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Abstract This work analyzes the impacts of climate change in the revenues of hydropower plants. One important input for designing and evaluating investment opportunities in hydropower is the water inflows historical data. Unfortunately, the use of such information alone may not project well the future power generation due to the influence of climate change in the water inflow patterns. This paper introduces spatio-temporal information of the future climate into the operational planning of the Brazilian hydropower system. Global climate models from IPCC are considered along with downscaled regional climate models. Our results at the individual hydro plant level show the importance of taking into account climate change information when performing hydro generation planning studies. Highlights • We present a new framework to evaluate climate change impacts in hydropower plants. • An interaction among regional climate, water inflows modeling, and optimization dispatch models is showed. • Relevant results for distinct configurations of the Brazilian system are presented. • This paper can help to support decision-making regarding investments in new hydro plants. • This multidisciplinary research provides guidance for future planning of the generation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 5210 forestry Brazilian theses and 2228 forestry articles were evaluated. • Climate change on forest environments are understudied given its relevance. • Three key opportunities to improve science about climate change are presented. This article explores the extent to which research in forestry is directly related to the issue of climate change. The study conducted two surveys, one analyzing 5,210 theses from Brazilian forestry-related postgraduate programs between 2013 and 2022, and another examining 2228 articles published in ten forestry journals in 2022. We classified the extent of a focus on climate change in four classes: strong focus, relevant focus, using it as a context and not considered. Given the pervasive impacts of changing climates, we found a small representation of the topic within the theses with only 2% with a strong focus, 2% of relevant focus and 5% mentioned climate change as a contextual factor but provided no clear connections or inferences about climate change and forests. The focus on climate change was developed better in the forest journals. Almost one-third at least justified their projects based on connections to climate change, and 14% directly studied climate change and its impacts. Six percent of the papers with a direct focus on climate change also incorporated climate change effects into their experimental designs. We propose three key opportunities for improve the science about climate change related directly with forestry. Firstly, an opportunity is related with the writing of papers by itself, where articles might have substantive connections and insights connected with the core theme of the research. Secondly, taking Brazil as an example, there should have an increment in the number of graduate students working directly with the theme of climate change given its relevance. Lastly, we identified an opportunity for a more balanced science in the distinct types of forests. Tropical forest represents 45% of the forests worldwide but comprises only 14% of studies in our sample. By addressing these opportunities, we will not only benefit the forests but also contribute to a more sustainable and climate-resilient future for both forests and communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the effects of public policies on the occurrence of natural disasters related to extreme rainfall. By using a unique and geolocated database on natural disasters in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I test whether variables related to public policies - e.g. forest cover and urban infrastructure - affect the occurrence of natural disasters, conditional on the existence of extreme rainfall. Results point to a significant role for public policies in order to mitigate effects of extreme weather events. More specifically, results point to an important role for urban infrastructure, as proper sewage and waste collection, and forest cover in reducing the impacts of extreme rainfall. Moreover, I discuss how these heterogeneous effects have distributional consequences and can be linked to the Environmental Justice literature. Finally, this paper reinforces the idea that adaptation policies to disasters are essential in reducing local vulnerabilities and can yield distributional and fiscal benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of public policies have emerged worldwide as a response from governments facing climate change effects, drawing the attention of the scientific community to the outcomes and actual effects/benefits these policies have brought so far. One of the challenging aspects related to this context is the integration of the objectives set by climate change policies within the sectoral and regional planning. In this respect, the literature recognizes the relevance of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as an instrument to deal with climate change issues in the planning process and to support the development of alternatives to respond to climate change policies. The influence of climate change policies on the plans and programs supported by SEA in emerging economies is yet to be verified. The paper relies on the case of Brazil, recognized by its relevance in terms of biodiversity, water resources and climate regulation. In 2009, Brazil introduced the National Policy of Climate Change (NPCC), which established guidelines to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2020. The present paper is based on the analysis of the current SEA practice and the corresponding level of integration of climate change issues, considering the objectives of the NPCC. A set of 29 statements, delivered by the literature, was applied, combined to the content analysis techniques to review the quality of 35 SEA reports produced in Brazil between 1997 and 2014 (out of 40-odd cases). The outcomes indicate the performance is similar to what was found in other contexts, i.e., SEA areas barely address climate change issues. This thus reveals an important gap between the objectives of NPCC and sectoral/regional planning. SEA can contribute to reducing this gap, but it needs more strength to influence the development of sectoral and regional policies and plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Out-of-sample prediction of extreme precipitation using nonstationary models. • Significant trends in data of extreme precipitation are insufficient to warrant the selection of a nonstationary model. • Large prediction uncertainty reduces the support for nonstationary models of extreme precipitation. • (Non)stationary model selection should explicitly account for model complexity. Knowledge of the recurrence intervals of precipitation extremes is vital for infrastructure design, risk assessment, and insurance planning. However, trends and shifts in rainfall patterns globally pose challenges to the application of extreme value analysis (EVA) which relies critically on the assumption of stationarity. In this paper, we explore: (1) the suitability of nonstationary (NS) models in the presence of statistically significant trends, and (2) their potential in modeling out-of-sample data to improve frequency analysis of extreme precipitation. We analyze the benefits of using a nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model for annual extreme precipitation records from Southern Brazil. The location of the GEV distribution is allowed to change with time. The unknown GEV model parameters are estimated using Bayesian techniques coupled with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Next, we use GAME sampling to compute the evidence (and their ratios, the so-called Bayes factors) for stationary and nonstationary models of annual maximum precipitation. Our results show that the presence of a statistically significant trend in annual maximum precipitation alone does not justify the use of a NS model. The location parameter of the GEV distribution must also be well defined, otherwise, stationary models of annual maximum precipitation receive more support by the data. These findings reiterate the importance of accounting for GEV model parameters and predictive uncertainty in frequency analysis and hypothesis testing of annual maximum precipitation data records. Furthermore, a meaningful EVA demands detailed knowledge about the origin and persistence of observed changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has an energy system with a hydrothermal characteristic that interconnects consumers and generators covering 98% of the demand for energy supplies. Most of the plants are concentrated in the southeast region, where the largest consumers and the largest population concentration are located. The expansion of this system, considering the hydroelectric contributions, will occur exploring the potentials located in the Amazon region. This analysis paper shows that the variations imposed by climate changes on some climatological variables create significant uncertainties about the power generation forecasts of the hydroelectric power plants to be installed in the Amazon, thus compromising the financial economic feasibility of these enterprises and also possibly compromising the expansion plans of the Brazilian energy system. The methodological approach uses information from various climate change scenarios and compares those with historical hydrological patterns and generation information. By exploring the characteristics of a large-scale hydrothermal system with high dependence on water resources, this paper provides valuable insights on how energy policy would address hydroelectric vulnerabilities and climate change. This analysis is focused on the Brazilian case but reveals important issues related to systems with hydro thermal characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Bibliographic mapping was used to identify major research groups and trends for heat tolerance in farm animals. • Major research countries are the USA, China, Brazil, India, Australia and UK with 54% of all publications. • There was a gradual drift in heat stress studies from animal physiology towards genomics and cellular biology. • This area of research is growing 3x faster than publication rates in general. • Most papers are on cattle, indicating the need for studies with other species. This study looks at the bibliographic mapping of citation, co-occurrence of keywords, co-citation and bibliographic coupling for heat tolerance in farm animals. Data was obtained from Scopus (Elsevier) and analysed in Vosviewer. Several salient points emerge from our analysis. We found a total of 1728 documents from 102 countries, of which 54% are from six countries (USA, China, Brazil, India, Australia and UK). While heat tolerance is important, Global South countries have recently become more important in this topic. Nevertheless, researchers from this region appear relatively isolated using the metrics of this study. One potential factor contributing to isolation could be lack of funding. This is discussed in the light of current Article Processing Charges. We also note a gradual drift in heat stress studies from animal physiology towards genomics and cellular biology. The paper can help understanding tendencies in this field of research and may point to future actions within the research community. This paper also shows the need to strengthen studies in less favoured areas and with species such as small ruminants, whereby small holders may be harder hit by climate change. Biases in the analysis could arise due to low citations from recent papers or those not indexed in Scopus. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few years, there has been a growing global consensus related to the importance of renewable energy to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. The solution is an increase in the number of renewable power plants but unfortunately, this leads to a high dependence on climate variables which are already affected by climate change. Brazil is one of the largest producers of electricity by renewables through its hydro-dominant power generation system. However, hydro-generation depends on water inflows that are directly affected by climate change that consequently affect the electricity production. Therefore, these changes need to be considered in the operation and planning of a hydro-dominant power system. In this paper, we present the effects of different climate scenarios in the water inflows produced by the regional Eta climate model. Normally, studies use an optimization model to make decisions in case of a hydro-thermal scheduling problem and use the assured energy to evaluate the hydro-production. In this analysis, water inflows used in the optimization process consider different trends according to its associated climate scenario. Our paper shows that climate change may drastically impact the system assured energy and consequently, the system's capability to supply load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of psychological barriers and the attribution of social meaning is a complex and subjective process, but essential for the development of strategies to adapt to climate change and land-use management. The objective of this paper is to point out and discuss aspects that comprise climate vulnerability, especially regarding the climate perceptions understood as an element for the development of community adaptation strategies. The first part presents two study cases and the second part presents propositions for developing climate adaptation strategies based on the results of these cases. The paper focuses on two aspects: the perception of climate dynamics and the relationship between vulnerability and local climate dynamics. In order to establish the relationship between climate dynamics and the level of vulnerability perceived, a qualitative approach was adopted. Field data collection consisted of observing local civil association meetings and conducting semi-structured interviews with local actors. Although both communities studied are strongly affected by climate events, their perception of climate influences is essentially different. The difference in perception arises mainly from the different context in which climate events acquire meaning, rather than any ability of assigning meaning to possible climate change. To understand the dynamics of establishing an adaptation strategy, the motivational problems would be a stimulus, a causative agent of reflections on the conditions of vulnerability to climate change and reflection about their limit-situations . The final propositions present “Adaptation learning process pre-steps framework” that emerges from the description of contrasts in perceptions/cognitions observed between the two study cases. It is a model for the visualization of different and better living conditions, the unknown-viable , which enable social actors to become aware of capacity of acting and governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastureland maintenance is seen as a land-based measure to reduce dependency on feed concentrates and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production in the EU, while providing other ecosystems services. This paper assesses potential market-mediated impacts, including global Land Use Change (LUC) and GHG emissions, from increased subsidies to pasture-based livestock production in the EU. A tax recycling strategy (TRS) is simulated against a baseline up to 2030 under the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). This implies a budget-neutral increase in the level of pasture subsidies in individual Member States, as land subsidies for other cropping activities decrease. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP in its recursive-dynamic version, GTAP-RDEM, extended with the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database FABIO to disaggregate agri-food sectors from 21 to 31. This approach allows considering price- and income-dependent feedbacks when assessing long-run changes in the global economy, improving the sectoral resolution relative to GTAP v10. The policy increases pastureland areas and cattle production in almost all EU Member States, whereas cropland and crop production decrease, causing significant changes across EU agri-food markets. Crop prices increase, leading to the reduced output of intensive animal production sectors, mainly pig and poultry. Cropland areas decrease and most EU countries increase imports of grain, oilseeds, and cakes, essentially soybean cake from Brazil and North America. While GHG emissions decrease in those EU countries where pasturelands expand mainly at the cost of croplands, GHG emissions increase in those countries where pastureland expansion comes with forest loss. As a result, net GHG emissions increase in the EU-27 in 2030 (+2.49 Mt CO 2 -eq). Emissions from LUC in major non-EU grain- and oilseed-exporting countries increase, e.g., by 102.52 Mt CO 2 -eq in Brazil and by 129.17 Mt CO 2 -eq in North America. The simulated policy shows that promoting extensive livestock per se does not meet the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal. The TRS should be complemented with policies to foster crop diversification and promote the use of domestic feed sources (e.g., legumes) to effectively ensure feed self-sufficiency and that extensive cattle production in the EU does not lead to deforestation in carbon-rich countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of wind power has gained prominence on the world stage, especially in Brazil. In addition to generating energy free of emissions, wind technology is the second cheapest generation option in Brazil. At the same time, it has contributed to reducing hydrological vulnerability caused by climate variation. Although wind power has experienced a steady expansion in the last decade, recent poor outcomes of wind auctions produced uncertainty about the future of this technology in the country. This paper analyses the influence of contract mechanisms used in Brazilian energy auctions for the growth of wind generation. To do this, a scenario analysis based on a hybrid simulation model is used, combining agent-based modelling (ABM) and system dynamics (SD). From the hybrid simulation, the effect of the wind project cancellation policy is analysed, on the one hand, and different ceiling prices for competing sources in the auctions are assessed, on the other. Moreover, the simulation model shows how hydro conditions affect reserve energy auctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Tap water use in urban agriculture albeit climate change/urban water risk scenarios. • No studies addressed impacts of urban agriculture on public water supply systems. • Research need on urban agriculture policies and practices towards water security. • Fruit trees and wild edible plants are water-saving options. Urban agriculture (UA) initiatives have been increasing in recent years as a nature-based solution for achieving many of the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, climate change is expected to have effects on rainfall patterns, which are likely to impact urban food production. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate how issues related to water sources for UA have been addressed in the scientific literature from two different socioeconomic and environmental realities, Brazil and Italy. The method involved a systematic literature review, considering the PRISMA guidelines. The Web of Science database and papers' reference lists were used for retrieving original articles, published in 2000–2020 interval, indexed on scientific databases, and containing data on the typology and quality of water sources used in UA studies. After applying the eligibility criteria, 191 papers were selected – Brazil (108) and Italy (83). The last five years have seen an intensification of studies into issues involving water. Tap water has been identified as an important source of irrigation water for UA, if not the main one. No studies were found that addressed the impact of UA on public water supply systems. The findings point towards more sustainable practices involving the reuse of water and adaptive practices towards water security. We identified that innovative production systems like container farming, aquaponics and indoor agriculture, as well as cultivation of fruit trees, wild edible plants and varieties with low water requirements can represent water-saving options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• There is a distinction between usable and useful knowledge for climate change adaptation. • There are challenges to ensure boundary organisations have long-lasting impacts. • Two systemic changes are proposed to advance knowledge usefulness. Increased social and environmental vulnerability to extreme climatic events and inherent aggravation of environmental and social problems has placed climate change adaptation as an urgent challenge for decision-makers. Understanding and using climate change information to advance the implementation of climate-friendly policies further compounds this challenge. A rich scholarly literature focusing on climate change adaptation endorses that investing in mechanisms that narrow the gap between climate change information production and its use is crucial to increase adaptive capacity. Based on this assumption, this paper investigates the extent to which two collaborative projects that functioned as boundary organisations in Brazil (CiAdapta project) and Australia (Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management in East Coast Australia) increased access to information, and enabled the continual and continuous usefulness of produced knowledge for climate change adaptation. Considering the distinction between usable and useful information, we applied six criteria to guide the data analysis and extract key lessons from each project. Our findings confirm that face-to-face interactions are more likely to result in research having the societal impact that is being increasingly required by research and funding bodies. Our findings also indicate that two key systemic changes are critical for the long-term influence of boundary organisations for advancing climate change adaptation. These include changes to the science, knowledge production process; and shift in the political culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts in one country can lead to impacts in distant locations, for example, via internationally traded crops. Previous work has highlighted a need to include cross-border climate change impacts in climate risk assessments, to describe the exposure and transmission of cross-border climate risk across actors, and understand options for managing this risk. In a case study of the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain, this paper aims to explore how stakeholders perceive past and future shocks, how climate change impacts affect stakeholders differently, and how they might respond. Soy is a key internationally traded commodity and Europe relies on imports for the majority of its soy consumption, used widely in livestock feed. Via 96 semi-structured expert interviews, we found different stakeholder groups are vulnerable to different types of weather shocks, experience different price and supply consequences, and have different capacities to respond. While some responses can reduce risk of impacts across the supply chain (e.g. new soy cultivars, improving transport infrastructure), we also identified examples where responses exacerbate risk for other stakeholders (e.g. export bans, changing demand). A holistic cross-border approach to analysing risk in the soy supply chain can help avoid maladaptation and offer opportunities for more collaborative adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest restoration has gained traction as a solution to mitigate climate change, contribute to biodiversity conservation, and support forest livelihoods. Yet there is limited evidence on the spatial locations where restoration is most likely to occur. In landscapes that primarily contain private properties, assessing the likelihood of restoration can be informed by understanding the enabling and limiting factors that have influenced property-level restoration in the past. In this paper, we tested the relationships between restoration, property size, and forest cover, for 8451 properties between 1985 and 2019 in Southern Bahia, Atlantic Forest, Brazil. We found that spatial property-level variables were strongly associated with restoration. First, we found that property size was positively correlated with the amount of restoration per property. Medium-sized properties (between 40 and 127 ha) accounted for the most restoration in aggregate. Second, we found that properties with less forest cover were associated with higher amounts of restoration. In addition, for properties larger than 20 ha, those with intermediate amounts of forest cover had high amounts of restoration. Third, we found that restoration was a spatial process that occurred in hotspots rather than randomly across the study landscape, indicating that restoration often occurred near to other restored properties. Understanding these relationships may assist restoration planners in making more informed estimates of the conditions that might enable future restoration. Given that restoration is a complex process that may require different approaches in different socio-environmental contexts, decision-makers may consider identifying and prioritizing properties of different sizes and with different amounts of forest cover depending on their specific priorities, landscape-level conditions, and restoration context. Our spatial analysis techniques assist in improving broader understanding of possible ways in which land use policy could prioritize for restoration at the property level and could later be applied to other socio-environmental tropical forest systems. • It is novel to evaluate property-level characteristics of forest restoration. • Larger properties were associated with higher amounts of restoration. • Properties with less forest cover were associated with higher amounts of restoration. • Restoration was a spatial process that occurred in hotspots. • Spatial prioritization may be useful for restoration decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adoption of sustainable agriculture practices (SAP) has the potential to mitigate climate change's effects, while at the same time minimize degradation of natural resources and increase food production. However, recent policies based on economic incentives alone have largely failed to increase SAP adoption rate at farm level. Understanding farmers' perceptions towards environmental issues and climate change is essential to change this situation. This study aims to categorize farmers in different types, according to their perceptions on environmental issues and on climate change in a sample of Brazilian farmers (n = 172). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis were used. Results showed four clusters of farmers: "Worried", "Apathetic", "Anthropocentric" and "Ecocentric". Contrasting to "Worried" and "Apathetic", farmers in "Anthropocentric" and "Ecocentric" clusters presented pro-environmental behavior, which suggests a high likelihood to adopt SAP. While farmers with an anthropocentric view are oriented to increase their economic gains, ecocentric farmers are motivated by environmental concerns i.e. non-economic factors. Insights of this paper can be used to facilitate effective policy development and strategies to increase the adoption rate of SAP. Image 10125 • The study examines the classified environmental behavior of farmers in Brazil. • Statistical analysis was used for the study. • Farmers who are ecocentric and anthropocentric exhibited pro-environmental behavior. • Pro-environmental behavior is not motivated exclusively by financial incentives. • Results will help to increase the adoption rate of sustainable agricultural practices in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vulnerability of electric potential generation from water resources has been evidenced due to uncertainties of climatic origin and energy planning. Changes in rainfall regimes are multifactorial phenomena difficult to model. Rainfall is the main natural way of restoring the reservoir levels of hydroelectric power plants. The reduction in rainfall levels may increase in the coming years, resulting in a probable change of the energy matrix configuration of the state of Minas Gerais (MG). This could reduce the share of renewable sources increasing dependence on the importance of energy from fossil fuels, which are the immediate primary sources of energy available. Prior examinations have portrayed the depletion of hydroelectricity in Brazil, or its macro-regions, however this work tries to supply a more focused look at the effects on the electricity and social sectors of the state of Minas Gerais. The study developed in this paper aims to investigate the hydrological potential alteration impacts and consequences on the energy matrix of the state, the greenhouse gas emissions and the social reflexes of these changes due to scenarios motivated by climate change. The investigation intends to show the importance of the water-energy-emissions nexus for energy planning and decision-making, in order to evaluate the best options for dealing with adverse and potentially destabilizing conditions. The results of the analyses show that while hydropower demand was 5.24 Mtoe in 2015, in 2030 the supply of hydropower will be 5.81 Mtoe and 4.72 Mtoe, for the conservative and severe scenarios, respectively. In addition, the effect of climate change may require an increase in the share of non-renewable sources in the energy matrix, which could increase CO 2 e emissions from 4.2% to 7.4% by 2030, compared to the levels in 2016. • Reduction in rainfall levels will change the energy matrix configuration of MG state. • Population growth will boost demand for energy. • It is shown the importance of the water-energy-emissions nexus for energy planning and decision-making. • The energy matrix may considerably increase the CO 2 e emissions by 2030, compared with 2016 levels in the MG state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A user-friendly system designed to understand local littoral processes and design/evaluate coastal interventions, named the Coastal Modeling System (SMC ε) is presented. The system, which comprises a set of numerical models, state-of-the-art methodologies and numerical databases, is prepared to provide a method for coastal practitioners, researchers and decision-makers to address coastal issues, such as erosion and flooding or to evaluate coastal defense structures. The system incorporates a method to transfer numerically generated, calibrated and validated wave series to the surf zone; to estimate the sediment littoral drift by means of up-to-date formulations; and to estimate the flooding level and impacts such as those produced by climate change. In this paper, these skills are detailed. The system, which is adaptable to any coastal region, was implemented for the Brazilian coast (SMC-Brasil). The implementation includes databases and methodological adaptations to local characteristics, a dissemination plan and the development of several study cases. Highlights • SMCε is modeling software to deal with all stages of Coastal Engineering Projects. • Database includes 60-year time series of waves, storm surge and astronomical tide. • Methodology/models to study dynamics/impacts at all scales including climate change. • Erosion/flooding assessment due to interventions/natural causes even climate change. • SMCε is free and adaptable to any country. Adaption to Brazilian coast is described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Energy-Water-Food Nexus is one of the most complex sustainability challenges faced by the world. This is particularly true in Brazil, where insufficiently understood interactions within the Nexus are contributing to large-scale deforestation and land-use change, water and energy scarcity, and increased vulnerability to climate change. The reason is a combination of global environmental change and global economic change, putting unprecedented pressures on the Brazilian environment and ecosystems. In this paper, we identify and discuss the main Nexus challenges faced by Brazil across sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, water) and scales (e.g. federal, state, municipal). We use four case studies to explore all nodes of the Nexus. For each, we analyse data from economic and biophysical modelling sources in combination with an overview of the legislative and policy landscape, in order to identify governance shortcomings in the context of growing challenges. We analyse the complex interdependence of developments at the global and local (Brazilian) levels, highlighting the impact of global environmental and economic change on Brazil and, conversely, that of developments in Brazil for other countries and the world. We conclude that there is a need to adjust the scientific approach to these challenges as an enabling condition for stronger science-policy bridges for sustainability policy-making. Highlights • Overview of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus in Brazil for science, law and policy. • Review of the complex linkages in the Nexus for water, energy and food security. • Review of the law addressing the Nexus and its coordination deficiencies. • Recommendations for strengthening the Nexus science-policy bridge in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper aims to discuss the adaptation of a brazilian social housing project to the Passive House standard, by defining the thermal envelope construction fabric for different climates of southern Brazil, from a base line according to the Brazilian performance standard. The study was developed in 4 steps, where a numerical model was set up and runned in a transient regime, using EnergyPlus® software. In the first step, the thermal and energy performance of the reference base model was assessed. In the second step, a sensitivity analysis was performed, varying the thermal envelope parameters of the building case study, in order to satisfy the minimum performance of the classification level A, according to the Brazilian Energy Efficiency Regulation (RTQ-R). In a third step, the external envelope of the building was optimised, through a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. In a last step, the numerical model defined according to the Passive House standard was optimised, in order to obtain optimal solutions. Thermal and energy performance and economic viability of the solutions were analysed. Solutions attending to RTQ-R presented additional investment between 26% and 27% and solutions attending to Passive House standard presented additional costs of 39% and 42% for the three bioclimatic zones. Highlights • An optimisation methodology for Passive House design is presented. • An evolutionary multi-objective algorithm is used for thermal building simulation. • Different bioclimatic zones in Brazil are investigated. • Energy performance and thermal comfort of the buildings are significantly improved. • The Passive social interest housing is economically viable for bioclimatic zone 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Specialisation at national level hampers mitigation-adaptation integration. • Local actors prioritize climate adaptation but lack of influence hinders action. • Decentralisation affects cross-level power differentials in land and climate domains. • Dominant national level communities exclude localities from policy decisions. Abstract This article proposes an innovative theoretical framework that combines institutional and policy network approaches to study multi-level governance. The framework is used to derive a number of propositions on how cross-level power imbalances shape communication and collaboration across multiple levels of governance. The framework is then applied to examine the nature of cross-level interactions in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy processes in the land use sectors of Brazil and Indonesia. The paper identifies major barriers to cross-level communication and collaboration between national and sub-national levels. These are due to power imbalances across governance levels that reflect broader institutional differences between federal and decentralized systems of government. In addition, powerful communities operating predominantly at the national level hamper cross-level interactions. The analysis also reveals that engagement of national level actors is more extensive in the mitigation and that of local actors in the adaptation policy domain, and specialisation in one of the climate change responses at the national level hampers effective climate policy integration in the land use sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The São Francisco delta in eastern Brazil is considered a classical example of a wave-dominated delta constructed in a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) far-field region. Although this delta is widely mentioned in the international literature, few details about its sedimentary architecture have been published. In this paper, we use a new dataset consisting of 15 boreholes and 26 radiocarbon datings to discuss the 3D architecture of the delta and the role played by GIA far-field effects in delta construction. The delta plain consists of a 10–12 m thick littoral sand sheet that progrades over a muddy subaqueous clinoform, forming a compound clinoform. Delta construction began between 8.4 and 7.2 ka BP and included a stage of normal regression that lasted until 5.7 ka BP, followed by a stage of forced regression. The transition between these two stages is marked by the highest position of the sand–mud transition in the boreholes. This forced regression is due to a 3–4-m drop in relative sea level since the mid-Holocene, which is characteristic of GIA far-field regions. Additionally, as a consequence of this drop in relative sea level, there is a progressive increase in the altitude of the beach-ridge deposits continentward, which combined with the development of extensive dune fields in the later stages of delta construction, contributes to the increased resilience of the delta to ongoing sea-level rise. The 3D architecture of the delta was strongly influenced by antecedent topography. The delta was built on a bathymetric depression on the shelf that almost entirely traps the sediment load of the São Francisco River. The uneven relief inside this bathymetric depression ultimately controlled lateral variations in the total thickness of the delta edifice. • Two-stage delta construction in GIA far-field regions: normal and forced regression. • Drop in sea level since mid-Holocene in GIA far-field regions increases delta resilience to ongoing sea-level rise. • Antecedent topography strongly controlled the delta 3D architecture. • 3D architecture of the São Francisco wave-dominated delta is presented for the first time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural trade and climate change have altered land cover and land use worldwide. For example, the recent growth of international soybean demand has been associated with 1.3 Mha primary Amazon forest loss and up to 13-fold increase in double-cropping areas in Brazil. Many studies have tried to understand which and how global and local drivers affect deforestation and agricultural intensification processes at the landscape level, yet few have incorporated the direct perspectives of actual land users. Under the influence of a variety of social, economic, and cultural factors, producers are the ones who make decisions that will cause a significant impact on the environment. In this paper, we adopted Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative modeling approach to represent complex decision-making systems, and we modeled land use and agricultural management perceptions of 27 crop producers from the three states - Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Tocantins - important soybean production and export areas in Brazil. We analyzed individual models and integrated them into aggregated regional models to compare individual and regional differences among the producers. In addition, we simulated how producers from the three states will make land-use decisions under more trade and extreme climatic events scenarios using the FCMs. Our results indicate that extreme climatic events are among the most important factors producers consider when it comes to the sustainability of their operations. Climate change scenarios have a stronger overall impact than trade scenarios on local land-use changes, causing a 12% reduction in total agricultural production. The improvement of technology packages can effectively mitigate climate change risks and has an overall positive impact on land-use intensification than expansion. On the other hand, sharing accurate climate information and socio-economic improvements such as credits have larger impacts on agricultural expansion than productivity itself. Moreover, the model complexity shows differences among the three states. Soybean trade has more weight in the perception of producers in Goiás and Tocantins than Mato Grosso. Based on the results, we discuss the importance of co-designing place-based, alternative policies and mitigation options for both agricultural intensification and environmental conservation, taken into consideration through the intertwined global and local forces. • Mapping perceptions of soybean producers across Brazil reveals heterogeneous characters, concepts, and relationships. • Climate change has vast and more severe impacts to land-use change decisions than trade. • Producers acknowledge the contribution of international trade to local production, social, and infrastructure development. • Land actors' varied perceptions demand place-based policies, balancing environmental and agricultural sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The questionnaire assessed environmental awareness and knowledge about CCS technology. • The interviews were conducted using a face-to-face approach. • A structured research was employed using an ordinal qualitative scale. • Respondents were aware of the climate change. • Climate change mitigation actions are not a priority for respondents. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is considered an important option to mitigate climate change. However, the success of the new technology does not only depend on engineering practices and techniques but also involves social, political, and economic factors, as well as public acceptance. The discussion about CCS in Brazil is recent and few papers addressing Brazilian public perception and engagement with CCS were found. In this sense, this paper aims to analyze the environmental awareness about climate change and the citizens' perception of CCS technology. A public perception survey was conducted with 800 people in two Brazilian cities. Descriptive statistical techniques combined with hypothesis tests were performed to depict the results and to verify associations between different demographic groups to climate change issues and support for the development of CCS technology in Brazil. The results show that the public is aware of climate change and its consequences. However, despite public support for governmental development and investments in CCS technology, investments to mitigate climate change are not a priority for the population. Only 2% and 5% of interviewed citizens in the cities of São Mateus and Vitória, respectively, considered investments in climate change mitigation as a priority. More than 70% of respondents considered that other social elements, as health, public safety, and job creation, should be prioritized by the Brazilian government. The results suggest that the population needs more information about CCS technology and its impacts. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct an 11,000-year history of depositional environmental change in southeastern Brazil, based upon the integration of particulate organic matter and stable isotope (C and N) data from a 136-cm sediment core from Lake Canto Grande. These proxies are used to explore the evolution of terrestrial and marine influence on the lake. Isotopic (δ 13 C: −27.87‰ to −31.9‰; δ 15 N: −0.07‰–4.9‰) and elemental (total organic carbon - TOC: 0.58%–37.19%; total nitrogen - TN: 0.08%–1.73%; C/N: 0.3 to 54.7) values recorded in Lake Canto Grande suggest that the sedimentary organic matter was derived from mostly C 3 land plants and freshwater phytoplankton. Particulate organic matter and cluster analyses distinguished four associations characterized by the predominance of amorphous organic matter, followed by phytoclasts and palynomorphs. These results indicate two different phases of lake evolution. The first phase (136 - 65 cm; ∼10,943 cal yr. B.P. to ∼8529 cal yr. B.P.) is recorded by sand layers interbedded with mud, which contain amorphous organic matter (AOM, 45–59%) and phytoclasts (opaques - OP: 6–18%; non-opaques – NOP: 17–23%) which indicate a floodplain area. The second phase (65–0 cm; ∼8529 cal yr. B.P. to ∼662 cal yr. B.P.) comprises mud, AOM (68–86%) and palynomorphs (PAL, 8–16%) related to lake establishment comparable to modern conditions. Thus, characterizing particulate organic matter, in combination with stable isotopes, proved to be invaluable proxies for lacustrine paleoenvironmental change through the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

City governments worldwide are increasingly introducing adaptation actions and climate responses in their policies and agendas, but the speed and success of these initiatives vary widely. Understanding these interventions, barriers and opportunities for urban adaptation remains a challenge for scholars and policy-makers. In this paper, we assess climate adaptation policy in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil, paying special attention to missed opportunities and potential synergies. We focus on climate policies and urban interventions in São Paulo, specifically on the analysis of documents related to the Municipal Climate Change Policy (launched in 2009) and New Master Plan (concluded in 2014). We describe local responses to climate change already implemented in the city and explore some of the factors that affect its adaptation. We argue that although the megacity has recently implemented innovative urban policies and a set of municipal actions that aim to overcome many of the city's challenges, São Paulo is missing an opportunity to mainstream climate change to improve its adaptive capacity. In exploring some of the local initiatives implemented in recent years, we seek to understand responses to climate change that emerge in Brazilian cities, particularly considering that cities learn from each other to adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social housing sector is very important in Brazil, due to the necessity of expansion and investments being placed through a substantial government program. Residential buildings are expected to last at least 50 years according to Brazilian standards. Many residential projects in the sector already perform medium or poorly in terms of energy efficiency and thermal comfort today, and their designs are not analysed considering climate change. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the result of analysing the thermal and energy performance of social housing projects considering climate change, and to assess the impact on the operational phase of introducing energy efficiency measures in the sector, and exploring methods of adaptation to climate change. A representative project of the lower income sector housing was used as case study with the evaluation of measures through thermal and energy simulation with current and future weather files for the cities of São Paulo and Salvador. Results were compared using predicted energy consumption and cooling and heating degree-hours as indicators. The results highlighted some differences related to the climate scenarios and indicator analysed, and showed that the incorporation of energy efficiency measures in current social housing projects is of fundamental importance to minimize the effects of climate change in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We combined occupational accidents data and climatic variables into a new database. • We verified a positive association between heat stress and occupational accidents. • There is an association between high levels heat stress and death of the worker. • Workers of color are associated to higher levels of heat stress. • Unprecedented results and database on Brazilian research. Work accidents result in consequences to the employment of the population and increasing public spendings. Caused by workplace and work activity characteristics, occupational accidents may also derive from ergonomics and comfort issues. Heat stress is a discomfort factor that affects workers when exposed to temperatures above the body limits, resulting in exhaustion, dizziness, reduced cognitive performance and, eventually, injuries and accidents. Under the current climate change scenario characterized by increase of temperature projections all around the world, the heat stress issue becomes even more significant. However, in Brazil, this topic is yet little explored, especially regarding the investigation of historical data on occupational accidents considering the climatic variables. This paper aims at filling a part of this gap by presenting a new database that unifies a work accident database - recording from 2006 to 2019 - with meteorological data of the place and time of the accident. We investigate the relationship between these two datasets through the application of Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) in the R Software. Our results show some association between accident variables and heat stress variables. We identify some of the more critical workers' characteristics in this context and the most exposed regions of Brazil. Our database allows the continuity and expansion of this type of research in Brazil, and the MCA results point to a positive association between the occurrence of accidents with climatic variables. It may pave a new path for research that can detail and deepen the discussion on the behavior of these variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• BECCS assessment of a power system based on biomass gasification (BIG-CC), integrated into a sugarcane plant. • CO 2 capture by the pre-combustion route has less impact on the sale of surplus electricity. • The CO 2 mitigation cost was estimated at 60 €/tCO 2 for pre-combustion and 52 €/tCO 2 for post-combustion. • The feasibility of CO 2 capture is impacted by the scale and cost of electricity generation. • Conventional cogeneration systems (CEST) are suggested for the first BECCS units. In order to make feasible the efforts that would limit the rise of Earth's temperature to no more than 2 °C, profound changes are required in the energy systems. In this sense, BECCS are considered instrumental to attain possible negative emissions. This draws attention to the sugarcane industry in Brazil, where it is possible to produce fuel ethanol at a relative low cost and a large amount of relatively cheap biomass is available. This paper is part of a research that aims to study the combined production of liquid fuels and electricity, using sustainable sources of biomass and maximizing carbon capture. Two cases related to an innovative technology were evaluated and in both the capture is based on amine technology: pre-combustion capture of CO 2 from the fuel gas derived from biomass gasification, and post-combustion capture from gas turbine exhaust gases. Information from the scientific literature was used in modelling the systems, as well as estimating energy penalties and costs associated with capturing, transporting and storing CO 2. The results indicate technical feasibility of both capture options, but difficulties in setting the full integration of the power unit (BIG-CC) with the sugarcane mill and the CCS system, due to the high demand for thermal energy as low-pressure steam. The estimated CO 2 abatement cost is in the range 60–71 €/tCO 2 for pre-combustion capture, and 52–63 €/tCO 2 in the case of post-combustion. Feasibility results are impacted by the scale of CO 2 capture (0.82–1.44 MtCO 2 /year), particularly in the pre-combustion case, and the relatively high cost of electricity generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lateral and vertical distribution of sedimentary facies and ichnofacies in lacustrine systems records sensitive climatic variations and rates of subsidence. The Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous lacustrine system of the Pastos Bons Formation in the Parnaíba Basin, northeastern Brazil, is an excellent opportunity to evaluate the depositional history of the post-CAMP thermal subsidence. This subsidence event succeeded the voluminous emplacement of mafic magma linked to the Central Atlantic magmatic province (CAMP), ∼201 Ma, forming a large subsiding area in West Gondwana. In this sense, this paper developed outcrop-based facies and ichnofacies analysis, allowing the interpretation of two depositional phases and four facies associations (FAs): 1) The lower depositional phase comprises lacustrine deposits showing an aggradational stacking pattern. FA1 - central lake records fibrous gypsum interbedded with fossiliferous shale beds, forming shallowing-upward cycles. 2) The upper depositional phase reveals a fluvio-lacustrine succession, forming a progradational stacking pattern. Central lake (FA1) comprises laminated mudstone and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Mermia ichnofacies, forming coarsening-upward cycles. Lakeshore (FA2) comprising mudstone beds, limestone lenses, and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Scoyenia ichnofacies, forming shallowing-upward cycles; and conglomerate lenses overlaid by sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Skolithos ichnofacies, forming fining-upward cycles. A braided fluvial system (FA3) comprises conglomerate and sandstone beds, forming fining-upward cycles. Delta front (FA4) comprises mudstone lenses and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Skolithos ichnofacies, organized in coarsening-upward cycles. The fluvial discharge and wave activity oxygenated the water lake in the progradational phase, creating chemical and biological conditions that allowed the establishment of the epifaunal and infaunal benthic communities, represented by the well-preserved ichnological record. The decrease of the post-CAMP thermal subsidence rates (accommodation potential) related with the increase of the wet periods to the top of the succession (sedimentary supply) indicate a depositional evolution from underfilled to overfilled lake basin, during Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous, in West Gondwana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use palynology and geochemical proxies to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation changes within the hydrographic basin of Parnaíba, Northeast Brazil, over the last 130 kyrs. Findings are based on the analysis of a marine sediment core (GL-1248) retrieved from the western equatorial Atlantic (0°55.2′S, 43°24.1′W), close to the coast. Geochemical proxies (Fe/K ratio and Ɛ Nd) indicative of soil erosion match changes in reconstructed vegetation, suggesting a dynamic pattern of hydrological disturbances and ecosystem evolution. Given that reconstructed vegetation does not present the same response to precipitation anomalies on the millennial scale, we sought the main drivers of vegetation changes in the Parnaíba watershed. Results indicate that vegetation succession was primarily influenced by austral insolation from March to May, which triggered changes in the pioneer vegetation types. Our study improves the knowledge of tropical vegetation dynamics in an orbital framework, suggesting 23-kyr precessional cycles as the main driver of landscape evolution in Northeast (NE) Brazil. We also infer that such past climate change events may have been a key causal factor of the high biodiversity of the Neotropics, mediated through the biological exchange of the Amazon and Atlantic rainforest species via ecological forest corridors in the semi-arid Northeast Brazil. • We discuss vegetation change and how it reflects hydrological changes within the Parnaíba Basin, northeastern (NE) Brazil, over the past 130 kyrs • Geochemical proxies (Fe/K ratio and ƐNd) in core GL-1248 are synchronous with reconstructed vegetation patterns, highlighting periods of enhanced or reduced local soil erosion during hydrological disturbances • We define three major vegetation groups (tropical dry forest, lowland rainforest, and wetland), and the discrepancy in water requirements between tropical dry forests and lowland rainforests is discussed • Analysis of the hydroclimatic mechanisms in NE Brazil that triggered the succession of vegetation during glacial phases is discussed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil was the first country to submit a reference level (RL) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aiming to claim results-based payments for reduced emissions from deforestation in the REDD+ mechanism. This voluntary RL submission has passed an official technical assessment process by the UNFCCC on the accordance of the data and method applied, which was finalised in December 2014. After years of international negotiations this has become possible by the REDD+ framework finally agreed. Although never formally adopted, the rules of procedure of the UNFCCC foresee consensus among the 196 parties to the convention. Due to the wide heterogeneity in national circumstances and capacities between these parties, the decided REDD+ framework represents a compromise, and in some points space for interpretation remains due to a lack of clear definitions. E.g., no internationally standardised method exists for the design of RLs under UNFCCC; rather each country has the possibility to apply its own approach within a given range of requirements. We argue that these nationally designed RLs involve the danger of raising a ‘cherry-picking’ mentality, which would reduce cost-efficiency of the payments. Especially in the light of the ongoing pressure to fight anthropogenic global climate change, the overall objective of REDD+ should be climate effectiveness. Therefore, apparently contradictory objectives—of integrating as many developing countries as possible, by keeping the barriers low, and of effective emission reductions by persisting on strict rules for national carbon accounting—had to be balanced. According to the technical assessment by the UNFCCC, the submitted Brazilian RL fulfils all formal requirements. However, as implication of the negotiated framework, there remain some questions on the climate effectiveness and the cost-efficiency of the submitted approach, which this viewpoint paper aims to critically reflect. Brazil chose for its present RL design the eligible options of a subnational coverage, with consideration of the activity of deforestation only. But only comprehensive accounting of all activities on national scale can ensure that all potential emissions are accounted for. By the present accounting gap, doubts on climate effectiveness arise. Furthermore, Brazil chose a fixed starting year for historic emissions and did not consider national circumstances, which results in reference emissions of about 1100 Mt CO 2 /a between 2006 and 2010. This potentially profitable RL setting for Brazil raises doubt on the cost-efficiency of the implied REDD+ payment. Whether these problems arising from the four eligible but critical RL options applied by Brazil emerge in other RLs as well, was checked for further five RL proposals submitted up to now. None of these country submissions has passed the technical assessment yet. The submitted approaches for RL design differ among the considered countries but one can see a tendency towards profitable individual RL definitions, similar to the Brazilian RL. From our findings we conclude that individually determined RLs without standardised methods bear the risk of national ‘cherry-picking’ which can compromise climate effectiveness and cost-efficiency of the whole REDD+ mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil is one of the first major developing countries to commit to a national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target that requires a reduction of between 36.1% and 38.9% relative to baseline emissions by 2020. The country intends to submit agricultural emissions reductions as part of this target, with livestock production identified as offering significant abatement potential. Focusing on the Cerrado core (central Brazilian savannah), this paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of this potential, which involves some consideration of both the private and social costs and benefits (e.g. including avoided deforestation) arising from specific mitigation measures that may form part of Brazil's definition of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Measures (NAMAs). The analysis used an optimisation model to define abatement costs. A baseline projection suggests that beef production in the region will emit 2.6 Gt CO 2 e (CO 2 equivalent) from 2010 to 2030, corresponding to 9% of national emissions (including energy, transport, waste, livestock and agriculture). By implementing negative-cost measures identified in a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) by 2030, the 2.6 Gt CO 2 e could be reduced by around 24%. Pasture restoration, involving avoided deforestation, offers the largest contribution to these results. As the Brazilian Cerrado is seen as a model for transforming other global savannahs, the results offer a significant contribution by identifying alternatives for increasing productivity while minimizing national and global external costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies dealing with the reconstruction of Holocene climate change of tropical areas are scarce. Of these, multi-proxy investigations using peatlands are still absent. In this paper, we present the Holocene record of environmental changes in central–eastern Brazil reconstructed from a core sampled in Pau de Fruta mire (Serra do Espinhaço Meridional, Brazil). We combined palynological and geochemical analyses, supported by core stratigraphy, 14 C dating and multivariate statistics. The location of the mire is ideal because it is in an area which is directly associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Six main phases of change suggested by vegetation and local and regional landscape dynamics were described. In phase I (~ 10,000–7360 cal. yr BP) the climate was very wet and cold and was accompanied by soil instability in the mire catchment (severe local erosion) and the 8.2 ka event was easily recognizable by a large increase in the deposition of regional dust. Phase II (~ 7360–4200 cal. yr BP) was characterized by wet and warm conditions, catchment soil stability and enhanced deposition of regional dust. In phase III (~ 4200–2200 cal. yr BP), climate was dry and warm and soil erosion in the catchment increased again. In phase IV (~ 2200–1160 cal. yr BP) dry and punctuated cooling was reconstructed, together with enhanced deposition of regional dust. Phase V (~ 1160–400 cal. yr BP) reflects sub-humid climatic conditions (like the current climate), the lowest inputs of local and regional dust and the largest accumulation of peat in the mire. While in phase VI (< ~ 400 cal. yr BP) sub-humid conditions continued but both local and regional erosion significantly increased. Our results demonstrate that the tropical peatlands of Serra do Espinhaço Meridional contain relevant records of Holocene climate changes, and that a multi-proxy approach offers good opportunities for a detailed reconstruction of palaeoenvironments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazilian merchant pig iron (MPI) mills, even those relying exclusively on charcoal, are at least as harmful to the global climate as the coal-based competitors they confront in international trade. However, when timber from deforestation is replaced by sustainably managed forest plantations, a carbon neutral process emerges. Yet the cost of growing trees can be large enough to discourage mills from pursuing such a climate change mitigation route. The paper shows that the impasse can be overcome by the improvement of pyrolysis kilns coupled with a multilateral agreement in which (1) Brazil supplies attested carbon-neutral MPI and (2) importers of Brazilian MPI take environmental concerns to the field of MPI trade, paying a premium of 19% of MPI price or of US$3 per ton of avoided emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-cover change detection using satellite remote sensing is largely confined to the era of Landsat satellites, from 1972 to present. However, the Corona, Argon, and Lanyard intelligence satellites operated by the U.S. government between 1960 and 1972 have the potential to provide an important extension of the long-term record of Earth’s land surface. Recently declassified, the archive of images recorded by these satellites contains hundreds of thousands of photographs, many of which have very high ground resolution- 6–9 ft (1.8–2.7 m) even by today’s standards. This paper demonstrates methods for extending the span of forest-cover change analysis from the Landsat-5 and -7 era (1984 to present) to the previous era covered by the Corona archive in two study areas: one area covered predominantly by urban and sub-urban land uses in the eastern US and another area by tropical forest in central Brazil. We describe co-registration of Corona and Landsat images, extraction of texture features from Corona images, classification of Corona and Landsat images, and post-classification change detection based on the resulting thematic dataset. Second-order polynomial transformation of Corona images yielded geometric accuracy relative to Landsat-7 of 18.24 m for the urban area and 29.35 m for the tropical forest study area, generally deemed adequate for pixel-based change detection at Landsat resolution. Classification accuracies were approximately 95% and 96% for forest/non-forest discrimination for the temperate urban and tropical forest study areas, respectively. Texture within 7 × 7- to 9 × 9-pixel (∼13.0–16.5 m) neighborhoods and within 11 × 11-pixel (∼30 m) neighborhoods were the most informative metrics for forest classification in Corona images in the temperate and tropical study areas, respectively. The trajectory of change from the 1960s to 2000s differed between the two study areas: the average annual forest loss rate in the urban area doubled from 0.68% to 1.9% from the 1960s to the mid-1980s and then decreased during the following decade. In contrast, deforestation in the Brazilian study area continued at a slightly increased pace between the 1960s and 1990s at annual loss rate of 0.62–0.79% and quickly slowed down afterward. This study demonstrates the strong potential of declassified Corona images for detecting historical forest changes in these study regions and suggests increased utility for retrieving a wide range of land cover histories around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial modelling is a resourceful approach largely used in land use planning and occupation dynamics. The use of land change and urban growth simulations are indispensable for supporting the development and implementation of urban planning policies. This paper develops potential scenarios of land use change (status-quo and law enforcement) and urban occupation in the north coast of São Paulo using spatial dynamics modelling. Cellular automata-based modelling and EGO Dynamic simulations were used to produce past and future scenarios of land use occupation and growth expansion. These scenarios are compared between them and with vulnerability maps to identify areas at risk. The outcomes show that the north coast of São Paulo is highly vulnerable to expansion of irregular occupations when regulations are not enforced. Forest areas are the first areas to be suppressed by an unsystematic urban development. The extent to which people are exposed to environmental and climatic changes is influenced by urban infrastructure developments and decision making regulations. Findings of this work can guide future planning decisions on such as the revision of the ecological-economic zoning and local land use plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Araucaria Plateau is a geomorphological unit that occupies approximately three-quarters of the terrain in the southern region of Brazil. The plateau displays different altitudinal levels (600 to <1400 m a.s.l.) that are locally recognized as remnants of planed surfaces (S8-S1). These surfaces are maintained by basic (S3-S8) and acidic (S1 and S2) volcanic flows from the Neocretaceous period of the Paraná Basin. The largest extent of this plateau is located in a humid subtropical climate zone. Colluvial, colluvial-alluvial, alluvial sediments and paleosols (Ab diagnostic horizons) occur predominantly in S2. The paleosols are located in low-hierarchical-order fossil valleys (first- to fourth-order in Strahler's stream classification) and valley heads, which are referred to as paleovalleys in this paper. We employed these paleosols as stratigraphic level markers of the pedogenesis of the regional Upper Quaternary and propose their importance as records of the paleoenvironmental conditions of the Araucaria Plateau in areas above 1200 m a.s.l. These paleosols were dated by 14C and show ages between 23.8 ± 0.05 kyr BP (28.06-29.08 kyr cal. BP) and 41.16 ± 0.48 kyr BP (44.13-45.58 kyr cal. BP). The calibrated ages are related to Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), in which the last period of global warming occurred (approximately 60-25 kyr cal. BP). We integrated the morphological, pedogeochemical, clay fraction mineralogy, micromorphological and δC-13 analyses of five paleosols from S2 to verify the paleoenvironmental conditions of the Araucaria Plateau and its correspondence with the paleoclimatic phenomena that were identified on a global scale during MIS 3 in the Southern Hemisphere. We obtained the following conclusions: a) the properties of paleosols reflect pedological processes that are adjusted to the paleoenvironmental conditions at the end of MIS 3 and the transition to MIS 2 (Last Glacial Maximum); b) aplasmogenic partial acidolysis was the predominant pedogeochemical process during MIS 3; c) during this period, the water regime was sufficiently humid to develop hydromorphic horizons in the valley bottoms of the entire drainage network to the valley heads; d) regional change toward a drier hydric regime occurred in MIS 2, when erosion of the paleosols predominated; and e) in MIS 1 (current Holocene interglacial), burial of the paleosols and relief inversion occurred, which resulted in fossilization of the valleys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fake controversies have influenced policy making on health and environmental issues for decades, resulting in major implementation setbacks worldwide. As a case study, in this paper we examine fake controversies produced by a small group of active Brazilian researchers that have seriously impacted environmental conservation, particularly in issues related to deforestation and climate change. Based on the literature, we develop a typology of strategies deployed in fake controversies, which include manufacturing uncertainty, misusing scientific credentials, and disregarding scientific literature. Afterwards, we examine the influence of this group of contrarians at the National Congress. We then analyze the fake controversies promoted by these contrarians and argue that, to properly understand them, we need to consider a strategy so far overlooked in the literature: the manufacture of "pseudo-facts", namely, affirmations at odds with the established literature but that strives to appear as scientific facts. Unlike other contexts, in which contrarians have mainly sought to cast doubt on consensual issues by arguing that there are still considerable uncertainties surrounding them, in Brazil pseudo-facts on deforestation have been produced and published outside the peer-reviewed literature. We conclude the study with recommendations on how to oppose fake scientific controversies that threaten environmental conservation in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents preliminary results of paleoclimatic signatures of conifer woods during the deposition of the basal Crato and topmost Romualdo members of the Santana Formation within the Tropical Equatorial Hot Arid Belt (late Aptian, Araripe Basin, Brazil). Analysis was carried out using standard thin sections, and the anatomical details were studied in transmitted light. The wood growth pattern from the lowermost laminated lacustrine carbonate level of the Crato Member was characterized by the absence of true growth rings and the common presence of wood growth interruptions, and could be linked to a tropical, equable but erratically humid environment. In an interlayered fine-to-coarse sandstone level attributed to a fluvio-deltaic interval, the wood growth pattern was homogeneous, lacking true growth rings, with weakly delineated growth interruptions over long radial distances. In this level the growth pattern could be related with a transition to a more equable tropical climate during a relatively humid period. In contrast, the wood pattern from the carbonate succession of the uppermost Romualdo Member, interpreted as a lagoon area with marine influence, showed true growth rings with abrupt ring boundaries and rings of variable width, also including frequent growth interruptions. This pattern could be linked to a monsoonal-like climate, subjected to distinct cyclical conditions and periodical droughts during the growing season. • Preliminary wood growth data showed changing climate along the Santana Formation. • A tropical, erratically humid climate was inferred for the lacustrine Crato Member. • Equable humid conditions occurred in the fluvio-deltaic Crato Member. • A tropical monsoon-like climate was inferred for Romualdo Member. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We calibrated the DSSAT/CROPGRO for several soybean maturity groups. • Crop model showed good performance under different tropical conditions. • Water productivity increase can ensure the future growth of soybean yield. • Mean soybean yields increase likely in the future climate due to CO 2 increase. In the next decades, the population is expected to rise by more than two billion people, and the projections of climate change have been considered as one of the greatest future challenges for world food security. Soybean represents more than 60 % of all plant protein produced in the world, and Brazil is the largest world exporter and the second-largest producer. In this paper, we simulated soybean yields for 16 strategically selected agroclimatic zones (CZs) to represent Brazilian production. Experiments conducted throughout the country were used to calibrate the CROPGRO-Soybean model for Brazilian conditions, for the main maturity groups used in Brazil, to simulate current and 40 future climate scenarios, provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for 2050 in the both 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCP). We found soybean yield varying by +1 to +32 % across 16 CZs in the average scenario of future climate when compared to the current yields. Yet, we found an increase of about 5% in the yield production risk for RCP 8.5. The main reason for such results was associated with the positive effect of increasing CO 2 on crop water productivity, which overcomes the negative effects of temperature and water stress increases on rainfed Brazilian soybeans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Future impacts of LULC and climate on the streamflow and erosion by new approaches. • SWAT model was applied to estimate future runoff-erosion. • Future climate data generated using GCM coupled to regional circulation model. • The methodology contextualizes potentially significant hydrological changes. • The changes may impact the sustainability of water resources management. Water management in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone in Brazil is critically dependent on better understanding of potential future changes in streamflow and sediment dynamics. This paper evaluates both the future impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes and the impacts of climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield in the Tapacurá River basin in northeastern Brazil, using a novel combination of approaches. Projected climate data derived using global circulation model HadGEM2-ES were coupled to regional circulation model ETA-CPTEC/HadCM3 for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), with bias correction. Two future LULC scenarios were generated: (a) optimistic (current LULC), and (b) pessimistic (land use change trends continue), using the multilayer perceptron algorithm (MP). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to estimate future streamflow and erosion for different periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099). The SWAT model was calibrated for period of 1995–2003 and validated for 2004–2013. The results showed good accuracy in relation to R2, NSE and PBIAS for the calibration and validation of the runoff, as well as for the verification of the sediment yield. Simulations indicated significant increases in erosion for the pessimistic scenario under RCP 8.5, followed by the pessimistic scenario and RCP 4.5. Lower sediment yields occurred for the optimistic and RCP 8.5, with lower still for the optimistic and RCP 4.5. However, the latter estimates are still considerably higher than baseline conditions. Although higher flows are found for some scenarios, the increases in sediment yield have serious implications for reservoir siltation and storage reduction. Despite modeling uncertainty, the results demonstrate that the proposed methodology has promising scope to contextualize potentially significant regional hydrological changes which have implications for land and biodiversity management and the sustainability of water resources in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Evaporation trends of tropical reservoirs in Brazil were investigated. • Both positive and negative trends in evaporation were observed. • In the industrial region, the negative trend was potentially caused by the impact of pollutant released to the atmosphere. • In the coastal region, the positive trend was related to increasing air temperature. This paper aims to analyze the trends (Mann-Kendall test) of evaporation and climatological variables, including air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed in four reservoirs located in the Brazilian Northeast. The evaporation was estimated through remote sensing using the Surface Energy Balance System for Water (AquaSEBS) model from 1985 to 2018. In addition, it was verified which meteorological parameter has the highest correlation (R2) with the evaporation in order to assess why this process is changing throughout the years in each reservoir. The model performed well, with root mean square error (RMSE) ≤ 1.25 mm/day, percent bias (PBIAS) ≤ 13.70% and coefficient of determination (R2) ≥ 0.51. One reservoir located closer to a coastal zone presented a positive trend (+0.24 mm/34 years), corroborating the measurements of a reference class A pan, and Penman-Monteith equation, while the others, located closer to industrial areas, displayed negative trends (−0.26 to −0.080 mm/34 years). This reduced evaporation was attributed to the impact of industrial pollutant release to the atmosphere, while the increasing effect in the other reservoir was due to its proximity to the coast, which implies an air renewal as the sea breeze contributes for an improvement in the air quality. The meteorological data also presented positive and negative correlations: Temperature exhibited a positive trend (+0.57 °C/34 years), whereas humidity (−4.83%) and wind speed (−0.29 m/s), a negative trend. Evaporation displayed moderate coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.31) with wind speed and humidity. Yet, the reduction of evaporation may be associated with a possible counterbalancing effect of wind speed over humidity. Overall, the results contribute to a better understanding of evaporation trends in a water-scarce region and can be used in a water resources management context as the increasing/reduction of evaporation might significantly impact water availability in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change effects can have significant impacts worldwide. Extreme events can modify water availability and agricultural production, making climate change planning an essential task. The National Institute for Space Research (INPE in Portuguese) in Brazil has made a large dataset of regional climate model outputs (simulations and projections) available, which opens up many possibilities of carrying out high-resolution climate change studies. However, there is still no performance evaluation of the model-derived rainfall output against high-resolution ground-based observation data considering the Brazilian biomes. This paper attempts to fill this gap and evaluates the simulated precipitation throughout Brazil. We used gridded observed precipitation data and historical climate simulations from the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5) and from the Hadley Center Global Environment Model, version 2 (HadGEM2-ES), which were downscaled by the Eta RCM (Regional Climate Model). For the overlapping period (1980–2005), there is good agreement (PBIAS up to 10%) of downscaled annual simulations for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes and large biases (reaching 40%) in the Pampa biome, compared to the observations. Our results showed that HadGEM2-ES is capable of representing long-term mean monthly precipitation for large areas well, such as the Amazon and Cerrado. Furthermore, the Eta RCM has considerably improved the driving GCM MIROC5 simulations. In conclusion, we recommend using the HadGEM2-ES simulations for the Amazon, Eta/HadGEM2-ES for the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Pampa, and Eta/MIROC5 for the Caatinga and Pantanal. Our study provides an overview of two downscaled simulation datasets in Brazil that may help verify the models' suitability for further climate change assessments. • We evaluated the so far most detailed precipitation projections for Brazil. • We compared the Eta RCM and driving GCMs against high-resolution observed dataset. • HadGEM2-ES GCM can represent the precipitation for large areas, such as the Amazon. • Eta RCM considerably improved the MIROC5 GCM precipitation simulations in all biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The global production network framework is a helpful heuristic device to understand how environmental governance emerges within forest landscape restoration practices. • Forest landscape restoration in Brazil responds to a multi-scalar governance network connecting disparate actors through constructed demands. • While community organisations have influenced the nature and structure of the restoration network in the Amazon, they are subservient to the governance exerted by ultimate buyers of ecosystem services. • Although some restoration drivers are vulnerable to domestic political change, the dispersed nature of network governance should be strategically pursued as it enhances network resilience. Over the last few decades, numerous initiatives have advanced forest landscape restoration in the Amazon, and in 2015 the Brazilian government set an ambitious, still-valid, target to restore 4.8 million hectares of degraded Amazonian land by 2030. This has contributed to an emergent global restoration network that connects multiple stakeholders and processes for funding, implementing and monitoring restoration actions in such a way that prepares various ecosystem services for market integration. The network arose in tandem with the evolution of an institutional framework that includes regulatory requirements within Brazil, global commitments linked to climate change mitigation, corporate sustainability strategies, and the growth of crowd-sourcing activism. This paper presents restoration activities as embedded within a Global Production Network (GPN) for an ecosystem service, which we use as a heuristic device to inform our understanding of emergent environmental governance structures. The resulting multi-scalar, networked mode of environmental governance is presented as a web-like structure co-created by institutional evolution, actor-specific strategies, and interactions between firms and non-firm actors. The article pays particular attention to a case study of how the restoration network manifests territorially in the Upper Xingu region of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite the strong North-South orientation of dominant funding relationships, network governance is also seen to be relational. This is evident from the dissemination of ideas, supply models and seeding techniques from Upper Xingu to other regions of Brazil. These insights could be applied to improve landscape restoration outcomes, and indeed the provisioning of ecosystem services more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Mean annual increment (MAI) changes in greater proportion than basic density (BD). • Precipitation and temperature have more influence over the wood BD and MAI variations. • The SWS had no significant influence on changes in the BD and MAI. • Clones E5 and G7 are more sensitive to climatic variations than clone P7. • Groups were formed based on a 80% score, representing the original BD and MAI variables. Eucalyptus plantations are some of the most productive, and adaptable to different environmental conditions. However, harsh environmental conditions can limit the quality of the wood, and its potential use. The TECHS project investigates the sensitivity of 18 eucalyptus clones to environmental stresses, and their productivity responses in different edaphoclimatic scenarios. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the influence of edaphoclimatic variables on the basic density (BD), and mean annual increment (MAI) of eucalyptus wood. Three different clones, planted at 10 growth sites in Brazil, 4 years of age, were analyzed. During the years 2012 to 2015. Variables such as precipitation, temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and the water storage capacity of the soil were considered. Canonical correlation techniques, principal components, and cluster analyses were performed in order to verify if there were influences of any of the edaphoclimatic variables on the set of production variables (BD and MAI). The variables were also used to organize the sites into groups based on their similarities. There was a significant influence of the edaphoclimatic variables at the different sites regarding the BD and MAI variables (r U1V1 = 0.77). Precipitation was positively correlated with the production variable (0.64), while the temperature (−0.59) and the vapor pressure deficit (−0.52) correlated negatively. The water storage capacity of the soil did not contribute to the set of edaphoclimatic variables that affected the production variable (0.16). Among the clones studied, E5 and G7 were more sensitive to climatic variations in different sites than the clone P7. The responses of the wood to the BD and MAI are clone-specific, and the mean annual increment of the wood changes in a greater proportion than the basic density faced with environmental variations. Understanding the responses of eucalyptus clones to environmental variations, mainly temperature and precipitation, facilitates forest planning, regarding the supply, and the quality of the wood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]