1. Novel bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulants, including direct oral anticoagulants
- Author
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Stefan Osswald, Luise Adam, Jacques Donzé, Giorgio Moschovitis, Stefanie Aeschbacher, Matthias Schwenkglenks, Cinzia Del‐Giovane, Jürg H. Beer, Drahomir Aujesky, Richard Kobza, Carmen Floriani, Leo H. Bonati, Michael Kühne, Dipen Shah, Urs Fischer, Laurent Roten, David Conen, Nicolas Rodondi, Jürg Schläpfer, Lamprini Syrogiannouli, Christine Baumgartner, Martin Feller, Daniel Segna, Peter Amman, University of Zurich, and Rodondi, Nicolas
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,2720 Hematology ,Administration, Oral ,610 Medicine & health ,Hemorrhage ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,SWISS-AF ,direct oral anticoagulants ,atrial fibrillation ,bleeding risk ,oral anticoagulants ,11459 Center for Molecular Cardiology ,Cohort Studies ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,Atrial Fibrillation ,medicine ,Humans ,In patient ,Prospective Studies ,Prospective cohort study ,Aged ,Aged, 80 and over ,Framingham Risk Score ,Anticoagulants ,Cancer ,Atrial fibrillation ,10060 Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI) ,Hematology ,medicine.disease ,Confidence interval ,3. Good health ,Stroke ,Brier score ,570 Life sciences ,biology ,Female ,Switzerland ,Cohort study - Abstract
OBJECTIVE Balancing bleeding risk and stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common challenge. Though several bleeding risk scores exist, most have not included patients on direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). We aimed at developing a novel bleeding risk score for patients with AF on oral anticoagulants (OAC) including both vitamin K antagonists (VKA) and DOACs. METHODS We included patients with AF on OACs from a prospective multicenter cohort study in Switzerland (SWISS-AF). The outcome was time to first bleeding. Bleeding events were defined as major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding. We used backward elimination to identify bleeding risk variables. We derived the score using a point score system based on the β-coefficients from the multivariable model. We used the Brier score for model calibration ( 75 years, history of cancer, prior major hemorrhage, and arterial hypertension remained in the final prediction model. The Brier score was 0.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.19-0.27), the c-statistic at 12 months was 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.80). CONCLUSION In this prospective cohort study of AF patients and predominantly DOAC users, we successfully derived a bleeding risk prediction model with good calibration and discrimination.
- Published
- 2021
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