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Abstract Background China is ranked third globally in terms of burden and has a moderately high to high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB). This study meticulously investigated the notification rates of TB and assessed the epidemic in China from 2000 to 2021. The aim of the study was to provide robust supporting data that is crucial for enhancing TB prevention and control strategies. Methods Extensive data regarding TB notification rates in China between 2000 and 2021 was collected. The joinpoint regression model was subsequently utilized to assess the temporal trends in the notification rates of TB, which were analyzed through the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Results During the study period (2000–2021), the standardized notification rates of TB in China ranged from 38.89/100,000 to 101.15/100,000, with a significant annual average decrease of 4.43% (P

Abstract Background Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) results from the rupture of blood vessels causing bleeding within the brain and is one of the major causes of death and long-term disability globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Despite having a lower incidence than ischemic stroke, ICH imposes a greater social and economic burden. To our knowledge, since the release of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report, there has been no comprehensive update on the epidemiology and trends of ICH. This study aims to analyze the impact of gender, age, and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) on the burden of ICH at global, regional, and national levels. Methods Data on the incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ICH and its related risk factors from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 project, encompassing 203 countries and regions. Furthermore, temporal trends of the global intracerebral hemorrhage burden were assessed through Joinpoint analysis. Results In 2021, there were 3.444 million new cases of ICH worldwide, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 40.8 per 100,000 people, representing a 31.4% decrease compared to 1990. In 2021, ICH caused 3.308 million deaths, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 39.1 per 100,000 people, a reduction of 36.6% since 1990. Globally, ICH accounted for 79.457 million DALYs, with an age-standardized DALY rate of 92.4 per 100,000 people, representing a 39.1% decrease since 1990. Regionally, Central Asia, Oceania, and Southeast Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates of ICH, whereas Australasia, high-income North America, and Western Europe had the lowest rates. Nationally, the Solomon Islands, Mongolia, and Kiribati had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates, whereas Switzerland, New Zealand, and Australia had the lowest. Hypertension, smoking, and environmental pollution were identified as the primary risk factors for ICH. This study also validated the significant association between SDI and the burden of ICH, with the age-standardized DALY rate of ICH decreasing significantly as SDI increased. Conclusion Despite the decreasing burden of intracerebral hemorrhage, it remains a significant public health issue in countries with a lower SDI. Prevention strategies should prioritize hypertension management, air quality improvement, and smoking control to further mitigate the impact of intracerebral hemorrhage.

Background: China is ranked third globally in terms of burden and has a moderately high to high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB). This study meticulously investigated the notification rates of TB and assessed the epidemic in China from 2000 to 2021. The aim of the study was to provide robust supporting data that is crucial for enhancing TB prevention and control strategies. Methods: Extensive data regarding TB notification rates in China between 2000 and 2021 was collected. The joinpoint regression model was subsequently utilized to assess the temporal trends in the notification rates of TB, which were analyzed through the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Results: During the study period (2000–2021), the standardized notification rates of TB in China ranged from 38.89/100,000 to 101.15/100,000, with a significant annual average decrease of 4.43% (P < 0.05). Before the COVID-19 pandemic, a marked acceleration in this decline was observed from 2006 to 2015, with an APC of 4.62% (P < 0.05). Stratified by age and sex, the age group with the most significant annual decline in overall standardized notification rates of TB among males in China was < 15 years old, followed by 55–64 years old, and the group with the least decrease was 25–44 years old. Similarly, the age group with the most significant annual decline in standardized notification rates of TB among females was < 15 years old. Conclusions: The epidemic of TB in China exhibited a downward trajectory between 2000 and 2021. However, it is imperative to prioritize the attention given to males and older adults, and to promote specific and effective prevention and control strategies for these populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Dongguan City from 2005 to 2022, and to provide scientific theoretical guidance for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis C in the future. [WTHZ]Methods [WTBZ]The reported cases and demographic data in Dongguan City from 2005 to 2022 were collected and analyzed by Excel 2016, SPSS25.0 and Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0 software. The value is 0.05 as a standard test. [WTHZ]Results [WTBZ]From 2005 to 2022 the average annual incidence of hepatitis C in Dongguan city was 12.84/100 000. The annual incidence showed an upward trend from 2005 to 2011 (APC=15.74%) and a downward trend from 2011 to 2021 (APC=-5.41%). The incidence of reported cases in Guancheng district (34.78/100 000), Shilong Town (25.33/100 000) and Xiegang Town (17.90/100 000) were among the top three in all the towns and streets. The average annual incidence in males (17.45/100 000) was higher than that in females (8.17/100 000), moreover, the incidence in male has declined since 2014 (APC=-7.01%), and the incidence in female has declined since 2011 (APC=-7.64%). The ages of onset were mainly from 20 to 49 years old(15 873 cases, 75.07%), In the age group of 50 to 59 years, the annual incidence showed an upward trend(AAPC=24.47%). The most affected population group was housewives and unemployed individuals (6 003 cases, 28.39%) and the annual constituent ratios was on the rise (AAPC=6.59%).[WTHZ]Conclusion [WTBZ]The reported incidence level of hepatitis C in Dongguan is higher than that in China. And the annual reported incidence has declined since 2011. Improving the prevention and cure of hepatitis C among men, 20 to 59 age group and housewives and unemployed individuals is suggested to reduce the incidence of hepatitis C effectively.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) results from the rupture of blood vessels causing bleeding within the brain and is one of the major causes of death and long-term disability globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Despite having a lower incidence than ischemic stroke, ICH imposes a greater social and economic burden. To our knowledge, since the release of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report, there has been no comprehensive update on the epidemiology and trends of ICH. This study aims to analyze the impact of gender, age, and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) on the burden of ICH at global, regional, and national levels. Methods: Data on the incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ICH and its related risk factors from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 project, encompassing 203 countries and regions. Furthermore, temporal trends of the global intracerebral hemorrhage burden were assessed through Joinpoint analysis. Results: In 2021, there were 3.444 million new cases of ICH worldwide, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 40.8 per 100,000 people, representing a 31.4% decrease compared to 1990. In 2021, ICH caused 3.308 million deaths, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 39.1 per 100,000 people, a reduction of 36.6% since 1990. Globally, ICH accounted for 79.457 million DALYs, with an age-standardized DALY rate of 92.4 per 100,000 people, representing a 39.1% decrease since 1990. Regionally, Central Asia, Oceania, and Southeast Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates of ICH, whereas Australasia, high-income North America, and Western Europe had the lowest rates. Nationally, the Solomon Islands, Mongolia, and Kiribati had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates, whereas Switzerland, New Zealand, and Australia had the lowest. Hypertension, smoking, and environmental pollution were identified as the primary risk factors for ICH. This study also validated the significant association between SDI and the burden of ICH, with the age-standardized DALY rate of ICH decreasing significantly as SDI increased. Conclusion: Despite the decreasing burden of intracerebral hemorrhage, it remains a significant public health issue in countries with a lower SDI. Prevention strategies should prioritize hypertension management, air quality improvement, and smoking control to further mitigate the impact of intracerebral hemorrhage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Workplace and non‐workplace homicides in the United States (U.S.) have declined for over 30 years until recently. This study was conducted to address the change in trends for both workplace and non‐workplace homicides and to evaluate the homogeneity of the change in workplace homicides by specified categories. Joinpoint and autoregressive models were used to assess trends of U.S. workplace and non‐workplace homicides utilizing surveillance data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Bureau of Investigation from 1994 through 2021. Both workplace and non‐workplace homicides decreased significantly from 1994 through 2014. Workplace homicides showed no significant trend from 2014 through 2021 (p = 0.79), while non‐workplace homicides showed a significant average annual increase of 4.1% from 2014 through 2020 (p = 0.0013). The large decreases in the trend of workplace homicides occurring during a criminal act, such as robbery, leveled off and started to increase by the end of the study period (p < 0.0001). Declines in workplace homicides due to shootings also leveled off and started to increase by the end of the study period (p < 0.0001). U.S. workplace and non‐workplace homicide rates declined from the 1990s until around 2014. Trends in workplace homicides varied by the types of the homicide committed and by the type of employee that was the victim. Criminal‐intent‐related events, such as robbery, appear to be the largest contributor to changes in workplace homicides. Researchers and industry leaders could develop and evaluate interventions that further address criminal‐intent‐related workplace homicides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China. Methods: Data were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age- standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period. Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively. Conclusions: The early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The disease burden of colorectal cancer in East Asia has been at a high level. However, the epidemiological characteristics of the disease burden in this region have not been systematically studied. Method: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 program. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify long‐term trends in mortality of colorectal cancer. Independent effects of age, period, and cohort were detected by the age–period–cohort model. The Bayesian age–period–cohort model was performed to predict the burden of colorectal cancer across East Asia by 2030. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) showed upward trends in mainland China (1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI)], 0.82, 1.28) as well as Taiwan Province of China (1.81 [95% CI], 1.51, 2.10) but downward in Japan (−0.60 [95% CI], −0.70, −0.49) (P < 0.05). Attributable risk factors for colorectal cancer in East Asia remained stable over 30 years, while the risk of metabolic factors is noteworthy in the future. In the next decade, the age‐standardized death rate (ASDR) of colorectal cancer in China was predicted to surpass that of Japan and South Korea in expectation. Conclusion: The mortality of colorectal cancer is escalating in developing countries, while it is gradually declining in high‐income countries across East Asia. Nonetheless, the disease burden of colorectal cancer in high‐income countries remains substantial level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Currently, limited research is available on the comparative analysis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and mortality rates between China and the United States. This study aimed to explore the trends in CKD incidence and mortality rates in both countries, as well as make some future predictions. Methods The data on CKD incidence and mortality in China and the US from 1990 to 2019 were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends in CKD incidence and mortality. An age-period-cohort model was used to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on CKD risk and forecast the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CKD in China and the US over the next 15 years. Results CKD incidence in China and the US showed an upward trend. Its mortality rate showed a downward trend in China but an upward one in the US. The relative risk (RR) of CKD incidence and mortality increases with age. The RR of CKD incidence in the 0–5 age group exceeds that in the 5–55 age group, and the RR for mortality surpasses that in the 5–35 age group. Over time, the RR of CKD incidence has gradually increased in China and the US. Individuals born in later birth cohorts had a lower RR of CKD incidence and mortality. The ASIR of CKD may increase in both China and the US, whereas its ASMR may decline over the next 15 years. Conclusion Screening measures should be strengthened among populations at high risk of CKD; prenatal examinations of pregnant women should be emphasized to reduce CKD incidence in newborns. It is imperative to increase health education and encourage individuals to adopt healthy lifestyles.

The purpose of this study was to clarify changes over time in suicidal tendencies among crisis hotline service users in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed telephone consultation data from January 2017 to June 2021 held by Inochi No Denwa, a leading organization providing a telephone crisis hotline in Japan. The number of monthly consultations by gender and the monthly counts of consultations identified by counselors as suicidal were collected, and we calculated trends over time in the proportion of suicidal calls by month using Joinpoint regression analysis. The results indicated that the use of telephone crisis hotlines by suicidal callers increased significantly in Japan during the second wave of the pandemic in June to October 2020. These trends were also observed for both male and female users, although the increase began 1 month earlier for females than for males. Previous studies reported that mental health deteriorated and suicide risk increased significantly during the second wave of COVID-19 in Japan. These trends are consistent with the present findings, suggesting increased use of the crisis hotline by individuals at high suicide risk. Suicidal calls to crisis hotline in Japan increased rapidly from June to October 2020. Suicidal calls began to increase 1 month before the suicide rate increased for women. A sharp increase, not seen in the suicide rate for men, was observed in suicidal calls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Currently, limited research is available on the comparative analysis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and mortality rates between China and the United States. This study aimed to explore the trends in CKD incidence and mortality rates in both countries, as well as make some future predictions. Methods: The data on CKD incidence and mortality in China and the US from 1990 to 2019 were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends in CKD incidence and mortality. An age-period-cohort model was used to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on CKD risk and forecast the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CKD in China and the US over the next 15 years. Results: CKD incidence in China and the US showed an upward trend. Its mortality rate showed a downward trend in China but an upward one in the US. The relative risk (RR) of CKD incidence and mortality increases with age. The RR of CKD incidence in the 0–5 age group exceeds that in the 5–55 age group, and the RR for mortality surpasses that in the 5–35 age group. Over time, the RR of CKD incidence has gradually increased in China and the US. Individuals born in later birth cohorts had a lower RR of CKD incidence and mortality. The ASIR of CKD may increase in both China and the US, whereas its ASMR may decline over the next 15 years. Conclusion: Screening measures should be strengthened among populations at high risk of CKD; prenatal examinations of pregnant women should be emphasized to reduce CKD incidence in newborns. It is imperative to increase health education and encourage individuals to adopt healthy lifestyles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Cancer is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality, worldwide. Little information is available for the temporal trends of cancer in the Mediterranean region, including Cyprus. Aims We aimed to analyze cancer incidence trends overall and by sex for the period 2004–2017 regarding the five most common cancer sites for the population of Cyprus. Methods and results Data were obtained from the nationwide cancer registry dataset that included 27 017 total cancer cases in Cyprus (2004–2017). We estimated the crude, sex‐, and age‐specific, as well as age‐standardized (ASR) cancer incidence rates and we analyzed the time trends of ASR using the joinpoint regression program. For the general population (0–85+ years of age), the most common cancer sites in descending order, were breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, and thyroid cancer. During the study period, breast and thyroid cancer ASR presented a significant (p

Abstract This study presents the trends of age-standardised incidence and mortality rates of common cancers in Brunei Darussalam from 2011 to 2020. All cancer cases diagnosed among Brunei Darussalam citizens and permanent residents in the period 2011 to 2020 were included in the study. De-identified data were provided by the CanReg5 based BDCR, Ministry of Health Brunei Darussalam. The annual age-standardised incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 persons were standardised by the direct method using the World Health Organization (WHO) world standard population distribution. Joinpoint regression analyses were used to study the incidence and mortality trends of cancer in Brunei Darussalam over the 2011–2020 period. Trends were expressed as average annual percent change (AAPC) over 2011 to 2020, or annual percent change (APC) for a given time period. There were a total of 6,495 new cancer cases diagnosed and 3,359 death cases recorded from 2011 to 2020, in Brunei Darussalam. The five common cancers for males were colorectal, lung and bronchus, prostate, liver, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Among females, the five most common cancers were breast, colorectal, lung and bronchus, corpus uteri and cervix uteri. The five leading cancer deaths for males were lung and bronchus, colorectal, liver, prostate, and stomach, while for females, the five leading cancer deaths were breast, lung and bronchus, colorectal, ovary, and cervix uteri. There was a significant increase in the incidence trend of corpus uteri (AAPC $$:13.3$$ : 13.3 ) and a significant decline in the incidence trend for cervical cancer (AAPC $$:-4.5$$ : - 4.5 ) from 2011 to 2020. There was a significant increase in the mortality trend of female breast cancer from 2011 to 2015 (APC $$:16.3$$ : 16.3 ), but the trend significantly declined from 2015 to 2020 (APC $$:-12.5$$ : - 12.5 ). We also found a significant decrease in mortality trends for stomach cancer (AAPC $$:-4.7$$ : - 4.7 ) from 2011 to 2020 for both genders combined. The burden of common cancers is expected to continue to grow with ageing population, effective public health interventions targeting high burden cancers and high-risk groups, and control of modifiable risk factors will continue to be the essential approaches in reducing cancer burden.

This study presents the trends of age-standardised incidence and mortality rates of common cancers in Brunei Darussalam from 2011 to 2020. All cancer cases diagnosed among Brunei Darussalam citizens and permanent residents in the period 2011 to 2020 were included in the study. De-identified data were provided by the CanReg5 based BDCR, Ministry of Health Brunei Darussalam. The annual age-standardised incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 persons were standardised by the direct method using the World Health Organization (WHO) world standard population distribution. Joinpoint regression analyses were used to study the incidence and mortality trends of cancer in Brunei Darussalam over the 2011–2020 period. Trends were expressed as average annual percent change (AAPC) over 2011 to 2020, or annual percent change (APC) for a given time period. There were a total of 6,495 new cancer cases diagnosed and 3,359 death cases recorded from 2011 to 2020, in Brunei Darussalam. The five common cancers for males were colorectal, lung and bronchus, prostate, liver, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Among females, the five most common cancers were breast, colorectal, lung and bronchus, corpus uteri and cervix uteri. The five leading cancer deaths for males were lung and bronchus, colorectal, liver, prostate, and stomach, while for females, the five leading cancer deaths were breast, lung and bronchus, colorectal, ovary, and cervix uteri. There was a significant increase in the incidence trend of corpus uteri (AAPC : 13.3 ) and a significant decline in the incidence trend for cervical cancer (AAPC : - 4.5 ) from 2011 to 2020. There was a significant increase in the mortality trend of female breast cancer from 2011 to 2015 (APC : 16.3 ), but the trend significantly declined from 2015 to 2020 (APC : - 12.5 ). We also found a significant decrease in mortality trends for stomach cancer (AAPC : - 4.7 ) from 2011 to 2020 for both genders combined. The burden of common cancers is expected to continue to grow with ageing population, effective public health interventions targeting high burden cancers and high-risk groups, and control of modifiable risk factors will continue to be the essential approaches in reducing cancer burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study aimed to estimate the epidemiological trends of gastric cancer in the United States from 1992 to 2019. This population‐based study used the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results‐12 database as a fundamental cohort to analyze gastric cancer incidence, incidence‐based mortality (IBM), overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) probabilities from 1992 to 2019. The Global Burden of Disease study (1990‐2018) was used as a likely validation cohort. Age‐period‐cohort analyses were performed to explore the underlying causes of trend changes. We found that the incidence rate of gastric cancer decreased from 1992 to 2019. IBM also decreased significantly from 1997 to 2019. The 3‐year OS and CSS of gastric cancer increased from 22.3% to 28.7% and 25.7% to 33.5%, respectively. However, the proportion of distant gastric cancer cases had unexpectedly increased rapidly from 33.1% in 1992 to 44.7% in 2019. Age‐period‐cohort modeling found that the incidence and IBM rates remained stable in the groups aged below 50 years, while that in all age groups older than 50 years showed a significant downward trend. High incidence and mortality risks were observed in the younger birth cohorts (birth year after 1990). To conclude, we observed a decline in incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer in the United States in the past decades. We determined that progression of primary and tertiary preventive measures is the main reason for the reduction in the disease burden of gastric cancer. However, secondary preventive measures for gastric cancer still need to be strengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundExcess body mass index (BMI) plays a key role in the onset and progression of knee osteoarthritis (knee OA). However, the burden of knee OA attributable to high BMI at the global, Chinese, and regional levels have received far too little attention. The aim of this study is to provide evidence to support the design of policy by investigating long-term trends of years lived with disability (YLDs) for knee OA.MethodsTo illustrate the trends of YLDs for knee OA attributable to high BMI and the temporal trends of the YLDs rate by age, period, and cohort, Joinpoint regression software and age-period-cohort (APC) were used to analyze the YLDs data of knee OA from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019.ResultsIn China, there were 549,963.5 YLDs for knee OA attributable to high BMI in 2019, which had increased by 460.7% since 1990. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) of knee OA attributable to high BMI trended upwards. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of knee OA attributable to high BMI in China and globe were 3.019, 1.419%, respectively. The longitudinal age curve of the APC model showed that the YLDs rates of knee OA due to high BMI increased with age, and YLDs rates were higher among females than males. The period rate ratios (RRs) of knee OA due to high BMI increased significantly. The cohort RRs of knee OA due to high BMI increased among those born between 1900 and 1970. The net drifts of knee OA attributable to high BMI in China and globe were above 1. Compared with global condition, the net drift values of knee OA attributable to high BMI in China was higher. Compared with females, males had higher net drift value. Countries with high socio-demographic index (SDI) have a much higher burden of knee OA caused by high BMI than countries with low SDI.ConclusionIn China, high BMI is a substantial cause of knee OA, the incidence of which has been increasing since 1990. In addition, women and the elderly are more vulnerable to knee OA caused by high BMI. The Chinese government must take the long-term impact of high BMI on knee OA into account and implement effective public health policies and resort to interventions to reduce the burden as soon as possible.

The aim of this study was to investigate the upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence trend in China from 1990 to 2019 with Joinpoint software and to evaluate the age effect, cohort effect, and period effect using the age–period–cohort model, with the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. The crude incidence rate (CR) of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China increased from 41.48/100,000 in 1990 to 62.64/100,000 in 2019, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was 1.42 (p < 0.05). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 50.77/100,000 to 37.42/100,000, and the AAPC was −1.12 (p < 0.05). The net drift was −0.83 (p < 0.05), and the local drifts in the 35–79 age groups of males and all age groups of females were less than 0 (p < 0.05). The age effect showed that the upper gastrointestinal cancer onset risk gradually increased with age, the period effect was fundamentally manifested as a downward trend in onset risk after 2000, and the cohort effect indicated the decreased onset risk of the overall birth cohort after 1926. The ASIR of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 showed a downward trend, and the onset risk indicated the age, period, and cohort effects.

Background. In the years 2020 and 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted Poland's health care system and caused a high number of excess deaths. After nearly 30 years of continuous dynamic increase in the life expectancy of the Polish population and a decrease in premature mortality that led to a reduction in the health gap between Poland and Western European countries, regrettably, a decline in life expectancy was recorded. For males, the decline amounted to 2.3 years and, for females, to 2.1 years. Aim. The aim of this study was to assess changes in the level of premature mortality due to selected cardiovascular diseases in Poland before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method. Time trends of deaths of patients under the age of 65 due to ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and aortic aneurysm were analyzed by gender and age groups. The joinpoint model was used in determining time trends. Results. Premature mortality due to all of the cardiovascular diseases analyzed had been declining steadily by about 5% per year since 2008. However, at the end of the second decade of the 21st century, a significant change in the dynamics of the trend was observed, particularly with regard to deaths from ischemic heart disease, which since 2018 caused premature mortality increases of 10% per year in the female population. In the male population, an increase of nearly 20% per year has been observed since 2019. The changes also affected premature mortality due to cerebrovascular disease. Conclusions. After nearly three decades of significant decline in premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Poland, there was a reversal in the trend, in particular as regards ischemic heart disease. The unfavorable changes intensified in the subsequent two years. The simultaneous increase in the number of cardiovascular incidents ending in death and the decline in access to prompt diagnosis and effective treatment may explain the unfavorable changes in the deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and the increase in premature mortality due to cardiovascular disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background This study examines the 20-year trend of suicide in 46 Muslim-majority countries throughout the world and compares their suicide rates and trends with the global average. Ecological-level associations between the proportion of the Muslim population, the age-standardized suicide rates, male-to-female suicide rate ratio, and the Human Development Index (HDI) in 2019 were examined. Methods Age-standardized suicide rates were extracted from the WHO Global Health Estimates database for the period between 2000 and 2019. The rates in each country were compared with the age-standardized global average during the past 20 years. The countries were further grouped according to their regions/sub-regions to calculate the regional and sub-regional weighted age-standardized suicide rates involving Muslim-majority countries. Correlation analyses were conducted between the proportion of Muslims, age-standardized suicide rate, male: female suicide rate ratio, and the HDI in all countries. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the age-standardized suicide rates in 2000-2019. Results The 46 countries retained for analysis included an estimated 1.39 billion Muslims from a total worldwide Muslim population of 1.57 billion. Of these countries, eleven (23.9%) had an age-standardized suicide rate above the global average in 2019. In terms of regional/sub-regional suicide rates, Muslim-majority countries in the Sub-Saharan region recorded the highest weighted average age-standardized suicide rate of 10.02/100,000 population, and Southeastern Asia recorded the lowest rate (2.58/100,000 population). There were significant correlations between the Muslim population proportion and male-to-female rate ratios (r=-0.324, p=0.028), HDI index and age-standardized suicide rates (r=-0.506, p

Previous studies associated high-level exposure to ultraviolet radiation with a greater risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). This study focuses on the changing incidence of CMM over time (from 1990 to 2017) in the Veneto region of Northeast Italy, and its Alpine area (the province of Belluno). The clinicopathological profile of CMM by residence is also considered. A joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify significant changes in the yearly incidence of CMM by sex and age. For each trend, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was also calculated. In the 2017 CMM cohort, the study includes a descriptive analysis of the disease’s categorical clinicopathological variables. In the population investigated, the incidence of CMM has increased significantly over the last 30 years. The AAPC in the incidence of CMM was significantly higher among Alpine residents aged 0–49 than for the rest of the region’s population (males: 6.9 versus 2.4; females 7.7 versus 2.7, respectively). Among the Alpine residents, the AAPC was 3.35 times greater for females aged 0–49 than for people aged 50+. The clinicopathological profile of CMM was significantly associated with the place of residence. Over three decades, the Veneto population has observed a significant increase in the incidence of CMM, and its AAPC. Both trends have been markedly more pronounced among Alpine residents, particularly younger females. While epidemiology and clinicopathological profiles support the role of UV radiation in CMM, the young age of this CMM-affected female population points to other possible host-related etiological factors. These findings also confirm the importance of primary and secondary prevention strategies.

Objective. To examine overall, sex, and state-specific liver cancer mortality trends in Mexico. Materials and meth­ods. Joinpoint regression was used to examine the trends in age-standardized mortality rates of liver cancer between 1998-2018. Estimated annual percent change with 95% confi­dence intervals (95%CI) were computed. Age-period-cohort models were used to assess the effects of age, calendar year, and birth cohort. Results. The state-specific mortality rates ranged from 3.34 (Aguascalientes) to 7.96 (Chiapas) per 100 000 person-years. Sex-specific rates were roughly equal, nationwide. Overall, we observed a statistically significant decrease in liver cancer mortality rates between 1998-2018 (annual percent change, -0.8%; 95%CI -1.0, -0.6). The overall age-period-cohort models suggest that birth cohort may be the most important factor driving the trends. Conclusions. While there was overall decline in liver cancer mortality, differences in rates by region were observed. The regional differences may inform future studies of liver cancer etiology across the country.

Background: Recent data have shown divergent trends in gastric cancer (GC) incidence between China and Japan; however, the cause for has not been explored. Methods: We retrieved GC incidence data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study, stratified by sex for both countries. We analyzed annual average percentage change (AAPC) via a joinpoint regression model and estimated the effects of age, period, and cohort via the age–period–cohort model. Results: The age‐standardized incidence rate trends for GC decreased in both countries and both sexes, but the reduction was more pronounced in Japan because the AAPC for Japanese males (AAPC = −2.65%; 95% CI, −2.98 to −2.32) was eight times greater than that of Chinese males (AAPC = −0.30%; 95% CI, −0.5 to −0.09). The age and cohort effects on the trend are similar in both countries: the risk of GC incidence increased with age among the Chinese and the Japanese but was lower among younger birth cohorts. The two countries showed contrasting trends over the study period; although the risk of GC rapidly decreased for Japanese males and females, it increased by twofold among Chinese males. Conclusions: The period effect is the main reason for the divergent trends in age‐standardized incidence rate for GC in China and Japan. By comparing national cancer control programs in both countries, we concluded that countries with a high prevalence of GC, such as China, can learn from Japan's experience in controlling GC by actively conducting national population screening, which is expected to facilitate both prevention and treatment of GC. Lay summary: More than one‐half of all new gastric cancer (GC) worldwide occur in China and Japan, but the reasons for the different incidence trends have not been thoroughly analyzed.Analysis using the age–period–cohort model confirmed that the cohort effect was the main reason for the decline in age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for GC and that the period effect may be the main reason for the divergent trends in gastric cancer ASIR in China and Japan. The period effect is the main reason for the divergent trends in gastric cancer incidence in China and Japan. Countries with a high prevalence of gastric cancer, such as China, can learn from Japan's experience of actively conducting national population cancer screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Española de Cardiología (18855857) is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: In December 2019, China released the first report of the coronavirus (COVID-19). On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized the COVID-19 as “pandemic”. The rapid occurrence of positive cases motivated this study to examine the trend of incidence cases. Methods: We used the data from the database of the Deputy of Health of Babol City and in Iran, the country report of definite cases of the disease that was reported to the World Health Organization had been used. This study was a cross-sectional study and the data from period of 56 weeks (from February 24, 2020 to March 20, 2021) were gathered. Descriptive analysis with SPSS20 and data classification with EXCEL2016 and Joinpoint regression with Joinpoint trend analysis software 4.9.0.0 identify the significant changes in the temporal trends of the outbreak. Results: In this study, 11341 patients with a mean age of 53.56 years, of whom 5865(51.5%) were males, were studied. Three waves of Covid19 were created. AWPC (average weekly percentage change) incidence rate with a slope of 2.7 was estimated for Babol and 6.2 for Iran. The incidence was higher in men in the first wave of 1887(55.6%) and so is the third 2373(50.1%), the average age in the third wave (50.92) was lower than the other waves as well. Conclusion: The incidence of coronavirus in men was higher in three waves and also the incidence was increasing in younger age groups. Also, due to the observance of health protocols and quarantine during the peak in Iran and Babol, we witnessed a decrease in incidence.

The aim of this study was to investigate the upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence trend in China from 1990 to 2019 with Joinpoint software and to evaluate the age effect, cohort effect, and period effect using the age–period–cohort model, with the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. The crude incidence rate (CR) of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China increased from 41.48/100,000 in 1990 to 62.64/100,000 in 2019, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was 1.42 (p < 0.05). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 50.77/100,000 to 37.42/100,000, and the AAPC was −1.12 (p < 0.05). The net drift was −0.83 (p < 0.05), and the local drifts in the 35–79 age groups of males and all age groups of females were less than 0 (p < 0.05). The age effect showed that the upper gastrointestinal cancer onset risk gradually increased with age, the period effect was fundamentally manifested as a downward trend in onset risk after 2000, and the cohort effect indicated the decreased onset risk of the overall birth cohort after 1926. The ASIR of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 showed a downward trend, and the onset risk indicated the age, period, and cohort effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In latest decades, mortality rates from ischemic heart disease (IHD) had declined steadily in most of the world as a consequence of improvements in prevention and therapy. Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze trends in mortality caused by IHD in the region of the Americas from 2000 to 2019. Methods: Estimates of the age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) due to IHD were extracted from the Data Portal on Noncommunicable Diseases, Mental Health, and External Causes (ENLACE), Pan American Health Organization. We used Joinpoint regression to analyze significant changes in mortality trends by country, gender, geographical sub-region, and country income, according to the World Bank classification. We also calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC) mortality rate for the overall period in the Americas as a whole and by country and sub-region. Results: In the region of the Americas, the AAMR from IHD decreased from 117.80 (95% uncertainty interval (UI)) 106.64–135.90) in 2000 to 73.64 (62.65–92.66) per 100,000 in 2019. In males, from 149.08 (95% UI 138.23–168.08) to 96.02 (95% UI 83.48–117.19) and in females 92.36 (95% UI 81.35–109.42) to 54.84 (95% UI 45.28–71.76). The AAPC mortality rate in the region decreased –2.5% (95% CI: –2.7, –2.3), with joinpoints in 2007 and 2012, –2.3% (95% CI: –2.5, –2.1) in men and –2.7% (95% CI: –3.0, –2.5) in women. According to the sub-region analysis, the highest decrease was recorded in North America, AAPC –3.1% (95% CI: –3.3, –3.0) with one joinpoint in 2011, whereas there was a stagnation of the mortality rate in Central America, Mexico, and Latin Caribbean with an AAPC of 0.1 (–0.2, 0.3) with one joinpoint in 2007. Conclusions: Age-adjusted mortality rate from IHD between 2000 and 2019 has decreased in the region of the Americas. However, different trends were observed, North America had the highest reduction in AAPC, while Central America, Mexico, and Latin Caribbean Region had a stagnation. This trend was highly influenced by country income.

Background: This study examines the 20-year trend of suicide in 46 Muslim-majority countries throughout the world and compares their suicide rates and trends with the global average. Ecological-level associations between the proportion of the Muslim population, the age-standardized suicide rates, male-to-female suicide rate ratio, and the Human Development Index (HDI) in 2019 were examined.Methods: Age-standardized suicide rates were extracted from the WHO Global Health Estimates database for the period between 2000 and 2019. The rates in each country were compared with the age-standardized global average during the past 20 years. The countries were further grouped according to their regions/sub-regions to calculate the regional and sub-regional weighted age-standardized suicide rates involving Muslim-majority countries. Correlation analyses were conducted between the proportion of Muslims, age-standardized suicide rate, male: female suicide rate ratio, and the HDI in all countries. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the age-standardized suicide rates in 2000-2019.Results: The 46 countries retained for analysis included an estimated 1.39 billion Muslims from a total worldwide Muslim population of 1.57 billion. Of these countries, eleven (23.9%) had an age-standardized suicide rate above the global average in 2019. In terms of regional/sub-regional suicide rates, Muslim-majority countries in the Sub-Saharan region recorded the highest weighted average age-standardized suicide rate of 10.02/100,000 population, and Southeastern Asia recorded the lowest rate (2.58/100,000 population). There were significant correlations between the Muslim population proportion and male-to-female rate ratios (r=-0.324, p=0.028), HDI index and age-standardized suicide rates (r=-0.506, p<0.001), and HDI index and male-to-female rate ratios (r=0.503, p<0.001) in 2019. Joinpoint analysis revealed that seven Muslim-majority countries (15.2%) recorded an increase in the average annual percentage change regarding age-standardized suicide rates during 2000-2019.Conclusions: Most Muslim-majority countries had lower age-standardized suicide rates than the global average, which might reflect religious belief and practice or due to Muslim laws in their judicial and social structure which may lead to underreporting. This finding needs further in-depth country and region-specific study with regard to its implication for public policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Brazil is a signatory to the World Health Organization End TB Strategy and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to characterize tuberculosis (TB) deaths and TB mortality rates in Brazil for the period 1997–2017. Methods We performed an ecological study based on information for TB deaths between 1997 and 2017 extracted from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Data included gender, age group and geographic regions. The trends in mortality rates were estimated using Joinpoint regression analysis, which identifies years in which there is a change in slope of the time series by the Monte Carlo permutation. Results Between 1997 and 2017 there were 104 172 recorded TB deaths in Brazil and the mortality rates were higher for men and the elderly. The age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 4.2 per 100 000 in 1997 to 3.0 per 100 000 in 2003 to 2.0 per 100 000 in 2017. The average percentage reduction from 1997 to 2003 was 6.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] −7.7 to −4.7) per year, while from 2003 to 2017 it was 3.0% (95% CI −3.4 to −2.5) per year, representing a slowdown in the rate of decline. Conclusion The high number of deaths and the slowdown in the decline of mortality rates from TB in Brazil maintain the disease as an important public health concern and an obstacle to reaching goals set by international commitments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Studies carried out on the incidence of lung cancer in the world and Southeast Asia region have shown varying trends. This is the first study in Sri Lanka after 2010 on trends of lung cancer. Objectives: To describe the trends in lung cancer incidence and patterns in Sri Lanka. Methods: All newly diagnosed 'trachea bronchus and lung' cancer patients in Sri Lanka during 2005-2019 included in the National Cancer Registry, Sri Lanka (NCR-SL) were analysed. Crude incidence rates (CR) and age standardized incidence rates (ASR) were compared using the Joinpoint regression program. Results: Data of 19 815 trachea bronchus and lung cancer patients (males=15292; 77.17%) were analysed. The joinpoint regression analysis observed a linear increasing trend of CR and ASR of lung cancer from 2005-2019. The proportional increase was higher for females (average annual percentage change (AAPC) of CR=8.5 and ASR=6.16) than males (AAPC of CR=5 .4 and ASR =3 .48) and the increase was statistically significant for both sexes. Conclusions & Recommendations: In Sri Lanka, the incidence of lung cancer has shown an increasing trend with a greater proportional rise in females. Although the increase could be partially explained by indoor air pollution, the rise could be due to other unknown factors, which warrants detailed studies on lung cancer in Sri Lanka.

This study was done to provide an overview of the latest trichomoniasis status in Korea by finding disease clusters and analyzing temporal trends during 2012-2020. Data were obtained from the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service (HIRA) of Korea. SaTScan and Joinpoint programs were used for statistical analyses. Gyeonggi-do had the highest average population and highest number of cases. The high incidence of T. vaginalis infections were observed among women aged 40-49 and 30-39 years (33,830/year and 33,179/year, respectively). Similarly, the 40-49 and 30-39 age group in men showed the highest average cases (1,319/year and 1,282/year, respectively). Jeollabuk-do was the most likely cluster, followed by Busan/Gyeongsangnam-do/Ulsan/Daegu and Jeju-do and Gwangju. Urban and rural differences were prominent. Trichomoniasis has decreased significantly in most clusters, except for Incheon. Trichomoniasis was decreasing in women recently after peaking around 2014. Men showed different trends according to age. Trichomoniasis was increasing in the 10-39 age groups, but decreasing in the 40-59 age groups. This study might provide an analytic basis for future health measures, policy-makers, and health authorities in developing effective system for prevention of trichomoniasis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Liver injury is an important identified risk for agomelatine and several measures were put in place to prevent and minimize such risk. The study aims to assess the impact of four interventions on the incidence of agomelatine use, particularly among patients aged ≥75 in Spain between 2011 and 2018. Methods: Quasi‐experimental interrupted time‐series analysis to examine data from a nationwide electronic healthcare record database (BIFAP). Quarterly cumulative incidence of agomelatine use per 100 000 patients was calculated and the impact of four regulatory interventions was quantified. Results: The incidence of agomelatine use decreased by 85% and 87% from first quarter 2011 to last quarter 2018 in patients below and above 75 years old, respectively. Regulatory actions taken were not associated with an immediate and significant falling level of use or slope. The incidence was less than expected 6 months after the first and third intervention for patients below and above 75 years old, and more than expected after the second and fourth intervention for both populations, though these analyses were underpowered to observe significant results. The downward trend became less pronounced, reaching a residual level of use, which remained stable in the last segment of the study period. Conclusion: New users of agomelatine decreased throughout the study period, starting before interventions took place. The effect of specific interventions might be masked by the progressive decrease tendency, constant over the study period. The effects of external factors that might overlap, unintended consequences, and issues concerning statistical modeling in situations where rates are already falling, should be considered when interpreting the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies associated high-level exposure to ultraviolet radiation with a greater risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). This study focuses on the changing incidence of CMM over time (from 1990 to 2017) in the Veneto region of Northeast Italy, and its Alpine area (the province of Belluno). The clinicopathological profile of CMM by residence is also considered. A joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify significant changes in the yearly incidence of CMM by sex and age. For each trend, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was also calculated. In the 2017 CMM cohort, the study includes a descriptive analysis of the disease's categorical clinicopathological variables. In the population investigated, the incidence of CMM has increased significantly over the last 30 years. The AAPC in the incidence of CMM was significantly higher among Alpine residents aged 0–49 than for the rest of the region's population (males: 6.9 versus 2.4; females 7.7 versus 2.7, respectively). Among the Alpine residents, the AAPC was 3.35 times greater for females aged 0–49 than for people aged 50+. The clinicopathological profile of CMM was significantly associated with the place of residence. Over three decades, the Veneto population has observed a significant increase in the incidence of CMM, and its AAPC. Both trends have been markedly more pronounced among Alpine residents, particularly younger females. While epidemiology and clinicopathological profiles support the role of UV radiation in CMM, the young age of this CMM-affected female population points to other possible host-related etiological factors. These findings also confirm the importance of primary and secondary prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objetive: To analyze the trends of COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020 by Federal Units (FU). Method: Ecological time-series based on cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 11 to May 12. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify points of inflection in COVID-19 trends, considering the days since the 50th confirmed case as time unit. Results: Brazil reached its 50th confirmed case of COVID-19 in 11 March 2020 and, 63 days after that, on May 12, 177,589 cases had been confirmed. The trends for all regions and FU are upward. In the last segment, from the 31st to the 63rd day, Brazil presented a daily percentage change (DPC) of 7.3% (95%CI= 7.2;7.5). For the country the average daily percentage change (ADPC) was 14.2% (95%CI: 13.8;14.5). The highest ADPC values were found in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions. Conclusions: In summary, our results show that all FUs in Brazil present upward trends of COVID-19. In some FUs, the slowdown in DPC in the last segment must be considered with caution. Each FU is at a different stage of the pandemic and, therefore, non-pharmacological measures should be adopted accordingly.

Objective: To understand post-pandemic interest in plastic surgery procedures via Joinpoint analysis of Google Trends search data., Methods: Google Trends was used to quantify search volumes from January 2019-December 2022 for select cosmetic face and body procedures in the United States. A keyword analytic tool (Keywords Everywhere) extracted absolute search volumes (average monthly searches). Joinpoint analysis assessed search trends over time reported as monthly percentage change (MPC)., Results: All procedures queried, including a non-cosmetic control (cataract surgery), demonstrated expected declines at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Blepharoplasty, face lift, neck lift, and Botox demonstrated statistically significant increase in search volumes that remained elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. Rhinoplasty, fillers, and abdominoplasty interest increased initially followed by return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022. The remainder of search terms did not show a clear temporal associated with COVID-19 lockdowns., Conclusion: The "Zoom Boom" appears to be a real phenomenon reflected by sustained increase in public interest in relation to facial plastic procedures., Level of Evidence: NA Laryngoscope, 2024., (© 2024 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.)

Background: In latest decades, mortality rates from ischemic heart disease (IHD) had declined steadily in most of the world as a consequence of improvements in prevention and therapy. Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze trends in mortality caused by IHD in the region of the Americas from 2000 to 2019. Methods: Estimates of the age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) due to IHD were extracted from the Data Portal on Noncommunicable Diseases, Mental Health, and External Causes (ENLACE), Pan American Health Organization. We used Joinpoint regression to analyze significant changes in mortality trends by country, gender, geographical sub-region, and country income, according to the World Bank classification. We also calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC) mortality rate for the overall period in the Americas as a whole and by country and sub-region. Results: In the region of the Americas, the AAMR from IHD decreased from 117.80 (95% uncertainty interval (UI)) 106.64--135.90) in 2000 to 73.64 (62.65--92.66) per 100,000 in 2019. In males, from 149.08 (95% UI 138.23--168.08) to 96.02 (95% UI 83.48--117.19) and in females 92.36 (95% UI 81.35--109.42) to 54.84 (95% UI 45.28-- 71.76). The AAPC mortality rate in the region decreased --2.5% (95% CI: --2.7, --2.3), with joinpoints in 2007 and 2012, --2.3% (95% CI: --2.5, --2.1) in men and --2.7% (95% CI: --3.0, --2.5) in women. According to the sub-region analysis, the highest decrease was recorded in North America, AAPC --3.1% (95% CI: --3.3, --3.0) with one joinpoint in 2011, whereas there was a stagnation of the mortality rate in Central America, Mexico, and Latin Caribbean with an AAPC of 0.1 (--0.2, 0.3) with one joinpoint in 2007. Conclusions: Age-adjusted mortality rate from IHD between 2000 and 2019 has decreased in the region of the Americas. However, different trends were observed, North America had the highest reduction in AAPC, while Central America, Mexico, and Latin Caribbean Region had a stagnation. This trend was highly influenced by country income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In December 2019, China released the first report of the coronavirus (COVID- 19). On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized the COVID- 19 as "pandemic". The rapid occurrence of positive cases motivated this study to examine the trend of incidence cases. Methods: We used the data from the database of the Deputy of Health of Babol City and in Iran, the country report of definite cases of the disease that was reported to the World Health Organization had been used. This study was a cross-sectional study and the data from period of 56 weeks (from February 24, 2020 to March 20, 2021) were gathered. Descriptive analysis with SPSS20 and data classification with EXCEL2016 and Joinpoint regression with Joinpoint trend analysis software 4.9.0.0 identify the significant changes in the temporal trends of the outbreak. Results: In this study, 11341 patients with a mean age of 53.56 years, of whom 5865(51.5%) were males, were studied. Three waves of Covid19 were created. AWPC (average weekly percentage change) incidence rate with a slope of 2.7 was estimated for Babol and 6.2 for Iran. The incidence was higher in men in the first wave of 1887(55.6%) and so is the third 2373(50.1%), the average age in the third wave (50.92) was lower than the other waves as well. Conclusion: The incidence of coronavirus in men was higher in three waves and also the incidence was increasing in younger age groups. Also, due to the observance of health protocols and quarantine during the peak in Iran and Babol, we witnessed a decrease in incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Salud Pública de México is the property of Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The escalating prevalence of IBD within specific age cohorts, 10–24 and 50–69 years, necessitates a refined understanding of its epidemiological patterns. Prior investigations have often been constrained by their limited scope, particularly in employing age-specific analyses and utilizing advanced statistical methods such as joinpoint regression. Our research examines these demographic segments to elucidate the epidemiological trajectory of IBD. This study analyzed GBD 2019 data on IBD, focusing on age groups 10–24 and 50–69. We integrated the socio-demographic index for socio-economic context and employed joinpoint regression to analyze time-segmented disease trends, prioritizing average annual percent change for a comprehensive view. A notable global decline in IBD incidence, particularly in the 50–69 age group, was observed. The 10–24 cohort, however, presented a marginal rise across three decades, with a discernible decline between 2010 and 2019. The study also revealed pivotal gender disparities, with increasing incidence rates in males, especially in the High-income Asia Pacific region. Conversely, females demonstrated decreasing trends across the board. Regional variations accentuated East Asia's escalated IBD incidence and prevalence, whereas high-income North American and Asia-Pacific regions, along with Europe, reflected the highest age-standardized incidence rates. The burden of IBD between 1990 and 2019 presents notable disparities across different regions and age demographics. While older populations are seeing a decrease in IBD incidence, young adults and adolescents in regions like East Asia and high-income Asia Pacific are experiencing a concerning uptick. This uneven distribution, influenced by both age and gender, underscores the multifaceted nature of IBD's global impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Chronic back disorders (CBD) are a global health problem and the leading cause of years lived with disability. The present study aims to examine overall and specific trends in CBD in the Canadian population aged 18 to 65 years. Methods Data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS), a cross-sectional study, from 2007 to 2014 (8 cycles) were used to calculate CBD prevalence across gender, age, geographical area (urban/rural and ten provinces and northern territories), and physical activity levels. CBD was defined in the CCHS as having back problems, excluding fibromyalgia and arthritis, which have lasted or are expected to last six months or more and that have been diagnosed by a health professional. Prevalence of CBD using survey weights and associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated yearly using balanced repeated replications technique. Trend tests were calculated using joinpoint regressions; ArcGIS software was used for mapping. Results Age-standardized CBD prevalence in 2007 and 2014 were 18.9% (95% CI = 18.4;19.5) and 17.8% (95% CI = 17.2,18.4), respectively. CBD prevalence was consistently higher in women, older age groups, rural dwellers, and people classified as inactive. Crude and age-standardized CBD prevalence decreased faster in people classified as physically active compared to those who were inactive (p

Background: The hand is the second most fractured region in children. It is therefore important to update fracture epidemiology to be able to identify time trends for adequate health care planning. This study reports pediatric hand fracture incidence 2014–2016 and, using published data, also long-term time trends in 1950–2016. Patients and methods: The Swedish city of Malmö, with 328,494 inhabitants in 2016, has only one hospital. We used the hospital radiological archive, medical charts, and diagnosis registry to identify hand fractures in city residents < 16 years in 2014–2016. These data were compared to those from three published studies that evaluated periods in 1950–2006. Differences between two periods were calculated as both unadjusted and age- and sex-adjusted incident rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We used joinpoint regression to estimate time trends during the entire period and present annual percent changes (APC) with 95% CI. Results: In 2014–2016 phalangeal fractures accounted for 71% of all hand fractures, metacarpal fractures for 24%, and carpal fractures for 5%. We identified 615 hand fractures (419 in boys and 196 in girls) during 181,617 person-years in 2014–2016, resulting in an unadjusted pediatric hand fracture incidence of 339/100,000 person-years (boys 452/100,000 person-years and girls 220/100,000 person-years). The age-adjusted incidence 2014–2016 was similar to 2005–2006, the most recently evaluated period (IRR in boys 0.9; 95% CI 0.8 to 1.01, and in girls 1.0; 95% CI 0.8 to 1.2). Looking at the entire period 1950–2016, we found that age-adjusted incidence increased in 1950–1979, in boys by APC + 3.8%; 95% CI 3.0 to 4.5 and in girls by + 3.9%; 95% CI 2.8 to 5.0, but decreased in 1979–2016, in boys by − 0.7%; 95% CI − 1.4 to − 0.003, and girls by − 1.3%; 95% CI − 2.4 to − 0.1. Conclusions: Phalangeal fractures accounted for about three quarters of all hand fractures. The age-adjusted hand fracture incidence increased in both sexes in 1950–1979 and decreased in 1979–2016. Level of evidence: III [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to investigate trends in suicide rates (SRs) among the elderly in China. Annual data on SRs among Chinese people ≥ the age of 65 were collected from China's Health Statistics Yearbook from 2002 to 2020. Then, data were stratified by age, region, and sex. Standardized SRs were calculated and analyzed using a conventional joinpoint regression model. Results revealed that overall, SRs among the elderly in China tended to decline from 2002-2020. Fluctuations in SRs, including in 2004-2005 due to the SARS epidemic, in 2009-2010 due to the economic crisis, and in 2019-2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, were also observed. Data suggested a relatively greater crude SR among the elderly ( vs. young people), in males ( vs. females), and in people living in a rural area ( vs. those living in an urban area). SRs tended to rise with age. Joinpoint regression analysis identified joinpoints only for males ages 65-69 and over the age of 85 living in a rural area, suggesting that individuals in these groups are more sensitive to negative stimuli and more likely to commit suicide, necessitating closer attention. The findings from this study should help to make policy and devise measures against suicide in the future., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (2024, National Center for Global Health and Medicine.)

Introduction: Tobacco products are the major contributors for various cancers and other diseases. In India, tobacco-related cancers (TRCs) contribute nearly half of the total cancers in males and one-fifth in females. Objective: The objective of the study is to investigate 25-year trends and projection of TRCs for 2018–2022. Methods: Joinpoint analysis was performed to assess the trends of TRCs on world age-adjusted rates. Age-period-cohort model with power link function was performed to project the future incidence burden of TRCs in urban Delhi. Results: During the 25 years, a total of 67,129 TRCs (53,125 males and 14,004 females) were registered which was 25.4% of total cancer cases registered. Males contributed 39.1% and females 10.8% of total cases. In males, TRCs declined significantly from 1988 to 2003 with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = −0.91% and thereafter increasing trend was observed with EAPC = 3.42%, while in females, the EAPC values were 2.2% and 3.54% respectively for the same period. The total burden of TRCs will be doubled in 2018–2022 with around 46% change due to cancer risk and around 54% due to population age and size in both the genders. The average annual count in males will be 7310 in 2018–2022 as compared to 3571 in 2008–2012 while in females this count will be increased to 2066 from 955 based on recent slope. Conclusion: The incidence of TRCs is increasing due to increase in population age, size, and factors other than population. TRCs are the preventable cancers, and load of these cancers can be controlled with strictly adhering the policy and acts.

Background: Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) epidemiology has not been examined previously in the nationwide Veterans Affairs (VA) population. Methods: Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to OPSCC cases identified from VA administrative data from 2000 to 2012. Results: We identified 12 125 OPSCC cases (incidence: 12.2 of 100 000 persons). OPSCC incidence declined between 2000 and 2006 (annual percent change [APC] = −4.27, P <.05), then increased between 2006 and 2012 (APC = 7.02, P <.05). Significant incidence increases occurred among white (APC = 7.19, P <.05) and African American (APC = 4.87, P <.05) Veterans and across all age cohorts. The percentage of never‐smokers increased from 8% in 2000 to 15.7% in 2012 (P <.001), and 2‐year overall survival improved from 31.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) [30‐33.4]) to 55.7% (95% CI [54.4‐57.1]). Conclusions: OPSCC incidence is increasing across all racial and age cohorts in the VA population. Smoking rates remain high among Veterans with OPSCC and gains in survival lag those reported in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To address change in the gender gap of life expectancy (GGLE) in Shanghai from 1973 to 2018, and to identify the major causes of death and age groups associated with the change over time.Methods: The temporal trend in GGLE was evaluated using retrospective demographic analysis with Joinpoint regression. Causes of death were coded in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases and mapped with the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) cause list. The life table technique and decomposition method were used to express changes in GGLE.Results: The trend of GGLE in Shanghai experienced two phases, i.e., a decrease from 8.4 to 4.2 years in the descent phase (1973-1999) and a fluctuation between 4.0 and 4.9 years in the plateau phase (1999-2018). The reduced age-specific mortality rates tended to concentrate to a narrower age range, from age 0-9 and above 30 years in the descent phase to age above 55 years in the plateau phase. Gastroesophageal and liver cancer, communicable, chronic respiratory, and digestive diseases were once the major contributors to narrow GGLE in the descent phase. While, importance should be attached to a widening effect on GGLE by lung cancer, cardiovascular diseases, other neoplasms like colorectal and pancreatic cancer, and diabetes in the recent plateau phase.Conclusions: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have made GGLE enter a plateau phase from a descent phase in Shanghai, China. Public efforts to reduce excess mortalities for male NCDs, cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in particular and health policies focused on the middle-aged and elderly population might further narrow GGLE. This will also ensure improvements in health and health equity in Shanghai China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Understanding secular trends of thyroid cancer is critical to plan strategies for cancer prevention and control. Our aim was to estimate the incidence and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in China during 2005–2015. Methods: A retrospective cohort evaluation of thyroid cancer cases and deaths during 2005–2015 was performed using population-based data from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. The incidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer were stratified by gender, age group (0, 1–4, 5–9, 10–14...80–84, 85–), and area (urban or rural). A Joinpoint regression model was used to examine secular trends. Results: In China, the age-standardized incidence was 3.21/105 in 2005, and increased to 9.61/105 in 2015. Besides, a significant increase incidence rate was observed with the average annual percent change (AAPC) of 12.4% (95% CI: 10.5%–14.4%) in the period 2005–2015. The age-standardized mortality was 0.30/105 in 2005 and 0.35/105 in 2015, and the AAPC was 2.9% (95% CI: 1.3%–4.5%). For both incidence and mortality, the rates of thyroid cancer were much higher in females than in males, and in urban areas rather than rural areas; however, the rates of increasing trends showed no significant differences. With respect to the highest age-specific rates, it appeared in the age group of 50–54 years old for incidence and in the age group of 80–84 years old for mortality. Notably, the rate of increasing incidence trend was lower in older age groups, especially for people aged 70–79 years old. Conclusion: A rapid increase in incidence and a moderate increase in mortality of thyroid cancer were observed from 2005 to 2015 in our study. Effective measures and tailored programs should be taken to curb the growth trend and reduce the disease burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study estimates the healthcare costs associated with breast cancer (BC) for different treatment phases (initial, intermediate, terminal) in Germany from the payer's perspective.Methods: The analysis uses claims data from the AOK Bayern covering 2011-2014 for continuously insured BC patients identified through inpatient and outpatient diagnoses. We calculate the healthcare costs attributable to BC using a control group design comparing the target population to a 1:2 matched control group adjusted for age, gender, and comorbidities. For incident and prevalent BC cases, we calculate age-standardized phase-specific incremental costs stratified by cost domain.Results: The initial, intermediate, and terminal phases comprise 3841, 28,315, and 1767 BC cases, respectively. BC-related incremental costs follow a u-shaped curve, with costs highest near diagnosis and death, and lower in between. With average costs of €33,237 per incident and €28,211 per prevalent case in the remaining 11 months before death, the highest BC-related incremental healthcare costs can be found in the terminal phase. In the initial phase, there were mean incremental costs of €21,455 the first 11 months after diagnosis. In the intermediate phase, incremental costs totaled €2851 per incident and €2387 per prevalent case per year. Healthcare costs decreased with age in most phases. The cost drivers depend on the treatment phase, with cytostatic drugs and inpatient treatment showing the highest economic impact in most phases.Conclusion: The study concludes that BC care costs impose a relevant economic burden on statutory health insurance and vary substantially depending on the treatment phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There are no studies on the trend of gastric cancer (GC) incidence in Kurdistan, a province in the west of Iran. We aimed to estimate the trend, age-standardized incidence rate (ASR), and annual percentage change (APC) of GC in this province during 2001-2014. Materials and Methods: The data of newly diagnosed GC patients were obtained from the regional Cancer Registering Database. The ASRs were calculated per 100,000 population during 2001-2014. Direct standardization and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by an efficient method. The temporary changes in ASRs were determined based on the APC by the joinpoint regression model. Results: Overall, 2225 newly diagnosed GC patients were identified. The ASRs ranged from 13.5 (95% CI: 10.4-17.3) to 29.0 (95% CI: 24.5-34.0). The highest ASRs were related to the men and women lived in Divandareh as 32.26 and 13.66, respectively. The respective APC value of GC incidence in women demonstrated a nonsignificant increase during 2001-2008 and a nonsignificant decrease during 2008-2014 (P = 0.1). Accordingly, the incidence of GC in men increased during 2001-2004 (P = 0.1) and decreased during 2004-2014 (P = 0.001). Conclusion: The incidence of GC showed nonsignificant and significant decreasing trends in women and men in Kurdistan province, respectively. Despite such decreasing trends, the Kurdistan province is still considered as one of the regions with high incidence of GC in Iran. Therefore, it is necessary to implement screening programs in the province to early diagnose GC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]