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Featured Application: This review subscribes to the MiDiNA project as a part of the European Union-African Union partnership for renewable energy, 'LEAP-RE'. This review will shed light on the energy transition in North African countries and the resilient controls for improving power availability in microgrids. It seeks to draw attention to the advantages and drawbacks of each type of control as well as discuss the specifications for resilient controls that are necessary for microgrids in the North African environment. The ambition of making North Africa a hub for renewable energies and green hydrogen has prompted local governments and the private sector to work together towards boosting the growth of locally available, sustainable energy resources. Numerous climate and energy challenges can be addressed by microgrid technologies, which enable cost-effective incorporation of renewable energy resources and energy storage systems through smart management and control infrastructures. This paper discusses the ongoing energy transition in the countries of North Africa, highlighting the potential for renewable energy sources as well as regional obstacles and challenges. Additionally, it explores how robust and stable controls and advanced management strategies can improve microgrids' performances. Special attention is given to assessing the advantages and disadvantages of conventional and advanced controllers, with an emphasis on resilience needed within the harsh North African environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For millennia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been a culturally dynamic zone, bounded by maritime societies dependent on the sea for communication, trade and livelihoods. The archaeological evidence of these past societies represents an extraordinary physical legacy of human endeavour and presence across this region, contributing to senses of place, identity and belonging amongst contemporary coastal communities. However, the coastal landscapes and marine environment of the MENA region are undergoing a period of profound change, associated with large-scale human development and climate change. In order to assess this change and the level of impact on the resource, the Maritime Endangered Archaeology project (MarEA) was established in 2019 to document cultural heritage sites and landscapes across the coastal and near-shore zones of the survey region. This paper introduces the work of the project and outlines a series of case studies presented in this volume that are representative of the variety and depth of work being undertaken within the project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa is becoming one of the most sensitive and vulnerable regions of the global ecosystem due to its variable climate, complex topography, and diversity of natural ecosystems. In the context of global warming, climate change not only alters the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in North Africa, but also affects the spatial distribution of vegetation as well as the structure and function of ecosystems, causing changes in the North African ecosystem and inducing a series of food security problems. In this regard, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of climate change, climate production potential (CPP), and influencing factors in Africa based on meteorological data for 1901–2019, using the Thornthwaite Memorial model, Mann–Kendall mutation test, and Pearson correlation model. The results indicated that from 1901 to 2019, the CPP in North Africa decreased by 4.9%, while the region's precipitation experienced a decline of 5.2%. The phased trend in CPP was consistent with the change in precipitation. Temperature and precipitation were the main limiting factors for CPP in North Africa, with precipitation being more limiting. In general, North Africa's CPP was more sensitive to precipitation, and a continued 'warm and dry' climate in the future could lead to an increasing downward trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Irrigation & Drainage is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Relaciones Internacionales (1699-3950) is the property of Autonomous University of Madrid, Spain, International Relations Studies Group (GERI) Law Faculty and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

How is the white researcher perceived by the border apparatus? What does this interaction say about the border itself? Ethnographic research has framed such questions as a debate on 'insiders' and 'outsiders' in fieldwork. This is problematic, as it assumes that a researcher can really be 'external' to the social worlds they investigate, as if the field site existed in isolation from transnational processes of racialised extraction. This paper challenges such an assumption by arguing that the white researcher cannot be an 'outsider' to the North African border: they approach it as the beneficiaries of a system of colonial and capital extractivism that feeds itself through migration control. I build on Ahmed's work on white phenomenology to analyse how various border workers perceived, made sense of and reacted to my presence as a white European woman at three different sites on the Spanish–Moroccan border. I argue that the white researcher is an expected presence at the border, as the accumulated history of (post)colonial encounters leads them where others have been before. Although whiteness opens doors, only a certain kind of performed whiteness remains welcome in the borderscape. The white researcher who appears not to be aligning with or supporting the premises of migration control is perceived by border workers as a potentially disruptive presence, and contained in different ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of future West African monsoon (WAM) precipitation change in response to increasing greenhouse gases are uncertain, and an improved understanding of the drivers of WAM precipitation change is needed to help aid model development and better inform adaptation policies in the region. This paper addresses one of those drivers, the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 (i.e., the impact of increased CO2 in the absence of SST warming and changes in plant physiology). An atmosphere-only model is used to examine both the equilibrium response and the evolution of the change over the days following the instantaneous CO2 increase. In response to the direct radiative effect, WAM precipitation increases due to a weakening of the shallow meridional circulation over North Africa, advecting less dry air into the convective column associated with the monsoon. Changes in the shallow circulation are associated with atmospheric and surface warming patterns over North Africa. A large-scale atmospheric warming pattern, whereby North Africa warms more than the monsoon region, leads to a northward shift in the Saharan heat low. In response to increased precipitation in the Sahel, local soil moisture feedbacks play a key role in determining the low-level circulation change and the location of the intertropical discontinuity. The large-scale warming patterns over North Africa result from differing levels of constraint applied by convective quasi-equilibrium. While this constraint acts strongly in the equatorial WAM region, preventing the region from warming in response to the direct radiative effect, North Africa is not strongly constrained and is therefore able to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Healthy wetlands are among the most effective sinks for carbon on the planet, and thus contribute to mitigate climate change. However, in North Africa, coastal wetlands are under high pressure especially from urban sprawl and tourism development, due to the rapid population growth and migration. This paper analyzed the effects of land use/land cover changes on carbon stocks, over 20 years, in six North African coastal wetlands, and estimated the economic value of the carbon sequestered during the considered period. The methodology used combined remote sensing and modeling. The results showed that among the six studied sites, only two (Moulouya and Moulay Bouselham) showed an increase in stored carbon and therefore are potential carbon sinks. In turn, the other four showed a more or less significant loss of carbon, which will likely be released into the atmosphere. The underlying processes that drive changes in carbon dynamics are mainly urban expansion and land use conversion, which often occurs at the expense of the natural habitats surrounding the wetlands. Understanding these processes can provide valuable decision-making information for land use planning, wetlands conservation and carbon reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a scoping review approach to inductively assess the evolution of empirical adaptation research in the global South over the period 2010 to 2020 using, as indicators of the literature, three leading adaptation journals covering different scales of analysis: Global Environmental Change, Regional Environmental Change and Climate and Development. The review confirms that previous calls for an increase in empirical adaptation research have been heeded. Research covers both policy and practice, and also different scales, with a particular focus on agricultural and rural settings. There is significant and growing interest in the determinants of adaptation and adaptive capacity (including the role of barriers and enablers), and a small but growing interest in the role of gender. The overall increase in total publications does not show even geographical or sectoral coverage. Large swathes of sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East/North Africa remain severely under-researched; and the overwhelming majority of papers focus on rural and agricultural issues rather than cities. This analysis offers tangible evidence to highlight where geographical and thematic gaps exist in our research on adaptation in the global South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most countries in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region currently face water scarcity and rising water demand. In order to respond to these challenges, many MENA countries proceed to the use of desalination. As desalination processes are highly energy-intensive, the use of conventional energy for the operation of desalination plants contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, with negative impacts on the water cycle. The use of renewable energy sources to supply desalination plants with electricity can be a more sustainable and environmentally friendlier option to bridge the water demand gap. The present paper outlines the main barriers to desalination using renewable energies (referred to in short as 'renewable energy desalination', RED) in most MENA countries, gives an overview of main features of the water and energy policies in the MENA region, and compares them to the framework conditions in Australia or Spain. Supportive policy approaches to overcome the existing barriers and to promote RED are highlighted. The paper advocates the importance of adopting a more consistent legal framework to foster the deployment of RED and thereby reduce the effects of climate change and water scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the Maghreb region is threatened by climate change, which could significantly increase the relevance of water development policies, given that economic growth of the majority of Maghreb countries is closely related to water resources. To face this threat, the Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) have adopted climate change adaptation strategies that highlighted many alternatives to resolve water scarcity and the threat of climate change. However, the adopted alternatives and solutions include economic irrigation options and non-conventional resources with high energy consumption such as water desalination and water reuse. Therefore, developing these alternatives will increase the energy consumption in the water sector. The aim of this paper is to analyze the strategic issues of the integrated development of the water and energy sectors, as well as the level of interactions and nexus between water and energy that are considered in the sectors policy management and planning in the Maghreb countries. The analysis is focused on the case of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia and aims to identify some strategic recommendations and orientations to promote an integrated development of the water and energy system. The SWOT analysis (SWOT standing for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threat) is used to undertake this analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water storage plays a profound role in the lives of people across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as it is the most water-stressed region worldwide. The lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas are simulated to be very sensitive to future climate warming. Available water capacity depends on hydroclimate variables such as temperature and precipitation that will depend on socioeconomic pathways and changes in climate. This work explores changes in both the mean and extreme terrestrial water storage (TWS) under an unmitigated greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario (SSP5-8.5) and stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) designed to offset GHG-induced warming above 1.5 ∘ C and compares both with historical period simulations. Both mean TWS and extreme TWS are projected to significantly decrease under SSP5-8.5 over the domain, except for the Arabian Peninsula, particularly in the wetter lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas. Relative to global warming, SAI partially ameliorates the decreased mean TWS in the wet regions, while it has no significant effect on the increased TWS in drier lands. In the entire domain studied, the mean TWS is larger under SAI than pure GHG forcing, mainly due to the significant cooling and, in turn, a substantial decrease in evapotranspiration under SAI relative to SSP5-8.5. Changes in extreme water storage excursions under global warming are reduced by SAI. Extreme TWS under both future climate scenarios is larger than throughout the historical period across Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula, but the response of the more continental eastern North Africa hyper-arid climate is different from the neighboring dry lands. In the latter case, we note a reduction in the mean TWS trend under both GHG and SAI scenarios, with extreme TWS values also showing a decline compared to historical conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Under the Out-of-Africa scenario, various routes have been supposed for the exit of the African Homo sapiens. The Mediterranean coast of North Africa, the Sahara, the Nile Valley, the Red Sea coast, and the Bab el Mandab could have been corridors leading out of Africa. Even though data are still too scanty, heterogeneous, and patchy to support one hypothesis against the others, scholars have tended to search for “the” route out of Africa, as if one passageway would rule out possible others. However, a single-dispersal model may not be correct as early modern humans may have found different ways to leave their native lands. If North Africa can contribute to an understanding of the adaptational dynamics of modern human peopling and their radiation towards different parts of Eurasia, other regions, such as the Horn of Africa, may be contemplated as well. This paper focuses on the events that took place in North Africa. In this region, anatomically modern humans were not always successful once they departed from Africa and moved towards the temperate, and dry, latitudes of the eastern Mediterranean basin in the Levant. Two distinct movements have been recognised within the Out-of-Africa 2 model, one occurring between c. 130 and 80 ka, the other taking place after 50 ka. The two phenomena were separated by an abrupt climatic transition that affected the south-western Mediterranean basin during the transition from MIS 5a to MIS 4, around 74 ka. As these two events exhibit very distinct features and are divided by a long time span, it seems reasonable to refer to the first event as “Out of Africa 2a” and to the second one as “Out of Africa 2b”. During the first migration out of Africa, modern humans seem to have failed in the competition for resources against Neanderthals, whereas they succeeded in their second migration. This paper examines some of the reasons of the failure of the Out-of-Africa-2a migration and, on the other hand, of the success of the Out-of-Africa-2b movement with particular attention to North Africa. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In Mediterranean and north-African regions, cultural trajectories have shown trends sometimes coincident with climatic changes. The mid Holocene was a period of intense changes in climate, and in environmental and cultural systems. This paper reports pollen and charcoal studies from these areas aiming at presenting how impressive cultural changes frequently coincided with critical climate oscillations. Three of the main dry events of key relevance for climatic—cultural changes were selected to discuss this topic: c. 8200 cal. yr BP, c. 6000 cal. yr BP, and c. 4200 cal. yr BP. Five examples from on-site case studies were reported: (1) Wadi Teshuinat area (Fezzan, Libya, Central Sahara); (2) Benzù cave (Ceuta mountains, Spain, NW Africa); (3) La Vaquera Cave (Central System, Spain); (4) Terramara di Montale (Po Plain, Northern Italy); (5) Arslantepe (Eastern Anatolia, Turkey). Their archaeobotanical record helps to recognise and date human presence and activity in different territories. In these examples, anthropogenic signals and comparisons with other sites could be useful to distinguish climate signal from human impact in pollen records. Charcoals are evidence of human activity in cases which are not shown by pollen. Overexploitation of thinned plant resources, including overgrazing, accelerated the evolution towards xeric conditions during drying climatic phases. Humans enforced the aridity crisis and enhanced its signal in palaeoclimatic records. Sometimes, changing exploitation strategies and movements led to the onset of new cultures. Nevertheless, the onset and decline of a culture are very different critical phases, and different agents must have been involved in their occurrence. The Bronze Age marked the environment more than the Neolithic, probably because there is a relation between improvements in knowledge, cultural changes and the evolution of complex forms of land exploitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the North African response to natural climatic variability has become an important research focus in recent years, especially considering the uncertain influence of anthropogenic warming to present and future climate changes. Historic climatic perturbations are associated with changes in Atlantic circulation, which in turn have been linked to water resource and land degradation issues in North Africa. In this paper, Late Quaternary climate–ocean changes affecting western North Africa are investigated to provide a temporal contribution to the debate. Major and trace element palaeoenvironmental proxies recorded in a radiocarbon dated sediment core collected under an upwelling cell, offshore Cap Blanc (Mauritania), are analysed. Element groups representing terrigenous (Saharan dust) and biogenic (marine plankton) input, and ocean-bottom redox conditions, indicate that the region is sensitive to previously documented North Atlantic climate–ocean perturbations, such as Bond Cycles, Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Additionally, the African Humid Period is recognized and related to an intensification of the African monsoon system that enhanced North East Trade Wind driven upwelling. It appears from this study that North Atlantic sea-surface temperature strongly influences North African precipitation throughout the Late Quaternary, with Atlantic sea-surface warming associated with enhanced North African aridity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Morocco, in North Africa, is a country vastly exposed to the whims of climate change, with frequent moisture and heat stresses occurring throughout the season. Hence, developing climate‐resilient, high‐yielding, and nutritious cultivars of durum wheat [Triticum turgidum L. durum (Desf.)] is a major goal and challenge of Moroccan crop breeders. In that sense, the exploitation of crop wild relatives (CWRs) holds great potential to increase genetic diversity for critical adaptation traits. 'Nachit' (Reg. no. CV‐1202, PI 702365) is a CWR‐derived durum wheat cultivar released in 2018 for cultivation in Morocco by a joint effort of the National Institute of Agronomic Research, Morocco and the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas. Nachit was released due to its good adaptation to the Moroccan dry conditions combined with high yield potential under irrigated conditions, extremely large grains, and richness in protein content. It also combines several traits for drought tolerance such as earliness and deep root system. Nachit was derived from a top cross between two elite lines and a wild emmer [T. turgidum ssp. dicoccoides] collected in Syria. Hence, it provides a substantial example of exploitation of CWRs to achieve a superior cultivar adapted to the climatic stresses and responding to human needs. Core Ideas: Developing climate‐resilient, high‐yielding, and nutritious varieties for sustainable production is a challenge.The use of crop wild relatives is a promising approach to enhance genetic diversity of cultivated crops.Nachit durum wheat successfully incorporates high protein content and several traits for drought tolerance from crop wild relatives.Nachit shows good adaptation to Moroccan dry conditions.Nachit seed is available for research purposes or to develop new germplasm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The civilization and tangible cultural heritage of the Kharga Oasis has a historical precedence over that of the old Nile Valley civilization. Approximately 12,000 years ago, a significant prehistoric migration occurred from the Kharga Oasis to the Nile Valley. This event was motivated by climate change and the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which caused a shift in Egypt's savannah forests from abundant vegetation to an extremely dry desert. The present study investigates the progressive deterioration of the tangible cultural and civilized legacy of the Kharga Oasis over the course of several millennia, positing that this phenomenon can be attributed to the area's vulnerability to paleoclimatic fluctuations. The evaluation of the Kharga Oasis' susceptibility to climate change was predicated on the scrutiny of petroglyphs that were unearthed at different sites within the Oasis. This analysis was reinforced by paleoclimate information and radiocarbon dating (C14). The utilization of an interdisciplinary approach yielded significant insights into the dynamic climate patterns and their effects on the Kharga Oasis across temporal scales. The results illustrated a noteworthy alteration in climate, which caused the conversion of the Oasis terrain from being heavily wooded to becoming arid, mainly due to extended periods of drought. The present research postulates a novel and alternate hypothesis concerning the archaeological chronology of human habitation in the Kharga Oasis from ancient eras, predicated on the analysis of pictorial depictions on rock surfaces. The findings of this study made a noteworthy contribution to the current corpus of knowledge regarding the vulnerability of the ancient Egyptian society to the impacts of climate variability. Moreover, the petroglyphs' depictions provided a distinctive viewpoint on the climatic fluctuations that occurred in the Sahara and North Africa throughout the Holocene epoch, as well as the fundamental causative factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reconstruct the paleoclimate in North Africa during the Paleocene, the calcareous nannofossils were quantitatively analyzed at higher resolution from the stratigraphic succession of Gebel Nezzazat (west central Sinai, Egypt). The studied interval extends from NP4 to NP8. Zone NP4 can be subdivided into four subzones from base to top: NTp7B, NTp8A, NTp8B, and NTp8C. The base of the Selandian age is located at the base of NTp8B (Second Radiation of Fasciculithus). The Selandian/Thanetian boundary (S/T) is tentatively placed at the base of Zone NP7/8. The identified nannofossil zones were compared with that of the Tethyan region for the Danian/Selandian boundary. The calcareous nannofossil assemblages were used as indicators for medium-term climatic fluctuations. The pre-Danian (LDE) is dominated by the cool-water Zeugrhabdotus sigmoides and Neochiastozygus modestus, while the post-Danian interval is dominated by Coccolithus pelagicus and Ericsonia subpertusa. Before the onset of the Selandian-Thanetian boundary, a marked shift in the nannofossil species was observed, where Fasciculithus increased significantly, while marker Danian-Selandian genera (e.g., Lithoptychius Neochiastozygus, Chiasmolithus, and Cruciplacolithus) decreased dramatically. Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling (nMDS) and permutational analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) in addition to the Temperature and Nutrient indices (TI and NI) indicated a marked difference between the warm eutrophic nannofossil assemblages at the Danian/Selandian (D/S) and the Selandian/Thanetian (S/T) transitions and the eutrophic cold-water assemblages during the background sedimentation. A sharp increase in sea surface temperature and decrease in nutrients was observed at D/S and represents the Latest Danian Event (LDE), while the second warming event was started prior to the Selandian and may represent the Early Late Paleocene Event "ELPE." The sea-level lowstand may have limited water circulation, where surface water fertility decreased significantly. Consequently, nannofossil diversity decreased. The rapid recovery after the LDE was attributed to the radiation of warm-water taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater shortages in the Middle East and North Africa's region (MENA) cause serious issues, while climate change causes even more issues. The current study examines how climate change may impact future irrigation requirements in Egypt's Upper Region using the medium greenhouse emission RCP 4.5 and high emission RCP 8.5 scenarios. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Fifth Assessment Report, the climatic projections for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the years 2023–2080 and 2081–2100 were used to determine the patterns of temperature and rainfall in the upper Egypt territory. The CROPWAT model was employed to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) for the upper Egypt territory key crops sugar cane, potatoes, berseem clover (alfalfa), dry bean, wheat, cotton, maize, and tomato based on the predicted meteorological conditions. Five different scenarios for the key crops' future irrigation needs were calculated. The results reveal that under RCP 4.5 greenhouse emission for the periods 2023–2080 and 2081–2100, respectively, the overall NIWR for all examined crops increases by 5.1 and 5.9% in comparison to the current (2022) total NIWR for all crops. The total NIWR for all crops analyzed increases by 7.7 and 9.7% under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenario for the periods 2023–2080 and 2081–2100, respectively, in contrast to the current total NIWR for all crops. It is important to consider changes in water resource management in the MENA region, such as applying modern irrigation systems, using crop pattern rotation strategies with minimal water demands, and changing crop calendars or the times and locations of cropping activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture extension since Early Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original attribution method based on an emulation of offline coupled climate and ecosystem models. The emulator connects the potential productivity of grapevines to global direct and indirect climate drivers, notably orbital parameters, solar and volcanic activities, demography, and greenhouse gas concentrations. This approach is particularly useful to place the evolution of future agrosystems in the context of their past variations. We found that variations in potential area for viticulture during the last 3 millennia in the Mediterranean Basin were mainly due to volcanic activity, while the effects of solar activity and orbital changes were negligible. In the future, as expected, the dominating factor is the increase in greenhouse gases, causing significantly drier conditions and thus major difficulties for viticulture in Spain and North Africa. These constraints will concern significant areas of the southern Mediterranean Basin when global warming exceeds +2 ∘ C above preindustrial conditions. Our experiments showed that even intense volcanic activity comparable to that of the Samalas – sometimes considered to be the starting point of the Little Ice Age in the mid-13th century – would not decrease aridity and so not slow down this decline in viticulture extension in the southern margin of the Mediterranean area. This result does not confirm the idea of geoengineering that solar radiation modification (SRM) is an efficient option to limit future global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Review of African Political Economy is the property of Review of Political Economy (ROAPE) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The heterogeneous ecosystems in the Mediterranean Basin (MB) are becoming sensitive to water stress. To investigate the climatic stress, a water budget study was conducted over the basin using TerraClimate simulations for a long temporal range (1990–2020). According to the budget accounting, forested regions received the highest precipitation (P) on average compared to other land use types (annual mean ≈633 mm yr−1), and even then, they were in a water deficit state (−0.42 mm yr−1). Tree plantations in North Africa (Libya and Morocco) were also in a water deficit state; however, their average P was very low (≈12 mm yr−1) compared to that of northern parts of the MB, and the average Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) was ≈15 mm yr−1. Also, the water balance in other land use systems (rain-fed, irrigated croplands, and rangelands) was either negative or near zero. As a whole, the basin's average annual P was ≈538 mm yr−1, the annual average AET was ≈415 mm yr−1, and the runoff (Q) was equivalent to 123 mm yr−1, which shows a strong influence of ET over the region. Since runoff was negligible in most dry areas, the AET's large contribution was notable in the North African base of the Atlas Mountains including the Nile delta region. This indicates that precipitation and evaporation are the principal mechanisms of the water balance in the MB. The result shows strong climate variability over Southern Europe, Turkey, and the western Balkans in the recent years, affecting the AET and making their land use systems more vulnerable to water stress. This benchmark study signifies the consistent need for water storage in the Mediterranean vegetation systems of the basin. It also indicates two distinct climate clusters for water balance modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deserts are important landscapes on the earth and their variations have impacts on global climate through feedback processes. However, there is a limited understanding of the climatic controls on the spatial and temporal variations of global deserts. Here, we use climate reanalysis datasets, global land use/land cover (LULC) products and the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model outputs to calculate the changing of global deserts during 1982–2020, and estimate future spatial trends of global deserts. Our results show that mean annual global desert area over this period is 17.64×106 km2, accounting for 12% of the terrestrial land. Desert areas decreased rapidly from the end of the 1980s to the 1990s in North Africa and Australia, followed by a slow expansion in the early 21st century globally. Spatio-temporal variations of areas of arid climate are characterized by interdecadal fluctuations, and there are clear regional differences in dynamics of the aridity index (AI, used here as a proxy for the area of drylands) and desert areas. Statistical analyses reveal that increased vegetation cover is directly related to the reduction of desert area, while potential evaporation, surface temperature and humidity are also significantly correlated with the desert area. The relationship between wind speed and desert dynamics varies regionally. The results of the CMIP6 simulations suggest that global deserts will expand in the 21st century, albeit at different rates under the ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios. Desert expansions are modelled to be greatest in Asia, Africa and Australia, while those of southern North Africa may reduce as their southern borders migrate northwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are based on scenarios for future emissions, but these are not statistically-based and do not have a full probabilistic interpretation. Raftery et al. (Nat Clim Change 7:637–641, 2017) and Liu and Raftery (Commun Earth Environ 2:1–10, 2021) developed probabilistic forecasts for global average temperature change to 2100, but these do not give forecasts for specific parts of the globe. Here we develop a method for probabilistic long-term spatial forecasts of local average annual temperature change, combining the probabilistic global method with a pattern scaling approach. This yields a probability distribution for temperature in any year and any part of the globe in the future. Out-of-sample predictive validation experiments show the method to be well calibrated. Consistent with previous studies, we find that for long-term temperature changes, high latitudes warm more than low latitudes, continents more than oceans, and the Northern Hemisphere more than the Southern Hemisphere, except for the North Atlantic. There is a 5% chance that the temperature change for the Arctic would reach 16 ∘ C. With probability 95%, the temperature of North Africa, West Asia and most of Europe will increase by at least 2 ∘ C. We find that natural variability is a large part of the uncertainty in early years, but this declines so that by 2100 most of the overall uncertainty comes from model uncertainty and uncertainty about future emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater extraction in most Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries far exceeds its renewability, which ranges from 6% to 100%. Freshwater resources to support food production are very limited in this region. Future climate predictions include more consistent and longer wet periods with increasing surplus rainfall, which will enhance flood and flash flood occurrences in the MENA. Demand management of groundwater resources and managed aquifer recharge (MAR, also called groundwater replenishment, water banking, and artificial recharge, is the purposeful recharge of water to aquifers for subsequent recovery or environmental benefits) represent essential strategies to overcome the challenges associated with groundwater depletion and climate change impacts. Such strategies would enable the development of groundwater resources in the MENA region by minimizing the stress placed on these resources, as well as reducing deterioration in groundwater quality. Groundwater augmentation through recharge dams is a common practice in different countries around the globe. Most dams in the MENA region were built to enhance groundwater recharge, and even the few protection dams also act as recharge dams in one way or another. However, the operating systems of these dams are mostly dependent on the natural infiltration of the accumulated water in the reservoir area, with limited application of MAR. This review presents analyses of groundwater renewability and the effectiveness of recharge dams on groundwater recharge, as well as the potential of MAR technology. This study indicates that the recharge efficiency of dam's ranges between 15 to 47% and is clustered more around the lower limit. Efficiency is reduced by the clogging of the reservoir bed with fine materials. Therefore, there is a need to improve the operation of dams using MAR technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present, and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene (MH) and the last interglacial (LIG) were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth's climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the preindustrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including 1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature that is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; 2) a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; 3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; 4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; 5) a westward shift of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and 6) an expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget (i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation). However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and preindustrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity, and density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world'smost conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the possible links between rapid climate change (RCC) and social change in the Near East and surrounding regions (Anatolia, central Syria, southern Israel, Mesopotamia, Cyprus and eastern and central Sahara) during the ‘long’ 4th millennium (∼4500–3000) BC. Twenty terrestrial and 20 marine climate proxies are used to identify long-term trends in humidity involving transitions from humid to arid conditions and vice versa. The frequency distribution of episodes of relative aridity across these records is calculated for the period 6300–2000 BC, so that the results may be interpreted in the context of the established arid episodes associated with RCC around 6200 and 2200 BC (the 8.2 and 4.2 kyr events). We identify two distinct episodes of heightened aridity in the early-mid 4th, and late 4th millennium BC. These episodes cluster strongly at 3600–3700 and 3100–3300 BC. There is also evidence of localised aridity spikes in the 5th and 6th millennia BC. These results are used as context for the interpretation of regional and local archaeological records with a particular focus on case studies from western Syria, the middle Euphrates, southern Israel and Cyprus. Interpretation of the records involves the construction of plausible narratives of human–climate interaction informed by concepts of adaptation and resilience from the literature on contemporary (i.e. 21st century) climate change and adaptation. The results are presented alongside well-documented examples of climatically-influenced societal change in the central and eastern Sahara, where detailed geomorphological studies of ancient environments have been undertaken in tandem with archaeological research. While the narratives for the Near East and Eastern Mediterranean remain somewhat speculative, the use of resilience and adaptation frameworks allows for a more nuanced treatment of human–climate interactions and recognises the diversity and context-specificity of human responses to climatic and environmental change. Our results demonstrate that there is a need for more local environmental data to be collected ‘at source’ during archaeological excavations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to elucidate impacts of climate change on the availability and security of water and energy in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA region; including the Eastern Mediterranean) in the context of the water–energy nexus. It largely builds on existing knowledge and understanding and aims to present a review of existing information on this topic. The region is particularly challenged by a number of factors, including the large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades, and substantial societal and economical transitions, as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries in the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges regarding water and energy security in the region. Major impacts of climate change include a significant increase in summer temperatures, which will lead to a growing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures. A general decrease in precipitation in many of the MENA countries is foreseen, resulting in enhanced droughts and a growing number of dry spells. In addressing energy and water scarcities and their mutual interrelationships, an integrated water–energy nexus concept offers promising prospects to improve environmental, climate, human, and political security. However, only very few countries in the MENA region have presently implemented such a concept. Mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing water and energy scarcity include enhanced efficiency of resource use, integrated technology assessments regarding electricity generation, and a stronger reliance on renewable/solar technologies. While looking at the MENA region as a whole, some emphasis will be given to Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context and background: Wheat is one of the oldest crops in the world and has always been one of the most important staple foods for millions of people around the world, especially in North Africa, where wheat is the most dominant crop. The importance of wheat yield estimation is well known in agricultural management and policy making at regional and national levels. In semi-arid areas such as the case of Morocco, an operational cereal yield estimating system that could assist decision makers in planning annual imports is needed. In some developed countries, several effective tools are now available to monitor crops and optimize farm-level decisions by combining crop simulation models with seasonal forecasts. However, few tools are used to effectively manage crops at the farm level to cope with climate variability and risk. Goal and objectives: The following article presents an overview of current methods used for wheat yield estimation in the world and in Morocco Methodology: Various sections describing traditional methods, simulation models, and remote sensing. Then a section is devoted to the estimation methods used in Morocco and their efficiencies. Results: This article is very useful for researchers working on this subject because it brings together all the methods of estimating wheat yields worldwide and classifies them into categories and then situates Morocco, which is a relevant example of a North African country that is a leader in the use of spatial techniques and in the monitoring of crops, and wheat in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Molecular phylogenetic studies that have included sirenians from the genera Trichechus, Dugong, and Hydrodamalis have resolved their interrelationships but have yielded divergence age estimates that are problematically discordant. The ages of these lineage splits have profound implications for how to interpret the sirenian fossil record--including clade membership, biogeographic patterns, and correlations with Earth history events. In an effort to address these issues, here we present a total evidence phylogenetic analysis of Sirenia that includes living and fossil species and applies Bayesian tip-dating methods to estimate their interrelationships and divergence times. In addition to extant sirenians, our dataset includes 56 fossil species from 106 dated localities and numerous afrotherian outgroup taxa. Genetic, morphological, temporal, and biogeographic data are assessed simultaneously to bring all available evidence to bear on sirenian phylogeny. The resulting time-tree is then used for Bayesian geocoordinates reconstruction analysis, which models ancestral geographic areas at splits throughout the phylogeny, thereby allowing us to infer the direction and timing of dispersals. Our results suggest that Pan-Sirenia arose in North Africa during the latest Paleocene and that the Eocene evolution of stem sirenians was primarily situated in the Tethyan realm. In the late Eocene, some lineages moved into more northern European latitudes, an area that became the source region for a key trans-Atlantic dispersal towards the Caribbean and northern-adjacent west Atlantic. This event led to the phylogenetic and biogeographic founding of crown Sirenia with the Dugongidae-Trichechidae split occurring at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary (~33.9 Ma), temporally coincident with the onset of dropping global sea levels and temperatures. This region became the nexus of sirenian diversification and supported taxonomically-rich dugongid communities until the earliest Pliocene. The Dugonginae-Hydrodamalinae split occurred near Florida during the early Miocene (~21.2 Ma) and was followed by a west-bound dispersal that gave rise to the Pacific hydrodamalines. The late middle Miocene (~12.2 Ma) split of Dugong from all other dugongines also occurred near Florida and our analyses suggest that the Indo-Pacific distribution of modern dugongs is the result of a trans-Pacific dispersal. From at least the early Miocene, trichechid evolution was based entirely in South America, presumably within the Pebas Wetlands System. We infer that the eventual establishment of Amazon drainage into the South Atlantic allowed the dispersal of Trichechus out of South America no earlier than the mid-Pliocene. Our analyses provide a new temporal and biogeographic framework for understanding major events in sirenian evolution and their possible relationships to oceanographic and climatic changes. These hypotheses can be further tested with the recovery and integration of new fossil evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article highlights a method for natural heating and cooling of systems in areas of moderate climate. Movement of air is generated in the system by an underground piping system. In this paper, we discuss a feasibility study in Algeria of air-conditioning using a ground source heat pump (GSHP) with vertical mounting, coupled with a solar collector. This study consists of modeling ground temperature at different depths, for a clay soil in the city of Tlemcen. Our model is developed from the non-stationary heat equation for a homogeneous medium and takes into consideration the soil thermal diffusivity. It uses the daily ambient temperature during a typical year for the locality of Tlemcen. The study shows the feasibility of using a heating/cooling GSHP in the town of Tlemcen for the particular soil type, and indicates that the duration of air flow in the borehole has a major influence on the outgoing temperature drilling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change continues to increase the intensity, frequency and impacts of weather and climate extremes. This work uses bias-adjusted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) model datasets to investigate the future changes in temperature extremes over Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. The mid- (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) are studied under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Quantile mapping function greatly improved the performance of CMIP6 by reducing the notable biases to match the distribution of observation data, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results show persistent significant warming throughout the 21st century, increasing with the increase in radiative forcing. The MED will record a higher increase in temperature extremes as compared to SAH. The warming is supported by the projected reduction in cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p), with the reduction in the number of cold nights exceeding cold days. Notably, warm spell duration index (WSDI) and summer days (SU) have a positive trend in both timelines over the entire study area. There is a need to simulate how climate sensitive sectors, such as water and agriculture, are likely to be affected by projected changes under different scenarios for informed decision making in the choice and implementation of adaptation and mitigation effective measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study analyses changes in the timing and duration of the hot days season over the Middle East and North Africa region from 1970 to 2099 using model simulations of 11 regional models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, a non‐symmetrical lengthening of the hot days season is projected, with a tendency to extend more into spring than into autumn. By the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario, Western Africa and the Persian Gulf display a hot days season starting 60 days earlier than in the historical period (1970–1999) (May vs. July, respectively). Southernmost latitudes are the most affected by a later retreat of the hot days season, of up to 60 days with respect to the historical period (October vs. August). The length of the extreme season is projected to increase between 100 and 120 days for the southernmost latitudes and the Persian Gulf resulting in nearly four more months with hot days conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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While paleoclimate records show that the Earth System is characterized by several different tipping points, their representation within Earth System models (ESMs) remains poorly constrained. This is because historical observations do not encompass variations large enough to provoke such regime changes, and paleoclimate conditions are rarely used to help develop and tune ESMs, which potentially ignores a rich source of information on abrupt climate change. A critical example is the early to mid-Holocene "greening" and subsequent rapid desertification of the Sahara, which most ESMs fail to reproduce, casting doubt on the representation of land-atmosphere coupling and monsoon dynamics. Here, we show that this greening and abrupt termination can be successfully simulated with one ESM after optimizing uncertain model components using both present-day observations and crucially mid-Holocene (6,000 y before present) reconstructions. The optimized model displays abrupt threshold behavior, which shows excellent agreement with long paleoclimate records that were not used in the original optimization. These results suggest that in order to realistically capture climate-system thresholds, ESMs first need to be conditioned with appropriate paleoclimate information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ancient ruins of Djemila, located in northeastern Algeria, represent the most important Roman archaeological site in North Africa. Originally named "Cuicul" in 96 or 97 A.D./C.E. when the Roman emperor Nerva built and established it as a Roman colony, Djemila ("beautiful" in Arabic) has been included on the UNESCO World Heritage list since 1982. The primary research objective at these ruins was to explain the major decay patterns observed, and the related processes affecting the hard grey-striped limestone widely used in the construction of the city. Mineralogical, petrophysical, and mechanical tests were performed on samples of this limestone collected from both the ancient city and the original quarry using different tools (XRD, XRF, SEM-EDX, etc.) and methods. Results obtained show that this stone has a high compressive strength with very low porosity and capillary absorption. The linear thermal coefficient showed a marked difference between the matrix and the veinlet of the same sampled stone. Hence, exposure over many centuries to strong climatic variations due to the typical Mediterranean climate of Northeastern Algeria naturally resulted in the characteristic yet spectacular decay patterns exhibited on the stone, namely cracks, fractures, contour scaling, large fragmentation, and delamination, as well as orange patina and lichens. The main effective parameters involved are temperature variations (thermal gradient), along with the wet–dry cycles resulting from climatic changes, and insolation decay due to the extreme radiant energy. These factors work in conjunction with the heterogeneity of the stone (presence of the calcite veinlets on the matrix) causing a fatigue phenomenon which, in turn, catalyzes deterioration patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate variability is strongly related to large‐scale circulation modes. However, little is known about changes in their spectral characteristics under climate change. Here, we introduce piecewise evolutionary spectra to quantify time‐varying variability and co‐variability of climate variables, and use ensemble periodograms to estimate these spectra. By employing a large ensemble of climate change simulations, we show that changes in the variability and relationships of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and regional surface temperatures are disparate on individual timescales. The relation between NAO and surface temperature over high‐latitude lands weakens the most on 20‐year timescales compared to shorter timescales, whereas the relation between NAO and temperature over subtropical North Africa strengthens more on shorter timescales than on 20‐year timescales. These projected evolution and timescale‐dependent changes shed new light on the controlling factors of circulation‐induced regional changes. Accounting for them can lead to the improvement of future regional climate predictions. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale atmospheric circulation modes influence regional climate variability. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a circulation mode closely linked to surface temperatures variations over Europe, Africa, and North America. However, under global warming, changes in regional climate variability and their relation to circulation modes (co‐variability) can evolve differently and disparately depending on timescales. Here, we use the theory of evolutionary spectra to quantify these nonstationary changes and present a novel approach to estimate such changes on various timescales. The estimation approach is based on a large ensemble of climate change simulations. We show that changes in the NAO and regional surface temperature variability and their relationships evolve differently on individual timescales. On 20‐year timescales, co‐variability between NAO and surface temperature weakens over high‐latitude lands surrounding the northern North Atlantic, whereas the corresponding co‐variability on shorter timescales strengthens over subtropical North Africa. These differing evolution and timescale‐dependent changes shed new light on the controlling factors of circulation‐induced regional changes. Taking them into account can lead to the improvement of future regional climate predictions. Key Points: We define piecewise evolutionary spectra (special case of evolutionary spectra) to quantify time‐varying second moments in a warming climateWe introduce ensemble periodograms derived from a large ensemble as consistent estimators of piecewise evolutionary spectraWe find time‐dependent and timescale‐dependent changes in relations between NAO and surface temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and especially air temperature have a direct and high impact on nut trees in arid regions. In this regard, the use of multi-model ensemble projections as more reliable models is important. In this study, based on multi-model ensembles (MME) from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment Middle East North Africa (CORDEX-MENA), the air temperature in RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 pathways in pistachio cultivation areas in Iran was projected. The period 1980 to 2017 was identified as the reference period. Due to the sensitivity of climate change and the existing uncertainties, the hourly temperatures based on the models of chilling hours (CH) and chilling portions (CP) were also used for the reference period. The results of CORDEX simulations for pistachio cultivation areas suggest that the minimum and maximum annual air temperature (MMAT) and growing season temperature (GST) at the end of the current century compared to 1980–2017 as the reference period will increase significantly to 4 °C. The downward trend of winter chill accumulation during the cold season based on observational data will confirm the increase in air temperature in pistachio cultivation areas in Iran. In the output simulation of CORDEX project, the date of flowering pistachio tree for late-maturing varieties by 2080 under representative concentration pathway (RCPs) RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 will occur 16 days and 6 days sooner, respectively. The amount of heat accumulation or growing degree days (GDD) in the future in pistachio cultivation areas will be increased, and deviation from the historical period, based on RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 on average, will occur 3200 and 2600 GDD, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study critically reviews the application, management and challenges of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through a survey of 142 studies. The survey reveals the objectives and methods of MAR in the region. It also shows the technical and socioeconomic challenges that significantly cause MAR failure in MENA countries. The article concludes by presenting a framework to evaluate MAR feasibility and it provides recommendations and guidance for future studies and MAR designs in the MENA region, which is facing the impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents Early to Late-Holocene sedimentary deposits from the Moulouya catchment, the main Mediterranean river basin of Morocco. Within this region, recent studies have focused particularly on marine or lacustrine archives. Studies on fluvial archives are thus important for improving our understanding of palaeoenvironmental responses to Holocene climatic changes at regional and supra-regional scales. Here, we studied alluvial archives from two basins 300 km apart in the mid-Moulouya basin and High Plateaus region located in the rarely studied NW African highlands, which are currently defined by arid and cold climatic conditions. Strong similarities between these deposits in terms of morpho-pedosedimentary and chronostratigraphical evolution demonstrate a regional morphogenic pattern controlled by Holocene climatic changes. Using a multi-proxy approach, we document rapid palaeoenvironmental changes and orbital-scale morphogenic changes. Four particular phases of regional geomorphic stability have been dated to ca. 10800–10500, 10200–9900, 9300, and 8900 cal. BP. Enhanced flooding periods that reflect times of climatic aridification may correlate with Early and Mid-Holocene Rapid Climatic Changes, especially during the 9.2 ka event. Furthermore, the Moulouya alluvial archives record the development of an extensive wetland formation and tufa sedimentation within the alluvial plains between ca. 10.8 to 6-5 cal ka BP. This formation is recognised at a regional scale across the upper and mid-Moulouya catchments, whereas it is missing from other Moroccan fluvial archives. These lasting humid climatic conditions (ca. 10.8–6/5 ka cal. BP.) are consistent with those recorded in the sub-Saharan records during the last African Humid Period (AHP), and suggest a potential linkage between the NW African highlands and the Saharan domain. Hence, we assume that this fluvio-palustrine wetland formation located at 32°–34°N is consistent with the northern archives recording AHP wet conditions. • Early to Mid-Holocene NE Moroccan upstream alluvial deposits are depicted. • The fluvial morphogenesis follows a regional pattern controlled by climatic changes. • New insights into the regional fluvial evolution in NE Morocco are provided. • A wetland formation in upstream sections of the Moulouya basin is evidenced. • The Moulouya wetland formation is consistent with the northern Saharan AHP records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim. We use ecological niche models and environmental stratification of palaeoclimate to reconstruct the changing range of the lion (Panthera leo) during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Location. The modern (early 21st century) range of the lion extends from southern Africa to the western Indian Subcontinent, yet through the 20th century this range has been drastically reduced in extent and become increasingly fragmented as a result of human impacts. Methods. We use Global Environmental Stratification with MaxEnt ecological niche models to map environmental suitability of the lion under current and palaeoclimatic scenarios. By examining modelled lion range in terms of categorical environmental strata, we characterise suitable bioclimatic conditions for the lion in a descriptive manner. Results. Wefind that lion habitat suitability has reduced throughout the Holocene, controlled by pluvial/interpluvial cycles. The aridification of the Sahara 6ka dramatically reduced lion range throughout North Africa. The association of Saharan aridification with the development of pastoralism and the growth of sedentary communities, who practised animal husbandry, would have placed additional and lasting anthropogenic pressures on the lion. Main Conclusions. This research highlights the need to integrate the full effects of the fluctuating vegetation and desiccation of the Sahara into palaeoclimatic models, and provides a starting point for further continental-scale analyses of shifting faunal ranges through North Africa and the Near East during the Holocene. This scale of ecological niche modelling does not explain the current pattern of genetic variation in the lion, and we conclude that narrow but substantial physical barriers, such as rivers, have likely played a major role in population vicariance throughout the Late Pleistocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reversed impacts of the Arctic oscillation (AO) on precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas (SCSA) in October and November during 1979–2014 are investigated. The correlation coefficients between AO and the precipitation in October and November are 0.44 and − 0.31, which are statistically significant at the 99% and 90% confidence levels, respectively. In October (November), the specific humidity exhibits obvious positive (negative) anomalies in the SCSA, and an upward (downward) airflow moving from ground to the upper troposphere (1000–150 hPa) between 10°N and 30°N (10°N and 20°N) is observed with more (less) cloud cover. Moisture budget diagnosis suggests that the precipitation's increasing (decreasing) in October (November) mainly contributed by zonal moisture flux convergence (divergence). Furthermore, the Rossby wave guided by westerlies tends to motivate positive geopotential height in the upper troposphere over approximately 20°–30°N, 40°–80°E in October, which is accompanied by a stronger anticyclone in the Arabian Sea region. However, in November, the wave train propagating from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal is observed in the form of cyclones and anticyclones. Further analysis reveal that the AO in October may increase precipitation through the southern wave train (along the westerly jet stream from North Africa to the Middle East and South China). Moreover, air-sea interactions over the North Pacific might also generate horseshoe-shaped sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies characterized by positive SST in the central subtropical North Pacific surrounded by negative SST, which may affect the precipitation in the SCSA. Ensemble-mean results from CMIP6 historical simulations further confirm these relationships, and the models that can better simulate the observed positive geopotential height in the Arabian Sea present more consistent precipitation's increasing over the SCSA in October. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the relationship between temperature and the coexistence of great tit Parus major and blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus, breeding in 75 study plots across Europe and North Africa. We expected an advance in laying date and a reduction in clutch size during warmer springs as a general response to climate warming and a delay in laying date and a reduction in clutch size during warmer winters due to density‐dependent effects. As expected, as spring temperature increases laying date advances and as winter temperature increases clutch size is reduced in both species. Density of great tit affected the relationship between winter temperature and laying date in great and blue tit. Specifically, as density of great tit increased and temperature in winter increased both species started to reproduce later. Density of blue tit affected the relationship between spring temperature and blue and great tit laying date. Thus, both species start to reproduce earlier with increasing spring temperature as density of blue tit increases, which was not an expected outcome, since we expected that increasing spring temperature should advance laying date, while increasing density should delay it cancelling each other out. Climate warming and its interaction with density affects clutch size of great tits but not of blue tits. As predicted, great tit clutch size is reduced more with density of blue tits as temperature in winter increases. The relationship between spring temperature and density on clutch size of great tits depends on whether the increase is in density of great tit or blue tit. Therefore, an increase in temperature negatively affected the coexistence of blue and great tits differently in both species. Thus, blue tit clutch size was unaffected by the interaction effect of density with temperature, while great tit clutch size was affected in multiple ways by these interactions terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a potential approach to prevent dangerous climate change, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) aims to reflect some incoming solar radiation into space and reduce temperatures. Previous modeling studies suggest that storm tracks will shift poleward due to the increases in the greenhouse gas concentrations. As a consequence of this, the Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean regions will most likely experience a strong precipitation decrease, increasing the pressure on the region's vulnerable environment. Our results from an Earth system model indicate that SAG can partially offset the poleward shift of the storm tracks, thus potentially soothing the environmental and water stresses of the region. However, other climatic side effects may occur, hence still motivating ambitious mitigation action to reduce emissions and impacts of global warming. The results presented may have practical implications for ongoing climate policy debates in the region. Plain Language Summary: As a potential approach to prevent dangerous climate change, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering aims to reflect a small percentage of incoming solar radiation into space to reduce the global mean temperature. However, regional impacts are not clear, especially in the global south. This article provides the first analysis of changes in the storm‐tracks from stratospheric aerosol geoengineering in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The results of our study indicate that the poleward shift of the storm‐tracks due to increases in the greenhouse gas concentration could be partially offset, and thus potentially sooth some of the environmental, in particular water, stresses. However, other side effects may occur, motivating for an ambitious mitigation pathway still. Key Points: The response of storm tracks in the Middle East and North Africa to stratospheric geoengineering is investigatedSimulations show that effects of global warming may be partially offset, through a reduced northwards shift of storm tracks. However, it involves side effect, not present in the global warming scenarioSome of the environmental and water stresses of the region may be alleviated by stratospheric geoengineering [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is an important threat to agriculture and food security. The trade of climate-smart goods (CSGs) develops climate-friendly technologies, which could reduce the negative effects of climate change. This article aims to investigate the determinants of CSGs trade in some Middle East and North Africa countries. For this purpose, spatial panel models were estimated during the 2002 to 2016 period. Our findings showed that there are spatial effects in CSGs trade, indicating CSGs trade in one country affects neighboring countries' trade. It's recommended that governments implement appropriate strategies, including rail, road, and air network improvements, to reduce transaction costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climatic variation and geologic change both play significant roles in shaping species distributions, thus affecting their evolutionary history. In Sahara-Sahel, climatic oscillations shifted the desert extent during the Pliocene-Pleistocene interval, triggering the diversification of several species. Here, we investigated how these biogeographical and ecological events have shaped patterns of genetic diversity and divergence in African Jerboas, desert specialist rodents. We focused on two sister and cryptic species, Jaculus jaculus and J. hirtipes, where we (1) evaluated their genetic differentiation, (2) reconstructed their evolutionary and demographic history; (3) tested the level of gene flow between them, and (4) assessed their ecological niche divergence. Results: The analyses based on 231 individuals sampled throughout North Africa, 8 sequence fragments (one mitochondrial and seven single copy nuclear DNA, including two candidate genes for fur coloration: MC1R and Agouti), 6 microsatellite markers and ecological modelling revealed: (1) two distinct genetic lineages with overlapping distributions, in agreement with their classification as different species, J. jaculus and J. hirtipes, with (2) low levels of gene flow and strong species divergence, (3) high haplotypic diversity without evident geographic structure within species, and (4) a low level of large-scale ecological divergence between the two taxa, suggesting species micro-habitat specialization. Conclusions: Overall, our results suggest a speciation event that occurred during the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition. The contemporary distribution of genetic variation suggests ongoing population expansions. Despite the largely overlapping distributions at a macrogeographic scale, our genetic results suggest that the two species remain reproductively isolated, as only negligible levels of gene flow were observed. The overlapping ecological preferences at a macro-geographic scale and the ecological divergence at the micro-habitat scale suggest that local adaptation may have played a crucial role in the speciation process of these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cenozoic climate of tropical South America was fundamental to the development of its biota, the most biodiverse on Earth. No previous studies have explicitly addressed how the very different atmospheric composition and Atlantic geometry during the early Eocene (approximately 55 million years ago) may have affected South American climate. At that time, the Atlantic Ocean was approximately half of its current width and the CO2 concentration of Earth's atmosphere ranged from ~550 to ~1500 ppm or even higher. Climate model simulations were performed to examine the effects of these major state changes on the climate of tropical South America. Reducing the width of the Atlantic by approximately half produces significant drying relative to modern climate. Drying is only partly offset by an enhancement of precipitation due to the higher CO2 of the early Eocene. The main mechanism for drier conditions is simple. Low-level air crosses the tropical Atlantic from North Africa in much less time for a narrower Atlantic (2 days) than for the modern Atlantic (~6 days); as a result, much less water is evaporated into the air and thus there is far lower moisture imported to the continent in the Eocene simulation than in the modern control. The progressive wetting (during the mid- to late Cenozoic) of the Amazon due to the widening Atlantic and the rising Andes, only partly offset by decreasing CO2 values, may have been partly responsible for the accumulating biodiversity of this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]