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Recent research has indicated high economic and environmental costs of human paper usage. Technologies have been developed to reduce consumers' paper use behavior, including mechanical dispensers that institute a delay between opportunities to obtain each consecutive unit. However, there is no empirical evidence that these dispensers or delays reduce paper use. In Experiment 1, implementing a delay between paper-unit deliveries using mechanical dispensers in a university cafe resulted in a significant decrease in units per person, material per person, and cost per person, compared to free-access dispensers. In Experiment 2, a relatively long delay was more effective than a short delay in reducing paper consumption in a laboratory experiment using mechanical dispensers. These results indicate that delays could be used to decrease paper use in many contexts on a larger scale. More research is necessary to determine the underlying behavioral mechanisms responsible for the observed reduction and the cost-benefit relationship under different circumstances. Keywords Reinforcement delays * Paper dispensers * Sustainability * Climate change * Behavioral nudges, Sustainability is rooted in human behavior, which is controlled by variables that can be manipulated (Baum, 2005; Skinner, 1953; Ylek & Steg, 2007). Verbal strategies (e.g., requests, education, information) to [...]

In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change and avoid conflict over the loss of resources. The empirical part of the paper answers the question to what extent local communities in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. Further, it assesses one of Malawi's adaptation projects designed to build resilience to a warmer and more variable climate, and points to some of its limitations. This research shows that not all adaptation strategies are suited to cope with a warmer and more variable climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many uncertainties in future climate, including how the Earth may react to different types of radiative forcing, such as CO2, aerosols, and even geoengineered changes in the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth's surface. Here, we analyze model simulations where the climate system is subjected to an abrupt change of the solar constant by ±4%, and where the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly changed to quadruple and half its preindustrial value. Using these experiments, we examine how clouds respond to changes in solar forcing, compared to CO2, and feedback on global surface temperature. The total cloud response can be decomposed into those responses driven by changes in global surface temperature, called the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks, and responses driven directly by the forcing that are independent of the global surface temperature. In this paper, we study the temperature mediated cloud changes to answer two primary questions: (a) How do temperature mediated cloud feedbacks differ in response to abrupt changes in CO2 and solar forcing? And (b) Are there symmetrical (equal and opposite) temperature mediated cloud feedbacks during global warming and global cooling? We find that temperature mediated cloud feedbacks are similar in response to increasing solar and increasing CO2 forcing, and we provide a short review of recent literature regarding the physical mechanisms responsible for these feedbacks. We also find that cloud responses to warming and cooling are not symmetric, due largely to non‐linearity introduced by phase changes in mid‐to‐high latitude low clouds and sea ice loss/formation. Plain Language Summary: As the global mean temperature changes, there are changes in cloud amount, location, and thickness, which can all impact the radiative balance of the Earth. Cloud changes driven directly by global temperature change are called temperature mediated cloud feedbacks. In this paper, we study the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks that occur in model simulations where the amount of sunlight incident upon the Earth is increased or decreased abruptly, and then held constant for 150 years. We compare the cloud changes in these experiments with experiments where the CO2 concentration is similarly increased or decreased abruptly and held constant for 150 years. In doing so we find that the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks following abrupt changes in solar radiation are characteristically similar to those occurring following CO2 increase. There are however substantial differences in the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks that occur while the climate is warming versus cooling. Key Points: The temperature mediated cloud changes and feedbacks incurred by changes in solar and CO2 forcing are similarOptical depth changes at high latitudes produce substantial differences in cloud feedbacks in cooling and warming experimentsLikewise, tropical circulations respond differently in models to cooling and warming, with a stronger change in the Walker circulation in warming experiments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A paradigm is a set of scientific and metaphysical beliefs that provide a theoretical framework within which scientific theories can be tested. Replacement of an existing paradigm by another is called a paradigm shift. Most of the following papers in this issue argue that an alternative paradigm is needed for the functioning of the so-called greenhouse effect of the Earth and hence for the explanation of observed climatic change. Some others contest it. The observed coincidence between global warming and rise of CO2 in the atmosphere over the last century - more accurately measured over the last 30 years of it - need not indicate a causal relationship, and it certainly need not give rise to global catastrophe. An assumed correlation is based on the expectation that the infrared radiation from CO2 contributes significantly to the greenhouse effect of the Earth. However, irregularities in the trends raise doubts of such a simple causal relationship and, at least, considerable doubt about the magnitude of such an expected effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fear of anthropogenic "global warming" can adversely affect patients' well-being. Accordingly, the state of the scientific consensus about climate change was studied by a review of the 539 papers on "global climate change" found on the Web of Science database from January 2004 to mid-February 2007, updating research by Oreskes, who had reported that between 1993 and 2003 none of 928 scientific papers on "global climate change" had rejected the consensus that more than half of the warming of the past 50 years was likely to have been anthropogenic. In the present review, 31 papers (6% of the sample) explicitly or implicitly reject the consensus. Though Oreskes said that 75% of the papers in her former sample endorsed the consensus, fewer than half now endorse it. Only 7% do so explicitly. Only one paper refers to "catastrophic" climate change, but without offering evidence. There appears to be little evidence in the learned journals to justify the climate-change alarm that now harms patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Currently, two such levels are discussed in the context of the international climate negotiations as long-term global temperature goals: a below 2 °C and a 1.5 °C limit in global-mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive assessment of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and several hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 % longer to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and Northern South America are projected to face local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50 cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels under a 2 °C warming, which is about 10 cm lower for a 1.5 °C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess future climate risks as well as different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a solid foundation for future work on refining our understanding of warming-level dependent climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The article presents a newly composed dataset of climate change scenario to pacify requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts. It is evident that global mean temperature change has become the yardstick to gauze impact of unavoidable climate change and requirement of adaptation. It is informed that the dataset helps in analyzing impact of climate change and implement climate model.

Instrumental data from the pre–Industrial Revolution period are important to -understand climate change. In this paper, the observations made by the French missionary J. Amiot in present-day central Beijing during 1757–62 were processed and analyzed. The observations represent the earliest continuous dataset of meteorological records found in China that have been digitized recently. Comparisons between the Amiot annual temperature range and extreme values with modern observations showed that the observations were read at approximately 0800 and 1500 local solar time (LST) in a well-ventilated outdoor site. The daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures (T-max, T-min, and T-mean, respectively) during 1757–62 were determined by examining the relationship between temperature at 0800 and 1500 LST and T-max, T-min, and T-mean in modern reference series. Nearly 260 years ago, Beijing's climate was typical of an inland temperate monsoon zone with annual T-mean, annual mean T-max, and annual mean T-min being 11.5°, 17.8°, and 6.1°C, respectively; further, the temperatures did not vary considerably from the 1951–1980 temperatures, but differed evidently compared to relatively recent decades (1981–2020). The difference was larger than the magnitudes of global and regional temperature changes. Thus, climate warming since the pre–Industrial Revolution period in the urban areas of Beijing has dominantly occurred over the last four decades. Uncertainties related to the thermometer and observational conditions 260 years ago and the interpolation method used have also been discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sensor measurement uncertainty has never been fully considered in prior appraisals of global average surface air temperature. The estimated average ±0.2 C station error has been incorrectly assessed as random, and the systematic error from uncontrolled variables has been invariably neglected. The systematic errors in measurements from three ideally sited and maintained temperature sensors are calculated herein. Combined with the ±0.2 C average station error, a representative lower-limit uncertainty of ±0.46 C was found for any global annual surface air temperature anomaly. This ±0.46 C reveals that the global surface air temperature anomaly trend from 1880 through 2000 is statistically indistinguishable from 0 C, and represents a lower limit of calibration uncertainty for climate models and for any prospective physically justifiable proxy reconstruction of paleo-temperature. The rate and magnitude of 20th century warming are thus unknowable, and suggestions of an unprecedented trend in 20th century global air temperature are unsustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which editor discusses articles including impacts of natural disasters in the Pacific Island Countries; evaluation of water resources vulnerability to climate change in Beijing, China and impacts of temperature change on air quality and public health in China.

Copyright of Urban Academy/ Kent Akademisi is the property of ICAM NETWORK and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines efforts taking place in London, San Francisco and Stockholm to implement deep greenhouse gas emission cuts--'deep decarbonization'--through the transformation of buildings and urban energy infrastructure for increased energy efficiency and low/zero carbon energy supply. Drawing on interviews, policy document analysis, and site tours to buildings and energy infrastructure, this paper analyzes how deep decarbonization is being embedded into urban buildings, energy systems, and institutions. It argues that practitioners are finding ways to create new low/zero carbon future buildings, but are having difficulty correcting the historical development path through retrofitting. This paper examines solutions and challenges brought to light by urban decarbonization in practice targeting existing buildings from which other cities can learn. Four key lessons for low/zero carbon retrofits are highlighted: 1) shift primary targets from homeowners to owners of multiple buildings, 2) expand the suite of resources available to support zero carbon retrofits, 3) experiment and teach using public investment, and 4) institutionalize energy and carbon reporting linked to municipal department targets. Given the necessity of low-carbon, efficient, and climate-resilient building retrofits to address the climate crisis, action can be scaled up by considering buildings and energy infrastructure an infrastructure priority for public investment. Keywords: urban; cities; climate change; decarbonization Cet article examine les efforts deployes a Londres, San Francisco et Stockholm pour mettre en place une reduction profonde des emissions de gaz a effet de serre--<>--par la transformation des batiments et des infrastructures energetiques urbaines pour l'efficacite energetique et l'approvisionnement d'energie a zero ou faible intensite carbone. S'appuyant sur des entretiens, l'analyse de documents de politiques publiques et des visites de sites d'immeubles et d'infrastructures energetiques, cet article analyse comment la decarbonisation en profondeur est incorporee dans les batiments urbains, les systemes energetiques et les institutions. Il fait valoir que les praticiens trouvent des moyens de creer de nouveaux developpements a zero ou faibles emissions de carbone, mais ceux-ci ont du mal a corriger la trajectoire historique de developpement avec l'amelioration energetique. Cet article examine les solutions et les defis mis en evidence par la pratique de la decarbonisation urbaine qui cible les batiments existants, a partir desquels d'autres villes peuvent apprendre. Quatre lecons principales pour la renovation a faibles emissions ou carboneutre sont soulignees: 1) transferer les objectifs principaux des proprietaries aux proprietaries de plusieurs batiments, 2) elargir la gamme de ressources disponibles pour soutenir les ameliorations de la reduction des emissions de carbone, 3) experimenter et enseigner en utilisant les investissements publics et 4) institutionnaliser les rapports sur l'energie et le carbone lies aux objectifs des services municipaux. Compte tenu de la necessite de renover les batiments dans une optique de sobriete carbone, d'efficacite et de resilience face a la crise climatique, il est suggere d'intensifier l'action en considerant les batiments et les infrastructures energetiques comme une priorite pour les investissements publics dans les infrastructures. Mots cles: urbain; villes; changement climatique; decarbonisation, Introduction It is increasingly clear that urban climate change mitigation features diverse and multi-level action driven by actors from across government, industry and non-profit sectors. In this context, a number [...]

Understanding seasonal climatic conditions is critical for better management of resources such as water, energy, and agriculture. Recently, there has been a great interest in utilizing the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods in climate studies. This paper presents cutting-edge deep-learning models (UNet++, ResNet, PSPNet, and DeepLabv3) trained by state-of-the-art global CMIP6 models to forecast global temperatures a month ahead using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. ERA5 dataset was also used for fine-tuning as well performance analysis in the validation dataset. Ten different setups (with CMIP6 and CMIP6 + ERA5 fine-tuning) including six meteorological parameters (i.e., 2 m temperature, 10 m eastward component of wind, 10 m northward component of wind, geopotential height at 500 hPa, mean sea-level pressure, and precipitation flux) and elevation were used with both four different algorithms. For each model 14 different sequential and nonsequential temporal settings were used. The mean absolute error (MAE) analysis revealed that UNet++ with CMIP6 with 2 m temperature + elevation and ERA5 fine-tuning model with “Year 3 Month 2” temporal case provided the best outcome with an MAE of 0.7. Regression analysis over the validation dataset between the ERA5 data values and the corresponding AI model predictions revealed slope and R² values close to 1 suggesting a very good agreement. The AI model predicts significantly better than the mean CMIP6 ensemble between 2016 and 2021. Both models predict the summer months more accurately than the winter months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of vulnerability is well established in the climate change literature, underpinning significant research effort. The ability of vulnerability research to capture the complexities of climate-society dynamics has been increasingly questioned, however. In this paper, we identify, characterize, and evaluate concerns over the use of vulnerability approaches in the climate change field based on a review of peer-reviewed articles published since 1990 (n = 587). Seven concerns are identified: neglect of social drivers, promotion of a static understanding of human-environment interactions, vagueness about the concept of vulnerability, neglect of cross-scale interactions, passive and negative framing, limited influence on decision-making, and limited collaboration across disciplines. Examining each concern against trends in the literature, we find some of these concerns weakly justified, but others pose valid challenges to vulnerability research. Efforts to revitalize vulnerability research are needed, with priority areas including developing the next generation of empirical studies, catalyzing collaboration across disciplines to leverage and build on the strengths of divergent intellectual traditions involved in vulnerability research, and linking research to the practical realities of decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phenomenon of global warming is raising concerns in the U.S. and abroad as scientific studies report that potentially costly climate changes are to take place. For the U.S. in particular, it is expected that the 2008 presidential elections will shift the U.S. approach to global warming. Using externality theory, public goods, and game theory, this paper provides a theoretical, economic analysis of different responses to global warming. It concludes that a science and technology based market strategy is superior to a regulatory approach under the assumptions of a flat social marginal benefit curve and uncertainty about the costs and benefits of pollution reduction. However, the paper argues that an adequate carbon tax or a capand- trade system can stimulate firms to turn to green production, depending on their response to the regulatory regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The failure of states to take the necessary actions to prevent global temperatures from soaring may be interpreted as more than an act of environmental negligence. In terms of a knowing imposition of harm, it also represents an act of domination. That is, a deliberate denial of rights to a safe, democratic, and sustainable future. This paper notes the role played by institutional power in preserving this system of domination and in shaping the discursive spaces in which carbon energy options continue to be vigorously defended even in the face of mounting evidence of their danger. Yet as signs of eco-distress grow stronger, so too does a questioning of the legitimacy of this power order. This paper examines how youth employ 'communicative power', as the product of a common will formed in non-coercive communication, to counter this domination and reinterpret climate change as the product of dysfunctional decision-making and 'abnormal' justice relations between generations. It notes the significance of these actors' mobilization efforts to societal processes of learning about democracy's better potentialities and capacities to transform society from within (via law). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increase in energy demand and consumption is one of the significant challenges of the world community. Global climate change and temperature rise can significantly affect energy demand, especially in the building sector. Green passive design strategies (GPDS) such as green roof and green wall are considered a passive energy-saving technology which can deal with further climate change in near future. This paper compares the energy demand and CO2 emissions of a building with different structural scenarios during the current (2000–2019) and future climatic conditions (the 2050s) in two hot-dry (Kerman) and hot-humid (BandarAbbas) climate samples in Iran. The base case, green roof, and green wall modeling of the selected building have been developed by DesignBuilder software. Results revealed that 61% of the annual energy consumption of Kerman is related to the heating sector, while it will be changed to 47% under the effect of climate change and based on RCP2.6. However, 99% of the annual energy consumption of BandarAbbas belongs to cooling demand and it will not change by 2050s. Also, the maximum heating and cooling energy demand were calculated for the base building. Based on the results, green wall has more efficiency in optimizing total energy consumption compared to green roof in both climate types. On the other hand, GPDS are more efficient to optimize heating energy demand in comparison with cooling energy demand. Furthermore, the green wall strategy has better performance in reducing CO2 emissions as well. Accordingly, CO2 emissions reduce in Kerman by 2.73% and 2.93% by the implementation of the green wall during the observation period and 2050s, respectively. Meanwhile, this strategy can reduce CO2 emissions by only 1% per year in BandarAbbas during all studied periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a four-step process to guide national governments in formulating and explaining greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The NDC pledges in aggregate are intended to achieve the Paris Agreement's warming limit goal to hold the increase in the global temperature to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Nations also agreed in the Paris Agreement that their mitigation pledges would be based on equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances. This paper describes the four steps that are required to fulfil these commitments, and to ensure that the NDCs are sufficiently transparent to allow the Paris Agreement's 'stocktake' process and 'transparency mechanism' to achieve their goal of increasing the NDCs' ambition and fairness. The four steps are necessary to implement the legal obligations of the parties under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. These four steps are: (i) Select a global warming limit to be achieved by the GHG emissions reduction target; (2) Identify a global carbon budget consistent with achieving the global warming limit at an acceptable probability; (3) Determine the national fair share of the global carbon budget based upon equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities; and, (4) Specify the annual rate of national GHG emissions reductions on the pathway to net zero emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing emissions from forest degradation and deforestation, conserving and enhancing forest carbon stocks, and sustainably managing forests (REDD+) has emerged as one of the most anticipated climate change mitigation tools. This paper aims to understand and identify the underlying discourses that have dominated the emergence of REDD+, by identifying the key story lines in the policy and academic debates on REDD+. As such, this paper takes a step away from the 'fine-tuning' of policy recommendations and instead studies REDD+ from a more theoretical approach with the intent to provide a critical analysis of the ideational structures that shape the policies that have emerged around REDD+. The analysis shows that ecological modernization and its accompanying story lines constitute a dominant notion of REDD+ as being able to manage the complexities of forest in a synergetic way, combining cost-efficient and effective mitigation with sustainable development. The paper also identifies the critical counter discourse of civic environmentalism, which criticizes this notion of REDD+ and instead promotes issues such as equity, the importance of local knowledge, and the participatory process. It argues that reducing deforestation involves trade-offs between economic, ecological, and social dimensions, also arguing that REDD+ fits overwhelmingly with the interest of the global North. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been recognised as an important policy issue that affects nature and socio-economic systems of all continents and oceans over the last few decades. In order to achieve the ambitious goal of ‘keeping a global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels’ by the Paris Agreement agreed at COP 21 in 2015, formulation and implementation of climate change policies, especially mitigation ones to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recently advanced all over the world. Russia, as one of the largest energy-resource rich countries and GHG emitters, has been also in the process of modernisation towards a low-carbon society, especially after the occurrence of global financial crisis in 2008-2009. Under this circumstance, the formulation and implementation of climate change policies have recently begun in earnest in Russia through its signature on and ratification of the Paris Agreement effective in 2016. These policies in Russia, however, often end in failure. In this context, this present paper firstly clarifies the current situation of climate change and its causes such as GHG and air pollutants emissions in Russia, followed by the critical consideration of previous studies on this global thematic issue. By revisiting the formulation and implementation process of Russian climate change policies with a special focus on its multi-stakeholders, this paper tries to explain why these policies are not materialised in Russia, that is, factors influencing on its policy failure. Throughout a series of analysis, it becomes clear in this paper that Russian environmental administration has been weakened whilst the government spending with environmental purposes on a downward trend in Russia after starting market transition in the 1990s. This paper also derives that institutional arrangements in the governmental committees enable Russian oil and gas companies to do lobbying for reflecting their interests on relevant policies. Besides, it becomes unveiled that residents and civil society organisations (CSOs), as one of representative protesters demanding policy reforms through social movements, have an insignificant influence on climate change policies in the case of Russia. This paper then concludes that these factors are crucial propositions given to Russian climate change policies to materialise its transition towards a low-carbon society as well as big challenges to be overcome for its future sustainable growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and atmospheric CO2 content has been shown earlier not to characterize causal relationships in the Earth system in the general case. Specifically, the sign of this phase shift under nongreenhouse radiative forcing changes depends on the time scale of this forcing. This paper analyzes the phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and the atmospheric CO2 content under synchronous external emissions of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere on the basis of numerical experiments with the IAP RAS climatic model and a conceptual climate model with carbon cycle. For a sufficiently large time scale of external forcing, the changes in lag relative to the corresponding changes in Tg. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a + 1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a > 2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than + 1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the + 1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a + 1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement is built on a tension between the common goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C and the differentiation that follows from the principle of equity. Scientific expertise is commonly seen as providing important means to overcome this tension, for example in the Agreement’s “global stocktake”, which is said to be undertaken “in the light of equity and the best available science”. This raises the question of how scholarly communities best can contribute to deliberations on equitable differentiation in the effort required to meet common temperature goals. To discuss this question, the paper looks to the literature within Science and Technology Studies on the role of science in policymaking, where disagreement exists over the merits of “heating up” controversies through politicization, versus “cooling down” issues by seeking consensus. It assesses two cases in which scientific expertise has engaged with questions of equitable effort-sharing in international climate politics: The “Bali Box” of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, and the “Civil Society Equity Review” undertaken prior to COP21 in Paris. Based on a comparison of the two cases, it is argued that scientific contributions should not shy away from highlighting conflicts in values and interests, and that “heating up” discussions about climate justice may be a valuable contribution to overcoming the tensions of the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter ( Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659-671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature-related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better-fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates contributions to global temperature anomalies from greenhouse gas concentrations and from a source of natural variability. There is no accepted causation for the apparent interrelationships between multidecadal oscillations and regime changes in atmospheric circulation, upwelling, and the slowdowns in global surface temperatures associated with a ~60-year oscillation. Exogenous tidal forcing is hypothesized as a major causal agent for these elements, with orthogonal components in tidal forcing generating zonal and meridional regime-dependent processes in the climate system. Climate oscillations are simulated at quasi-biennial to multidecadal timescales by tidal periodicities determined by close approaches of new or full moon to the earth. Subtracting a tidal analog of the ~60-year oscillation from global mean surface temperatures reveals an exponential component comparable with greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and which is responsible for almost 90% or contemporary global temperature increases. Residual subdecadal temperature anomalies correlate with the subdecadal variability of evolved carbon dioxide (CO2), ENSO activity and tidal components, and indicate a causal sequence from tidal forcing to greenhouse gas (GHG) release to temperature increase. Tidal periodicities can all be expressed in terms of four fundamental frequencies. Because of the potential importance of this formulation, tests are urged using general circulation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Place branding and marketing has become essential for the promotion of tourist destinations. Yet despite the significance of environmental attributes for place branding there is surprisingly little research on the impacts of climate change on place brand values. The paper examines these issues with respect to the development of Santa-related place myths in high-latitude place branding strategies and highlights the way in which the Santa place myth is built on the social construction of Santa's winter home replete with snow, pine trees and reindeer. The imagined country of Christmas is, therefore, regarded as extremely susceptible to climate change and while some locations seek to guarantee snow security to tourists others may be more marginal. The paper, therefore, concludes that from a tourism marketing and planning standpoint, it is essential that the immaterial dimensions of destination promotion, such as place branding, require as much attention with respect to the effects of climate change as do the material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the geographic latitude and proximity to the Aegean and Adriatic Sea, in a sense Macedonia belongs to the Mediterranean climate, but because of the stress relief it has a variable climate. These climatic features are presented with essentially the Pollog hollow where Sharr, Korab, and Rudoka mountains, on the border with Albania, measures to prevent infiltration of humid air coming from the Adriatic Sea. Therefore, due to this the Pollog hollow is characterized with not a lot of precipitation such as the Adriatic coast. The distribution of air pressure has significant influence on thermal conditions and climate in this hollow. Pressing air in January mainly declines moving toward the South, while in July is moving toward the southeast. In relation to this, air currents are directed to these directions. Air currents during the summer and winter move from larger geographical width toward smaller ones and thereby reduce the temperature influence: Although, the character of the climate over certain areas is influenced by many factors, in this paper particular attention will be given to changes of temperature, winds, air, humidity and rainfalls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an unprecedented set of high‐resolution climate simulations, consisting of a 500‐year pre‐industrial control simulation and a 250‐year historical and future climate simulation from 1850 to 2100. A high‐resolution configuration of the Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3) is used for the simulations with a nominal horizontal resolution of 0.25° for the atmosphere and land models and 0.1° for the ocean and sea‐ice models. At these resolutions, the model permits tropical cyclones and ocean mesoscale eddies, allowing interactions between these synoptic and mesoscale phenomena with large‐scale circulations. An overview of the results from these simulations is provided with a focus on model drift, mean climate, internal modes of variability, representation of the historical and future climates, and extreme events. Comparisons are made to solutions from an identical set of simulations using the standard resolution (nominal 1°) CESM1.3 and to available observations for the historical period to address some key scientific questions concerning the impact and benefit of increasing model horizontal resolution in climate simulations. An emerging prominent feature of the high‐resolution pre‐industrial simulation is the intermittent occurrence of polynyas in the Weddell Sea and its interaction with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Overall, high‐resolution simulations show significant improvements in representing global mean temperature changes, seasonal cycle of sea‐surface temperature and mixed layer depth, extreme events and in relationships between extreme events and climate modes. Plain Language Summary: Although the current generation of climate models has demonstrated high fidelity in simulating and projecting global temperature change, these models show large uncertainties when it comes to questions concerning how rising global temperatures will impact local weather conditions. This is because the resolution (~100 km) at which the majority of climate models simulate the climate is not fine enough to resolve these small‐scale regional features. Conducting long‐term (multi‐centuries) high‐resolution (~10 km) climate simulations has been a great challenge for the research community due to the extremely high computational demands. Through international collaboration, we are able to address this challenge by delivering an unprecedented set of multi‐century high‐resolution climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), capable of directly representing tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall events. In this paper, we give an overall assessment of the value and benefit of the high‐resolution CESM climate simulations by making a direct comparison to an identical set of low‐resolution CESM simulations. We showcase some of the major improvements of the high‐resolution CESM in simulating global mean temperature changes, seasonal cycle of sea‐surface temperature, and extreme events, such as tropical cyclones and relationships between tropical cyclones and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation. Key Points: An unprecedented set of multi‐century high‐resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations is describedHigh‐resolution CESM simulations reveal a potential role of Southern Ocean polynyas in multidecadal climate variabilityHigh‐resolution CESM exhibits significantly improved simulations of extreme events, such as tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To avoid climate change catastrophe, the world must rapidly transform its economy away from fossil fuels. But to achieve this historically unprecedented task, the news industry must also transform, urged [...]

In a recent, widely covered press release, Larry Fink, chief executive of the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, pledged significant resources toward developing sustainable investing, for example by offering [...]

Remnant populations of Betula papyrifera Marshall have persisted in the Great Plains after the Wisconsin Glaciation along the Niobrara River Valley, Nebraska. Population health has declined in recent years, which has been hypothesized to be due to climate change. We used dendrochronological techniques to assess the response of B. papyrifera to microclimate (1950-2014) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from satellite imagery (Landsat 5 TM (1985-2011) and MODIS (2000-2014)) as a proxy for population health. Growing-season streamflow and precipitation were positively correlated with raw and standardized tree-ring widths and basal area increment increase. Increasing winter and spring temperatures were unfavorable for tree growth, while increasing summer temperatures were favorable in the absence of drought. The strongest predictor for standardized tree rings was the Palmer Drought Severity Index, suggesting that B. papyrifera is highly responsive to a combination of temperature and water availability. The NDVI from the vegetation community was positively correlated with standardized tree-ring growth, indicating the potential of these techniques to be used as a proxy for ex situ monitoring of B. papyrifera. These results aid in forecasting the dynamics of the species in the face of climate variability and change in both remnant populations and across its current distribution in northern latitudes of North America. Key words: paper birch, tree rings, riparian, MODIS, Landsat, NDVI, water, temperature, Nebraska Sandhills. Des populations reliques de Betula papyrifera Marshall ont persiste dans les grandes plaines apres la glaciation du Wisconsin le long de la vallee de la riviere Niobrara, au Nebraska. L'etat de sante des populations s'est deteriore au cours des recentes annees, vraisemblablement a cause des changements climatiques. Nous avons utilise les techniques dendrochronologiques pour evaluer la reaction de B. papyrifera au microclimat (1950-2014), ainsi que l'indice de vegetation NDVI derive de l'imagerie satellitaire (Landsat 5 TM (1985-2011) et MODIS (2000-2014)) en tant que substitut refletant l'etat de sante des populations. La precipitation et l'ecoulement fluvial durant la saison se croissance etaient positivement correles avec l'augmentation de l'accroissement de la surface terriere et la largeur brute et standardisee des cernes annuels. L'augmentation des temperatures hivernales et printanieres etait defavorable pour la croissance des arbres tandis que l'augmentation des temperatures estivales etait favorable en l'absence de secheresse. Le meilleur predicteur pour les cernes annuels standardises etait l'indice de severite de la secheresse de Palmer, ce qui indique que B. papyrifera est tres sensible aune combinaison de temperature et de disponibilite de l'eau. L'indice NDVI de la communaute vegetale etait positivement correle a la croissance des cernes annuels standardises, ce qui indique que ces techniques peuvent etre utilisees comme substitut pour le suivi ex situ de B. papyrifera. Ces resultats vont aider a predire la dynamique de cette espece face aux changements climatiques tant dans les populations reliques que partout dans son aire de repartition actuelle sous les latitudes septentrionales de l'Amerique du Nord. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: bouleau blanc, cernes annuels, riverain, MODIS, Landsat, indice de vegetation NDVI, eau, temperature, dunes du Nebraska., 1. Introduction Paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marshall) is a widely distributed deciduous tree species across continental North America. It grows in the boreal forest from Newfoundland in eastern Canada all [...]

This paper examines the performance of three climate re-analysis datasets in Angola, namely the ERA-40, NCEP-r1 and JRA-55, by comparing annual and seasonal estimates of precipitation, surface air temperature and evaporation with ground observation measurements. The observational dataset describes a region poorly covered by international climate databases and it is believed that most of its data have not been used in the data assimilation procedures of the climate models. This paper therefore provides a fresh look at the performance of these climate re-analysis datasets in a vast area where distance and civil war have hindered ground monitoring efforts. The re-analysis exercises offer better temperature estimates than precipitation estimates. When offered, the evaporation estimates from all three products are very poor. The three products are able to describe the main features of the spatial distribution of average annual precipitation and temperature, but struggle to reproduce the temporal changes of these variables. The results from a set of performance criteria show that the correlation between the observed ground measurements and re-analysis estimates is poor overall and the NSE values indicate that the average measured value at each location is usually a better estimate than the re-analysis estimate.EDITOR A. CastellarinASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological sensitivity is the change in global-mean precipitation per degree of global-mean temperature change. This paper shows that the hydrological sensitivity of the response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing is distinct from that of the combined response to all other forcings and that this difference is sufficient to infer the associated cooling in global-mean temperature. This result is demonstrated using temperature and precipitation data generated by climate models and is robust across different climate models. Remarkably, greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling can be estimated in a model without using any spatial or temporal gradient information in the response, provided temperature data are augmented by precipitation data. Over the late twentieth century, the hydrological sensitivities of climate models differ significantly from that of observations. Whether this discrepancy can be attributed to observational error, which is substantial as different estimates of global-mean precipitation are not even significantly correlated with each other, or to model error is unclear. The results highlight the urgency to construct accurate estimates of global precipitation from past observations and for reducing model uncertainty in hydrological sensitivity. This paper also clarifies that previous estimates of hydrological sensitivity are limited in that standard regression methods neglect temperature-precipitation relations that occur through internal variability. An alternative method for estimating hydrological sensitivity that overcomes this limitation is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2000 a panel of the U.S. National Research Council in a report with the same title suggested, among other things, that a "substantial disparity remains" between the observed warming rates of the surface and troposphere. Also, in 2000, the climate models showed more warming of the tropical atmosphere than was observed. Many papers have been written since then. We discuss the most recent papers on this subject and using the latest data show that the differences remain unresolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal flood impacts. We focus on a scenario that stabilizes concentrations at 450 ppm-CO-eq leading to 42 cm of global mean sea-level rise in 1995-2100 (GMSLR) and an unmitigated one leading to 63 cm of GMSLR. We also consider sensitivity scenarios reflecting increased tropical cyclone activity and a GMSLR of 126 cm. The only adaptation considered is upgrading and maintaining dikes. Under the unmitigated scenario and without adaptation, the number of people flooded reaches 168 million per year in 2100. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.4, adaptation by factor 461 and both options together by factor 540. The global annual flood cost (including dike upgrade cost, maintenance cost and residual damage cost) reaches US$ 210 billion per year in 2100 under the unmitigated scenario without adaptation. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.3, adaptation by factor 5.2 and both options together by factor 7.8. When assuming adaptation, the global annual flood cost relative to GDP falls throughout the century from about 0.06 % to 0.01-0.03 % under all scenarios including the sensitivity ones. From this perspective, adaptation to coastal flood impacts is meaningful to be widely applied irrespective of the level of mitigation. From the perspective of a some less-wealthy and small island countries, however, annual flood cost can amount to several percent of national GDP and mitigation can lower these costs significantly. We conclude that adaptation and mitigation are complimentary policies in coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO THE PROBLEM: THE GROWING AWARENESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS LINK TO CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS HAVE CAUSED CONCERNS IN THE COMMUNITY. A substantial amount of carbon dioxide emitted is due to the energy consumed by residential households. Heating/cooling of a residential house consumes a large proportion of the total household energy. Purpose: This paper explores the concept by comparing thermal efficiency of the four most common external wall structures, with varying amounts of insulation added in the context of Sydney, Australia. Design/methodology/approach: Cost and thermal analysis for each wall type are calculated. Life cycle cost saving and payback period are then evaluated. Findings: It is found that up to 95.7% cost saving can be achieved in heating/cooling in comparing the use of insulated wall systems and air film. Cement sheet wall system is found to be the most cost effective wall system for insulation with minimum 50% of cost saving can be achieved. The results also identify substantial energy cost required for heating/cooling a house without insulation when the climate gets extreme. The payback period for the installation of the insulated wall systems can be achieved in 4.98 years for normal climate condition or 2.58 years for extreme climate condition. Practical implications: The community is currently at great risk of being unable to deal with climate change issue as not clear the effective use of insulated wall systems. This paper can help provide insight and suggestions for residential households in tackling global warming issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data-driven prediction of time series is significant in many scientific research fields such as global climate change and weather forecast. For global monthly mean temperature series, considering the strong potential of deep neural network for extracting data features, this paper proposes a data-driven model, ResGraphNet, which improves the prediction accuracy of time series by an embedded residual module in GraphSAGE layers. The experimental results of a global mean temperature dataset, HadCRUT5, show that compared with 11 traditional prediction technologies, the proposed ResGraphNet obtains the best accuracy. The error indicator predicted by the proposed ResGraphNet is smaller than that of the other 11 prediction models. Furthermore, the performance on seven temperature data sets shows the excellent generalization of the ResGraphNet. Finally, based on our proposed ResGraphNet, the predicted 2022 annual anomaly of global temperature is 0.74722 °C, which provides confidence for limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change adaptation planning moves beyond short term National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) to longer-term approaches, it is instructive to review the NAPA process and examine how well it was linked to national development planning. This paper reviews 41 NAPAs submitted by Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to assess the NAPA process in terms of NAPAs integration with countries' national development strategies. The review outlines the actors involved in developing NAPAs and identifies the range of interventions included in countries' priority adaptation actions. The paper uses the example of population as an issue related to both climate change and national development to assess how it is addressed as part of LDCs' adaptation and national development agendas. The analysis shows that although countries recognize population pressure as an issue related to the ability to cope with climate change and as a factor hindering progress inmeeting development goals, it is not well incorporated into either adaptation planning or in national development strategies. Among the 41 NAPAs, 37 link high and rapid population growth to climate change. Moreover, six NAPAs clearly state that slowing population growth or investments in reproductive health/ family planning (RH/FP) should be considered among the country's priority adaptation actions. Furthermore, two NAPAs actually propose a project with components of RH/FP among their priority adaptation interventions, although none of them has yet been funded. The paper points to structural issues that hamper better alignment between climate change adaptation and national development planning and offers recommendations for longer-term adaptation strategies that better meet the development needs of countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy production has come under increasing scrutiny as concerns about energy security and climate change have risen. In the UK changes in government structure and privatisation of the electricity industry have led to the emergence of multi-level governance. This means that decisions on how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity-generating sector should no longer be solely a national policy decision. Previous studies have sought to explore how renewable energy may develop under multi-level governance, but this paper pays attention to a traditional fossil fuel source, coal, which is still an important means of electricity generation. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel and advocates argue that carbon capture and storage techniques could make coal ‘clean’, paving the way for a long-term, secure and low emission way to produce energy. This study focuses on the Yorkshire and Humber Region, which has had a long association with coal mining and looks at the implications of this as the region seeks to develop a climate change action plan and an energy strategy within the new regional governance structures. The paper argues that the regional networks developed to address climate change are influenced by existing social power structures and alliances. The region as a territorial structure becomes a useful device in promoting national priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large amount of processes, which are physical, chemical and biological, are related to the global climate, which is the main component of climate change. These processes transform the global environment into a complicated situation. Climate change is the most large-scale and wellknown vexed question. This paper presents a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to predict the relationship between the causes and effects of climate change. Here, CO2 (Carbon Dioxide), Global Temperature Changes, Snow Cover, Percentage of Forestlands, Natural Forces, and Net Radiation are considered as important factors and FIS inputs while the considered FIS outputs are: Ozone Layer Changes, Arctic Ice Sheet Level, Permafrost Level, and Sea Level. The proposed FIS is tested on realistic scenarios and the results are in agreement with results from other authors' approaches. However, the use of a FIS allows to include elements of uncertainty and vagueness in the input variables considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is about the identification of the changing world climate drivers and speculation concerning the future impact such drivers will have on countries in the southern hemisphere, especially Australia and New Zealand. A focus for the above is a case study of climate change which has induced severe hardships in the Bendigo region of Victoria, Australia. The authors are of the opinion this experience, in this extremely climate sensitive agricultural area, is a forerunner to what could occur to many regions in the southern hemisphere. The case study shows the vulnerability of communities to instruments of governance established during periods of stability and urges the urgent need for modified governance instruments during periods of rapid climatic change. The paper commences the discussion about the meaning, relevance and reality of sustainability for communities during times of climatic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present-day arctic flora replaced Arcto-Tertiary forest when global temperatures dropped markedly towards the end of the Pliocene 3-4 million years ago. During the Quaternary (from 1.8 mya) recurrent cycles of ice ages (glaciations) interspersed with shorter warmer periods (interglacials) have caused arctic and alpine plants to experience frequent range fragmentations and expansions. The application of molecular phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis, along with an accumulating body of pollen and macrofossil evidence, is providing a greater understanding of the nature and effects of these events. To report what is new in this regard and also to assess what changes might lie ahead as a result of rapid climate warming, a Botanical Society of Scotland Symposium was held in June 2007 at the University of St Andrews on the History, evolution and future of arctic and alpine flora. This special issue contains papers based on presentations given at this meeting. Its aim is to highlight the fusion of recent fossil, molecular and ecological evidence that has advanced our understanding of events that moulded the origin and composition of arctic and alpine floras. In addition, a brief assessment is made of the future of these floras in a rapidly warming world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few years, the political discussion on global change has become focused on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and anthropogenic CO2 emissions, as well as on scientific data of climate change, and on new rules and regulation. This paper puts CO2 emissions into the wider context of sustainability. This broadens the view and changes the focus to issues of global ethics and the necessity for industrial countries to drastically reduce their resource consumption. Insurance companies can influence global climate change (GCC) directly through their investment and underwriting strategies, but also in daily operations. An overview and examples are given in the paper. The biggest impact insurance might have is in helping to speed up the adaptation to GCC, for instance by making available its pool of knowledge in prevention measures through risk engineering services. By promoting a stricter application of the concept of “insurability of risks”, politicians could exploit the link between insurance, technological innovation and sustainable development to develop numerous opportunities within the market economy. A rapid adaptation to the challenges of GCC will give industrialised countries a competitiveness pull, or enable less developed countries to leapfrog industrialised countries. But the key to a new vision of the future may be the development of a holistic view of nature, man and climate, and science and technology as a source of innovative ideas and solutions.The Geneva Papers (2008) 33, 507–529. doi:10.1057/gpp.2008.21 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose — In 2007, the issues of global and climate change in particular, have become major issues in the social psyche. With the United Nations declaring 2008 the "International Year of Planet Earth", this; paper aims to look at four recent reports and comments on how the reports aim to deal with the climate and global change challenges ahead. Design/methodology/approach — After a brief introduction to the subject, this paper looks at each of the four reports in turn. It describes the methodology of each report and then discusses its relative strengths and weaknesses. This is followed by a conclusion on the reports as a whole and where policy makers can make improvements. Findings — All four reports are well structured and they have certainly raised the profile and illustrated the importance of global and climate change. However, there are a number of ways each could and should be improved in future updates. Practical implications — This paper aims to bring the reports to a wider audience and make recommendations on improvements to future reports on these important global issues. Originality/value — The paper evaluates four recent reports on the important social issues of global, change and climate change. By comparing and contrasting the reports, the paper gives an overview 01 what some of the larger policy makers are doing to tackle global and climate change. The paper also makes recommendations for improvements to the reports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate is an aggregate of the mean and variability of a range of meteorological variables, notably temperature (T) and precipitation (P). While the impacts of an increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are commonly quantified through changes in regional means and extreme value distributions, a concurrent shift in the shapes of the distributions of daily T and P is arguably equally important. Here, we employ a 30‐member ensemble of coupled climate model simulations (CESM1 LENS) to consistently quantify the changes of regionally and seasonally resolved probability density functions of daily T and P as function of GMST. Focusing on aggregate regions covering both populated and rural zones, we identify large regional and seasonal diversity in the probability density functions and quantify where CESM1 projects the most noticeable changes compared to the preindustrial era. As global temperature increases, Europe and the United States are projected to see a rapid reduction in wintertime cold days, and East Asia to experience a strong increase in intense summertime precipitation. Southern Africa may see a shift to a more intrinsically variable climate but with little change in mean properties. The sensitivities of Arctic and African intrinsic variability to GMST are found to be particularly high. Our results highlight the need to further quantify future changes to daily temperature and precipitation distributions as an integral part of preparing for the societal and ecological impacts of climate change and show how large ensemble simulations can be a useful tool for such research. Plain Language Summary: The weather varies naturally from day to day and between regions, seasons, and years. Ecosystems and our society are both adapted to the average weather conditions of a given place and to how variable the temperature and rainfall amounts are around that average. As the global surface temperature changes, whether through natural cycles or human interference, so may this variability. In this paper, we investigate changes to the distributions of daily temperature and rainfall for different levels of surface temperature increase. By using a large set of simulations from the same climate model, we estimate their means and shapes, currently and in the near future. We find that in parts of Europe and the United States, wintertime cold days will disappear more rapidly with global warming than hot days increase, leading to a less variable climate state. In Africa and the Arctic, however, climate conditions will rapidly transition out of the range of preindustrial variability and into a climate state not yet experienced by modern society. We emphasize that in order to prepare for the impacts of climate change, we need information about changes to average properties and to extreme events and about the potential changes to daily variability itself. Key Points: Daily temperature and precipitation distributions from CESM1 Large Ensemble are shown to be functions of region, season, and surface temperatureLarge differences are found in regional distributions, where they are particularly sensitive to surface temperature anomalyWe identify regions where global warming may rapidly shift seasonal climate away from preindustrial conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given current emissions trends an increase in global temperatures in excess of 2°C is highly likely in the coming century. In this context, it seems increasingly probable that states may consider solar geoengineering as a stop-gap climate response. Solar geoengineering refers to measures that aim to alleviate some measure of global warming by intentionally increasing the amount of the sun's energy that is reflected into space. Currently the two most discussed solar geoengineering techniques involve either marine cloud brightening or dispersing aerosols in the stratosphere. These techniques could be relatively inexpensive, are within the technological capacities (after a brief period of development) of technologically-advanced countries, and could have an almost immediate impact on temperatures. Yet, while solar geoengineering might potentially be utilised to manage some climate-linked security threats, it itself would create new security challenges. Consequently, this paper explores potential international security implications for Australia if a regional state, or group of states, initiates a solar geoengineering program. We conclude that since solar geoengineering is unlikely to become a first-order international issue, disputation over solar geoengineering will likely reflect, or act as a proxy for, wider patterns of state interaction. However, scenarios in which China and the United States take different positions, or in which there are divisions among regional powers, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Singapore would pose the greatest threat to Australia's national security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on investigating the role that sustainability entrepreneurship may have in engendering a shift in the practices and operations of contemporary capitalism. Sustainability entrepreneurs are increasingly seen as being in the vanguard of a shift to a new form of capitalist development that can help to address fears over global warming, climate change and their associated negative environmental impacts. Such developments can be set within a wider popular and academic discourse of ecological modernisation, at the heart of which is a relatively optimistic view of the potential for technological change to lead to solutions for environmental problems. This paper focuses on a subset of sustainable entrepreneurs termed 'ecopreneurs' who seek to combine business practice with sustainable development and so transform their business sectors. The paper suggests that work on sustainable entrepreneurship could be substantially improved by an engagement with the literature on transition management in science and technology studies and makes some suggestions as to how such a research agenda could be advanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]