Search

This contribution examines Sismondi's money, banking and credit theories and explores his public debt analysis (1803–1838) to connect the instability of market economy with his vision of the social contract. A detailed analysis is offered of the evolution in Sismondi's opinion on the nature of money and the banking system, and the part it plays in his trade cycle theory. Sismondi's monetary thought is then contextualised with a discussion of his policy-mix in relation to the Napoleonic war financing in Continental Europe. Connections with the upcoming flood of literature in England on the bullion controversy are also offered. Remarks are then suggested on the progressive emergence of an "art of public borrowing" according to which the people who provide the money also control the government. Finally, some reflections are proposed on the explicit connection established by Sismondi between budget deficits, the (ab-)use of inconvertible paper money and the partial collapse of the social contract initiated by banks and the governments using it. The entrenched instability of a market economy (discussed in an earlier article) is reinforced by the banking/credit system that works along similar line than any wealth-producing firm. Hence, thanks to the financial system, wealth does grow faster but at the expense of social justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the factors that contribute to productivity, growth, and development in India and beyond. It highlights the importance of innovation behavior, productivity and efficiency of the MSME sector, firm exit decisions, low labor productivity, non-performing financial sector assets, cross-border mergers, and the creation of decent employment. The article also emphasizes the role of productivity growth in accelerating economic growth and improving people's welfare. It examines specific issues such as firms' performance and innovation, technical efficiency of banks, characteristics of innovative firms, financial accessibility for MSMEs, firm exit in manufacturing industries, the impact of cross-border mergers on innovation efforts, and productivity disparities across Indian states. [Extracted from the article]

Land supply in China is planned by governments, and the supply ratios of various types of land are in relatively rigid administrative control. This paper constructs a DSGE model to study the relationship between land supply marketization in China and economic fluctuations. Moreover, this paper evaluates the social welfare gains from land marketization. We document that the government's land planning constraint impacts consumption and social welfare through the land price and final output, causing resource misallocation losses in aggregate investment and output. Quantitatively, the optimal upper limit of industrial land supply is about 40% to achieve the maximum social welfare. This paper stresses the necessity of revitalizing China's land market, and simultaneously speeding up the marketization of collectively operated construction land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 16(3) (2021) in order to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends and knowledge. The first paper analyses the economic consequences of the rise and spread of the Covid-19 virus in the Brazilian state of São Paulo. The second paper presents a multi-regional generalized RAS technique to update input–output tables. The third paper investigates which European Union regions are most likely to be exposed to external shocks and which are more resilient. The fourth paper proposes a new neighbourhood inequality index for cities. The fifth paper analyses productivity and profitability using a sophisticated hierarchical model applied to a huge data set of individual firms. The sixth paper contains an empirical analysis on the choice of the national capital city location among 80 potential candidates in China over a period of 2240 years. The seventh paper explains political ideology at the municipality level in Switzerland based on 312 federal referendums between 1981 and 2017. The eighth paper examines the driving forces of business cycle synchronization among the 49 US states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a 2019 article published in this journal, Kyer and Maggs examined the frequency and characteristics of double-dip recessions and multi-dip recessions for 21 countries during the 1960:1 to 2014:4 period. A review of Kyer and Maggs generated a number of questions about a particular feature of their business cycle dating methodology. Specifically, they determined that a recession ends once real gross domestic product returns to or exceeds the previous peak level of real gross domestic product. To demonstrate the impact this nontraditional feature of their methodology has on their results and conclusions, this paper repeats their analysis where, in contrast to Kyer and Maggs, it is assumed that a recession ends once the economy reaches the trough quarter in a business cycle. The application of this more traditional feature of business cycle dating methodology to the same countries and sample period yields results that do not support their conclusions about either the frequency of double-dip recessions or the number of countries in their sample that experienced multi-dip recessions. This paper first shows that double-dip recessions represent just 7.2% of all recessions and, therefore, are not as common as Kyer and Maggs reported. Second, only five of the 21 countries experienced recessions with two or more additional dips in economic activity over the entire sample period. Finally, only six countries experienced a multi-dip recession during the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the transmission and effectiveness of the public expenditure shock across business cycle phases in the Indian economy. The empirical results suggest that the deflationary impact of the public expenditure shock and the subsequent accommodative response of interest rates exhibit a countercyclical public expenditure multiplier during the contraction period. Moreover, the large and significant negative impact of the public expenditure shock on inflation and the interest rate has resulted in a larger public expenditure multiplier during a supply-side recession than a demand-side recession. Based on empirical evidence, we suggest that policymakers consider the presence of nonlinearities in the transmission and effectiveness of the public expenditure shock while taking fiscal policy measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Invest Journal of Sharia & Economic Law is the property of Invest Journal of Sharia & Economic Law and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Finally, in the last decade of the twentieth century, the other classes of derivatives were introduced: credit derivatives, catastrophe derivatives, weather derivatives and property derivatives. The development of the theory and practice of risk management is closely related to the emergence of different risks. The rules proposed by the Basel Committee initially covered credit risk, but then grew to include market risk, operational risk and liquidity risk. This refers in particular to equity derivatives, currency derivatives, interest rate derivatives and commodity derivatives in the form of options, futures, forwards and swaps. [Extracted from the article]

This paper seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis of the monetary theory of Jean-Baptiste Say with respect to the Austrian School. Reference is given to the historical context and methodology utilized by Say in his Treatise before pivoting to an examination of his writings on money and banking. Thorough documentation and analysis are undertaken on Say's views of the emergence and nature of money, monetary phenomena, the role of the state, and banking practices. Lastly, critiques of Say's Law are addressed within the context of Say's monetary theory in addition to various business cycle theories. Ultimately, this paper seeks to explain that while Say was not a complete Austrian, a comprehensive study of his monetary theory illuminates meaningful contributions and insights that reveal the Austrian School as the intellectual heir of Say's work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the controversial topic of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and its impact on emerging, developing, and underdeveloped economies. The authors highlight that while some studies show positive effects of FDI on economic growth, others fail to find such a relationship. The article presents six papers that delve into various aspects of FDI, including its effects on economic diversification, technology transfer, innovation, global value chains, and cultural distance. The findings suggest that the relationship between FDI and economic growth is complex and context-dependent. The article concludes by suggesting future research avenues, including the role of government corruption, the interaction between FDI and human capital, and the differentiation of FDI types. [Extracted from the article]

The main objective of the present paper is to provide the reasons behind the rise and fall of resources for innovation policies in Brazil between 1999 and 2016. The paper also intends to provide a broad map of the financial relations between funding sources and financial agents in the Brazilian National System of Innovation (NSI). In order to do that, the paper uses mixed methods: a historical approach to cover the motivations of the political economy; principles of network analyses to map the institutional relations between funding sources and financial agents; and economic theory to understand the determinants of the cash flows that finance science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. The institutional arrangement of the Brazilian NSI led the financial cycle to rely, on a general level, on GDP dynamism; the strategy of selected public bodies; on the federal budget decision process; and on the external economic cycle. Between 2003 and 2014, political struggles led to economic policies that favoured GDP growth and public spending, while the opposite occurred from 2015 onwards. In general, institutions were not equipped to protect the financial resources from the political changes of the mid-2010s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the South African setting, encompassing a comprehensive analysis of historical, theoretical, and empirical evidence. Existing literature surveys demonstrate that several studies have been conducted in multiple countries to ascertain the correlation between inflation and unemployment. The review incorporated the postulations of many economic schools of thought as they are applied to South Africa. The Phillips Curve was examined in accordance with the research purpose. The process involves gathering secondary data from reputable sources such as Statistics South Africa, the South African Reserve Bank, and other reliable secondary sources to analyse this relationship. The findings are presented using linear regression, tables, and figures. The study utilised annual inflation and unemployment data in South Africa spanning from 2000 to 2022 to elucidate the correlation between inflation and unemployment. The study discovered that the link was nonlinear and did not exhibit any meaningful association or correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates differences in the views of rent negotiating landlords and retail trade tenants regarding the importance of various factors in their rent negotiations. The paper explores whether these actors' expectations are forward or backward looking as economic activity is increasing after the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, their different levels of trust in institutions, and in their counterpart as organisation and individual, are analysed. The study uses a web-based survey, gathering responses from some 100 landlords and tenants in the Swedish retail sector, and logit regressions. As demand increases after the pandemic, indicating a possibility to increase rents, the study finds that landlords are forward looking at this stage of the business cycle as regards industry developments, while tenants are backward looking or more focused on current contractual rents. Tenants focus more on vacancies and property value, which are set under pressure due to structural changes such as increased use of e-commerce and changes in working habits after the pandemic. Landlords show a higher level of trust in their counterpart as an individual than do tenants. This study contributes to an increased understanding of rent negotiations in two sectors – property and retail – that are facing structural challenges and difficulties in the wake of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, due to the rapid growth of the world's population, the demand for agricultural products and food is growing increasingly. Therefore, the agricultural supply chain optimization has been grabbed by researchers to reduce food security concerns. On the other hand, the production amount of farmers is affected by various factors, including environmental conditions. In this paper, a supply chain network is investigated by developing a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model to effectively improve economic objectives under uncertainty. Then, a scenario-based robust optimization approach is employed to deal with the uncertainty. One of the novelities of our paper is considering weather conditions and economic fluctuations in different scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed mathematical model has been confirmed by a real case study of dates farms. Dates and its by-products have a significant role in GDP, job creation, export, and the creation of various packaging and processing. Moreover, three meta-heuristic algorithms including Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and a hybrid algorithm based on them (WOA–PSO) are adapted to deal with the NP-hardness of the problems. Moreover, the parameters of the proposed algorithms are improved by the Taguchi method, and to achieve more exact measurements, sensitivity analysis is performed. Finally, the numerical results confirmed that the accuracy of the hybrid algorithm was between 1.9 and 2.8%. Therefore, this approach could be practical and efficient for solving large-sized problems. The obtained outcomes demonstrated that the planned model provides tactical considerations for the related managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the occurrence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. unconventional monetary policy affected the Chinese market. Based on a monthly data sample from 2008M1 to 2015M12, in this paper we identify U.S. and Chinese monetary policy shocks by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with multi-external instrumental variables along with principal component analysis (PCA) combined with high-frequency financial market data. The empirical results show that the unconventional monetary policies had a negative effect on China's inflation and output due to the signal effect, and China's stock and commodity markets increased in the short term. During the same period, China's monetary policy had a greater impact on the domestic economy and financial markets. The conclusion of this paper provides a significant reference for relevant departments to make decisions amidst the new wave of unconventional U.S. monetary policies due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to estimate a statistical model of the country risk determination as represented by the country price earnings ratio (PE) to identify potentially mispriced countries. It uses the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and a dummy indicator for market-related events (i.e. financial crises), both approximating the business cycle. The model is used to compare a major Asian country's (i.e. Japan) risk with Western countries' risk. Design/methodology/approach: The model used finance variables such as the systemic, non-diversifiable, risk and foreign direct investments to characterize any country risk. A random effects model with panel data estimated the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on PE. The simultaneity problem was checked using two stage least squares and some lagged independent variables. Findings: The results explained to investors the country risk contributing factors: PE was positively correlated with variables that may increase dividends and market risk premia similar to GDP growth rates and total risk and negatively correlated with variables that increase market risk, namely, nominal risk-free interest rates and financial crises. Japan's PE seemed to exceed most of the Western countries considered here, implying lower risks, lower interest rates and higher growth in the major Asian country Japan. Originality/value: This paper focuses on the effectiveness of country risk measures in predicting periods of intense instability, similar to financial crises. This study contributes a model to measure market risk premium, using PE (or inversely, the earnings yield) as a proxy variable. Investors can use this risk measure in picking less risky stocks to include in their portfolio, calling for liberalizing Asian countries' financial markets to improve their stock market capitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regarding the growth of startups that don't fail within five years of launching, the book chapter notes that, on average, firms that are 1 to 2 years old grow almost by three times as much (12 percent) as firms that are 3 to 4 years old. Secular Decline in U.S. Business Dynamism: Aggregate Impacts of Startups Startups comprise only a small portion of the total number of firms. February 2023, No. 23-06 Startups come in all shapes and sizes. In their counterfactual exercise (holding the economy's startup rate and firm age distribution constant at their 1980 values), the paper's authors find that aggregate productivity over the period 1980 to 2014 could have been 3.1 percent higher. [Extracted from the article]

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a survey of the recent literature that evaluates, in an empirical way, the distributional impacts of monetary policy. In the first two sessions, we discuss, respectively, the transmission channels of monetary policy to income distribution and the empirical strategies used to measure it. The majority of surveyed papers find that a contractionary monetary policy worsen the income distribution, and that an expansionist policy tends to improve it. Moreover, several papers found that the higher is the redistributive impact of fiscal policy, the lower is the impact of monetary policy on inequality. Another outcome with empirical support is the role of the labor share on total income: the higher is this share, the higher is the impact of monetary policy on inequality. The last point discussed is the asymmetric effects of contractionary and expansionary monetary policy. There is evidence that increases in interest rates have statistically significant effects on income distribution, whereas the effects of reductions in interest rates are not statistically different from zero. This empirical finding goes against the conventional view that the distributional effects of interest rate changes are temporary and likely to net out over the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To deleverage is one of the major tasks for the supply-side structural reform in China, and to steadily deleverage in order is the key to fending off and defusing financial risks. This paper uses the economic statistics of China around 2016 to depict the "expansion-contraction" fluctuations with Chinese macroeconomy during the deleveraging. In this realistic context, it constructs a financial business cycle model based on the financial accelerator theory and attempts to use default cost changes to introduce financial shocks and understand China's macroeconomic fluctuations in the deleveraging context in the perspective of unanticipated and anticipated shocks. Results of the numerical model simulation show that before and after the deleveraging, the fluctuations of credit, leverage ratio, credit spread and other major macroeconomic variables originate not only from the changes with unanticipated default cost. Anticipated changes with default cost can similarly explain the "expansion-contraction" macroeconomic fluctuations in recent years and offer a new perspective into the fluctuations during deleveraging. Accordingly, government, when practicing deleveraging policies, is advised to take into full consideration not only the actual changes with default cost, but also anticipated factors of financial institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania's GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short-and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aimed to investigate the cyclical dynamics of the business, credit, and investment sectors in India. This was achieved by utilizing annual data from 1980 to 2021 and investigating the impact of domestic and global financial cycles on the business cycle. The cycles were derived using the Hodrick–Prescott filter, and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and Granger causality tests were employed to establish the dynamic interactions among these cycles. The results of the study revealed a clear divergence between domestic and global financial cycles. Additionally, the SVAR analysis confirmed the presence of a long-run relationship between business, investment, and credit cycles. Notably, the findings suggest that credit cycles can provide valuable insights to manage business cycles in India. Finally, robustness checks were conducted to confirm the reliability of SVAR findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the medium and low voltage distribution network, the load form of users is complex and changeable. There are a large number of single-phase and two-phase loads connected to the distribution network, resulting in a three-phase unbalanced operation of the distribution network. With the development of the new energy, the high proportion of distributed new energy will further aggravate the three-phase imbalance of the distribution network. Therefore, this paper proposes a coordinated optimization framework of droop parameters based on the multi-converter droop control, which takes the minimum loss of the distribution network as the optimization objective, and optimizes the reference point and the slope of the VSC droop hierarchically. A small-signal stability optimization dispatching method for the VSC droop slope in the DC distribution network is proposed. By adding small-signal stability constraints to the slope optimization model, the optimal slope command and slope stability region which can ensure the small-signal stable operation of the system are obtained. Experiments show that the optimization model of the VSC small-signal stability slope can make the droop control instruction significantly improve the small-signal stability of the system to adapt to the intra-day source load power fluctuations with a small economic cost. The slope stability region pre-optimization model can provide a reliable stability slope upper limit for the slope optimization problem based on ensuring the system operation economy. The research in this paper can make full use of the flexible control ability of power electronic equipment, and then suppress the three-phase imbalance, which is of great significance to improve the security and economy of the distribution system operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The literature mostly investigates the business cycle transmission of the United Kingdom (UK) and France as a part of a wider group (e.g. European Exchange Rate Mechanism or G7), despite their historical links and regional significance. Thus, herein paper aims to analyse the inter-dependence of these economies and how a shock from one of them affects the other for the data since 1978 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, first, preliminary statistics were calculated in order to describe the historical relationship between these countries. The econometric part estimates the vector auto-regression model (VAR) to assess the inter-dependence of the economies. VAR model allows further to inspect the impulse response functions that shows the shock dynamics from one country to another. In order to verify if a shock from one of the economies is important to another, the study uses granger causality test. Findings: The study establishes a strong link between these countries. A business cycle is transmitted significantly between the economies of France and UK, with a single standard deviation shock from France resulting in a long term effect of 0.4% change in gross domestic product (GDP) of UK and 1% vice versa. Additionally changes in GDP of both of the countries significantly Granger-cause change to GDP of the corresponding economy. Originality/value: This is the first empirical study investigating the business cycle transmission between France and UK and providing a quantitative assessment of their inter-dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fostering a new development dynamic is in nature about reshaping the relations between domestic and international economic cycles to achieve self-reliance and self-strengthening at higher levels. Economic cycle is the integration of various links such as production, distribution, exchange and consumption. This paper attempts to study the influence on economic cycle from income distribution based on the principles of political economy and therefore link common prosperity with the new development dynamic. It finds that labor income share is central to income distribution. On the supply side, income distribution affects choice of technology and production efficiency through changing wages; on the demand side, it influences size of demand and level of capacity utilization both directly and indirectly. Specifically, changing wages lead to changing size of reproduction and consumption by laborers in the direct way and cause changing profit margins and thus affect accumulation in the indirect way. The two channels produce effects simultaneously, yet in opposite directions, which justifies the categorization of economies into "profit-oriented" and "wage-oriented" ones according to the different influence of changing wages on the level of capacity utilization. In this theoretical logic, the paper comprehensively analyzes China's income distribution, wages, all labor productivity, organic composition of capital, profit margins, accumulation rates, level of capacity utilization and relations between domestic and international economic cycles, and finds that Chinese economy has turned from "profit-oriented" to "wage-oriented" since the turning point of 2010. It signals both necessity and feasibility of promoting common prosperity and fostering a new development dynamic. This paper also proposes some policy suggestions on promoting common prosperity from the perspectives of ownership, distribution, government-market relations and spatial structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically tests the incentive effect of fiscal policy on corporate innovation from 2007 to 2019 in China. With data from A-share-listed companies in the China Stock Market & Accounting Research (CSMAR) and Wind databases and GDP data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), the paper uses the Hodrick – Prescott (HP) filter method and a panel fixed effects model to empirically test the incentive effect of fiscal and tax policies on corporate innovation, compares the incentive differences between tax incentives and fiscal subsidies across different business cycles, and conducts heterogeneity analysis. The study finds that although fiscal subsidies and tax incentives promote enterprise innovation, the innovation incentive effect of fiscal subsidies is greater during an economic downturn than during an upturn. In contrast, tax incentives are stronger during an economic upturn than during a downturn. The results of this research may help to develop economic policies and to guide the precise implementation of tax and fee reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relative influence of the volatilities of Chinese and American trade with Africa, by exploring the volatilities, their comovements, and four potential international drivers that can increase or decrease the volatilities. The drivers considered are Euro Area's trade with Africa; U.S. recessions; economic globalization; and fluctuations in China's economy. The paper employs the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC-) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and monthly data spanning 1970M1 to 2020M07. The results show that, without controlling for drivers, the volatilities of Chinese and American trade with Africa are quite high, with similar magnitudes and significant comovements. When drivers are controlled for, Euro Area's trade does not influence the volatilities significantly. However, America's recessions make Chinese trade volatility to become higher, while economic globalization makes it to become lower, relative to America's trade volatility. These results imply that Chinese trade volatility is more influential than America's trade volatility, due to two international drivers. Furthermore, fluctuations in China's economy significantly influence the trade volatility of China itself and the trade volatility of the bigger economy, the U.S., which confirms China's significant international influence. One of the key policy implications of these findings is that globalization does not necessarily increase trade volatility in all contexts. This paper provides new evidence that in the context of a single trade market, globalization is an antidote of trade volatility because it involves the availability of diverse markets across the global economy, which consequently reduces the panic of traders within the single market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conditional projection can be adjusted for a labour market equilibrium effect - wages will respond to some extent to a change in startup activity, which will dampen the effect of a given change in startup activity on aggregate employment. Given this historical worst-case scenario, the startup calculator predicts a sizable aggregate employment loss in 2020 of about 0.9% (1.2 million jobs) and the effect is persistent - a cumulative job loss of 8.5 million by 2030 (Figure 4 in the paper, with the labour market equilibrium adjustment). The authors aim to quantify the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 recession on startup activity and thereby on aggregate employment. [Extracted from the article]

This paper investigates the employment effects of innovation over the business cycle with a large data set of manufacturing firms from 26 European countries from 1998 to 2014. The paper reveals four important findings: First, the net employment effect of product innovation is pro-cyclical and positive except in recessions. Second, product innovators are more resilient in recessions than non-product innovators because they are able to substitute demand losses in old products with new products. As a result, the net employment losses of product innovators are significantly lower in recessions than those of non-product innovators. Third, we find resilience only among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), but not among large firms. Fourth, process and organizational innovations displace labor primarily during upturn and downturn periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: The business cycle (BC) approaches have found extensive use in economic analysis and forecasting. Especially in the last 40 years, various modern BC models have been proposed and have experienced rapid development. However, there are no recent studies that provide a systematic review of the publications on this topic. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to comprehensively review publications of BC approaches based on the cause, nature and methods of measurement BC, with the goal of identifying the current research states, research gaps and future trends of BC approaches. Methods: A systematic literature review of BC approaches is conducted by qualitatively introducing the cause and the nature of BCs and quantitatively analyzing the methods of measurement BCs. We selected 206 articles related to BC approaches from the WoS Core Collection and Google Scholar database, spanning the years 1946 to 2022, for comprehensive statistical and content analysis. The statistical analysis presents the distribution of publication years, the most popular journals and the highly cited publications. The content analysis classifies the selected publications into 6 categories based on methods of measurement BCs, and the theory, technique and applications of each category are analyzed in detail. Findings & value added: The analysis results indicate that BC approaches have progressively evolved in sophistication and have found widespread application in decomposing trends within economic time series, quantifying the nature of business cycles, and elucidating the causes and transmission mechanisms underlying them. This review paper provides current states, research challenges and future directions in effectively employing BC approaches for empirical study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remittance inflows are driven by macroeconomic conditions in the home and the host economies, respectively. In this paper, we study the effect of US monetary policy on remittance flows into economies in Latin American and the Caribbean. The role of Fed policy for remittances has not yet been studied. We estimate a series of panel local projections for remittance inflows into eight countries. A surprise change in US monetary conditions has a strong and highly significant negative effect on inflows. Our finding remains robust if we change the sample period or include additional variables. Hence, our paper establishes a remittance-channel through which the Fed affects the business cycle abroad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Welfare Costs of Markups Despite the lively debate on market power containing many critics, most academics seem to agree that market power is present in the U.S. economy and has been moderately rising. Depending on the level of the aggregate markup (reminiscent of the sales-weighted average markup in the market power study), welfare losses induced by markups can be sizable. We survey the recent, active debate on market power in the U.S. economy. [Extracted from the article]

Kalecki's 'Political Aspects of Full Employment' is a classic work of political economy, showing how full employment may be obtained by fiscal policy. However, full employment challenges key institution of capitalism, in the labour market evoking resistance from business and finance and the possibility of a political business cycle. The paper compares Kalecki's vision of full employment with that of Keynes and the contribution of mass unemployment to fascism. The paper argues that Kalecki saw full employment as a transition to socialism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the dynamics of financial deepening and the volatility of business cycle in the United Arab of Emirates (UAE). We use cointegration tests of regime‐shift with one and two endogenous structural breaks, respectively, using Gregory and Hansen, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 58, 555–560 and Hatemi‐J, Empirical Economics, 2008, 35, 497–505 approaches. The asymmetry in the underlying relationship of the concerned variables are examined following NARDL model over the period 1974–2016. The findings suggest the presence of regime shifts in the cointegrating relationship and asymmetry between growth volatility and financial deepening. Furthermore, the paper provides evidence of a significant difference in the response of business cycle to negative or positive changes in the financial deepening, which are more pronounced in the short run. Therefore, the obtained asymmetry suggests that business cycle responses are quick and adverse to changes in the financial system in the UAE. The empirical findings of this paper have potential policy implications in this emerging country that is aiming to establish an international reputation in its financial market and become a regional financial hub. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes's theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different 'theories' of business fluctuations. With different theoretical frameworks in a 30-year span, the driver of fluctuations, namely cyclical changes in expectations about future returns, remained substantially the same. The banking system also played a pivotal role throughout the different versions, by financing and influencing the behaviour of return expectations. There are four major changes in the evolution of Keynes's business cycle theories: (i) the saving–investment framework to understand changes in economic fluctuations; (ii) the capabilities of the banking system to moderate the business cycle; (iii) the effectiveness of monetary policy to fine tune the business cycle through the control of the short-term interest rate or credit conditions; and (iv) the role of a comprehensive fiscal policy and investment policy to attenuate fluctuations. Finally, we draw some conclusions about the present relevance of the policy mix Keynes promoted for ensuring macroeconomic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs about risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and, therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies empirically the macroeconomic and financial effects of Climate Policy Risk (CPR) in Switzerland. To do so, I develop a new CPR index using text analysis techniques on a large dataset of Swiss media articles. The identification of CPR shocks is achieved by using narrative restrictions around events which are likely to have coincided with an increase in the probability of adopting tighter climate policies. I find that CPR shocks are associated with a significant decline in real GDP and a decline in firm-level CO2 emissions. Using firm-level equity price data and rolling linear panel regressions, I document that CPR is increasingly reflected in asset prices. I further find that CO2-intensive firms perform significantly worse than their greener counterparts following events which increased transition risk. The results are in line with recent theoretical contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Unemployment is a huge topic for policymakers, scholars, and, in general, society. Historically, there have always been a lot of discussions about this phenomenon. It is already acknowledged that unemployment is closely related to economic activity: when the economy is growing, more people are employed, and when economic activity is low, employment decreases, and unemployment rises. This relation is well-researched in the framework of Okun's law. However, it is far less known how this relationship holds if international economic relations are introduced. Thus, the motivation for the research was to examine the role of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growthunemployment nexus. Purpose of the article: To assess how trade and FDI affect growth and gender-, age-, and educational attainment level-specific unemployment relationship and on what scale this effect varies over different business cycle phases. Methods: Scientific literature review, comparative analysis, and panel regression. Findings & value added: Given the lack of research examining what effect FDI and trade have on the growth-unemployment nexus, this paper estimates modified Okun's equation on the European Union (EU) countries (EU-28, by the composition of the EU until 31/01/2020) for the period from 2000 to 2019 while incorporating international aspects that can have an impact on this nexus. Also, this study develops a specification that can be useful to monitor the potentially different effects of FDI and trade on the growth-unemployment nexus during different business cycle phases. The estimations of the panel regression for unemployment disaggregated by age, gender and education level has showed that import, export, inward FDI, and outward FDI have a negative effect on the growth-unemployment nexus. It means that with an increase in the intensity of international economic relations, the influence of gross domestic product (GDP) growth on unemployment becomes less significant. Thus, the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy to reduce unemployment becomes less effective in more open economies, which in the case of the EU are the smallest member states with relatively small domestic markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an economic life cycle assessment of hydrogen-fueled gas turbine power plant is developed, where hydrogen is produced via electrolysis with electricity generated from renewable resources (green hydrogen). By this way, the continuous green electricity without fluctuation can be generated. With a great potential in solar irradiation, Iran can be a major country for producing green hydrogen. For this purpose, first, we simulate a 100 MW solar PV plant in Fars province and calculate annual electricity generation. Considering capital cost (Capex) and operations and maintenance costs (Opex) of plants including PV, electrolyzer, hydrogen storage and distribution facilities, and gas turbine, we estimate levelized cost of electricity from green H2-fueled gas turbine power plant. Because hydrogen technology has not matured yet, the analysis for both 2021 and 2040 will be conducted. Due to lower marginal production costs, the increase in renewable energy sources decreases electricity wholesale prices. In this paper, we also estimate long-term merit order effect (MOE) of electricity generated by green hydrogen on electricity wholesale price. The results show that in renewable/hydrogen-based forecast for electricity mix of 2040, electricity wholesale price is estimated around 6.38 c$/kWh, nearly 38% less than present wholesale price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly leads to budget and schedule contingencies. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In the literature, a considerable number of papers have tried to determine construction PM challenges, mainly using statistical methods. These methods do not consider the cause-and-effect relationship among variables. To enhance the existing methods, this paper applies social network analysis (SNA) principles in order to rank a group of variables based on cause-and-effect relationships. To demonstrate the proposed idea, a data set is constructed that includes different types of challenges acquired from the literature comprehended with the forward-chaining approach. In total, 49 critical challenges were identified and subsequently categorized into 12 groups. Two questionnaires were designed to assist in ranking the challenges. 108 construction experts and 20 panelists participated in this study, and the acquired data were used to evaluate the proposed SNA-based method. By applying the proposed method to the obtained data, a complex weighted and directed network is constructed and examined by three metrics: weighted in-degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality. The results revealed that poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, and poor decision making are the main challenges that occur in the construction environment. Moreover, it was figured out that considering the cause-and-effect relationship among variables resulted in a highly different ranking of challenges, much closer to the real situation. This model could be used in quantitative-analytical research conducted in the construction project knowledge area in order to obtain more interpretable answers. Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly lead to time and cost overruns. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In this research, comprehensive scientific efforts were made in order to rank the main PMs' challenges in the construction sector, especially in developing countries. For this purpose, cause-and-effect relationships among variables were considered. By using different questionnaires as well as forming different focus groups and interviewing different experts, we found that the main top 10 challenges in the construction sector are: poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, poor decision making, time pressure, rework, stressful atmosphere, design alteration (even after execution), workforce turnover, fluctuation rate and economic instability, and inappropriate and unrealistic scheduling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the bibliometrics of a Keynesian and neoclassical discussion about the multiplier–accelerator effect. Having its oldest roots in the 1930s, there was a special emphasis in the 1960s and 1970s on discussions regarding the dependence of current investment on economic growth (the accelerator effect). Through a bibliometric analysis, we also consider the Hicks–Samuelson contribution, also known as the multiplier–accelerator model. We identified, among other things, the most relevant authors on the topics, the economic areas that have been contributed to the most through keyword analysis, and the most notable contributions through citation analysis. We concluded that several areas in economics have taken advantage of the discussion around the multiplier–accelerator effect, especially the discussion on the business cycle, structural dynamics, and public finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates how exchange governance and the local market system influence a firm's adaptability to an economic crisis. This paper unveils a nuanced performance disparity by leveraging a rich dataset of manufacturing firms in Spain. While vertically integrated firms exhibit superior performance during periods of stability, they confront more significant setbacks in the aftermath of economic crises. This study demonstrates that the extent of this performance divergence is contingent upon the thickness of the local market system, supporting the hypothesis that vertically integrated firms derive reduced adaptive benefits from agglomeration economies. These findings shed light on the dynamic interrelationship between a firm's vertical scope and geographical context. They underscore the significance of a holistic assessment when determining the optimal approach to exchange governance. This assessment must evaluate the advantages and drawbacks of autonomous versus coordinated adaptation across economic cycles and geographies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]