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Europe and the Mediterranean are considered climate change hot spots. This is the reason why this paper focuses on the analysis of the trends of essential climate variables in a Mediterranean country, Greece. The analyzed period is 1991–2020, and the dataset used is ERA5-Land (produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which has global coverage and an improved resolution of ~9 × 9 km compared to other datasets. Significant climatic changes across Greece have been put in evidence during the analyzed period. More specifically, the country averaged a 30-year trend of temperature of +1.5 °C, locally exceeding +2 °C, and this increasing trend is positively correlated with the distance of the areas from the coasts. Accordingly, the number of frost days has decreased throughout the country. In terms of rainfall, a major part of Greece has experienced increasing annual rainfall amounts, while 86% of the Greek area has experienced a positive trend of days with heavy rainfall (>20 mm). Finally, a multiple signal of the trend of consecutive dry days was found (statistically non-significant in the major part of Greece). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much research has raised concerns about how a warming planet will interact with natural cyclical climatic variations, and the implications for the resilience and vulnerability of coastal communities. As the anticipated effects of climate change will continue to intensify, it is necessary to understand the response and adaptive capacity of individuals and communities. Coastal communities in Ecuador have evolved in an environment of such cyclical climatic variations referred to as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña. These climatic events are frequently characterized by extreme variations in precipitation, violent storms, and coastal flooding during El Niño and lowered sea water temperatures and drought during La Niña. This paper draws on survey data and long-term ethnographic research in Ecuadorian coastal communities to explore how fishers understand the impacts of ENSO and implications for their livelihood decisions and resilience to climate variability. The results suggest that fishers along the coast of Ecuador understand and respond differentially to the impacts of ENSO depending on social, cultural, environmental, and geographical factors. These differential levels of response suggest that livelihood diversification may uphold social resilience, which has implications for how coastal communities may adapt to the increasingly harsh weather conditions predicted by many climate models. Our findings further suggest that the impacts of El Niño are more salient than the impacts of La Niña; these findings have significant implications for fisheries management and science communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of tephra layers in maar lake sediments of the Eifel shows 14 well-visible tephra during the last glacial cycle from the Holocene to the Eemian (0–130,000 yr b2k). These tephra were analyzed for their petrographic composition, which allows us to connect several tephra to eruption sites. All tephra were dated by application of the ELSA-20 chronology, developed using the late Pleistocene infilled maar lake of Auel and the Holocene lake Holzmaar (0–60,000 yr b2k). We extend the ELSA-20 chronology with this paper for the millennia of 60,000–130,000 yr b2k (ELSA-23 chronology), which is based on the infilled maar lake records from Dehner, Hoher List, and Jungferweiher. The evaluation of the tephra from the entire last glacial cycle shows that all 14 tephra were close to interstadial warming of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. In particular, phreatomagmatic maar eruptions were systematically associated with Heinrich events or C-events. These events represent times of warming of the Southern Hemisphere, global sea level rise, and CO2 increase, which predate the abrupt interstadial warming events of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchroneity indicates a physical relationship between endogenic and exogenic processes. Changes in the lithospheric stress field in response to changes in continental ice loads have already been suggested as a potential candidate to explain the exogenic forcing of endogenic processes. The chronology of volcanic activity in the Eifel demonstrates that intraplate mantle plumes are also affected by the exogenic forcing of endogenic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are "out of phase". We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development of ocean measurement technologies can improve monitoring of the global Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and Heat Storage Rate (HSR) that serve as early-warning indices for climate-critical circulation processes such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and provide real-time OHC assessments for tropical cyclone forecast models. This paper examines the potential of remotely measuring ocean temperature profiles using a simulated Brillouin lidar for calculating ocean HSR. A series of data analysis ('Nature') and Observational Systems Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were carried out using 26 years (1992–2017) of daily mean temperature and salinity outputs from the ECCOv4r4 ocean circulation model. The focus of this study is to compare various OSSEs carried out to measure the HSR using a simulated Brillouin lidar against the HSR calculated from the ECCOv4r4 model results. Brillouin lidar simulations are used to predict the probability of detecting a return lidar signal under varying sampling strategies. Correlations were calculated for the difference between sampling strategies. These comparisons ignore the measurement errors inherent in a Brillouin lidar. Brillouin lidar technology and instruments are known to contain numerous, instrument-dependent errors and remain an engineering challenge. A significant decrease in the ability to measuring global ocean HSRs is a consequence of measuring ocean temperature from nadir-pointing instruments that can only take measurements along-track. Other sources of errors include the inability to fully profile ocean regions with deep mixed layers, such as the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, and ocean regions with high light attenuation levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is causing poleward expansion of species ranges. Temperate seas, in particular, are undergoing a process known as 'tropicalisation', i.e., the combination of sea-water warming and establishment of southern species. The Ligurian Sea is one of the coldest sectors of the Mediterranean and has thus been characterized by a dearth of warm-temperate species and a comparative abundance of cold-temperate species. This paper uses a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and new records of thermophilic fish species to reconsider the biogeography of the Ligurian Sea. SST has risen by about 0.7 °C on average between 1948 and 2023, but two phases may be distinguished: a cool one (ended in the mid-1980s) and a warm one (still ongoing); the latter phase shows alternating periods of rapid warming and comparatively stationary temperature. The arrival of thermophilic species coincided with the periods of rapid warming; some of these species were established in the subsequent stationary periods. Heatwaves and climate-related diseases associated with the periods of rapid warming have caused mass mortalities of autochthonous species. Our knowledge on the biogeography of the Ligurian Sea was established during the cool phase; the present situation, however, calls for re-defining the chorological spectrum of the Ligurian Sea biota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones have resulted in casualties and economic losses in the areas surrounding the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Thus, a comprehensive investigation of these tropical cyclones holds vital implications for disaster preparedness and mitigation. This paper compares the occurrence of storms in the last two decades, i.e., 2002–2011 and 2012–2021, and results reveal that such storms exhibited predominantly a northwesterly track towards the northwestern BoB, with a severer intensity but equal total storm frequencies. Over the past decade, a southeast-northwest pathway (SNP) was identified, demonstrating a higher incidence of severe tropical cyclones (STC, with lifetime maximum intensity ≥ 64 knots) over the BoB. Further analysis of the changes in the environmental conditions between these two decades indicates that a southeasterly anomaly in the steering flow contributed to the formation of the SNP. During the same period, the more favorable oceanic conditions during the last decade, including higher sea surface temperatures, a greater upper ocean heat content, a thicker warm water layer, and a thicker barrier layer beneath the SNP, favored the development of these storms by providing more heat energy to the storms. The atmospheric conditions, including increased air-sea heat fluxes, moisture, and instability within the lower troposphere, as well as reduced vertical wind shear, facilitated the development of convection within these storm systems. These favorable conditions improved the potential for storm development into STCs and elevated the risk of the northwestern BoB being impacted by more destructive storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth's oceans serve as vast heat storage reservoirs and the ocean currents, forming a heat transfer zone, act as a buffer for climate change. The oceans play a crucial role in the water cycle, carbon cycle, and nitrogen cycle, interacting with the atmosphere. However, the increasing occurrence of heatwaves in recent years has disrupted the stability of the oceans and affected their function as a global thermostat. This paper examines relevant literature from the Web of Science database spanning from 1996 to 2023. Our analysis reveals the evolving research hotspots regarding the impact of heatwaves on ocean carbon sinks, progressing from "carbon dioxide - carbon emissions - ocean - seawater - organic matter - marine sediment" over the past decades. Keyword frequency and centrality analysis indicate a deepening focus in this field of study. The research areas primarily revolve around climate change, carbon dioxide, ocean variability, the influence of high temperatures on the carbon cycle, the weakening of the ocean carbon sink function, and ocean temperature. This study summarizes research findings on the mechanisms by which high temperature heatwaves affect ocean carbon sinks, alterations in ocean carbon cycle patterns, their impacts on marine ecosystems, and factors influencing seawater temperature and heatwave occurrence. Finally, the paper discusses novel findings in this field and proposes countermeasures to enhance ocean sink capacity amidst the warming trend. • The research hotspots have shifted from "carbon dioxide-carbon emissions-ocean-seawater-organic matter-marine sediment". • The study analyzes mechanisms by which high-temperature heat waves affect ocean carbon sinks and identifies influencing factors. • The research presents novel findings in this area and proposes strategies to enhance the capacity of ocean sinks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic fluctuations in sea surface temperature within the North Atlantic Ocean (NA-SST) exert a pivotal influence on global climate change. Yet, the specific impacts of these variations on the temperature shifts within the Qinling-Bashan Mountains (QBM) of China, remain to be fully elucidated. Furthermore, a debate surrounding the manifestation of the Little Ice Age (LIA) within the QBM is ongoing, primarily due to the scarcity of reliable, long-term, and high-resolution temperature records. To bridge these knowledge gaps, in this paper, we present a ∼ 250-year temperature reconstruction (Tmax 11 – 7) developed based on a tree-ring-width chronology from the QBM. The new reconstruction not only aligns with a local winter temperature reconstruction based on historical document evidence, but also reveals robust regional and hemispheric temperature signals. Intriguingly, the study shows that the warming trend observed in the QBM since the Industrial Era is less pronounced than that witnessed across China and the Northern Hemisphere. The Tmax 11 – 7 reconstruction provides a glimpse into the final stages of the LIA, highlighting a relatively colder 19 th century followed by a warmer 20 th century. Notably, the warming trend post-1970s remains within the bounds of the 250-year temperature framework. The research further uncovers that NA-SST has predominantly governed the QBM's temperature fluctuations over the past centuries, as evidenced by the tight positive correlation between Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)/Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and Tmax 11 – 7. However, this dominant influence of NA-SST was temporarily subdued between 1900 and 1930 CE due to the interference of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This finding serves as a reminder that future temperature projections for the QBM must account not only for the primary role of NA-SST but also the modulating effects of the PDO. The study is essential for shaping effective environmental management and adaptation strategies in the region. • A ∼ 250-year temperature reconstruction is developed using tree rings from the QBM. • The QBM saw the last stage of the LIA and recent warming is within historical frame. • North Atlantic SST (NA-SST) played a positive and dominant role on QBM'S temperature changes. • Weakened NA-SST's impact on temperature in 1900–1930 CE was due to PDO's interference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual ocean–atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific, greatly influencing the global climate system. Seasonal phase locking, which means that ENSO events usually peak in boreal winter, is a distinctive feature of ENSO. In model future projections, the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) amplitude in winter shows no significant change with a large intermodel spread. However, whether and how ENSO phase locking will respond to global warming are not fully understood. In this study, using Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) projections, we found that the seasonality of ENSO events, especially its peak phase, has advanced under global warming. This phenomenon corresponds to the seasonal difference in the changes in the ENSO SST amplitude with an enhanced (weakened) amplitude from boreal summer to autumn (winter). Mixed layer ocean heat budget analysis revealed that the advanced ENSO seasonality is due to intensified positive meridional advective and thermocline feedback during the ENSO developing phase and intensified negative thermal damping during the ENSO peak phase. Furthermore, the seasonal variation in the mean El Niño–like SST warming in the tropical Pacific favors a weakened zonal advective feedback in boreal autumn–winter and earlier decay of ENSO. The advance of the ENSO peak phase is also found in most CMIP5/6 models that simulate the seasonal phase locking of ENSO well in the present climate. Thus, even though the amplitude response in the winter shows no model consensus, ENSO also significantly changes during different stages under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores how future SST warming in remote ocean basins may affect the western North Pacific (WNP) wet season climate by applying a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model to conduct a series of numerical experiments. A marked precipitation and tropical cyclone (TC) activity reduction, as well as enhanced anticyclonic circulation, in the WNP is projected in AMIP experiments forced by SST change in a future warming scenario. The sensitivity experiments reveal that various SST warming phenomena (e.g., in the global SST warming pattern, the tropical ocean belt, the Indian Ocean, the tropical Atlantic, and the subtropical northeast Pacific) and the increase in greenhouse gas concentration could weaken the precipitation, TC activity, and circulation. By contrast, the SST warming in the WNP and eastern equatorial Pacific has opposite and mixed effects, respectively, and tends to weakly offset the dominant influences of remote ocean warming. These results indicate that the WNP, being the epicenter of the global teleconnection of divergent and rotational flow, is susceptible to the influence of the SST warming in remote ocean basins. The remote forcing as projected in future scenarios would overwhelm the enhancing effect of local SST warming and weaken the circulation, convection, and TC activity in the WNP. These findings further the understanding of how the decreased precipitation and enhanced subtropical high in the WNP may be easily triggered by remote SST warming as revealed in the AMIP-type simulations. How this effect would be affected by air–sea coupling needs further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eurasia is a sensitive and high-risk region for global climate changes, where climate anomalies significantly influence natural ecosystems, human health, and economic development. The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature anomaly is crucial to interannual precipitation variations in Eurasia. Several studies have focused on the link between the NAT and climate anomalies in winter and spring. However, the mechanism by which the summer NAT impacts climate anomalies in Eurasia remains unclear. This study examines how the NAT impacts interannual variations of summer precipitation in mid–high-latitude Eurasia. Precipitation variations are associated with the atmospheric teleconnection triggered by the NAT. When the NAT is in its positive phase, the anomalous atmospheric diabatic heating over the North Atlantic excites an equivalent-barotropic Rossby wave train response that propagates eastward toward Eurasia, resulting in atmospheric circulation anomalies over the region. The combined effects of atmospheric circulation, radiative forcing, and water vapor transport anomalies lead to decreased precipitation across northern Europe and central Eurasia, with higher precipitation anomalies over northeast Asia. Finally, numerical experiments verify that the summer NAT excites atmospheric teleconnections that propagate downstream, affecting precipitation anomalies in mid–high-latitude Eurasia. This study provides a scientific basis for predicting Eurasian summer precipitation and strengthening disaster management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 2022, North America experienced an unprecedented extreme cold event. However, the underlying physical mechanisms of this cold wave, and the extent to which it is driven by internal variability or external forcing, are not fully understood. Using ERA5 reanalysis data and the HadGEM3‐A‐N216 attribution simulations, we identified internal variability as the main cause, contributing −5.14 K to surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in North America. External forcing slightly mitigated the cold by 0.42 K. An internally generated wave train from the North Pacific, influenced in combination by Pacific‐North American (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) teleconnection patterns, initiated this intense cyclonic event, contributing −2.18 K and −2.12 K to SAT anomalies, respectively. La Niña‐like sea surface temperature anomalies amplified this wave train and resultant cold wave. Additionally, excessive snow cover in the previous November also intensified the December cold anomalies by enhancing surface albedo and reducing solar radiation. Plain Language Summary: In December 2022, North America was hit by an exceptionally severe cold event. Scientists have been trying to understand the reasons behind this cold wave. Using detailed weather data and climate models, researchers found that natural climate variability played a major role, causing temperatures to drop by about 5.14 degrees Celsius. On the other hand, external factors like human‐induced climate change had a minor effect, slightly reducing the severity of the cold by 0.42 degrees Celsius. The study identified an atmospheric wave train pattern, originating from the North Pacific and moving toward North America, which played a crucial role in triggering this extreme weather. Further investigations showed that this wave train was influenced by specific large‐scale weather patterns in the Pacific region, namely the Pacific‐North American (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) patterns, which contributed to the cold temperatures by approximately 2.18 and 2.12 degrees Celsius, respectively. Additionally, colder‐than‐normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical central Pacific, associated with La Niña, strengthened the wave train. Internal thermodynamical processes, such as increased snow cover, also slightly intensified the cold wave by reflecting more sunlight and reducing the amount of solar energy reaching the surface. Key Points: Internal variability triggers 2022 December extreme cold wave in North AmericaPNA and NPO are two key teleconnections responsible for this extreme cold waveSnow cover‐SAT feedback intensifies this extreme cold wave [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional hydrological sensitivity (i.e., precipitation change per degree local surface warming) contributes substantially to the uncertainty in future precipitation projections over tropical oceans. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of relative precipitation (P*, precipitation divided by the basin average precipitation) to local sea surface temperature (SST) change by dissecting it into three components, namely the sensitivity of P* to relative SST (SSTrel, SST minus the tropical mean SST) changes, the sensitivity of P* to surface convergence changes, and the sensitivity of surface convergence to SST gradient changes. We show that the relationships between P* and SSTrel, and between P*, surface convergence, and SST gradients are largely constant during climate change. This allows us to constrain regional hydrological sensitivity based on present‐day SST‐precipitation relationships. The sensitivity of surface convergence to SST gradient changes is a main source of uncertainty in regional hydrological sensitivity and is likely underestimated in GCMs. Plain Language Summary: Understanding how precipitation will change over tropical oceans is important because these changes influence the atmospheric circulation, which in turn affects the global climate and weather patterns. Climate models disagree on their projections of precipitation changes over tropical oceans in part due to a lack of understanding on how precipitation should respond to a given amount of local surface warming. We find that the sensitivity of precipitation to future changes in local sea surface temperature (which is commonly referred to as regional hydrological sensitivity) largely depends on the present‐day relationship between precipitation and local sea surface temperature, as well as that between precipitation and the spatial gradient in sea surface temperature, and both relationships are observable and thus can serve as constraints. We find that inter‐model differences in regional hydrological sensitivity result primarily from differences in the response of surface winds to sea surface temperature gradient changes. Key Points: Regional hydrological sensitivity is an important source of uncertainty in rainfall projections over tropical oceansRegional hydrological sensitivity can be constrained by components of rainfall‐temperature relationship that stay constant during warmingUncertainty in regional hydrological sensitivity originates largely from surface convergence sensitivity to temperature gradient changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence of large‐scale biodiversity degradation in marine ecosystems has been reported worldwide, yet most research has focused on few species of interest or on limited spatiotemporal scales. Here we assessed the spatial and temporal changes in the taxonomic and functional composition of fish communities in European seas over the last 25 years (1994–2019). We then explored how these community changes were linked to environmental gradients and fishing pressure. We show that the spatial variation in fish species composition is more than two times higher than the temporal variation, with a marked spatial continuum in taxonomic composition and a more homogenous pattern in functional composition. The regions warming the fastest are experiencing an increasing dominance and total abundance of r‐strategy fish species (lower age of maturity). Conversely, regions warming more slowly show an increasing dominance and total abundance of K‐strategy species (high trophic level and late reproduction). Among the considered environmental variables, sea surface temperature, surface salinity and chlorophyll‐a most consistently influenced communities' spatial patterns, while bottom temperature and oxygen had the most consistent influence on temporal patterns. Changes in communities' functional composition were more closely related to environmental conditions than taxonomic changes. Our study demonstrates the importance of integrating community‐level species traits across multi‐decadal scales and across a large region to better capture and understand ecosystem‐wide responses and provides a different lens on community dynamics that could be used to support sustainable fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has shown that there is a projected increase in the frequency of strong positive Indian Ocean dipole (spIOD) events in terms of both sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation. However, it is not clear whether the spIOD events defined by SST and precipitation, hereafter referred to as SST-spIOD and Pr-spIOD events, respectively, will increase at the same pace under greenhouse warming. Using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and CMIP6 that can reasonably simulate the spIOD events, here we find that the occurrence of Pr-spIOD events increases much more than that of SST-spIOD events (+217% vs +77%) under the future high-emission scenario. The diverse response stems from a notably large increase in the spIOD events with strong rainfall but moderate SST anomalies (Pr-only spIOD), which is facilitated by a change in the local meridional Hadley circulation induced by land–sea thermal contrast in addition to the background mean-state SST warming. For the spIOD events with prominent anomalies in both rainfall and SST (concurrent spIOD), their occurrences are projected to increase, but their average SST amplitude is projected to weaken. The increased occurrence is associated with a westward-extended structural change induced by mean linear zonal advection feedbacks, while the weakened event-average SST amplitude results from a more stabilized atmosphere and coincides with the projected reduction in IOD SST skewness. Our results suggest that IOD-related mitigation strategies should consider the diverse responses of different kinds of spIOD events to greenhouse warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation events induced by tropical cyclones have increased frequency and intensity, significantly impacting human socioeconomic activities and ecological environments. This study systematically examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of these events across Hainan Island and their influencing factors using GsMAP satellite precipitation data and tropical cyclone track data. The results indicate that while the frequency of typhoon events in Hainan decreased by 0.3 events decade−1 from 1949 to 2020, extreme precipitation events have increased significantly since 2000, especially in the eastern and central regions. Different typhoon tracks have distinct impacts on the island, with Track 1 (Northeastern track) and Track 2 (Central track) primarily affecting the western and central regions and Track 3 (Southern track) impacting the western region. The impact of typhoon precipitation on extreme events increased over time, being the greatest in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Incorporating typhoon precipitation data shortened the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation in the central and eastern regions. Diurnal peaks occur in the early morning and late evening, primarily affecting coastal areas. Typhoon duration (CC_max = 0.850) and wind speed (CC_max = 0.369) positively correlated with extreme precipitation, while the pressure was negatively correlated. High sea surface temperature areas were closely associated with extreme precipitation events. The atmospheric circulation indices showed a significant negative correlation with extreme precipitation, particularly in the western and central regions. ENSO events, especially sea surface temperature changes in the Niño 1 + 2 region (−0.340 to −0.406), have significantly influenced typhoon precipitation characteristics. These findings can inform region-specific disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for Hainan Island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change has profound effects on species' distributions, and it is crucial to understand how well physiological limits correspond to distribution patterns to provide realistic estimations of future range shifts and/or extinctions. Seaweeds are foundation species of global coastal ecosystems, and sea surface temperature is a main predictor to explain their distributions and redistributions under global warming. We here test the hypothesis that, in contrast to other marine ectotherms, physiological knowledge of temperature niches is a weak predictor for seaweed distributions. Location: Global. Time Period: Present (1984–2019). Taxa: Seaweeds. Methods: We analysed the predictive power of physiological temperature limits to predict real‐world distributions in 126 globally distributed seaweed species with linear and generalized linear mixed models. Results: In 72% of the species, there was a difference of ≥|2|°C between the physiological and the realized thermal limits. Both, thermal underfilling (distributional thermal limits narrower than the physiological limits) and overfilling (distributional thermal limits wider than the physiological limits) were present. Thus, in only 28% of the species the physiological limits corresponded to the distributional limits. While heat‐tolerance is a significant predictor for upper distributional temperature limits, we found no relationship between cold‐tolerance and lower distributional temperature limits and the latter two seem to be independent. Main Conclusions: Physiological thermal limits have limited predictive power for seaweed distributions and deviations may be large. Especially cold‐tolerances are a weak predictor, and forecasting of migrations under changing global conditions (e.g. towards the poles) will need special attention. This indicates that responses towards climate change might be highly variable between seaweed species and difficult to predict. Further, nearly 60% of the investigated species had populations which are close to or beyond their reported upper survival limits and are thus probably under threat of eradication by elevation of sea surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic has experienced greatly decreased sea ice and increased ocean temperatures in recent decades but there is a paucity of biological time‐series data allowing assessment of resulting temporal variation in the region's marine ecosystems. Seabirds, as highly mobile and highly visible, upper trophic‐level predators, can be valuable monitors of modifications in marine ecosystems, especially for regions lacking commercial fisheries or regular oceanographic sampling. Since 1975, we have studied annually an Arctic Alaskan colony of Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii), an ice‐obligate diving seabird, specializing on Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary forage fish of the ice‐associated cryopelagic ecosystem. Using multi‐state capture–mark–recapture models, matrix population models, and perturbation analysis, we quantified the environmental and demographic drivers of population change from 1980 to 2019 for the individually marked population. The colony increased rapidly, from <20 to >200 breeding pairs from 1975 to 1990 in response to increased availability of nesting cavities, before experiencing intermittent declines to <50 pairs in 2021. Immigration and apparent survival were the primary demographic parameters affecting population growth with sea ice extent in late summer and fall the primary environmental driver. The initial growth occurred during a period of primarily negative winter Arctic Oscillations (WAO) and extensive summer sea ice. The decline began when an extremely positive WAO in 1989/1990 initiated changes in atmospheric and oceanographic circulation causing major reductions in summer sea ice throughout the region. The three‐decade decline in the population saw plateaus or minor growth with increasing frequency of negative WAOs and increasing declines following two previously identified "tipping points" in sea ice loss. Breeding success at the study colony declined with decreased availability of Arctic cod due to sea ice loss and increasing sea surface temperature and is presumed to have occurred at the source colonies for immigrants where similar oceanographic changes were occurring. Quasi‐extinction of the colony (reduction to <25 pairs) is predicted within the next two decades. The sensitivity of Mandt's black guillemot to multi‐decadal changes in the Arctic's cryopelagic ecosystem makes it an excellent sentinel species for the region with its recent collapse having dire implications for the Arctic Ocean's constituent species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The proposed tropical cyclone model is completely driven by a set of environmental variables. • This model reproduces the spatial and temporal characteristics of observed tropical cyclones. • The model achieves remarkable balance between computational complexity and efficiency. • This model will provide decision-makers with valuable information regarding potential wind-induced hazards. • When future climate data are fed into this model, the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones can be evaluated. This paper presents an environment-driven tropical cyclone (TC) model for the Western North Pacific basin, which comprises a revised Poisson regression genesis model, a tailored beta-advection track model, and a fast intensity model. The TC model reproduces the temporal and spatial distributions of genesis events, the motion pattern of tracks, as well as the intensity evolutions along tracks. Risk analyses for Hong Kong and along the southeast coastline of mainland China demonstrate that this model can simulate extreme TC events with high fidelity. And the Gaussian mixture model outperforms the Frank Copula in approximating the joint distributions of the annual maximum wind speeds and the corresponding wind directions. This model is driven by a set of environmental variables including relative vorticity, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, potential intensity, sub mixed layer depth stratification, mixture layer depth and so on. This enables the model to not only reproduce historical records, but also make predictions for future TC behaviors under climate change with combination of global climate models. Besides, the computational efficiency of the TC model is comparable to traditional purely statistical models. The proposed model can also be coupled with other natural hazard models to conduct multi-hazard analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE; ~183 Mya) was a globally significant carbon-cycle perturbation linked to widespread deposition of organic-rich sediments, massive volcanic CO2 release, marine faunal extinction, sea-level rise, a crisis in carbonate production related to ocean acidification, and elevated seawater temperatures. Despite recognition of the T-OAE as a potential analog for future ocean deoxygenation, current knowledge on the severity of global ocean anoxia is limited largely to studies of the trace element and isotopic composition of black shales, which are commonly affected by local processes. Here, we present the first carbonate-based uranium isotope (δ238U) record of the T-OAE from open marine platform limestones of the southeastern Tethys Ocean as a proxy for global seawater redox conditions. A significant negative δ238U excursion (~0.4‰) is recorded just prior to the onset of the negative carbon isotope excursion comprised within the T-OAE, followed by a long-lived recovery of δ238U values, thus confirming that the T-OAE represents a global expansion of marine anoxia. Using a Bayesian inverse isotopic mass balance model, we estimate that anoxic waters covered ~6 to 8% of the global seafloor during the peak of the T-OAE, which represents 28 to 38 times the extent of anoxia in the modern ocean. These data, combined with δ238U-based estimates of seafloor anoxic area for other CO2-driven Phanerozoic OAEs, suggest a common response of ocean anoxia to carbon release, thus improving prediction of future anthropogenically induced ocean deoxygenation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy rainfall under the conditions of the changing climate has recently garnered considerable attention. The statistics on heavy daily rainfall offer vital information for assessing present and future extreme events and for clarifying the impacts of global climate variability and change, working to form a favorable background. By analyzing a set of large-ensemble simulations using a global atmospheric model, this study demonstrated that two different physical processes in global climate variability control the interannual fluctuations in the 99th- and 90th-percentile values of summertime daily rainfall (i.e., the potential amounts) on Kyushu Island in western Japan. The 90th-percentile values were closely related to large-scale horizontal moisture transport anomalies due to changes in the subtropical high in the northwestern Pacific, which was usually accompanied by basin-scale warming in the Indian Ocean subsequent to the wintertime El Niño events. The contributions of the sea surface temperatures over the northern Indian Ocean and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean showed low-frequency modulations, mainly due to the influences of the global warming tendency and the interdecadal variability in the climate system, respectively. In contrast, tropical cyclone activity played a major role in changing the 99th-percentile value. The potentials of both the tropical cyclone intensity and the existence density fluctuated, largely owing to the summertime sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific, which can be modulated by the El Niño diversity on interdecadal timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barringtonia racemosa (L.) Spreng. (Lecythidaceae), a crucial species in mangrove ecosystems, is facing endangerment primarily due to habitat loss. To address this issue, research is imperative to identify suitable conservation habitats for the endangered B. racemosa within mangrove ecosystems. The utilization of the optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model has been instrumental in predicting potential suitable regions based on global distribution points and environmental variables under current and future climates conditions. The study revealed that the potential distribution area of B. racemosa closely aligns with its existing range with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) greater than 0.95. The Jackknife, AUC, percent contribution (PC), and permutation importance (PI) tests were employed alongside the optimized MaxEnt model to examine the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of B. racemosa. The primary factors identified as significant predictors of B. racemosa distribution included the average temperature of the ocean surface (Temperature), average salinity of the ocean surface (Salinity), precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4), and isothermality (Bio3). Currently, the habitat range of B. racemosa is predominantly found in tropical and subtropical coastal regions near the equator. The total suitable habitat area measures 246.03 km2, with high, medium, low, and unsuitable areas covering 3.90 km2, 8.57 km2, 16.94 km2, and 216.63 km2, respectively. These areas represent 1.58%, 3.48%, 6.88%, and 88.05% of the total habitat area, respectively. The potential distribution area of B. racemosa demonstrated significant variations under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), particularly in Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Both low and high suitable areas experienced a slight increase in distribution. In summary, the research suggests that B. racemosa primarily flourishes in coastal regions of tropical and subtropical areas near the equator, with temperature and precipitation playing a significant role in determining its natural range. This study offers important implications for the preservation and control of B. racemosa amidst habitat degradation and climate change threats. Through a comprehensive understanding of the specific habitat needs of B. racemosa and the implementation of focused conservation measures, efforts can be made to stabilize and rejuvenate its populations in their natural environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific basin, is an important low-frequency climate phenomenon. Leveraging data spanning from 1871 to 2010, we employed machine learning models to predict the PDO based on variations in several climatic indices: the Niño3.4, North Pacific index (NPI), sea surface height (SSH), and thermocline depth over the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) region (SSH_KOE and Ther_KOE), as well as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). A comparative analysis of the temporal and spatial performance of six machine learning models was conducted, revealing that the Gated Recurrent Unit model demonstrated superior predictive capabilities compared to its counterparts, through the temporal and spatial analysis. To better understand the inner workings of the machine learning models, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was adopted to present the drivers behind the model's predictions and dynamics for modeling the PDO. Our findings indicated that the Niño3.4, North Pacific index, and SSH_KOE were the three most pivotal features in predicting the PDO. Furthermore, our analysis also revealed that the Niño3.4, AMO, and Ther_KOE indices were positively associated with the PDO, whereas the NPI, SSH_KOE, and AO indices exhibited negative correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS), an organic volatile sulfide produced from Dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), exerts a significant impact on the global climate change. Utilizing published literature data spanning from 2005 to 2020, a BP neural network (BPNN) model of the surface seawater DMS in the Yellow and East China Sea (YECS) was developed to elucidate the influence of various marine factors on the DMS cycle. Results indicated that the six parameters inputted BPNN model, that include the time (month), latitude and longitude, sea-surface chlorophyll a (Chl-a), sea-surface temperature (SST), and sea-surface salinity (SSS), yielded the optimized simulation results (R2 = 0.71). The optimized estimation of surface seawater DMS in the YECS were proved to be closely aligned with the observed data across all seasons, which demonstrated the model’s robust applicability. DMS concentration in surface seawater were found to be affected by multiple factors such as Chl-a and SST. Comparative analysis of the three environmental parameters revealed that Chl-a exhibited the most significant correlation with surface seawater DMS concentration in the YECS (R2 = 0.20). This underscores the pivotal role of chlorophyll in phytoplankton photosynthesis and DMS production, emphasizing its importance as a nonnegligible factor in the study of DMS and its sulfur derivatives. Furthermore, surface seawater DMS concentration in the YECS exhibited positive correlations with Chl-a and SST, while displaying a negative correlation with SSS. The DMS concentration in the YECS show substantial seasonal variations, with the maximum value (5.69 nmol/L) in summer followed in decreasing order by spring (3.96 nmol/L), autumn (3.18 nmol/L), and winter (1.60 nmol/L). In the YECS, there was a gradual decrease of DMS concentration from the nearshore to the offshore, especially with the highest DMS concentration concentrated in the Yangtze River Estuary Basin and the south-central coastal part off the Zhejiang Province. Apart from being largely composed by the release of large amounts of nutrients from anthropogenic activities and changes in ocean temperature, the spatial and temporal variability of DMS may be driven by additional physicochemical parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT, ca. 40–33 Ma) marks a transformation from a largely ice-free to an icehouse climate mode that is well recorded by oxygen-stable isotopes and sea surface temperature proxies. Opening of the Southern Ocean gateways and decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been considered as factors in this global environmental transformation and the growth of ice sheets in Antarctica during the Cenozoic. A more comprehensive understanding is still needed of the interplay between forcing versus response, the correlation among environmental changes, and the involved feedback mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal variation in export productivity using biogenic Ba (bio- Ba) from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites in the Southern Ocean, focusing on possible mechanisms that controlled them as well as the correlation of export productivity changes to changes in the global carbon cycle. We document two high export productivity events in the Southern Ocean during the late Eocene (ca. 37 and 33.5 Ma) that correlate to proposed gateway-driven changes in regional circulation and to changes in global atmospheric pCO2 levels. Our findings suggest that paleoceanographic changes following Southern Ocean gateway openings, along with more variable increases in circulation driven by episodic Antarctic ice sheet expansion, enhanced export production in the Southern Ocean from the late Eocene through early Oligocene. These factors may have played a role in episodic atmospheric carbon dioxide reduction, contributing to Antarctic glaciation during the Eocene–Oligocene transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of global warming on lightning flash rates remains relatively unknown. In this study, the South China Sea (SCS) and the surrounding areas within Southeast Asia were selected to examine the long‐term trend and future projection of lightning activity based on the currently longest satellite‐based lightning data set available and climate models. Our study revealed a reduction in the observed lightning flash rates around the SCS, with a linear trend of −0.11 fl km−2 yr−2 during 1996–2013. In contrast, the precipitation around the SCS exhibited an increasing trend and was negatively correlated with the local lightning flash rate. The sea surface temperature gradient over equatorial Pacific Ocean, latent heat flux over the equatorial Indian Ocean, local convective available potential energy, precipitation and aerosol changes collectively accounted for 82% of the variance in the lightning fluctuations over the SCS and Southeast Asia. Multiple linear regression proxies of lightning flash rates were constructed and applied to the climate models. The models indicated that lightning activity around the SCS is projected to intensify by 10% and 12% by the end of the 21st century under SSP245 and SSP370, respectively. Plain Language Summary: The projection of future changes in lightning activity is uncertain owing to various factors, and different regions exhibit distinct trajectories. In this study, the focus was on the South China Sea (SCS) and Southeast Asia, and past variations in lightning activity was examined and used to predict future variations in lightning activity. Employing a multiple linear regression approach, we identified the large‐scale thermodynamic drivers and local environmental factors that influence lightning activity around the SCS. The research findings indicated a reduction in lightning activity over the past few decades over the SCS and Southeast Asia region. The simulation results indicate that in the future under ongoing global warming, regional lightning activity will intensify. Key Points: Lightning activity and precipitation show opposing regional trends around the South China Sea (SCS)Remote thermodynamic and local environmental factors both contribute to the variability in lightning around the SCSUnder future climate change scenarios, lightning activity around the SCS is projected to gradually increase [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the repercussions of climate change and irrigation timing on groundwater contamination necessitates thorough examination of the fluctuations in seawater and groundwater recharge temperature. This study introduces an innovative numerical approach to analyze groundwater salinity and temperature dynamics across three distinct scenarios using the SEAWAT code based on Henry's problem. The first scenario delves into the impact of seawater temperature, the second focuses on the consequences of aquifer freshwater recharge temperature, and the third amalgamates the effects of both scenarios. Remarkably, the study reveals that saltwater intrusion (SWI) experiences a decline attributable to the aquifer's heightened seawater temperature and the diminished inland freshwater temperature. Furthermore, combining these two scenarios has a more pronounced effect on aquifer pollution; the temperature-induced changes in SWI for this third scanrio reach + 8.10%, + 12.70%, + 16.20%, + 24.90%, + 28.30%, and + 31.80% compared to the case without considering the temperature effect. Notably, our results propose a potential strategy to mitigate SWI by introducing cold freshwater recharge into aquifers, such as irrigation at night time when water temperature is low. This innovative approach underscores the interconnectedness of various environmental factors. It provides a practical avenue for proactive intervention in safeguarding groundwater quality against the adverse impacts of climate change and irrigation practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous modeling studies indicate that even though marine cloud brightening under a susceptibility‐based strategy is effective in reducing the global average surface temperature, it triggers a La Niña‐like sea‐surface temperature response with cooling mostly confined within lower latitudes. Here we explore a different cloud seeding strategy involving seeding of regions with low susceptibility, primarily over the ocean in midlatitudes during the winter. Simulations with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 reveal that because the regional forcing is weaker and more widespread, cooling is more evenly distributed over the globe. This new strategy also does not result in the La Niña‐like state seen in the other strategies. Plain Language Summary: Most previous marine cloud brightening (MCB) simulations have focused on the regions more likely to induce strong cooling. A common response in these simulations across different climate models is a La Niña‐like sea surface temperature pattern which could disrupt the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We explored simulations in which MCB is deployed over the least susceptible regions rather than the most susceptible. This new seeding strategy cools the globe more evenly and no longer triggers a La Niña‐like response. Key Points: We explore the idea of deploying marine cloud brightening (MCB) over broader regions with low susceptibility to cloud seedingThis approach induces fairly uniform cooling over the globe unlike MCB that targets the most susceptible regionsThis new seeding strategy has fewer climatic side effects and does not trigger a La Niña‐like response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to Europe is projected to strengthen under global warming in most climate model simulations. However, given the current difference between recent observations and historical model simulations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends, with models simulating an El Niño‐like warming in recent decades which is in disagreement with observations, it is important to understand the relative contributions of changes to the teleconnection forcing and background state to the overall teleconnection change. Using idealized climate model experiments, we show that both the eastward shift of El Niño precipitation and background state changes make contributions to the overall teleconnection change. These results suggest that the ENSO–Europe teleconnection can be expected to strengthen under global warming, even if ENSO precipitation anomalies do not shift eastwards as currently projected. However, the magnitude of the strengthening may depend on how much of an eastward shift does occur. Plain Language Summary: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the weather and climate in Europe, and this connection is expected to become stronger under global warming according to most climate models. However, there is a difference between recent observations of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and what climate models simulate. These differences could have important implications for future projections of ENSO's impact on Europe. To understand how likely the projected future strengthening of this link is, we looked at how two factors contribute to this connection change: (a) changes in rainfall associated with El Niño in the tropical Pacific and (b) overall changes in global climate elsewhere. Using a simplified climate model, we found that both these factors play a role in making the connection between El Niño and Europe stronger. This suggests that even if the specific patterns of El Niño rainfall don't change as projected, the link between El Niño and Europe will still get stronger due to global warming. However, how much stronger it gets might depend on the actual changes in El Niño rainfall, so it's important to figure out why there's a difference between observations and the model projections of Pacific Ocean temperature trends. Key Points: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnection to Europe is projected to strengthen under global warmingThis change is driven by an eastward shift of El Niño precipitation anomalies in the tropical Pacific and background state changes globallyBackground state changes have a greater impact on European circulation than precipitation changes, particularly over central‐eastern Europe [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the "signal-tonoise paradox" and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indo-Pacific, a vast biogeographic of Earth, is influenced by both the Indian and East Asian monsoons. Despite its geographical importance, this region has been less studied compared to East Asia and India. Here, we present speleothem records from southern Thailand that cover the last 1500 years, including a hiatus during the Little Ice Age, providing insights into the interactions among climate dynamics, human influences, and ecological responses to climate change. Notably, our records lack the characteristic cold and warm periods observed in other regions, such as the Dark Ages Cold Period and Medieval Warm Period, which may reflect the complexity of the tropical climate system or the region's unique topography. The analysis reveals a link between ENSO multi-decadal variability and hydroclimate conditions in southern Thailand, as evidenced by speleothem δ18O. Furthermore, a comparison between speleothem δ13C and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates significant vegetation changes in the last three decades, corresponding with increased atmospheric CO2 levels and expansion of agricultural land due to human activities during the Current Warm Period. Additionally, our study suggests that an abrupt increase in sea surface temperatures may enhance vegetation growth in the Indo-Pacific by influencing atmospheric circulation and increasing precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The data obtained during the recent decades indicate large-scale climatic changes in the Arctic Ocean, especially in the Siberian shelf seas. The impact of shrinking of the Arctic ice cover on marine net primary production (PP) was mostly studied using satellite-derived estimates of chlorophyll-a (Chl a), sea surface temperature, and sea ice concentrations, as well as various modeling approaches. However, no data are available on the quantitative relations between phytoplankton production and heterotrophic bacterioplankton activity in the broadest and shallowest shelf of the World Ocean - the East Siberian Arctic seas (ESAS). In this paper we present a full set of in situ measurements of main PP and microbial heterotrophy characteristics required for better understanding and further validation of the satellite and modeling approaches. In September–October 2011, during the 57th cruise of RV Akademik M.A. Lavrent'ev , PP, bacterioplankton abundance (BA) and bacterioplankton production (BP), as well the rates of dark CO 2 assimilation (DCA) were determined in the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev seas and in the Gulf of Anadyr of the Bering Sea (a total of 26 stations) by in situ measurements using radiolabeled bicarbonate. All three important production indicators exhibited significant variance within the studied water areas of the Arctic (РР from 0.98 to 54.7 μg C L−1 day−1), (ВР from 1.1 to 17.1 μg C L−1 day−1), and (DCA from 0.23 to 8.7 μg C L−1 day−1). The state of phyto- and bacterioplankton was determined by analysis of the BP/PP and DCA/PP ratios. Active photosynthesis with efficient incorporation of inorganic carbon into the biomass was observed in the Chukchi Sea coastal eastern waters and in the Gulf of Anadyr. On the contrary, the phytoplankton primary production was extremely low in oligotrophic basins of the East Siberian and Laptev seas, while the activity of heterotrophic bacterioplankton consuming organic matter of phytoplankton origin was relatively high. The data of direct measurements can be used for further adjustment of the indirect assessments of production obtained by satellite observations. Glossary East Siberian Arctic seas (ESAS), net primary production (PP), bacterioplankton abundance (BA), bacterial biomass (BB), bacterial production (BP), Arctic Ocean PP (AO-PP), organic matter (OM), dissolved organic matter (DOM), colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), light CO 2 assimilation (LCA), dark (heterotrophic + chemotrophic) CO 2 assimilation (DCA), production indicators of the surface water layer (PP surf , DCA surf , BP surf), estimated production indicators for the entire depth of the sea (PP int , DCA int , BP int ; mg C m−2 day−1). [Display omitted] • The Arctic seas are characterized by high heterogeneity of phyto- and bacterioplankton activity. • In the Chukchi and Bering seas, autotrophic production is higher than heterotrophic. • In the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, heterotrophic production is similar and higher than autotrophic. • The balance of autotrophic and heterotrophic plankton activity determines the direction of CO 2 flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open Cycle - Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OC-OTEC) is one of the most important renewable energy sources that generate electricity and fresh water from seawater utilizing the temperature gradient between the warm surface seawater and the cold deep seawater. This paper aims to develop non-linear data-driven model-based adaptive Feedback Control (FBC) schemes for the OC-OTEC process to track the output power and a dynamic Feed-Forward Control (FFC) scheme to reject the effects of temperature disturbance on power caused by climate variations in OC-OTEC. The experiments are conducted on a laboratory-scale OC-OTEC experimental setup at the National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai. Firstly, linear data-driven models are developed using system identification techniques. Based on the developed models, gain scheduling-based adaptive control schemes are developed: Proportional Integral (PI) control and Model Predictive Control (MPC). Secondly, the closed-loop performances of the developed FBC schemes are analysed under servo and regulatory operations. Furthermore, it is observed from the sensitivity analysis results that the temperature disturbance highly influences output over the manipulated variable. Hence, a dynamic FFC scheme is implemented to reject known disturbance of 1 °C variation in temperature gradient from 18 °C to 19 °C due to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes in temperature gradient. The results show that the proposed MPC-based FBC-FF scheme effectively enhances the tracking and disturbance rejection performance compared to the PI-based FBC-FF control scheme with a minimum Integral Square Error (ISE) of 3.055 and Control Effort (CE) of 7.505. This experimental data-based, data-driven modelling and adaptive control research provides a new direction for automating OC-OTEC. Further, these studies will help to develop a rugged and automated upscaling OC-OTEC plant control system with proposed feasible control schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change projections for coral reefs are founded exclusively on sea surface temperatures (SST). While SST projections are relevant for the shallowest reefs, neglecting ocean stratification overlooks the striking differences in temperature experienced by deeper reefs for all or part of the year. Density stratification creates a buoyancy barrier partitioning the upper and lower parts of the water column. Here, we mechanistically downscale climate models and quantify patterns of thermal stratification above mesophotic corals (depth 30 to 50 m) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Stratification insulates many offshore regions of the GBR from heatwaves at the surface. However, this protection is lost once global average temperatures exceed ~3 ℃ above preindustrial, after which mesophotic temperatures surpass a recognized threshold of 30 ℃ for coral mortality. Bottom temperatures on the GBR (30 to 50 m) from 2050 to 2060 are estimated to increase by ~0.5 to 1 ℃ under lower climate emissions (SSP1-1.9) and ~1.2 to 1.7 ℃ under higher climate emissions (SSP5-8.5). In short, mesophotic coral reefs are also threatened by climate change and research might prioritize the sensitivity of such corals to stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change related warming is a serious environmental problem attributed to anthropogenic activities, causing ocean water temperatures to rise in the coastal marine ecosystem since the last century. This particularly affects benthic microbial communities, which are crucial for biogeochemical cycles. While bacterial communities have received considerable scientific attention, the benthic eukaryotic community response to climate change remains relatively overlooked. In this study, sediments were sampled from a heated (average 5◦C increase over the whole year for over 50 years) and a control (contemporary conditions) Baltic Sea bay during four different seasons across a year. RNA transcript counts were then used to investigate eukaryotic community changes under long-term warming. The composition of active species in the heated and control bay sediment eukaryotic communities differed, which was mainly attributed to salinity and temperature. The family level RNA transcript alpha diversity in the heated bay was higher during May but lower in November, compared with the control bay, suggesting altered seasonal activity patterns and dynamics. In addition, structures of the active eukaryotic communities varied between the two bays during the same season. Hence, this study revealed that long-term warming can change seasonality in eukaryotic diversity patterns. Relative abundances and transcript expression comparisons between bays suggested that some taxa that now have lower mRNA transcripts numbers could be favored by future warming. Furthermore, long-term warming can lead to a more active metabolism in these communities throughout the year, such as higher transcript numbers associated with diatom energy production and protein synthesis in the heated bay during winter. In all, these data can help predict how future global warming will affect the ecology and metabolism of eukaryotic community in coastal sediments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Barents Sea is experiencing large trends in sea ice decline and increasing surface temperatures while at the same time, it is a key region of weather variability in the Arctic and therefore predestined for the occurrence of surface weather extremes. In this study, we identify extreme winter seasons in the Barents Sea, based on a multivariate method, as winters with large seasonal-mean anomalies in one or several surface parameters encompassing surface temperature, precipitation, surface heat fluxes and surface net radiation. Using large-ensemble climate model data for historical (S2000) and end-of-century (S2100) projections following a RCP8.5 emission scenario, we find distinct clusters of extreme winters that are characterized by similar combinations of anomalies in these key surface weather parameters. In particular, we find that, during extreme winters, seasonal-mean anomalies in surface temperature are usually spatially extended with a maximum over sea ice in S2000 simulations, which shifts towards the continental land masses in a warmer climate, as the formation of a warm or cold air reservoir is being hampered by the increasing area of open ocean. Several extreme winters are selected for a detailed investigation of their substructure focusing on the relative importance of anomalies in the occurrence of synoptic-scale weather systems and anomalous surface boundary conditions for the formation of such seasons. Large combined anomalies in the key surface parameters result mainly from the accumulation of recurrent short-term events that are linked to distinct patterns of anomalous frequencies in cyclones, anticyclones and cold air outbreaks. While large seasonal-mean anomalies in surface air temperature can be linked to large-scale patterns facilitating the horizontal advection of relatively warmer (colder) air, which coincides with a lack (surplus) of cold air outbreaks, precipitation anomalies are characterized by local anomalies in cyclone and anticyclone frequency. Additionally, anomalous surface boundary conditions – that is sea ice concentration and sea surface temperatures – facilitate the formation of persistent anomalous surface conditions or further enhance atmospherically driven anomalies due to anomalous surface heat fluxes. In a warmer climate, we find extreme winters with similar substructures as in S2000. However, the increasing distance of the Barents Sea to the sea ice edge causes a decreasing magnitude in seasonal-mean anomalies of surface air temperatures and the atmospheric components of the surface energy balance. A decrease in the variability of both sea ice and sea surface temperatures indicates a decreasing importance in anomalous surface boundary conditions for the formation of future extreme winters in the Barents Sea, while the robust link shown for surface weather systems persists in a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work was done on 1996 and 1997, and presents an extremely valuable baseline to compare the recent and future changes on the insular shallow habitats of the Azorean islands. We examined the structure of the molluscan communities of the macroalgae Halopteris scoparia in São Miguel Island (Azores, Portugal). This island was chosen because it is the largest and the most populated of the archipelago, with polluted sites which are not common in the Azores. The relationship between the epifaunal assemblages and a set of environmental factors - geographical location (orientation), seawater temperature, depth, algal volume, degree of disturbance, and degree of exposure to the wave action - was investigated using distance-based redundancy analysis and significant variation in the distribution of richness of assemblages was found. Four environmental predictors were common to all the four analyses implemented (richness and assemblage structure using both AIC and BIC): algal volume (that correlates with algal dry weight), seawater temperature, coastal orientation and depth. Finally, the application in the Azores of this methodology favours a sampling program in Spring-Summer (when disturbance seems to be more susceptible to detection), and the use of H. scoparia in the subtidal zone, as the target alga is recommended due to its large covering of rocky shore substrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Ocean's surface, particularly in the North Atlantic, has been heating up for decades. There was concern that the thermohaline circulation and essential climate variables, such as the temperature and salinity of seawater, could undergo substantial changes in response to this surface warming. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has changed noticeably over the last centennial and possibly slowed down in recent decades. Therefore, concerns about the future of the North Atlantic Ocean climate are warranted. The key to understanding the North Atlantic current climate trajectory is to identify how the decadal climate responds to ongoing surface warming. This issue is addressed using in-situ data from the World Ocean Atlas covering 1955-1964 to 2005-2017 and from the SODA reanalysis project for the most recent decades of 1980-2019 as fingerprints of the North Atlantic three-dimensional circulation and AMOC's dynamics. It is shown that although the entire North Atlantic is systematically warming, the climate trajectories in different sub-regions of the North Atlantic reveal radically different characteristics of regional decadal variability. There is also a slowdown of the thermohaline geostrophic circulation everywhere in the North Atlantic during the most recent decade. The warming trends in the subpolar North Atlantic lag behind the subtropical gyre and Nordic Seas warming by at least a decade. The climate and circulation in the North Atlantic remained robust from 1955-1994, with the last two decades (1995-2017) marked by a noticeable reduction in AMOC strength, which may be closely linked to changes in the geometry and strength of the Gulf Stream system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The projected increase in sea surface temperature due to climate change is expected to substantially intensify future hurricanes. Wooden light-frame residential buildings are particularly vulnerable to hurricane damage, and their risk is expected to increase due to heightened exposure and intensifying hurricanes. Therefore, adaptation strategies need to be planned to reduce damage to such buildings while considering the impact of climate change on hurricanes. This study investigates the effectiveness of various climate change adaptation strategies for coastal wood-frame single-story residential buildings and demonstrates how these strategies can be planned. The study considers the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) proposed by the IPCC to investigate the impact of climate change on wind hazard and losses. Additionally, three locations in the coastal United States of varying sizes, exposure, and hurricane hazard levels are considered: Harris County, Texas; Mobile County, Alabama; and Miami-Dade County, Florida. The results show that the increase in wind speeds and losses will be non-linear with time. All considered adaptation strategies decreased losses, with some able to completely counter the increasing losses even under high emission scenarios. Investigating the effectiveness of adaptive measures can guide stakeholders in allocating funds and efforts for hurricane risk management and enhancing community resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The driving force of climate change in the monsoon margin is complex, making it a key area for regional and global climate change research. Palaeohydrological studies in the monsoon margin have increased the resolution of research in the long term, transitioning from qualitative to quantitative studies to comprehend climate change processes, patterns, and mechanisms. Testate amoebae (TA) in peat sediments are used as a proxy indicator organism for quantitative reconstruction of palaeohydrology. Thus, their community changes are directly related to precipitation, and widely used to reconstruct the patterns of summer precipitation globally. We investigated TA species and reconstructed palaeohydrological changes in the Greater Khingan Mountains' Hongtu (HT) peatland, located in the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) margin. The result showed that the most abundant TA species were Assulina muscorum (12.4 ± 5.0%) and Nebela tincta (8.9 ± 4.9%) in the HT peat core. The increase in dry indicator species (e.g., A. muscorum and Alabasta militaris) indicated a drying pattern in the HT peatland since 150 cal yr BP. Principal component analysis (PCA) explained 47.6% of the variation in the selected TA assemblages. During 400 to 250 cal yr BP, PCA axis 1 scores ranged from 0.2 to −1.3 (reflecting a drier climate), associating with the Little Ice Age. The paleohydrology of the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains was mainly controlled by the EASM, which was associated with changes in North Atlantic Sea surface temperature and solar radiative forcing. The apparent drying pattern may be the result of the gradual intensification of anthropogenic activities and the increase in EASM intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work investigates the inter-model diversity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation's (PDO) impact on tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) from the historical simulation of twenty-two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The impact of the PDO is expressed as the TCF difference between the positive and negative PDO phases. The comparison between the models with high PDO skill and low PDO skill shows that the PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific plays an important role in changing the large-scale atmospheric dynamic fields for TC genesis and, thus, the TCF over the WNP. This SST gradient also significantly contributes to the inter-model spread of PDO's impact on TCF across the 22 CMIP6 models. We, therefore, stress that the PDO-related eastward SST gradient between the western and central tropical Pacific triggers the lower troposphere westerly and eastward extending of the monsoon trough over the WNP. The moistening of the atmosphere and enhancing ascending motion in the mid-troposphere promote convection, leading to the easterly wind anomaly over the upper troposphere, which reduces the vertical wind shear. Those favorable dynamic conditions consistently promote the TC formation over the southeastern part of the Western North Pacific. Our results highlight that PDO could impact the WNP TCF through its associated tropical SST gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detecting and attributing sea‐level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low‐lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea‐level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea‐level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole‐like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea‐level rise in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea‐level changes in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region. Plain Language Summary: Various natural and human‐induced factors contribute to sea‐level change, but separating their distinct impacts on a regional to local scale remains challenging. Here we use computer model simulations of global climate to detect and attribute historical sea‐level changes (1950–2014) in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region to anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing versus natural forcing. We discovered that the historical rise in sea level is predominantly driven by the influence of greenhouse gases, although aerosols tend to moderate the rate of rise. Notably, the rate of sea‐level rise and the time of emergence of anthropogenic signals vary spatially in the region. As an example, anthropogenic signals emerged earlier in the western Indian Ocean in the twentieth century than in the eastern Indian Ocean. Sea‐level rise in the deeper oceans of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region is primarily governed by changes in ocean temperature (termed thermosteric) and salinity (halosteric). Conversely, in shallow regions such as over the maritime continent and continental shelves, sea‐level rise is primarily a consequence of a local increase in ocean mass (manometric). Our study provides a better understanding of the attribution of regional sea‐level changes in the recent past and their possible implications for the future. Key Points: Historical sea‐level changes in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region are attributed using large‐ensemble climate model simulationsThe role of greenhouse gas forcing on historical sea‐level changes is dominant, but the time of emergence varies regionallyTropical Indian Ocean dynamics played a key role in controlling historical sea‐level changes in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing how global warming affects tropical cyclones (TC) is immensely important for climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation. However, projected intensity and size change can vary greatly among different individual storms, even under the same forcing in pseudo–global warming (PGW) experiments. Here we hypothesize that these variations are related to the historical environment in which each TC was embedded. Twenty-five TCs in the South China Sea (SCS) region were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Their changes in the near (2036–65) and far future (2075–99) following the representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) and 4.5 (RCP4.5) under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were investigated by the PGW technique. The mean changes in TC intensity and gale-force wind radius (R17) in the SCS were +6.4% and +1.5% for a 2°C warming, respectively. Multiple linear regression and stepwise regression analysis revealed that storm intensity variations were positively correlated with historical sea surface temperature and negatively with outer (i.e., outside the TC's R17) atmospheric instability, while the R17 variations correlated positively with outer midtropospheric relative humidity (RH) and surface outer wind speed (OWS). Ertel potential vorticity (EPV) diagnostics further showed a moister SCS background can cause stronger diabatic heating and EPV production at the spiral rainbands under PGW, which increases R17. Additionally, stronger background absolute angular momentum (AAM) promoted stronger AAM influx, leading to larger R17. Implications were drawn to explain the uncertainties in projected TC intensity and size due to natural variability. Significance Statement: Changes in the intensity and size of individual tropical cyclones in future climates are highly variable. This study aims to understand the environmental factors influencing these variations. We selected 25 storms that entered the South China Sea region and modeled them in both present and future climates. The mean intensity and size were projected to increase by 6.4% and 1.5% for a 2°C warming, respectively. We found that tropical cyclones embedded in historically warmer oceans and more stable atmospheres intensified more than the others, while historically wetter and windier environments promoted larger size growth. Our results suggest that certain tropical cyclones can exhibit a greater increase in intensity and size in a warmer climate under favorable environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often characterized through the use of sea surface temperature (SST) departures from their climatological values, as in the Niño-3.4 index. However, this approach is problematic in a changing climate when the climatology itself is varying. To address this issue, van Oldenborgh et al. proposed a relative Niño-3.4 SST index, which subtracts the tropical mean SST anomaly from the Niño-3.4 index and multiplies by a scaling factor. We extend their work by providing a simplified calculation procedure for the scaling factor, and confirm that the relative index demonstrates reduced sensitivity to climate change and multidecadal variability. In particular, we show in three observational SST datasets that the relative index provides a more consistent classification of historical El Niño and La Niña oceanic conditions that is more robust across climatological periods compared to the nonrelative index. Forecast skill of the relative Niño-3.4 index in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) and ACCESS-S2 is slightly reduced for targets during the first half of the year because subtracting the tropical mean removes a source of additional skill. For targets in the second half of the year, the relative and nonrelative indices are equally skillful. Observed ENSO teleconnections in 200-hPa geopotential height and precipitation during key seasons are sharper and explain more variability over Australia and the contiguous United States when computed with the relative index. Overall, the relative Niño-3.4 index provides a more robust option for real-time monitoring and forecasting ENSO in a changing climate. Significance Statement: The goal of this study is to further explore a relative sea surface temperature index for monitoring and prediction of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Sea surface temperature indices are typically computed as a difference from a 30-yr climatological average, and El Niño and La Niña events occur when values exceed a certain threshold. This method is suitable when the climate is stationary. However, because of climate change and other lower-frequency variations, historical El Niño and La Niña events are reclassified depending on which climatological period is selected. A relative index is investigated to ameliorate this problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the tropical Pacific is a pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. In both historical simulations and future projections, the current state-of-the-art climate models show evident spread in the changes of zonal SST gradient, but the reasons remain unknown. Here, we quantify the contributions of internal variability and model spread to the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes by analyzing 342 realizations from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and several sets of large-ensemble simulations. We found that the internal variability dominates the total uncertainty at multidecadal time scales (∼31-yr trends). Although the ratio of internal uncertainty to the total uncertainty declines along with higher emission of greenhouse gases under global warming, it is still over 80% at the multidecadal time scales in the future. The Pacific decadal oscillation is identified as the key internal mode responsible for the multidecadal uncertainty. For the future projections at centurial time scales, the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes is mainly from the intermodel spread in response to external forcing, accounting for about 70% of the uncertainty based on the difference between 2070–99 and 1970–99. The model spread in the cloud–shortwave radiation–SST feedback over the tropical Pacific is important in the uncertainty of zonal SST gradient changes. In particular, the intensity of negative convective cloud feedback in the western Pacific dominates the spread in CMIP5 models, while the intensity of stratocumulus cloud feedback over the southeastern Pacific is the primary process influencing the uncertainty in CMIP6 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset to CO2 forcing is of utmost importance for rain‐fed agriculture and water management. In this study, we utilized an idealized symmetric CO2 removal scenario from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to analyze the reversibility of monsoon onset. The results show that ISM onset is reversible but exhibits strong asymmetry: it undergoes minimal changes during the ramp‐up phase, but experiences rapid postponement as the CO2 begins to decline; Eventually, it is delayed more than 1 week when the CO2 concentration is restored to the initial level. To investigate the possible underlying mechanisms, we decomposed the climate response to CO2 forcing into the fast and slow processes. Notably, it is the enhanced slow response, which is driven by long‐term sea surface temperature (SST) changes, that dominates the asymmetric response of ISM onset. This slow response delays the ISM onset by strengthening near‐surface poleward land‐sea moist static energy contrast, thereby weakening the lower‐tropospheric monsoonal circulation. Based on the atmospheric component model simulations, we found that both the uniform SST change and patterned SST changes in the slow response contribute to the delay of ISM onset, but the latter plays a dominant role. Our results emphasize the importance of thoroughly assessing regional hydrological cycle features when designing the CO2 removal pathways. Plain Language Summary: The 2015 Paris Agreement set a target to limit global warming to 2°C by the end of the 21st century, with a preference for achieving 1.5°C. Meeting this temperature goal requires the atmospheric CO2 concentration to peak in this century and then start declining. It is crucial to understand whether the changes in the regional hydrological cycle can be reversed when we reach the global mean temperature goal. This study focuses on examining the responses of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset to idealized CO2 removal (CDR) forcing, in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration decreases symmetrically after increasing. Under the symmetric CDR pathway, the ISM onset displays reversible yet asymmetric evolution, it significantly delays when the CO2 concentration returns to the pre‐industrial level. This asymmetric response is attributed to the slow process of the climate system driven by long‐term sea surface temperature change, which leads to the delay in ISM onset by weakening the lower‐tropospheric circulation and, consequently, the precipitation. The slow response lags behind the evolution of CO2 concentration and plays a dominant role in the global mean surface temperature change during the ramp‐down phase. Understanding these mechanisms is essential for addressing climate change challenges and the impacts on regional monsoonal systems. Key Points: The idealized symmetric CO2 removal forcing leads to a reversible but asymmetric Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onsetThe delayed onset of ISM during the ramp‐down period is primarily dominated by the asymmetric and lagged slow process, which is associated with the long‐term sea surface temperature changeThe slow process delays the ISM onset by enhancing the near‐surface poleward land‐sea moist static energy contrast, which subsequently weakens the monsoonal circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and climate change have increased the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, limiting economic development and threatening human survival. Therefore, accurate global forecasts well in advance of precipitation are essential to facilitate timely adaptation. Current seasonal forecasts are based mainly on numerical models, but raw forecasts suffer from systematic bias and under/overdispersion problems and cannot be directly used in applications. In addition, bias correction methods for global forecasts need to be further developed. Based on a fusion of ResNet34 and Unet, called Res34‐Unet, deep learning post‐processing is proposed to correct global precipitation forecasts of the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME). Compared with raw global NMME predictions, post‐processed precipitation predictions can be improved by up to 45%, which is significant at different latitudes. Feature importance analysis shows that precipitation itself, meridional wind, and sea surface temperature are key factors. Plain Language Summary: Under the influence of global warming, extreme events, especially floods and droughts, are becoming more frequent, severely limiting social and economic development and greatly affecting people's lives. Therefore, accurate global forecasts are crucial to help people adaptively respond as soon as possible. Currently, seasonal forecasts are based mainly on numerical models. The North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) is one of the most advanced multi‐model ensemble systems for intra‐seasonal to interannual global prediction. However, due to deficiencies in numerical weather prediction models and inaccurate initial conditions, raw model predictions still have a large bias compared to observations. Therefore, accurate and efficient post‐processing algorithms are essential. Traditional post‐processing algorithms have some disadvantages such as the assumption of linearity, and spatial and temporal inconsistency. In addition, most post‐processing work has a regional focus, and more research focusing on global post‐processing prediction is needed to reduce global losses from extreme events. With the rapid development of machine learning, artificial intelligence is an effective tool to improve post‐processing. The fusion of ResNet34 and Unet, called Res34‐Unet, is proposed to post‐process global NMME rainfall predictions. Compared with raw NMME predictions, post‐processed predictions can be improved by up to 45%, which is significant at different latitudes. Key Points: Accurate global seasonal precipitation prediction is essential, but the bias of raw model predictions is largeRes34‐Unet post‐processing provides accurate seasonal precipitation prediction and outperforms Unet post‐processingRes34‐Unet post‐processing can improve predictions by up to 45%, which is significant at different latitudes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discrepancy between the observed lack of surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and climate model projections of an El Niño-like warming pattern confronts the climate research community. While anthropogenic aerosols have been suggested as a cause, the prolonged cooling trend over the equatorial Pacific appears in conflict with Northern Hemisphere aerosol emission reduction since the 1980s. Here, using CESM, we show that the superposition of fast and slow responses to aerosol emission change--an increase followed by a decrease--can sustain the La Niña-like condition for a longer time than expected. The rapid adjustment of Hadley Cell to aerosol reduction triggers joint feedback between low clouds, wind, evaporation, and sea surface temperature in the Southeast Pacific, leading to a wedge-shaped cooling that extends to the central equatorial Pacific. Meanwhile, the northern subtropical cell gradually intensifies, resulting in equatorial subsurface cooling that lasts for decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes on the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using the large-ensemble simulation from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2-LE) under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP370 scenario). Three SST change patterns are featured, distinguished by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific warming. MJO characteristics and its teleconnections responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the zonal SST gradient changes are examined. Results show that the anomalously strong El Niño-like SST change pattern significantly intensifies the MJO amplitude and enhances its eastward extension compared to the anomalously weak El Niño-like SST change pattern. These changes in MJO amplitude are further interpreted through the α framework. We also found no statistically different extratropical geopotential height responses to MJO between the three SST warming patterns, possibly due to strong internal climate variability. Changes in Rossby wave source between clusters also show a weak relationship with the MJO teleconnections. Our results highlight the importance of Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient changes on the changes of MJO but limited impacts on MJO teleconnections to the midlatitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]