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This paper discusses the relationship between morality and engagement focused on the narratives about climate change. The goal of our research is to understand whether moral grounds identified in individuals and in narratives can influence youth's engagement in environmental debate and news consumption on climate change. Recognizing that people's perceptions of climate change are related to several factors, such as ideas, cultures, and values, we sought to understand whether there is a "green morality" or a prevalence of more responsive moral attributes in individuals when they are exposed to thinking about the environment. We use the Moral Foundations Theory to analyze comments on the environmental news on Twitter and a questionnaire adapted to the environment on moral grounds. The data were collected from Brazil and Portugal between 2021 and 2022. The overall results showed a high incidence of responses with Care/Harm and Fairness/Cheating, and an average incidence of responses related to Loyalty/Betrayal and Authority/Subversion. The results indicate that youngsters show a more prominent moral to care and environmental harm, as well as justice and responsibility, which may influence their interest in the consumption of environmental news and future engagement. In addition, there are factors, such as political issues, that can influence moral values and engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper interrogates the extent to which imaginaries of climate and ecological breakdown attend to the memories, knowledges, and experiences of communities already impacted by histories of racism, colonialism, and poverty. Drawing on insights from Black studies and decolonial thinking, the article reflects on how the causes and effects of anthropogenic climate change can be mapped onto geographies of racialised violence and social dispossession. Specific emphasis is given to Rio de Janeiro, notably its port area, a geographical space where future-oriented narratives remain oblivious to the city's history of anti-Black violence and Indigenous genocide. In parallel, the paper looks at the recently built Museum of Tomorrow and its public representations of the Anthropocene. Overall, the article contends that pluralising accounts of the Anthropocene might offer alternative epistemic entry points for understanding and interrupting the mounting ecological catastrophe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical models have been developed to investigate and understand responses of biogeochemical cycle to global changes. Steady state, when a system is in dynamic equilibrium, is generally required to initialize these model simulations. However, the spin‐up process that is used to achieve steady state pose a great burden to computational resources, limiting the efficiency of global modeling analysis on biogeochemical cycles. This study introduces a new Semi‐Analytical Spin‐Up (SASU) to tackle this grand challenge. We applied SASU to Community Land Model version 5 and examined its computational efficiency and accuracy. At the Brazil site, SASU is computationally 7 times more efficient than (or saved up to 86% computational cost in comparison with) the traditional native dynamics (ND) spin‐up to reach the same steady state. Globally, SASU is computationally 8 times more efficient than the accelerated decomposition spin‐up and 50 times more efficient than ND. In summary, SASU achieves the highest computational efficiency for spin‐up on site and globally in comparison with other spin‐up methods. It is generalizable to wide biogeochemical models and thus makes computationally costly studies (e.g., parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation) possible for a better understanding of biogeochemical cycle under climate change. Plain Language Summary: Land carbon cycle models, a critical component of earth system models, have been developed to investigate and understand ecological responses to global changes. However, the model spin‐up process to achieve steady state are usually time‐consuming and pose great computational burden. The spin‐up problem hinders our ability to study some key issues in land carbon cycle modeling, such as sensitivity analysis. This paper applies a new SASU framework to accelerate spin‐up of Community Land Model matrix version 5. Compared with traditional native dynamic approach, SASU speeds up the spin‐up by approximately 50 times, achieving the fastest spin‐up speed than all the previously recorded methods. Our SASU method is applicable to biogeochemical models and, therefore, liberates the models for computationally costly studies, such as parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation. Key Points: A new semi‐analytical spin‐up (SASU) framework combines the default accelerated spin‐up method and matrix analytical algorithmSASU accelerates CLIM5 spin‐up by tens of times, becoming the fastest method to our knowledgeSASU is applicable to most biogeochemical models and enables computationally costly study, for example, sensitivity analysis [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial aspect analysed during the last years, aiming to improve sugarcane production, is the impact of climate change on sugarcane productivity. One of the strategies to mitigate climate change's impact on sugarcane yield is the development of new varieties known to positively affect crop production. This paper analysed how climate change impacts sugarcane production regarding the different planted varieties. Data regarding sugarcane harvest were collected from a cooperative in the south of Goiás state—Brazil, the second biggest national sugarcane producer. Results indicate that climate impact on sugarcane yield is irrelevant when controlling for different varieties. Considering the results presented in this work, the Brazilian government should keep the incentives for the development of new sugarcane varieties and, at the same time, spur sugarcane producers to use the new sugarcane varieties. The results imply that if the variety is correctly chosen, sugarcane can be produced without harming the environment, contributing to reaching SDG 15. Moreover, it is less probable that an adverse climatic event will destroy the planted area, preventing sugarcane producers from severe loss and contributing to achieving SDGs number 1 and 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the impact of COVID-19 on the rights of indigenous peoples, particularly in Brazil. It deals with the current situation of the Brazilian indigenous peoples, the impacts of the pandemic, the rights created on the adoption of protective sanitary measures for indigenous people and land rights in Brazil. Does the Brazilian government comply with international law, with constitutional rights of indigenous peoples in the current COVID-19 crisis, particularly with the Brazilian Supreme Court decision on the adoption of protective sanitary measures for indigenous people? With a focus on the 2020 Report of the Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, this paper will identify and examine the gaps in protection of the indigenous peoples rights by reason of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. This paper argues that the crisis is misused as an occasion for land invasions, deforestation, forest fires and the denial of basic indigenous rights. Especially in Brazil, a transformative change, an emergency support for indigenous peoples, and a still stand agreement on logging and extractive industries operating next to indigenous communities are needed. Brazilian NGO statements give guidelines as to how to manage the threats of the present pandemic on indigenous peoples of Brazil. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, the United Nations and the International Labour Organisation all offer further relevant suggestions as to how to address the serious impacts in the response to and the aftermath of this crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore how the principles of participatory action research (PAR) articulate with questions of climate justice. Drawing on three qualitative case studies in Brazil, Fiji and Kenya, the paper explores university institutional capabilities, asking how the principles of mobilising PAR to support transformative outcomes can further climate justice. The paper argues that for participatory action research to become a pathway to build universities' capabilities, key considerations are needed. PAR needs to: (a) move beyond change in individual behaviour to respond to climate change and affect institutional norms, procedures and practices; (b) recognise and partner with marginalised groups whose voice and experiences are at the periphery of climate debate, enabling reciprocal flows of impact and knowledge between universities and wider societies; and (c) foster "relationships of equivalence" with actors within as well as outside university to influence university governance and wider climate-related policy-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adapting reservoir operation to a changing climate is important to improve water system performance toward benefits including water security, and energy production. However, managers still need to know if and how reoperation can also assist long-term mitigation of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems, creating, for example, opportunities to revert fish migration and recruitment losses. This paper investigates the operational adaptive capacity of water systems to mitigate climate change impacts on both hydropower and aquatic ecosystems, with a detailed representation of fish species recruitment response to flow regime changes. The methodology framework combines hydroclimatic modeling, explicit stochastic reservoir operation modeling, and predictive modeling of migratory fish recruitment abundance, illustrated using the large-scale hydropower system of the Paraná River Basin in Brazil. Results identified that operating policies can be adapted to improve hydropower production under a changing climate with drier conditions by 2% to 8% compared with current operating policies. Although insufficient to eliminate all energy losses that climate change may cause, the optimized operation provided flexibility to adjust flow releases and reduce the likelihood of future severe multiyear deficits, which are very harmful to fish populations. Adapting operation to climate change sacrificed fish recruitment performance over a few years of the time horizon to maintain an overall higher storage, but it also improved the chances of producing flow releases in magnitude, timing, and duration during long drier periods that prevented more severe impacts of climate change on fish recruitment and population. This indicates that it might be possible to have synergies in adapting reservoir operation to not only prevent energy losses, but also to improve fish recruitment under climate change. The ecosystem resiliency under adapted operation increased up to 2 times compared with the isolated climate change effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plot-based monitoring has yielded much information on the taxonomic diversity and carbon (C) storage in tropical lowland forests of the Amazon basin. This has resulted in an improved understanding of the relationship between lowland forest biomass dynamics and global change drivers, such as climate change and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Much less attention has been paid to the mountain ecosystems of South America that comprise montane forests and alpine vegetation (páramo, puna, high Andean grasslands, wetlands, and alpine heath). This vegetation complex provides a variety of ecosystem services and forms a natural laboratory along various physiographic, geological and evolutionary history/biogeography, and land use history gradients. Here, we review existing empirical understanding and model-based approaches to quantify the contribution of mountain ecosystems to ecosystem service provision in the rapidly changing socioecological setting of the South American mountains. The objective of this paper is to outline a broad road map for the implementation of mountain vegetation into dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) for use in Earth System Models (ESM), based on our current understanding of their structure and function and of their responsiveness to global change drivers. We also identify treeline processes, critical in mountain ecosystems, as key missing elements in DGVMs/ESMs, and thus explore in addition a treeline model. Stocktaking of the availability of empirical data was undertaken from eight research sites along the Andes and in south-eastern Brazil. Out of eight sites, two (one each in Venezuela and Brazil) had some climate, ecological and ecophysiological data potentially suitable to parametrise a DGVM. Tree biomass data were available for six sites. A preliminary assessment of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) DGVM was made to identify gaps in available data and their impacts on model parametrisation and calibration. Additionally, the potential climate-determined elevation of the treeline was modelled to check the DGVM for its ability to identify the transition between the montane forest and alpine vegetation. Outcomes of the evaluation of the JULES land surface model identified the following key processes in montane forests: temperature-related decrease in net primary production, respiration, and allocation to above-ground biomass and increase in soil C stocks with elevation. There was a variable agreement between simulated biomass and those derived from field measurements via allometric equations. We identified major gaps between data availability and the needs for process-based modelling of South American mountain vegetation and its dynamics in DGVMs. To bridge this gap, we propose a transdisciplinary network, composed of members of the theoretical/modelling and empirical scientific communities, to study the natural dynamics of mountain ecosystems and their responses to global change drivers locally, regionally and at the continental scale, within a social-ecological system framework. The work presented here forms the basis for the design of data collection from field measurements and instrumental monitoring stations to parametrise and verify DGVMs. The network is designed to collaborate with and complement existing long-term research initiatives in the region and will adopt existing standard field protocols. Complementary protocols will ensure compatibility between field data collection and data needed for process-based and empirical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to report on the status and the development of education for sustainable development (ESD) and sustainability literacy (SL) in three Latin American (LA) higher education institutions (HEIs) business programs in Peru, Brazil and Colombia. The paper examines institutional efforts to both introduce and implement ESD curricula and provide SL. Design/methodology/approach: The methods used in this paper included reviews of university Web pages and course materials. Structured interviews were also conducted with program leaders, to examine the level of ESD, as input affecting the business programs curricula of the universities concerned. Findings: Initial findings suggest that, in the three HEIs surveyed, there is still a tendency to talk about issues related to ESD but actions that confirm this interest are not sufficiently advanced. The authors surveys a sample of business programs curricula and interviewed its leaders and a mixed and dated picture emerged. When compared to other regions particularly the USA and Europe, the findings show that the HEIs surveyed still have not developed enough work to distinguish conceptually between sustainable development, ESD and SL making the embedment of these concepts in the curriculum not fully developed. Originality/value: In LA HEIs, the ESD message seems to be slowly taking ground, equipping HEIs to respond to SL concerns. Implementation and practice in some HEIs are still at an embryonic and conceptually confused stage with regard to LA HEIs SL. This paper sheds light to help ESD delivery. It offers some strategies for moving on from this inception phase to a more structured SL provision and ESD outlook. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to find probabilities of extreme values of the air temperature for the Cerrado, Pantanal and Atlantic Forest biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil. In this case a maximum likelihood estimation was employed for the probability distributions fitting the extreme monthly air temperatures for 2007–2018. Using the Extreme Value Theory approach this work estimates three probability distributions: the Generalized Distribution of Extreme Values (GEV), the Gumbel (GUM) and the Log-Normal (LN). The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, the corrected Akaike criterion AICc, the Bayesian information criterion BIC, the root of the mean square error RMSE and the determination coefficient R2 were applied to measure the goodness-of-fit. The estimated distributions were used to calculate the probabilities of occurrence of maximum monthly air temperatures over 28–32 °C. Temperature predictions were done for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 30-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The GEV and GUM distributions are recommended to be used in the warmer months. In the coldest months, the LN distribution gave a better fit to a series of extreme air temperatures. Deforestation, combustion and extensive fires, and the related aerosol emissions contribute, alongside climate change, to the generation of extreme air temperatures in the studied biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional approach to characterize extreme rainfall events is based on using past observed data to fit a probability distribution, which is used to associate a certain probability of occurrence to a rainfall magnitude, under a stationary assumption. Observed series, however, may exhibit trends and abrupt changes, resulting from the natural hydro climatic variability and the climate change context, which are not usually considered in the stationary modelling procedure and which may affect the characterization of extreme events. In this paper, it was evaluated the presence of these temporal changes in rainfall series and their impact to estimate design quantiles, using rainfall data of 317 stations, located in São Paulo State, Brazil. The results showed that extreme rainfall events are changing in the state. Low-return period events (up to 10 years) are intensifying. Moderate- and high-return period events, on the other hand, did not present a clear spatial pattern. Trends and abrupt changes may significantly influence the estimation of design quantiles. The presence of the former in rainfall series exhibited more influence on low-return period events, showing, however, no clear relationship with high-return period design quantiles. The presence of the latter seems to influence the characterization process, affecting estimated quantiles of all evaluated return periods. Such findings highlight the need to consider the presence of trends and abrupt changes and their influence on design quantiles for a more reliable characterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions around the world are facing climate changes, with substantial increase in air temperature over the past decades, which is mainly related to continental and global warming forced by the higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study were to use the Köppen climate classification to detect local climate change based on a historical series of 100 years and to assess if such change is related to those that are occurring in other spatial scales as a likely consequence of increasing GHG. This paper brings a content full of innovative results. The study area presented an average annual air temperature increase by 0.9 °C between 1917 and 2016, rising from 21.4 °C for the first climatological normal (1917–1946) to 22.3 °C for the last one (1987–2016). Furthermore, in the summer months, the temperature rose from 24.5 to 25.3 °C, and in the winter months, such increase was from 17.1 (1917–1946) to 18.3 °C (1987–2016). Our findings showed the subtropical conditions (Cfa in Köppen's classification) in the study area persisted from the beginning of the analysis (1917–1946) until the climatological normal of 1979–2008, with a clear tendency of tropicalization after that with a change in the climate type of Piracicaba from subtropical to tropical, which can now be classified as tropical with dry winter (Aw climate type). The local average air temperature showed concordances with the long-term air temperature anomalies from regional, continental, and global scales, indicating that all of them may be linked with increasing GHG emissions, since well-defined long-term linear relationships (r2 = 0.99) were observed between continental and global average air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration observed at the NOAA Lab in Mauna Loa in the last 59 years. While the local and regional forcing effects remain to be fully unraveled, our study provided a valid and strong scientific sound evidence that climate change occurred in Piracicaba, southeastern Brazil, in the last 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Out-of-sample prediction of extreme precipitation using nonstationary models. • Significant trends in data of extreme precipitation are insufficient to warrant the selection of a nonstationary model. • Large prediction uncertainty reduces the support for nonstationary models of extreme precipitation. • (Non)stationary model selection should explicitly account for model complexity. Knowledge of the recurrence intervals of precipitation extremes is vital for infrastructure design, risk assessment, and insurance planning. However, trends and shifts in rainfall patterns globally pose challenges to the application of extreme value analysis (EVA) which relies critically on the assumption of stationarity. In this paper, we explore: (1) the suitability of nonstationary (NS) models in the presence of statistically significant trends, and (2) their potential in modeling out-of-sample data to improve frequency analysis of extreme precipitation. We analyze the benefits of using a nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model for annual extreme precipitation records from Southern Brazil. The location of the GEV distribution is allowed to change with time. The unknown GEV model parameters are estimated using Bayesian techniques coupled with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Next, we use GAME sampling to compute the evidence (and their ratios, the so-called Bayes factors) for stationary and nonstationary models of annual maximum precipitation. Our results show that the presence of a statistically significant trend in annual maximum precipitation alone does not justify the use of a NS model. The location parameter of the GEV distribution must also be well defined, otherwise, stationary models of annual maximum precipitation receive more support by the data. These findings reiterate the importance of accounting for GEV model parameters and predictive uncertainty in frequency analysis and hypothesis testing of annual maximum precipitation data records. Furthermore, a meaningful EVA demands detailed knowledge about the origin and persistence of observed changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6–8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The following paper aims to reconstruct the evolution of this dynamic by tracing the interpretations and reinterpretations of the norm done by Brazilian state actors through the process of localization of the norm in the domestic discourse on climate change in Brazil from 2005 to 2010. The theoretical perspective is based on the literature about norms internalization that attempts to specify the conditions under which international norms find salience in particular domestic contexts. Two main interpretations coexist within the Brazilian political arena in the period within the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol until the signature of the Paris agreement that influenced the climate politics in Brazil in that period. The first stand around the norm was a traditional interpretation of the principle defending a position of historical responsibilities that implies that Brazil did not have to take greenhouse gas reduction measures. The second position is a more progressive interpretation of the norm that argues that Brazil, as an emergent country, can and must adopt emissions reductions. The tie between both positions allows us to understand the alleged ups and downs in climate policy in the time frame studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a concerning topic, as it is impossible to deny its damaging effects on the planet. Different policy responses have been offered regarding climate change adaptation, and these have brought forward issues related to climate justice. As this topic is still not very well known in Brazil, this paper aims to raise awareness on climate justice concepts and related issues. This is a literature review which analyses climate justice theories and their relation with the concept of climate change adaptation in order to offer a new point-of-view on the topic. This paper has come to the conclusion that the concept of climate change has been created due to the increased importance of climate justice. Its origins lie in climate change activism, which seeks to help the most affected communities. That was when the fight for sharing the burden of climate change emerged, giving rise to the concepts of mitigation and climate adaptation. Thus, the most affected populations should receive assistance in the form of climate change impact adaptation, financed by the countries which are responsible for most greenhouse effect gas emissions, in name of climate justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How relevant is the role of CO2 from harvested wood products (HWPs) for the Brazilian GHG emission balance? The C stocks and CO2 emissions and removals from the HWPs in Brazil during 1900–2016 were evaluated using three methodological approaches: stock-change approach (SCA), production approach (PA), and stock-change of domestic origin (SCDOA). Data from the FAO's FAOSTAT system on production, import and export of semi-finished products (sawnwood, wood-based panels and paper/paperboard) were analyzed, considering distinct land-use activities: deforestation (D), forest management (FM) and afforestation/reforestation (A/R). Two scenarios to evaluate the effect of HWPs from D were evaluated. The C stock in HWPs in 2016 reached 252 Mt C, by SCA. Contributions to C storage historically were higher from sawnwood, but wood-based panels and paper/paperboard have recently outperformed it. A/R is the major activity responsible for C storage in HWPs. The CO2 removal by HWPs was 521 Mt during 1990–2016, which corresponds to 1.1% of the country's emissions in the same period. It was concluded that Brazil has become a major producer and wood consumer and that HWPs are allies for a positive C balance and fulfillment of the commitments assumed by the country regarding climate change. AFOLU Agriculture, forestry and other land uses A/R Afforestation/reforestation D Deforestation FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization FM Forest management HWPs Harvested wood products IBGE Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics PA Production approach PEVS Plant extraction and forestry SCA Stock-change approach SCDOA Stock-change of domestic origin approach [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastureland maintenance is seen as a land-based measure to reduce dependency on feed concentrates and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production in the EU, while providing other ecosystems services. This paper assesses potential market-mediated impacts, including global Land Use Change (LUC) and GHG emissions, from increased subsidies to pasture-based livestock production in the EU. A tax recycling strategy (TRS) is simulated against a baseline up to 2030 under the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). This implies a budget-neutral increase in the level of pasture subsidies in individual Member States, as land subsidies for other cropping activities decrease. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP in its recursive-dynamic version, GTAP-RDEM, extended with the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database FABIO to disaggregate agri-food sectors from 21 to 31. This approach allows considering price- and income-dependent feedbacks when assessing long-run changes in the global economy, improving the sectoral resolution relative to GTAP v10. The policy increases pastureland areas and cattle production in almost all EU Member States, whereas cropland and crop production decrease, causing significant changes across EU agri-food markets. Crop prices increase, leading to the reduced output of intensive animal production sectors, mainly pig and poultry. Cropland areas decrease and most EU countries increase imports of grain, oilseeds, and cakes, essentially soybean cake from Brazil and North America. While GHG emissions decrease in those EU countries where pasturelands expand mainly at the cost of croplands, GHG emissions increase in those countries where pastureland expansion comes with forest loss. As a result, net GHG emissions increase in the EU-27 in 2030 (+2.49 Mt CO 2 -eq). Emissions from LUC in major non-EU grain- and oilseed-exporting countries increase, e.g., by 102.52 Mt CO 2 -eq in Brazil and by 129.17 Mt CO 2 -eq in North America. The simulated policy shows that promoting extensive livestock per se does not meet the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal. The TRS should be complemented with policies to foster crop diversification and promote the use of domestic feed sources (e.g., legumes) to effectively ensure feed self-sufficiency and that extensive cattle production in the EU does not lead to deforestation in carbon-rich countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of wind power has gained prominence on the world stage, especially in Brazil. In addition to generating energy free of emissions, wind technology is the second cheapest generation option in Brazil. At the same time, it has contributed to reducing hydrological vulnerability caused by climate variation. Although wind power has experienced a steady expansion in the last decade, recent poor outcomes of wind auctions produced uncertainty about the future of this technology in the country. This paper analyses the influence of contract mechanisms used in Brazilian energy auctions for the growth of wind generation. To do this, a scenario analysis based on a hybrid simulation model is used, combining agent-based modelling (ABM) and system dynamics (SD). From the hybrid simulation, the effect of the wind project cancellation policy is analysed, on the one hand, and different ceiling prices for competing sources in the auctions are assessed, on the other. Moreover, the simulation model shows how hydro conditions affect reserve energy auctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability to climate change of family farmers in the Rio Doce region, Minas Gerais. The theoretical background was based on the discussion about the negative impacts of climate change on family farming. Vulnerability was identified through its dimensions related to sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity, which were measured by representative indexes, based on socioeconomic and demographic data from 206 farmers in the region, and municipality climate variables. The results indicated that low pluriactivity and reduced access to irrigation mechanisms increased farmers' sensitivity. The low precipitation rates, in relation to the regional historical average, increased the exposure to climate change. The adaptive capacity can be attributed to the low access to rural credit and the absence of public irrigation projects. Therefore, high vulnerability were a consequence of high exposure and sensitivity rates, combined with low adaptive capacity. The results suggest that the region should receive attention in terms of public policies to reduce its vulnerability, enabling it to face more intense climate change scenarios in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge for humankind is to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to avoid the most harmful impacts of climate change. The transport sector is responsible for almost 1/4 of the world's energy-related emissions, with road transportation representing around 1/5 of the fuel consumption. Electric vehicles (EVs) may help to reduce CO2 emissions, but their diffusion is uncertain due to market barriers. This paper investigates the electric vehicle (EV), which has a smaller ecological footprint, as an alternative capable of meeting the needs of personal transport in Brazil. To carry out this evaluation, the study considers socio-techno-economic and political-environmental-innovation aspects to assess the challenges and opportunities facing the adoption of electric vehicles. The analysis was carried out based on a survey administered to a wide range of stakeholders. A SWOT analysis was performed to understand the most critical factors affecting the future of EVs in Brazil, which is a top-ten automotive manufacturer worldwide and a leader in sugar cane ethanol production. The results suggest light-duty electric vehicles (LDEV) as a first option for low-carbon passengers' mobility and that EVs expansion will require market regulation, incentive policies and adequate charging infrastructure. Both consumers and society in general will benefit most from the expansion of EVs due to low emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO). The results show where decision-makers should focus their attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both global climate change and urbanization trends will demand adaptation measures in cities. Large agglomerations and impacts on landscape and natural environments due to city growth will require guided densification schemes in urban areas, particularly in developing countries. Human biometeorological indices such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) could guide this process, as they provide a clear account of expected effects on thermal sensation from a given change in outdoor settings. However, an earlier step should optimally include an adequacy test of suggested comfort and thermal stress ranges with calibration procedures based on surveys with the target population. This paper compares obtained thermal comfort ranges for three different locations in Brazil: Belo Horizonte, 20° S, Aw climate type; Curitiba, 25.5° S, Cfb subtropical climate, both locations in elevation (above 900 m a.s.l.); and Pelotas, at sea level, latitude 32° S, with a Cfa climate type. In each city, a set of outdoor comfort field campaigns has been carried out according to similar procedures, covering a wide range of climatic conditions over different seasons of the year. Obtained results indicate a variation of neutral temperatures up to 3 °C (UTCI units) as a possible latitude and local climate effect between the southern locations relative to the northernmost location. Low UTCI values were found in the two subtropical locations for the lower threshold of the thermal comfort band as compared with the original threshold. A possible explanation for that is a longer exposure to cold conditions as buildings are seldom provided with heating systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates climate change impacts on the hydrology and water quality of Brazilian semi-arid reservoirs. An integrated approach coupling climate, hydrological and water quality models was proposed. Five general circulation models (GCMs) and two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used for the projections. The simulations showed that uncertainty in climate forecast significantly impacted hydrological and water quality outputs. Some scenarios revealed a strong decrease in streamflow and storage volume. On the other hand, 40% of multi-GCM projections indicated reservoir eutrophication. The impacts on hydrology and water quality under SSP5-8.5 were more significant than those under SSP2-4.5. The results also indicated that drought events may be prolonged under climate change, principally at the end of the 21st century for SSP5-8.5, and may significantly increase the total phosphorus concentration. This suggests that tropical semi-arid reservoirs could be more vulnerable to eutrophication in scenarios of climate change than those in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines to what extent the adverse effects of climate change can be considered triggering factors of public insecurity. Against this background, it explores the growing environmental conflicts involving water resources in Brazil, including the Amazon region. In addition to the introduction and conclusion, the paper is structured around three topics. The first one outlines how the concept of public security has evolved to the present state, in which climate change is taken into account. Next, climate change is discussed as a factor that magnifies vulnerabilities, an argument supported by a discussion of historical events. The third topic highlights the main threats, vulnerabilities and conflicts involving water resources in Brazil, taking a scientific view of systemic risks and precaution. Finally, we propose rethinking the concept of public security in Brazil from a perspective of parameters involving regulations, principles and state initiative. The article suggests that the immediate and future effects of climate change do have a profound impact on social systems and on the environment, and may be a triggering factor of public insecurity. If institutions and governments do not address existing effects, and invest in adaptations to meet future scientific forecasts on climate change, social stability and the development of a culture of peace will be less likely in Brazil. A fundamental step in this process is the reformulation of the conventional concept of public security in the Brazilian legislation, in order to expressly incorporate the variable of climate security among its stated objectives. In addition, we point out a set of actions and principles with the potentital to promote not only adaptation and resilience, but also contribute to building peace. In terms of methodology, the study is descriptive, exploratory, legislative, bibliographical and documentary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore part of the existing legal toolkit-of legislation, case law, and doctrine-that is already consolidated in the Environmental Law field and should be explored for litigating the climate crisis in Brazil. The article makes the case that Brazil is a fertile ground for climate litigation by articulating already established and successfully tested legal avenues for preventing, mitigating, and compensating adverse environmental impacts caused by the private sector or by the State, and that can be brought before national courts as strong legal arguments. Like a frame of glasses, the legal framework that underpins environmental licensing and civil environmental liability in Brazil needs to receive the "lenses" of climate change in order to be transformed into an effective climate litigation tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The election of Donald Trump brought disarray to the climate change regime. The changes in what was up to then a promoter of the liberal international order (LIO) exacerbated existing tensions while creating new ones. This paper investigates how that challenge impacted the behaviours of Brazil, China and the European Union (EU) by comparatively analysing their dissimilar positions with respect to three indicators before and after Trump's coming into power. These indicators are individual pledges and climate-related policies; approaches to climate finance; and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The analysis first shows how the US started eroding the broader LIO and the climate change regime to then delve into the behaviours of the three respective key players concerning climate talks. I sustain that the EU, despite its inner divisions, is already counteracting Washington, whereas China is combining a pro-status quo position based on a rhetorical condemnation of the United States. Brazil, in turn, had a transition towards a climate-sceptic government, shifting from being a cooperative actor to abdicating hosting the COP25. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This work analyzes the impacts of climate change in the revenues of hydropower plants. One important input for designing and evaluating investment opportunities in hydropower is the water inflows historical data. Unfortunately, the use of such information alone may not project well the future power generation due to the influence of climate change in the water inflow patterns. This paper introduces spatio-temporal information of the future climate into the operational planning of the Brazilian hydropower system. Global climate models from IPCC are considered along with downscaled regional climate models. Our results at the individual hydro plant level show the importance of taking into account climate change information when performing hydro generation planning studies. Highlights • We present a new framework to evaluate climate change impacts in hydropower plants. • An interaction among regional climate, water inflows modeling, and optimization dispatch models is showed. • Relevant results for distinct configurations of the Brazilian system are presented. • This paper can help to support decision-making regarding investments in new hydro plants. • This multidisciplinary research provides guidance for future planning of the generation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the effects of public policies on the occurrence of natural disasters related to extreme rainfall. By using a unique and geolocated database on natural disasters in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I test whether variables related to public policies - e.g. forest cover and urban infrastructure - affect the occurrence of natural disasters, conditional on the existence of extreme rainfall. Results point to a significant role for public policies in order to mitigate effects of extreme weather events. More specifically, results point to an important role for urban infrastructure, as proper sewage and waste collection, and forest cover in reducing the impacts of extreme rainfall. Moreover, I discuss how these heterogeneous effects have distributional consequences and can be linked to the Environmental Justice literature. Finally, this paper reinforces the idea that adaptation policies to disasters are essential in reducing local vulnerabilities and can yield distributional and fiscal benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the study of climate change and environmental justice with a particular focus on a Global South case-study in the São Paulo Macro Metropolis of Brazil. We also aim to contribute to mandatory critical dialogue between (anticipatory) governance and environmental justice. This study focuses on the rainy seasons from 2016 to 2019. We examine the incidence of 61 extreme precipitation events, as well as 47 deaths caused by rain events, considering their location based on vulnerability indicators. The correlations among these data allow us to reveal the socio-environmental patterns within the relationships between social vulnerability and deaths caused by general rainfall and, more specifically, extreme events. Based on this, we demonstrate that current infrastructure or its lack is one of the reasons why death tolls remain due to the absence of anticipatory governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts in one country can lead to impacts in distant locations, for example, via internationally traded crops. Previous work has highlighted a need to include cross-border climate change impacts in climate risk assessments, to describe the exposure and transmission of cross-border climate risk across actors, and understand options for managing this risk. In a case study of the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain, this paper aims to explore how stakeholders perceive past and future shocks, how climate change impacts affect stakeholders differently, and how they might respond. Soy is a key internationally traded commodity and Europe relies on imports for the majority of its soy consumption, used widely in livestock feed. Via 96 semi-structured expert interviews, we found different stakeholder groups are vulnerable to different types of weather shocks, experience different price and supply consequences, and have different capacities to respond. While some responses can reduce risk of impacts across the supply chain (e.g. new soy cultivars, improving transport infrastructure), we also identified examples where responses exacerbate risk for other stakeholders (e.g. export bans, changing demand). A holistic cross-border approach to analysing risk in the soy supply chain can help avoid maladaptation and offer opportunities for more collaborative adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has caused an increased occurrence of heat waves. As a result of rising temperatures, implications for health and the environment have been more frequently reported. Outdoor labour activities deserve special attention, as is the case with agricultural and construction workers exposed to extreme weather conditions, including intense heat. This paper presents an overview of heat stress conditions in Brazil from 1961 to 2010. It also presents computer‐simulated projections of heat stress conditions up to the late 21st century. The proposed climate analysis drew on historical weather data obtained from national weather stations and on reanalysis data, in addition to future projections with the ETA (regarding the model's unique vertical coordinate) regional forecast model. The projections took into consideration two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)—the 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, namely, moderate and high emissions scenarios, respectively. Heat stress was inferred based on the wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index. The results of this climate analysis show that Brazilian outdoor workers have been exposed to an increasing level of heat stress. These results suggest that future changes in the regional climate may increase the probability of heat stress situations in the next decades, with expectations of WBGT values greater than those observed in the baseline period (1961–1990). In terms of spatial distribution, the Brazilian western and northern regions experienced more critical heat stress conditions with higher WBGT values. As a response to the increased frequency trends of hot periods in tropical areas, urgent measures should be taken to review public policies in Brazil. Such policies should include actions towards better working conditions, technological development to improve outdoor labour activities, and employment legislation reviews to mitigate heat impacts on occupational health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the buildings sector requires a full understanding of the factors influencing emissions over the life-cycle of buildings, particularly in places where large additions to the building stock are expected. Currently, little is known about what affects the GHG emissions of buildings located in warmer climates, a typical situation for many emerging economies. This paper presents a study of emissions from Brazilian office buildings using building archetypes. A sensitivity analysis explores possible parameter ranges, various contributions to life-cycle impacts and their key drivers. For each of the 1000 building variations in the sample, the emissions were calculated using a life-cycle assessment. Multivariate regression analysis enabled the study of the results' sensitivity to 10 parameters, influencing building operation, design and others. The emissions ranged from 20 to 106 kg CO2-eq/m² gross floor area and year. Electricity mix, climate and cooling efficiency were the most impactful parameters, but building component service time was also significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Semi-arid regions are known for erratic precipitation patterns with significant effects on the hydrological cycle and water resources availability. High temporal and spatial variation in precipitation causes large variability in runoff over short durations. Due to low soil water storage capacity, base flow is often missing and rivers fall dry for long periods. Because of its climatic characteristics, the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil is prone to droughts. To counter these, reservoirs were built to ensure water supply during dry months. This paper describes problems and solutions when calibrating and validating the eco-hydrological model SWIM for semi-arid regions on the example of the Pajeú watershed in north-eastern Brazil. The model was calibrated to river discharge data before the year 1983, with no or little effects of water management, applying a simple and an enhanced approach. Uncertainties result mainly from the meteorological data and observed river discharges. After model calibration water management was included in the simulations. Observed and simulated reservoir volumes and river discharges are compared. The calibrated and validated models were used to simulate the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and water resources management using data of two representative concentration pathways (RCP) and five earth system models (ESM). The differences in changes in natural and managed mean discharges are negligible (< 5%) under RCP8.5 but notable (> 5%) under RCP2.6 for the ESM ensemble mean. In semi-arid catchments, the enhanced approach should be preferred, because in addition to discharge, a second variable, here evapotranspiration, is considered for model validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, greater acknowledgement has been given to climate change as a cultural phenomenon. This paper takes a cultural lens to the topic of climate change, in which climate-relevant understandings are grounded in wider cultural, political and material contexts. We approach climate-relevant accounts at the level of the everyday, understood as a theoretically problematic and politically contested space This is in contrast to simply being the backdrop to mundane, repetitive actions contributing to environmental degradation and the site of mitigative actions. Taking discourse as a form of practice in which fragments of cultural knowledge are drawn on to construct our environmental problems, we investigate citizens' accounts of climate-relevant issues in three culturally diverse emerging economies: Brazil, South Africa and China. These settings are important because greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are predicted to significantly increase in these countries in the future. We conducted semi-structured interviews with a range of citizens in each country using a narrative approach to contextualise climate-relevant issues as part of people's lifestyle narratives. Participants overwhelmingly framed their accounts in the context of locally-salient issues, and few accounts explicitly referred to the phenomenon of climate change. Instead, elements of climate changes were conflated with other environmental issues and related to a wide range of cultural assumptions that influenced understandings and implied particular ways of responding to environmental problems. We conclude that climate change scholars should address locally relevant understandings and develop dialogues that can wider meanings that construct climate-relevant issues in vernacular ways at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of public policies have emerged worldwide as a response from governments facing climate change effects, drawing the attention of the scientific community to the outcomes and actual effects/benefits these policies have brought so far. One of the challenging aspects related to this context is the integration of the objectives set by climate change policies within the sectoral and regional planning. In this respect, the literature recognizes the relevance of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as an instrument to deal with climate change issues in the planning process and to support the development of alternatives to respond to climate change policies. The influence of climate change policies on the plans and programs supported by SEA in emerging economies is yet to be verified. The paper relies on the case of Brazil, recognized by its relevance in terms of biodiversity, water resources and climate regulation. In 2009, Brazil introduced the National Policy of Climate Change (NPCC), which established guidelines to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2020. The present paper is based on the analysis of the current SEA practice and the corresponding level of integration of climate change issues, considering the objectives of the NPCC. A set of 29 statements, delivered by the literature, was applied, combined to the content analysis techniques to review the quality of 35 SEA reports produced in Brazil between 1997 and 2014 (out of 40-odd cases). The outcomes indicate the performance is similar to what was found in other contexts, i.e., SEA areas barely address climate change issues. This thus reveals an important gap between the objectives of NPCC and sectoral/regional planning. SEA can contribute to reducing this gap, but it needs more strength to influence the development of sectoral and regional policies and plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has an energy system with a hydrothermal characteristic that interconnects consumers and generators covering 98% of the demand for energy supplies. Most of the plants are concentrated in the southeast region, where the largest consumers and the largest population concentration are located. The expansion of this system, considering the hydroelectric contributions, will occur exploring the potentials located in the Amazon region. This analysis paper shows that the variations imposed by climate changes on some climatological variables create significant uncertainties about the power generation forecasts of the hydroelectric power plants to be installed in the Amazon, thus compromising the financial economic feasibility of these enterprises and also possibly compromising the expansion plans of the Brazilian energy system. The methodological approach uses information from various climate change scenarios and compares those with historical hydrological patterns and generation information. By exploring the characteristics of a large-scale hydrothermal system with high dependence on water resources, this paper provides valuable insights on how energy policy would address hydroelectric vulnerabilities and climate change. This analysis is focused on the Brazilian case but reveals important issues related to systems with hydro thermal characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitioning from a carbon-intensive development path to a low-carbon economy requires understanding of emission sources and its drivers. To achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must project emission baselines considering different levels of ambition and sectoral performances and monitor government policies and mitigation actions. This study develops a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) framework based on energy use and carbon emission scenarios for Brazil up to 2030, focusing on transport. Three scenarios are developed based on different political commitments. All scenarios and mitigation actions are discussed under the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, which is recognized as one of the most important institutional instruments of the National Policy on Climate Change. Results reveal a 41% abatement in CO2e emissions when comparing the most ambitious scenario to the conservative one. MRV framework indicates that Brazil is on track to a low carbon economic transition, although joint action is needed. This is mainly due to the increasing penetration of bioenergy into the transport energy matrix, while electromobility does not expand in Brazil at the pace of major international players such as Europe and China. Special contribution of this paper is on the role of bioenergy in prospective carbon emission scenarios, which is a lack in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Bibliographic mapping was used to identify major research groups and trends for heat tolerance in farm animals. • Major research countries are the USA, China, Brazil, India, Australia and UK with 54% of all publications. • There was a gradual drift in heat stress studies from animal physiology towards genomics and cellular biology. • This area of research is growing 3x faster than publication rates in general. • Most papers are on cattle, indicating the need for studies with other species. This study looks at the bibliographic mapping of citation, co-occurrence of keywords, co-citation and bibliographic coupling for heat tolerance in farm animals. Data was obtained from Scopus (Elsevier) and analysed in Vosviewer. Several salient points emerge from our analysis. We found a total of 1728 documents from 102 countries, of which 54% are from six countries (USA, China, Brazil, India, Australia and UK). While heat tolerance is important, Global South countries have recently become more important in this topic. Nevertheless, researchers from this region appear relatively isolated using the metrics of this study. One potential factor contributing to isolation could be lack of funding. This is discussed in the light of current Article Processing Charges. We also note a gradual drift in heat stress studies from animal physiology towards genomics and cellular biology. The paper can help understanding tendencies in this field of research and may point to future actions within the research community. This paper also shows the need to strengthen studies in less favoured areas and with species such as small ruminants, whereby small holders may be harder hit by climate change. Biases in the analysis could arise due to low citations from recent papers or those not indexed in Scopus. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The objective of this paper was to test the hypothesis that epiphytic lichen metacommunities in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are hierarchically structured and not only correspond to forest formations and their floristic subdivisions, but also reflect the main geopolitical regions in the study area (Northeast, Southeast, South) and particularly the division of the Atlantic Forest, along a latitudinal gradient, into a tropical and a subtropicaltemperate zone north and south of the Tropic of Capricorn. Study area: Atlantic Forest in Brazil. Methods: We employed niche distribution modeling for 245 species of four large and representative families of epiphytic lichens in the study area, using a stacked species approach to model metacommunity structure via quantitative methods of community analysis (clustering and ordination techniques). To account for sampling bias, we performed background manipulation via a bias layer. Results: We detected a hierarchical structure with three main clusters (A, B, C) subdivided into ten subclusters. Both the main clusters and each of the subclusters correlated strongly with environmental variables and latitude and featured statistically significant, characteristic indicator species, and the subclusters matched floristic subdivisions of the main forest formations recognized in the study area. There was a significant correlation of the three main clusters with the three geopolitical regions in the study area which after all also reflect ecogeographical features. The main separation between the two northern (A, B) and the southern cluster (C) almost precisely followed the division of the Atlantic Forest by the Tropic of Capricorn, supports the notion that the latter is an important delineator in biome formation, reflected by epiphytic lichen metacommunities. Conclusion: We conclude that modeling metacommunities via a stacked species approach is a powerful tool, also to elaborate baseline data for future monitoring of metacommunities in relation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agricultural and livestock sector has caused approximately 24% of total greenhouse gas emissions (GEE) in Brazil in 2017. In 2009, the Brazilian administration established sectorial plans for the mitigation of climatic changes. The Agricultural Plan for Low Carbon (ABC) and the ABC Program are responsible for target projections to mitigate climatic changes and financial incentives for their implementation. Current paper investigates whether available credit for this public policy is being used in technological processes with great potential for the mitigation of GEEs. Secondary sources of data on the amount of credit of ABC program and GEE emissions have been researched. The historical series of emissions revealed that, within agricultural activities, enteric fermentation of animals and the use of agricultural soil are the main causes of GEEs, with almost 86% of emissions. Results also demonstrated that, within seven priority areas, one has specially received highest investment rates, or rather, the recovery of degraded pastureland, with approximately 30% of investments. Further, 15% of amounts initially projected by the ABN program have been available and only 9% have been effectively spent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazilian Cerrado biome is the largest and richest tropical savanna in the world. In order to understand the effects of climate changes on the hydrology of the Cerrado basins, this paper investigates the hydrological impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century under different emissions scenarios on the streamflow and on the droughts in the Sono, Manuel Alves da Natividade and Palma basins, located in the Brazilian Cerrado. For this purpose, the SWAT hydrological model driven by the downscaling of the HadGEM2‐ES and MIROC5 global climate models associated with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used in three time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) were used to characterize droughts. In general, the results showed that the duration, intensity and frequency of the meteorological and hydrological droughts are expected to increase during the future periods. However, the hydrological droughts are projected to be larger than the meteorological droughts. Reductions in the streamflow are indicated in all future time slices and under both RCPs, especially, during dry periods, which may cause negative impacts in the ecological functions of the Cerrado biome, risk for reduction of the recharge of aquifers and risk for the electric energy production in northern Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adoption of sustainable agriculture practices (SAP) has the potential to mitigate climate change's effects, while at the same time minimize degradation of natural resources and increase food production. However, recent policies based on economic incentives alone have largely failed to increase SAP adoption rate at farm level. Understanding farmers' perceptions towards environmental issues and climate change is essential to change this situation. This study aims to categorize farmers in different types, according to their perceptions on environmental issues and on climate change in a sample of Brazilian farmers (n = 172). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis were used. Results showed four clusters of farmers: "Worried", "Apathetic", "Anthropocentric" and "Ecocentric". Contrasting to "Worried" and "Apathetic", farmers in "Anthropocentric" and "Ecocentric" clusters presented pro-environmental behavior, which suggests a high likelihood to adopt SAP. While farmers with an anthropocentric view are oriented to increase their economic gains, ecocentric farmers are motivated by environmental concerns i.e. non-economic factors. Insights of this paper can be used to facilitate effective policy development and strategies to increase the adoption rate of SAP. Image 10125 • The study examines the classified environmental behavior of farmers in Brazil. • Statistical analysis was used for the study. • Farmers who are ecocentric and anthropocentric exhibited pro-environmental behavior. • Pro-environmental behavior is not motivated exclusively by financial incentives. • Results will help to increase the adoption rate of sustainable agricultural practices in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a complex and uncertain global problem because it is driven by human behavior, with long-term climate-related risks for natural and human systems. Changes in human behavior, financing flow, policy instruments, and multilevel governance are needed for mitigating and managing major climate risks. Understanding the social dimensions of climate change is, quite literally, a hot topic to be studied. Most of the scientific literature in the field is focused on the 'hard science'. Different methods of theory building are used in applied social sciences. However, the use of the grounded theory approach in sustainability research, specially on 'soft science' in the fi eld of climate change, is scarce. The intent of this paper is to discussion the use of the grounded theory method in an emergent research fi eld that combines governance and climate change. The article presents substantive results of an emerging theoretical framework that explain the governance process of REDD+ in Brazil, an United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) climate fi nance mechanism focused on mitigating forest-related emissions in developing countries. Instead of discussing best procedures and techniques to build grounded theory, which are largely accessed through several peer-reviewed publications, our focus is to provide a practical guide and discuss lessons learned from the fi eld to integrate the 'REDD+ Governance Theoretical Framework'. Thus, scholars and graduate students are encourage to test and validate (or not) the emerging theoretical framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vulnerability of electric potential generation from water resources has been evidenced due to uncertainties of climatic origin and energy planning. Changes in rainfall regimes are multifactorial phenomena difficult to model. Rainfall is the main natural way of restoring the reservoir levels of hydroelectric power plants. The reduction in rainfall levels may increase in the coming years, resulting in a probable change of the energy matrix configuration of the state of Minas Gerais (MG). This could reduce the share of renewable sources increasing dependence on the importance of energy from fossil fuels, which are the immediate primary sources of energy available. Prior examinations have portrayed the depletion of hydroelectricity in Brazil, or its macro-regions, however this work tries to supply a more focused look at the effects on the electricity and social sectors of the state of Minas Gerais. The study developed in this paper aims to investigate the hydrological potential alteration impacts and consequences on the energy matrix of the state, the greenhouse gas emissions and the social reflexes of these changes due to scenarios motivated by climate change. The investigation intends to show the importance of the water-energy-emissions nexus for energy planning and decision-making, in order to evaluate the best options for dealing with adverse and potentially destabilizing conditions. The results of the analyses show that while hydropower demand was 5.24 Mtoe in 2015, in 2030 the supply of hydropower will be 5.81 Mtoe and 4.72 Mtoe, for the conservative and severe scenarios, respectively. In addition, the effect of climate change may require an increase in the share of non-renewable sources in the energy matrix, which could increase CO 2 e emissions from 4.2% to 7.4% by 2030, compared to the levels in 2016. • Reduction in rainfall levels will change the energy matrix configuration of MG state. • Population growth will boost demand for energy. • It is shown the importance of the water-energy-emissions nexus for energy planning and decision-making. • The energy matrix may considerably increase the CO 2 e emissions by 2030, compared with 2016 levels in the MG state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The São Francisco delta in eastern Brazil is considered a classical example of a wave-dominated delta constructed in a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) far-field region. Although this delta is widely mentioned in the international literature, few details about its sedimentary architecture have been published. In this paper, we use a new dataset consisting of 15 boreholes and 26 radiocarbon datings to discuss the 3D architecture of the delta and the role played by GIA far-field effects in delta construction. The delta plain consists of a 10–12 m thick littoral sand sheet that progrades over a muddy subaqueous clinoform, forming a compound clinoform. Delta construction began between 8.4 and 7.2 ka BP and included a stage of normal regression that lasted until 5.7 ka BP, followed by a stage of forced regression. The transition between these two stages is marked by the highest position of the sand–mud transition in the boreholes. This forced regression is due to a 3–4-m drop in relative sea level since the mid-Holocene, which is characteristic of GIA far-field regions. Additionally, as a consequence of this drop in relative sea level, there is a progressive increase in the altitude of the beach-ridge deposits continentward, which combined with the development of extensive dune fields in the later stages of delta construction, contributes to the increased resilience of the delta to ongoing sea-level rise. The 3D architecture of the delta was strongly influenced by antecedent topography. The delta was built on a bathymetric depression on the shelf that almost entirely traps the sediment load of the São Francisco River. The uneven relief inside this bathymetric depression ultimately controlled lateral variations in the total thickness of the delta edifice. • Two-stage delta construction in GIA far-field regions: normal and forced regression. • Drop in sea level since mid-Holocene in GIA far-field regions increases delta resilience to ongoing sea-level rise. • Antecedent topography strongly controlled the delta 3D architecture. • 3D architecture of the São Francisco wave-dominated delta is presented for the first time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few years, there has been a growing global consensus related to the importance of renewable energy to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. The solution is an increase in the number of renewable power plants but unfortunately, this leads to a high dependence on climate variables which are already affected by climate change. Brazil is one of the largest producers of electricity by renewables through its hydro-dominant power generation system. However, hydro-generation depends on water inflows that are directly affected by climate change that consequently affect the electricity production. Therefore, these changes need to be considered in the operation and planning of a hydro-dominant power system. In this paper, we present the effects of different climate scenarios in the water inflows produced by the regional Eta climate model. Normally, studies use an optimization model to make decisions in case of a hydro-thermal scheduling problem and use the assured energy to evaluate the hydro-production. In this analysis, water inflows used in the optimization process consider different trends according to its associated climate scenario. Our paper shows that climate change may drastically impact the system assured energy and consequently, the system's capability to supply load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how climate affects tree growth is crucial for assessing climate change impacts on forests. Furthermore, trees in more competitive environments appear to respond to climate differently than trees in less competitive environments. An important tool for investigating the growth-environment relationships is tree ring dating. This study aimed to characterize the climatic factors that affect Pinus taeda growth in southern Brazil in two distinct stand types: open growth trees and competing trees. We hypothesized that competing trees present more vulnerable responses to climate variability than open growth trees. Thus, we used increment borers to access long-term growth through tree rings. Pearson’s correlation was applied to compare radial growth with monthly and annual climatic data. The chronologies generated for the two environments present similar year-to-year growth patterns. However, competing trees are more sensitive under limiting climate conditions than open growth trees. Water availability during the current spring/summer was the primary climate constraint for P. taeda growth in the region, followed by high temperatures during the summer, probably due to photosynthetic restrictions. The paper provides additional information on climatic factors that contribute to growth models and reports an important research field, considering planning forest management in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A user-friendly system designed to understand local littoral processes and design/evaluate coastal interventions, named the Coastal Modeling System (SMC ε) is presented. The system, which comprises a set of numerical models, state-of-the-art methodologies and numerical databases, is prepared to provide a method for coastal practitioners, researchers and decision-makers to address coastal issues, such as erosion and flooding or to evaluate coastal defense structures. The system incorporates a method to transfer numerically generated, calibrated and validated wave series to the surf zone; to estimate the sediment littoral drift by means of up-to-date formulations; and to estimate the flooding level and impacts such as those produced by climate change. In this paper, these skills are detailed. The system, which is adaptable to any coastal region, was implemented for the Brazilian coast (SMC-Brasil). The implementation includes databases and methodological adaptations to local characteristics, a dissemination plan and the development of several study cases. Highlights • SMCε is modeling software to deal with all stages of Coastal Engineering Projects. • Database includes 60-year time series of waves, storm surge and astronomical tide. • Methodology/models to study dynamics/impacts at all scales including climate change. • Erosion/flooding assessment due to interventions/natural causes even climate change. • SMCε is free and adaptable to any country. Adaption to Brazilian coast is described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Energy-Water-Food Nexus is one of the most complex sustainability challenges faced by the world. This is particularly true in Brazil, where insufficiently understood interactions within the Nexus are contributing to large-scale deforestation and land-use change, water and energy scarcity, and increased vulnerability to climate change. The reason is a combination of global environmental change and global economic change, putting unprecedented pressures on the Brazilian environment and ecosystems. In this paper, we identify and discuss the main Nexus challenges faced by Brazil across sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, water) and scales (e.g. federal, state, municipal). We use four case studies to explore all nodes of the Nexus. For each, we analyse data from economic and biophysical modelling sources in combination with an overview of the legislative and policy landscape, in order to identify governance shortcomings in the context of growing challenges. We analyse the complex interdependence of developments at the global and local (Brazilian) levels, highlighting the impact of global environmental and economic change on Brazil and, conversely, that of developments in Brazil for other countries and the world. We conclude that there is a need to adjust the scientific approach to these challenges as an enabling condition for stronger science-policy bridges for sustainability policy-making. Highlights • Overview of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus in Brazil for science, law and policy. • Review of the complex linkages in the Nexus for water, energy and food security. • Review of the law addressing the Nexus and its coordination deficiencies. • Recommendations for strengthening the Nexus science-policy bridge in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]