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This paper explores community perspectives of environmental change and the role development actors in the regional Nepali town of Nepalganj. Understanding these perceptions is crucial for planning future adaptation to climate change and ensuring that these measures are sustainable and in line with community priorities. Firstly, I contend that whilst the local community in Nepalganj may be experiencing the impacts of climate change, they are unfamiliar and disassociated with the concept. Secondly, I identify a number of risks and opportunities around the role of local government, international development organisations and local non-government organisations in future adaptation actions. Participant perceptions of these institutions in their community reinforce a number of established critiques of development around themes such as poor consultation and short project timelines. The long-term success of adaptation actions will be shaped by the ability and willingness of development actors to evolve their practices by listening to local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary human rights documents of the United Nations claim that every human has a right to development, a right that also includes continuous improvement of each person's living conditions. On one interpretation, this implies a right to a never-ending improvement of living conditions. According to the author, this interpretation faces several counterintuitive implications. First, it seems reasonable that we cannot have a right to improvement without regard to environmental sustainability; improvements must instead focus on well-being, a concept that is partially unrelated to material improvements. Second, if development is a human right, there are several distributional problems with this right. The paper discusses three different responses to the idea that everybody has a right to continuous improvement and concludes that the best solution is to reject the idea that everyone has such a right. This does not imply that we must reject a right to a certain minimum level of well-being; it just means that this right cannot include claims for never-ending improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper in this journal I argued that the distribution of the burdens involved in combating climate change should be determined by a combination of a particular version of the Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) and a particular version of the Ability to Pay Principle. Carl Knight has presented three objections to my analysis. In what follows, I argue that he largely misinterprets my arguments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Liberalism faces a tension between its commitment to minimal interference with individual liberty and the urgent need for strong collective action on global climate change. This paper attempts to resolve that tension. It does so on the one hand by defending an expanded model of collective moral responsibility, according to which a set of individuals can be responsible, qua 'putative group', for harm resulting from the predictable aggregation of their individual acts. On the other, it defends a collectivized version of the harm principle. The claim is that the collectivized principle pushes the burden of argument, against coercively enforced measures to curtail climate change and compensate its victims, onto the global elite collectively responsible for environmental harms. Some such potential arguments are briefly considered and rejected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with two senses of disowning in the context of climate change and human modification of nature generally. In one of these senses disowning is something to be encouraged; but in the other sense discussed here, disowning is to be discouraged. Both raise problems for liberal theory. There is no space here to do little more than indicate some of these problems; consequently the paper is mainly negative and critical in tone. Although I focus mainly on the other sense, I begin in the first part of the paper with the kind of disowning to be discouraged. This is the tendency to deny, or ignore, the responsibility we have for - and in that way 'disown' - the world we are in fact in the process of making including its climatic component. The other sense of disowning I go on to discuss mainly in relation to Hegel's account of property. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is based on the premise that the science of climate change is fast becoming a powerful orthodoxy amongst many intellectuals, governments, corporations and non-government organisations, particularly in the global North. In recognising this dominant category in scholarly and political discourses, our key intention in this paper is not to deny or validate the premises and conclusions of climate change scientists in any essentialist manner, but to build on and develop the insights offered by number of recent studies by political geographers exploring the how and why of the discursive production of geographical knowledge (in plural) of climate change by various actors/agencies, in support of certain domestic as well as foreign policy agendas. We argue that it is the geopolitics of fear that appears to be dictating and driving the dominant climate change discourse both in and about Bangladesh. The paper first develops a theoretical perspective through which to analyse the imaginative geographies of climate change-induced displacements and their implications for Bangladesh, and its Indian Oceanic neighbourhood. Next, we focus on various facets of the geopolitics of fear and on some of the key sites where climate change knowledge production about Bangladesh is taking place. One of the ways in which climate change is folded into a discourse of fear (that, in turn, requires a geopolitical response) is by referencing the 'problem' of refugees. Penultimately, then, we then move on to deconstruct the official discourses and political speeches both within Bangladesh and its immediate neighbourhood in India, in order to reveal the underlying geopolitics of fear and boundary-reinforcing cartographic anxieties about climate change-induced displacements and migrations. We conclude the article by examining the prospects for counter-imaginative geographies of hope and the role they could possibly play in approaching the issue of climate change-induced migrations from the angle of human security and human rights of the socially disadvantaged, dispossessed and displaced in the global South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climate treaty like the one which should replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012, may have important impacts on the oil, gas and coal markets. The full impact of such a treaty will not be felt before 2030. In this paper one uses a computable general equilibrium model as a simulator of the world economy to obtain a description of the demand laws for oil, gas and coal in a period centered in 2030. One then uses a hierarchical game à la Stackelberg where OPEC is a price fixing leader and a competitive fringe replies competitively according to a supply-demand equilibrium for the three competitive energy forms, oil, gas and coal. This permits one to assess the possible power of OPEC to counteract the effect of a world tax on carbon content. One shows the possible effect on oil price, OPEC wealth or market share, and global emissions reduction achieved for different tax levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper provides a scientific assessment of the inter-decadal variability of the Asian summer monsoon and its significant effect on precipitation patterns in China. The paper consists of four parts. The first part shows the observed inter-decadal weakening of the Asian summer monsoon since the end of 1970s. The second part describes the impact of the weakening Asian summer monsoon on precipitation in China, which caused the major monsoon rainbelt to shift southward from North China to South China over about 30 years, with a 60-80 oscillation dominating. The third part projects the future change of the Asian summer monsoon in the warmer climate by using IPCC AR4 climate models. It has been found that major monsoon rainfall belts in East Asia will move northward in the 2040s, with summer precipitation in North China increasing considerably and stably. Finally, in the fourth part, the implication of the adaptation to the above climate change and related water management will be discussed including the water transport engineering project from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River and North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal and marine environments are among the most popular areas for outdoor recreation and tourism. Coastal areas have also been identified as the most vulnerable to climate change, for example as a result of extreme events and sea-level rise. It will be increasingly important for coastal tourism destination managers to understand their vulnerability to climatic changes and to devise appropriate adaptation. This paper presents a five-step vulnerability assessment methodology for tourism in coastal areas. The five steps include (1) system analysis, (2) identification of activity and hazard sub-systems, (3) vulnerability assessments for the different sub-systems at risk, (4) integration for the destination as a whole and scenario analysis and (5) communication. The framework is illustrated by an example of how it might be applied to Fiji. The paper concludes that a consistent methodology, like the one proposed, will facilitate vulnerability assessments in a range of coastal destinations, allow comparison to be made of vulnerabilities across different situations, provide a basis for more research into specific adaptation measures and assist destinations to develop a more sustainable tourism industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines the use of geographical information systems for predicting the possible implications of future climate change (as suggested by General Circulation Models) on the archaeological resource of selected parts of two major British river systems, the Trent and Yorkshire Ouse. The effects of future climatic change on the historic environment are likely to come from both natural 'system' responses, such as increased bank erosion and valley floor sedimentation, as well as the human adaptive responses selected to manage the impacts of climate change. The models described in this paper allow predictions to be made and quantified about how selected natural and anthropogenic responses may impact upon the archaeological resource. Such approaches, which are relatively rapid to implement and low cost, provide an important management tool for guiding policy makers and heritage managers in the face of changing climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the heating and cooling loads between a double skin façade and a single skin façade in different and contrasting climates. The thermal and lighting properties of both types of facades are calculated, based on the hypothesis of a virtual south facing office room. The results of the above calculations show that in climates with high sunshine duration, the difference in heating and cooling loads is less for a double skin façade in comparison to a single skin facade. This difference ranges from about 30% in the Mediterranean to about 40% in the Arabian peninsula in the case that the single skin building is not equipped with automatic shading devices, whereas in the case that both buildings have automatic shading devices the above percentages range from about 5.5% to 7.5%, respectively. The same difference in heating and cooling loads between the two types of facades is significantly reduced in colder Continental climates such as Moscow, as well as temperate climates such as London. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A proportional shift in where geographer-climatologists publish has occurred in recent decades. More than 1,500 journal articles published by members of the Association of American Geographers' Climate Specialty Group (CSG) in the period 1989–2005 were examined to determine where geographer-climatologists are publishing. The analysis showed that members of the CSG cumulatively published at least ten articles in thirty-seven different journals. No single journal accounted for more than 7 percent of the articles published. Although the absolute number of articles has remained relatively static, geographer-climatologists published 21 percent of their articles in geography journals in 1989–1997, but only 11 percent in 1998–2005. These publication trends are likely to continue and may influence the status and prestige of geography journals and the discipline of geography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes some of the changes that affected the coastlines of South Uist and Benbecula following the 'Great Storm' of 11 January 2005. The paper considers historical changes in patterns of winter storminess and addresses the issue of whether or not there has been a recent increase in regional storminess, manifested partly by this particular storm. The paper concludes on the basis of available Greenland ice core chemistry data and historical climate data, together with recent meteorological data, that no such increase has taken place. This surprising conclusion is further discussed in relation to current thinking on the nature of recent climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze upright mountain pine (Pinus montana Miller) radial growth responses to climatic and environmental factors in a valley of the Central Italian Alps. This valley is characterized by intense geomorphological dynamics that can mostly be traced back to instability processes and particularly to debris flows. Here, there are also less active areas that allow undisturbed tree growth and permit dendroclimatic research to be performed. The relationship between climatic factors and radial growth in mountain pine was established by Pearson's correlation and response functions using four chronologies. Two were built using trees located on opposite valley slopes; the other two from the valley bottom. One of these last two is constructed with trees growing in areas occasionally affected by sheetfloods. We found that the climate of the summer months has the strongest influence on tree-ring growth: especially May and July mean temperatures and June precipitation. In contrast, the chronology built with trees located in the valley bottom in an area affected by sheetfloods, shows different climate-growth relationships especially concerning summer precipitation. The burial made by silt layers and the more impermeable conditions of the substrate seem to be the main factors regulating tree growth in this area. Comparing this chronology with the reference chronologies, we found that some years with growth anomalies in the disturbed site correspond to debris flow events dated by previous studies in nearby fans. This paper points out the potential use of mountain pine for dendroclimatic reconstruction and the influence of soft slope processes on tree growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explains the evolution of research into tourism and climate change, illustrating how early work concentrated on the impact of climate change on tourism, whereas current work also explores the impact of tourism on climate change. It goes on to elaborate a research agenda on both topics. The need to open up tourism research to other fields and professional worlds - such as climatology, the International Panel on Climate Change and transport research - is stressed, as is the need to organise the research community on a global basis, with more collaborative and comparative research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the approach and reasoning behind two central conceptual diagrams relating tourism and climate change. The first diagram describes a typical polarisation in tourism and climate change knowledge management. It is argued that this polarisation restricts the collective body of knowledge and obscures important causal links between tourism and climate change phenomena. Developments are proposed in a second conceptual model which counters the tendency of scientists, policymakers, the tourism industry and NGOs to polarise along two research interests by discussing climate's influence on tourism vs. tourism's influence on climate; either of which could be interpreted as a primary limitation to the sustainability of tourism. The paper places into context key perspectives in the tourism-climate change discussions, addresses the difficulty of including system feedbacks between human activity and climate interactions, and draws attention to the underlying drivers of unsustainable trends. New strategic conceptual models are advocated to support long-term non-territorial collaboration, to incorporate adaptation and mitigation in ways which are not mutually exclusive, and to address the following paradox: that the cross-section of the global population driving the demand for tourism resources threatened by climate change are also disproportionately responsible for increased radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2004, the UK government published advice to planning authorities on ways in which the planning system might respond to climate change. This paper provides an account of the process of the formulation of that advice and the subsequent policy guidance, analysing the tensions revealed and offering an explanation of why the process took some time. It argues that the story can be understood in institutionalist terms, which recognize the different perspectives of planning policy communities and climate change policy communities. The decision to publish advice provided a policy arena in which these different interests sought to influence the agenda, employing competing policy discourses of discretionary enablement and more urgent prescription. These discourses partly reflected different approaches to the role of government, but also revealed the complexities of climate change as a new and uncharted issue facing the planning system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the relations of (1) regionalized climate change impulses; (2) their impacts on regional industry sectors; and (3) a regional econometric impact analysis. It develops a methodology by which the impulses of a regional climate change scenario can be transformed into ‘primary’ impacts on the capital stock and value added of climate-sensitive regional industries. These industries are vulnerable to ‘creeping’, i.e. continuous, climate change impulses, and they tend to react through ‘defensive’ investment. In addition, a singular flooding event is simulated for a specific local area and its different capital stocks. The stock damages and value-added losses of both the continuous industrial impacts and the singular flooding are inserted into a regional econometric model. This is sectorally disaggregated in stock, value-added and investment functions. It is also calibrated in the very-long run (through to the year 2040), according to different scenarios. The regional economic ‘secondary’ effects on the regional GNP are calculated. In addition to the calculation of regional economic primary and secondary impacts, the methodological issue of generating more transparency of the causal chains by use of damage functions, reaction functions, and comparative defensive strategies are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change policies are informed by contributions from public, private and civil society organisations at a range of scales from the local to the global. Such policy formation has come to be termed multilevel governance. Transnational networks of local authorities are an emerging feature of multilevel governance and they have been heralded as a means to improve the implementation of climate change policy on the ground. However empirical evaluation of these transnational climate change networks is geographically limited and no research examining their impact in Ireland has been conducted. In response this paper considers the significance of European climate change networks within Ireland's climate change strategy. It concludes that these formal transnational networks have had limited impact to date due to ongoing negotiations about the politics of scale and responsibility with respect to climate change policies in Ireland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the climate change adaptation measures in the construction industry in Great Britain. Development of government policy to encourage the required adaptation in the building industry; Dimensions of climate change impact; Governance of adaptation; Justification of government intervention; Choice of instruments for the adaptation; Uncertainty about climate change.

The aim of this paper is to present a modeling framework for deriving emissions corridors that preserve the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The framework consists of a multi-gas reduced-form climate model coupled to a four-box THC model and allows for the main physical uncertainties (i.e., climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivity) to be taken into account. The emissions corridors are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach (TWA). The corridor boundaries demarcate emissions limits for the 21st century beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. Accordingly, the corridors represent the maneuvering space for climate policies committed to preserve the THC without endangering future economic growth. Results indicate a large dependence of the width of the emissions corridors on climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivity: for low values of climate and/or hydrological sensitivity the upper corridor boundary is far from being transgressed by any of the SRES emissions scenario for the 21st century, while for high values of both quantities even low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the ability of women to adapt to climate change pressures will be enhanced by using the 'capabilities approach' to direct development efforts. By using this approach, women will improve their well-being, and act more readily as agents of change within their communities. This argument is supported by previous research on gender and livelihoods, and a study conducted in rural India. Examples are based on the experiences of poor, rural women in India, who are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Their survival is dependent on their being able to obtain many essential resources from their immediate environment. Yet these women lack many of the requirements for well-being, such as access to healthcare, literacy, and control over their own lives. Gaining these would reduce their vulnerability to their changing environmental circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article argues that climate change not only requires major technological solutions, but also has political and socio-economic aspects with implications for development policy and practice. Questions of globalisation, equity, and the distribution of welfare and power underlie many of its manifestations, and its impacts are not only severe, but also unevenly distributed. There are some clear connections, both positive and negative, between gender and the environment. This paper explores these linkages, which help to illustrate the actual and potential relationships between gender and climate change, and the gender-specific implications of climate change. It also provides examples of women organising for change around sustainable development issues in the build-up to the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), and demonstrates how women's participation can translate into more gender-sensitive outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper starts by assessing the extent to which gender considerations have been taken into account in the international processes concerning the development of climate change policy. Finding that there has been very little attention to gender issues, neither in the protocols and treaties nor in the debates around them, the paper goes on to consider whether there are in fact any meaningful gender considerations as regards (a) emissions of greenhouse gases, (b) vulnerability to climate change, and (c) participation in projects under climate funding. It concludes by suggesting some areas where attention to gender could improve the effectiveness of climate interventions and also benefit women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the development and application of a technique for using satellite altimeter measurements as boundary data to drive the nearshore spectral wave model, SWAN. The aim was to assess the impact in coastal areas of extreme events or changes in offshore climatology and to extend the usefulness of satellite altimetry further inshore. For the purpose of verifying the technique, three test areas where both bathymetry and some in situ data were available were chosen. The technique could, potentially, be applied to any coastal location where there is bathymetric information although, as the results reported in this paper show, intelligence must be used in adapting the methodology for different sites. It is also necessary to have information on the local wind field from either models or measurements. The experiments at the three test areas demonstrated that there is not a simple relationship between the offshore wave height climate and the inshore climate in a particular region. Important complicating factors are bathymetry, tidal range and incident wave angle. As was most clearly demonstrated in the Carmarthen Bay test area, bathymetric complexity leads to high spatial variation in the amount of wave energy dissipated close to the coast. In the study of extreme wave events described in this paper the exact value of the local wind field was not found to be critical. This work was a first trial combining wave climatology derived from satellite altimetry with a third generation coastal wave model so was necessarily experimental. The general trends and patterns of spatial variation obtained are encouraging but there remains significant, unquantifiable uncertainty in the results. Better observations of nearshore waves, improved understanding of the joint probability distribution of water level and waves as well as more knowledge of future climate change would all improve accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of satellite cloud detection methods include the use of Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP) surface temperatures as a threshold for the thermal infrared cloud detection test. The NWP model surface temperature and the satellite apparent brightness temperature are assumed to correlate well for clear sky. Investigations over Europe in April 1997 indicate that the correlation over land is highly dependent on location and time of day. In this paper, it is shown that this variation of the correlation has a distinct impact on the quality of the infrared cloud detection test. As a result, cloud cover fractions which are retrieved using this thermal infrared test are biased by this effect. This can have serious impact on the quality of cloud climatologies, especially with respect to the diurnal variation of cloud cover fraction. A new method is introduced to equalize the quality of the infrared cloud detection test throughout the day. Threshold values are allowed to be smaller than commonly used and therefore the quality of the infrared test is improved. The method may be applied in both climate research and near real-time processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports conclude that for Australasia, without adaptation, further changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, sea-level rise and ocean acidity are projected to have substantial impacts on climate sensitive systems, sectors and populations. In the context of varying geographical, social, cultural and policy contexts, this paper reviews research contributions and activities concerning coastal adaptation to climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand. It reflects on the insights derived from this emerging pool of scholarship and considers what lessons have been learned to help us address the future challenges of adaptation to climate change on our coasts and estuaries. In particular, future progress will require strong understanding of natural coastal systems, clearer national direction and guidance in balance with regional flexibility, and collaborative processes to help communities understand, implement and evaluate adaptation pathways for a sustainable and resilient future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mud huts with 450/500 mm thick mud walls, clay-tiled roofs and often having courtyards are a common form of vernacular architecture in areas around Ranchi in Jharkhand. They have been vernacular solutions to the then prevailing climate of Ranchi. The climate has changed to some extent over the last three decades. The paper discusses the design features of the existing mud huts of Jharkhand with reference to the climate. There is an attempt to identify the changes and to relate them to desirable adaptations in response. The focus is the temperature and humidity measurements, studied with respect to the general conditions of thermal comfort for naturally ventilated spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The vernacular architecture of Kashmir represents a traditional knowledge base that has evolved in response to the climatic conditions, the traditional lifestyle of the residents, and various natural threats in the form of earthquake, flood etc., affecting the region. Yet, our advance into the ‘modern scientific age’ has witnessed an eroding of this rich heritage. The paper examines the salient features of Kashmir’s vernacular architecture, the challenges facing it and the steps that have been taken to protect it, including how to adapt it to contemporary life. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate skepticism in the UK media has not been a major focus of recent research. This paper aims to help fill the gap by looking at the incidence of skeptical voices in UK newspapers across three periods: 2007, 2009/2010, and 2010/2011. After analyzing more than 3200 articles, it finds that skeptical voices increased their presence markedly across all newspapers and all types of articles in the second period, and maintained a significant presence in many in the third. Uncontested skeptical voices were particularly prevalent in opinion pieces and editorials in right-leaning newspapers in the second. It also finds that skeptical voices or opinions were more likely to be included in pieces written by in-house non-specialist columnists than by environment editors or correspondents. The negative implications of the results for public understanding and the quality of public debate are then explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary purpose of my original paper was to examine historical rates of accelerated valley floor sedimentation in the Lead-Zinc District of the Upper Mississippi Valley. The principal conclusion that the temporal and spatial variations of historical floodplain sedimentation have been significantly influenced by "land use, climatic events, and changes in channel morphology. . ." remains unchanged. I am sorry that Trimble feels that some of his work was not properly acknowledged, but I feel this belief results from his apparent unawareness of my own and my students' published research that predates the initiation of his research in the region and from his apparent misunderstandings of regional variations in geologic and physiographic circumstances. Finally, I agree with his statement (p. 599) that: "It is therefore incumbent on us in our ongoing studies to insure that we obtain all the evidence, sift it thoroughly, report it carefully and give attribution for previous work." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many citizens are sceptical of policies implemented to mitigate climate change. Existing research shows that citizens' populist beliefs are significant determinants of climate scepticism. However, little is known about the underlying factors driving populist opposition to climate policies. To address this gap in the literature, this study develops structural equation models with new ideological measures using a high-quality probability sample of Dutch citizens (2019). The findings show that the relationship between populist attitudes and climate policy opposition is mediated through two anti-elite dispositions: the idea that climate science is unreliable and the belief that politicians exploit climate change for political gain. This relationship holds for left- and right-wing individuals alike. Moreover, a replication of a recent study shows that these findings hold alongside mechanisms rooted in institutional trust. These findings provide important evidence that populists' opposition to climate policy is principally rooted in distrust in political and scientific elites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we propose to answer the following questions: What does the adoption of water saving measures by Spanish households depend on? Which factors have the most influence on water saving behaviour? To this end we have conducted an empirical study in which a binary model (probit/logit) with interaction effects between city size, educational level and climatic area, along with other quantitative and qualitative variables, is estimated using household level data. The results of this estimation, together with the evaluation of probability changes that occur when any of the qualitative factors change, suggest that the level of income, the size of the city where the dwelling is, the educational level of the reference person and the climatic location of the city are factors that influence the attitude towards saving water. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article examines the local outcomes of São Paulo city’s engagement in transnational networks for climate protection. The participation of municipalities in such networks has been an important driver in fostering local initiatives to protect global climate. There have been accounts of many cases of mitigation measures implemented successfully at the local level, demonstrating significant carbon emissions reductions, thus helping national governments in their emissions reductions efforts. However, few studies have explored the linkages between transnational engagement, implementation of subnational climate action, and the actual national commitments in developing countries. This paper assesses the role of local engagement in transnational networks in the adoption and implementation of climate policies and legislation in the city of São Paulo, and its impact on the Brazilian government’s climate action, in the period between 2002 and 2014. São Paulo was an active member of ICLEI’s Cities for Climate Protection campaign and the C40 network during this period. The city was the first government to adopt legislation establishing reduction targets in 2009. However, while transnational action influenced the inception of the city’s climate change policy, it has had limited impact on the implementation of climate action beyond the municipal level. The role of transnational action, in this context, is yet to be determined. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Wei River Basin is a typical arid and semi-arid area of the Yellow River Basin. Quantitative estimates of the contributions of human activities and climate changes in this region will enhance our understanding of the local hydrological mechanism and provide an effective reference for other arid and semi-arid areas of the world in local water resource planning and management. The heuristic segmentation method was used to detect the inflection points of the annual runoff. The slope change ratio of accumulative quantity (SCRAQ) method was applied to compute the relative contributions of human activities and climate changes to the decreasing runoff in the whole basin and the basin above Linjiacun. For the whole basin, when 1960–1969 is selected as the baseline, the contributions of climate changes and human activities in 1970–1993 are 26.47% and 73.53%, respectively, those in 1993–2005 are 23.33% and 76.67%, respectively. When 1970–1993 is selected as the baseline, the contributions of climate and human impacts in 1994–2005 are 18.88% and 81.12%, respectively. The results imply that human activities are the dominant driving factors of runoff reduction, whose effect is increasingly intensifying. Furthermore, in order to verify the contributions of human activities and climate changes based on the SCRAQ method, an approach based on the Budyko hypothesis was used in this paper. The results indicate that the contributions of human activities and climate changes based on the SCRAQ method are consistent with those based on the sensitivity-based method.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents a case study of a cluster of tornadoes produced by tropical cyclone (TC) Ivan in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States on 17-18 September 2004. Ivan produced 118 tornadoes between 15 and 18 September, but 57 of these occurred in a period of only 10 h on the last two days. The number of tornadoes that occurred in this event is anomalous when compared to regional tornado climatology and to other TC tornado events. Furthermore, a significantly large number of the tornadoes, when compared to other TC tornadoes, were rated strong according to the Fujita Scale, and they were anomalously long- and wide-tracked. Ivan was in a synoptically favorable environment when these tornadoes were produced, and the tornadoes occurred in a favorable local-scale environment near a front with spatially overlapping shear and buoyancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on climate-induced migration. We construct a simple theoretical model where, in a first step, climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector, leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders, while in a second step, downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a rich panel dataset, displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960–2000. Findings suggest that in the next few years the climate-induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8.6 per cent and 12.8 per cent, especially from developing countries, where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the temporal variability in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over a drought prone district in India. Long period rainfall data, from 1950 to 2012, were investigated over the district by analysis of anomalies and application of both parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. Decline in annual rainfall is evident in the study area with highest number of below mean rainfall years observed in the recent decade (2000–2009). Only 25% of the annual rainy days span across pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter season, reinforcing the high dependence of local communities on monsoonal rainfall for effective crop growth. Against this, a decreasing trend in monsoonal rainfall is noticed over the years. In conclusion, the present paper argues for district level rainfall studies which will provide local stakeholders with the necessary information for better planning and management of rainfall dependent development sectors, thus resulting in reduced overall socio-economic upheaval of rural communities. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Public health nutritionists rely on anthropometry for nutritional assessment, program planning, and evaluation. Children are usually heavily clothed at high altitudes and in cold climates. Failing to adjust for clothing weight could underestimate malnutrition prevalence. The objective of this paper is to validate an adjustment process for estimating clothing weight and quantify potential misclassification error. In March and September 2009, 293 and 272 children under 2 years of age, respectively, were measured for weight and length in 14 highlands communities in Ecuador. Weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ) and weight-for-height z-scores (WHZ) were compared using clothing-unadjusted weights and two types of clothing-adjusted weights: individual clothing-weights and population-mean clothing-weights. Modelling showed up to 24% of children’s nutritional status and degree of malnutrition were misclassified for WAZ, and 13% for WHZ, when clothing was not taken into account in this cold climate. Compared with the more time-intensive individual clothing-weight adjustment, the population-mean clothing-weight adjustments had high specificity and sensitivity for WAZ. In cold climates, adjusting for population mean clothing weight provides a better estimate of the prevalence of malnutrition to inform appropriate program decisions for addressing underweight. An individual clothing weight adjustment may also be essential to classify a specific child’s nutritional status when acute malnutrition is a concern. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Great Barrier Reef supports significant breeding populations of tropical seabirds; however, recent evidence has indicated declines in seabird populations across some of the most important breeding sites. Evidence for the cause of these significant declines is lacking but is generally thought to result from inadequate food supplies caused by warmer sea surface temperatures associated with climate change. This paper provides the first detailed investigation into the foraging behaviour of Brown Boobies (Sula leucogaster), a species considered to be more susceptible to climate change impacts due to reduced foraging ranges. Fifteen complete foraging trips were recorded from five individuals (three males, two females). Adults typically foraged in shallow inshore reef waters and the mean foraging trip duration was 6.8 ± 2.8 h with a mean foraging range of 14.5 ± 10.1 km and the total distance travelled being 49.5 ± 30.3 km per trip. While most foraging trips occurred during daylight hours, five (33%) trips recorded periods spent at sea at night. The preliminary results presented here suggest that further research across widely dispersed breeding sites and different species investigating the potential drivers of seabird declines in the Great Barrier Reef is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal planners' expectations of climate change play an important role in their assessment of potential risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies. This paper assesses coastal planners' expectations of climate change and compares their estimates to widely referenced climate science projections. It focuses on assessing expectations of the magnitude and uncertainty of global temperature and sea-level change by 2030 and the likelihood of four climate change impacts by the mid-to-late twenty-first century. A web-based questionnaire (n = 137) was used to elicit coastal planner expectations of climate change in three coastal states (Alaska, Florida, and Maryland) across three levels of management (local, state, and non-government organizations). Findings indicate that over half of the planners were unsure of the magnitude of global temperature and sea-level rise (SLR). Among those who responded, planner estimates of the magnitude and uncertainty of global temperature and SLR are higher than climate science projections reviewed in this research. Roughly 80% of all participants believed that each of the four climate impacts were at least ‘more likely than not' to occur. We discuss the consequences of these expectations for how climate risk, vulnerability, and adaptation are managed and suggest pathways for aligning expectations and facilitating adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper concentrates on the effect of courtyard parameters on the shading function of courtyard houses in hot desert climates; BWh based on Köppen climate classification. The ultimate goal is to optimize the designing pattern for a courtyard regarding orientation, dimensions, and proportions, to enhance the shading performance and improve outdoor thermal comfort. For this purpose, 10 historical courtyard houses were selected with geometrical properties and different orientations from the hot desert climate of Kashan in Iran. The three-dimensional numerical model was applied, by Design Builder, to simulate sunlit and shaded areas. A field measurement was conducted on the shading performance of Borujerdi courtyard house in Kashan. A validation study was performed on the numerical model using the physical data and a close agreement was achieved. The shading index that was previously suggested by authors was employed based on hourly average temperature to investigate the correlations between the index and courtyard's orientation and geometrical properties. Results illustrate that the courtyard's design alternatives, particularly length-to-width ratio and height, have influential impacts on shading performance. Finally, some design recommendations for courtyard houses in hot desert regions were extracted to enhance the shading performance and increase the thermal comfort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of international climate change obligations, Gulf Arab states have introduced policies to integrate climate policies into economic development and planning, seeking to maximize clean development opportunities yet at the same time to minimize the threats to their rentier economies caused by sudden shifts away from fossil fuels. This paper assesses the challenges and opportunities for climate policy integration in the Gulf states of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, examining the interaction between their climate policy and their political–economic regimes. It adopts a novel analytical framework that integrates insights from climate policy integration and the political–economic theory of rentier states. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and relevant policy documents, it reveals modest progress in integrating climate policy into economic development plans in the UAE but major impediments to climate policy integration in Oman. Both countries face significant shortfalls in climate-related financial and human resource capacities. Climate policy integration efforts have focused on the energy sector with the purpose of protecting rents from oil exports rather than advancing a low-carbon transformation of their economies. This has created structural ambiguity in the climate policy integration advanced in the UAE and Oman. Key policy insights The availability, quality and accessibility of climate-related data are serious challenges for policy makers in the UAE and Oman. Both countries have evolving institutional architectures conducive to climate policy integration. However, these are more symbolic than substantive, lacking clear policy integration strategies across the governments. The UAE and Oman both face significant shortfalls in climate-related financial and human resource capacities. Support for climate policy integration by the ruling elites in the UAE and Oman is significantly shaped by rentier interests: most climate-related initiatives have addressed the energy sector, aiming to protect rents from oil exports by reducing the domestic dependence on fossil fuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local governments have a key role to play in implementing climate innovations as they have jurisdiction over a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Meeting the Climate Change Challenge (MC3) is the first longitudinal study exploring climate innovation in Canadian municipalities. A tri-university research collaborative, it focuses on British Columbia (BC), whose voluntary efforts to set and meet climate change goals were far more ambitious than those offered by the federal government (and almost any other province in North America at the time). These efforts included introducing a carbon tax and the Climate Action Charter voluntary agreement in 2007. Since then, 187 of the 190 local governments in BC have signed the Charter to take action on climate change. Research in the first phase of MC3explored the dynamics of innovative local responses to the coordinated suite of government legislation, complimentary policy instruments, financial incentives and partnerships with quasi-institutional partners. In the second phase, the 11 original case studies were revisited to explore the nature of transformative change in development paths and indicators of change. Methods include sentiment analysis, decomposition analysis of regional/local emissions, and modelling relationships between climate action co-benefits and trade-offs. This paper provides a synthesis of research outcomes and their implications for environmental governance at multiple scales and the potential of policy innovations to accelerate transformation towards carbon neutral economies. Key policy insights Local governments are on the front line of identifying indicators of change in current development paths and policy innovations to effect the necessary changes for transformation to carbon neutral economies. Barriers to transformational change include lack of coordination or concerted action across multiple scales of governance, electoral cycles and large swings in leadership, and lack of policy coherence across governance levels. Drivers of climate innovation include leadership at multiple levels of governance. Understanding the co-benefits (and trade-offs) of climate actions is important for integrated strategies that achieve broader sustainability goals, as well as accelerating more innovations on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main challenges faced by climate policy makers today is to design and implement policies capable of transferring climate policy goals into sectoral actions towards transformational pathways. Hence, climate policies need to be of cross-cutting character, lead to coherence with sectoral goals and reconcile diverging sectoral interests. Against this background, Mexico has undertaken significant efforts to reform its energy sector, including goals for clean energy and energy efficiency, and the adoption of implementation mechanisms via the Law for Energy Transition of 2015. Furthermore, Mexico has introduced a complex climate governance system, including ambitious mitigation goals. In this paper, we applied concepts of climate policy integration to analyse whether integration between the policy subsystems of energy and climate change occurred in Mexico in terms of political discourse and negotiation, policy goals and instruments, and implementation; as well as the factors at work that lead to climate policy integration. We find that on the level of political discourse and negotiation, an integration process between the energy and climate subsystems occurred, influenced by the availability and market maturity of clean energy, mitigation scenarios and external events, such as the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference. However, a combination of decisions on integrated climate-energy policy outputs, and preparing the public administration system for the implementation of integrated policies, is needed to enable appropriate institutional mandates, budgets and instruments and avoid institutional fragmentation. Omitting to take these decisions was identified as a major shortcoming in the political-administrative system, preventing higher levels of climate policy integration. Key policy insights The Mexican Energy Transition Law shows that policy windows can be used by policy makers to attain integrated energy-climate policy outputs and to advance national mitigation and energy sector goals. In order to make full use of integrated policy decisions, the administrative system has to follow suit by also introducing mandates, budgets and policy instruments of an integrative character. Climate policy integration in practice implies identifying and using the full potential of policy windows in order to ensure the raising of ambition under the Paris Agreement as well as achievement of sectoral policy objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability and change present significant challenges for island communities in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Understanding how climate science can be useful for island communities requires knowledge of decision-makers, their climate-sensitive decisions, and the context in which the decisions are being made. In this paper we report on an interdisciplinary research and outreach effort called the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment. We describe potential impacts from the changing climate for island communities, including food and water security, disaster preparedness, human migration and national security. We highlight transferable lessons learned related to building resiliency, engaging innovative leadership and supporting integrated research and outreach. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

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