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This paper explores the spatial variation of land prices in Belgium. The originality of the methodology is threefold: (1) to work at the spatial extent of an entire country, (2) to compute several accessibility measures to all jobs and several representations of the environmental amenities and, more importantly, (3) to test the hypothesis that jobs influence land prices only in the same linguistic region. Spatial autocorrelation is accounted for by estimating spatial models. The results show that the linguistic border acts as a strong barrier in the spatial pattern of land prices and that environmental variables have no significant effect at this scale of spatial analysis.

Edogawa Mill is located in the southeastern part of Metropolitan Tokyo along the Edogawa River which divides the border of Tokyo and Chiba Prefecture. Edogawa River is very significant for Edogawa Mill because its water is used not only as industrial water for Edogawa Mill, but is also used as a means of transportation of major materials such as pulp, oil and so on.The main equipment in Edogawa Mill are a 60 t/d CGP plant, 2 fourdrinier machines for manufacturing 120 tons per day of printing paper, and 1 high-speed ultraformer machine for manufacturing 270 tons of paperboard per day.The mill area has about 157, 000 m2 and a corrugating plant and a Central Research Laboratory are also located within its premises. There are a total of 471 employees working there.Since the mill is located in the urban area, it is advantageous for procurement of materials and for transportation of products, however, on the other hand, strict control for the protection of the environment is required. Therfore, for the purpose of keeping good harmony with the community, we have positively invested in facilities for pollution abatement during the past several years.

Marusumi Paper Mfg. Co., Ltd. is located in the city of Kawanoe, which is so famous in Japan as one of massive paper-production centers.The city is in the eastern end of Ehime Prefecture, and her northern shore is washed by calm waves of the Seto Island Sea.And the city increases her significant weight upon economical activities of western part of our country, as her location being close to each industrial centers such as Osaka, Hiroshima, Kyushu and their satellites.

West Nile virus (WNV) is continuously spreading across Europe, and other continents, i.e. North and South America and many other regions of the world. Despite the overall sporadic nature of outbreaks with cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) in Europe, the spillover events have increased and the virus has been introduced into new areas. The high genetic diversity of the virus, with remarkable phenotypic variation, and its endemic circulation in several countries, require an intensification of the integrated and multidisciplinary research efforts built under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union (FP7). It is important to better clarify several aspects of WNV circulation in Europe, including its ecology, genomic diversity, pathogenicity, transmissibility, diagnosis and control options, under different environmental and socio-economic scenarios. Identifying WNV endemic as well as infection-free areas is becoming a need for the development of human vaccines and therapeutics and the application of blood and organs safety regulations. This review, produced as a joint initiative among European experts and based on analysis of 118 scientific papers published between 2004 and 2014, provides the state of knowledge on WNV and highlights the existing knowledge and research gaps that need to be addressed with high priority in Europe and neighbouring countries.

As part of the Springer Nature Content Sharing Initiative, you can publicly share full-text access to a view-only version of your paper by using thefollowing SharedIt link: https://rdcu.be/cCd8u; International audience; The study of groundwater resources using pumping test data is usually carried out with the Theis solution, which enables the hydraulic parameters of porous aquifers such as the transmissivity and storage coefficient, to be estimated from the water-level drawdown. However, the data fitting can fail and provide only an indication that the pumped aquifer has a complex structure. Here, a diagnostic plot on log-derivative drawdown is used to identify flow regimes and thus aquifer heterogeneities, leading to plausible conceptual models. Nevertheless, the diagnostic plot is insufficient and must be accompanied by further modelling because of the nonuniqueness of the drawdown log-derivative signal. The proposed approach is applied to an alluvial plain in France, known to be complex because the deposition processes change over time, resulting in channel belts limited by low-permeability deposits in the floodplain or three-dimensional (3D) interconnected structures. Six analytical models were used to simulate drawdown and its derivatives during a three-day transient pumping test. The diagnostic performed on the pumping well showed that four conceptual models, with highly contrasted hydrodynamic behaviours, may correspond to the diagnostic. The joint use of pumping-well and observation-well data allowed the only appropriate model to be identified—a dual-permeability model characterizing a multilayer aquifer. The conceptual model matched the geological observations in boreholes and corroborates the fluvial sequence stratigraphy of the alluvial plain. The pumping test used here is a tool to explore the 3D architecture of the fluvial reservoir at the scale of the depositional sequence in the floodplain.; El estudio de los recursos hídricos subterráneos a partir de los datos de los ensayos de bombeo suele realizarse con la solución de Theis, que permite estimar los parámetros hidráulicos de los acuíferos porosos, como la transmisividad y el coeficiente de almacenamiento, a partir del descenso del nivel del agua. Sin embargo, el ajuste de los datos puede no funcionar y proporcionar sólo una indicación de que el acuífero bombeado tiene una estructura compleja. En este caso, se utiliza un diagrama de diagnóstico de la depresión logarítmica derivada para identificar los regímenes de flujo y, por tanto, las heterogeneidades del acuífero, lo que conduce a modelos conceptuales plausibles. Sin embargo, el diagrama de diagnóstico es insuficiente y debe ir acompañado de una modelización adicional debido a la no unicidad de la señal log-derivada de la depresión. El enfoque propuesto se aplica a una llanura aluvial en Francia, conocida por su complejidad debido a que los procesos de deposición cambian con el tiempo, dando lugar a franjas de canales limitadas por depósitos de baja permeabilidad en la llanura de inundación o a estructuras tridimensionales (3D) interconectadas. Se utilizaron seis modelos analíticos para simular la depresión y sus derivados durante un ensayo de bombeo transitorio de tres días. El diagnóstico realizado en el pozo de bombeo mostró que pueden corresponder cuatro modelos conceptuales, con comportamientos hidrodinámicos muy contrastados. La utilización conjunta de los datos del pozo de bombeo y del pozo de observación permitió identificar el único modelo apropiado: un modelo de doble permeabilidad que caracteriza un acuífero multicapa. El modelo conceptual coincidió con las observaciones geológicas en pozos de sondeo y corrobora la estratigrafía de la secuencia fluvial de la llanura aluvial. El ensayo de bombeo utilizado aquí es una herramienta para explorar la arquitectura 3D del depósito fluvial a escala de la secuencia deposicional en la llanura aluvial.; L’étude des ressources en eau souterraine à partir de données d’essais de pompage est généralement réalisée avec la solution de Theis, qui permet d’estimer les paramètres hydrauliques des aquifères poreux, tels que la transmissivité et le coefficient d’emmagasinement, à partir du rabattement du niveau d’eau. Cependant, l’ajustement des données peut échouer et fournir seulement une indication relative à la complexité de la structure de l’aquifère sollicité par pompage. Ici, un tracé de diagnostic de la dérivé du rabattement selon une échelle logarithmique est utilisé pour identifier les régimes d’écoulement et donc les hétérogénéités de l’aquifère, conduisant à des modèles conceptuels plausibles. Néanmoins, le diagnostic de puits est insuffisant et doit être accompagné d’une modélisation plus poussée en raison de la non-unicité du signal de la dérivée du rabattement selon une échelle logarithmique. L’approche proposée est appliquée à une plaine alluviale en France, connue pour être complexe car les processus de dépôt ont évolué au cours du temps, donnant lieu à des zones de chenaux limitées par des dépôts peu perméables dans la plaine d’inondation ou à des structures tridimensionnelles (3D) interconnectées. Six modèles analytiques ont été utilisés pour simuler le rabattement et ses dérivés pendant un essai de pompage transitoire de trois jours. Le diagnostic réalisé sur le puits de pompage a montré que quatre modèles conceptuels, aux comportements hydrodynamiques très contrastés, peuvent correspondre au diagnostic. L’utilisation conjointe des données des puits de pompage et des puits d’observation a permis d’identifier le seul modèle approprié - un modèle à double perméabilité caractérisant un aquifère multicouche. Le modèle conceptuel correspond aux observations géologiques dans les forages et corrobore la stratigraphie séquentielle fluviale de la plaine alluviale. L’essai de pompage utilisé ici est un outil permettant d’explorer l’architecture 3D du réservoir fluvial à l’échelle de la séquence de dépôt dans la plaine d’inondation.; O estudo dos recursos hídricos subterrâneos utilizando dados de teste de vazão é comumente resolvido por meio da equação de Theis, o que permite que os parâmetros hidráulicos dos aquíferos porosos, como a transmissividade e o coeficiente de armazenamento, possam ser estimados a partir do rebaixamento do nível d’água. Porém, o ajuste dos dados pode falhar, indicando apenas que o aquífero bombeado apresenta uma estrutura complexa. Aqui, um gráfico de diagnóstico da derivada logarítmica do rebaixamento é usado para identificar o regime de fluxo e, portanto, a heterogeneidade do aquífero, levando a modelos conceituais plausíveis. Ainda assim, o gráfico de diagnóstico é insuficiente e deve ser acompanhado de mais modelos, devido ao sinal não único da derivada logarítmica do rebaixamento. A abordagem proposta foi utilizada em uma planície aluvial na França, conhecida por ser complexa, pois os processos de deposição mudam com o tempo, o que resulta em um cinturão de canais limitados por depósitos de baixa permeabilidade na planície de inundação ou por estruturas tridimensionais (3D) interconectadas. Seis modelos analíticos foram utilizados para simular o rebaixamento, e suas funções derivadas, durante um teste de bombeamento transiente de 3 dias. O diagnóstico simulado para o poço de bombeamento mostrou que quatro modelos conceituais, cada um com comportamento hidrodinâmico contrastante, podem corresponder ao diagnóstico. A junção dos dados do poço de bombeamento e dos dados de poço de observação permitiu a identificação do único modelo apropriado – um modelo de permeabilidade dual caracterizando um aquífero multicamadas. O modelo conceitual coincide com as observações da geologia dos poços e corrobora com a sequência estratigráfica fluvial da planície aluvial. O teste de bombeamento utilizado é uma ferramenta para explorar a arquitetura 3D do reservatório fluvial na escala da sequência deposicional da planície de inundação.; 利用抽水试验数据研究地下水资源通常采用 Theis 解, 它可以根据水位降深估算多孔介质含水层的水力参数, 如传导系数和蓄水系数。然而, 数据拟合可能会失败, 并且只能表明抽水含水层具有复杂的结构。在这里, 对数导数降深的诊断图用于识别流态, 从而识别含水层的异质性, 由此可形成合理的概念模型。然而, 由于降深对数导数信号的非唯一性, 仅用诊断图是不够的, 必须再建模分析。所提出的方法应用于法国众所周知复杂的冲积平原, 由于沉积过程随时间变化, 导致河岸带受到漫滩中低渗透性沉积物或三维 (3D) 互连结构的影响。在为期三天的非稳定抽水测试期间, 六个解析解模型用于模拟降深及其导数。抽水井上进行的诊断表明, 具有高度异质的水动力行为的四个概念模型可能与诊断相符。抽水井和观测井数据的联合使用可确定唯一合适的模型, 即表征多层含水层的双渗透模型。概念模型与钻孔中的地质观察相匹配, 并证实了冲积平原的河流相地层。此处使用的抽水试验是在漫滩沉积相尺度上探索冲积相储层 3D 结构的工具。

BackgroundAlthough it is accepted that long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) use is an effective means to prevent malaria, children aged 5 to 15 years do not appear to be sufficiently protected in Madagascar; the malaria prevalence is highest in this age group. The purpose of this research is to summarize recent qualitative studies describing LLIN use among the Malagasy people with a focus on children aged 5–15 years.MethodsQualitative data from three studies on malaria conducted between 2012 and 2016 in 10 districts of Madagascar were analysed. These studies cover all malaria epidemiological profiles and 10 of the 18 existing ethnic groups in Madagascar. A thematic analysis was conducted on the collected data from semi-structured interviews, direct observation data, and informal interviews.ResultsA total of 192 semi-structured interviews were conducted. LLINs are generally perceived positively because they protect the health and well-being of users. However, regional representations of mosquito nets may contribute to LLIN lower use by children over 5 years of age including the association between married status and LLIN use, which leads to the refusal of unmarried young men to sleep under LLINs; the custom of covering the dead with a mosquito net, which leads to fear of LLIN use; and taboos governing sleeping spaces for siblings of opposite sexes, which leads to LLIN shortages in households. Children under 5 years of age are known to be the most vulnerable age group for acquiring malaria and, therefore, are prioritized for LLIN use when there are limited supplies in households. In contrast, children over 5 years of age, who are perceived to be at less risk for malaria, often sleep without LLINs.ConclusionsPerceptions, social practices and regional beliefs regarding LLINs and vulnerability to malaria contribute to the nonuse of LLINs among children over 5 years of age in Madagascar. Modifying LLIN policies to account for these factors may increase LLIN use in this age group and reduce disease burden.

International audience; Madagascar has experienced significant environmental change since 1960, particularly through forest clearing for agricultural expansion. Climatic patterns are undergoing change in Madagascar as well, with increasing temperatures, droughts, and cyclonic activity. The impact of these environmental and climatic changes will pose threats to food availability, income generation, and local ecosystems, with significant potential effects on the spatial and temporal distribution of disease burden. This study seeks to describe the health status of a large sample of geographically and socially diverse Malagasy communities through multiple clinical measurements, detailed social surveys, and paired data on regional variation in local ecologies. With an increased understanding of the current patterns of variation in human health and nutrition, future studies will be better able to identify associations with climate and anticipate and mitigate the burdens expected from larger, longer-term changes. Our mixed-method approach included an observational cross-sectional study. Research subjects were men, women, and children from 1,125 households evenly distributed across 24 communities in four ecologically and socio-demographically distinct regions of Madagascar. For these 1,125 households, all persons of both sexes and all ages therein (for a total of 6,292 individuals) were recruited into the research study and a total of 5,882 individuals were enrolled. Through repeated social survey recalls and focus group meetings, we obtained social and demographic data, including broad categories of seasonal movements, and characterized the fluctuation of income generation, food production and dietary consumption. Through collection of clinical and biological samples for both point-of-care diagnoses and laboratory analyses, we obtained detailed occurrence (and importantly co-occurrence) data on micronutrient nutritional, infectious disease, and non-communicable disease status. Our research highlights the highly variable social, cultural, and environmental contexts of health conditions in Madagascar, and the tremendous inter-regional, inter-community, and intra-community variation in nutritional and disease status. More than 30% of the surveyed population was afflicted by anemia and 14% of the population had a current malaria infection. This type of rich metadata associated with a suite of biological samples and nutritional and disease outcome data should allow disentangling some of the underlying drivers of ill health across the changing landscapes of Madagascar.

Background Deforestation and land use change is widespread in Madagascar, altering local ecosystems and creating opportunities for disease vectors, such as the Anopheles mosquito, to proliferate and more easily reach vulnerable, rural populations. Knowledge of risk factors associated with malaria infections is growing globally, but these associations remain understudied across Madagascar’s diverse ecosystems experiencing rapid environmental change. This study aims to uncover socioeconomic, demographic, and ecological risk factors for malaria infection across regions through analysis of a large, cross-sectional dataset. Methods The objectives were to assess (1) the ecological correlates of malaria vector breeding through larval surveys, and (2) the socioeconomic, demographic, and ecological risk factors for malaria infection in four ecologically distinct regions of rural Madagascar. Risk factors were determined using multilevel models for the four regions included in the study. Results The presence of aquatic agriculture (both within and surrounding communities) is the strongest predictive factor of habitats containing Anopheles larvae across all regions. Ecological and socioeconomic risk factors for malaria infection vary dramatically across study regions and range in their complexity. Conclusions Risk factors for malaria transmission differ dramatically across regions of Madagascar. These results may help stratifying current malaria control efforts in Madagascar beyond the scope of existing interventions.

International audience; Ambient sound scenes typically comprise multiple short events occurring on top of a somewhat stationary background. We consider the task of separating these events from the background, which we call foreground-background ambient sound scene separation. We propose a deep learning-based separation framework with a suitable feature normaliza-tion scheme and an optional auxiliary network capturing the background statistics, and we investigate its ability to handle the great variety of sound classes encountered in ambient sound scenes, which have often not been seen in training. To do so, we create single-channel foreground-background mixtures using isolated sounds from the DESED and Audioset datasets, and we conduct extensive experiments with mixtures of seen or unseen sound classes at various signal-to-noise ratios. Our experimental findings demonstrate the generalization ability of the proposed approach.

At world level, the current official number of large camelids cannot be determined exactly (it is estimated to be more than 35 million heads), and the role of camels in the livestock economy is highly variable. The only reliable statistics are provided by FAO since 1961. According to these data, five different patterns of demographic changes have been observed. In countries marked by a regular or drastic decline of their camelid population, a tendency to re-increase has been in force since the beginning of the century, except in India. Generally, countries marked by a sharp recent increase in their large camelid population have implemented a census and readjusted their data. Many inconsistencies occur in available data, most notably cases arising from changes occurring in state status (for example secession of Eritrea, Soviet Union collapse). Moreover, large camelid stocks in Australia, in countries of new camel establishment (Western countries) and those related to the expansion of camel farming, notably in Africa, are not recorded in the international database. In addition, there is no distinction between dromedary and Bactrian data. The present large camelid population in the world is probably more than 40 million and could reach 60 million after 25 years from now if the current demographic trend is maintained.

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

This paper studies the effect of transportation networks on spatial inequality within metropolitan areas. It uses a spatial equilibrium model featuring nonhomotheticities and worker heterogeneity, allowing to capture rich patterns of workers sorting on commuting costs and amenities. The model is calibrated for the Paris urban area. Counterfactual simulations study the effects of a) the Regional Express Rail and b) restricting car use in the city center. Despite a strong contribution to suburbanization and reducing welfare inequality, the public transport network plays no role in reducing income segregation. The effects of banning cars depends critically on the response of residential amenities in the city. If it is low enough, it reduces income disparities between Paris and its suburbs at the cost of a substantial welfare loss. If it is high enough, the policy creates welfare gains but steepens the income gradient.

International audience; Yellow Fever (YF) remains a major public health issue in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America, despite the availability of an effective vaccine. In Africa, most YF outbreaks are reported in West Africa. However, urban outbreaks occurred in 2016 in both Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and imported cases were reported in Chinese workers coming back from Africa. In Central Africa, Cameroon and the Republic of Congo host a high proportion of non-vaccinated populations increasing the risk of urban outbreaks. The main vector is Aedes aegypti and possibly, Aedes albopictus, both being anthropophilic and domestic mosquitoes. Here, we provide evidence that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Cameroon and the Republic of Congo are able to transmit Yellow fever virus (YFV) with higher rates of infection, dissemination, and transmission for Ae. aegypti. We conclude that the potential of both Aedes species to transmit YFV could increase the risk of urban YF transmission and urge public health authorities to intensify their efforts to control domestic vectors, and extend vaccine coverage to prevent major YFV outbreak.

International audience; Urban agriculture is an increasingly popular approach to addressing negative social and health effects of cities. Social benefits of urban agriculture include improved health and wellbeing, economic opportunities, social cohesion, and education. However, the extent to which urban agriculture participants are motivated by or experience these impacts has rarely been measured quantitatively, especially across the many different types of urban agriculture. We analyzed survey data from 74 urban agriculture sites in France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, and the United States to quantitatively assess the relationships between urban agriculture types, farmers and gardeners' motivations, and the social impacts of urban agriculture. Through factor analysis, we established valid and reliable measurements of participants' motivations and impacts. We identified four scales: general wellbeing impacts, nutritional health impacts, economic interests, and socialization motivations. Through multivariate analysis of variance, we document significant differences in motivations and reported impacts across types of urban agriculture. Finally, we conducted a multilevel multivariate analysis to explore the predictors of general wellbeing impacts. Participants with stronger economic interests, stronger socialization motivations, and who are owners or primary operators of their plots would be predicted to report greater general wellbeing impacts of urban agriculture. These results provide data about the impacts of urban agriculture projects that enable urban planners and policymakers to maximize the desired social benefits of urban agriculture.

Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease endemic in tropical regions of Africa, where 90% of the global burden occurs, and Latin America. It is notoriously under-reported with uncertainty arising from a complex transmission cycle including a sylvatic reservoir and non-specific symptom set. Resulting estimates of burden, particularly in Africa, are highly uncertain. We examine two established models of yellow fever transmission within a Bayesian model averaging framework in order to assess the relative evidence for each model’s assumptions and to highlight possible data gaps. Our models assume contrasting scenarios of the yellow fever transmission cycle in Africa. The first takes the force of infection in each province to be static across the observation period; this is synonymous with a constant infection pressure from the sylvatic reservoir. The second model assumes the majority of transmission results from the urban cycle; in this case, the force of infection is dynamic and defined through a fixed value of R0 in each province. Both models are coupled to a generalised linear model of yellow fever occurrence which uses environmental covariates to allow us to estimate transmission intensity in areas where data is sparse. We compare these contrasting descriptions of transmission through a Bayesian framework and trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in order to assess each model’s evidence given the range of uncertainty in parameter values. The resulting estimates allow us to produce Bayesian model averaged predictions of yellow fever burden across the African endemic region. We find strong support for the static force of infection model which suggests a higher proportion of yellow fever transmission occurs as a result of infection from an external source such as the sylvatic reservoir. However, the model comparison highlights key data gaps in serological surveys across the African endemic region. As such, conclusions concerning the most prevalent transmission routes for yellow fever will be limited by the sparsity of data which is particularly evident in the areas with highest predicted transmission intensity. Our model and estimation approach provides a robust framework for model comparison and predicting yellow fever burden in Africa. However, key data gaps increase uncertainty surrounding estimates of model parameters and evidence. As more mathematical models are developed to address new research questions, it is increasingly important to compare them with established modelling approaches to highlight uncertainty in structures and data., Author summary Yellow fever (YF) is notoriously under reported due to non-specific symptom spectrum and the true burden is highly uncertain as a result of a complex transmission cycle. As such, estimates surrounding YF burden are highly uncertain and the mechanisms behind transmission are often unclear. We assess these mechanisms and the resulting uncertainty by estimating two existing models of YF transmission within a product space framework. This allows us to produce updated estimates of transmission intensity and to compare the relative support for each model given the data. We find strong support for a model assuming a static force of infection, approximating the constant infection pressure from the sylvatic reservoir of YF. We also highlight areas where data is sparse, often the same areas estimated to have especially high transmission intensity. This is the first robust multi-model approach to applied YF modelling and provides a framework that could be extended to other disease models.

Several questions remain regarding the timing and nature of the Neanderthal-anatomically modern human (AMH) transition in Europe. The situation in Eastern Europe is generally less clear due to the relatively few sites and a dearth of reliable radiocarbon dates. Claims have been made for both notably early AMH and notably late Neanderthal presence, as well as for early AMH (Aurignacian) dispersal into the region from Central/Western Europe. The Kostenki-Borshchevo complex (European Russia) of Early Upper Paleolithic (EUP) sites offers high-quality data to address these questions. Here we revise the chronology and cultural status of the key sites of Kostenki 17 and Kostenki 14. The Kostenki 17/II lithic assemblage shares important features with Proto-Aurignacian material, strengthening an association with AMHs. New radiocarbon dates for Kostenki 17/II of ∼41–40 ka cal BP agree with new dates for the recently excavated Kostenki 14/IVw, which shows some similarities to Kostenki 17/II. Dates of ≥41 ka cal BP from other Kostenki sites cannot be linked to diagnostic archaeological material, and therefore cannot be argued to date AMH occupation. Kostenki 14's Layer in Volcanic Ash assemblage, on the other hand, compares to Early Aurignacian material. New radiocarbon dates targeting diagnostic lithics date to 39–37 ka cal BP. Overall, Kostenki's early EUP is in good agreement with the archaeological record further west. Our results are therefore consistent with models predicting interregional penecontemporaneity of diagnostic EUP assemblages. Most importantly, our work highlights ongoing challenges for reliably radiocarbon dating the period. Dates for Kostenki 14 agreed with the samples' chronostratigraphic positions, but standard pre-treatment methods consistently produced incorrect ages for Kostenki 17/II. Extraction of hydroxyproline from bone collagen using preparative high-performance liquid chromatography, however, yielded results consistent with the samples' chronostratigraphic position and with the layer's archaeological contents. This suggests that for some sites compound-specific techniques are required to build reliable radiocarbon chronologies.

International audience; In order to define the Mesolithic populations that came to settle on the European Atlantic seaboard, it is essential to assess the duration and continuity of human occupation. Although our knowledge of the geographical distribution of these populations is largely truncated by archaeological bias, the presence of more than 240 Mesolithic shell middens along the European Atlantic coast enables us to establish an overview of the published data on the dwelling patterns (seasonal, permanent, recurrent or limited in time) of these groups of maritime hunter-gatherers. A review of the literature shows that information on human occupations is lacking for many known Mesolithic shell middens. Moreover, the data leading to the identification of settlement patterns prove to be very heterogeneous from one site to another. Marine molluscs play a special role among the artefacts used to define the attraction of human populations for the coast, and help us to understand settlement. Although molluscs represent a major component of Mesolithic shell middens, it has taken several decades for the analysis of these faunal remains to be considered from the outset in excavations. One of the questions addressed here is whether the diversity of faunal remains in these shell middens can be related to the duration of human occupations on the coast. This question is based on the idea that people staying in the same settlement for several seasons can explore the surrounding area in greater detail. In this paper we observe that the diversity of faunal remains, including seashells, is not only dependent on the way of life of coastal people and settlement duration. It also affects other factors, such as the accessibility of more or less diversified environments and their resources in the vicinity of settlements and the degree of adaptability of humans exploiting similar resources.

Background Aedes-borne diseases as dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever are an emerging problem worldwide, being transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Lack of up to date information about the distribution of Aedes species hampers surveillance and control. Global databases have been compiled but these did not capture data in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), and any models built using these datasets fail to identify highly suitable areas where one or both species may occur. The first objective of this study was therefore to update the existing Ae. aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1895) compendia and the second objective was to generate species distribution models targeted to the EMR. A final objective was to engage the WHO points of contacts within the region to provide feedback and hence validate all model outputs. Methods The Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus compendia provided by Kraemer et al. (Sci Data 2:150035, 2015; Dryad Digit Repos, 2015) were used as starting points. These datasets were extended with more recent species and disease data. In the next step, these sets were filtered using the Köppen–Geiger classification and the Mahalanobis distance. The occurrence data were supplemented with pseudo-absence data as input to Random Forests. The resulting suitability and maximum risk of establishment maps were combined into hard-classified maps per country for expert validation. Results The EMR datasets consisted of 1995 presence locations for Ae. aegypti and 2868 presence locations for Ae. albopictus. The resulting suitability maps indicated that there exist areas with high suitability and/or maximum risk of establishment for these disease vectors in contrast with previous model output. Precipitation and host availability, expressed as population density and night-time lights, were the most important variables for Ae. aegypti. Host availability was the most important predictor in case of Ae. albopictus. Internal validation was assessed geographically. External validation showed high agreement between the predicted maps and the experts’ extensive knowledge of the terrain. Conclusion Maps of distribution and maximum risk of establishment were created for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for the WHO EMR. These region-specific maps highlighted data gaps and these gaps will be filled using targeted monitoring and surveillance. This will increase the awareness and preparedness of the different countries for Aedes borne diseases. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The aim of this comparative article is to show the differences between the visitors' purposes and habits in two national parks: Gauja National Park (GNP) in Latvia and Kasu Bramhananda Reddy National Park (KBR) in Hyderabad, Telangana in India. As well as that, the article aims at highlighting differences in the functional use of the national parks and their locations in the urban and rural context. The study has used the secondary data analysis, such as the analysis and overview of the literature, previously conducted studies and information sources, visitors’ surveys in the national parks, and the exploration of the park areas for the evaluation of tourism infrastructure. The results of the study show distinct differences in the national park functions, target groups and their needs. The main target group in KBR is local inhabitants of the million city, and the national park basically fulfils the function of a city park –it is a green area for passive and active (jogging) leisure rather than a nature tourism offer. GNP has three target groups: the local population for a healthy leisure time, domestic visitors and foreign visitors for nature and cultural purposes. Thus, KBR status as a national park is misleading for the international traveller. In the future research it is planned to compare GNP with a national park in India which is located outside the urban environment, carrying out an in-depth study of visitors’ opinion on the purpose and elements of infrastructure.

Human mobility is known to be distributed across several orders of magnitude of physical distances, which makes it generally difficult to endogenously find or define typical and meaningful scales. Relevant analyses, from movements to geographical partitions, seem to be relative to some ad-hoc scale, or no scale at all. Relying on geotagged data collected from photo-sharing social media, we apply community detection to movement networks constrained by increasing percentiles of the distance distribution. Using a simple parameter-free discontinuity detection algorithm, we discover clear phase transitions in the community partition space. The detection of these phases constitutes the first objective method of characterising endogenous, natural scales of human movement. Our study covers nine regions, ranging from cities to countries of various sizes and a transnational area. For all regions, the number of natural scales is remarkably low (2 or 3). Further, our results hint at scale-related behaviours rather than scale-related users. The partitions of the natural scales allow us to draw discrete multi-scale geographical boundaries, potentially capable of providing key insights in fields such as epidemiology or cultural contagion where the introduction of spatial boundaries is pivotal.

A complèter : pagination et WOS; International audience; Large wood (LW, or pieces of dead wood longer than 1 m and thicker than 10 cm in diameter) is a key element in forested streams, but its abundance has decreased worldwide as a result of snagging and clearing of riparian forests. Therefore, many restoration projects introduce LW into stream channels to enhance geomorphology, biotic communities, and ecosystem functioning. Because LW enhances the retention of organic matter and sediments, its restoration can reduce siltation in receiving reservoirs, although so far little information on this subject is available. We studied the effects of restoring the natural loading of LW in four streams in the Aiako Harria Natural Park (the Basque Country, Spain) in pool abundance, channel form, and storage of organic matter and sediments. In all reaches log jams induced the formation of new geomorphic features and changes in physical habitat, especially an increase in the number and size of pools and in the formation of gravel bars and organic deposits. The storage of organic matter increased 5- to 88-fold and streambed level rose 7 ± 4 to 21 ± 4 cm on average, resulting in the storage of 35.2 ± 19.7 to 711 ± 375 m3 (733–1400 m3 ha− 1 y− 1) of sediment per reach. Extrapolation of these results to the entire drainage basin suggests that basinwide restoration of LW loading would enhance the retention potential of stream channels by 66,817 ± 27,804 m3 (1075 m3 ha− 1 y− 1) of sediment and by 361 t (5.32 T ha− 1 y− 1) of organic matter, which represents 60% of the estimated annual inputs of sediments to the downstream Añarbe Reservoir and almost twice as much as the annual input of organic matter to the entire river network. Therefore, basinwide restoration of LW loading is a potentially important tool to manage catchments that feed reservoirs, where retention of sediments and organic matter can be considered important ecosystem services as they reduce reservoir siltation.

An increasing number of scientists as well as the public discuss the spread of invasive alien species that replace local species. One of such species is Sosnowsky’s hogweed that creates problems to land owners and managers as well as local residents in Rezekne municipality.The aim of the paper is to assess expert opinions on the application of control methods for Sosnowsky’s hogweed in Rezekne municipality. To achieve the aim, the following specific research tasks were set: 1) to describe the situation with the spread of Sosnowsky’s hogweed in Rezekne municipality; 2) to identify the most effective methods of control for Sosnowsky's hogweed and their application in Rezekne municipality by employing the expert method.Research methods used: monographic, descriptive, analysis, synthesis, data grouping and a sociological method – an expert survey/interview. Kendall’s W was employed to analyse the extent of agreement among the experts.The research results showed that in general the experts were quite unanimous (W=0.59) and regarded the combined method, chemical control (application of herbicides) and soil tillage as the most effective methods to control Sosnowsky's hogweed. Also, the experts supposed that land owners and managers in Rezekne municipality did not choose the most effective and efficient control methods for Sosnowsky's hogweed.The paper has been elaborated with the financial support of Rezekne Academy of Technologies provided through a research grant.

Erratum in - Correction: Temporal Patterns of Influenza A and B in Tropical and Temperate Countries: What Are the Lessons for Influenza Vaccination? PLoS One. 2016 May 2;11(5):e0155089. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0155089. Introduction: Determining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most reported cases (overall, A, and B) in the season. The duration of seasonal activity was assessed using the maximum proportion of influenza cases during three consecutive months and the minimum number of months with 80% of cases in the season. We also assessed whether co-circulation of A and B virus types affected the duration of influenza epidemics. Results: 212 influenza seasons and 571,907 cases were included from 30 countries. In tropical countries, the seasonal influenza activity lasted longer and the peaks of influenza A and B coincided less frequently than in temperate countries. Temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics were heterogeneous in the tropics, with distinct seasonal epidemics observed only in some countries. Seasons with co-circulation of influenza A and B were longer than influenza A seasons, especially in the tropics. Discussion: Our findings show that influenza seasonality is less well defined in the tropics than in temperate regions. This has important implications for vaccination programmes in these countries. High-quality influenza surveillance systems are needed in the tropics to enable decisions about when to vaccinate. The Global Influenza B Study is supported by an unrestricted research grant from Sanofi Pasteur. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

International audience; The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual model of saline intrusion within coastal karst aquifers by analyzing Rainfall–Discharge–Salinity data and to assess freshwater resources using a lumped modeling approach. In a first step, we analyzed 4 years of data (rainfall, discharge and salinity times series) ofthe Port-Miou brackish submarine spring in South France (400 km2). A conceptual model of the aquifer was then designed to differentiate a deep brackish reservoir and a shallower fresh one. Salinity variations at the spring are assumed to be controlled mainly by dilution originating from the fresh water in the shallower reservoir. In a second step, a lumped modeling approach was developed based on the conceptual model to simulate discharge as well as salinity over time. We proposed a reservoir-model to take into account slow and fast components in the shallower part of the aquifer and a saline intrusion in the deeper one. This Rainfall–Discharge–Salinity model was calibrated and validated for two periods of 1.5 years at a daily time step and was also tested to reproduce a multi-annual evolution of the available discharge and salinity time series. Good simulation results were obtained to reproduce water and mass budgets as well as discharge and salinity dynamics during several hydrological cycles. The simultaneous modeling of hydrodynamics and quality data showed the robustness of the model in addition to its easy implementation. Our results led us to propose a new type of seawater mixing mechanism for brackish springs: the dilution type, in addition to the well-known Ventury suction and Head balance types. The application of the lumped model on the Port-Miou brackish spring validated the hydrogeological processes deduced from experimental data, given an initial quantification of the freshwater resources available in such complex brackish karstic aquifers.

The paper covers the matter of body consciousness in modern urban surroundings. Somatic disciplines known as Freerunning and Parkour are presented as activities of a performative nature that can be understood and practised as means of redefining an aesthetic experience in modern urban surroundings.

International audience; Aim To obtain a plausible hypothesis for the historical distribution of North Atlantic right whales (NARWs) (Eubalaena glacialis) in their summer feeding grounds. Previously widespread in the North Atlantic, after centuries of hunting, these whales survive as a small population off eastern North America. Because their exploitation began before formal records started, information about their historical distribution is fragmentary. Location North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans. Methods We linked historical records of North Pacific right whales (E.japonica; from 19th-century American whaling logbooks) with oceanographic data to generate a species distribution model. Assuming that the two species have similar environmental preferences, the model was projected into the North Atlantic to predict environmental suitability for NARWs. The reliability of these predictions was assessed by comparing the model results with historical and recent records in the North Atlantic. Results The model predicts suitable environmental conditions over a wide, mostly offshore band across the North Atlantic. Predictions are well supported by historical and recent records, but discrepancies in some areas indicate lower discriminative ability in coastal, shallow-depth areas, suggesting that this model mainly describes the summer offshore distribution of right whales. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the summer range of the NARW consisted of a relatively narrow band (width c.10 degrees in latitude), extending from the eastern coast of North America to northern Norway, over the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, south of Greenland and Iceland, north of the British Isles and in the Norwegian Sea. These results highlight possibilities for additional research both on the history of exploitation and on the current summer distribution of this species. In particular, better survey coverage of historical whaling grounds could help inform conservation efforts for this endangered species. More generally, this study illustrates the challenges and opportunities in using historical data to understand the original distribution of highly depleted species.

Recent work has shown that where a firm is located matters for such things as dividend and investment policy, governance, liquidity, equity and debt issuance, and risk exposure. These effects seem to exist, in part, because of managements' desire to minimize agency problems related to monitoring and relationship building that vary as a function of firm distance from agents. The authors expand the current location literature by showing that firm location characteristics, not just distance per se, are important. They develop a geographical-based vibrancy index using important location characteristics from the Urban Economics literature that measure local economic health. We show that the vibrancy index not only predicts firm policy variables such as investment and leverage, but also predicts firm performance and firm value. The local effects are strong, adding up to a 50% increase in explanatory power above industry effects. Our results indicate that the local vibrancy of a firm headquarters is an important determinant of firm policies and profitability.

International audience; Aim We tested the influence of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and the potential effect of future climate change on Southeast Asian small mammal dis- tributions using two forest-dwelling (Leopoldamys herberti and Leopoldamys sabanus) and one karst (Leopoldamys neilli) endemic rodent species as models.Location Southeast Asia.Methods We used presence–absence data of genetically identified individuals, bioclimatic variables and species distribution modelling techniques to predict potential distributions of the three studied species under current, past [Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)] and future conditions. We applied a variety of modelling techniques and then used consensus tech- niques to draw up robust maps of potential distribution ranges at all stages.Results According to our models, these three Leopoldamys species did not experience significant range contraction during the LGM. Our models revealed substantial range contraction during the LIG for L. herberti in northern Indo- china, while its distribution expanded in southern Indochina. Evidence of a southward range expansion during that period was also obtained for L. neilli, whereas L. sabanus remained widely distributed in insular Southeast Asia but experienced a range contraction on the Thai-Malay Peninsula. The two future climate change scenarios used predicted that large climatically suitable areas would still be available in the future for the three species.Main conclusions Our model predictions contradict the well-established hypothesis that Southeast Asian forest-dwelling species were confined to small refugia during the LGM. Moreover, our results suggest that some Southeast Asian taxa may have been distributed in their refugial state during the LIG rather than the LGM. This could be because of vegetation changes that may have occurred at that time as a result of the increased seasonality observed dur- ing the LIG. These Pleistocene refugia may have been localized in northern Indochina but our study also revealed that southern Indochina could provide major potential refugia.

International audience; Coastal area is always a zone with complex problems. Due to the attraction they exert, are facing many social problems. Therefore, a coastal city is usually a city with problems. Its extension, caused by the influx of people from different backgrounds, creates an increased demand for services. One of the problems frequently encountered, especially in Senegal, is access to water. The problem of access to water is poorly treated, without being correlated with the urban evolution, i.e. with increasing population and demand growth. The water resource is facing numerous complications such as the lack of integrated management, integration issues at the governance level, where the local factor is often forgotten. The town of Mbour, object of our study, does not come out of that lot, being an attractive coastal city, from an African country. This indicates the need for an integrated management oriented from local to a global basis and not vice versa. The study presented in this paper indicates that a large proportion of the population has not access to a verified drinking water system and uses water from wells or standpipes. Half of the surveyed population (50%) has no access to a water supply system. The water poverty map of the town overlaps with that of the general poverty excepting few neighborhoods. This means that even areas that are not affected by poverty have a very low or poor access to water, which so far remains the perverse effect of the reform of the Senegalese water sector in 1995.

International audience; We investigated space-use patterns of the West African savanna buffalo (Syncerus caffer brachyceros), a little-studied subspecies occurring at the northern limit of the African buffalo's geographical range. This buffalo generally ranges in small herds (about 45 individuals) and has a low body mass (approximately 400 kg) relative to the Cape buffalo (S. c. caffer). We monitored the movements of 7 breeding herds in W Regional Park (Burkina Faso, Benin, Niger) using global positioning system collars and activity data loggers. Habitat selection was analyzed at both large (interseasonal) and small (intraseasonal) scales in a context where resources are segregated spatially at some times of year. Both biotic (primary production and vegetation types) and abiotic (timing of rainfall and surface water) covariates, and the extent to which neighboring herds shared space, were considered. In the dry season buffalo herds ranged close (within 5.3 +/- 2.0 km, mean +/- SD) to segments of permanent rivers. At the onset of the monsoon all herds but 1 (which had year-round access to suitable resources) performed a large (35 +/- 10 km) directional movement in response to a large-scale gradient of primary production. Spatiotemporal dynamics of forage and water resources thus jointly stimulated interseasonal directional movements and shaped large (335 +/- 167 km(2)) annual home ranges. Furthermore, the establishment of home ranges in the wet season appears to be conditioned by a threshold (about 10%) in the availability of perennial grasses. Habitat-selection analysis at intraseasonal scale also underlines the key role played by perennial grasses for buffaloes. The spatial arrangements of home ranges of neighboring herds also suggest that interherd behavioral avoidance is a high-level constraint on foraging processes. The ability of the African buffalo to cope with contrasting environmental conditions throughout most sub-Saharan ecosystems highlights the high behavioral plasticity of this species.

International audience; This study focuses on linear anthropogenic landforms of decametric width on cultivated hillslopes and their relations to soil thickness variability. The 16 ha study area shows a rolling topography supported by Cretaceous chalk of the SW Parisian Basin, France. Two types of landforms were identified: lynchets, similar to those described as soil terraces occurring on downslope field parts in other contexts, and undulations, linear, convex landforms that cut across fields. Accurate DEM construction and a detailed soil thickness survey were performed all over the study area. Soil samples were classified considering their location on specific types of anthropogenic landforms. The classification tree (CT) method was applied to assess whether lynchets and undulations can be discriminated through morphometric attributes (slope, curvature, profile curvature and planform curvature) and soil thickness (CTsoil) or through morphometric attributes only (CTtopo). The CT application establishes predictive classification models to map the spatial distribution of lynchets and undulations over the whole study area. The validation results of the CTsoil and CTtopo applications show model efficiencies of 83% and 67%, respectively. Both models performed well for lynchets. Errors arise mainly from difficulties in unequivocally discriminating gently convex undulations and undifferentiated surfaces, especially when soil thickness is not accounted for. Mean values of soil thickness are 1.08, 0.62 and 0.45 m in lynchets, undulations and undifferentiated areas, respectively. The general shape of the thickened soil is characteristic to each type of anthropogenic landform. Multi-temporal mapping of field border networks shows that undulations are linked to borders that were removed during the latest land consolidation. Lynchets are associated with current field borders. Lynchets and undulations, which cover 39% of the study area, define topographic indicators of human-induced soil accumulations. The method involves perspectives for efficiently mapping and quantifying the anthropogenically modified spatial variability of soil thickness on agricultural hillsides.

Submitted by Guilherme Lemeszenski (guilherme@nead.unesp.br) on 2013-08-22T18:49:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2013-08-22T18:49:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-01 Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-30T19:40:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) S0100-67622008000500016.pdf.txt: 44089 bytes, checksum: 318e241c4627cb5b18d8cc4414c20442 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-01 Submitted by Vitor Silverio Rodrigues (vitorsrodrigues@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2014-05-20T15:10:40Z No. of bitstreams: 2 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) S0100-67622008000500016.pdf.txt: 44089 bytes, checksum: 318e241c4627cb5b18d8cc4414c20442 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-20T15:10:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) S0100-67622008000500016.pdf.txt: 44089 bytes, checksum: 318e241c4627cb5b18d8cc4414c20442 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-01 O trabalho objetivou descrever e avaliar a estrutura da regeneração de espécies arbóreas em dois remanescentes naturais e em três áreas reflorestadas com espécies nativas e em um povoamento de Eucalyptus robusta, situados em área de várzea do rio Mogi-Guaçu, Luiz Antônio, SP (21º31'S e 47º55'W). Foram amostradas 40 subparcelas de 2 m² em cada remanescente natural e sub-bosque de eucalipto e 60 subparcelas de 3,5 m² em cada área reflorestada. Foram amostrados todos os indivíduos arbóreos de regeneração com altura > a 10 cm e diâmetro do caule até a altura do peito (DAP) < 5,0 cm e analisados separadamente, em quatro classes de altura, a diversidade florística, a regeneração natural (Rn%), o valor de importância (VI) e a similaridade da regeneração com indivíduos de DAP > 5 cm. Foram identificados 1.990 indivíduos, pertencentes a 24 famílias, 46 gêneros e 51 espécies. Cabralea canjerana, Psidium cattleyanum, Nectandra megapotamica, Acacia polyphylla e Syzygium cumini estavam entre as espécies mais representadas nas quatro categorias de tamanho. O reflorestamento com espécies nativas em áreas degradadas da várzea do rio Mogi-Guaçu promoveu a regeneração natural com biodiversidade superior aos remanescentes naturais de florestas ciliares sob efeito de borda e contribuiu para com o processo de restauração de ecossistemas florestais. O povoamento de Eucalyptus robusta com cerca de 20 anos de idade favoreceu a regeneração de espécies climácicas e secundárias. The phytosociology of the woody stratum of both young regenerating individuals and seed banks are quality indicators of heterogeneous reforestations. The objetive of this research was to evaluate the structure of regeneration of the arboreal species in two natural remainders, in three areas reforested with native species and in a Eucalyptus robusta settlement located in a floodplain of Mogi-Guaçu river in Luiz Antônio County (21°31´S and 47°55´W), São Paulo, Brazil. Sampling was collected in 40 subplots of 2 m²in of each natural remainder and each eucalyptus sub-forest, as well as 60 subplots of 3.5 m²in each area reforested. All individuals with height > 10 cm and diameter at breast height (DBH) < 5.0 cm were measured and analyzed separately in four height classes according to floristic diversity, similarity, density, frequency, dominance, importance value and natural regeneration. A total of 2,010 individuals were identified, belonging to 24 families, 46 genera and 51 species. The species with greater importance values were Cabralea canjerana, Psidium cattleyanum, Nectandra megapotamica, Acacia polyphylla and Syzygium cumini, well represented in the four height classes. Reforestation with native species in a degraded Mogi-Guaçu River floodplain promoted natural regeneration with more biodiversity than in natural remainders submitted to border effect, and contributed to the forest ecosystem restoration process. The 20-year-old Eucalyptus robusta plantation promoted the regeneration of climax and secondary species. Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG) Departamento de Engenharia Florestal Universidade Estadual Paulista Departamento de Produção Vegetal International Paper do Brasil Setor de Pesquisa e Gestão Ambiental Universidade Estadual Paulista Departamento de Produção Vegetal

We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century.