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Recent mathematical models have been developed to study the dynamics of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) under imatinib treatment. None of these models incorporates the anti-leukemia immune response. Recent experimental data show that imatinib treatment may promote the development of anti-leukemia immune responses as patients enter remission. Using these experimental data we develop a mathematical model to gain insights into the dynamics and potential impact of the resulting anti-leukemia immune response on CML. We model the immune response using a system of delay differential equations, where the delay term accounts for the duration of cell division. The mathematical model suggests that anti-leukemia T cell responses may play a critical role in maintaining CML patients in remission under imatinib therapy. Furthermore, it proposes a novel concept of an ''optimal load zone'' for leukemic cells in which the anti-leukemia immune response is most effective. Imatinib therapy may drive leukemic cell populations to enter and fall below this optimal load zone too rapidly to sustain the anti-leukemia T cell response. As a potential therapeutic strategy, the model shows that vaccination approaches in combination with imatinib therapy may optimally sustain the anti-leukemia T cell response to potentially eradicate residual leukemic cells for a durable cure of CML. The approach presented in this paper accounts for the role of the anti-leukemia specific immune response in the dynamics of CML. By combining experimental data and mathematical models, we demonstrate that persistence of anti-leukemia T cells even at low levels seems to prevent the leukemia from relapsing (for at least 50 months). As a consequence, we hypothesize that anti-leukemia T cell responses may help maintain remission under imatinib therapy. The mathematical model together with the new experimental data imply that there may be a feasible, low-risk, clinical approach to enhancing the effects of imatinib treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dendritic cells (DCs) are the most effective professional antigen-presenting cell. They ferry antigen from the extremities to T cells and are essential for the initiation of an adaptive immune response. Despite interest in how DCs respond to chemical stimuli, there have been few attempts to model DC migration. In this paper, we simulate the motility of DCs by modeling the generation of forces by filopodia and a force balance on the cell. The direction of fliopodial extension is coupled to differential occupancy of cognate chemokine receptors across the cell. Our model simulates chemokinesis and chemotaxis in a variety of chemical and mechanical environments. Simulated DCs undergoing chemokinesis were measured to have a speed of 5.1 ± 0.07 μm·min-1 and a persistence time of 3.2 ± 0.46 min, consistent with experiment. Cells undergoing chemotaxis exhibited a stronger chemotactic response when exposed to lower average chemokine concentrations, also consistent with experiment. We predicted that when placed in two opposing gradients, cells will cluster in a line, which we call the “line of equistimulation;” this clustering has also been observed. We calculated the effect of varying gradient steepness on the line of equistimulation, with steeper gradients resulting in tighter clustering. Moreover, gradients are found to be most potent when cells are in a gradient of chemokine whose mean concentration is close to the binding of the Kd to the receptor, and least potent when the mean concentration is 0.1Kd. Comparing our simulations to experiment, we can give a quantitative measure of the strength of certain chemokines relative to others. Assigning the signal of CCL19 binding CCR7 a baseline strength of 1, we found CCL21 binding CCR7 had a strength of 0.28, and CXCL12 binding CXCR4 had a strength of 0.30. These differences emerge despite both chemokines having virtually the same Kd, suggesting a mechanism of signal amplification in DCs requiring further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VID) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VID problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GA, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The collection of immunoglobulin genes in an individual’s germline, which gives rise to B cell receptors via recombination, is known to vary significantly across individuals. In humans, for example, each individual has only a fraction of the several hundred known V alleles. Furthermore, the currently-accepted set of known V alleles is both incomplete (particularly for non-European samples), and contains a significant number of spurious alleles. The resulting uncertainty as to which immunoglobulin alleles are present in any given sample results in inaccurate B cell receptor sequence annotations, and in particular inaccurate inferred naive ancestors. In this paper we first show that the currently widespread practice of aligning each sequence to its closest match in the full set of IMGT alleles results in a very large number of spurious alleles that are not in the sample’s true set of germline V alleles. We then describe a new method for inferring each individual’s germline gene set from deep sequencing data, and show that it improves upon existing methods by making a detailed comparison on a variety of simulated and real data samples. This new method has been integrated into the partis annotation and clonal family inference package, available at , and is run by default without affecting overall run time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

B cells develop high affinity receptors during the course of affinity maturation, a cyclic process of mutation and selection. At the end of affinity maturation, a number of cells sharing the same ancestor (i.e. in the same “clonal family”) are released from the germinal center; their amino acid frequency profile reflects the allowed and disallowed substitutions at each position. These clonal-family-specific frequency profiles, called “substitution profiles”, are useful for studying the course of affinity maturation as well as for antibody engineering purposes. However, most often only a single sequence is recovered from each clonal family in a sequencing experiment, making it impossible to construct a clonal-family-specific substitution profile. Given the public release of many high-quality large B cell receptor datasets, one may ask whether it is possible to use such data in a prediction model for clonal-family-specific substitution profiles. In this paper, we present the method “Substitution Profiles Using Related Families” (SPURF), a penalized tensor regression framework that integrates information from a rich assemblage of datasets to predict the clonal-family-specific substitution profile for any single input sequence. Using this framework, we show that substitution profiles from similar clonal families can be leveraged together with simulated substitution profiles and germline gene sequence information to improve prediction. We fit this model on a large public dataset and validate the robustness of our approach on two external datasets. Furthermore, we provide a command-line tool in an open-source software package () implementing these ideas and providing easy prediction using our pre-fit models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Viral infections are one of the major causes of death worldwide, with HIV infection alone resulting in over 1.2 million casualties per year. Antiviral drugs are now being administered for a variety of viral infections, including HIV, hepatitis B and C, and influenza. These therapies target a specific phase of the virus’s life cycle, yet their ultimate success depends on a variety of factors, such as adherence to a prescribed regimen and the emergence of viral drug resistance. The epidemiology and evolution of drug resistance have been extensively characterized, and it is generally assumed that drug resistance arises from mutations that alter the virus’s susceptibility to the direct action of the drug. In this paper, we consider the possibility that a virus population can evolve towards synchronizing its life cycle with the pattern of drug therapy. The periodicity of the drug treatment could then allow for a virus strain whose life cycle length is a multiple of the dosing interval to replicate only when the concentration of the drug is lowest. This process, referred to as “drug tolerance by synchronization”, could allow the virus population to maximize its overall fitness without having to alter drug binding or complete its life cycle in the drug’s presence. We use mathematical models and stochastic simulations to show that life cycle synchronization can indeed be a mechanism of viral drug tolerance. We show that this effect is more likely to occur when the variability in both viral life cycle and drug dose timing are low. More generally, we find that in the presence of periodic drug levels, time-averaged calculations of viral fitness do not accurately predict drug levels needed to eradicate infection, even if there is no synchronization. We derive an analytical expression for viral fitness that is sufficient to explain the drug-pattern-dependent survival of strains with any life cycle length. We discuss the implications of these findings for clinically relevant antiviral strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified tens of thousands of genetic variants associated with hundreds of phenotypes and diseases, which have provided clinical and medical benefits to patients with novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets. However, identification of risk variants associated with complex diseases remains challenging as they are often affected by many genetic variants with small or moderate effects. There has been accumulating evidence suggesting that different complex traits share common risk basis, namely pleiotropy. Recently, several statistical methods have been developed to improve statistical power to identify risk variants for complex traits through a joint analysis of multiple GWAS datasets by leveraging pleiotropy. While these methods were shown to improve statistical power for association mapping compared to separate analyses, they are still limited in the number of phenotypes that can be integrated. In order to address this challenge, in this paper, we propose a novel statistical framework, graph-GPA, to integrate a large number of GWAS datasets for multiple phenotypes using a hidden Markov random field approach. Application of graph-GPA to a joint analysis of GWAS datasets for 12 phenotypes shows that graph-GPA improves statistical power to identify risk variants compared to statistical methods based on smaller number of GWAS datasets. In addition, graph-GPA also promotes better understanding of genetic mechanisms shared among phenotypes, which can potentially be useful for the development of improved diagnosis and therapeutics. The R implementation of graph-GPA is currently available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ancestral state reconstruction in Bayesian phylogeography of virus pandemics have been improved by utilizing a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) framework. Recently, this framework has been extended to model the transition rate matrix between discrete states as a generalized linear model (GLM) of genetic, geographic, demographic, and environmental predictors of interest to the virus and incorporating BSSVS to estimate the posterior inclusion probabilities of each predictor. Although the latter appears to enhance the biological validity of ancestral state reconstruction, there has yet to be a comparison of phylogenies created by the two methods. In this paper, we compare these two methods, while also using a primitive method without BSSVS, and highlight the differences in phylogenies created by each. We test six coalescent priors and six random sequence samples of H3N2 influenza during the 2014–15 flu season in the U.S. We show that the GLMs yield significantly greater root state posterior probabilities than the two alternative methods under five of the six priors, and significantly greater Kullback-Leibler divergence values than the two alternative methods under all priors. Furthermore, the GLMs strongly implicate temperature and precipitation as driving forces of this flu season and nearly unanimously identified a single root state, which exhibits the most tropical climate during a typical flu season in the U.S. The GLM, however, appears to be highly susceptible to sampling bias compared with the other methods, which casts doubt on whether its reconstructions should be favored over those created by alternate methods. We report that a BSSVS approach with a Poisson prior demonstrates less bias toward sample size under certain conditions than the GLMs or primitive models, and believe that the connection between reconstruction method and sampling bias warrants further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human immune system depends on a highly diverse collection of antibody-making B cells. B cell receptor sequence diversity is generated by a random recombination process called “rearrangement” forming progenitor B cells, then a Darwinian process of lineage diversification and selection called “affinity maturation.” The resulting receptors can be sequenced in high throughput for research and diagnostics. Such a collection of sequences contains a mixture of various lineages, each of which may be quite numerous, or may consist of only a single member. As a step to understanding the process and result of this diversification, one may wish to reconstruct lineage membership, i.e. to cluster sampled sequences according to which came from the same rearrangement events. We call this clustering problem “clonal family inference.” In this paper we describe and validate a likelihood-based framework for clonal family inference based on a multi-hidden Markov Model (multi-HMM) framework for B cell receptor sequences. We describe an agglomerative algorithm to find a maximum likelihood clustering, two approximate algorithms with various trade-offs of speed versus accuracy, and a third, fast algorithm for finding specific lineages. We show that under simulation these algorithms greatly improve upon existing clonal family inference methods, and that they also give significantly different clusters than previous methods when applied to two real data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce a fully flexible coarse-grained model of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies parametrized directly on cryo-EM data and simulate the binding dynamics of many IgGs to antigens adsorbed on a surface at increasing densities. Moreover, we work out a theoretical model that allows to explain all the features observed in the simulations. Our combined computational and theoretical framework is in excellent agreement with surface-plasmon resonance data and allows us to establish a number of important results. (i) Internal flexibility is key to maximize bivalent binding, flexible IgGs being able to explore the surface with their second arm in search for an available hapten. This is made clear by the strongly reduced ability to bind with both arms displayed by artificial IgGs designed to rigidly keep a prescribed shape. (ii) The large size of IgGs is instrumental to keep neighboring molecules at a certain distance (surface repulsion), which essentially makes antigens within reach of the second Fab always unoccupied on average. (iii) One needs to account independently for the thermodynamic and geometric factors that regulate the binding equilibrium. The key geometrical parameters, besides excluded-volume repulsion, describe the screening of free haptens by neighboring bound antibodies. We prove that the thermodynamic parameters govern the low-antigen-concentration regime, while the surface screening and repulsion only affect the binding at high hapten densities. Importantly, we prove that screening effects are concealed in relative measures, such as the fraction of bivalently bound antibodies. Overall, our model provides a valuable, accurate theoretical paradigm beyond existing frameworks to interpret experimental profiles of antibodies binding to multi-valent surfaces of different sorts in many contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simian Foamy Virus (SFV) can be transmitted from non-human primates (NHP) to humans. However, there are no documented cases of human to human transmission, and significant differences exist between infection in NHP and human hosts. The mechanism for these between-host differences is not completely understood. In this paper we develop a new Bayesian approach to the detection of APOBEC3-mediated hypermutation, and use it to compare SFV sequences from human and NHP hosts living in close proximity in Bangladesh. We find that human APOBEC3G can induce genetic changes that may prevent SFV replication in infected humans in vivo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution HLA typing plays a central role in many areas of immunology, such as in identifying immunogenetic risk factors for disease, in studying how the genomes of pathogens evolve in response to immune selection pressures, and also in vaccine design, where identification of HLA-restricted epitopes may be used to guide the selection of vaccine immunogens. Perhaps one of the most immediate applications is in direct medical decisions concerning the matching of stem cell transplant donors to unrelated recipients. However, high-resolution HLA typing is frequently unavailable due to its high cost or the inability to re-type historical data. In this paper, we introduce and evaluate a method for statistical, in silico refinement of ambiguous and/or low-resolution HLA data. Our method, which requires an independent, high-resolution training data set drawn from the same population as the data to be refined, uses linkage disequilibrium in HLA haplotypes as well as four-digit allele frequency data to probabilistically refine HLA typings. Central to our approach is the use of haplotype inference. We introduce new methodology to this area, improving upon the Expectation-Maximization (EM)- based approaches currently used within the HLA community. Our improvements are achieved by using a parsimonious parameterization for haplotype distributions and by smoothing the maximum likelihood (ML) solution. These improvements make it possible to scale the refinement to a larger number of alleles and loci in a more computationally efficient and stable manner. We also show how to augment our method in order to incorporate ethnicity information (as HLA allele distributions vary widely according to race/ethnicity as well as geographic area), and demonstrate the potential utility of this experimentally. A tool based on our approach is freely available for research purposes at http://microsoft.com/science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic risk prediction is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Accurate prediction models will have great impacts on both disease prevention and early treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome wide association studies (GWAS), genetic risk prediction accuracy remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes in the presence of linkage disequilibrium. In this paper, we introduce AnnoPred, a principled framework that leverages diverse types of genomic and epigenomic functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. AnnoPred is trained using GWAS summary statistics in a Bayesian framework in which we explicitly model various functional annotations and allow for linkage disequilibrium estimated from reference genotype data. Compared with state-of-the-art risk prediction methods, AnnoPred achieves consistently improved prediction accuracy in both extensive simulations and real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During early human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection multiple CD8+ T cell responses are elicited almost simultaneously. These responses exert strong selective pressures on different parts of HIV’s genome, and select for mutations that escape recognition and are thus beneficial to the virus. Some studies reveal that the later these escape mutations emerge, the more slowly they go to fixation. This pattern of escape rate decrease(ERD) can arise by distinct mechanisms. In particular, in large populations with high beneficial mutation rates interference among different escape strains –an effect that can emerge in evolution with asexual reproduction and results in delayed fixation times of beneficial mutations compared to sexual reproduction– could significantly impact the escape rates of mutations. In this paper, we investigated how interference between these concurrent escape mutations affects their escape rates in systems with multiple epitopes, and whether it could be a source of the ERD pattern. To address these issues, we developed a multilocus Wright-Fisher model of HIV dynamics with selection, mutation and recombination, serving as a null-model for interference. We also derived an interference-free null model assuming initial neutral evolution before immune response elicitation. We found that interference between several equally selectively advantageous mutations can generate the observed ERD pattern. We also found that the number of loci, as well as recombination rates substantially affect ERD. These effects can be explained by the underexponential decline of escape rates over time. Lastly, we found that the observed ERD pattern in HIV infected individuals is consistent with both independent, interference-free mutations as well as interference effects. Our results confirm that interference effects should be considered when analyzing HIV escape mutations. The challenge in estimating escape rates and mutation-associated selective coefficients posed by interference effects cannot simply be overcome by improved sampling frequencies or sizes. This problem is a consequence of the fundamental shortcomings of current estimation techniques under interference regimes. Hence, accounting for the stochastic nature of competition between mutations demands novel estimation methodologies based on the analysis of HIV strains, rather than mutation frequencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease endemic in tropical regions of Africa, where 90% of the global burden occurs, and Latin America. It is notoriously under-reported with uncertainty arising from a complex transmission cycle including a sylvatic reservoir and non-specific symptom set. Resulting estimates of burden, particularly in Africa, are highly uncertain. We examine two established models of yellow fever transmission within a Bayesian model averaging framework in order to assess the relative evidence for each model’s assumptions and to highlight possible data gaps. Our models assume contrasting scenarios of the yellow fever transmission cycle in Africa. The first takes the force of infection in each province to be static across the observation period; this is synonymous with a constant infection pressure from the sylvatic reservoir. The second model assumes the majority of transmission results from the urban cycle; in this case, the force of infection is dynamic and defined through a fixed value of R0 in each province. Both models are coupled to a generalised linear model of yellow fever occurrence which uses environmental covariates to allow us to estimate transmission intensity in areas where data is sparse. We compare these contrasting descriptions of transmission through a Bayesian framework and trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in order to assess each model’s evidence given the range of uncertainty in parameter values. The resulting estimates allow us to produce Bayesian model averaged predictions of yellow fever burden across the African endemic region. We find strong support for the static force of infection model which suggests a higher proportion of yellow fever transmission occurs as a result of infection from an external source such as the sylvatic reservoir. However, the model comparison highlights key data gaps in serological surveys across the African endemic region. As such, conclusions concerning the most prevalent transmission routes for yellow fever will be limited by the sparsity of data which is particularly evident in the areas with highest predicted transmission intensity. Our model and estimation approach provides a robust framework for model comparison and predicting yellow fever burden in Africa. However, key data gaps increase uncertainty surrounding estimates of model parameters and evidence. As more mathematical models are developed to address new research questions, it is increasingly important to compare them with established modelling approaches to highlight uncertainty in structures and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in American men. Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has become a standard treatment strategy for advanced PCa. Although a majority of patients initially respond to ADT well, most of them will eventually develop castration-resistant PCa (CRPC). Previous studies suggest that ADT-induced changes in the immune microenvironment (mE) in PCa might be responsible for the failures of various therapies. However, the role of the immune system in CRPC development remains unclear. To systematically understand the immunity leading to CRPC progression and predict the optimal treatment strategy in silico, we developed a 3D Hybrid Multi-scale Model (HMSM), consisting of an ODE system and an agent-based model (ABM), to manipulate the tumor growth in a defined immune system. Based on our analysis, we revealed that the key factors (e.g. WNT5A, TRAIL, CSF1, etc.) mediated the activation of PC-Treg and PC-TAM interaction pathways, which induced the immunosuppression during CRPC progression. Our HMSM model also provided an optimal therapeutic strategy for improving the outcomes of PCa treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of anticompetitor toxins is widespread among bacteria. Because production of such toxins is costly, it is typically regulated. In particular, many toxins are produced only when the local cell density is high. It is unclear which selection pressures shaped the evolution of density-dependent regulation of toxin production. Here, we study the evolution of toxin production, resistance and the response to a cell-density cue in a model of an evolving bacterial population with spatial structure. We present results for two growth regimes: (i) an undisturbed, fixed habitat in which only small fluctuations of cell density occur, and (ii) a serial-transfer regime with large fluctuations in cell density. We find that density-dependent toxin production can evolve under both regimes. However, the selection pressures driving the evolution of regulation differ. In the fixed habitat, regulation evolves because it allows cells to produce toxin only when opportunities for reproduction are highly limited (because of a high local cell density), and the effective fitness costs of toxin production are hence low. Under serial transfers, regulation evolves because it allows cells to switch from a fast-growing non-toxic phenotype when colonising a new habitat, to a slower-growing competitive toxic phenotype when the cell density increases. Colonies of such regulating cells rapidly expand into unoccupied space because their edges consist of fast-growing, non-toxin-producing cells, but are also combative because cells at the interfaces with competing colonies do produce toxin. Because under the two growth regimes different types of regulation evolve, our results underscore the importance of growth conditions in the evolution of social behaviour in bacteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antibodies developed for research and clinical applications may exhibit suboptimal stability, expressibility, or affinity. Existing optimization strategies focus on surface mutations, whereas natural affinity maturation also introduces mutations in the antibody core, simultaneously improving stability and affinity. To systematically map the mutational tolerance of an antibody variable fragment (Fv), we performed yeast display and applied deep mutational scanning to an anti-lysozyme antibody and found that many of the affinity-enhancing mutations clustered at the variable light-heavy chain interface, within the antibody core. Rosetta design combined enhancing mutations, yielding a variant with tenfold higher affinity and substantially improved stability. To make this approach broadly accessible, we developed AbLIFT, an automated web server that designs multipoint core mutations to improve contacts between specific Fv light and heavy chains (). We applied AbLIFT to two unrelated antibodies targeting the human antigens VEGF and QSOX1. Strikingly, the designs improved stability, affinity, and expression yields. The results provide proof-of-principle for bypassing laborious cycles of antibody engineering through automated computational affinity and stability design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Suspension of therapy is followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. However, there is significant heterogeneity in speed of rebound, with some rebounds occurring within days, weeks, or sometimes years. We present a stochastic mathematical model to gain insight into these post-treatment dynamics, specifically characterizing the dynamics of short term viral rebounds (≤ 60 days). Li et al. (2016) report that the size of the expressed HIV reservoir, i.e., cell-associated HIV RNA levels, and drug regimen correlate with the time between ART suspension and viral rebound to detectable levels. We incorporate this information and viral rebound times to parametrize our model. We then investigate insights offered by our model into the underlying dynamics of the latent reservoir. In particular, we refine previous estimates of viral recrudescence after ART interruption by accounting for heterogeneity in infection rebound dynamics, and determine a recrudescence rate of once every 2-4 days. Our parametrized model can be used to aid in design of clinical trials to study viral dynamics following analytic treatment interruption. We show how to derive informative personalized testing frequencies from our model and offer a proof-of-concept example. Our results represent first steps towards a model that can make predictions on a person living with HIV (PLWH)’s rebound time distribution based on biomarkers, and help identify PLWH with long viral rebound delays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Replicating recombinant vector vaccines consist of a fully competent viral vector backbone engineered to express an antigen from a foreign transgene. From the perspective of viral replication, the transgene is not only dispensable but may even be detrimental. Thus vaccine revertants that delete or inactivate the transgene may evolve to dominate the vaccine virus population both during the process of manufacture of the vaccine as well as during the course of host infection. A particular concern is that this vaccine evolution could reduce its antigenicity—the immunity elicited to the transgene. We use mathematical and computational models to study vaccine evolution and immunity. These models include evolution arising during the process of manufacture, the dynamics of vaccine and revertant growth, plus innate and adaptive immunity elicited during the course of infection. Although the selective basis of vaccine evolution is easy to comprehend, the immunological consequences are not. One complication is that the opportunity for vaccine evolution is limited by the short period of within-host growth before the viral population is cleared. Even less obvious, revertant growth may only weakly interfere with vaccine growth in the host and thus have a limited effect on immunity to vaccine. Overall, we find that within-host vaccine evolution can sometimes compromise vaccine immunity, but only when the extent of evolution during vaccine manufacture is severe, and this evolution can be easily avoided or mitigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical models have been used successfully at diverse scales of biological organization, ranging from ecology and population dynamics to stochastic reaction events occurring between individual molecules in single cells. Generally, many biological processes unfold across multiple scales, with mutations being the best studied example of how stochasticity at the molecular scale can influence outcomes at the population scale. In many other contexts, however, an analogous link between micro- and macro-scale remains elusive, primarily due to the challenges involved in setting up and analyzing multi-scale models. Here, we employ such a model to investigate how stochasticity propagates from individual biochemical reaction events in the bacterial innate immune system to the ecology of bacteria and bacterial viruses. We show analytically how the dynamics of bacterial populations are shaped by the activities of immunity-conferring enzymes in single cells and how the ecological consequences imply optimal bacterial defense strategies against viruses. Our results suggest that bacterial populations in the presence of viruses can either optimize their initial growth rate or their population size, with the first strategy favoring simple immunity featuring a single restriction modification system and the second strategy favoring complex bacterial innate immunity featuring several simultaneously active restriction modification systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis by liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) can identify and quantify thousands of proteins in microgram-level samples, such as those comprised of thousands of cells. This process, however, remains challenging for smaller samples, such as the proteomes of single mammalian cells, because reduced protein levels reduce the number of confidently sequenced peptides. To alleviate this reduction, we developed Data-driven Alignment of Retention Times for IDentification (DART-ID). DART-ID implements principled Bayesian frameworks for global retention time (RT) alignment and for incorporating RT estimates towards improved confidence estimates of peptide-spectrum-matches. When applied to bulk or to single-cell samples, DART-ID increased the number of data points by 30–50% at 1% FDR, and thus decreased missing data. Benchmarks indicate excellent quantification of peptides upgraded by DART-ID and support their utility for quantitative analysis, such as identifying cell types and cell-type specific proteins. The additional datapoints provided by DART-ID boost the statistical power and double the number of proteins identified as differentially abundant in monocytes and T-cells. DART-ID can be applied to diverse experimental designs and is freely available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many complex diseases such as cancer are associated with multiple pathological manifestations. Moreover, the therapeutics for their treatments often lead to serious side effects. Thus, it is needed to develop multi-indication therapeutics that can simultaneously target multiple clinical indications of interest and mitigate the side effects. However, conventional one-drug-one-gene drug discovery paradigm and emerging polypharmacology approach rarely tackle the challenge of multi-indication drug design. For the first time, we propose a one-drug-multi-target-multi-indication strategy. We develop a novel structural systems pharmacology platform 3D-REMAP that uses ligand binding site comparison and protein-ligand docking to augment sparse chemical genomics data for the machine learning model of genome-scale chemical-protein interaction prediction. Experimentally validated predictions systematically show that 3D-REMAP outperforms state-of-the-art ligand-based, receptor-based, and machine learning methods alone. As a proof-of-concept, we utilize the concept of drug repurposing that is enabled by 3D-REMAP to design dual-indication anti-cancer therapy. The repurposed drug can demonstrate anti-cancer activity for cancers that do not have effective treatment as well as reduce the risk of heart failure that is associated with all types of existing anti-cancer therapies. We predict that levosimendan, a PDE inhibitor for heart failure, inhibits serine/threonine-protein kinase RIOK1 and other kinases. Subsequent experiments and systems biology analyses confirm this prediction, and suggest that levosimendan is active against multiple cancers, notably lymphoma, through the direct inhibition of RIOK1 and RNA processing pathway. We further develop machine learning models to predict cancer cell-line’s and a patient’s response to levosimendan. Our findings suggest that levosimendan can be a promising novel lead compound for the development of safe, effective, and precision multi-indication anti-cancer therapy. This study demonstrates the potential of structural systems pharmacology in designing polypharmacology for precision medicine. It may facilitate transforming the conventional one-drug-one-gene-one-disease drug discovery process and single-indication polypharmacology approach into a new one-drug-multi-target-multi-indication paradigm for complex diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of a mass vaccination program can engender its own undoing if individuals choose to not get vaccinated believing that they are already protected by herd immunity. This would appear to be the optimal decision for an individual, based on a strategic appraisal of her costs and benefits, even though she would be vulnerable during subsequent outbreaks if the majority of the population argues in this manner. We investigate how voluntary vaccination can nevertheless emerge in a social network of rational agents, who make informed decisions whether to be vaccinated, integrated with a model of epidemic dynamics. The information available to each agent includes the prevalence of the disease in their local network neighborhood and/or globally in the population, as well as the fraction of their neighbors that are protected against the disease. Crucially, the payoffs governing the decision of agents vary with disease prevalence, resulting in the vaccine uptake behavior changing in response to contagion spreading. The collective behavior of the agents responding to local prevalence can lead to a significant reduction in the final epidemic size, particularly for less contagious diseases having low basic reproduction number . Near the epidemic threshold () the use of local prevalence information can result in divergent responses in the final vaccine coverage. Our results suggest that heterogeneity in the risk perception resulting from the spatio-temporal evolution of an epidemic differentially affects agents’ payoffs, which is a critical determinant of the success of voluntary vaccination schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging and re-emerging pathogens exhibit very complex dynamics, are hard to model and difficult to predict. Their dynamics might appear intractable. However, new statistical approaches—rooted in dynamical systems and the theory of stochastic processes—have yielded insight into the dynamics of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. We argue that these approaches may lead to new methods for predicting epidemics. This perspective views pathogen emergence and re-emergence as a “critical transition,” and uses the concept of noisy dynamic bifurcation to understand the relationship between the system observables and the distance to this transition. Because the system dynamics exhibit characteristic fluctuations in response to perturbations for a system in the vicinity of a critical point, we propose this information may be harnessed to develop early warning signals. Specifically, the motion of perturbations slows as the system approaches the transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gene-expression deconvolution is used to quantify different types of cells in a mixed population. It provides a highly promising solution to rapidly characterize the tumor-infiltrating immune landscape and identify cold cancers. However, a major challenge is that gene-expression data are frequently contaminated by many outliers that decrease the estimation accuracy. Thus, it is imperative to develop a robust deconvolution method that automatically decontaminates data by reliably detecting and removing outliers. We developed a new machine learning tool, ast nd obust convolution of xpression rofiles (FARDEEP), to enumerate immune cell subsets from whole tumor tissue samples. To reduce noise in the tumor gene expression datasets, FARDEEP utilizes an adaptive least trimmed square to automatically detect and remove outliers before estimating the cell compositions. We show that FARDEEP is less susceptible to outliers and returns a better estimation of coefficients than the existing methods with both numerical simulations and real datasets. FARDEEP provides an estimate related to the absolute quantity of each immune cell subset in addition to relative percentages. Hence, FARDEEP represents a novel robust algorithm to complement the existing toolkit for the characterization of tissue-infiltrating immune cell landscape. The source code for FARDEEP is implemented in R and available for download at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV is a highly mutable virus for which all attempts to develop a vaccine have been unsuccessful. Nevertheless, few long-infected patients develop antibodies, called broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs), that have a high breadth and can neutralize multiple variants of the virus. This suggests that a universal HIV vaccine should be possible. A measure of the efficacy of a HIV vaccine is the neutralization breadth of the antibodies it generates. The breadth is defined as the fraction of viruses in the Seaman panel that are neutralized by the antibody. Experimentally the neutralization ability is measured as the half maximal inhibitory concentration of the antibody (IC50). To avoid such time-consuming experimental measurements, we developed a computational approach to estimate the IC50 and use it to determine the antibody breadth. Given that no direct method exists for calculating IC50 values, we resort to a combination of atomistic modeling and machine learning. For each antibody/virus complex, an all-atoms model is built using the amino acid sequence and a known structure of a related complex. Then a series of descriptors are derived from the atomistic models, and these are used to train a Multi-Layer Perceptron (an Artificial Neural Network) to predict the value of the IC50 (by regression), or if the antibody binds or not to the virus (by classification). The neural networks are trained by use of experimental IC50 values collected in the CATNAP database. The computed breadths obtained by regression and classification are reported and the importance of having some related information in the data set for obtaining accurate predictions is analyzed. This approach is expected to prove useful for the design of HIV bnAbs, where the computation of the potency must be accompanied by a computation of the breadth, and for evaluating the efficiency of potential vaccination schemes developed through modeling and simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small sample sizes combined with high person-to-person variability can make it difficult to detect significant gene expression changes from transcriptional profiling studies. Subtle, but coordinated, gene expression changes may be detected using gene set analysis approaches. Meta-analysis is another approach to increase the power to detect biologically relevant changes by integrating information from multiple studies. Here, we present a framework that combines both approaches and allows for meta-analysis of gene sets. QuSAGE meta-analysis extends our previously published QuSAGE framework, which offers several advantages for gene set analysis, including fully accounting for gene-gene correlations and quantifying gene set activity as a full probability density function. Application of QuSAGE meta-analysis to influenza vaccination response shows it can detect significant activity that is not apparent in individual studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human networks of sexual contacts are dynamic by nature, with partnerships forming and breaking continuously over time. Sexual behaviours are also highly heterogeneous, so that the number of partners reported by individuals over a given period of time is typically distributed as a power-law. Both the dynamism and heterogeneity of sexual partnerships are likely to have an effect in the patterns of spread of sexually transmitted diseases. To represent these two fundamental properties of sexual networks, we developed a stochastic process of dynamic partnership formation and dissolution, which results in power-law numbers of partners over time. Model parameters can be set to produce realistic conditions in terms of the exponent of the power-law distribution, of the number of individuals without relationships and of the average duration of relationships. Using an outbreak of antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea amongst men have sex with men as a case study, we show that our realistic dynamic network exhibits different properties compared to the frequently used static networks or homogeneous mixing models. We also consider an approximation to our dynamic network model in terms of a much simpler branching process. We estimate the parameters of the generation time distribution and offspring distribution which can be used for example in the context of outbreak reconstruction based on genomic data. Finally, we investigate the impact of a range of interventions against gonorrhoea, including increased condom use, more frequent screening and immunisation, concluding that the latter shows great promise to reduce the burden of gonorrhoea, even if the vaccine was only partially effective or applied to only a random subset of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multistep cell fate transitions with stepwise changes of transcriptional profiles are common to many developmental, regenerative and pathological processes. The multiple intermediate cell lineage states can serve as differentiation checkpoints or branching points for channeling cells to more than one lineages. However, mechanisms underlying these transitions remain elusive. Here, we explored gene regulatory circuits that can generate multiple intermediate cellular states with stepwise modulations of transcription factors. With unbiased searching in the network topology space, we found a motif family containing a large set of networks can give rise to four attractors with the stepwise regulations of transcription factors, which limit the reversibility of three consecutive steps of the lineage transition. We found that there is an enrichment of these motifs in a transcriptional network controlling the early T cell development, and a mathematical model based on this network recapitulates multistep transitions in the early T cell lineage commitment. By calculating the energy landscape and minimum action paths for the T cell model, we quantified the stochastic dynamics of the critical factors in response to the differentiation signal with fluctuations. These results are in good agreement with experimental observations and they suggest the stable characteristics of the intermediate states in the T cell differentiation. These dynamical features may help to direct the cells to correct lineages during development. Our findings provide general design principles for multistep cell linage transitions and new insights into the early T cell development. The network motifs containing a large family of topologies can be useful for analyzing diverse biological systems with multistep transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is continuously urbanising, resulting in clusters of densely populated urban areas and more sparsely populated rural areas. We propose a method for generating spatial fields with controllable levels of clustering of the population. We build a synthetic country, and use this method to generate versions of the country with different clustering levels. Combined with a metapopulation model for infectious disease spread, this allows us to in silico explore how urbanisation affects infectious disease spread. In a baseline scenario with no interventions, the underlying population clustering seems to have little effect on the final size and timing of the epidemic. Under within-country restrictions on non-commuting travel, the final size decreases with increased population clustering. The effect of travel restrictions on reducing the final size is larger with higher clustering. The reduction is larger in the more rural areas. Within-country travel restrictions delay the epidemic, and the delay is largest for lower clustering levels. We implemented three different vaccination strategies—uniform vaccination (in space), preferentially vaccinating urban locations and preferentially vaccinating rural locations. The urban and uniform vaccination strategies were most effective in reducing the final size, while the rural vaccination strategy was clearly inferior. Visual inspection of some European countries shows that many countries already have high population clustering. In the future, they will likely become even more clustered. Hence, according to our model, within-country travel restrictions are likely to be less and less effective in delaying epidemics, while they will be more effective in decreasing final sizes. In addition, to minimise final sizes, it is important not to neglect urban locations when distributing vaccines. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically investigate the effect of urbanisation on infectious disease spread and in particular, to examine effectiveness of prevention measures as a function of urbanisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The T-cell (TCR) repertoire relies on the diversity of receptors composed of two chains, called α and β, to recognize pathogens. Using results of high throughput sequencing and computational chain-pairing experiments of human TCR repertoires, we quantitively characterize the αβ generation process. We estimate the probabilities of a rescue recombination of the β chain on the second chromosome upon failure or success on the first chromosome. Unlike β chains, α chains recombine simultaneously on both chromosomes, resulting in correlated statistics of the two genes which we predict using a mechanistic model. We find that ∼35% of cells express both α chains. Altogether, our statistical analysis gives a complete quantitative mechanistic picture that results in the observed correlations in the generative process. We learn that the probability to generate any TCRαβ is lower than 10−12 and estimate the generation diversity and sharing properties of the αβ TCR repertoire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New approaches to lineage tracking have allowed the study of differentiation in multicellular organisms over many generations of cells. Understanding the phenotypic variability observed in these lineage trees requires new statistical methods. Whereas an invariant cell lineage, such as that for the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, can be described by a lineage map, defined as the pattern of phenotypes overlaid onto the binary tree, a traditional lineage map is static and does not describe the variability inherent in the cell lineages of higher organisms. Here, we introduce lineage variability maps which describe the pattern of second-order variation in lineage trees. These maps can be undirected graphs of the partial correlations between every lineal position, or directed graphs showing the dynamics of bifurcated patterns in each subtree. We show how to infer these graphical models for lineages of any depth from sample sizes of only a few pedigrees. This required developing the generalized spectral analysis for a binary tree, the natural framework for describing tree-structured variation. When tested on pedigrees from C. elegans expressing a marker for pharyngeal differentiation potential, the variability maps recover essential features of the known lineage map. When applied to highly-variable pedigrees monitoring cell size in T lymphocytes, the maps show that most of the phenotype is set by the founder naive T cell. Lineage variability maps thus elevate the concept of the lineage map to the population level, addressing questions about the potency and dynamics of cell lineages and providing a way to quantify the progressive restriction of cell fate with increasing depth in the tree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food allergy is usually difficult to diagnose in early life, and the inability to diagnose patients with atopic diseases at an early age may lead to severe complications. Numerous studies have suggested an association between the infant gut microbiome and development of allergy. In this work, we investigated the capacity of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict food allergies in early life (0-3 years) from subjects’ longitudinal gut microbiome profiles. Using the DIABIMMUNE dataset, we show an increase in predictive power using our model compared to Hidden Markov Model, Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and LASSO regression. We further evaluated whether the training of LSTM networks benefits from reduced representations of microbial features. We considered sparse autoencoder for extraction of potential latent representations in addition to standard feature selection procedures based on Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) and variance prior to the training of LSTM networks. The comprehensive evaluation reveals that LSTM networks with the mRMR selected features achieve significantly better performance compared to the other tested machine learning models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer development is driven by series of events involving mutations, which may become fixed in a tumor via genetic drift and selection. This process usually includes a limited number of driver (advantageous) mutations and a greater number of passenger (neutral or mildly deleterious) mutations. We focus on a real-world leukemia model evolving on the background of a germline mutation. Severe congenital neutropenia (SCN) evolves to secondary myelodysplastic syndrome (sMDS) and/or secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML) in 30–40%. The majority of SCN cases are due to a germline ELANE mutation. Acquired mutations in CSF3R occur in >70% sMDS/sAML associated with SCN. Hypotheses underlying our model are: an ELANE mutation causes SCN; CSF3R mutations occur spontaneously at a low rate; in fetal life, hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells expands quickly, resulting in a high probability of several tens to several hundreds of cells with CSF3R truncation mutations; therapeutic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) administration early in life exerts a strong selective pressure, providing mutants with a growth advantage. Applying population genetics theory, we propose a novel two-phase model of disease development from SCN to sMDS. In Phase 1, hematopoietic tissues expand and produce tens to hundreds of stem cells with the CSF3R truncation mutation. Phase 2 occurs postnatally through adult stages with bone marrow production of granulocyte precursors and positive selection of mutants due to chronic G-CSF therapy to reverse the severe neutropenia. We predict the existence of the pool of cells with the mutated truncated receptor before G-CSF treatment begins. The model does not require increase in mutation rate under G-CSF treatment and agrees with age distribution of sMDS onset and clinical sequencing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanism is a widely used concept in biology. In 2017, more than 10% of PubMed abstracts used the term. Therefore, searching for and reasoning about mechanisms is fundamental to much of biomedical research, but until now there has been almost no computational infrastructure for this purpose. Recent work in the philosophy of science has explored the central role that the search for mechanistic accounts of biological phenomena plays in biomedical research, providing a conceptual basis for representing and analyzing biological mechanism. The foundational categories for components of mechanisms—entities and activities—guide the development of general, abstract types of biological mechanism parts. Building on that analysis, we have developed a formal framework for describing and representing biological mechanism, MecCog, and applied it to describing mechanisms underlying human genetic disease. Mechanisms are depicted using a graphical notation. Key features are assignment of mechanism components to stages of biological organization and classes; visual representation of uncertainty, ignorance, and ambiguity; and tight integration with literature sources. The MecCog framework facilitates analysis of many aspects of disease mechanism, including the prioritization of future experiments, probing of gene−drug and gene−environment interactions, identification of possible new drug targets, personalized drug choice, analysis of nonlinear interactions between relevant genetic loci, and classification of diseases based on mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sequencing of the T cell receptor repertoire is a powerful tool for deeper study of immune response, but the unique structure of this type of data makes its meaningful quantification challenging. We introduce a new method, the Gamma-GPD spliced threshold model, to address this difficulty. This biologically interpretable model captures the distribution of the TCR repertoire, demonstrates stability across varying sequencing depths, and permits comparative analysis across any number of sampled individuals. We apply our method to several datasets and obtain insights regarding the differentiating features in the T cell receptor repertoire among sampled individuals across conditions. We have implemented our method in the open-source R package powerTCR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of machine learning-based predictors have been developed for identifying immunogenic T-cell epitopes based on major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I and II binding affinities. Rationally selecting the most appropriate tool has been complicated by the evolving training data and machine learning methods. Despite the recent advances made in generating high-quality MHC-eluted, naturally processed ligandome, the reliability of new predictors on these epitopes has yet to be evaluated. This study reports the latest benchmarking on an extensive set of MHC-binding predictors by using newly available, untested data of both synthetic and naturally processed epitopes. 32 human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I and 24 HLA class II alleles are included in the blind test set. Artificial neural network (ANN)-based approaches demonstrated better performance than regression-based machine learning and structural modeling. Among the 18 predictors benchmarked, ANN-based mhcflurry and nn_align perform the best for MHC class I 9-mer and class II 15-mer predictions, respectively, on binding/non-binding classification (Area Under Curves = 0.911). NetMHCpan4 also demonstrated comparable predictive power. Our customization of mhcflurry to a pan-HLA predictor has achieved similar accuracy to NetMHCpan. The overall accuracy of these methods are comparable between 9-mer and 10-mer testing data. However, the top methods deliver low correlations between the predicted versus the experimental affinities for strong MHC binders. When used on naturally processed MHC-ligands, tools that have been trained on elution data (NetMHCpan4 and MixMHCpred) shows better accuracy than pure binding affinity predictor. The variability of false prediction rate is considerable among HLA types and datasets. Finally, structure-based predictor of Rosetta FlexPepDock is less optimal compared to the machine learning approaches. With our benchmarking of MHC-binding and MHC-elution predictors using a comprehensive metrics, a unbiased view for establishing best practice of T-cell epitope predictions is presented, facilitating future development of methods in immunogenomics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent clone-tracking experiment, millions of uniquely tagged hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) were autologously transplanted into rhesus macaques and peripheral blood containing thousands of tags were sampled and sequenced over 14 years to quantify the abundance of hundreds to thousands of tags or “clones.” Two major puzzles of the data have been observed: consistent differences and massive temporal fluctuations of clone populations. The large sample-to-sample variability can lead clones to occasionally go “extinct” but “resurrect” themselves in subsequent samples. Although heterogeneity in HSC differentiation rates, potentially due to tagging, and random sampling of the animals’ blood and cellular demographic stochasticity might be invoked to explain these features, we show that random sampling cannot explain the magnitude of the temporal fluctuations. Moreover, we show through simpler neutral mechanistic and statistical models of hematopoiesis of tagged cells that a broad distribution in clone sizes can arise from stochastic HSC self-renewal instead of tag-induced heterogeneity. The very large clone population fluctuations that often lead to extinctions and resurrections can be naturally explained by a generation-limited proliferation constraint on the progenitor cells. This constraint leads to bursty cell population dynamics underlying the large temporal fluctuations. We analyzed experimental clone abundance data using a new statistic that counts clonal disappearances and provided least-squares estimates of two key model parameters in our model, the total HSC differentiation rate and the maximum number of progenitor-cell divisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from SIV-infected macaques indicate that virus-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) are mostly present in the extrafollicular (EF) compartment of the lymphoid tissue, with reduced homing to the follicular (F) site. This contributes to the majority of the virus being present in the follicle and represents a barrier to virus control. Using mathematical models, we investigate these dynamics. Two models are analyzed. The first assumes that CTL can only become stimulated and expand in the extrafollicular compartment, with migration accounting for the presence of CTL in the follicle. In the second model, follicular CTL can also undergo antigen-induced expansion. Consistent with experimental data, both models predict increased virus compartmentalization in the presence of stronger CTL responses and lower virus loads, and a more pronounced rise of extrafollicular compared to follicular virus during CD8 cell depletion experiments. The models, however, differ in other aspects. The follicular expansion model results in dynamics that promote the clearance of productive infection in the extrafollicular site, with any productively infected cells found being the result of immigration from the follicle. This is not observed in the model without follicular CTL expansion. The models further predict different consequences of introducing engineered, follicular-homing CTL, which has been proposed as a therapeutic means to improve virus control. Without follicular CTL expansion, this is predicted to result in a reduction of virus load in both compartments. The follicular CTL expansion model, however, makes the counter-intuitive prediction that addition of F-homing CTL not only results in a reduction of follicular virus load, but also in an increase in extrafollicular virus replication. These predictions remain to be experimentally tested, which will be relevant for distinguishing between models and for understanding how therapeutic introduction of F-homing CTL might impact the overall dynamics of the infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For encapsulated bacteria such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, asymptomatic carriage is more common and longer in duration than disease, and hence is often a more convenient endpoint for clinical trials of vaccines against these bacteria. However, using a carriage endpoint entails specific challenges. Carriage is almost always measured as prevalence, whereas the vaccine may act by reducing incidence or duration. Thus, to determine sample size requirements, its impact on prevalence must first be estimated. The relationship between incidence and prevalence (or duration and prevalence) is convex, saturating at 100% prevalence. For this reason, the proportional effect of a vaccine on prevalence is typically less than its proportional effect on incidence or duration. This relationship is further complicated in the presence of multiple pathogen strains. In addition, host immunity to carriage accumulates rapidly with frequent exposures in early years of life, creating potentially complex interactions with the vaccine’s effect. We conducted a simulation study to predict the impact of an inactivated whole cell pneumococcal vaccine—believed to reduce carriage duration—on carriage prevalence in different age groups and trial settings. We used an individual-based model of pneumococcal carriage that incorporates relevant immunological processes, both vaccine-induced and naturally acquired. Our simulations showed that for a wide range of vaccine efficacies, sampling time and age at vaccination are important determinants of sample size. There is a window of favorable sampling times during which the required sample size is relatively low, and this window is prolonged with a younger age at vaccination, and in a trial setting with lower transmission intensity. These results illustrate the ability of simulation studies to inform the planning of vaccine trials with carriage endpoints, and the methods we present here can be applied to trials evaluating other pneumococcal vaccine candidates or comparing alternative dosing schedules for the existing conjugate vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination is an effective method to protect against infectious diseases. An important consideration in any vaccine formulation is the inoculum dose, i.e., amount of antigen or live attenuated pathogen that is used. Higher levels generally lead to better stimulation of the immune response but might cause more severe side effects and allow for less population coverage in the presence of vaccine shortages. Determining the optimal amount of inoculum dose is an important component of rational vaccine design. A combination of mathematical models with experimental data can help determine the impact of the inoculum dose. We illustrate the concept of using data and models to inform inoculum dose determination for vaccines, wby fitting a mathematical model to data from influenza A virus (IAV) infection of mice and human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) infection of cotton rats at different inoculum doses. We use the model to map inoculum dose to the level of immune protection and morbidity and to explore how such a framework might be used to determine an optimal inoculum dose. We show how a framework that combines mathematical models with experimental data can be used to study the impact of inoculum dose on important outcomes such as immune protection and morbidity. Our findings illustrate that the impact of inoculum dose on immune protection and morbidity can depend on the specific pathogen and that both protection and morbidity do not necessarily increase monotonically with increasing inoculum dose. Once vaccine design goals are specified with required levels of protection and acceptable levels of morbidity, our proposed framework can help in the rational design of vaccines and determination of the optimal amount of inoculum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of disease through human populations is complex. The characteristics of disease propagation evolve with time, as a result of a multitude of environmental and anthropic factors, this non-stationarity is a key factor in this huge complexity. In the absence of appropriate external data sources, to correctly describe the disease propagation, we explore a flexible approach, based on stochastic models for the disease dynamics, and on diffusion processes for the parameter dynamics. Using such a diffusion process has the advantage of not requiring a specific mathematical function for the parameter dynamics. Coupled with particle MCMC, this approach allows us to reconstruct the time evolution of some key parameters (average transmission rate for instance). Thus, by capturing the time-varying nature of the different mechanisms involved in disease propagation, the epidemic can be described. Firstly we demonstrate the efficiency of this methodology on a toy model, where the parameters and the observation process are known. Applied then to real datasets, our methodology is able, based solely on simple stochastic models, to reconstruct complex epidemics, such as flu or dengue, over long time periods. Hence we demonstrate that time-varying parameters can improve the accuracy of model performances, and we suggest that our methodology can be used as a first step towards a better understanding of a complex epidemic, in situation where data is limited and/or uncertain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gene co-expression network analysis is extremely useful in interpreting a complex biological process. The recent droplet-based single-cell technology is able to generate much larger gene expression data routinely with thousands of samples and tens of thousands of genes. To analyze such a large-scale gene-gene network, remarkable progress has been made in rigorous statistical inference of high-dimensional Gaussian graphical model (GGM). These approaches provide a formal confidence interval or a p-value rather than only a single point estimator for conditional dependence of a gene pair and are more desirable for identifying reliable gene networks. To promote their widespread use, we herein introduce an extensive and efficient R package named SILGGM (tatistical nference of arge-scale aussian raphical odel) that includes four main approaches in statistical inference of high-dimensional GGM. Unlike the existing tools, SILGGM provides statistically efficient inference on both individual gene pair and whole-scale gene pairs. It has a novel and consistent false discovery rate (FDR) procedure in all four methodologies. Based on the user-friendly design, it provides outputs compatible with multiple platforms for interactive network visualization. Furthermore, comparisons in simulation illustrate that SILGGM can accelerate the existing MATLAB implementation to several orders of magnitudes and further improve the speed of the already very efficient R package FastGGM. Testing results from the simulated data confirm the validity of all the approaches in SILGGM even in a very large-scale setting with the number of variables or genes to a ten thousand level. We have also applied our package to a novel single-cell RNA-seq data set with pan T cells. The results show that the approaches in SILGGM significantly outperform the conventional ones in a biological sense. The package is freely available via CRAN at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms by which different microbes colonize the healthy human gut versus other body sites, the gut in disease states, or other environments remain largely unknown. Identifying microbial genes influencing fitness in the gut could lead to new ways to engineer probiotics or disrupt pathogenesis. We approach this problem by measuring the statistical association between a species having a gene and the probability that the species is present in the gut microbiome. The challenge is that closely related species tend to be jointly present or absent in the microbiome and also share many genes, only a subset of which are involved in gut adaptation. We show that this phylogenetic correlation indeed leads to many false discoveries and propose phylogenetic linear regression as a powerful solution. To apply this method across the bacterial tree of life, where most species have not been experimentally phenotyped, we use metagenomes from hundreds of people to quantify each species’ prevalence in and specificity for the gut microbiome. This analysis reveals thousands of genes potentially involved in adaptation to the gut across species, including many novel candidates as well as processes known to contribute to fitness of gut bacteria, such as acid tolerance in Bacteroidetes and sporulation in Firmicutes. We also find microbial genes associated with a preference for the gut over other body sites, which are significantly enriched for genes linked to fitness in an in vivo competition experiment. Finally, we identify gene families associated with higher prevalence in patients with Crohn’s disease, including Proteobacterial genes involved in conjugation and fimbria regulation, processes previously linked to inflammation. These gene targets may represent new avenues for modulating host colonization and disease. Our strategy of combining metagenomics with phylogenetic modeling is general and can be used to identify genes associated with adaptation to any environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]