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Land use change is the main cause of carbon stock change in terrestrial ecosystems. Accurate assessment of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystem is of great significance to strengthen ecosystem protection and realize the goal of double carbon. This paper analyzed the land use pattern under three scenarios (inertial development, cropland protection and ecological protection) from 2000 to 2020 and 2030 with the help of the InVEST model and the PLUS model, and evaluated the characteristics of the changes in carbon stock at each stage. The results show that the carbon stocks in the nine provinces (regions) of the Yellow River Basin in 2000, 2010 and 2020 are 19 324.40×106 t, 19 178.39×106 t and 19 303.26×106 t respectively, with an overall U-shaped distribution, mainly because of the large reduction of ecological land mainly in grassland from 2000 to 2010. The carbon stock in the three scenarios of inertial development, cropland protection and ecological protection in 2030 is 19 522.68×106 t, 19 630.36×106 t and 19 673.35×106 t respectively, and all of them showing an increasing trend. Among them, the ecological protection scenario and the cropland protection scenario have higher carbon stock increment than the inertia development scenario. The land type changes that significantly enhance carbon stock are mainly the conversion from cropland land to forest land and the conversion from grassland to forest land. The study shows that in the context of arable land protection and ecological protection, ecological fallowing, afforestation, unused land development and reclamation of construction land to increase greening are effective in increasing the regional carbon stock and improving the regional carbon sink capacity, which provides a scientific basis for the decision-making on the management of land use in the Yellow River Basin and the optimization of its structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Located in the south bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, Zhengzhou and Luoyang have a special position and role in the ecological protection of Henan Province and even the Yellow River basin. Based on the four periods' land use data from 1990 to 2022 and combined with the PLUS model, the paper analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of land use in the area along the Yellow River in Zhengzhou and Luoyang cities from the aspects of land use dynamic degree, transfer matrix, migration of gravity center and landscape pattern. The results show that arable land and construction land are the dominant landscape types. Over the past 32 years, the area of arable land has shrunk significantly, while construction land has expanded dramatically and mainly derived from arable land. Forestland and grassland are concentrated in the western and southern areas. From 2000 to 2010, the transformation of arable land into water mainly occurs along the northern Yellow River coast. The gravity center of construction land moves to the southwest, and tends to contiguous development. The dominant position of arable land has weakened and spatial heterogeneity has increased. The overall natural connectivity has decreased, and fragmentation has intensified. The decrease of arable land and expansion of construction land has mainly influenced by population density in socio-economic factors, and natural factors are the main drivers for the change of ecological land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Environmental Science & Technology (10036504) is the property of Editorial Board of Environmental Science & Technology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

[Objective] Mining and urbanization have transformed the ecological and socioeconomic aspects of coal resource-based cities. This study aimed to measure the spatial characteristics of ecosystem services supply and demand matching in coal resource-based cities based on the urban-mining-rural tri-structure and to simulate future scenarios, and constructed the ecological protection and urban development pattern of Huainan City based on the supply and demand of ecosystem services. [Methods] This study focused on Huainan, a typical mature coal resource-based city in Anhui Province. Using land use data from 2005 to 2020, the PLUS model simulated future land changes in Huainan under four scenarios: natural, urban development, mining development, and ecological protection. The InVEST model then evaluated the supply-demand matching of six ecosystem services for 2035. [Results] (1) By 2035, the natural scenario increased construction land, while other lands decreased. Urban development significantly expanded urban land. Mining development boosted mining and subsidence areas. Ecological protection enhanced cropland, forest, grass, and water areas and construction land increase slowly. (2) Urban and mining scenarios improved matching for carbon sequestration and erosion prevention compared to the natural scenario., while ecological protection scenario enhanced water production, recreation and tourism, water purification, and food supply. (3) Urban development scenario expanded low matching degree areas but stimulated economic growth, whereas ecological protection scenario improved overall supply-demand balance and increased ecological land [Conclusion] The ecological protection scenario optimized supply-demand matching, while urban development degraded it but stimulated the economic growth of the Huainan City. The economic protection pattern of “one axis, three corridors, and multiple cores” and the urban development system of “one main, one auxiliary, and multiple nodes” are constructed. This study offers a foundation for balanced development in coal resource-based cities.

[Objective] This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the carbon cycle by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration and its response to land use/land cover (LULC) change, so as to effective guidance for carbon management and ecological restoration strategies. [Methods] InVEST and PLUS models were used to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2030. By combining data on LULC change, the relationship between carbon storage and LULC change was quantitatively analyzed. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020, the land types of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration were mainly forestland, cropland, and grassland, and forestland, cropland, and construction land showed an increasing trend, among which construction land increased the largest. (2) Carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration presented a change characteristics of “first increase and then decrease, gradually stabilize”, reaching a maximum value of 1.46×109 t in 2000, and decreasing to 1.45×109 t in 2020, showing a spatial distribution characteristic of “higher in the west, lower in the east”. (3) The carbon storage predictions under different future development scenarios indicated that, compared with 2020, all four scenarios showed a declining trend in carbon storage by 2030, among which the ecological development scenario experienced the least decline, with a reduction of 0.43×107 t compared with 2020, while the cropland development scenario exhibited the most significant decline, with a reduction of 1.05×107 t compared with 2020. (4) The conversion between cultivated land and forestland was the primary factor affecting carbon storage. Specifically, the transformation of cultivated land into forests plays a crucial role in increasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. Forest expansion significantly enhanced regional carbon storage, while a reduction in grassland negatively impacted carbon storage. [Conclusion] The conversion of forestland and cultivated land has a significant impact on increasing or decreasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.

Copyright of Journal of Hubei Minzu University (Natural Science Edition) is the property of Journal of Hubei Minzu University (Natural Sciences Edition) Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences is the property of Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences Editorial Department and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Landscape pattern is one of the most intuitive manifestations of land use change. In order to evaluate the evolution of land use and landscape pattern in Luoyang city, and then provide reference for land resource management and ecosystem protection in Luoyang City, based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use in China from 2000 to 2020 and the PLUS model, the changes of land use type and landscape pattern under the inertia development scenario and ecological protection scenario in Luoyang City in 2030 were simulated and predicted. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the land use types of Luoyang are mainly cultivated land, forest land and grassland, and the overall regional land use fluctuation is small, and land use is in the development stage. In 2030, under the inertia development scenario, the land evolution rate of Luoyang City is increased, and the ecological land use shows a shrinking trend. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land is limited, the ecological land area increased, and the regional ecological benefit increased significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] The aims of this study are to explore the response of ecosystem service value (ESV) to land use change, and to improve the sustainability of ecosystem service function in central Guizhou. [Methods] In this study, urban agglomeration of central Guizhou was taken as an example. Statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation method were used to assess the land use change and ESV spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban agglomeration of central Guizhou from 2000 to 2020, and the spatial pattern of land use and its ESV change under different development scenarios in 2030 was predicted by coupling with PLUS model. [Results] (1) The land use change in the study area from 2000 to 2020 was mainly manifested in the transformation of cropland and grassland to construction land and waters, and affected by the land use change, the ESV of the study area increased by 11.28 hundred million yuan from 2000 to 2020, showing a fluctuating upward trend, and the expansion of waters and construction land area was the main reason for the change of ESV in the study area. (2) The decrease area of ESV from 2000 to 2020 was mainly distributed in the center urban area with better economic development, and the increase area was mainly distributed near rivers, lakes and other waters. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high and low agglomeration areas in the study area were widely distributed and strongly clustered, with the high and high agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in the northwestern part of the study area and the low and low agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in the central part of the study area. (3) The ESV under the nature scenario, cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios in 2030 are 710.22 hundred million, 705.33 hundred million and 720.62 hundred million yuan, respectively, and the ecological protection scenario has an obvious positive effect on the growth of ESV in the study area. [Conclusion In the future. the urban agglomeration of central Guizhou can continue to strengthen the policy of returning farmland to forests to improve the value of ecosystem services in terms of ecological environment, and it should formulate a more reasonable and comprehensive development strategy in terms of urban development, which can take into account ecological protection while the economy develops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] The aims of this study are to simulate the change of ecosystem service value caused by land use change in karst region, to analyze the response relationship of land use change to ecosystem service value, and to provide scientific basis for regional sustainable development and ecological security protection. [Methods] Guizhou Province, a karst region with fragile ecological environment, was taken as an example. The PLUS model was used to predict land use under different scenarios based on three periods of land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, and to further analyze the characteristics of the changes in ESV under multiple scenarios in terms of spatial distribution. [Results] (1) Among the four preset scenarios, the cultivated land area and forestland area of the natural development scenario showed a large reduction trend, with a reduction of 101 676 hm and 208 481 hm, respectively. (2) Under the four preset scenarios, the 2030 ESV followed the order: dual cropland and ecological protection scenario for the study area (48 869.4 million RMB)> ecological protection scenario (48 852.4 million RMB) natural development scenario (48 643.5 million RMB)> cropland protection scenario (47 908,7 million RMB). (3) Under the four preset scenarios, the spatial distribution characteristics of ESV per unit area in the study area in 2020 and under multi-scenario simulation were relatively similar. However, the spatial distribution of its ESV under the natural development scenario significantly reduced in the area of high values. [Conclusion] ESV is closely related to land use change, and rational planning for future land use is the most direct reason for ensuring good ecological quality, and from the perspective of sustainable development, economic development under the scenario of arable land and ecological protection is the best mode of land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use changes are the main cause for the changes of carbon storage, which is of great importance for maintaining regional carbon balance to make multi-scenario projections of future land use change and explore its impacts on carbon storage. In recent years, under the combination of natural factors and policies, with the land use changing significantly, carbon storage of the Weihe River Basin has also changed. Based on the PLUS-InVEST model, we assessed and predicted the spatial and temporal variations of ecosystem carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin and explored the impacts of land-use change. The results showed that land use distribution pattern of the Weihe River Basin did not change much from 2000 to 2020, which was characterized by the decreases of cropland area and the increases of the area of the remaining land use types. The main ways of land use type conversion were cropland to built-up land and inter-conversion of cropland, forest, grassland. Carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with a total increment of 15.31xl06 t. The areas with high carbon storage presented the characteristics of "northeast patch-western scatter-central and southern belt", while low carbon storage distributed in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration located in the lower basin. Compared to 2020, carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin in 2030 would increase under the four scenarios. Carbon storage would increase the least under the economic development scenario, and the most under the ecological protection scenario. The variation of carbon storage in spatial distribution would be embodied in the staggered zone of cropland, forest, and grassland in the upper basin. The results could provide data support for land use management decisions and carbon storage enhancement in the Weihe River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Soil & Water Conservation (1009-2242) is the property of Institute of Soil & Water Conservation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Rapid urbanization has exerted the considerable pressure on land resources and infrastructure, leading to urban sprawl. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) has been one of the most crucial tools to manage and curb the urban sprawl. The delineation can also be optimized to alleviate the land-use conflicts for the sustainable urban development. The second-largest city in Shaanxi Province, Xianyang City is similar to the most middle-sized cities in China, indicating the rapid development with the land-use conflicts and ecological crises. In this study, the ecological protection areas of the high importance were delineated as the agricultural production and urban construction suitability areas, according to the "Dual-Evaluation" framework. The "top-down" policy constraints were served as the delineation of UGBs. Concurrently, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was employed to conduct to meet the resource requirements and development potential in the study area. Future demands were forecasted and simulated for the land use. A "bottom-up" demand-driven approach was used to promote the rational use of land resources in the sustainable development of the environment. The delineation of UGBs was also in line with the local needs of actual development. Additionally, the erosion-dilation test was also employed to remove the noise points from the UGBs, particularly for the smoother and easier to manage. The results showed that: 1) The southern region was predominantly focused on urban development, where the area of 1 368.98 km² was designated as the urban construction. Meanwhile, the northern was prioritized the ecological protection, where the area of 3 853.04 km² was unsuitable for construction. 2) The PLUS model was used to simulate the urban construction land in 2040, which was 133.86 km² under the constraints of suitability evaluation. Compared with the natural development scenario, there was a significant reduction in the unused land area, along with an increase in the areas of arable land, forest land, and construction land, in order to facilitate the efficient use of land. 3) The erosion and dilation were integrated to exclude the unsuitable area for urban construction. The bottom-line UGBs was delineated as 3863.39 km²; The alternate UGBs was 852.28 km², which was composed of the suitable urban construction zones; The priority UGBs was 134.84 km² in the distribution range of urban construction land by 2040. The triple functional boundaries were established to promote the more compact and continuous urban pattern after morphological adjustments, thus guiding the direction of urban development. This approach can offer a novel perspective and scientific rationale to delineate the UGBs in the urbanization, in order to balance the development and protection. The conflicts among urban development, farmland protection and ecological conservation can also be determined to enable the coordinated development among population, resources and the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimizing the layout of agricultural and fishery land utilization space in coastal tidal flats is an essential step in promoting the construction of“Blue Granary”and the sustainable utilization of tidal flat resources. Based on remote sensing and GIS technology, this study revealed the evolution characteristics of agricultural and fishery spatial utilization pattern in the tidal flat reclamation area in the southern Yellow River Delta from 1995 to 2020, as well as combined ecological suitability assessment, ecological network construction, and land use change model. The main land use change pattern of tidal flat agriculture and fishery under different development scenarios in 2035 was predicted by simulation and suggestions for spatial layout optimization and adjustment were proposed. The results showed that: during the study period, the total area of agricultural planting and mariculture utilization of tidal flats increased first and then decreased, which grew from 924.62 km² in 1995 to 1 224.96 km² in 2004, with the scale beginning to decrease after 2004, and dedined to 1 129.38 km² in 2020. The spatial distribution pattern of paddy field and aquaculture pond changed noticeably, as did the spatial aggregation of dry land, the open aquaculture in the sea area gradually expanded away from the coast, and the spatial distribution of main agricultural and fishery utilization in the tidal flat area demonstrated clear land-sea gradient differentiation. The current distribution of agricultural planting and mariculture is ecologically suitable, however, the future growth space of agricultural planting is limited, and the development potentials of beach pond aquaculture and open aquaculture remain certain. Strict environmental protection measures for wetlands limit the expansion of agricultural planting and mariculture utilization space. The land use scale of beach agricultural planting and mariculture will increase significantly under the development scenario of agriculture and fishery, however, attention must be paid to the rational development of unused land, the improvement of the ecological connectivity of beach land and sea, and the application and promotion of efficient ecological agricultural planting and mariculture utilization model. The results may provide decision support for the high-quality agriculture and fishery development in the Yellow River Delta. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem services value (ESV) and the driving mechanism thereof, the coupled PLUS-Geodetector model was used to simulate land-use scenarios from 2018 to 2034 in Hotan region and to analyze the trend of changes in ESV and the driving mechanism from the perspective of industrial development. The results are as follows：eight land-use types, neighborhood weights under different scenarios, and the PLUS model was used for simulation to obtain the three land-use scenarios of natural evolution, economic priority, and ecological protection in 2034. Under all three scenarios, the total ESV in Hotan region increased, with the highest increase being in the ecological protection scenario and the lowest being in the economic priority scenario. Except for the southern mountainous areas and the areas near the waters in the north-central part that were high -, second high -, and medium-value areas, the distribution of ESV showed the general characteristics of being dominated by low-value and second-low-value areas, with the high being in the south and the low being in the north. From 2010 to 2018, Hotan′s substantial changes in ESV were mainly concentrated in areas adjacent to the central town development axis, while in 2018—2034, the spatial change range of ESV will be further expanded, and the rapid expansion of cultivated land and construction land to the north and south of the town axis brought about by the rapid development of agriculture, animal husbandry, and industry was the main factor causing the spatial changes in ESV. The expansion of man-made landuse types in the economic priority scenario occurred faster, while that of the ecological protection scenario was the opposite. The current status and evolution of ESV in Hotan region is the result of the combined effects of natural and social-economic factors. Natural factors have stronger driving effects on ESV in Hotan region than socio-economic factors, while pastoralism and industry have stronger driving effects among socio-economic factors. The driving force of two-factor interactions is greater than that of one-factor, and the driving force of the interaction among industries is higher than that of a single industry. The study showed that different development modes will reveal differences in the quantity and distribution of ESV in Hotan region. Various factors and their interactions within each industry have considerable driving effects on the changes of ESV. Scientific planning of development routes based on the evaluation and analysis of the driving mechanism of ESV has great significance to the sustainable and high-quality development of Hotan region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern foothill of the Qinling Mountains region has been one of the unique ecological treasures in China, due to the rich and diverse ecological environment, as well as the complex terrain and variable climate. However, it is ever increasing impact of human activities on the local natural environment and ecosystems, as economic development and population growth. Severe challenges have posed on the protection of the ecological environment. Consequently, it is urgent to investigate the ecological environment quality in the stability and sustainable development of the ecosystem. This study aims to assess the ecological sensitivity in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains using the driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response-management (DPSIRM) and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. Initially, 17 indicators were selected to evaluate the ecological sensitivity in 2010, 2015 and 2020, according to the DPSIRM framework. Furthermore, the PLUS model was employed to simulate the spatial distribution of land use from 2020 to 2030. Various scenarios were also considered to integrate the present ecological situation. Subsequently, the simulated and predicted data of land use was served as the key influencing factors to assess the ecological environment. The spatial distribution of ecological sensitivity was predicted in the study area in the future. The findings reveal that the ecologically sensitive regions within the northern foothills were primarily centered around the urban core, indicating the greater resilience to disturbance, as the distance increased from urban centers. Furthermore, the proportion of non-sensitive areas gradually increased from 9% to 26% between 2010 and 2020, with the highest share of low-sensitive zones in 2010 (38%), medium-sensitive zones peaking in 2015 (28%), and the highest proportion of low-sensitive regions in 2020 (30%). Notably, the proportion of extremely sensitive zones was remained relatively low and consistent (5%-10%), indicating an overall favorable trend of the gradual improvement in the ecological environment over time. Furthermore, the patterns of land use were primarily comprised the farmland, woodland, and grassland, according to some projections under three distinct scenarios in the period from 2020 to 2030. Therefore, the ecological preservation was aligned with development and prioritizing sustainable strategies, which was most closely with current ecological objectives. The spatial distribution of ecological sensitivity was obtained within the context of ecological protection. Pertinent measures can be concurrently implemented in distinct sensitive areas. A robust foundation can be offered for the whole development and sustainable utilization of the ecosystem. The findings can also provide the solid refence to preserve the stability and sustainable ecosystem, particularly for the rational allocation and utilization of production, living, and ecological zones within the Qinling region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

[Objective] The temporal and spatial changes of land use and carbon storage in the Pearl River Basin in the past 20 years and the next 10 years were analyzed in order to provide a reference for the optimization of land use pattern and ecosystem carbon sequestration management in the Pearl River Basin. [Methods] Based on the land use data of 2002, 2012, and 2022, this paper analyzed the changes of land use types, used the PLUS model to simulate the land use pattern under the natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2032, and used the InVEST model to evaluate the changes of ecosystem carbon storage under the three scenarios. [Results] The land types in the Pearl River Basin have changed greatly in the past 20 years, and the one-way conversion of cultivated land to construction land and the two-way conversion between cultivated land and forest land were the main characteristics of land use change in the Pearl River Basin. During the same period, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems showed a downward trend as a whole, with a decrease of 0.52%. The carbon storage projection in 2032 shows that the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario is significantly higher than that under the cultivated land protection scenario and the natural development scenario, which are 4.81×106 and 10.22×106 t higher, respectively. [Conclusion] Therefore, when formulating land use planning in the future, decision-makers should consider the balance between economic development and ecological protection, strengthen the concept of ecological protection and green development in river basins, increase the function of land carbon storage, and help achieve the “double carbon” goal and regional sustainable development.

[Objective] This study was aimed to estimate the amount of water conservation in Shaanxi Province. [Methods] The InVEST model and PLUS model were coupled to calculate the water conservation amount in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 and predict the water conservation amount under land use changes in the future in 2030. [Results] The average water conservation amount in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 was 132.25 mm, with a spatial distribution characteristic of gradually increasing water conservation from north to south. From the perspective of vegetation types, forest land was the main body of water conservation in Shaanxi Province. The average annual water conservation amount was 199.55×108 m3. From the administrative region, Ankang City had the largest water conservation amount(308.96 mm). The total amount of water source conservation in 2030 will be 285.16×108 m3 and 8.68×108 m3 less than that in 2020. [Conclusion] The water conservation amount of Shaanxi Province will show a slight downward trend from 2020 to 2030 in the future.

[Objective] To seek a new urban development plan of Hefei under the guidance of “double carbon” goal. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Hefei City in the 5th period from 2000 to 2020, under the guidance of territorial spatial Planning of Hefei City, the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use in 2035 was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatio-temporal change characteristics of carbon storage in Hefei City under multiple scenarios were explored by coupling the InVEST model. And further explore the effect of the comprehensive land use on the carbon storage. [Results] (1) The main characteristics of land use change in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020 were the decrease of cultivated land and forest land, among which cultivated land was the main source of construction land expansion. The law of land change in the natural development and farmland resource protection scenarios was roughly the same, mainly represented by the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and water body. In the green urban development scenario, the area of forest land changed from decreasing to increasing compared with the other two scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in Hefei City decreased year by year from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon loss was the most 2005 to 2010. By 2035, the carbon reserves of natural development scenario, farmland resource protection scenario and green urban development scenario were 138.96×106 t, 140.13×106 t, and 139.81×106 t, respectively. Under the farmland resource protection scenario, the area with the lowest increase of carbon storage significantly slowed down the expansion of the construction land. under the scenario of urban development, forest land changes from carbon loss to carbon sequestration, which was the most potential trend of carbon sequestration. (3) The land utilization rate of green urban development scenario was the highest, which can effectively reduce the threat of comprehensive land use degree to carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] Both farmland resource protection scenario and green accumulation urban development scenario were conducive to urban carbon sequestration development. Implementing parallel policies of ecological protection and urban development, and adjusting comprehensive land use mode were conducive to improving urban carbon loss.

[Objective] The forest coverage rate of Fujian Province is as high as 66.8%, ranking first in China. To investigate the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in Fujian Province is the theoretical basis for exploring the balance between social development and ecological protection. [Methods] Based on the carbon storage module of PLUS model and InVEST model, relationship between the spatiotemporal change characteristics of carbon storage and land use types in Fujian province during 2000—2020 was revealed, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in Fujian Province during 2020—2030 were predicted from three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection and urban development. [Results] The total carbon reserves in the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 214.77×107, 214.51×107 and 212.93×107 t, respectively, indicating a downward trend year by years. The development and transformation of land by human activities was the dominant factor leading to changes in carbon stocks, and the conversion of large areas of cultivated land and forest land into urban areas was the primary reason for the decline in carbon stocks. The prediction results showed that compared with 2020, carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection and urban development in 2030 would decrease by 1.47×107 t, increase by 0.17×107 t, and decrease by 1.85×107 t, respectively. The ecological protection scenario was the only development scenario that reversed the decline in carbon stocks. Compared with 2020, the forest area had expanded by 1 900.87 km2 and the forest carbon storage had increased by 2.08 ×107 t, which could effectively protect the ecology and meet the land requirements for urban development. [Conclusion] Prioritizing forest land protection and controlling the expansion of construction land are crucial prerequisites for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Copyright of Journal of Soil & Water Conservation (1009-2242) is the property of Institute of Soil & Water Conservation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Soil & Water Conservation (1009-2242) is the property of Institute of Soil & Water Conservation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Land use changes promote variations in ecosystem carbon storage, thereby influencing global climate. Investigating the impact of land use changes on carbon storage is crucial for regional ecosystem management and achieving economic sustainability. Taking Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province as a case study, this research utilizes land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, coupled with the PLUS and InVEST models, to analyze the relationship between land use changes and carbon storage. Furthermore, it evaluates carbon storage under different future scenarios. The results showed that the land use types were mainly cropland and grassland, accounting for about 71% of the total area. Over the past 20 years, there has been a declining trend in the area of cropland and grassland, while the area of forest land and cropland has showed an increasing trend, and the main direction of conversion was cultivated land to construction land. In 2030, under the natural development scenario, there will be a decrease in the areas of cropland, forestland, and water bodies, while grassland, construction land, and unused land will experience growth. In the ecological protection scenario, compared to natural development, there will be an increase in forestland and grassland, with other land categories experiencing varying degrees of reduction. Under the cropland protection scenario, the area of cropland is projected to increase by approximately 1.11 km² compared to the natural development scenario. Over the past 20 years, the carbon storage in this region increased first and then decreased, but the overall carbon storage showed a downward trend, with an average annual decrease of 0.19x106 t. Under the natural development scenario in 2030, carbon storage is 766.43x106 t; under the cropland protection scenario, the carbon storage is 767.28x106 t, under the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage is 768.5x106 t. Cropland protection falls between natural development and ecological protection in terms of carbon storage, suggesting that the City should prioritize cropland development while implementing certain ecological protection measures to mitigate the rate of decline in carbon storage in future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities and natural resource changes have exerted considerable impact on the ecosystem service value (ESV) of Zhengzhou City. In this study, the standard equivalent factor, which was revised according to the basic land-use data of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, was adopted combined with the patch-generation land-use change simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the land-use data of Zhengzhou in three scenarios (nature development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection) in the year 2030. In this way, the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service value was analyzed and forecast. Results of the modeling simuation showed that main land-use pattern of Zhengzhou was cultivated land and construction land in 1990-2020, and the dynamic degree of construction land-use area reached the apex (9.85%) from 2000 to 2010; During the period between 1990 and 2020, the area of low ESV in Zhengzhou was distributed in a "lamellar " form, accounting for 65.19% in 2020, and during the time the increased area being up to 1 339.58 km², the areas of median and slightly high ESV were distributed in the form of "secondary nuclear and tertiary", and the area of high ESV accounted for 3.59%; ESV of Zhengzhou decrease by 1.391 9 billion yuan during this period, the gain of ESV mainly came from the conversion of cultivated land to water bodies, while the loss od ESV was caused by the conversion of forest land to construction land, forest land to farmland and waterbodies to construction land. With respect to the above three scenarios, in the ecological protection scenario the variation amplitude of land use area was the smallest; ESV decreased in the natural development and cultivated land protection scenarios; and ESV increased by 123 million yuan in ecological protection scenario, with the "cold point" concentration being more obvious. It is expected that the results of this study would provide positive guidance for the territorial planning and ecological protection of Zhengzhou. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation is the property of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation is the property of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The issue of carbon emissions caused by land use type change and human social activities is becoming more and more serious. Taking Jinan City as the study area, the land use change and carbon storage change in Jinan City from 2000 to 2020 were studied, and the land use and carbon storage in Jinan City in 2040 under different development scenarios were predicted based on the PLUS-InVEST model. The results show that land use change has an important impact on the carbon storage in Jinan City, and the carbon storage in Jinan City is decreased in 2020 compared with 2000. In 2040, under different land use scenarios, the decline of carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario is the lowest, and the decline of carbon storage under the urban development scenario is the highest. The conversion between different land use types will have an impact on carbon stocks, with high carbon density in woodlands and reduced carbon stocks due to conversion of woodlands to other land uses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring ecological carrying capacity is relevant to regional ecological security. In order to explore the spatial and temporal changes in the ecological carrying capacity in the mountainous section of the Hutuo River basin in recent years and the future, first, the ecological footprint model with improved vegetation net primary productivity was applied to measure and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological carrying capacity in the basin from 2015 to 2020. Second, the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological carrying capacity in the region in 2030 were predicted by the PLUS model with accuracy verification under three scenarios, including trend continuation, economic development, and ecological protection. The results show that：the overall pattern of ecological carrying capacity per unit area in the region from 2015 to 2030 did not change greatly, but the internal spatial differentiation was clear, and the overall ecological carrying capacity per unit area was high in the southeast and northwest regions, while it was low in the northeast and southwest regions. From 2015 to 2020, the total regional ecological carrying capacity increased from 1.078 0×106 to 1.079 6×106 bhm², showing an upward trend. From 2020 to 2030, the total regional ecological carrying capacity was predicted to be 1.078 3×106 bhm² under the trend continuation scenario, while it was predicted to be 1.078 2×106 bhm² under the scenarios of economic development, showing a decreasing trend. This was mainly because of the transfer of pasture to arable land and the transfer of forest to construction area. The total ecological carrying capacity was predicted to increase under the scenario of ecological protection. This is mainly because of the transfer of arable land to forest and pasture. The total ecological carrying capacity of each land use type decreased in the order of：pasture, arable land, forest, construction area, and water area. The total ecological carrying capacity of forest and grassland was predicted to increase under the ecological protection scenario. The total ecological carrying capacity of arable land and construction land was predicted to increase under the economic development scenario. The total ecological carrying capacity of water area changed less under the different development scenarios. The ecological protection scenario was more conducive to the increase in ecological carrying capacity in the future, which is consistent with the future development direction of the region. The transformation of pasture to arable land and forest to construction areas should be strictly controlled. The regional ecological carrying capacity will be improved by the continuous implementation of the Grain for Green project and strengthening the ecological reclamation of regional abandoned mines in the future. This will achieve regional ecological security and sustainable development of economy, society, and ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial development is ever prominent in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River in recent years, due mainly to the fragile ecological environment. This article aims to explore the optimization and allocation of land use structure and layout for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. The middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River were taken as the research object. The land use, socio-economic, and natural environment datasets were collected from 2010 and 2020. A composite optimization was carried out on the land use structure and layout using multi-objective programming (MOP) and PLUS models. Firstly, a multi-objective model was constructed with three scenarios as objective functions: ecological protection scenario (economic benefit to ecological benefit target ratio of 1:4), economic development priority scenario (economic benefit to ecological benefit target ratio of 4:1), and economic ecological balanced development scenario (economic benefit to ecological benefit target ratio of 1:1). The total land area, cultivated land ownership, and ecological environment protection were used as the constraints, in order to obtain land use structure data under these three scenarios; Secondly, plugin Markov Chain of the PLUS model was utilized to predict the land use structure data for 2030 under the inertial development scenario; Finally, 15 driving factors were selected, including population, vegetation index (NDVI), GDP, distance to railways, distance to highways, distance to main roads, distance to secondary roads, distance to city center, soil type, distance to rivers, annual average temperature, annual average rainfall, DEM, slope, and aspect. High sensitivity areas under national nature reserves and ecological priority scenarios were set as the limiting conversion conditions. The PLUS model was used to spatially position the future land use patterns, and then adjust the trends in the study area under four scenarios. The optimal configuration scheme of regional land use structure and layout was proposed to balance the ecological protection and economic development. The results indicate that: 1) There were significant differences in the proportion structure of land use among the four development scenarios; 2) There was a more reasonable configuration of regional land use structure and spatial layout under the ecological economic equilibrium scenario, compared with the rest scenarios. The overall equilibrium scenario was superior to the rest from the perspectives of land use proportion structure, spatial pattern, and overall benefits. The comprehensive benefit value was 1948.101 billion yuan, and the economic benefit (1 222.388 billion yuan) increased by 4.03%, compared with the ecological protection scenario. The ecological value (7 725.712 billion yuan) also increased by 2.32%, compared with the economic priority scenario; 3) The comprehensive benefit value was 2 027.396 billion yuan under the scenario of prioritizing economic development, indicating the highest among the four. The finding can provide the theoretical basis and decision-making to optimize the land use structure and pattern prediction in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Ecology & Rural Environment is the property of Journal of Ecology & Rural Environment Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

[Objective] The aims of this study are to analyze the dynamic variation characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of the production-living-ecology function in the Lijiang River watershed, to predict its future change trend in the natural development scenario and the ecological protection scenario, respectively, and to provide a decision-making support for the sustainable development of the karst watershed. [Methods] With the land use data of Lijiang River Watershed of 2010, 2015 and 2020, the gravity center model was used to analyze the movement of the gravity centers of the production-living-ecology function, and the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) model was used to analyze and simulate spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the production-living-ecology function in the Lijiang River watershed. [Results] (1) From 2010 to 2020, the index of production function (PF) and living function (LF) increased by 0.77% and 23.85%, respectively, and the areas with high-value of PF and LF concentrated in the lower elevations of the study area and Guilin urban area, respectively. The ecologly function (EF) index decreased by 1.39% over the same time period, and the area of high-value of EF distributed along high elevations. (2) The areas of enhanced PF and LF in the latter stage increased by 4.0% and 11.6% from the previous period, respectively, while the areas of weakened function decreased by 3.2% and 9.4% from the previous period, respectively. The areas of enhanced and weakened EF decreased by 16.4% and increased by 17.3% from the previous period, respectively. (3) In the past ten years, the centers of gravity of PF and LF moved to the northwest as a whole, while the center of gravity of EF moved to the southeast as a whole. (4) Compared with 2020, in the natural development scenario, the mean values of PF and LF in 2030 increased by 0.278 and 0.4, respectively, while the mean value of EF decreased by 0.138. In the ecological protection scenario, the mean values of PF, LF and EF in 2030 increased by 0.421, 0.211 and 0.06, respectively. [Conclusion] The PF and LF in the Lijiang River watershed had been enhanced overall, while the EF had been weakened, but the overall amplitude of change of EF was the largest among the three functions. The simulation results of ecological protection scenarios are more in line with the development goals of the Overall Territorial Space Plan of Guilin City (2021—2035） [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] To seek a new urban development plan of Hefei under the guidance of "double carbon" goal. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Hefei City in the 5th period from 2000 to 2020, under the guidance of territorial spatial Planning of Hefei City, the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use in 2035 was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatio-temporal change characteristics of carbon storage in Hefei City under multiple scenarios were explored by coupling the InVEST model. And further explore the effect of the comprehensive land use on the carbon storage. [Results] (1) The main characteristics of land use change in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020 were the decrease of cultivated land and forest land, among which cultivated and was the main source of construction land expansion. The law of land change in the natural development and farmland resource protection scenarios was roughly the same, mainly represented by the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and water body. In the green urban development scenario, the area of forest land hanged from decreasing to increasing compared with the other two scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in Hefei City decreased year by year from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon loss was the most 2005 to 2010. By 2035, the carbon reserves of natural development scenario, farmland resource protection scenario and green urban development scenario were 138.96 × 106 t, 140.13 × 106 t, and 139.81 × 106 t, respectively. Under the farmland resource protection scenario, the area with the lowest increase of carbon storage significantly slowed down the expansion of the construction land. under the scenario of urban development, forest land changes from carbon loss to carbon sequestration, which was the most potential trend of carbon sequestration. (3) The land utilization rate of green urban development scenario was the highest, which can effectively reduce the threat of comprehensive land use degree to carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] Both farmland resource protection scenario and green accumulation urban development scenario were conducive to urban carbon sequestration development. Implementing parallel policies of ecological protection and urban development, and adjusting comprehensive land use mode were conducive to improving urban carbon loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arid Land Geography is the property of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation is the property of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

[Objective] The study is aimed at revealing the response of runoff to land use change in the Kuye River Basin and predicting future runoff change. [Methods] Taking the Kuye River Basin as the study area, based on the SWAT and PLUS models, the changes of runoff under different land use scenarios were quantitatively analyzed by using the land use data of 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 and the data of 2025 and 2030 that were predicted from the natural development scenario. [Results] (1) The R2 and NS of the SWAT model during the periodic and validation periods were greater than 0.7. The overall accuracy of PLUS model was 0.877 4, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.802 1. The two models had good applicability in the Kuye River Basin. (2) From 2000 to 2020, forest land and construction land increased by 102.92 and 600.90 km2, respectively, while cultivated land, grassland, water area, and unused land decreased by 277.15, 366.25, 40.44 and 19.98 km2, respectively. (3) The average annual runoff depth in the Kuye River Basin presented a spatial distribution pattern of “lower in the upper reaches, higher in the lower reaches, lower in the west, and higher in the east”. (4) Changing land use data while ensuring that other input data remains unchanged, the results of scenario analysis showed that the decrease of forest land and grassland area would promote runoff, and the increase of construction land area would also promote runoff. (5) Under the natural development scenario, there was no significant change in the spatial distribution pattern of land use in the Kuye River Basin in 2025 and 2030, and the land use was still dominated by cultivated land and grassland, with the average annual runoff increasing by 3.21% and 5.00%, respectively, compared with 2020. [Conclusion] There was a close relationship between land use and runoff change. From the perspective of scenario analysis, forest land and grassland inhibited runoff, while construction land promoted runoff. Under the future natural development scenario, runoff increased with land use change. The research could provide scientific basis for the optimization of land use structure and rational planning of water and soil resources in the Kuye River Basin.

[Objective] As an innovative way of regulating territorial space, the planning of flexible space is of great significance for improving the scientific quality and effectiveness of spatial planning, and reducing the disturbance and impact of uncertain factors. This study aimed to explore the delineation of land use layout flexible space under uncertain conditions. [Methods] The study took Xuzhou City, a typical resource-based city, as an example. First, an interval optimization model was used to obtain the flexible quantity interval of various land use types. Then, the upper and lower limits of the interval served as the quantity demand to import the PLUS model to simulate the spatial layout of various land use types, and the difference between the two simulated layouts was designated as flexible space. [Results] The results show that: (1) There are differences in the size of the flexible quantity interval of each land use type, among which land use types that contribute more to addressing future uncertainty are rural residential land, farmland, water, urban industrial and mining land, while the smaller ones are grassland and bare land. (2) The flexible space distribution of various land use types shows a certain pattern, and the flexible space of farmland is concentrated in the hotspots of land use change around urban and rural areas, the flexible space of garden plot and woodland is distributed in suitable growth areas such as river banks and low hills, and the flexible space of urban industrial and mining land and rural residential land is mainly distributed in the outer edge areas of their original scope. (3) Based on the flexible space of each land use type, the land types were merged according to the zoning function of the planning, and the conflicting parts of the flexible space were processed according to the suitability to obtain the flexible space of different spatial planning zones. Among them, the flexible space areas of agricultural production zones, ecological protection zones, urban construction zones, and rural development zones account for 1.74%, 0.20%, 1.09%, and 3.31% of the total area, respectively. [Conclusion] The probability distribution of possible conflicts in land use space is the prerequisite for the delineation of flexible space. It is necessary to delineate flexible space of land use layout from an uncertain perspective. Based on interval optimization and PLUS model, the delineation method of flexible space proposed in this study seems feasible, which can provide support for planning decisions.

To explore the impact of land use change on ecosystem carbon storage in Hohhot City, this paper simulates and predicts the land use and carbon stock of Hohhot City under four scenarios, namely, natural development, ecological protection, arable land protection, and urban development based on the InVEST and PLUS models. The results showed that the area of land use types, such as impervious surface, forest land, grassland, and water bodies in Hohhot City increased from 1990 to 2020. The area of land types, such as cultivated land, bare land, and shrubs decreased, with shrubs and bare land having the highest land turn-out rate of 93.63% and 98.24%, respectively. The estimation results of the InVEST model indicated that the continuous expansion of anthropogenic ground, erosion of arable land, and other land use high carbon density land types that resulted in a decreasing trend of carbon storage in Hohhot City from 1990 to 2020. The carbon stocks in Hohhot City in 2030 under the abovementioned scenarios are predicted to decrease compared with those in 2020. Carbon stocks in the arable land protection scenario are predicted to decrease the least, followed by the ecological protection scenario, indicating that reasonable protection measures can effectively reduce the decrease of carbon stocks. The arable land conservation scenario can effectively slow down the expansion of urban buildings, while the ecological conservation scenario can effectively increase ecological land such as water bodies and grasslands. The study shows that the implementation of arable land and ecological protection policies, optimization of land use structure, and improvement of land use efficiency are all important for the sustainable development of Hohhot City. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change is the main factor driving the change of carbon stock, and assessing the impact of land use change on carbon stock is of great significance for carbon balance. Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, based on the InVEST-PLUS model, we explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and carbon stock in Jiangxi Province from 1990 to 2020, and measure the evolution of carbon stock under various scenarios in Jiangxi Province in 2030. (1) The carbon stocks in Jiangxi Province in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 1275.94×106 t, 1276.00×106 t, 1269.12×106 t and 1258.00×106 t, respectively, with an overall decreasing trend. The decrease of forest land was the main factor for the loss of carbon stock. Above-ground biomass carbon pool and soil carbon pool had the most carbon stock, accounting for 88.82% of the total carbon stock. (2) By 2030, the carbon stock of the natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario, and urban development scenario will decrease by 3.8×106 t, increase by 1.25×106 t, and decrease by 13.3×106 t, respectively, compared with 2020. it shows that the adoption of ecological protection measures and optimization of land-use structure can effectively control the decrease of carbon stock. (3) The areas with significantly higher carbon stocks are located in the mountainous areas of Gannan where ecological land use is continuous, while the areas with significantly lower carbon stocks are located in the northern regions of Gannan where carbon density values are low and construction land use is distributed in patches. The results of the study will provide a scientific basis for making reasonable ecological decisions for the construction of ecological civilization in Jiangxi Province and for realizing high-quality development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The delineation of urban growth boundary (UGB) can reasonably guide the direction of urban development and effectively restrain urban sprawl. From the perspective of coordinated development, this paper combined the multi-objective land use suitability evaluation method and the PLUS model to define the rigid UGB of the great Nanchang metropolitan area and the elastic UGB under three scenarios of natural growth, policy constraints and coordinated development. It is found as follows. ➀ The spatial distribution of multi-objective land use suitability presents the characteristics of differences, overlaps and crosses. The overlapping area of the most suitable areas for coordinated development with the most suitable areas of agriculture and the most critical areas of ecological protection has decreased compared with the most suitable areas of urban construction. ➁ The area within rigid UGB is 35 391. 03 km², accounting for 76. 11% of the total area of the study area, which can effectively control the urban expansion of the great Nanchang metropolitan area without breaking through the red line of ecological protection and the bottom line of food security. ➂ The simulation results based on the PLUS model showed that arable land, forest land, grassland and unused land decreased, while water area and construction land increased. The expansion of construction land was the most significant, and urban expansion was effectively constrained under the coordinated development scenario, the elastic UGB under the coordinated development scenario can effectively slow down the occupation of the areas with the highest agricultural or ecological value by urban expansion, and can better optimize the urban landscape pattern. The results are helpful to guide and realize the sustainable development of the great Nanchang metropolitan area, and can also provide reference for the coordinated development of production-living-ecology space in other types of cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation is the property of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation is the property of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Exploring the temporal and spatial differentiation of landscape ecological risks in watershed regions and future multi-scenario simulations provides a useful reference for the diagnosis of regional land development problems and the sustainable development of regional ecological environment. It took the Fenhe River Basin as the research object, based on the three phases of land use data in 2000, 2010, and 2020, using GIS grid method, landscape pattern index, spatial statistical analysis and other methods to explore the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of the landscape ecological risk in the Fenhe River Basin And its laws, combined with multivariate data. It used the PLUS model to simulate the evolution trend and differences of the ecological risks of the Fenhe River Basin under multiple scenarios in the future. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the average value of the Fenhe River Basin landscape ecological risk index showed an overall downward trend, mainly due to the continuous increase in the area of low-risk areas. (2) Its spatial agglomeration effect increased year by year, and the basin areas with relatively flat terrain were mainly low-risk and low-risk level, and the larger the scope over time, the stronger the agglomeration. (3) In 2035, the landscape ecological risk in the two scenarios will be further reduced, and the average value of the landscape ecological risk in the Fenhe River Basin under the sustainable ecological protection scenario will decrease and the increase in low-risk area is closely related to the increase and connectivity of woodland, grassland, and water areas, while changes in natural development scenarios are closely related to the integration of construction land and cultivated land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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[Objective] The urban land use in the future and corresponding waterlogging risk intensity was predicted, and the optimal control of the waterlogging risk and its implementation effects was explored in order to provide references for improving the prevention and control level of urban waterlogging and optimizing the layout of urban land use. [Methods] The study was conducted in Changsha City, Hunan Province. Urban land use layout and its waterlogging risk under a baseline scenario were predicted using the PLUS and SCS models. High-risk waterlogging areas were used as limiting conversion factors in the PLUS model to simulate the urban land layout and its waterlogging risk under a waterlogging control scenario by coupling the PLUS and SCS models. The implementation of the optimal management and control measures was verified by comparing the waterlogging risk differences under the two scenarios. [Results] The high-risk waterlogging area of construction land was predicted to be 96.47 km2 in 2035 under the baseline scenario, and the total waterlogging risk area of the urban construction land under the waterlogging control scenario would be reduced by 36.94 km2 compared with the baseline scenario without reducing construction land area. Furthermore, all high-risk areas in the new construction land would be avoided. [Conclusion] The waterlogging risk in urban land will increase significantly in the future. An optimization control method based on the PLUS-SCS model will help cities avoid waterlogging risk.