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IFPRP, Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI); SAR, Rice plays a central role in the diet in Bangladesh and as a source of income for farmers. Although Bangladesh has largely liberalized international trade in rice, it maintains a public food distribution system to stablize prices, distributing an average of 2 million tons of rice per year at a cost of almost US$ 800 million per year. This study explores whether alternative policies could achieve similar stabilization at a lower cost. It uses a stochastic spatial-equilibrium model of rice markets to simulate monthly prices in eight regions of the country. Stochastic shocks are used to simulate fluctuations in regional production, replicating historical patterns at the region-season level, as well as inter-regional correlation in production shocks. It also simulates fluctuation in world rice prices, mimicking the mean, variance, and serial correlation of historical wholesale prices of rice in Delhi. Public procurement and distribution follow historic averages by month and region. Private storage is represented by a simplified version of rational expectations models, in which net storage is a non-linear function of availability in the previous month.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion (PGI); Food and Nutrition Policy; Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies, Numerous structural vulnerabilities put developing regions at a disadvantage as they confront the prospect of increasingly frequent extreme shocks. Typical of these regions, South Asia had several characteristics that suggested it would be badly hit by COVID-19: a sizeable informal sector, growing inequalities in access to health services and social protection, and high levels of hunger and malnutrition. This Special Issue focuses on the South Asian experience through COVID-19 and distills forward-looking lessons for the developing world. Included papers point to the importance of strengthening individual resilience, building basic infrastructure and institutional capacity, and implementing inclusive social protection measures.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies; Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy

PR, IFPRI4, AFR; SAR; LAC; Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy; Transformation Strategies, Recent global crises have led to diverse impacts across the world’s low- and middle-income regions, reflecting local conditions and differing policy responses. These effects are often compounded by more local shocks and crises, including prolonged conflict and violence, natural disasters, and fragile economic and governance systems. This section examines the impacts of recent food crises to identify both future risks and promising policy options that could improve early warning, immediate response, and resilience building in each region.

PR, IFPRI4, AFR; DSGD; EPTD; SAR, Climate change is a truly global threat, but its impacts differ around the world. Regions and countries urgently need to identify and implement policy responses that reflect local needs and opportunities. This section examines the effects of climate change on national and regional food systems in Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, East and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. For each major region, promising innovations and policy directions to promote the resilience and sustainability of food systems are considered: - Scaling up social protection programs in Africa south of the Sahara - Strengthening the focus on climate adaptation in Africa - Rethinking water use in the Middle East and North Africa - Promoting climate-smart practices and crop diversification in Central Asia - Reforming agricultural support policies in South Asia - Improving financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation in East and Southeast Asia - Supporting global food security and sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean

Non-PR, IFPRI1; IFPRI-ICAR; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; Capacity Strengthening, SAR, The COVID-19 pandemic has decimated the lives and livelihoods of people around the world. The impact of COVID-19 has been especially devastating for low-income families in rural areas of India. Food insecurity became pervasive in rural areas soon after the nationwide lockdown was announced, as many families relied on daily wage work to fund basic necessities. By providing cash transfers and the additional foodgrains, Indian policymakers acted swiftly to reduce the financial impact on family income and consumption. This paper investigates the factors affecting the participation of rural families in the cash transfer program and the effect of government cash transfers on food insecurity. Results indicate that the government cash transfer program in India decreased moderate food insecurity by 2.4% and severe food insecurity by about 0.92%.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, SAR, The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has decimated the lives and livelihoods of people worldwide. The impact of COVID-19 has been especially devastating for low-income families in rural areas of India. Soon after the nationwide lockdown was announced, food insecurity became pervasive in rural areas, as many families relied on daily wage work to fund necessities. By providing cash transfers and additional foodgrains, Indian policymakers acted swiftly to reduce the financial impact on family income and consumption. This paper investigates the factors affecting rural families' participation in the cash transfer program and the effect of government cash transfers on food insecurity. Results indicate that India's government cash transfer program decreased moderate food insecurity by 2.4% and severe food insecurity by about 0.92%.

Non-PR, IFPRI4; CRP4; ReSAKSS Asia; CRP2, PHND; SAR; PIM; DGO; A4NH, CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH); CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Public food transfer programs serve as an important safety net for those facing hunger and food insecurity in both low- and high-income countries around the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these programs have become even more crucial, as food insecurity and poverty rates have soared. But lockdowns and other public health restrictions can also disrupt food distribution operations and thus limit their effectiveness.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; BIMSTEC, SAR, The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization which came into being in 1997. It comprises seven member states: five from South Asia, namely, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, and two from Southeast Asia, Myanmar and Thailand. BIMSTEC region is home to around 1.5 billion people, that is, nearly 22 percent of the global population with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of US$2.7 trillion.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; IFPRI-ICAR, SAR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), COVID-19 induced significant economic and social disruptions in India. Rural households, including smallholders, were affected by loss in migrant income, livelihood and farm and non-farm incomes. During this lockdown, the Indian government enacted several emergency legislations to provide direct and indirect relief to workers and households. India's COVID-19 social assistance package, namely, PM-GKY, announced in March 2020, was designed to provide immediate relief to the vulnerable population. The PM-GKY provided cash direct benefit transfers (DBT) and in-kind supports (IKS) through existing schemes.

Non-PR, IFPRI4; PRSSP; CRP2, DSGD; SAR; PHND; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), With about 1,200 people per square kilometer, Bangladesh is one the most densely populated countries on the planet. The reality of intense population pressure is reflected in commonly portrayed images in the popular media, such as crowded buses and trains with passengers on top, endless lines of human-powered rickshaws, and deaths in the thousands from both natural and man-made disasters. With increasing landlessness, and a heavy reliance on labor markets, understanding the dynamics of wage formation in this setting is critically important for identifying the process of economic transformation and poverty reduction. However, both theories and empirics of wage determination in Bangladesh, and elsewhere in developing countries, have intrigued economists for decades. The neoclassical theories, where labor demand and wages are determined by the marginal physical product, cannot explain stable wages amid seemingly unlimited supply of workers and massive involuntary unemployment in developing countries like Bangladesh. The reason is simple: if market clearing conditions hold, unemployed workers should bid down wages until full employment as reached. One set of theories that provide a more coherent explanation of stable wages amid abundant labor supply has been the nutrition-based efficiency wage theory, originally proposed by Leibenstein (1957) and Mazumdar (1959). The premise of this theory is that since productivity depends on consumption, it is in the interest of the employers to pay a wage that ensures minimum calorie requirement of the workers so that they can work effectively.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; IFPRP; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, DSGD; SAR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Bangladesh has a long history of catering to the consumption needs of its population through public distribution of food-grains—rice and wheat—stored across an extensive network of warehouses all over the country. This network has its roots in the Bengal famine, but now performs a variety of functions ranging from price support to providing a safety net against crises. However, the storage infrastructure is old, with many warehouses having originated some sixty years ago. The food security situation in Bangladesh has also improved remarkably from the time when this warehousing network was established. Finally, there have been remarkable improve-ments in both technology and management of grain storage that have increased overall efficiency.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; IFPRP, DSGD; SAR; PIM; MTID, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Price instability is a fact of life. In a market economy, domestic prices change in response to changes in supply, consumer preferences, policy, world prices, and other factors. Crop prices tend to be particularly volatile because harvests occur only once or a few times per year and because the size of the harvest varies due to weather, prices, and other factors. For internationally-traded commodities, volatility in world prices can be another source of instability in domestic prices.

PR, IFPRI1; ReSAKSS Asia; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, DSGD; PHND; SAR, Public food transfer program provide a lifeline for the poor in both high- and low-income countries, and many countries stepped these up in response to COVID-19. But little is known about how effective these programs have been in reaching the poor during the crisis. This brief reviews the findings of an evaluation of Bangladesh’s Food Friendly Program, pointing to the difficulties encountered during the pandemic and lessons to help these program perform better in future crises.

PR, IFPRI4; NSSP; CRP2; EgyptSSP; PACE; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme, DGO; PIM; LAC; MTID; PHND; DSGD; ECAO; SAR; AFR, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), As the coronavirus pandemic reached every corner of the world in 2020, countries responded rapidly with an array of policies to stop the spread of the highly contagious disease, and then with social and economic policies to protect food security, incomes, and livelihoods. This experience brought attention to weaknesses in health, economic, and social protection systems. But it also showcased new innovations, policy approaches, and the surprising resilience of food systems. The diverse experiences of the world’s major regions have important lessons for creating sustainable, equitable, efficient, healthy, and resilient food systems. The impact of COVID-19 on food systems, wellbeing, and future transformation is examined for each major region.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; IFPRI-ICAR, SAR, the April–June 2020 quarter, the nation's agricultural sector, somewhat surprisingly, seems to have done remarkably well. This paper examines whether the public transfer program Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY), announced immediately after the lockdown, benefited farmers in dealing with the COVID shock. Overall, 95% of the smallholders received support from at least one of PMGKY's four components. Direct cash transfers had significantly more impact than in‐kind transfer schemes. The result shows that farmers receiving cash transfers under PM‐KISAN, one component of PMGKY, were more likely to invest in buying seeds. In contrast, farmers receiving cash transfers under PM‐UY, another piece of PMGKY, were more likely to invest in fertilizer and pesticides. Finally, smallholders who received benefits from all four components of PMGKY were more likely to invest in purchasing seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides. Findings suggest the fungibility of public cash transfers from the recent PMGKY scheme is significant in alleviating credit constraints and increasing future investments in modern inputs.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; DCA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; Capacity Strengthening; IFPRI-ICAR, SAR; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), While the COVID-19 pandemic resulted about 24% decline in Indian GDP during April-June 2020 quarter, the nation’s agricultural sector, somewhat surprisingly, seems to have done remarkably well during the same period. Using phone survey of a sample of previously interviewed households from Northern India, this paper examines whether the package of public transfer program announced during the lockdown, called Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PM-GKY), has helped farmers deal with the shock. Overall, results show that 95 percent of the small holders received supports from at least one of the components of the PM-GKY scheme. Direct cash transfers have performed better than the in-kind transfer schemes. The econometric analysis, using a quasi-experimental method, suggests that the fungibility of funds received under the transfer package was significant in alleviating credit constraints and increasing agricultural investments in modern inputs. This is evident from the results that when only income support program (PM-KISAN) is considered, impact was limited to seed, not fertilizer and pesticides. By contrast, farmers who received benefits from all four programs (i.e., PM-KISAN, cash transfer for women, conditional cash transfers, and free food rations-KISAN) had spent significantly more on procurement of seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; ReSAKSS; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, DSGD; SAR; PHND, Public food transfer programmes act as a lifeline for many poor households that might otherwise live with constant food insecurity and the threat of hunger. Such programmes are important for the poor and vulnerable in low-income countries such as Bangladesh, but also in high-income countries such as the USA. In the USA in 2019 alone, more than 35 million individuals received food assistance from its largest anti-hunger transfer programme -- the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programme (SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps. In the 2019-20 financial year, in Bangladesh, the Khaddo Bandhob Karmasuchi (Food Friendly Programme, FFP), a similar programme that offers subsidised rice during the lean season twice a year, reached about 5 million households (equivalent to 27.5 million people) at a cost of more than BDT 32.0 billion (source: Directorate General of Food). FFP is the country's largest anti-hunger programme in terms of outreach, and since rice is the main staple providing about 60 per cent of average calorie intake for the poor, the programme is immensely important in ensuring that the poor are able to meet their basic caloric requirements.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; DCA; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, SAR; DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), We evaluated a large transfer program in Bangladesh, named the Food Friendly Program (FFP, Khaddo Bandhob Karmasuchi), based on observational data. The program aims to provide nutritional support to poor rural households during preharvest seasons by offering rice at a subsidized price. It is a targeted program where the selection of the beneficiaries takes place through local governments and community consultations. We examined both inclusion and exclusion errors and measured the magnitude of corruption in the program. We found that for every taka spent by the government under the FFP, about 0.88 taka, on an average, reaches the eligible beneficiaries. In addition, we also looked at the regional variations in poverty and redistribution. The program seems to be achieving a high level of targeting efficiency, though spatial heterogeneity remains an important drawback. Our evaluation offers some important policy lessons discussed in detail in the report.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, SAR; DSGD

Non-PR, IFPRI5, SAR; DSGD, Dealing with nation-wide disruptions is nothing new to Bangladesh. Political unrest, military coups, and natural disasters in the country have time and again made global news headlines, often with sad imageries. The people of the country and its leadership have also been widely applauded for their resilience and success in managing large-scale shocks. But the lockdown under COVID-19 appears to be different. It is clearly the largest disruption of livelihoods in the country's history, with its long-term impacts far exceeding the earlier shocks, such as the 1998 floods or many episodes of tumultuous political unrest.

PR, IFPRI1; EgyptSSP; PRSSP; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); CRP2, DGO; AFR; DSGD; SAR; LAC; PIM; MTID, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), BUILDING INCLUSIVE FOOD SYSTEMS TO HELP REACH THE GOAL OF ENDING HUNGER and malnutrition globally will require innovation and investment at the regional and country levels. This section discusses problems, policies, and prospects for regional and national food systems in 2020 and beyond across the major regions: Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, East and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. The challenges and potential of inclusion to transform food systems for better well-being and nutrition are examined for each region, along with other current topics

Non-PR, IFPRI1, SAR, This proceeding is a documentation of the policy forum. The next section presents the synopsis of the inaugural session which was followed by the technical sessions and a panel discussion. There were three technical sessions: (1) Employment and Livelihoods: Challenges and Opportunities for Rural Revitalization; (2) Nutrition and Health: Challenges and Breakthroughs for Rural-Transformation; and (3) Natural Resources, Environment, and Rural Health. The technical sessions were followed by a final concluding session.

PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; CRP4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry, DSGD; SAR; PIM; A4NH, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), Led by aquaculture, the fishery sector in Bangladesh has been remarkably successful in rapidly increasing production, reducing prices, and meeting rising domestic demand. The trend has defied many earlier predictions, and the success clearly deserves to be labeled a Blue Revolution. In the early 1990s, when the country was celebrating the success of the Green Revolution, per capita annual fish consumption was only 10 kilograms, with widespread concerns that consumption could decline even further because of rising prices (Bouis and Haddad 1992). The policy ambition was not high even in the early 2000s. In 2005 a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report argued that reaching per capita consumption of 18 kilograms per year would be a big accomplishment. The country far exceeded that target by 2010; and according to the latest estimates, per capita fish consumption in Bangladesh reached 23 kilograms per year in 2016 (BBS 2017). This book has attempted to understand the enablers, impacts, and prospects of this unprecedented growth.

PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; CRP4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry, DSGD; SAR; PIM; A4NH, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), A rapid increase in aquaculture production in Bangladesh has lowered fish prices, increased protein consumption, and reduced poverty. The Making of a Blue Revolution in Bangladesh offers a valuable case study of how this transformation in the fish value chain has occurred and how it has improved the lives of both fish producers and fish consumers and considers the future potential of aquaculture in Bangladesh.

PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; CRP4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry, SAR; PIM; A4NH, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), In the last half of the 20th century, food policy in most Asian countries meant ensuring availability of cereals, mainly rice and wheat.1 The rationale for this cereal-centric policy is well understood. Agricultural productivity was low, the world market was volatile, and the national food security depended on, apart from Mother Nature, the relationship with the donor countries, which was not smooth because of ideological differences. By the early 1960s, feeding a rapidly growing population became a daunting challenge for the region’s countries. Many experts viewed these challenges as too big to handle. “Famine 1975” (Paddock and Paddock 1967), “lifeboat ethics” (Hardin 1974), and “triage” (Ehrlich 1971) were the labels commonly applied to these countries. Thanks to Green Revolution technology and concerted policy actions, none of the dire predictions turned out to be true. By the 1980s, countries in the region ensured cereal availability and began to enjoy overall economic growth (Rashid, Cummings, and Gulati 2007).