing trend, and the average annual soil erosion modulus was 38.21 t/ha/year. Soil erosion intensity was higher in the central and northern mountainous areas, while it was lower in the flat alluvial plains in the south. Arable land (4.07 t/ha/year) was the largest contributor to the amount of soil erosion, and land use changes caused the soil erosion intensity to fluctuate and decrease after 1995. From 2020 to 2050, soil erosion varied widely under different land use scenarios, and the land use pattern targeting ecological priority development would effectively mitigate soil erosion. Therefore, optimizing land use patterns and structures are critical initiatives to prevent soil erosion.

Abstract The Aral Sea, located in Central Asia, has undergone significant reduction in surface area owing to the combined impacts of climate change and human activities. This reduction has led to a regional ecological crisis and profound repercussions on ecosystem services. Investigating the spatiotemporal variations and synergistic trade-offs of ESs in the Aral Sea basin is crucial for fostering the integrated development of the region’s socioeconomic ecology. This study utilizes the Future Land-Use Simulation and InVEST models to analyze future land-use scenarios, integrating CMIP6 projections to assess the quality of four key ecosystem services: water production, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality over two timeframes: the historical period (1995–2020) and the projected future (2021–2100). Employing Spearman correlation, the study explores the trade-offs and synergies among these ecosystem services. Findings reveal that the primary forms of land-use change in the Aral Sea basin are the reduction in water area (− 49.59%) and the rapid expansion of urban areas (+ 504.65%). Temporally, habitat quality exhibits a declining trend, while carbon storage shows an increasing trend, and water production and soil retention fluctuate initially decreasing and then increasing. Spatially, water production and carbon storage demonstrate an increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast. Habitat quality exhibits a higher spatial pattern in the southeast and south, contrasting with lower spatial patterns in the north and west. Low-level soil conservation is predominantly distributed in the northwest, while medium to low-level soil conservation is prevalent in the east of the basin. The trade-off and synergy analysis indicates that between 1995 and 2020, a trade-off relationship existed between carbon storage and habitat quality and water production, whereas synergies were observed between soil conservation and carbon storage, water production and habitat quality, and soil conservation. The correlation between water production and soil conservation emerges as the strongest, whereas the correlation between carbon storage and habitat quality appears to be the weakest. The dynamic spatiotemporal changes, trade-offs, and collaborative relationships of ESs constitute major aspects of ecosystem service research, holding substantial implications for the effective management of the regional ecological environment.

Abstract As a major energy city in China, Yulin City has faced huge challenges to the ecological environment with its rapid economic development and rapid urbanization. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of land use changes on habitat quality. Based on three periods of land use data in Yulin City in 1995, 2005 and 2015, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use changes in 2015. The measured kappa coefficient was 0.8859, which met the simulation accuracy requirements. By setting development zone boundaries and adjusting parameters, three progressive scenarios are designed to predict the spatial distribution of land use in Yulin City in 2035. The InVEST model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of Yulin City’s habitat quality in the past 20 years and evaluate the distribution of Yulin City’s habitat quality under three scenarios after 20 years. The results are as follows: (1) During the study period, construction land in Yulin City expanded rapidly, with an area increase of 380.87 km2 in 20 years, and ecological land gradually shrank. (2) The land use simulation results of Yulin City under various scenarios in 2035 show that future land use changes in Yulin City will mainly be concentrated in the central and western regions. (3) During the study period, the habitat quality of Yulin City was at a medium level and the overall habitat quality showed a downward trend. Spatially, the degree of habitat quality degradation in Yulin City showed a characteristic of gradually decreasing from West to East. (4) By 2035, under the scenario of suitable urban economic development, Yulin City’s habitat quality has been improved to a certain extent, which not only protects ecological security but also meets the demand for construction land for urban development. The results of this study help the government better understand the evolution of land use and habitat quality in Yulin City in the past 20 years, and provide theoretical support and reference for the formulation of Yulin City’s ecological environment protection policies and the implementation of ecological protection work under the current land spatial planning.

[Objective] Through the spatio-temporal dynamic analysis of landscape ecological pattern and habitat quality, the response of habitat quality before and after the implementation of soil and water conservation measures in PU River Basin of Shenyang City was deeply studied, aiming to provide scientific basis for soil and water conservation strategies in small river basins, so as to promote the coordinated growth of the eco-economy and the sustainable and healthy development of regional ecology. [Methods] Based on the land use data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of PU River Basin in 2000, 2010 and 2020, combined with the FRAGSTATS and InVEST models, land use transfer matrix, landscape pattern index, habitat quality and habitat degradation degree were used to analyze land use change and explore quality response situation. [Results] (1) During the period from 2000 to 2010, the cultivated land development activities in the PU River Basin were frequent, resulting in a significant decline in the proportion of forest, grassland and other land types; In the period from 2010 to 2020, the construction of the PU River ecological corridor will promote the change of land use, and the cultivated land area will flow to artificial surfaces, forests and grasslands. (2) During 2000 to 2020, the overall landscape pattern of the PU River Basin experienced a process of first becoming complete and then fragmentary. The landscape on both sides of the Puhe River formed a dense pattern of multiple elements, and the habitat in the northern edge of the urban center continued to fragment. (3) From the overall analysis of the basin, the average habitat quality in 2000, 2010, and 2020 was 0.349, 0.329, and 0.354, respectively, showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. The mean values of habitat degradation were 0.098, 0.112, and 0.086, which were consistent with the trend in habitat quality. With the construction of the PU River Ecological Corridor, the quality of habitat will be improved significantly in 2020, and the threats to the ecosystem will be reduced. From the analysis of spatial pattern, the northeast and southwest show obvious spatial distribution characteristics. The quality of habitat in the mountainous areas of northeast China and the wetlands of southwest China is generally good, but there is a threat of habitat degradation. [Conclusion] Under the influence of soil and water conservation measures, the ecological pattern of the PU River Basin can be and the degradation of habitat can be effectively inhibited.

[Objective] To seek a new urban development plan of Hefei under the guidance of “double carbon” goal. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Hefei City in the 5th period from 2000 to 2020, under the guidance of territorial spatial Planning of Hefei City, the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use in 2035 was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatio-temporal change characteristics of carbon storage in Hefei City under multiple scenarios were explored by coupling the InVEST model. And further explore the effect of the comprehensive land use on the carbon storage. [Results] (1) The main characteristics of land use change in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020 were the decrease of cultivated land and forest land, among which cultivated land was the main source of construction land expansion. The law of land change in the natural development and farmland resource protection scenarios was roughly the same, mainly represented by the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and water body. In the green urban development scenario, the area of forest land changed from decreasing to increasing compared with the other two scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in Hefei City decreased year by year from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon loss was the most 2005 to 2010. By 2035, the carbon reserves of natural development scenario, farmland resource protection scenario and green urban development scenario were 138.96×106 t, 140.13×106 t, and 139.81×106 t, respectively. Under the farmland resource protection scenario, the area with the lowest increase of carbon storage significantly slowed down the expansion of the construction land. under the scenario of urban development, forest land changes from carbon loss to carbon sequestration, which was the most potential trend of carbon sequestration. (3) The land utilization rate of green urban development scenario was the highest, which can effectively reduce the threat of comprehensive land use degree to carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] Both farmland resource protection scenario and green accumulation urban development scenario were conducive to urban carbon sequestration development. Implementing parallel policies of ecological protection and urban development, and adjusting comprehensive land use mode were conducive to improving urban carbon loss.

[Objective] The forest coverage rate of Fujian Province is as high as 66.8%, ranking first in China. To investigate the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in Fujian Province is the theoretical basis for exploring the balance between social development and ecological protection. [Methods] Based on the carbon storage module of PLUS model and InVEST model, relationship between the spatiotemporal change characteristics of carbon storage and land use types in Fujian province during 2000—2020 was revealed, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in Fujian Province during 2020—2030 were predicted from three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection and urban development. [Results] The total carbon reserves in the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 214.77×107, 214.51×107 and 212.93×107 t, respectively, indicating a downward trend year by years. The development and transformation of land by human activities was the dominant factor leading to changes in carbon stocks, and the conversion of large areas of cultivated land and forest land into urban areas was the primary reason for the decline in carbon stocks. The prediction results showed that compared with 2020, carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection and urban development in 2030 would decrease by 1.47×107 t, increase by 0.17×107 t, and decrease by 1.85×107 t, respectively. The ecological protection scenario was the only development scenario that reversed the decline in carbon stocks. Compared with 2020, the forest area had expanded by 1 900.87 km2 and the forest carbon storage had increased by 2.08 ×107 t, which could effectively protect the ecology and meet the land requirements for urban development. [Conclusion] Prioritizing forest land protection and controlling the expansion of construction land are crucial prerequisites for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

This research seeks to assess historically the urban expansion of Agadir city in Morocco within the 35-year timespan (1984-2019), and the influence of those changes on the regulating services of Agadir. It was achieved by applying Support Vector Machine supervised (SVM) algorithm on each Landsat products to derive Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) maps. High accuracy assessment values were obtained for all Landsat classified maps. Spectral radiance model was exploited successfully to highlight the spatiotemporal changes of thermal behavior of city surfaces. Terrestrial carbon dynamics of Agadir LULC was evaluated by applying a process-based carbon model. Outcomes of this paper revealed an important urban expansion within the 35-year timespan with an important loss of vegetation and bare land. This urban evolution impacts the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and caused carbon storage loss that contributes to local climate change. These findings could assist policy-makers to characterize a sustainable evolution of urban area, especially, to interpret how and where LULC changes might alter the dynamics of climate regulation and ecosystem services.

Carbon storage plays a vital role in the provision of ecosystem services, and the alteration of land use has a profound influence on the carbon storage capacity of ecosystems. Therefore, in this study, two scenarios of natural evolution scenario (NES) and ecological conservation scenario (ECS) were set up based on the development of Mohe City,China. Meanwhile, a coupled model of LUCC and ecosystem carbon storage was established using Logistic-CA-Markov and InVEST models, as well as optimal parameters_based geographical Detector and GeoDa, to predict the distribution and change of ecosystem carbon storage based on LUCC in the future. The effects of different influencing factors on the spatial differentiation of carbon storage were also explored. The results show that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the land use type in Mohe City was dominated by the forest and its area decreased; the area of wetland increased. From 2020 to 2040, ecological benefits will be shown under the ECS, with an increase in forest and a slower expansion of built-up. (2) Carbon loss in Mohe City from 1980 to 2020 was 4.04Tg. Under the ECS carbon storage increased slightly by 0.2Tg. Soil carbon storage was the main carbon pool in Mohe City, and forest was the largest contributor. The carbon storage of Mohe city in 2030 and 2040 has a strong positive spatial correlation. Hot spots in more than a cold spots area, the high value area is concentrated in the east, low concentrated in urban areas. (3) Apart from LUCC, mean annual precipitation was the most significant factors affecting the spatial differentiation variability of carbon storage. The interactions of mean annual precipitation and population density with other factors exhibit a non-linear enhancement,which had a coefficient of 21.91%. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the relationship between LUCC and carbon storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]