Search

Recent studies have drawn attention to a significant weakening trend of the South Asian monsoon circulation and an associated decrease in regional rainfall during the last few decades. While surface temperatures over the region have steadily risen during this period, most of the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global climate models have dificulties in capturing the observed decrease of monsoon precipitation, thus limiting our understanding of the regional land surface response to monsoonal changes. This problem is investigated by performing two long-term simulation experiments, with and without anthropogenic forcing, using a variable resolution global climate model having high-resolution zooming over the South Asian region. The present results indicate that anthropogenic effects have considerably influenced the recent weakening of the monsoon circulation and decline of precipitation. It is seen that the simulated increase of surface temperature over the Indian region during the post-1950s is accompanied by a significant decrease of monsoon precipitation and soil moisture. Our analysis further reveals that the land surface response to decrease of soil moisture is associated with significant reduction in evapotranspiration over the Indian land region. A future projection, based on the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using the same high-resolution model indicates the possibility for detecting the summer-time soil drying signal over the Indian region during the 21st century, in response to climate change. While these monsoon hydrological changes have profound socioeconomic implications, the robustness of the high-resolution simulations provides deeper insights and enhances our understanding of the regional land surface response to the changing South Asian monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To examine seasonal and size-dependent variations in the phytoplankton growth and microzooplankton grazing in oligotrophic tropical waters under the influence of seasonal reversing monsoon, dilution experiments were conducted during the summer 2009 (21 May to 9 June) and winter 2010 (9 to 18 November) in the southern South China Sea (SSCS). The results showed that environmental variables, phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton growth rate (μ), microzooplankton grazing rate (m), and correlationship (coupling) between the μ and m, but the microzooplankton grazing impact on phytoplankton (m/μ) significantly varied between the two seasons. Higher relative preference index (RPI) for and m on the larger-sized (> 3 µm) phytoplankton than picophytoplankton (< 3 µm), indicating significant size-selective grazing by microzooplankton on the larger-sized phytoplankton, were also observed. The μ and m were significantly correlated with salinity and dissolved inorganic nutrients, which indicated that salient seasonal variations in the phytoplankton growth and microzooplankton grazing in the SSCS were closely related to the environmental variables under the influence of the East Asian monsoon. We propose that intermittent arrivals of the northeast winter monsoon could lead to the low μ and m, and the decoupling between the μ and m in the SSCS, through influencing nutrient supply to the surface water, and inducing surface seawater salinity decrease. The low m/μ(< 50% on average) indicates low remineralization of organic matter mediated by microzooplankton and the increased importance of the phytoplankton-mesozooplankton grazing pathway, and thus probably accounts for part of the high vertical biogenic particle fluxes in the prevailing periods of the monsoons in the SSCS. The size-selective grazing suggests that microzooplankton grazing contributes to the pico-phytoplankton dominance in the oligotrophic tropical waters such as that of the SSCS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the evolution of the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array (GTMBA) over the past decade since the last comprehensive and coordinated overview of the Pacific-Atlantic-Indian Ocean system in 2010. GTMBA provides sustained and systematic observations in real time for weather and climate research, forecasting, and assessments. It is maintained through multi-national consortia that support the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array and the Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) in the Pacific, the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA), and the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) in the Indian Ocean. Phenomena of interest span a wide range of weather and climate timescales, including tropical cyclones, the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation, the seasonal cycle, monsoon circulations, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, climate variations on decadal timescales, and trends related to climate change. We review recent scientific advances enabled by GTMBA, along with array design changes in response to new scientific imperatives and operational exigencies, and conclude with a discussion of future directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) heralds the establishment of the large-scale East Asian summer monsoon and the western North Pacific summer monsoon, as well as the beginning of the major rainy season. The occurrence of an early or late SCSSM onset is an important indicator for the summertime climate anomalies over East and Southeast Asia. Therefore, the onset of the SCSSM has received extensive research attention, and has been one of the key foci of monsoon research in recent decades. This paper reviews the multi-scale climate variations (from interdecadal to synoptic scales) and mechanisms of the SCSSM onset, with special attention paid to the progress in the past five years. On the interdecadal timescale, the SCSSM onset underwent a significant advancement in the mid-to-late 1990s, which may have been related to the background condition of the Pacific Ocean. On the interannual timescale, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered to be the most critical factor controlling the variability of the SCSSM onset. However, the linkage between ENSO and the SCSSM onset has become much weaker and insignificant in recent years. The intraseasonal oscillations (including the 30–60-day oscillation and quasi-biweekly oscillation) are important modulators of the SCSSM onset. The transition from an inactive phase to an active phase may be more worthy of attention than the phase itself. There appear to be close interactions between the SCSSM onset and synoptic-scale systems like tropical cyclones (TCs). TCs are important triggers for the SCSSM onset, while in return the SCSSM onset provides a favorable background condition for the formation and development of TCs. In addition, this paper also reviews a series of recent works on the withdrawal of the SCSSM. Finally, to close the paper, some important scientific issues worthy of further investigation are put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfall over the Indian region, governed majorly by the monsoonal flow, is a point of research in the perspective of climate change. In this paper, we compute the change points in the rainfall series at every grid of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) daily gridded rainfall data for a period of 120 years (1901 to 2020). The map shows clearly demarcated regions indicating different zones, where the rainfall statistics have altered at different periods. It is observed that in a major part of central India, the shift in rainfall intensity is mainly associated with the time frame 1955–1965; in the Indo-Gangetic plain, the changes are found to be more recent (1990), while the latest changes (post 2000) are observed particularly for North Eastern region and some parts along the East Indian coast. The changeover years are significant at a 95% confidence level for most part of the Indian landmass. The causes may be surmised due to moisture transport from the Arabian Sea (Central India), the presence of aerosol (Gangetic Plain), and the possible revival of monsoon due to land–ocean gradient (Eastern coast and North East India). This is the first-ever study which provides a comprehensive daily rainfall change point map over India using 120 years of gridded station data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth history of the Tibetan Plateau provides a valuable natural laboratory to understand tectonic processes of the India–Asia collision and their impact on and interactions with Asian and global climate change. However, both Tibetan Plateau growth and Asian paleoenvironments are generally poorly documented in pre-Pliocene times and reflect limited temporal coverage for different parts of the plateau. In this paper, the 238 m thick Cenozoic sediments in the Hongzhuang section of the Xunhua Basin were tested and analyzed via paleomagnetic and environmental magnetic methods. The formation age was determined, and the evolution history of the regional climate environment was analyzed. The magnetostratigraphy study shows that the sediments record a continuous sequence of geomagnetic polarity changes from C5ACn to C10r, which spans an interval of approximately 30~14.3 Ma from the early Oligocene to the middle Miocene. The magnetic susceptibility of the Hongzhuang section is basically similar to the deep-sea oxygen isotope fluctuation, indicating that the monsoon climate change indicated by the magnetic susceptibility is affected by global temperature. It is worth noting that at ~27 Ma and ~15 Ma, there is a negative correlation between magnetic susceptibility and deep-sea oxygen isotope, and magnetic susceptibility lags behind the increase in deep-sea oxygen isotope. Combined with the change in the sedimentary rate curve, we explain the asynchrony between the magnetic susceptibility and the deep-sea oxygen isotope around ~27 Ma and ~15 Ma. As the uplift of the plateau leads to the enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon, the soil formation in the region is strengthened, resulting in an increase in magnetic susceptibility. At the same time, the rapid uplift of the plateau caused the erosion of the surrounding mountains to strengthen, and the input of near-source materials may promote the increase in magnetic susceptibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of climate change and its impact on agriculture, the paper analyses the trend of monsoon rainfall and its correlation with crop yield in Andhra Pradesh. The summer monsoon is the main rainy source of water for the state of Andhra Pradesh. The Kharif crops depend on the southwest monsoon rains to the extent that its adverse variability may lead to water stress and agrarian crisis. It has been observed from the study that in recent years the contribution of monsoon rainfall during September is increasing, and any harvest during the month is correspondingly affected, leading to a decline in the crop yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Yellow Sea, located at the intersection of the Eurasian continent and North Pacific Ocean at mid-latitudes, is a sensitive area subjected to the joint actions of the ocean, land, and monsoons. On its southern shore, loess and paleosol sedimentary sequences were widely developed during the last interglacial period, which is of great significance for revealing patterns of climate change and dynamic conditions. In this paper, we focus on the Zhifu section (ZFS) on Zhifu Island within the Shandong Province of China. The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating method was used to construct our chronological framework. Grain size and its endmember (EM) components were then analyzed; EM1 is a clay component EM, which represents a weak dynamic environment and strong weathering pedogenesis, while EM2 and EM3 are silt and very fine sand component EMs, respectively, representing a strong dynamic environment and weak weathering pedogenesis. Maximum EM1, mean grain size, clay content, and pH values occur in the paleosol layers (ZF4, ZF6, and ZF8), with minimum values in the loess layers (ZF5 and ZF7); EM3 values show the opposite pattern. This indicates that the ZF4, ZF6, and ZF8 layers represent warm and humid environments with abundant precipitation, where the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was enhanced, corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a, 5c, and 5e. In contrast, ZF5 and ZF7 represent sub-warm and humid environments with less precipitation, where the EASM was weakened, corresponding to MIS 5b and 5d. Among these stages, MIS5e is the warmest and wettest. These climatic events reveal the pattern of climate fluctuation over a ten-thousand-year timescale; they are synchronous with climate changes recorded in other geological repositories, such as cave stalagmites in southern China and sea-level fluctuations in the Yellow-Bohai Sea, which result from changes in global solar radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian monsoon influences the lives of more than a third of the world's population, and understanding its spatial and temporal variability is fundamental to sustainable development. The complex dynamics of this climatic system are therefore of broad scientific and societal interest. In this virtual special issue (VSI), we present 19 papers dealing with the Asian monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21 kyr BP), with a focus on understanding variability and forcing mechanisms. Findings use recently developed quantitative reconstructions combined with numerical simulations, and present novel insights as follows: (1) analyses of comprehensive datasets of pollen, diatom, brGDGTs, oxygen and hydrogen isotopes and frequency magnetic susceptibility, as well as an innovative algorithm model for the lake energy-water balance, improve the reliability of quantitative reconstructions of Asian monsoon climate variations; (2) studies of quantitative climate parameters in central East Asia show that mean annual temperature (MAT) was ∼5 °C (or ∼ 7.9 °C using brGDGTs) lower during the LGM, ∼1.5 °C (±41% using brGDGTs) higher around the Holocene thermal optimum (HO) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) varied between 30 and 150% with marked seasonality during 8–5 ka; (3) dynamical downscaling palaeoclimatic simulations improve the accuracy of past monsoon variations, revealing strong variability in monsoon precipitation across the LGM and HO. The holistic study of Asian monsoon variations at orbital to centennial timescales in these VSI papers presents reliable observations of monsoon variability and its driving mechanisms, providing high-resolution quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions that fill existing gaps in spatial coverage, as well as offering an improved understanding, thorough numerical simulation, of coupled sea-level change and vegetation feedbacks. • An introduction to Asian monsoon variations over the past 21 ka. • Transfer functions, sedimentary records and numerical simulation are developed for studying past Asian monsoon. • Averaged MAP in East Asia varied between 30-150 % over the past 21 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability and dynamics of the Asian monsoon (AM, hereafter indicates both of the summer and winter monsoons.) at orbital and millennial timescales has attracted wide interest. Chinese loess deposits, covering an area of ~500 × 103 km2 and with a thickness of several tens to more than three hundred meters, is an ideal continental archive to reconstruct AM variations during the Quaternary epoch. Over the past thirty years, since the earliest paper published in an international journal that linked the Asian monsoon and Chinese loess deposits, many studies have been undertaken focusing on this research topic. These results have greatly deepened our understanding of the variations of the AM climate and their driving mechanisms during the past ~2.6 Myr. In this paper, we emphasize recent progress on the AM variability and dynamics revealed by Chinese loess records; in particular, we discuss the reliability and precision of the timescale and the monsoon proxy indicators for the loess-paleosol sequences, which are two fundamental aspects for understanding AM behavior. We analyze what we know and discuss what we do not know about the AM. We refine the timescale for the typical loess-paleosol sequence in the central Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), which can be used as a new timescale to study palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental changes in the monsoonal Asia. We conclude that low-latitude insolation changes induced by precession, and global ice volume, temperature at high-latitudes, as well as sea-level changes forced variations of the AM at orbital time scales. High-latitude cooling events and low-latitude hydroclimate process at millennial time scales, such as climate changes associated with Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in Northern Atlantic and Greenland, have also modulated AM variability. We suggest that high-latitude forcing of AM variations occurs through ocean and atmospheric circulation linkages, although the roles of atmospheric CO 2 , ocean and vegetation feedbacks need further investigation. In future study, high-resolution independent dating, novel proxy indices and transient numerical simulations are still basic tools to understand the loess deposition and AM variations that require considerably more work. Issues such as reliable spatial comparison and regional linkages of records (dependent on precise and accurate numerical chronologies), and quantitative reconstruction of the AM variations, should be given priority in the study the past climate change in Asia, and low-latitude hydroclimate process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of future West African monsoon (WAM) precipitation change in response to increasing greenhouse gases are uncertain, and an improved understanding of the drivers of WAM precipitation change is needed to help aid model development and better inform adaptation policies in the region. This paper addresses one of those drivers, the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 (i.e., the impact of increased CO2 in the absence of SST warming and changes in plant physiology). An atmosphere-only model is used to examine both the equilibrium response and the evolution of the change over the days following the instantaneous CO2 increase. In response to the direct radiative effect, WAM precipitation increases due to a weakening of the shallow meridional circulation over North Africa, advecting less dry air into the convective column associated with the monsoon. Changes in the shallow circulation are associated with atmospheric and surface warming patterns over North Africa. A large-scale atmospheric warming pattern, whereby North Africa warms more than the monsoon region, leads to a northward shift in the Saharan heat low. In response to increased precipitation in the Sahel, local soil moisture feedbacks play a key role in determining the low-level circulation change and the location of the intertropical discontinuity. The large-scale warming patterns over North Africa result from differing levels of constraint applied by convective quasi-equilibrium. While this constraint acts strongly in the equatorial WAM region, preventing the region from warming in response to the direct radiative effect, North Africa is not strongly constrained and is therefore able to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a serious and complex crisis that impacts humankind in different ways. It affects the availability of water resources, especially in the tropical regions of South Asia to a greater extent. However, the impact of climate change on water resources in Sri Lanka has been the least explored. Noteworthy, this is the first study in Sri Lanka that attempts to evaluate the impact of climate change in streamflow in a watershed located in the southern coastal belt of the island. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the climate change impact on streamflow of the Upper Nilwala River Basin (UNRB), Sri Lanka. In this study, the bias-corrected rainfall data from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were fed into the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model to obtain future streamflow. Bias correction of future rainfall data in the Nilwala River Basin (NRB) was conducted using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM). Future precipitation was projected under three timelines: 2020s (2021–2047), 2050s (2048–2073), and 2080s (2074–2099) and was compared against the baseline period from 1980 to 2020. The ensemble mean annual precipitation in the NRB is expected to rise by 3.63%, 16.49%, and 12.82% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, and 4.26%, 8.94%, and 18.04% under RCP 8.5 emission scenario during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The future annual streamflow of the UNRB is projected to increase by 59.30% and 65.79% under the ensemble RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, when compared to the baseline scenario. In addition, the seasonal flows are also expected to increase for both RCPs for all seasons with an exception during the southwest monsoon season in the 2015–2042 period under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In general, the results of the present study demonstrate that climate and streamflow of the NRB are expected to experience changes when compared to current climatic conditions. The results of the present study will be of major importance for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset the negative impacts of future changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies on the amplitude of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) changes mainly focused on northern China (represented by the Loess Plateau). However, a rare investigation centered on the subtropical zone of southern China, where the important route for EASM moved northward or southward, especially addressing a lack of the research on mammals. The Ailuropoda-Stegodon fauna is a representative mammal fauna in southern China since the late Pleistocene. It indicates the southern mid-subtropical-tropical forest environment with tropical climate characteristics, and its southward or northward movements in the subtropical zone imply the changes of EASM intensity. Based on previous research, combined with the species characteristics and distribution range of the Ailuropoda-Stegodon fauna with tropical animals during the marine isotope stage 5 (MIS5), MIS3, MIS2, and MIS1 Megathermal periods, this paper mainly investigates its evolution and the fluctuations of EASM. The conclusions include: (1) The distribution geometric centers in the MIS5, MIS3, MIS2, and MIS1 Megathermal periods are (26°14′N, 111°22′E), (24°35′N, 107°30′E), (22°48′N, 112°01′E), and (26°19′N, 112°25′E), respectively. (2) Compared with the MIS5 period, the EASM of the MIS3 and MIS2 moved 180 km and 380 km southwards, and that of the MIS1 Megathermal period moved about 10 km northwards. The EASM movement indicated by the fauna migration happened synchronous with the climate records of stalagmites in subtropical China, the sporopollen from eastern China, and oxygen isotopes from Sulu Sea. They also correspond to the peaks and valleys of the total solar radiation at 35°N in the winter half-year. This suggests that the migrations of the Ailuropoda-Stegodon fauna are consistent with the changes of the global climate, and the driving force is mainly from the changes of total solar radiation at 35°N in the winter half-year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A declining trend in Indian summer monsoon precipitation (ISMP) in the latter half of the 20th century is a scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issue. Heavy aerosol loading over India is one of the key factors in modulating the ISMP. Using the state-of-the-state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, ECHAM6-HAMMOZ, the impacts of South Asian anthropogenic sulfate aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon precipitation were investigated against: (1) 2010 La Niña (excess monsoon), (2) 2015 El Niño (deficit monsoon) in comparison to (3) normal monsoon 2016. Sensitivity simulations were designed with 48% enhancement in South Asian SO 2 emissions based on a trend estimated from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations during 2006–2017. The model simulations showed that sulfate aerosols reduce ISMP by 27.5%–43.3 %, while simulations without sulfate loading enhanced ISMP by 23% in 2010 La Niña and reduction by 35% in 2015 El Niño. This paper reports that sulfate aerosols loading over India reduce precipitation by aerosol-induced direct and indirect effects by inducing atmospheric cooling, weakening in the convection, and reduction in moisture transport to Indian landmass. This paper emphasizes the necessity of alternate use of energy to reduce sulfate aerosol emissions to solve water issues in South Asia. [Display omitted] • Sulfate emission reduces Indian summer monsoon precipitation through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. • Over 27% of the summer monsoon rainfall deficit in a normal year are linked to Asian anthropogenic sulfate emissions. • Sulfate-induced rainfall reduction is the maximum for La Niña year. • SO 2 loading increases atmospheric stability and weakens moisture transport to India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to recent climate changes and monsoon variability, the amount, pattern, and intensity of rainfall are significantly changing in many Asian countries. This paper attempts to study the annual and seasonal rainfall patterns and their variability, and the occurrence of droughts. Monthly rainfall data have been collected from the Department of Meteorology, Colombo, from 1871-2020 for Batticaloa station. The Standard Deviation, Coefficient of Variation least-square trend had computed for annual and seasonal rainfall to study the rainfall variability as whole and different epochs. To study the drought scenario Standardized Precipitation Index had computed, and then the drought was categorized based on the SPI criteria, and the drought severity had distinguished. Spatial rainfall distribution maps had prepared using Arc GIS 10.4 software. The Standard Deviation and the Coefficient of annual rainfall variation are 423.9 and 24.8%, respectively. The epochal variability results reveal that the variability of rainfall is higher in 1961-1990 (CV: 28.9%), which indicates the low dependability, while variability is lower in the epochs of 1931-1960 (CV: 17.7%) and 1871-1900 and (19.6%) respectively. The long-term rainfall trend (1871-2020) results reveal the increasing trend and its r² = 0.0271. However, only the epoch 1961-1990 shows a downward trend with r² = 0.2398. The rainfall anomaly results reveal the extreme drought had occurred in 1968 and 1889. The severe droughts had occurred in 1998, 1983, 1981, 1980, 1909, and 1890. Out of 150 years of data periods, 25 years had been identified as drought years. The probability of drought occurrence is P = 0.167. Terefore once in five to six years, drought could have occurred. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the long-term variability of frequency of atmospheric blockings over Western Siberia in 1948-2015 based on the data of three reanalysis projects. We revealed a decreasing blocking frequency for eight of twelve months. However, since the estimated trends of blocking frequency are small comparing to the significant amplitude of interannual variations, we proposed to divide the entire studied period into several quasi-decadal intervals that differ both in the amplitude of interannual fluctuations of blocking frequency and in trends. The effect of Western Siberian blockings imposed on synoptic and climatic variability of meteorological parameters in Asia was studied. The study demonstrated that in summer teleconnection patterns in temperature and precipitation fields are of the close sign-alternating structure; this indirectly indicates that in Western Siberia the blocking is a part of a large-scale wave mechanism. Like the Ural blockings, the blockings occurring over Western Siberia affect meteorological characteristics within the East Asian monsoon area. In winter time they contribute to lower surface temperature and decreased precipitation in Southeast Asia. In summer during blocking events over Western Siberia, precipitation increases in the East Asian monsoon area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper appraises the association of lightning flash count (FC) with rainfall using the satellite-borne Lightning Imaging Sensor's (LIS) data along with gridded rainfall data (0.5 × 0.5) for Indian summer monsoon seasons over 10 years (2001-2010). During strong El Nino years, 2002 and 2009, FCs were greater in magnitude by about 26.5 % and 37 %, than the long-term average, respectively, while during weak El Nino year (2004), it was more by 8 %. During the same years, the rainfall was deficient by about 10 % than the long-term average. Similarly, a rise in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over its average value (by about 15 % and 20 %) reduces the ratio of rainfall to FC (RLR) by 41 % and 44 % for strong El Nino years 2002 and 2009, respectively, and for weak El Nino year (2004), a 6.5 % rise in AOD lowers the RLR by 20 %. Bowen ratio more by 11 % and 17 % of its average value reduces the RLR by 41 % and 44 % for strong El Nino years 2002 and 2009, respectively, and, also, Bowen ratio higher by 8 % for 2004 declines RLR by 20 %. On the other hand, Bowen ratio less by 9 % and 6 % raises the RLR by 19 % and 56 % for moderate La Nina year (2007) and strong La Nina year (2010), respectively. Results for the daily rainfall, AOD and Bowen ratio over Indian regions, are discussed for strong El Nino and La Nina years. Correlations of FC with AOD and Bowen ratio of 0.66 and 0.71, respectively, while, that of FC with ONI of 0.56 indicates numerous (fewer) break days during El Nino (La Nina) years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the Plio-Pleistocene interval a strong linkage exists between northern African climate changes and the supply of dust over the surrounding oceans and continental runoff towards the Mediterranean Sea. Both these signatures in the sedimentary record are determined by orbital cycles influencing glacial variability on the one hand and northern African monsoon intensity on the other hand. In this paper, we use the intermediate-complexity model CLIMBER-2 to simulate African climate during the Plio-Pleistocene between 3.2 and 2.3 million years ago (Ma) and compare our simulations with existing and new climate reconstructions. The CLIMBER-2 model is externally forced with atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, ice sheet topography, and orbital variations, all of which strongly influence climate during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. Our simulations indicate that the records of northern Africa climate oscillate in phase with climatic precession. For the Earth's obliquity cycle, the time lag between the 41 000-year component in insolation forcing and the climatic response increased after inception of Northern Hemisphere (NH) glaciation around 2.8 Ma. To test the outcome of our simulations, we have put emphasis on the comparison between the simulated runoff of grid boxes encompassing the Sahara desert and the Sahel region and the sedimentary records of marine sediment cores from ODP Site 659 (Atlantic Ocean) and ODP Site 967 (Mediterranean). In this study we will show for the first time an extended Ti/Al record of Site 967 down to 3.2 Ma. This record strongly correlates with runoff in the Sahara and Sahel regions, whereas correlation with the dust record of Site 659 is moderate and slightly improves after NH ice sheet inception. We investigated the transient variability of the individual and combined contributions of the Sahel and Sahara regions and found significant transient behaviour overlapping the inception of NH ice sheets (2.8 Ma) and the Plio-Pleistocene transition (2.6 Ma). Prior to 2.8 Ma, a larger contribution from the Sahara region is required to explain the variability of Mediterranean dust input. After this transition, we found that a more equal contribution of the two regions is required, representing an increased influence of Sahel runoff and wet periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the extent to which a disparity exists in post‐disaster reporting of global North and global South events in UK newspapers, how that disparity manifests itself, and the consequences of that disparity. A critical discourse analysis was used involving a documentary analysis of UK national newspaper articles published on two disasters, Hurricane Harvey in the USA and the South Asian monsoon, in 2017. A reporting bias was found in favour of the number of articles published, the length of those articles, and duration of coverage for the global North disaster. Language used and imagery evoked also differed considerably. Whereas UK media coverage of the global North focused on shared cultural, economic and political values, coverage of the global South emphasised difference, reinforcing an "us" and "them" mentality based on the poor alignment of national/political interests. Such disparities are deeply problematic for informing the public about global matters of concern, creating empathy between nations, and building support for collective action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The inner shelf sediments of the East China Sea (ECS) preserve valuable information regarding climatic changes on land through detrital material discharged from large rivers, particularly the Yangtze River. In this paper, we examine the provenance changes of fine-grained detrital quartz preserved in the sediment of the MD06-3040 core retrieved from the mud belt on the inner shelf of the ECS during the last 6 kyrs. The provenance of the fine silt fraction (4–16 μm) of the sediments, which is considered to represent the suspended particulate matter (SPM) from the Yangtze River, is estimated based on the electron spin resonance (ESR) signal intensity and crystallinity index (CI) of quartz. By comparing the ESR signal intensity and CI of quartz in the fine silt fraction of sediments to those from different parts of tributaries in the modern Yangtze River drainage, we can discriminate the SPM sourced from the northwestern and southeastern tributaries of the Yangtze River. Shifts in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) front are monitored by changes in the main precipitation areas which are manifested as changes in source rock ages and types implied from the ESR signal intensity and CI of quartz in the fine silt fraction of the studied sediments discharged from the Yangtze River. Temporal changes in provenance of the fine silt fraction through time suggest that shifts in the main location of EASM precipitation (most likely representing the EASM front) occurred at a multi-centennial-to-millennial scale with the deepest northwestward penetration of the EASM precipitation front (an enhanced EASM) occurring during the period 3.5–2.0 kyr BP and a southeastward retreat (a weak EASM) occurring during the periods 6.0–4.1 and 2.0–0 kyr BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The systematic bias of the estimated average temperature using daily Tmax and Tmin records relative to the standard average temperature of four time-equidistant observations and its effect on the estimated trend of long-term temperature change have not been well understood. This paper attempts to evaluate the systematic bias across mainland China using the daily data of national observational stations. The results revealed that the positive bias of annual mean temperature was large, reaching 0.58°C nationally on average; regional average bias was lowest in the northwest arid region and highest in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau; the bias was low in spring and summer and high in autumn and winter, reaching its lowest point in mid- and late May and highest point in early November. Furthermore, the bias showed a significant upward trend in the past 50 years, with a rising rate of 0.021°C (10 yr)−1, accounting for about 12% of the overall warming as estimated from the data of the observational network; the largest positive trend bias was found in the northwest arid region, while the east monsoon region experienced the smallest change; the most remarkable increase of the bias occurred after early 1990s. These results indicate that the customarily applied method to calculate daily and monthly mean temperature using Tmax and Tmin significantly overestimates the climatological mean and the long-term trend of surface air temperature in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper contributes to an enhanced understanding of present climatic conditions, observed climate trends and regional climate vulnerability of the Bhutan Himalayas. Bhutan's complex, often high-altitude terrain and the severe impact of the Indian summer monsoon leads to a strong exposure of the countries' key economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, hydropower generation and tourism) to climatic changes. Climate change also threatens Bhutan's vast biodiversity and increases the likelihood of natural hazards (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts and forest fires). A better understanding of Bhutan's climate and its variability, as well as observed and possible climate impacts, will help in improving the handling of regional social, economic and ecologic challenges not limited to the Himalayas. Only a few climatological studies exist for the eastern Himalayas. They mainly focus on adaptation to immediate threats by glacier lake outbursts. In contrast, this paper (1) investigates the average spatial and inner-annual diversity of the air temperature regime of Bhutan, based on local meteorological observations, (2) discusses past temperature variability, based on global datasets, and (3) relates effects of observed warming to water availability, hydropower development, natural hazards, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, human health and tourism in the Bhutan Himalayas. Results indicate a large spatial and temporal temperature variability within Bhutan and considerably increasing temperatures especially over recent decades. Implications of regional climatic changes on various socio-economic sectors and possible adaptation efforts are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions among different large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupled modes are exceptionally complex. Diverse scale modes interact through oceanic circulations, ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes, and atmospheric bridges, thus affecting both the global weather system and long-term climate changes. This paper presents a review of the interaction mechanisms among six ocean-atmosphere coupled modes (ENSO, PDO, IOD, AO, NAO, and AMO) and their impacts on the South and East Asian Monsoon. Identifying the changes in the dynamics and energy budgets caused by the spatial structure evolution and amplitude change of various ocean-atmosphere coupled modes can yield a better understanding of their forcing effects on climate change. These effects are not only restricted to surrounding regions, but also significant interaction is found between the distant equator and the polar region. Interactions between various ocean-atmosphere coupled modes occur through Rossby wave activity, westerly airflow, cyclone circulation, and pressure gradients. However, because of the complexity of the relationship between multiple factors, it remains difficult to clarify the driving mechanism of each coupled mode change. More importantly, predictions based on long-term observation data are still a weak link in climate change research. This review summarizes the current knowledge on the interaction among the six ocean-atmosphere coupled modes, thus uncovering their impacts on South and East Asian Monsoon from a global perspective. • None of the ocean-atmosphere coupled modes exist independently. • Atmospheric bridges and ocean heat transfer exert an important impact on climate. • Circulation anomalies are triggered through waveguide in the mid-latitude region. • The equatorial region promotes vortex to affect the middle–high latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has been associated with a growing list of concerns in society today, often leaving more questions than answers. Thus, it is no surprise that questions are forming regarding the effects of climate change on global security, and more specifically, terrorism. India is the ideal case study for investigating the relationship between climate change and extremism, with average temperatures in the country reaching record highs as well as having 9,096 terrorist incidents occur during our 20-year study period between 1998 and 2017. Using daily temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the equator data from the National Climatic Data Center and terrorist incidents from the Global Terrorism Data base (GTD), this study assesses the spatial relationship between these factors through geospatial analyses. Suitability analyses indicate that all the climatological variables tested—temperature, precipitation, and elevation—relate to shifting patterns of terrorist activity. We also found that beyond intensity, seasons result in a shifting of patterns in terrorist behavior to other locales. Implications for the global community and for India specifically are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable attribution of Asian summer monsoon variations to aerosol forcing is critical to reducing uncertainties in future projections of regional water availability, which is of utmost importance for risk management and adaptation planning in this densely populated region. Yet, simulating the monsoon remains a challenge for climate models that suffer from long-standing biases, undermining their reliability in attributing anthropogenically forced changes. We analyze a suite of climate model experiments to identify a link between model biases and monsoon responses to Asian aerosols and associated physical mechanisms, including the role of large-scale circulation changes. The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model's ability to simulate the spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon winds, clouds, and precipitation across Asia, which modulates the magnitude and efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, an important component of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response. We found a striking contrast between the early- and late-summer aerosol-driven changes ascribable to opposite signs and seasonal evolution of the biases in the two regions. A realistic simulation of the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is crucial to realize the full extent of the aerosol impact over Asia. These findings provide important implications for better understanding and constraining the diversity and inconsistencies of model responses to aerosol changes over Asia in historical simulations and future projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change has intensified the water cycle, leading to frequent extreme precipitation events, posing a significant threat to railway infrastructure and safety operations. Based on the analysis of past and future precipitation changes in China, this study investigates the impact of climate change on railway safety operations. The study reveals the following findings: (1) Under the influence of the intensified East Asian summer monsoon and the northward shift of the subtropical high during the 2017-2021 compared to the 2012-2016, precipitation has significantly decreased (120 mm) in the regions south of the Yangtze River and South China, while it has increased (60 mm) in the regions from the eastern of Northwest China to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River; The operational precipitation risk has decreased for Urumqi, Lanzhou, Qinghai-Tibet Group, Xi'an, and Wuhan railway bureaus (abbreviated as Bureau), while it has increased for Nanchang, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang Bureaus. Particularly noteworthy is that despite a decrease in total annual precipitation for Nanchang bureau (15.3 mm/a), the frequency of intense precipitation events has increased, leading to an increased operational precipitation risk. (2) During the 21[sup st] century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that most of the China will experience an increasing trend in precipitation, with significant increases in precipitation observed in the regions south of the Yangtze Rive, South and Southwest China. The higher the greenhouse gas emissions, the more pronounced the increasing trend in precipitation. (3) Compared to the 20[sup th] century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that the total annual precipitation hours, railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have all increased on a national scale during the 21[sup st] century. The operational precipitation risk for railways has also increased. The higher the alert level for railway precipitation (precipitation < inspection < speed limit < closure), the higher the proportion of risk hours compared to the 20th century. By the late 21[sup st] century, the railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have increased by 175%, 463%, and 647%, respectively, compared to the 20[sup th] century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indo-Pacific, a vast biogeographic of Earth, is influenced by both the Indian and East Asian monsoons. Despite its geographical importance, this region has been less studied compared to East Asia and India. Here, we present speleothem records from southern Thailand that cover the last 1500 years, including a hiatus during the Little Ice Age, providing insights into the interactions among climate dynamics, human influences, and ecological responses to climate change. Notably, our records lack the characteristic cold and warm periods observed in other regions, such as the Dark Ages Cold Period and Medieval Warm Period, which may reflect the complexity of the tropical climate system or the region's unique topography. The analysis reveals a link between ENSO multi-decadal variability and hydroclimate conditions in southern Thailand, as evidenced by speleothem δ18O. Furthermore, a comparison between speleothem δ13C and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates significant vegetation changes in the last three decades, corresponding with increased atmospheric CO2 levels and expansion of agricultural land due to human activities during the Current Warm Period. Additionally, our study suggests that an abrupt increase in sea surface temperatures may enhance vegetation growth in the Indo-Pacific by influencing atmospheric circulation and increasing precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vertical transition zone of mountain vegetation is characterized by high species diversity, and the width of the transition zone may serve as an indirect indicator of climate change. However, research into the differential characteristics of vegetation response to climate changes at the boundary of vertical transition zones has been limited. This study employs MODIS and climate data spanning 2001 to 2018 to investigate spatiotemporal trends in precipitation (PRE), temperature (TMP), radiation (RAD), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across nine montane deciduous broad-leaved forests in the eastern monsoon region of China. It explores the time-lag and -accumulation effects of climatic variables on NDVI, quantifying their relative contributions to both its short-term and interannual variations. Results show that, notably, with the Qinling-Daba Mountains as a demarcation, northern regions exhibit significant increases in RAD (0.874–2.047 W m−2/a), whereas southern regions demonstrate notable rises in TMP (0.59–0.73 °C/10a). Areas of lower annual PRE correspond to the most rapid increases in annual average NDVI (5.045 × 10−3/a). NDVI's lag time and cumulative duration responses to TMP are the shortest (0 and 2~4 periods), while its correlation with RAD is the strongest (0.815–0.975), generally decreasing from higher to lower latitudes. TMP significantly affects NDVI variations, impacting both short-term and interannual trends, with PRE driving short-term fluctuations and RAD dictating long-term shifts. This research provides critical data and a theoretical framework that enhances our understanding of how regional vegetation's vertical zonation responds to climate change, thereby making a substantial contribution to the study of mountain vegetation's diverse adaptability to climatic variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010–2039), mid-(2040–2069) and far-(2070–2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea–Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea–Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea–Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea–Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea–Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper scrutinizes the zonal oscillation of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) via diagnosing its two extreme phases, which are defined by the top 10% strongest (positive phase) and the weakest (negative phase) WNPSH index (WNPSHI) days during summers in 1979–2016. Key findings include the following: a tripole pattern consisting of intensified (weakened) precipitation over the Maritime Continent and the East Asian summer monsoon regions, and suppressed (strengthened) precipitation over the western North Pacific summer monsoon region during positive (negative) WNPSH phases; a westward movement of WNPSH-induced precipitation anomalies that subsequently affects eastern China, Japan, and the Korean Peninsula at different time lags; an OLR–vorticity pattern explained by atmospheric responses to thermal sources is suggested to drive the oscillation; and the competitive interaction of local air–sea feedbacks, especially during the positive phase. In addition, moderate-to-strong positive correlations between the WNPSHI and the Niño-3.4 index are found on 1–2-, 2–3-, and 3–6-yr time scales; both exhibit decadal shifts to a higher-frequency mode, suggesting the intensification of both the zonal WNPSH oscillation and the ENSO under the changing climate and their close interdecadal association. A nonlinear quasi-biennial WNPSH–ENSO relationship is identified: the positive (negative) WNPSH phase sometimes occurs during 1) a decaying El Niño (La Niña) in the preceding summer/autumn, and/or 2) a developing La Niña (El Niño) in the current summer/autumn. A full ENSO transition from moderate-to-strong El Niño to La Niña is often seen during the positive phase, offering potential in predicting ENSO events and extreme WNPSH phases and thereby the summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on our previous study (Yu et al., Clim Dyn 49:1139-1156, 2017), this paper further investigates the interdecadal change in the relationship between the Kuroshio Extension (KE; 27°-37°N, 140°-158°E) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in the late 1980s. The summer KE sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) show a significant positive relationship with the EASM over the period 1968-1987 (P1), but a significant negative connection with the EASM between 1991 and 2010 (P2). This interdecadal change in the KE-EASM relationship can be interpreted by considering the difference in the relationships of summer KE SSTAs with the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) and western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) during the two periods. During P1, summertime KE SST warming is significantly related to the strengthened EASWJ and WNPSH, but it has close relationships with the weakened and northward-moving EASWJ and WNPSH during P2. These anomalous EASWJ and WNPSH associated with the summertime KE SST warming in P1 (P2) then favors increased (reduced) rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley that corresponds to a strong (weak) EASM, thereby leading to the significant positive (negative) KE-EASM relationship during this period. This change in the relationships of summer KE SSTAs with the EASWJ and WNPSH may be attributed to the increased KE SST variability associated with an enhanced Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in summer during P2, which is most probably induced by the stronger North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-like atmospheric forcing, especially its southern pole (SP), in the preceding spring during this period. The spring NPO-like SP forces the KE SSTAs and PDO more directly during the following summer and can thus have been a better precursor for the following EASM than the full NPO-like dipole after the late 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale climate models (LCM) have been used to understand climate change and its effects, but there remains a concern about their inability fully to reflect local contexts and about a high degree of their uncertainty. Through a case study that involved residents of a coastal community in Central Vietnam, this paper presents how local people perceive climate change and characterize climate impacts on their life. Findings of the study show that local people perceive a variety of important manifestations of climate change, especially temperature, rainfall, sea level rise and monsoons, although they have limited ideas about future climate change. In addition, local people unpack the complexity of climate impacts through interactions among climatic events, livelihoods and the five capitals (physical, natural, financial, human and social resources). Findings of the research suggest that it will be necessary to move away from viewing coastal villages in Vietnam as homogenous units with shared climate experiences, and to combine both local experience and scientific evidence based on LCMs to promote the synergies and address the limitations of the two sources of information for climate interventions at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three major points of population migration toward the WHL occurred at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal BP, which correspond to the seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. [Display omitted] How various peoples crossed geographical barriers, were affected by climate change and human-made technologies comprise some of the most interesting quandaries in the history of cultures. This paper considers the Hu line, which is a major boundary between population centres and different environments in China. The boundary became evident approximately 11,400 years ago; however, evidence suggests that people crossed through at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal a BP, facilitating the increases of the trans-Eurasian exchange. The timings of the crossings correspond to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon that triggers seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. This analysis demonstrates that climate change on a millennial-to-centennial scale can have a profound influence on population distribution with long-term consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of twenty-first-century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over nine CORDEX domains at ∼25-km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, and energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I dataset, which will be incrementally augmented with new simulations, is intended to be a public resource available to the scientific and end-user communities for application to process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, and climate service activities. The future of the CORDEX-CORE initiative is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze a mini ensemble of regional climate projections over the CORDEX Africa domain carried out with RegCM4 model as part of the Phase I CREMA experiment (Giorgi ). RegCM4 is driven by the HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM global models for the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration scenarios. The focus of the analysis is on seasonal and intraseasonal monsoon characteristics. We find two prominent change signals. Over West Africa and the Sahel MPI produces a forward shift in the monsoon season in line with previous findings, and this shift is also simulated by the RegCM4. Furthermore, the regional model produces a widespread decrease of monsoon precipitation (when driven by both MPI and HadGEM) associated with decreased easterly wave activity in the 6-9 days regime and with soil moisture-precipitation interactions. South of the equator we find an extension of the dry season with delayed onset and anticipated recession of the monsoon and a narrowing and strengthening of the ITCZ precipitation band. This signal is consistent in all global and regional model projections, although with different spatial detail. We plan to enlarge this mini-ensemble as a further contribution to the CORDEX project to better assess the robustness of the signals found in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water vapour (H2O) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) has a significant role for global radiation. A realistic representation of H2O is therefore critical for accurate climate model predictions of future climate change. In this paper we investigate the effects of current uncertainties in tropopause temperature, horizontal transport and small-scale mixing on simulated H2O in the lower stratosphere (LS). To assess the sensitivities of simulated H2O, we use the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). First, we examine CLaMS, which is driven by two reanalyses, from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), to investigate the robustness with respect to the meteorological dataset. Second, we carry out CLaMS simulations with transport barriers along latitude circles (at the Equator, 15 and 35° N/S) to assess the effects of horizontal transport. Third, we vary the strength of parametrized small-scale mixing in CLaMS. Our results show significant differences (about 0.5 ppmv) in simulated stratospheric H2O due to uncertainties in the tropical tropopause temperatures between the two reanalysis datasets, JRA-55 and ERA-Interim. The JRA-55 based simulation is significantly moister when compared to ERA-Interim, due to a warmer tropical tropopause (approximately 2 K). The transport barrier experiments demonstrate that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) subtropics have a strong moistening effect on global stratospheric H2O. The comparison of tropical entry H2O from the sensitivity 15° N/S barrier simulation and the reference case shows differences of up to around 1 ppmv. Interhemispheric exchange shows only a very weak effect on stratospheric H2O. Small-scale mixing mainly increases troposphere--stratosphere exchange, causing an enhancement of stratospheric H2O, particularly along the subtropical jets in the summer hemisphere and in the NH monsoon regions. In particular, the Asian and American monsoon systems during a boreal summer appear to be regions especially sensitive to changes in small-scale mixing, which appears crucial for controlling the moisture anomalies in the monsoon UTLS. For the sensitivity simulation with varied mixing strength, differences in tropical entry H2O between the weak and strong mixing cases amount to about 1 ppmv, with small-scale mixing enhancing H2O in the LS. The sensitivity studies presented here provide new insights into the leading processes that control stratospheric H2O, which are important for assessing and improving climate model projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the regional climate model REMO is used to investigate the added value of downscaling low resolutions global climate models (GCMs) and the climate change projections over Central Africa. REMO was forced by two GCMs (EC-Earth and MPI-ESM), for the period from 1950 to 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. The performance of the REMO simulations for current climate is compared first with REMO simulation driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, then by the corresponding GCMs in order to determine whether REMO outputs are able to effectively lead to added value at local scale. We found that REMO is generally able to better represent some aspects of the rainfall inter-annual variability, the daily rainfall intensity distribution as well as the intra-seasonal variability of the Central African monsoon, though few biases are still evident. It is also found that the boundary conditions strongly influences the spatial distribution of seasonal 2-m temperature and rainfall. From the analysis of the climate change signal from the present period 1976-2005 to the future 2066-2095, we found that all models project a warming at the end of the twenty-first century although the details of the climate change differ between REMO and the driving GCMs, specifically in REMO where we observe a general decrease in rainfall. This rainfall decrease is associated with delayed onset and anticipated recession of the Central African monsoon and a shortening of the rainy season. Small-scales variability of the climate change signal for 2-m temperature are usually smaller than that of the large-scales climate change part. For rainfall however, small-scales induce change of about 70% compared to the present climate statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale atmospheric circulations significantly affect regional precipitation patterns. However, it is not well known whether and how these phenomena affect regional precipitation distribution in northern China. This paper reported the individual and coupled effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on annual precipitation for the Ordos Basin, an arid and semi-arid basin, currently with major industries of coal, fossil oil, natural gas, and halite in north central China. Our results showed that ENSO and ISM exerted substantial impact on annual precipitation while the impact of PDO and AMO was relatively limited. There were 24 and 15 out of 33 stations showing significant differences ( p < 0.1) in annual precipitation (from 1950 to 2013) for ENSO and ISM, respectively. The median precipitation across the basin during El Niño years was 21.49 % higher than that during La Niña years and 17.28 % higher during the positive phase of ISM years compared to the negative phase of the ISM years. The impacts of ENSO and ISM on precipitation were enhanced during a PDO cold phase but weakened in a PDO warm phase. The impact of ENSO was still enhanced by an AMO warm phase. The effects of climatic phenomena on precipitation showed a strong spatial difference in the Ordos Basin. The impact of ENSO was mostly evident around the edges of the basin while the impact of ISM decreases from south to north. The deserts (i.e., Hobq Desert and Mu Us Sandy Land) in the center of the basin were less affected by these large-scale climatic phenomena. An improved understanding of such relationships would be helpful in water resource planning and disaster management for the Ordos Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 21-22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7-21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7-21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951-2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7-21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Finnish Lapland, reindeer herders' activity is strongly dependent on the surrounding natural environment, which is directly exposed to environmental changes and climatic variations. By assessing whether there is any evidence of change in climate in Fell Lapland over the last 50 years, this paper attempts to link global climatic trends with local conditions and respond to the need of information at the local level. It aims at assessing the changes in temperature, precipitation and snow cover at a regional and local scale, as well as determining the climatic trends for the period 1960-2011. Statistical methods were used to conduct analyses of the regional homogeneity, the annual and seasonal variability, and the cold intensity. The results show that the regional climate is not homogeneous and differences exist between locations. Nevertheless, it can be concluded that, in general, a warming trend is discernible for the period 1960-2011, frost and thaw cycles slightly increase, and variations in mean temperatures are more important in the winter. Precipitation is more variable according to the site but, in general, precipitation is increasing with time, especially in the winter, and the snow cover does not seem to contain any discernible trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) is essential for sustaining services from Earth's critical zone, a thin-living skin spanning from the canopy to groundwater. In the Anthropocene epoch, intensive afforestation has remarkably contributed to global greening and certain service improvements, often at the cost of reduced SM. However, attributing the response of SM in deep soil to such human activities is a great challenge because of the scarcity of long-term observations. Here, we present a 37 y (1985 to 2021) analysis of SM dynamics at two scales across China's monsoon loess critical zone. Site-scale data indicate that land-use conversion from arable cropland to forest/grassland caused an 18% increase in SM deficit over 0 to 18 m depth (P < 0.01). Importantly, this SM deficit intensified over time, despite limited climate change influence. Across the Loess Plateau, SM storage in 0 to 10 m layer exhibited a significant decreasing trend from 1985 to 2021, with a turning point in 1999 when starting afforestation. Compared with SM storage before 1999, the relative contributions of climate change and afforestation to SM decline after 1999 were -8% and 108%, respectively. This emphasizes the pronounced impacts of intensifying land-use conversions as the principal catalyst of SM decline. Such a decline shifts 18% of total area into an at-risk status, mainly in the semiarid region, thereby threatening SM security. To mitigate this risk, future land management policies should acknowledge the crucial role of intensifying land-use conversions and their interplay with climate change. This is imperative to ensure SM security and sustain critical zone services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are few studies on the climate and glacial scale in the mountains east of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. So, we used glacial features to determine the range of the area's paleoglaciers and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of theGlA modern and paleoglaciers in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains. Then, the GlaRe toolbox 2015 () was used to reconstruct the surface of the paleoglaciers. The probable air temperature during the glacial advances of the LGM was calculated by applying the P-T and LR models. The results showed the following: (1) the change in ELA is 950 m in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains; (2) glacial coverage in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains during the LGM period was ~27.05 km2 and the glacial volume was ~9.94 km3; and (3) the mean temperature in the Tianchi area of the Changbai Mountains during the LGM was 6.6–9.0 °C lower than today's, and was the principal factor controlling the growth of glaciers. There is a difference in the climate change in monsoon-influenced mountains during the LGM, and this difference may be related to the precipitation in the mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene (approximately 3.3–3.0 Ma) was one of the past geological warm periods. Since this past warmer climate was in many respects comparable to near future warming projections, how the regional monsoonal rainfall changed during the mid-Pliocene is an important scientific and socioeconomic concern. Based on phase 2 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), this work examines the simulated changes of Sahel summer rainfall during the mid-Pliocene. The results show the considerable intermodel uncertainty of the simulated mid-Pliocene Sahel rainfall changes in the PlioMIP2 multimodel ensemble, which is due to the uncertainties of both the simulated dynamic and thermodynamic responses to this past warmer climate. In particular, we find that the intermodel spread in the simulated northern North American warming is a major source of the uncertainty of the mid-Pliocene Sahel summer rainfall changes through two processes. One is a direct dynamic process: a stronger warming over northern North America could enhance the meridional temperature gradient between the extratropical and tropical regions, inducing an interhemisphere energy imbalance of the atmosphere. This could lead to a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, strengthening the Western African summer monsoon (WASM) circulation and Sahel summer rainfall. Another is an indirect thermodynamic process: the strengthened WASM circulation could further induce anomalous moisture convergence over the Sahel region, increasing local atmospheric moisture at the low-level troposphere, in favor of a wetter Sahel. Our results suggest that an improved warming simulation over northern North America is essential for the hydrological cycle simulation around the Sahel in the mid-Pliocene warmer climate. Significance Statement: The Sahel summer rainfall change in a global warmer climate is a widespread scientific and socioeconomic issue because of its important impacts on regional agriculture, ecosystems, food security, water resources, and even cultural environment. However, the present study identifies a nonnegligible intermodel uncertainty of the simulated Sahel rainfall changes during the mid-Pliocene (one of the most recent geological warm periods in Earth's history) in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) multimodel ensemble. In particular, such an intermodel uncertainty of the simulated Sahel rainfall changes during the mid-Pliocene is attributed to that of the simulated northern North America warming via both the direct dynamic process and the indirect thermodynamic process. This is quite different from the uncertainty source of near-future projections of Sahel summer rainfall changes. The present results improve our understanding of the underlying physics of the hydrological cycle change around the Sahel region in the mid-Pliocene warmer climate, with implications for the future projections of regional monsoonal rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results of a study of long term trends in the characteristics of the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon rainfall over western India during the last five decades in relation to global warming induced regional climate change. In contrast to recent climate change analyses and projections, no significant long-term trends have been observed in this study. Slow decadal scale variations observed are analysed in relation to Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Daily variations in rainfall anomaly show opposite characteristics during negative and positive phases of PDO. The above-normal rainfall (>25%) is found during the starting phase of monsoon in negative PDO. Over the last decade, i.e., during 2000-2007, the seasonal rainfall amount, as well as seasonal span of southwest monsoon over western India is indicative of a gradual increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The years 2014 and 2015 turned out to be quite catastrophic for the Asia-Pacific region which took a major toll on the socioeconomic stature of all the entities of the region. The agricultural sector which is one of the most contributing factors to the economy of the region has been highly sensitive to the global climatic changes. Hence this endeavor shall greatly help in an efficient prediction of monsoon cycles, thus enabling the hapless farmers to be better informed and avoid major losses of any kind. The paper focuses on the climatology of air temperature and MSLP with the variation pattern in precipitation over the Asia-Pacific region. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data is used for air temperature and MSLP along with high-resolution precipitation dataset for Asia-Pacific monsoon region obtained from GPCP. The temperature datasets are analyzed up to the level 500 hPa. Monte Carlo method of correlation and Bootstrapping method of confidence interval are used to analyze the relation of GPCP with MSLP and temperature at all defined levels. So, in this paper authors attempt to assess the nature and relationship of temperature and MSLP to precipitation over the Asia-Pacific region with the recent 10-year changes which are quantified in detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper assesses the damage caused by 2010 flash flood and its underlying causes in the upper zone of Panjkora River within district Dir Upper, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province in Pakistan. Floods in general and flash floods in particular are very common in the area, and the phenomenon has intensified in the wake of observed climatic changes in the region. Anticipating an increase in the multiplicity of causes and a rise in the human, livelihood, and property losses attributed to flash floods calls for a detailed study of affected communities in the region. Within the study area of District Dir Upper-within the band of 200 m on both sides of Panjkora River, three most affected communities, namely Barikot, Kalkot, and Sharingal, were picked on random basis to have detailed analysis of underlying causes and the quantification of damage assessment in the area. Questionnaire-based household survey and structured interviews were conducted to investigate physical and economic damages in the sample sites. Global positioning system (GPS) survey is also conducted to acquire absolute location of damages, and geographic information system is used to visualize land use, land cover, physical features, and GPS data. Monsoon winds interacted with the westerlies abnormally caused unprecedented high intensity rainfall in the valley. The steep topography of the area caused rainwater to accumulate rapidly in the Panjkora River channel, overpowering the withholding capacity of the river. The flash flood inflected heavy losses to life and properties of the local population. The infrastructure such as houses, roads, retaining walls, bridges, water supply schemes, and irrigation channels were destroyed severely in the whole area particularly in Kalkot. Three explored underlying causes of flash floods and the degree of damage due to 2010 flash floods in the region call for an enhanced realization for climatic change adaptability, flood risk management, and mitigation measures, better flood response through early warning systems, and improved rehabilitation and recovery efforts within flood prone areas such as district Dir Upper, KP, Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]