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A random walk with drift is a good univariate representation of US GDP. This paper shows, however, that US economic downturns have been associated with predictable short-term recoveries and with changes in long-term GDP forecasts that are substantially smaller than the initial drop. To detect these predictable changes, it is important to use a multivariate time series model. We discuss reasons why univariate representations can miss key characteristics of the underlying variable such as predictability, especially during recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we evaluate empirically the impact of fiscal policy on two key determinants of long-term growth, i.e., private investment and productivity growth. We mostly focus on a panel of 20 OECD economies from 1970 to 2009, although we also present some estimates based on data for 80 developing economies. Our findings suggest that high public debt adversely affects both aggregate investment spending and productivity growth, through distortions related to the size of the public sector. We also find weak evidence of some non-linear effects on productivity, with government debt becoming more detrimental in advanced economies when above 85-90% of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper uses an instrumental variables approach to estimate the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Instrumental variables estimates show that economic growth has a significant negative contemporaneous effect on trade openness, while trade openness has a significant positive effect on economic growth. A 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of trade over GDP is associated with a short-run increase in growth of approximately 0.5% in a given year; the cumulative long-run effect on the level of GDP per capita is larger, reaching about 2%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the determinants of regional economic growth in the European Union adopting a non-parametric approach. Although the local-linear kernel estimator applied does not explicitly take into account the spatial dimension of the data, it is found to be consistent in our context. In addition, the geographically weighted regression turns out to be less efficient. We obtain evidence of a non-linear relationship between regional growth and its determinants in the form of parameter heterogeneity and threshold effects. These non-linearities mainly affect the initial productivity of labour, the human capital endowment and, as a novelty, the level of infrastructures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper tests Jared Diamond's influential theory that an earlier transition from a hunter-gatherer society to agricultural production induces higher levels of technology adoption. Using a proxy for the geographic diffusion barriers of Neolithic technology and an index of biogeographic endowments to isolate the exogenous component of the timing of agricultural transition, the findings indicate that countries that experienced earlier transitions to agriculture were subsequently more capable of adopting new technologies in 1000 BC, 1 AD, and 1500 AD. These results lend strong support to Diamond's hypothesis. ( JEL O30, O40) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Given its significant policy implications, the nexus between public expenditures and economic growth has been the subject of an extensive and often emotive theoretical and empirical debate. In this paper, a semiparametric model is used to explore the link between GDP and defence and non-defence government spending in the USA over the period 1929-2009. Evidence reported herein indicates that the latter represents a greater stimulus vis-à-vis the former. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chilean governments since 1990 have relied on economic growth to generate employment, higher wages and better conditions of employment. But the results of this policy have been mixed: quantitative improvements in employment and wages have not been matched by improvements in job quality. Contrasting Chile's seemingly rigid regulatory framework with its actual labour market flexibility, the authors stress the importance of employment conditions in assessing labour market performance. They empirically explore the effects of individual and job characteristics on employment and income-generating capabilities, whose most powerful determinant, they find, is employment under an open-ended contract. They conclude with a discussion of policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among low- and middle-income countries, there is evidence that populations experiencing rapid political and economic transition have particularly high burdens of disease and disability from mental health conditions. This paper undertakes a political economy analysis of mental health in Vietnam to enhance knowledge translation, notably how both explicit and tacit knowledge can be used to promote evidence-based policy making. It argues that Vietnam's experience illustrates the need to better understand, not only how transition transforms societies, but how it impacts on the mental health needs and care of populations. The political economy of transition in Vietnam has so far given highest priority to economic growth through integration with the world economy and public sector reform. There is a need to recognise that transition in Vietnam poses both a potential threat to the care of people with mental health needs, and an opportunity to develop mental health services appropriate to local contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific islands region is currently experiencing an intensification of interest in culture as an enabler, rather than an inhibitor, of development. The emerging field of cultural economics seeks to chart ways in which culture can lead to both economic development and also to other goals, such as positive social relationships, community cohesion and maintenance and enjoyment of cultural heritage. However, bringing together these different range of goals at times involves tensions, often manifested in differences between individual autonomy and family and community obligations, generational focus and clashes of cultural logics. This paper investigates these tensions through the lens of intellectual property, an area where competing ideologies and perspectives of entitlement often come head to head. It identifies and reflects upon four areas of tension that will have to be navigated as the region experiments with both global models of intellectual property and national and local regulatory mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to retrace the evolution of mathematical models focused on relation and interaction between economic growth, sustainable development, and natural environment conservation. First, generic defensive expenditures are introduced into a common-property harvesting model in order to favor the species growth. Second, a transition model comprising both harvesting and nonharvesting values of wildlife biological species emerges. The latter gives rise to a group of purely nonharvesting models where anthropic activities and economic growth may have positive or negative impact on the natural evolution of wildlife species. Several scholars have proved that optimal strategies that are relatively good for harvesting purposes are not simply 'transferrable' to the context of conservation of wildlife biological species with no harvesting value. In addition, the existence of optimal policies for long-term conservation of all biological species (with or without harvesting value) cannot be guaranteed without having relatively large species populations at the initial time. Therefore, all such strategies are incapable of enhancing the scarce populations of endangered species and, therefore, cannot save these species from eventual (local) extinction. As an alternative, policymakers may soon be compelled to design and implement short-term defensive actions aimed at recovery and enhancement of endangered wildlife species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests that the weak empirical effect of human capital on growth in existing cross-country studies is partly the result of an inappropriate specification that does not account for the different channels through which human capital affects growth. A systematic replication of earlier results from the literature shows that both initial levels and changes in human capital have positive growth effects, while in isolation each channel often appears insignificant. The results suggest that the effect of human capital is likely to be underestimated in empirical specifications that do not account for both channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that corruption in developing countries has deep historical roots that go all the way back to their colonial experience. We substantiate our thesis with empirical evidence where the degree of European settlement during colonial times is a powerful explanatory factor of present-day corruption. Interestingly, our mechanism is different from the prevailing view in the literature on institutions and growth, where European settlement has only positive effects. We argue that European settlement leads to higher levels of corruption for all countries where Europeans remained a minority in the population, i.e. for all developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses non-compulsory secondary school enrolment of immigrant students in Italy. Such enrolment implies a voluntary decision and can influence future career paths in the labour market. The results show that the enrolment rates of immigrants are lower than those of Italians. Immigrant students prefer vocational schools and shorter-term education. The pattern of these preferences remains constant across the throughout Italy, even if Italy presents strong differences in the economic development of its regions, with rich Northern and poor Southern regions. The enrolment rates of second-generation immigrant students differ from those of first-generation students, but the size of this component is still too small to indicate a clear trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the relationship between banking sector development, stock market development, economic growth, and four other macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries for the period 1961–2012. Using principal component analysis for the construction of the development indices and a panel vector auto-regressive model for testing the Granger causalities, this study finds the presence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality links between these variables. The study contributes to understanding the importance of the interrelationship between the variables and combines the different strands of the literature. It also contributes to the literature by focusing on a group of countries that have not been studied before. One particular policy recommendation is to make the banking sector more accessible for those country's inhabitants that do not have bank accounts. Another policy recommendation is to nurture stock market development, which will facilitate the increased raising of capital for investment purposes to enhance economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite recognition of the potential economic benefits and increasing interest in developing marketing instruments, water markets have remained thin and slow to evolve due to high transactions costs, third party effects, and the persistence of historical institutions for water allocation. Water banks are a marketing instrument that can address these obstacles to trade, allowing irrigators within a region to exchange water in order to mitigate the short-term effects of drought. Water banks coexist with the institutions governing water allocation, which implies that rule changes, such as adoption of a system of conjunctive surface water-groundwater administration, carry implications for the economic impacts of banking. This paper assesses and compares the welfare and distributional outcomes for irrigators in the Eastern Snake River Plain of Idaho under a suite of water management and drought scenarios. We find that water banking can offset irrigators' profit losses during drought, but that its ability to do so depends on whether it facilitates trade across groundwater and surface water users. With conjunctive administration, a bank allowing trade by source realizes 22.23% of the maximum potential efficiency gains from trade during a severe drought, while a bank that allows trade across sources realizes 93.47% of the maximum potential gains. During drought, conjunctive administration redistributes welfare from groundwater to surface water producers, but banking across sources allows groundwater irrigators to recover 88.4% of the profits lost from drought at a cost of 2.2% of the profit earned by surface water irrigators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late Victorian Britain was very important in the development of British dominance in light consumer goods industries, such as fermented liquors and spirits; detergents and perfumery; bicycles and other carriages; paper, stationery, and bookbinding; and games of all kinds and sports goods. Firms developed technology-based innovations and marketing-based innovations, creating abnormal peaks of trademark registrations in certain industries. This article investigates those peaks and shows that factors usually pointed out as explaining British economic decline in heavy industries did not impact on the development of light consumer goods industries, and on the contrary encouraged their fast growth during this period. Trademark registrations are shown to provide new insights into the debate on British relative decline, when combined with other industry and firm-level data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers the author's perspective on the significance of efficiency and modernization as the goals for the journal's improvement. The author commends the journal's decision with regards to the reviewing process of the editorial board. The author adds that the journal's savings of an on-line version will allow them to increase the number of issues annually and decrease the long time that takes between the acceptance date and publication.

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We document novel facts about the relationship between aggregate growth and firm dynamics using a large set of countries. We argue that firm employment patterns are not necessarily informative about cross‐country differences in aggregate growth because they are induced by changes in the productivity of a firm relative to others. In contrast, aggregate growth is linked to average firm‐level productivity growth and firm age. We formalize this intuition through a tractable model of endogenous aggregate growth and firm dynamics where firms realize positive returns to investment with some probability. We find that cross‐country disparities in this probability can account for two‐thirds of the variation in aggregate growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Studying exchange rate pass‐through in Turkey for the period of 2006m1‐2015m6, we first show that the commonly used recursive VAR model generates unrealistic dynamics like effects of domestic variables on external variables in small open economies and biased estimates. Bias comes from unrealistic decline in energy prices in response to depreciation of currency. However, a more realistic structural VAR model suitable for small open economies generates more sensible dynamics and suggests a higher pass‐through than the recursive VAR model. Overall, our analysis demonstrates the importance of using a more realistic model setup and checking the relationships across variables when estimating ERPT in small open economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We build an overlapping generations model to analyse the evolution of inequality as an economy develops. Our model economy resembles a 'very capitalist society'. Initially, wealth is exclusively concentrated in a rich dynasty. We ask whether or not this type of capitalist economy contains a fundamental contradiction, as claimed by Piketty in his recent book. We derive a condition under which the economy is driven to a state of perpetual inequality. However, we also show that an economy where capital deepening triggers the development process is very unlikely to be absorbed in that state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major political parties support the tenet of the original GST agreement that GST change requires unanimous state approval. However, GST change could differentially affect state economies, and thus influence support from individual states. We investigate the potential for GST change to differentially affect state economies. We do this by developing a multi‐regional model of the Australian economy that contains details of the legislated features of the GST. In this model, when we change any element of the GST, the economic effects are informed by regional differences in economic structure and their interactions with the details of our GST theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal power is the main source of China's electricity supply. Improving total‐factor generation performance (TFGP) is essential for the development of this industry in the current deteriorating operating environment. This study adopts the meta‐frontier nonradial direction distance function approach to measure the static and dynamic TFGPs of the thermal power industry in China's 30 provinces in 2011–2019, and then discusses the regional distribution characteristics and the impact factors using spatial econometric model and Tobit regression method, respectively. Empirical results show that: (I) The TFGPs in central and west China are relatively close, but both are remarkably lower than that in east China. (II) The TFGPs in central and west China have generally remained stable since 2011, whereas that in west China has declined mainly because this region is more susceptible to the situation of electricity supply‐demand. (III) A significant spatial positive correlation exists among provincial TFGPs. High TFGP provinces are mostly in the eastern seaboard region and low TFGP provinces are in southwest China. (IV) Economic development, power structure, fuel prices, and environmental regulation have positive impacts on China's TFGP, while the impacts of technological innovation and energy endowment are not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unsustainable wildlife trade is a major threat to many species, but quantifying trade remains challenging, as seizure data provides an incomplete understanding. For this reason, integrating multiple types of information, including interviews with actors involved in trade, is crucial if we are to understand the problem better. Hence, in this study, we digitized Bangladesh Forest Department tiger seizure records to identify trade routes and interviewed 163 individuals involved in trafficking tigers through Bangladesh's air, sea and land ports, including poachers, smugglers, and traders. We identified six ports used to import tigers, 14 ports used for tiger export and three ports showing bi‐directional trade. Elite Bangladeshis were the most important consumer group, and tigers were sourced from populations in NE India, Myanmar and Bangladesh Sundarbans to supply domestic demand. Tiger products were exported to 14 countries, including seven G20 nations, with Bangladeshi expatriates as the consumer group in three countries (United Kingdom, Germany and Qatar). Rising economic development in Bangladesh over the last decade, combined with deep‐rooted cultural ties to tiger consumption, has led to a rise in domestic demand. Additionally, rapid growth in international transport links has increased smuggling and connected local traders with global markets, increasing the complexity of global trade. These findings suggest Bangladesh is poised to play a pivotal role in tiger conservation over the next decade, requiring strong national strategies to reduce trade opportunities, disrupt networks and weaken demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foresee advanced and innovative strategies is a key approach and constitutes a cornerstone for accessing clean, affordable, and reliable energy to satisfy the world's increasing prosperity and economic growth. To this end, hydrogen energy technologies parade as promising sustainable solutions to the looming energy crisis at either the small or large industrial scale, which will enable to reduce significantly our dependence on conventional energy sources based on fossil fuels without increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Water electrolysis with renewable energy is one of the best solutions to produce hydrogen without COx (CO and CO2) emissions. However, the practical realization of this elegant opportunity of paramount importance is facing several challenges, among which are: (i) the efficient design of cathode and anode catalytic materials exhibiting improved intrinsic and durable activity; (ii) the scale‐up of the system for the large‐scale hydrogen production through the electrochemical water splitting. This review puts these opportunities and challenges into a broad context, discusses the recent research and technological advances, and finally provides several pathways and guidelines that could inspire the development of groundbreaking electrochemical devices for hydrogen production. It also points out the materials design and preparation for the efficient electrochemical production of the molecular hydrogen in acidic and alkaline environments, from a simple electrolytic solution to the water splitting reaction, which is also considered in the process. Furthermore, the main technology keys for designing a reliable electrochemical system will be noticed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In response to the mounting risks posed by climate change, innovation and mitigation of pollution have emerged as key drivers of sustainable growth and the environment. This research aims to explore the effect of economic complexity and financial risk on the load capacity factor. The research employed a series of second‐generation techniques such as a method of moment quantile regression and Dumitrescu Hurlin panel causality covering the period between 1990 and 2018. The findings provided convincing evidence of cointegration. The long‐run analysis showed that renewable energy use, economic complexity and financial risk contribute to ecological quality. However, non‐renewable energy and economic progress threaten ecological quality by lessening the load capacity factor. The research revealed causality from financial risk, economic growth, disintegrated energy and economic complexity to load capacity factor. Lastly, a policy framework is proposed based on the study findings to accomplish the sustainable development goals (SDGs) 7, 13 and 17. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This book is a fascinating collection of 18 articles by Jan Fagerberg that highlight his essential contributions to developing and establishing the field of innovation studies. However, beyond the idea of an active state that fosters innovation, there is a crucial difference in that Fagerberg places a much larger focus on the firm (rather than the state) as the innovator. Towards the end of the book Fagerberg outlines the "grand challenges" he sees for European policy-makers: declining economic performance, a crisis of governance and climate change. [Extracted from the article]

We use two variants of Markov switching models to assess changes in output synchronization since the creation of the euro. Out of eight eurozone countries investigated, only one—the Netherlands—has synchronization increased since euro adoption, supporting the ‘endogenous optimal currency area’ argument of Frankel and Rose. However, in three other cases, business cycle synchronization actually fell since the euro's creation. Thus the ‘endogeneity’ of the optimal currency area criteria can go both ways—adopting a common currency may increase synchronization for nations ready for a common currency, but it can lower synchronization for nations that are far from synchronized before monetary unification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

I use data on U.S. manufacturing establishments to study the spatial reallocation of resources that takes place within surviving firms as they open and close establishments in different regions. To motivate the empirical analysis, I extend existing models of industry dynamics to include production‐location decisions within firms. Consistent with the theory, the empirical results show that only a fraction of firms make the same product in multiple regions, that multiregional firms are larger and more productive on average compared to single‐region firms, and that “region switching” is pervasive among multiregional firms and correlated with changes in firm and firm‐region characteristics. (JEL L2, F12, F23) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I construct a monthly index of economic uncertainty for Australia. Economic uncertainty rose to historically high levels during the financial crisis and remained elevated until late 2013. The index is: higher around recessions, elections, monetary policy surprises and some major events; tends to increase faster than it decreases; and is driven by both domestic and foreign factors. I use the index to assess how uncertainty affects the Australian economy. Consistent with the 'real options' channel of uncertainty, I find that it reduces investment and employment growth. Similarly, uncertainty raises the household saving ratio, consistent with the 'precautionary savings' channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Total factor productivity (TFP), factor accumulation, and growth are analysed for a panel of 40 countries in 2001-11. TFP growth and technical inefficiency are estimated using a stochastic frontier model. Environmental variables are found to have an important role in explaining differences in inefficiency across countries. Over 2001-11, the general improvement in technical efficiency of countries is almost outweighed by technological regress. Results indicate that differences in factor accumulation between OECD and emerging economies are more important than differences in TFP change to explain differences in economic growth. Results also indicate negative and significant random shocks for the OECD countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic structure of local government areas ( LGAs) of the Northern Territory ( NT) are mapped and analysed using economic base theory. Using a three-stage geospatial visualisation we find that: (i) Mining and agriculture are predominantly providing job concentration in a handful of remote LGAs. (ii) Employment growth is derived from public services, with private sector industries contributing almost equally in most LGAs. (iii) NT LGAs exhibit core-periphery characteristics including vulnerable peripheries, often alongside mature mining operations. (iv) However, mature mining is also found alongside diversified sub-cores, providing a model for more vulnerable LGAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At odds with the large literature devoted to the fiscal discipline effects of fiscal rules, only few contributions investigate their impact on public spending. Estimations based on the entropy balancing method reveal the following causal effects: fiscal rules significantly reduce total public spending and public consumption, leave public investment mostly unaffected, and increase the public investment‐to‐public consumption ratio. Moreover, the type of fiscal rule and countries' level of economic development influence the way fiscal rules affect public spending. Lastly, fiscal rules' features are a major driving force of the way governments change public spending in the presence of fiscal rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising water temperatures along the northeastern U.S. continental shelf have resulted in an offshore range shift of the Atlantic surfclam Spisula solidissima to waters still occupied by ocean quahogs Arctica islandica. Fishers presently are prohibited from landing both Atlantic surfclams and ocean quahogs in the same catch, thus limiting fishing to locations where the target species can be sorted on deck. Wind energy development on and around the fishing grounds will further restrict the fishery. A spatially explicit model of the Atlantic surfclam fishery (Spatially Explicit Fishery Economics Simulator) has the ability to simulate the consequences of fishery displacement due to wind energy development in combination with fishery and stock dynamics related to the species' overlap with ocean quahogs. Five sets of simulations were run to determine the effect of varying degrees of species overlap due to Atlantic surfclam range shifts in conjunction with fishing constraints due to wind farm development. Simulations tracked changes in relative stock status, fishery performance, and the economic consequences for the fishery. Compared to a business-as-usual scenario, all scenarios with less-restrictive fishing penalties due to species overlap exhibited higher raw catch numbers but also greater reductions in revenue and increases in cost after the implementation of wind farms. This analysis serves to demonstrate the response of the Atlantic surfclam fishery to combined pressures from competing ocean uses and climate change and emphasizes the potential for economic disruption of fisheries as climate change interacts with the evolution of ocean management on the continental shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work provides data on human capital for the Guarani Jesuit missions during the eighteenth century. Based on the age heaping methodology, the results of a large sample (over 3600 observations) suggest that the knowledge of numerical skills in these missions was exceptional. A comparison with other regions and locations with different institutional frameworks, religious or otherwise, or led by other religious orders, confirms the exceptionality of the Guarani Jesuit missions. The model of these missions, based on productive self‐sufficiency and egalitarian and cohesive social organisation, as well as respect for the pre‐existing culture exemplified by their Guaranisation and adaptation to the Guarani world view and language, could explain their successful educational performance and the intergenerational transmission of human capital beyond the disappearance of the Jesuit missions after 1767. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the direction of causality between public debt and real economic growth in a sample of 20 OECD countries for a period of 40 years starting in 1970. Given the persistence of real growth rates, we estimate canonical cointegrating regressions to allow for the possibility of stochastic cointegrating vectors. We then make inferences about the direction of causality by means of both Granger tests and VAR-based tests that do not depend on whether the series are integrated or cointegrated. We found that while modern welfare states tend to face low real growth following increases in public debt, more traditional welfare states and those with larger governments typically exhibit either causality from low growth to debt accumulation or bidirectional causality. However, the heterogeneity of the results suggests caution when making general statements about the relationship between these variables. In particular, the causal link is intrinsic to each country and it cannot be inferred that higher debt always leads to lower economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I discuss three phenomena which appear important for modelling the impact of uncertainty on growth. The first is international spillovers in uncertainty, which arise even in large countries like the United States and particularly in smaller countries like Australia. Second, that the main channel for uncertainty to impact gross domestic product growth is through investment, which responds much more strongly and rapidly than consumption expenditure. This is possibly because firms are more forward-looking than consumers, so respond more strongly to changes in future expectations of business conditions. Third, I discuss how recently uncertainty has spiked in three waves: the great recession of 2008-2009, the fiscal crises in the United States and Europe from 2010 to 2012 and recently after the Brexit and Trump votes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When considering how to allocate scarce resources for the development of public infrastructure, many countries have a tendency to neglect maintenance in favor of new infrastructure investment projects. We examine the role of maintenance expenditures on output and on the distribution of wealth in a heterogeneous agents model. In our model, maintenance affects the quality of existing infrastructure and thus the flow of services derived from it. Furthermore, maintenance expenditures also affect the depreciation rates of both public infrastructure and private capital. We calibrate our model to Mexico and consider several policies that increase the flow of resources to infrastructure and find that a policy that allocates all additional resources to new investment is dominated by policies that allocate at least some of the additional resources to maintenance. Specifically, focusing all additional resources on maintenance is shown to generate the largest reduction in inequality, while a more balanced policy that increases both investment and maintenance maximizes output growth. ( JEL E00, E62, H54) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that foreign capital liberalization reduces capital misallocation and increases aggregate productivity for affected industries in India. The staggered liberalization of access to foreign capital across disaggregated industries allows us to identify changes in firms' input wedges, overcoming major challenges in the measurement of the effects of changing misallocation. Liberalization increases capital overall. For domestic firms with initially high marginal revenue products of capital (MRPK), liberalization increases revenues by 23%, physical capital by 53%, wage bills by 28%, and reduces MRPK by 33% relative to low MRPK firms. The effects of liberalization are largest in areas with less developed local banking sectors, indicating that inefficiencies in that sector may cause misallocation. Finally, we propose an assumption under which a novel method exploiting natural experiments can be used to bound the effect of changes in misallocation on treated industries' aggregate productivity. These industries' Solow residual increases by 3–16%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates in which way sustainable entrepreneurship can generate institutional change that transforms markets towards sustainability. A transformation of models of economic organization and market structures through sustainable entrepreneurship fosters the path towards sustainability. Institutional change involves sustainable market entrepreneurs as institutional entrepreneurs that operate in an effectual manner in different market transformation phases. Sustainable market entrepreneurs while seeking entrepreneurial opportunities simultaneously shape existing market structures and market conditions in different sustainable market transformation phases thereby creating new opportunities. Accordingly, a framework that explains institutional change prompted by sustainable market entrepreneurs in market transformation phases is developed. In this framework, various interventions which encourage sustainable market entrepreneurs to co‐create with the stakeholders of their choice are strategized. The provided framework enhances the understanding of the versatile role of sustainable market entrepreneurs and potentially the leverage of their actions towards institutional impact over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central motivation to restore ecosystems at a planetary scale has been to reverse degradation and provide multiple environmental benefits, but key global players like governments may be more interested in social outcomes from undertaking restoration, such as job creation. Assessing the job opportunities stemming from ongoing restoration programmes can leverage additional investments for their implementation and support their long‐term maintenance.Here, we aimed to understand and quantify current and potential ecosystem restoration jobs in Brazil, based on a widely distributed online survey performed in 2020 and led by the main restoration networks in the country. We explored the structure, job distribution and outputs of the national restoration supply chain.At the beginning of 2020, 4713 temporary and 3510 permanent jobs were created, nearly 60% of which were generated by organizations specialized in restoration, mainly from the non‐profit (48%) and private (37%) sectors.Restoration jobs were concentrated in organizations working in one (58%) or two (28%) biomes, and the vast majority were in the Atlantic Forest (85%). Similarly, most restoration jobs were concentrated in the southeast region (61%), with one‐third in the state of São Paulo. This geographical distribution was more strongly associated with the states' GDP than with the legal deficit of native vegetation area.Nearly 20% of the restoration jobs were terminated during the COVID‐19 pandemic in 2020.We estimate that restoration activities can generate 0.42 jobs per hectare undergoing restoration, which could potentially create 1.0–2.5 million direct jobs through the implementation of Brazil's target of restoring 12 million hectares.We conclude by reinforcing the value of ecosystem restoration in promoting economic development and job creation, which can be crucial to promote countries' effective engagement in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. We also highlight the critical role of grassroots organizations to maximize restoration opportunities for socioeconomic development during the post‐pandemic economic recovery. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]