Red flag: Grade retention and student academic and behavioral outcomes in China.

• About 22% of middle school students report experiencing primary school retention. • Students in more rural and remote regions are more vulnerable to grade retention. • Retention is associated with poorer subsequent academic and psychosocial outcomes. • Causal analysis suggests that retention may signal but not cause poorer outcomes. This paper analyzes the prevalence, correlates, and behavioral and academic impacts of grade retention using national and single-province data from China. Retention is a more common experience in China than official estimates suggest; it is more frequent in less-developed parts of the country; and it is associated nationally with poorer subsequent performance and psychosocial well-being, even after adjusting for numerous confounders. However, with certain caveats, findings suggest that retention is primarily a "red flag" and is not a cause of poorer achievement and behavioral outcomes. A longitudinal analysis in one province shows that retained children can gain ground in academic and behavioral outcomes; a further causal analysis using matched samples and difference-in-difference approaches shows no evidence of a causal impact of retention on outcomes. High levels of population mobility and associated school transfers may contribute to grade retention being reported by students and families but not captured in school records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]