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• Out-of-sample prediction of extreme precipitation using nonstationary models. • Significant trends in data of extreme precipitation are insufficient to warrant the selection of a nonstationary model. • Large prediction uncertainty reduces the support for nonstationary models of extreme precipitation. • (Non)stationary model selection should explicitly account for model complexity. Knowledge of the recurrence intervals of precipitation extremes is vital for infrastructure design, risk assessment, and insurance planning. However, trends and shifts in rainfall patterns globally pose challenges to the application of extreme value analysis (EVA) which relies critically on the assumption of stationarity. In this paper, we explore: (1) the suitability of nonstationary (NS) models in the presence of statistically significant trends, and (2) their potential in modeling out-of-sample data to improve frequency analysis of extreme precipitation. We analyze the benefits of using a nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model for annual extreme precipitation records from Southern Brazil. The location of the GEV distribution is allowed to change with time. The unknown GEV model parameters are estimated using Bayesian techniques coupled with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Next, we use GAME sampling to compute the evidence (and their ratios, the so-called Bayes factors) for stationary and nonstationary models of annual maximum precipitation. Our results show that the presence of a statistically significant trend in annual maximum precipitation alone does not justify the use of a NS model. The location parameter of the GEV distribution must also be well defined, otherwise, stationary models of annual maximum precipitation receive more support by the data. These findings reiterate the importance of accounting for GEV model parameters and predictive uncertainty in frequency analysis and hypothesis testing of annual maximum precipitation data records. Furthermore, a meaningful EVA demands detailed knowledge about the origin and persistence of observed changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastureland maintenance is seen as a land-based measure to reduce dependency on feed concentrates and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production in the EU, while providing other ecosystems services. This paper assesses potential market-mediated impacts, including global Land Use Change (LUC) and GHG emissions, from increased subsidies to pasture-based livestock production in the EU. A tax recycling strategy (TRS) is simulated against a baseline up to 2030 under the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). This implies a budget-neutral increase in the level of pasture subsidies in individual Member States, as land subsidies for other cropping activities decrease. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP in its recursive-dynamic version, GTAP-RDEM, extended with the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database FABIO to disaggregate agri-food sectors from 21 to 31. This approach allows considering price- and income-dependent feedbacks when assessing long-run changes in the global economy, improving the sectoral resolution relative to GTAP v10. The policy increases pastureland areas and cattle production in almost all EU Member States, whereas cropland and crop production decrease, causing significant changes across EU agri-food markets. Crop prices increase, leading to the reduced output of intensive animal production sectors, mainly pig and poultry. Cropland areas decrease and most EU countries increase imports of grain, oilseeds, and cakes, essentially soybean cake from Brazil and North America. While GHG emissions decrease in those EU countries where pasturelands expand mainly at the cost of croplands, GHG emissions increase in those countries where pastureland expansion comes with forest loss. As a result, net GHG emissions increase in the EU-27 in 2030 (+2.49 Mt CO 2 -eq). Emissions from LUC in major non-EU grain- and oilseed-exporting countries increase, e.g., by 102.52 Mt CO 2 -eq in Brazil and by 129.17 Mt CO 2 -eq in North America. The simulated policy shows that promoting extensive livestock per se does not meet the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal. The TRS should be complemented with policies to foster crop diversification and promote the use of domestic feed sources (e.g., legumes) to effectively ensure feed self-sufficiency and that extensive cattle production in the EU does not lead to deforestation in carbon-rich countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of wind power has gained prominence on the world stage, especially in Brazil. In addition to generating energy free of emissions, wind technology is the second cheapest generation option in Brazil. At the same time, it has contributed to reducing hydrological vulnerability caused by climate variation. Although wind power has experienced a steady expansion in the last decade, recent poor outcomes of wind auctions produced uncertainty about the future of this technology in the country. This paper analyses the influence of contract mechanisms used in Brazilian energy auctions for the growth of wind generation. To do this, a scenario analysis based on a hybrid simulation model is used, combining agent-based modelling (ABM) and system dynamics (SD). From the hybrid simulation, the effect of the wind project cancellation policy is analysed, on the one hand, and different ceiling prices for competing sources in the auctions are assessed, on the other. Moreover, the simulation model shows how hydro conditions affect reserve energy auctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This work analyzes the impacts of climate change in the revenues of hydropower plants. One important input for designing and evaluating investment opportunities in hydropower is the water inflows historical data. Unfortunately, the use of such information alone may not project well the future power generation due to the influence of climate change in the water inflow patterns. This paper introduces spatio-temporal information of the future climate into the operational planning of the Brazilian hydropower system. Global climate models from IPCC are considered along with downscaled regional climate models. Our results at the individual hydro plant level show the importance of taking into account climate change information when performing hydro generation planning studies. Highlights • We present a new framework to evaluate climate change impacts in hydropower plants. • An interaction among regional climate, water inflows modeling, and optimization dispatch models is showed. • Relevant results for distinct configurations of the Brazilian system are presented. • This paper can help to support decision-making regarding investments in new hydro plants. • This multidisciplinary research provides guidance for future planning of the generation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the effects of public policies on the occurrence of natural disasters related to extreme rainfall. By using a unique and geolocated database on natural disasters in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I test whether variables related to public policies - e.g. forest cover and urban infrastructure - affect the occurrence of natural disasters, conditional on the existence of extreme rainfall. Results point to a significant role for public policies in order to mitigate effects of extreme weather events. More specifically, results point to an important role for urban infrastructure, as proper sewage and waste collection, and forest cover in reducing the impacts of extreme rainfall. Moreover, I discuss how these heterogeneous effects have distributional consequences and can be linked to the Environmental Justice literature. Finally, this paper reinforces the idea that adaptation policies to disasters are essential in reducing local vulnerabilities and can yield distributional and fiscal benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts in one country can lead to impacts in distant locations, for example, via internationally traded crops. Previous work has highlighted a need to include cross-border climate change impacts in climate risk assessments, to describe the exposure and transmission of cross-border climate risk across actors, and understand options for managing this risk. In a case study of the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain, this paper aims to explore how stakeholders perceive past and future shocks, how climate change impacts affect stakeholders differently, and how they might respond. Soy is a key internationally traded commodity and Europe relies on imports for the majority of its soy consumption, used widely in livestock feed. Via 96 semi-structured expert interviews, we found different stakeholder groups are vulnerable to different types of weather shocks, experience different price and supply consequences, and have different capacities to respond. While some responses can reduce risk of impacts across the supply chain (e.g. new soy cultivars, improving transport infrastructure), we also identified examples where responses exacerbate risk for other stakeholders (e.g. export bans, changing demand). A holistic cross-border approach to analysing risk in the soy supply chain can help avoid maladaptation and offer opportunities for more collaborative adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of public policies have emerged worldwide as a response from governments facing climate change effects, drawing the attention of the scientific community to the outcomes and actual effects/benefits these policies have brought so far. One of the challenging aspects related to this context is the integration of the objectives set by climate change policies within the sectoral and regional planning. In this respect, the literature recognizes the relevance of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as an instrument to deal with climate change issues in the planning process and to support the development of alternatives to respond to climate change policies. The influence of climate change policies on the plans and programs supported by SEA in emerging economies is yet to be verified. The paper relies on the case of Brazil, recognized by its relevance in terms of biodiversity, water resources and climate regulation. In 2009, Brazil introduced the National Policy of Climate Change (NPCC), which established guidelines to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2020. The present paper is based on the analysis of the current SEA practice and the corresponding level of integration of climate change issues, considering the objectives of the NPCC. A set of 29 statements, delivered by the literature, was applied, combined to the content analysis techniques to review the quality of 35 SEA reports produced in Brazil between 1997 and 2014 (out of 40-odd cases). The outcomes indicate the performance is similar to what was found in other contexts, i.e., SEA areas barely address climate change issues. This thus reveals an important gap between the objectives of NPCC and sectoral/regional planning. SEA can contribute to reducing this gap, but it needs more strength to influence the development of sectoral and regional policies and plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has an energy system with a hydrothermal characteristic that interconnects consumers and generators covering 98% of the demand for energy supplies. Most of the plants are concentrated in the southeast region, where the largest consumers and the largest population concentration are located. The expansion of this system, considering the hydroelectric contributions, will occur exploring the potentials located in the Amazon region. This analysis paper shows that the variations imposed by climate changes on some climatological variables create significant uncertainties about the power generation forecasts of the hydroelectric power plants to be installed in the Amazon, thus compromising the financial economic feasibility of these enterprises and also possibly compromising the expansion plans of the Brazilian energy system. The methodological approach uses information from various climate change scenarios and compares those with historical hydrological patterns and generation information. By exploring the characteristics of a large-scale hydrothermal system with high dependence on water resources, this paper provides valuable insights on how energy policy would address hydroelectric vulnerabilities and climate change. This analysis is focused on the Brazilian case but reveals important issues related to systems with hydro thermal characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Bibliographic mapping was used to identify major research groups and trends for heat tolerance in farm animals. • Major research countries are the USA, China, Brazil, India, Australia and UK with 54% of all publications. • There was a gradual drift in heat stress studies from animal physiology towards genomics and cellular biology. • This area of research is growing 3x faster than publication rates in general. • Most papers are on cattle, indicating the need for studies with other species. This study looks at the bibliographic mapping of citation, co-occurrence of keywords, co-citation and bibliographic coupling for heat tolerance in farm animals. Data was obtained from Scopus (Elsevier) and analysed in Vosviewer. Several salient points emerge from our analysis. We found a total of 1728 documents from 102 countries, of which 54% are from six countries (USA, China, Brazil, India, Australia and UK). While heat tolerance is important, Global South countries have recently become more important in this topic. Nevertheless, researchers from this region appear relatively isolated using the metrics of this study. One potential factor contributing to isolation could be lack of funding. This is discussed in the light of current Article Processing Charges. We also note a gradual drift in heat stress studies from animal physiology towards genomics and cellular biology. The paper can help understanding tendencies in this field of research and may point to future actions within the research community. This paper also shows the need to strengthen studies in less favoured areas and with species such as small ruminants, whereby small holders may be harder hit by climate change. Biases in the analysis could arise due to low citations from recent papers or those not indexed in Scopus. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adoption of sustainable agriculture practices (SAP) has the potential to mitigate climate change's effects, while at the same time minimize degradation of natural resources and increase food production. However, recent policies based on economic incentives alone have largely failed to increase SAP adoption rate at farm level. Understanding farmers' perceptions towards environmental issues and climate change is essential to change this situation. This study aims to categorize farmers in different types, according to their perceptions on environmental issues and on climate change in a sample of Brazilian farmers (n = 172). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis were used. Results showed four clusters of farmers: "Worried", "Apathetic", "Anthropocentric" and "Ecocentric". Contrasting to "Worried" and "Apathetic", farmers in "Anthropocentric" and "Ecocentric" clusters presented pro-environmental behavior, which suggests a high likelihood to adopt SAP. While farmers with an anthropocentric view are oriented to increase their economic gains, ecocentric farmers are motivated by environmental concerns i.e. non-economic factors. Insights of this paper can be used to facilitate effective policy development and strategies to increase the adoption rate of SAP. Image 10125 • The study examines the classified environmental behavior of farmers in Brazil. • Statistical analysis was used for the study. • Farmers who are ecocentric and anthropocentric exhibited pro-environmental behavior. • Pro-environmental behavior is not motivated exclusively by financial incentives. • Results will help to increase the adoption rate of sustainable agricultural practices in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vulnerability of electric potential generation from water resources has been evidenced due to uncertainties of climatic origin and energy planning. Changes in rainfall regimes are multifactorial phenomena difficult to model. Rainfall is the main natural way of restoring the reservoir levels of hydroelectric power plants. The reduction in rainfall levels may increase in the coming years, resulting in a probable change of the energy matrix configuration of the state of Minas Gerais (MG). This could reduce the share of renewable sources increasing dependence on the importance of energy from fossil fuels, which are the immediate primary sources of energy available. Prior examinations have portrayed the depletion of hydroelectricity in Brazil, or its macro-regions, however this work tries to supply a more focused look at the effects on the electricity and social sectors of the state of Minas Gerais. The study developed in this paper aims to investigate the hydrological potential alteration impacts and consequences on the energy matrix of the state, the greenhouse gas emissions and the social reflexes of these changes due to scenarios motivated by climate change. The investigation intends to show the importance of the water-energy-emissions nexus for energy planning and decision-making, in order to evaluate the best options for dealing with adverse and potentially destabilizing conditions. The results of the analyses show that while hydropower demand was 5.24 Mtoe in 2015, in 2030 the supply of hydropower will be 5.81 Mtoe and 4.72 Mtoe, for the conservative and severe scenarios, respectively. In addition, the effect of climate change may require an increase in the share of non-renewable sources in the energy matrix, which could increase CO 2 e emissions from 4.2% to 7.4% by 2030, compared to the levels in 2016. • Reduction in rainfall levels will change the energy matrix configuration of MG state. • Population growth will boost demand for energy. • It is shown the importance of the water-energy-emissions nexus for energy planning and decision-making. • The energy matrix may considerably increase the CO 2 e emissions by 2030, compared with 2016 levels in the MG state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The São Francisco delta in eastern Brazil is considered a classical example of a wave-dominated delta constructed in a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) far-field region. Although this delta is widely mentioned in the international literature, few details about its sedimentary architecture have been published. In this paper, we use a new dataset consisting of 15 boreholes and 26 radiocarbon datings to discuss the 3D architecture of the delta and the role played by GIA far-field effects in delta construction. The delta plain consists of a 10–12 m thick littoral sand sheet that progrades over a muddy subaqueous clinoform, forming a compound clinoform. Delta construction began between 8.4 and 7.2 ka BP and included a stage of normal regression that lasted until 5.7 ka BP, followed by a stage of forced regression. The transition between these two stages is marked by the highest position of the sand–mud transition in the boreholes. This forced regression is due to a 3–4-m drop in relative sea level since the mid-Holocene, which is characteristic of GIA far-field regions. Additionally, as a consequence of this drop in relative sea level, there is a progressive increase in the altitude of the beach-ridge deposits continentward, which combined with the development of extensive dune fields in the later stages of delta construction, contributes to the increased resilience of the delta to ongoing sea-level rise. The 3D architecture of the delta was strongly influenced by antecedent topography. The delta was built on a bathymetric depression on the shelf that almost entirely traps the sediment load of the São Francisco River. The uneven relief inside this bathymetric depression ultimately controlled lateral variations in the total thickness of the delta edifice. • Two-stage delta construction in GIA far-field regions: normal and forced regression. • Drop in sea level since mid-Holocene in GIA far-field regions increases delta resilience to ongoing sea-level rise. • Antecedent topography strongly controlled the delta 3D architecture. • 3D architecture of the São Francisco wave-dominated delta is presented for the first time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few years, there has been a growing global consensus related to the importance of renewable energy to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. The solution is an increase in the number of renewable power plants but unfortunately, this leads to a high dependence on climate variables which are already affected by climate change. Brazil is one of the largest producers of electricity by renewables through its hydro-dominant power generation system. However, hydro-generation depends on water inflows that are directly affected by climate change that consequently affect the electricity production. Therefore, these changes need to be considered in the operation and planning of a hydro-dominant power system. In this paper, we present the effects of different climate scenarios in the water inflows produced by the regional Eta climate model. Normally, studies use an optimization model to make decisions in case of a hydro-thermal scheduling problem and use the assured energy to evaluate the hydro-production. In this analysis, water inflows used in the optimization process consider different trends according to its associated climate scenario. Our paper shows that climate change may drastically impact the system assured energy and consequently, the system's capability to supply load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A user-friendly system designed to understand local littoral processes and design/evaluate coastal interventions, named the Coastal Modeling System (SMC ε) is presented. The system, which comprises a set of numerical models, state-of-the-art methodologies and numerical databases, is prepared to provide a method for coastal practitioners, researchers and decision-makers to address coastal issues, such as erosion and flooding or to evaluate coastal defense structures. The system incorporates a method to transfer numerically generated, calibrated and validated wave series to the surf zone; to estimate the sediment littoral drift by means of up-to-date formulations; and to estimate the flooding level and impacts such as those produced by climate change. In this paper, these skills are detailed. The system, which is adaptable to any coastal region, was implemented for the Brazilian coast (SMC-Brasil). The implementation includes databases and methodological adaptations to local characteristics, a dissemination plan and the development of several study cases. Highlights • SMCε is modeling software to deal with all stages of Coastal Engineering Projects. • Database includes 60-year time series of waves, storm surge and astronomical tide. • Methodology/models to study dynamics/impacts at all scales including climate change. • Erosion/flooding assessment due to interventions/natural causes even climate change. • SMCε is free and adaptable to any country. Adaption to Brazilian coast is described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Energy-Water-Food Nexus is one of the most complex sustainability challenges faced by the world. This is particularly true in Brazil, where insufficiently understood interactions within the Nexus are contributing to large-scale deforestation and land-use change, water and energy scarcity, and increased vulnerability to climate change. The reason is a combination of global environmental change and global economic change, putting unprecedented pressures on the Brazilian environment and ecosystems. In this paper, we identify and discuss the main Nexus challenges faced by Brazil across sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, water) and scales (e.g. federal, state, municipal). We use four case studies to explore all nodes of the Nexus. For each, we analyse data from economic and biophysical modelling sources in combination with an overview of the legislative and policy landscape, in order to identify governance shortcomings in the context of growing challenges. We analyse the complex interdependence of developments at the global and local (Brazilian) levels, highlighting the impact of global environmental and economic change on Brazil and, conversely, that of developments in Brazil for other countries and the world. We conclude that there is a need to adjust the scientific approach to these challenges as an enabling condition for stronger science-policy bridges for sustainability policy-making. Highlights • Overview of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus in Brazil for science, law and policy. • Review of the complex linkages in the Nexus for water, energy and food security. • Review of the law addressing the Nexus and its coordination deficiencies. • Recommendations for strengthening the Nexus science-policy bridge in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper aims to discuss the adaptation of a brazilian social housing project to the Passive House standard, by defining the thermal envelope construction fabric for different climates of southern Brazil, from a base line according to the Brazilian performance standard. The study was developed in 4 steps, where a numerical model was set up and runned in a transient regime, using EnergyPlus® software. In the first step, the thermal and energy performance of the reference base model was assessed. In the second step, a sensitivity analysis was performed, varying the thermal envelope parameters of the building case study, in order to satisfy the minimum performance of the classification level A, according to the Brazilian Energy Efficiency Regulation (RTQ-R). In a third step, the external envelope of the building was optimised, through a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. In a last step, the numerical model defined according to the Passive House standard was optimised, in order to obtain optimal solutions. Thermal and energy performance and economic viability of the solutions were analysed. Solutions attending to RTQ-R presented additional investment between 26% and 27% and solutions attending to Passive House standard presented additional costs of 39% and 42% for the three bioclimatic zones. Highlights • An optimisation methodology for Passive House design is presented. • An evolutionary multi-objective algorithm is used for thermal building simulation. • Different bioclimatic zones in Brazil are investigated. • Energy performance and thermal comfort of the buildings are significantly improved. • The Passive social interest housing is economically viable for bioclimatic zone 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We combined occupational accidents data and climatic variables into a new database. • We verified a positive association between heat stress and occupational accidents. • There is an association between high levels heat stress and death of the worker. • Workers of color are associated to higher levels of heat stress. • Unprecedented results and database on Brazilian research. Work accidents result in consequences to the employment of the population and increasing public spendings. Caused by workplace and work activity characteristics, occupational accidents may also derive from ergonomics and comfort issues. Heat stress is a discomfort factor that affects workers when exposed to temperatures above the body limits, resulting in exhaustion, dizziness, reduced cognitive performance and, eventually, injuries and accidents. Under the current climate change scenario characterized by increase of temperature projections all around the world, the heat stress issue becomes even more significant. However, in Brazil, this topic is yet little explored, especially regarding the investigation of historical data on occupational accidents considering the climatic variables. This paper aims at filling a part of this gap by presenting a new database that unifies a work accident database - recording from 2006 to 2019 - with meteorological data of the place and time of the accident. We investigate the relationship between these two datasets through the application of Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) in the R Software. Our results show some association between accident variables and heat stress variables. We identify some of the more critical workers' characteristics in this context and the most exposed regions of Brazil. Our database allows the continuity and expansion of this type of research in Brazil, and the MCA results point to a positive association between the occurrence of accidents with climatic variables. It may pave a new path for research that can detail and deepen the discussion on the behavior of these variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct an 11,000-year history of depositional environmental change in southeastern Brazil, based upon the integration of particulate organic matter and stable isotope (C and N) data from a 136-cm sediment core from Lake Canto Grande. These proxies are used to explore the evolution of terrestrial and marine influence on the lake. Isotopic (δ 13 C: −27.87‰ to −31.9‰; δ 15 N: −0.07‰–4.9‰) and elemental (total organic carbon - TOC: 0.58%–37.19%; total nitrogen - TN: 0.08%–1.73%; C/N: 0.3 to 54.7) values recorded in Lake Canto Grande suggest that the sedimentary organic matter was derived from mostly C 3 land plants and freshwater phytoplankton. Particulate organic matter and cluster analyses distinguished four associations characterized by the predominance of amorphous organic matter, followed by phytoclasts and palynomorphs. These results indicate two different phases of lake evolution. The first phase (136 - 65 cm; ∼10,943 cal yr. B.P. to ∼8529 cal yr. B.P.) is recorded by sand layers interbedded with mud, which contain amorphous organic matter (AOM, 45–59%) and phytoclasts (opaques - OP: 6–18%; non-opaques – NOP: 17–23%) which indicate a floodplain area. The second phase (65–0 cm; ∼8529 cal yr. B.P. to ∼662 cal yr. B.P.) comprises mud, AOM (68–86%) and palynomorphs (PAL, 8–16%) related to lake establishment comparable to modern conditions. Thus, characterizing particulate organic matter, in combination with stable isotopes, proved to be invaluable proxies for lacustrine paleoenvironmental change through the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

City governments worldwide are increasingly introducing adaptation actions and climate responses in their policies and agendas, but the speed and success of these initiatives vary widely. Understanding these interventions, barriers and opportunities for urban adaptation remains a challenge for scholars and policy-makers. In this paper, we assess climate adaptation policy in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil, paying special attention to missed opportunities and potential synergies. We focus on climate policies and urban interventions in São Paulo, specifically on the analysis of documents related to the Municipal Climate Change Policy (launched in 2009) and New Master Plan (concluded in 2014). We describe local responses to climate change already implemented in the city and explore some of the factors that affect its adaptation. We argue that although the megacity has recently implemented innovative urban policies and a set of municipal actions that aim to overcome many of the city's challenges, São Paulo is missing an opportunity to mainstream climate change to improve its adaptive capacity. In exploring some of the local initiatives implemented in recent years, we seek to understand responses to climate change that emerge in Brazilian cities, particularly considering that cities learn from each other to adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social housing sector is very important in Brazil, due to the necessity of expansion and investments being placed through a substantial government program. Residential buildings are expected to last at least 50 years according to Brazilian standards. Many residential projects in the sector already perform medium or poorly in terms of energy efficiency and thermal comfort today, and their designs are not analysed considering climate change. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the result of analysing the thermal and energy performance of social housing projects considering climate change, and to assess the impact on the operational phase of introducing energy efficiency measures in the sector, and exploring methods of adaptation to climate change. A representative project of the lower income sector housing was used as case study with the evaluation of measures through thermal and energy simulation with current and future weather files for the cities of São Paulo and Salvador. Results were compared using predicted energy consumption and cooling and heating degree-hours as indicators. The results highlighted some differences related to the climate scenarios and indicator analysed, and showed that the incorporation of energy efficiency measures in current social housing projects is of fundamental importance to minimize the effects of climate change in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lateral and vertical distribution of sedimentary facies and ichnofacies in lacustrine systems records sensitive climatic variations and rates of subsidence. The Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous lacustrine system of the Pastos Bons Formation in the Parnaíba Basin, northeastern Brazil, is an excellent opportunity to evaluate the depositional history of the post-CAMP thermal subsidence. This subsidence event succeeded the voluminous emplacement of mafic magma linked to the Central Atlantic magmatic province (CAMP), ∼201 Ma, forming a large subsiding area in West Gondwana. In this sense, this paper developed outcrop-based facies and ichnofacies analysis, allowing the interpretation of two depositional phases and four facies associations (FAs): 1) The lower depositional phase comprises lacustrine deposits showing an aggradational stacking pattern. FA1 - central lake records fibrous gypsum interbedded with fossiliferous shale beds, forming shallowing-upward cycles. 2) The upper depositional phase reveals a fluvio-lacustrine succession, forming a progradational stacking pattern. Central lake (FA1) comprises laminated mudstone and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Mermia ichnofacies, forming coarsening-upward cycles. Lakeshore (FA2) comprising mudstone beds, limestone lenses, and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Scoyenia ichnofacies, forming shallowing-upward cycles; and conglomerate lenses overlaid by sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Skolithos ichnofacies, forming fining-upward cycles. A braided fluvial system (FA3) comprises conglomerate and sandstone beds, forming fining-upward cycles. Delta front (FA4) comprises mudstone lenses and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Skolithos ichnofacies, organized in coarsening-upward cycles. The fluvial discharge and wave activity oxygenated the water lake in the progradational phase, creating chemical and biological conditions that allowed the establishment of the epifaunal and infaunal benthic communities, represented by the well-preserved ichnological record. The decrease of the post-CAMP thermal subsidence rates (accommodation potential) related with the increase of the wet periods to the top of the succession (sedimentary supply) indicate a depositional evolution from underfilled to overfilled lake basin, during Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous, in West Gondwana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use palynology and geochemical proxies to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation changes within the hydrographic basin of Parnaíba, Northeast Brazil, over the last 130 kyrs. Findings are based on the analysis of a marine sediment core (GL-1248) retrieved from the western equatorial Atlantic (0°55.2′S, 43°24.1′W), close to the coast. Geochemical proxies (Fe/K ratio and Ɛ Nd) indicative of soil erosion match changes in reconstructed vegetation, suggesting a dynamic pattern of hydrological disturbances and ecosystem evolution. Given that reconstructed vegetation does not present the same response to precipitation anomalies on the millennial scale, we sought the main drivers of vegetation changes in the Parnaíba watershed. Results indicate that vegetation succession was primarily influenced by austral insolation from March to May, which triggered changes in the pioneer vegetation types. Our study improves the knowledge of tropical vegetation dynamics in an orbital framework, suggesting 23-kyr precessional cycles as the main driver of landscape evolution in Northeast (NE) Brazil. We also infer that such past climate change events may have been a key causal factor of the high biodiversity of the Neotropics, mediated through the biological exchange of the Amazon and Atlantic rainforest species via ecological forest corridors in the semi-arid Northeast Brazil. • We discuss vegetation change and how it reflects hydrological changes within the Parnaíba Basin, northeastern (NE) Brazil, over the past 130 kyrs • Geochemical proxies (Fe/K ratio and ƐNd) in core GL-1248 are synchronous with reconstructed vegetation patterns, highlighting periods of enhanced or reduced local soil erosion during hydrological disturbances • We define three major vegetation groups (tropical dry forest, lowland rainforest, and wetland), and the discrepancy in water requirements between tropical dry forests and lowland rainforests is discussed • Analysis of the hydroclimatic mechanisms in NE Brazil that triggered the succession of vegetation during glacial phases is discussed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrestrial biosphere is an important global carbon (C) sink, with the potential to drive large positive climate feedbacks. Thus a better understanding of interactions between land use change, climate change and the terrestrial biosphere is crucial in planning future land management options. Climate change has the potential to alter terrestrial C storage since changes in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations could affect net primary production (NPP), C inputs to soil, and soil C decomposition rates. Climate change could also act as a driver for land use change, thus further altering terrestrial C fluxes. The net balance of these different effects varies considerably between regions and hence the case studies presented in this paper (the GEFSOC project countries Kenya, Jordan, Brazil, and India) provide a unique opportunity to study climate impacts on terrestrial C storage. This paper first presents predicted changes in climate for the four case study countries from a coupled climate-C cycle Global Circulation Model (HadCM3LC), followed by predicted changes in vegetation type, NPP and soil C storage. These very coarse assessments provide an initial estimate of large-scale effects. A more detailed study of climate impacts on soil C storage in the Brazilian Amazon is provided as an example application of the GEFSOC system. Interestingly in the four cases studied here precipitation seems to control the sign of the soil C changes under climate change with wetter conditions resulting in higher soil C stocks and drier conditions in lower soil C stocks, presumably because increased NPP in wetter conditions here will override any increase in respiration. In contrast, globally, it seems to be temperature that controls changes in C stocks under climate change. Even if there is a slight increase in precipitation globally, a decrease in C stocks is predicted—in other words, the regional response to precipitation differs from the global response. The reason for this may be that whilst temperature increases under climate change were predicted everywhere, the nature of precipitation changes varies greatly between regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Brazil is one of the first major developing countries to commit to a national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target that requires a reduction of between 36.1% and 38.9% relative to baseline emissions by 2020. The country intends to submit agricultural emissions reductions as part of this target, with livestock production identified as offering significant abatement potential. Focusing on the Cerrado core (central Brazilian savannah), this paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of this potential, which involves some consideration of both the private and social costs and benefits (e.g. including avoided deforestation) arising from specific mitigation measures that may form part of Brazil's definition of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Measures (NAMAs). The analysis used an optimisation model to define abatement costs. A baseline projection suggests that beef production in the region will emit 2.6 Gt CO 2 e (CO 2 equivalent) from 2010 to 2030, corresponding to 9% of national emissions (including energy, transport, waste, livestock and agriculture). By implementing negative-cost measures identified in a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) by 2030, the 2.6 Gt CO 2 e could be reduced by around 24%. Pasture restoration, involving avoided deforestation, offers the largest contribution to these results. As the Brazilian Cerrado is seen as a model for transforming other global savannahs, the results offer a significant contribution by identifying alternatives for increasing productivity while minimizing national and global external costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies dealing with the reconstruction of Holocene climate change of tropical areas are scarce. Of these, multi-proxy investigations using peatlands are still absent. In this paper, we present the Holocene record of environmental changes in central–eastern Brazil reconstructed from a core sampled in Pau de Fruta mire (Serra do Espinhaço Meridional, Brazil). We combined palynological and geochemical analyses, supported by core stratigraphy, 14 C dating and multivariate statistics. The location of the mire is ideal because it is in an area which is directly associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Six main phases of change suggested by vegetation and local and regional landscape dynamics were described. In phase I (~ 10,000–7360 cal. yr BP) the climate was very wet and cold and was accompanied by soil instability in the mire catchment (severe local erosion) and the 8.2 ka event was easily recognizable by a large increase in the deposition of regional dust. Phase II (~ 7360–4200 cal. yr BP) was characterized by wet and warm conditions, catchment soil stability and enhanced deposition of regional dust. In phase III (~ 4200–2200 cal. yr BP), climate was dry and warm and soil erosion in the catchment increased again. In phase IV (~ 2200–1160 cal. yr BP) dry and punctuated cooling was reconstructed, together with enhanced deposition of regional dust. Phase V (~ 1160–400 cal. yr BP) reflects sub-humid climatic conditions (like the current climate), the lowest inputs of local and regional dust and the largest accumulation of peat in the mire. While in phase VI (< ~ 400 cal. yr BP) sub-humid conditions continued but both local and regional erosion significantly increased. Our results demonstrate that the tropical peatlands of Serra do Espinhaço Meridional contain relevant records of Holocene climate changes, and that a multi-proxy approach offers good opportunities for a detailed reconstruction of palaeoenvironments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-cover change detection using satellite remote sensing is largely confined to the era of Landsat satellites, from 1972 to present. However, the Corona, Argon, and Lanyard intelligence satellites operated by the U.S. government between 1960 and 1972 have the potential to provide an important extension of the long-term record of Earth’s land surface. Recently declassified, the archive of images recorded by these satellites contains hundreds of thousands of photographs, many of which have very high ground resolution- 6–9 ft (1.8–2.7 m) even by today’s standards. This paper demonstrates methods for extending the span of forest-cover change analysis from the Landsat-5 and -7 era (1984 to present) to the previous era covered by the Corona archive in two study areas: one area covered predominantly by urban and sub-urban land uses in the eastern US and another area by tropical forest in central Brazil. We describe co-registration of Corona and Landsat images, extraction of texture features from Corona images, classification of Corona and Landsat images, and post-classification change detection based on the resulting thematic dataset. Second-order polynomial transformation of Corona images yielded geometric accuracy relative to Landsat-7 of 18.24 m for the urban area and 29.35 m for the tropical forest study area, generally deemed adequate for pixel-based change detection at Landsat resolution. Classification accuracies were approximately 95% and 96% for forest/non-forest discrimination for the temperate urban and tropical forest study areas, respectively. Texture within 7 × 7- to 9 × 9-pixel (∼13.0–16.5 m) neighborhoods and within 11 × 11-pixel (∼30 m) neighborhoods were the most informative metrics for forest classification in Corona images in the temperate and tropical study areas, respectively. The trajectory of change from the 1960s to 2000s differed between the two study areas: the average annual forest loss rate in the urban area doubled from 0.68% to 1.9% from the 1960s to the mid-1980s and then decreased during the following decade. In contrast, deforestation in the Brazilian study area continued at a slightly increased pace between the 1960s and 1990s at annual loss rate of 0.62–0.79% and quickly slowed down afterward. This study demonstrates the strong potential of declassified Corona images for detecting historical forest changes in these study regions and suggests increased utility for retrieving a wide range of land cover histories around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Araucaria Plateau is a geomorphological unit that occupies approximately three-quarters of the terrain in the southern region of Brazil. The plateau displays different altitudinal levels (600 to <1400 m a.s.l.) that are locally recognized as remnants of planed surfaces (S8-S1). These surfaces are maintained by basic (S3-S8) and acidic (S1 and S2) volcanic flows from the Neocretaceous period of the Paraná Basin. The largest extent of this plateau is located in a humid subtropical climate zone. Colluvial, colluvial-alluvial, alluvial sediments and paleosols (Ab diagnostic horizons) occur predominantly in S2. The paleosols are located in low-hierarchical-order fossil valleys (first- to fourth-order in Strahler's stream classification) and valley heads, which are referred to as paleovalleys in this paper. We employed these paleosols as stratigraphic level markers of the pedogenesis of the regional Upper Quaternary and propose their importance as records of the paleoenvironmental conditions of the Araucaria Plateau in areas above 1200 m a.s.l. These paleosols were dated by 14C and show ages between 23.8 ± 0.05 kyr BP (28.06-29.08 kyr cal. BP) and 41.16 ± 0.48 kyr BP (44.13-45.58 kyr cal. BP). The calibrated ages are related to Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), in which the last period of global warming occurred (approximately 60-25 kyr cal. BP). We integrated the morphological, pedogeochemical, clay fraction mineralogy, micromorphological and δC-13 analyses of five paleosols from S2 to verify the paleoenvironmental conditions of the Araucaria Plateau and its correspondence with the paleoclimatic phenomena that were identified on a global scale during MIS 3 in the Southern Hemisphere. We obtained the following conclusions: a) the properties of paleosols reflect pedological processes that are adjusted to the paleoenvironmental conditions at the end of MIS 3 and the transition to MIS 2 (Last Glacial Maximum); b) aplasmogenic partial acidolysis was the predominant pedogeochemical process during MIS 3; c) during this period, the water regime was sufficiently humid to develop hydromorphic horizons in the valley bottoms of the entire drainage network to the valley heads; d) regional change toward a drier hydric regime occurred in MIS 2, when erosion of the paleosols predominated; and e) in MIS 1 (current Holocene interglacial), burial of the paleosols and relief inversion occurred, which resulted in fossilization of the valleys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fake controversies have influenced policy making on health and environmental issues for decades, resulting in major implementation setbacks worldwide. As a case study, in this paper we examine fake controversies produced by a small group of active Brazilian researchers that have seriously impacted environmental conservation, particularly in issues related to deforestation and climate change. Based on the literature, we develop a typology of strategies deployed in fake controversies, which include manufacturing uncertainty, misusing scientific credentials, and disregarding scientific literature. Afterwards, we examine the influence of this group of contrarians at the National Congress. We then analyze the fake controversies promoted by these contrarians and argue that, to properly understand them, we need to consider a strategy so far overlooked in the literature: the manufacture of "pseudo-facts", namely, affirmations at odds with the established literature but that strives to appear as scientific facts. Unlike other contexts, in which contrarians have mainly sought to cast doubt on consensual issues by arguing that there are still considerable uncertainties surrounding them, in Brazil pseudo-facts on deforestation have been produced and published outside the peer-reviewed literature. We conclude the study with recommendations on how to oppose fake scientific controversies that threaten environmental conservation in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper assesses 13 different inputs for biodiesel production and shows that the highest cost currently associated with the processing of residual resources, as well as their small production scale, are compensated by their smaller procurement costs, by their immediate availability in the urban centers and by their larger potential for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Biodiesel production from residues can meet all technical international specifications, even the esterification process. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the methodology used in this study, allows for the building of an efficiency index up through linear programming with multiple inputs and outputs, enabling the integration of sustainable development dimensions. The experts' conclusions were arrived at through restrictions on virtual weighting, with findings that allow the grading of alternatives. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents preliminary results of paleoclimatic signatures of conifer woods during the deposition of the basal Crato and topmost Romualdo members of the Santana Formation within the Tropical Equatorial Hot Arid Belt (late Aptian, Araripe Basin, Brazil). Analysis was carried out using standard thin sections, and the anatomical details were studied in transmitted light. The wood growth pattern from the lowermost laminated lacustrine carbonate level of the Crato Member was characterized by the absence of true growth rings and the common presence of wood growth interruptions, and could be linked to a tropical, equable but erratically humid environment. In an interlayered fine-to-coarse sandstone level attributed to a fluvio-deltaic interval, the wood growth pattern was homogeneous, lacking true growth rings, with weakly delineated growth interruptions over long radial distances. In this level the growth pattern could be related with a transition to a more equable tropical climate during a relatively humid period. In contrast, the wood pattern from the carbonate succession of the uppermost Romualdo Member, interpreted as a lagoon area with marine influence, showed true growth rings with abrupt ring boundaries and rings of variable width, also including frequent growth interruptions. This pattern could be linked to a monsoonal-like climate, subjected to distinct cyclical conditions and periodical droughts during the growing season. • Preliminary wood growth data showed changing climate along the Santana Formation. • A tropical, erratically humid climate was inferred for the lacustrine Crato Member. • Equable humid conditions occurred in the fluvio-deltaic Crato Member. • A tropical monsoon-like climate was inferred for Romualdo Member. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper evaluates the contribution of 75 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects for technology transfer initiatives and for promotion of adoption of cleaner technologies. A documentary content analysis model was developed to acquire secondary data from the 75 Project Design Documents. Technology transfer as a benefit has only 28% share and not more than 21% of the projects led to implementation of cleaner technologies. In conclusion, CDM projects in Brazil have not encouraged a cleaner model of development through cooperation among industrialized and developing countries, as they were expected to do. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: During fieldwork carried out in January 2009 at Aurora do Tocantins (Tocantins State, northern Brazil), we recovered a fragmentary right maxilla (UNIRIO-PM 1006) of Catagonus stenocephalus from a sedimentary deposit of presumed late Pleistocene age in a karstic cave. This paper aims to: (1) provide the first record of C. stenocephalus in the northern region of Brazil (and consequently, also the northernmost one); (2) update the geographic distribution of C. stenocephalus; (3) present a date for the specimen; and (4) discuss the palaeoenvironmental and palaeobiogeographical implications of the finding. The species C. stenocephalus (Lund) is known from the Bonaerian (middle Pleistocene) and Lujanian (late Pleistocene to earliest Holocene) ages in Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and Bolivia. The new record presented here extends the geographical distribution of C. stenocephalus more than 1000km north from the former northernmost record (caves of Lagoa Santa region). Peccaries of the genus Catagonus have several morphological features associated with cursorial habits in relatively open and dry environments. The new distributional range of C. stenocephalus is coincident with the Chacoan subregion, characterized by dry climates and open areas. As the studied material comes from the top of the carbonate layer, this may suggest that the deposition of the C. stenocephalus remains described here is synchronous with the onset of a wetter climate phase. This argument is also in accordance with the datation results, around 20ky BP, just after the last glacial maximum. This increasingly wet climate, which may also be related to the climatic changes that occurred during the late Pleistocene/early Holocene, could be a factor in the extinction of C. stenocephalus in South America. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature that analyses the determinants and measurement of Technological Capabilities (TCs) with empirical evidence on Argentina, Brazil and Chile. Based on the World Bank''s Investment Climate database, the study covers firms from the manufacturing sector. We first construct a Capability Score to provide a preliminary measure of Technological Capabilities at the firm level. We then test it econometrically to explore the determinants of TCs and exports and evaluate their reciprocal relationship through a Two Stage Probit. Our results show that exports and TCs significantly and positively influence each other in some of these countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper combines hydrological observations and modelling results of a semi arid catchment in Brazil that could lead to a better understanding of the hydrology of similar catchments in semi-arid regions. The Tapacurá catchment (area 470.5km2) in the Northeast of Brazil was selected for this study. The Distributed Catchment Scale Model, DiCaSM, was calibrated and validated for the stream flows of the Tapacurá catchment. The model performance was further tested by comparing simulated and observed scaled soil moisture. The results showed the ability of the model to simulate the stream flow and the scaled soil moisture. The simulated impacts of climate change of low emission (B1) scenarios, on the worst perspective, indicated the possibility of reduction in surface water availability by −13.90%, −22.63% and −32.91% in groundwater recharge and by −4.98%, −14.28% and −20.58% in surface flows for the time spans 2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099, respectively. This would cause severe impacts on water supply in the region. Changing the land use, for example by reforestation of part of the catchment area which is currently arable land, would lead to a decrease in both groundwater recharge by −4.2% and stream flow by −2.7%. Changing land use from vegetables to sugar cane would result in decreasing groundwater recharge by almost −11%, and increasing stream flow by almost 5%. The combination of possible impacts of climate change and land use requires a proper plan for water resources management and mitigation strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This invited review paper tends to summarise the results based on the variability of occurrence of temperature extremes in South America. The first thing to note is that there is a geographical imbalance with respect to the number of published studies on temperature extremes. Most of the results come from the southern part of South America, east of the Andes, and a few from the northern part of the continent and for the Altiplano. The workshop organised by the ETCCDMI in Brazil was the first time to have the opportunity to collect information in a regional way and present trends in extreme daily temperatures. A better geographical picture enhanced with more data show significant geographical trends in warm (positive) and cold (negative) nights over Southern South America and over the northern South America coast. All other studies based on smaller regions also agree in finding the most significant trends in the evolution of the minimum temperature, with positive trends in almost all studies on the occurrence of warm nights (or hot extremes of minimum temperature) and negative trend in the cold extremes of the minimum. On the other hand, there is little agreement on the variability of maximum temperature. Generally the maximum temperature in southern South America has decreased, in opposition to the case of northern South America where it has increased. Strong decadal and interannual variability have been found in the occurrence of cold extremes. Reanalysis and climate models underestimate the intensity of extremes, mainly near the Andes. The studies trying to understand the dynamics of the circulation that leads to the occurrence of these extremes are analysed from its occurrence in almost all scales from the synoptic, intraseasonal, seasonal, annual, and multi-year linear trend with different methodologies, also, indentifying the local and remote forcing. A gap was found in studies that relate some specific local forcing (like changes in land use) and compare it with the remote ones. Different aspects of the occurrence of the temperature extremes are still missing in some regions of the continent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper criticizes the progress of the Brazilian government in preventing greenhouse gas emissions originating in urban areas. In 2009, Brazil approved its “National Policy on Climate Change”, complementing the 2008s National Plan on Climate Change (NPCC). In these documents, the federal government established measures to be undertaken in order to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, focusing on deforestation. However, the federal government should have regulated urban emissions, since the present Brazilian urbanization context, with big metropolises and the gradual migration of the population to the suburbs, represents a burden on climate change. With this new reality, transport and electricity use tend to grow, with the consequent increase in emissions. On the other hand, the municipalities are responsible for most city planning and transportation policies in Brazil. Pressed by their daily needs, they show little concern towards climate change and do not include the regulation of major sources of emissions among their priorities. Consequently, the municipalities are inefficient in preventing climate change. There are two main explanations for that: they do not have the know-how to prevent emissions; and they do not share this political agenda, since the impact of climate change is seldom acknowledged in the city where the emissions occur. Therefore, the central government has a role to play in regulating urban emissions. The study concludes that the National Plan and the National Policy, being federal documents, should have addressed urban emissions throughout the nation. Ultimately, they should be revised to guide city planners into planning greener cities. In order to succeed in this task, this legislation should not only require the reduction of emissions, but it should also indicate to the municipalities how they might achieve the reduction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Green roofs have been investigated as a bioclimatic strategy to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. Quantitative data on this subject are still needed for many specific climatic conditions. This paper deals with the investigation of the green roof thermal performance of an experimental single-family residence in Florianópolis (SC, Brazil), a southern city with a temperate climate. Field measurements during a warm period (01-March-2008–07-March-2008) and during a cold period (25-May-2008–31-May-2008) included internal air temperature of rooms, internal and external surface temperature of three types of roofs (green, ceramic and metallic), heat fluxes through these roofs, green roof''s temperature profile, water volumetric content in substrate layer and meteorological data. During the warm period, the green roof reduced heat gain by 92–97% in comparison to ceramic and metallic roofs, respectively, and enhanced the heat loss to 49 and 20%. During the cold period, the green roof reduced heat gain by 70 and 84%, and reduced the heat loss by 44 and 52% in comparison to ceramic and metallic roofs, respectively. From the derived data it has been confirmed that green roof contributes to the thermal benefits and energy efficiency of the building in temperate climate conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In several countries biodiesel blending programs have been implemented looking for reduction in fossil fuel dependence and environmental benefits, including climate change mitigation. The current global biodiesel production, from different fatty raw materials, reaches about 6 billion liters per year and represents 10% of whole biofuel production. Nevertheless, in many cases the actual advantages of biodiesel production and usage are not clearly evaluated. Essentially, the feasibility of biodiesel production can be determined by its efficiency in solar energy conversion, as indicated by agro-industrial productivity and energy balance parameters, which expresses a relative demand of natural resources (land and energy) to produce biofuel. Taking into account the Brazilian conditions, in this paper an assessment of biodiesel production is presented, comparing four different productive systems. According to this evaluation, soybean and castor are limitedly feasible, whereas tallow and palm oil represent more suitable alternatives. The selection of an efficient productive system is crucial for the rationality of biodiesel production. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate conditions, which may vary in light of possible global climate change (GCC). Long-term energy planning, however, does not normally take possible future GCC into consideration, which may turn out to be a risky exercise. In the case of Brazil, the untapped wind power potential is known to be impressive, provided that climate conditions remain the same over time. The focus of this study is to analyze some possible impacts of GCC on the wind power potential of Brazil, by simulating wind conditions associated with the IPCC A2 and B2 Scenarios. Results based on the HadCM3 general circulation model and the analysis of the country''s wind database indicate that the wind power potential in Brazil would not be jeopardized in the future due to possible new climate conditions. On the contrary, improved wind conditions are expected, particularly in the Northeast coast of the country. Therefore, investments in wind power generation can be an interesting way to expand renewable energy production in Brazil. However, given the large uncertainties associated with GCC models and scenarios, the findings of this paper should be viewed as a possibility rather than as a projection. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Efficient management of water and energy is an important goal of sustainable development for any nation. Streamflow forecasts, have been used in complex optimization models to maximize water use efficiency and electrical energy production. In this paper we develop a statistical model for the long term forecasts of hydroenergy inflow into the Brazilian hydropower system, which consists of more than 70 hydropower reservoirs. At present, the planning of reservoir operation and energy production in Brazil is made with no reliable long term (one season or longer lead times) streamflow forecasts. Here we use the NINO3 index and the main modes of the tropical Pacific thermocline structure as climate predictors in order to achieve skillfull forecasts at long leads. Cross-validated results show that about 50% of the total hydroenergy inflow can be predicted with moderate accuracy up to 20 month lead time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• We calibrated the DSSAT/CROPGRO for several soybean maturity groups. • Crop model showed good performance under different tropical conditions. • Water productivity increase can ensure the future growth of soybean yield. • Mean soybean yields increase likely in the future climate due to CO 2 increase. In the next decades, the population is expected to rise by more than two billion people, and the projections of climate change have been considered as one of the greatest future challenges for world food security. Soybean represents more than 60 % of all plant protein produced in the world, and Brazil is the largest world exporter and the second-largest producer. In this paper, we simulated soybean yields for 16 strategically selected agroclimatic zones (CZs) to represent Brazilian production. Experiments conducted throughout the country were used to calibrate the CROPGRO-Soybean model for Brazilian conditions, for the main maturity groups used in Brazil, to simulate current and 40 future climate scenarios, provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for 2050 in the both 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCP). We found soybean yield varying by +1 to +32 % across 16 CZs in the average scenario of future climate when compared to the current yields. Yet, we found an increase of about 5% in the yield production risk for RCP 8.5. The main reason for such results was associated with the positive effect of increasing CO 2 on crop water productivity, which overcomes the negative effects of temperature and water stress increases on rainfed Brazilian soybeans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Future impacts of LULC and climate on the streamflow and erosion by new approaches. • SWAT model was applied to estimate future runoff-erosion. • Future climate data generated using GCM coupled to regional circulation model. • The methodology contextualizes potentially significant hydrological changes. • The changes may impact the sustainability of water resources management. Water management in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone in Brazil is critically dependent on better understanding of potential future changes in streamflow and sediment dynamics. This paper evaluates both the future impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes and the impacts of climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield in the Tapacurá River basin in northeastern Brazil, using a novel combination of approaches. Projected climate data derived using global circulation model HadGEM2-ES were coupled to regional circulation model ETA-CPTEC/HadCM3 for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), with bias correction. Two future LULC scenarios were generated: (a) optimistic (current LULC), and (b) pessimistic (land use change trends continue), using the multilayer perceptron algorithm (MP). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to estimate future streamflow and erosion for different periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099). The SWAT model was calibrated for period of 1995–2003 and validated for 2004–2013. The results showed good accuracy in relation to R2, NSE and PBIAS for the calibration and validation of the runoff, as well as for the verification of the sediment yield. Simulations indicated significant increases in erosion for the pessimistic scenario under RCP 8.5, followed by the pessimistic scenario and RCP 4.5. Lower sediment yields occurred for the optimistic and RCP 8.5, with lower still for the optimistic and RCP 4.5. However, the latter estimates are still considerably higher than baseline conditions. Although higher flows are found for some scenarios, the increases in sediment yield have serious implications for reservoir siltation and storage reduction. Despite modeling uncertainty, the results demonstrate that the proposed methodology has promising scope to contextualize potentially significant regional hydrological changes which have implications for land and biodiversity management and the sustainability of water resources in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Low resolution of the continental sedimentary record is a common source of skepticism about the application of geomorphology and sedimentology to Quaternary studies. In spite of this, when supported by independent proxy data, geomorphology and sedimentology may favor palaeo-hydrologic interpretation. This paper associates geomorphologic, stratigraphic, sedimentologic, isotopic, palynologic and geochronologic data. The research was conducted in valley head sites in southern Brazilian highlands, under mild subtropical climate. The results point to environmental changes, the ages of which coincide to Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) 5b, 3, 2 and 1. Although late-Pleistocene temperatures and precipitation were lower than those of today, the study valley heads seem to have sustained locally wetter environments, which fed shallow soil–water saturated zones. These saturated zones are believed to have expanded during transitions between stadial and interstadial states, contributing to hillslope erosion and sedimentation regardless of the sign of the climatic change. The interior organization of holocenic slope-wash deposits suggests that the mid-Holocene climate was drier than today’s and was under the influence of seasonally contrasting precipitation regimes. The predominance of overland flow-related sedimentary records suggests that an excess of precipitation over evaporation influenced local palaeo-hydrology. This palaeo-hydrologic condition seems to have been recurrent and also explains the alternating periods of pedogenesis and sedimentation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Municipalities in developing countries can contribute to mitigating climate change and thereby benefit from reductions in the emissions of conventional pollutants and traffic jams or from improvements in waste management systems, amongst other local benefits. These benefits result from measures taken to reduce greenhouse gases emissions (or carbon sequestration) by two means: either measures taken to mitigate greenhouse gases emissions themselves and/or from the income obtained in the international carbon market. The evaluation of the current status of emissions and the potential for mitigation measures are based on various planning techniques, such as inventories and scenario building, as suggested in the paper. A brief report of the experience in making an inventory from secondary data and building up scenarios that has been undertaken in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is presented as a case study. Mitigation measures that are beneficial to the quality of city environments and suited to municipal administrations are also presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper attempts to reconstruct vegetation changes and to infer climate changes during the late Pleistocene and the Holocene in the southeast (Botucatu, Anhembi and Jaguariúna, São Paulo State) and centerwest of Brazil (Pontes e Lacerda, Mato Grosso State). The research approach included the use of carbon isotopes (13C and 14C) in soil organic matter (SOM) and the evaluation of charcoal distribution and its identification at the species level. Soils sampled in this study were located under natural vegetation, along the slopes of small hills. Charcoal was found predominantly between 150 and 50-cm depth, indicating a period of greater frequency of fires in the study areas, between 6000 and 3000 years BP. For the Botucatu, Anhembi and Pontes e Lacerda sites, the δ13C profiles suggest the predominance of C3 plants during the entire Holocene. The 13C patterns obtained at the Jaguariúna site that show a more significant presence of C4 plants compared to the other regions, suggest that this region has been drier than the others during the Holocene. These patterns also indicate the presence of a drier climate compared with present-day conditions at the Jaguariúna region during late Pleistocene until the middle Holocene. This study shows the complexity of vegetation dynamics in the southeast of Brazil during the Holocene. It also shows that the analyses of multiple soil cores representative of the main vegetation communities are necessary for paleovegetation studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Evaporation trends of tropical reservoirs in Brazil were investigated. • Both positive and negative trends in evaporation were observed. • In the industrial region, the negative trend was potentially caused by the impact of pollutant released to the atmosphere. • In the coastal region, the positive trend was related to increasing air temperature. This paper aims to analyze the trends (Mann-Kendall test) of evaporation and climatological variables, including air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed in four reservoirs located in the Brazilian Northeast. The evaporation was estimated through remote sensing using the Surface Energy Balance System for Water (AquaSEBS) model from 1985 to 2018. In addition, it was verified which meteorological parameter has the highest correlation (R2) with the evaporation in order to assess why this process is changing throughout the years in each reservoir. The model performed well, with root mean square error (RMSE) ≤ 1.25 mm/day, percent bias (PBIAS) ≤ 13.70% and coefficient of determination (R2) ≥ 0.51. One reservoir located closer to a coastal zone presented a positive trend (+0.24 mm/34 years), corroborating the measurements of a reference class A pan, and Penman-Monteith equation, while the others, located closer to industrial areas, displayed negative trends (−0.26 to −0.080 mm/34 years). This reduced evaporation was attributed to the impact of industrial pollutant release to the atmosphere, while the increasing effect in the other reservoir was due to its proximity to the coast, which implies an air renewal as the sea breeze contributes for an improvement in the air quality. The meteorological data also presented positive and negative correlations: Temperature exhibited a positive trend (+0.57 °C/34 years), whereas humidity (−4.83%) and wind speed (−0.29 m/s), a negative trend. Evaporation displayed moderate coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.31) with wind speed and humidity. Yet, the reduction of evaporation may be associated with a possible counterbalancing effect of wind speed over humidity. Overall, the results contribute to a better understanding of evaporation trends in a water-scarce region and can be used in a water resources management context as the increasing/reduction of evaporation might significantly impact water availability in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change effects can have significant impacts worldwide. Extreme events can modify water availability and agricultural production, making climate change planning an essential task. The National Institute for Space Research (INPE in Portuguese) in Brazil has made a large dataset of regional climate model outputs (simulations and projections) available, which opens up many possibilities of carrying out high-resolution climate change studies. However, there is still no performance evaluation of the model-derived rainfall output against high-resolution ground-based observation data considering the Brazilian biomes. This paper attempts to fill this gap and evaluates the simulated precipitation throughout Brazil. We used gridded observed precipitation data and historical climate simulations from the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5) and from the Hadley Center Global Environment Model, version 2 (HadGEM2-ES), which were downscaled by the Eta RCM (Regional Climate Model). For the overlapping period (1980–2005), there is good agreement (PBIAS up to 10%) of downscaled annual simulations for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes and large biases (reaching 40%) in the Pampa biome, compared to the observations. Our results showed that HadGEM2-ES is capable of representing long-term mean monthly precipitation for large areas well, such as the Amazon and Cerrado. Furthermore, the Eta RCM has considerably improved the driving GCM MIROC5 simulations. In conclusion, we recommend using the HadGEM2-ES simulations for the Amazon, Eta/HadGEM2-ES for the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Pampa, and Eta/MIROC5 for the Caatinga and Pantanal. Our study provides an overview of two downscaled simulation datasets in Brazil that may help verify the models' suitability for further climate change assessments. • We evaluated the so far most detailed precipitation projections for Brazil. • We compared the Eta RCM and driving GCMs against high-resolution observed dataset. • HadGEM2-ES GCM can represent the precipitation for large areas, such as the Amazon. • Eta RCM considerably improved the MIROC5 GCM precipitation simulations in all biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]