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Edogawa Mill is located in the southeastern part of Metropolitan Tokyo along the Edogawa River which divides the border of Tokyo and Chiba Prefecture. Edogawa River is very significant for Edogawa Mill because its water is used not only as industrial water for Edogawa Mill, but is also used as a means of transportation of major materials such as pulp, oil and so on.The main equipment in Edogawa Mill are a 60 t/d CGP plant, 2 fourdrinier machines for manufacturing 120 tons per day of printing paper, and 1 high-speed ultraformer machine for manufacturing 270 tons of paperboard per day.The mill area has about 157, 000 m2 and a corrugating plant and a Central Research Laboratory are also located within its premises. There are a total of 471 employees working there.Since the mill is located in the urban area, it is advantageous for procurement of materials and for transportation of products, however, on the other hand, strict control for the protection of the environment is required. Therfore, for the purpose of keeping good harmony with the community, we have positively invested in facilities for pollution abatement during the past several years.

Marusumi Paper Mfg. Co., Ltd. is located in the city of Kawanoe, which is so famous in Japan as one of massive paper-production centers.The city is in the eastern end of Ehime Prefecture, and her northern shore is washed by calm waves of the Seto Island Sea.And the city increases her significant weight upon economical activities of western part of our country, as her location being close to each industrial centers such as Osaka, Hiroshima, Kyushu and their satellites.

Each of the main land-masses of the world is largely divided piecemeal into catchment areas of drainage systems supplying major rivers, the example of Africa being illustrated in Fig. i. A river may be defined as a mixture of water, rock detritus, and other materials, flowing in a channel having pro-gressively lower levels. Strahler (1951) quotes from John Playfair’s Law (published in 1802): ‘Every river appears to consist of a main trunk, fed from a variety of branches, each running in a valley proportioned to its size, and all of them together forming a system of valleys connecting with one another, and having such a nice adjustment of their declivities that none of them joins the principal valley either on too high or too low a level; a circumstance which would be infinitely improbable if each of these valleys were not the work of the stream which flows in it.’ This statement comprises three main points: (1) valleys are proportioned in size to streams flowing in them, (2) stream junctions are accordant in level, and (3) therefore, valleys are carved by streams flowing in them.

As part of the Springer Nature Content Sharing Initiative, you can publicly share full-text access to a view-only version of your paper by using thefollowing SharedIt link: https://rdcu.be/cCd8u; International audience; The study of groundwater resources using pumping test data is usually carried out with the Theis solution, which enables the hydraulic parameters of porous aquifers such as the transmissivity and storage coefficient, to be estimated from the water-level drawdown. However, the data fitting can fail and provide only an indication that the pumped aquifer has a complex structure. Here, a diagnostic plot on log-derivative drawdown is used to identify flow regimes and thus aquifer heterogeneities, leading to plausible conceptual models. Nevertheless, the diagnostic plot is insufficient and must be accompanied by further modelling because of the nonuniqueness of the drawdown log-derivative signal. The proposed approach is applied to an alluvial plain in France, known to be complex because the deposition processes change over time, resulting in channel belts limited by low-permeability deposits in the floodplain or three-dimensional (3D) interconnected structures. Six analytical models were used to simulate drawdown and its derivatives during a three-day transient pumping test. The diagnostic performed on the pumping well showed that four conceptual models, with highly contrasted hydrodynamic behaviours, may correspond to the diagnostic. The joint use of pumping-well and observation-well data allowed the only appropriate model to be identified—a dual-permeability model characterizing a multilayer aquifer. The conceptual model matched the geological observations in boreholes and corroborates the fluvial sequence stratigraphy of the alluvial plain. The pumping test used here is a tool to explore the 3D architecture of the fluvial reservoir at the scale of the depositional sequence in the floodplain.; El estudio de los recursos hídricos subterráneos a partir de los datos de los ensayos de bombeo suele realizarse con la solución de Theis, que permite estimar los parámetros hidráulicos de los acuíferos porosos, como la transmisividad y el coeficiente de almacenamiento, a partir del descenso del nivel del agua. Sin embargo, el ajuste de los datos puede no funcionar y proporcionar sólo una indicación de que el acuífero bombeado tiene una estructura compleja. En este caso, se utiliza un diagrama de diagnóstico de la depresión logarítmica derivada para identificar los regímenes de flujo y, por tanto, las heterogeneidades del acuífero, lo que conduce a modelos conceptuales plausibles. Sin embargo, el diagrama de diagnóstico es insuficiente y debe ir acompañado de una modelización adicional debido a la no unicidad de la señal log-derivada de la depresión. El enfoque propuesto se aplica a una llanura aluvial en Francia, conocida por su complejidad debido a que los procesos de deposición cambian con el tiempo, dando lugar a franjas de canales limitadas por depósitos de baja permeabilidad en la llanura de inundación o a estructuras tridimensionales (3D) interconectadas. Se utilizaron seis modelos analíticos para simular la depresión y sus derivados durante un ensayo de bombeo transitorio de tres días. El diagnóstico realizado en el pozo de bombeo mostró que pueden corresponder cuatro modelos conceptuales, con comportamientos hidrodinámicos muy contrastados. La utilización conjunta de los datos del pozo de bombeo y del pozo de observación permitió identificar el único modelo apropiado: un modelo de doble permeabilidad que caracteriza un acuífero multicapa. El modelo conceptual coincidió con las observaciones geológicas en pozos de sondeo y corrobora la estratigrafía de la secuencia fluvial de la llanura aluvial. El ensayo de bombeo utilizado aquí es una herramienta para explorar la arquitectura 3D del depósito fluvial a escala de la secuencia deposicional en la llanura aluvial.; L’étude des ressources en eau souterraine à partir de données d’essais de pompage est généralement réalisée avec la solution de Theis, qui permet d’estimer les paramètres hydrauliques des aquifères poreux, tels que la transmissivité et le coefficient d’emmagasinement, à partir du rabattement du niveau d’eau. Cependant, l’ajustement des données peut échouer et fournir seulement une indication relative à la complexité de la structure de l’aquifère sollicité par pompage. Ici, un tracé de diagnostic de la dérivé du rabattement selon une échelle logarithmique est utilisé pour identifier les régimes d’écoulement et donc les hétérogénéités de l’aquifère, conduisant à des modèles conceptuels plausibles. Néanmoins, le diagnostic de puits est insuffisant et doit être accompagné d’une modélisation plus poussée en raison de la non-unicité du signal de la dérivée du rabattement selon une échelle logarithmique. L’approche proposée est appliquée à une plaine alluviale en France, connue pour être complexe car les processus de dépôt ont évolué au cours du temps, donnant lieu à des zones de chenaux limitées par des dépôts peu perméables dans la plaine d’inondation ou à des structures tridimensionnelles (3D) interconnectées. Six modèles analytiques ont été utilisés pour simuler le rabattement et ses dérivés pendant un essai de pompage transitoire de trois jours. Le diagnostic réalisé sur le puits de pompage a montré que quatre modèles conceptuels, aux comportements hydrodynamiques très contrastés, peuvent correspondre au diagnostic. L’utilisation conjointe des données des puits de pompage et des puits d’observation a permis d’identifier le seul modèle approprié - un modèle à double perméabilité caractérisant un aquifère multicouche. Le modèle conceptuel correspond aux observations géologiques dans les forages et corrobore la stratigraphie séquentielle fluviale de la plaine alluviale. L’essai de pompage utilisé ici est un outil permettant d’explorer l’architecture 3D du réservoir fluvial à l’échelle de la séquence de dépôt dans la plaine d’inondation.; O estudo dos recursos hídricos subterrâneos utilizando dados de teste de vazão é comumente resolvido por meio da equação de Theis, o que permite que os parâmetros hidráulicos dos aquíferos porosos, como a transmissividade e o coeficiente de armazenamento, possam ser estimados a partir do rebaixamento do nível d’água. Porém, o ajuste dos dados pode falhar, indicando apenas que o aquífero bombeado apresenta uma estrutura complexa. Aqui, um gráfico de diagnóstico da derivada logarítmica do rebaixamento é usado para identificar o regime de fluxo e, portanto, a heterogeneidade do aquífero, levando a modelos conceituais plausíveis. Ainda assim, o gráfico de diagnóstico é insuficiente e deve ser acompanhado de mais modelos, devido ao sinal não único da derivada logarítmica do rebaixamento. A abordagem proposta foi utilizada em uma planície aluvial na França, conhecida por ser complexa, pois os processos de deposição mudam com o tempo, o que resulta em um cinturão de canais limitados por depósitos de baixa permeabilidade na planície de inundação ou por estruturas tridimensionais (3D) interconectadas. Seis modelos analíticos foram utilizados para simular o rebaixamento, e suas funções derivadas, durante um teste de bombeamento transiente de 3 dias. O diagnóstico simulado para o poço de bombeamento mostrou que quatro modelos conceituais, cada um com comportamento hidrodinâmico contrastante, podem corresponder ao diagnóstico. A junção dos dados do poço de bombeamento e dos dados de poço de observação permitiu a identificação do único modelo apropriado – um modelo de permeabilidade dual caracterizando um aquífero multicamadas. O modelo conceitual coincide com as observações da geologia dos poços e corrobora com a sequência estratigráfica fluvial da planície aluvial. O teste de bombeamento utilizado é uma ferramenta para explorar a arquitetura 3D do reservatório fluvial na escala da sequência deposicional da planície de inundação.; 利用抽水试验数据研究地下水资源通常采用 Theis 解, 它可以根据水位降深估算多孔介质含水层的水力参数, 如传导系数和蓄水系数。然而, 数据拟合可能会失败, 并且只能表明抽水含水层具有复杂的结构。在这里, 对数导数降深的诊断图用于识别流态, 从而识别含水层的异质性, 由此可形成合理的概念模型。然而, 由于降深对数导数信号的非唯一性, 仅用诊断图是不够的, 必须再建模分析。所提出的方法应用于法国众所周知复杂的冲积平原, 由于沉积过程随时间变化, 导致河岸带受到漫滩中低渗透性沉积物或三维 (3D) 互连结构的影响。在为期三天的非稳定抽水测试期间, 六个解析解模型用于模拟降深及其导数。抽水井上进行的诊断表明, 具有高度异质的水动力行为的四个概念模型可能与诊断相符。抽水井和观测井数据的联合使用可确定唯一合适的模型, 即表征多层含水层的双渗透模型。概念模型与钻孔中的地质观察相匹配, 并证实了冲积平原的河流相地层。此处使用的抽水试验是在漫滩沉积相尺度上探索冲积相储层 3D 结构的工具。

International audience; Ambient sound scenes typically comprise multiple short events occurring on top of a somewhat stationary background. We consider the task of separating these events from the background, which we call foreground-background ambient sound scene separation. We propose a deep learning-based separation framework with a suitable feature normaliza-tion scheme and an optional auxiliary network capturing the background statistics, and we investigate its ability to handle the great variety of sound classes encountered in ambient sound scenes, which have often not been seen in training. To do so, we create single-channel foreground-background mixtures using isolated sounds from the DESED and Audioset datasets, and we conduct extensive experiments with mixtures of seen or unseen sound classes at various signal-to-noise ratios. Our experimental findings demonstrate the generalization ability of the proposed approach.

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

This paper studies the effect of transportation networks on spatial inequality within metropolitan areas. It uses a spatial equilibrium model featuring nonhomotheticities and worker heterogeneity, allowing to capture rich patterns of workers sorting on commuting costs and amenities. The model is calibrated for the Paris urban area. Counterfactual simulations study the effects of a) the Regional Express Rail and b) restricting car use in the city center. Despite a strong contribution to suburbanization and reducing welfare inequality, the public transport network plays no role in reducing income segregation. The effects of banning cars depends critically on the response of residential amenities in the city. If it is low enough, it reduces income disparities between Paris and its suburbs at the cost of a substantial welfare loss. If it is high enough, the policy creates welfare gains but steepens the income gradient.

International audience; Pore water and solid phase geochemical profiles of sediment cores collected along two transects on the western and eastern sides of the Mississippi River mouth in the northern Gulf of Mexico were incorporated into a reactive transport model to determine the role of manganese and iron in the remineralization of carbon. Reactive transport model calculations indicate that sedimentation rates control the intensity of anaerobic carbon remineralization and select for the dominant anaerobic carbon remineralization pathways. Although sulfate reduction dominates the shelf station (65 m water depth), denitrification and microbial manganese reduction appear equally significant anaerobic respiration processes along the continental slope the closest to the Mississippi River, whereas microbial iron reduction does not represent an important process in these sediments. These findings suggest that the differential kinetics of manganese and iron redox transformations influence carbon remineralization processes on the continental slope. The fast kinetics of Fe2+ oxidation near the sediment-water interface and high sedimentation rates maintain Fe under the form of Fe(III) oxides and thermodynamically prevent sulfate reduction from dominating carbon remineralization processes on the slope, whereas the much slower Mn2+ oxygenation kinetics allows diffusion of Mn2+ across the sediment-water interface of the shelf station closest to the river mouth. Exposure to oxygenated bottom waters and entrainment within mobile muds typical of deltaic sediments during high riverine discharge likely promote the formation and downslope transport of Mn(III/IV) oxides within the nepheloid layer. This phenomenon appears to form a manganese ‘conveyor belt’ that selectively enriches Mn(III/IV) oxides relative to Fe(III) oxides in the deep sediment. In contrast, the intensity of anaerobic carbon remineralization processes along the eastern continental slope the farthest from the Mississippi River plume is much lower due to the low organic and lithogenic inputs, and denitrification dominates anaerobic respiration. Overall, these findings suggest that manganese cycling and its role in carbon remineralization processes in continental slope sediments exposed to large riverine inputs may be more important than previously considered.

A complèter : pagination et WOS; International audience; Large wood (LW, or pieces of dead wood longer than 1 m and thicker than 10 cm in diameter) is a key element in forested streams, but its abundance has decreased worldwide as a result of snagging and clearing of riparian forests. Therefore, many restoration projects introduce LW into stream channels to enhance geomorphology, biotic communities, and ecosystem functioning. Because LW enhances the retention of organic matter and sediments, its restoration can reduce siltation in receiving reservoirs, although so far little information on this subject is available. We studied the effects of restoring the natural loading of LW in four streams in the Aiako Harria Natural Park (the Basque Country, Spain) in pool abundance, channel form, and storage of organic matter and sediments. In all reaches log jams induced the formation of new geomorphic features and changes in physical habitat, especially an increase in the number and size of pools and in the formation of gravel bars and organic deposits. The storage of organic matter increased 5- to 88-fold and streambed level rose 7 ± 4 to 21 ± 4 cm on average, resulting in the storage of 35.2 ± 19.7 to 711 ± 375 m3 (733–1400 m3 ha− 1 y− 1) of sediment per reach. Extrapolation of these results to the entire drainage basin suggests that basinwide restoration of LW loading would enhance the retention potential of stream channels by 66,817 ± 27,804 m3 (1075 m3 ha− 1 y− 1) of sediment and by 361 t (5.32 T ha− 1 y− 1) of organic matter, which represents 60% of the estimated annual inputs of sediments to the downstream Añarbe Reservoir and almost twice as much as the annual input of organic matter to the entire river network. Therefore, basinwide restoration of LW loading is a potentially important tool to manage catchments that feed reservoirs, where retention of sediments and organic matter can be considered important ecosystem services as they reduce reservoir siltation.

International audience; The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual model of saline intrusion within coastal karst aquifers by analyzing Rainfall–Discharge–Salinity data and to assess freshwater resources using a lumped modeling approach. In a first step, we analyzed 4 years of data (rainfall, discharge and salinity times series) ofthe Port-Miou brackish submarine spring in South France (400 km2). A conceptual model of the aquifer was then designed to differentiate a deep brackish reservoir and a shallower fresh one. Salinity variations at the spring are assumed to be controlled mainly by dilution originating from the fresh water in the shallower reservoir. In a second step, a lumped modeling approach was developed based on the conceptual model to simulate discharge as well as salinity over time. We proposed a reservoir-model to take into account slow and fast components in the shallower part of the aquifer and a saline intrusion in the deeper one. This Rainfall–Discharge–Salinity model was calibrated and validated for two periods of 1.5 years at a daily time step and was also tested to reproduce a multi-annual evolution of the available discharge and salinity time series. Good simulation results were obtained to reproduce water and mass budgets as well as discharge and salinity dynamics during several hydrological cycles. The simultaneous modeling of hydrodynamics and quality data showed the robustness of the model in addition to its easy implementation. Our results led us to propose a new type of seawater mixing mechanism for brackish springs: the dilution type, in addition to the well-known Ventury suction and Head balance types. The application of the lumped model on the Port-Miou brackish spring validated the hydrogeological processes deduced from experimental data, given an initial quantification of the freshwater resources available in such complex brackish karstic aquifers.

International audience; This study focuses on linear anthropogenic landforms of decametric width on cultivated hillslopes and their relations to soil thickness variability. The 16 ha study area shows a rolling topography supported by Cretaceous chalk of the SW Parisian Basin, France. Two types of landforms were identified: lynchets, similar to those described as soil terraces occurring on downslope field parts in other contexts, and undulations, linear, convex landforms that cut across fields. Accurate DEM construction and a detailed soil thickness survey were performed all over the study area. Soil samples were classified considering their location on specific types of anthropogenic landforms. The classification tree (CT) method was applied to assess whether lynchets and undulations can be discriminated through morphometric attributes (slope, curvature, profile curvature and planform curvature) and soil thickness (CTsoil) or through morphometric attributes only (CTtopo). The CT application establishes predictive classification models to map the spatial distribution of lynchets and undulations over the whole study area. The validation results of the CTsoil and CTtopo applications show model efficiencies of 83% and 67%, respectively. Both models performed well for lynchets. Errors arise mainly from difficulties in unequivocally discriminating gently convex undulations and undifferentiated surfaces, especially when soil thickness is not accounted for. Mean values of soil thickness are 1.08, 0.62 and 0.45 m in lynchets, undulations and undifferentiated areas, respectively. The general shape of the thickened soil is characteristic to each type of anthropogenic landform. Multi-temporal mapping of field border networks shows that undulations are linked to borders that were removed during the latest land consolidation. Lynchets are associated with current field borders. Lynchets and undulations, which cover 39% of the study area, define topographic indicators of human-induced soil accumulations. The method involves perspectives for efficiently mapping and quantifying the anthropogenically modified spatial variability of soil thickness on agricultural hillsides.

Submitted by Guilherme Lemeszenski (guilherme@nead.unesp.br) on 2013-08-22T18:49:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2013-08-22T18:49:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-01 Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-30T19:40:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) S0100-67622008000500016.pdf.txt: 44089 bytes, checksum: 318e241c4627cb5b18d8cc4414c20442 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-01 Submitted by Vitor Silverio Rodrigues (vitorsrodrigues@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2014-05-20T15:10:40Z No. of bitstreams: 2 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) S0100-67622008000500016.pdf.txt: 44089 bytes, checksum: 318e241c4627cb5b18d8cc4414c20442 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-20T15:10:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 S0100-67622008000500016.pdf: 515457 bytes, checksum: 160fb1dd1fe4c7b59bffc7db372f0216 (MD5) S0100-67622008000500016.pdf.txt: 44089 bytes, checksum: 318e241c4627cb5b18d8cc4414c20442 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-01 O trabalho objetivou descrever e avaliar a estrutura da regeneração de espécies arbóreas em dois remanescentes naturais e em três áreas reflorestadas com espécies nativas e em um povoamento de Eucalyptus robusta, situados em área de várzea do rio Mogi-Guaçu, Luiz Antônio, SP (21º31'S e 47º55'W). Foram amostradas 40 subparcelas de 2 m² em cada remanescente natural e sub-bosque de eucalipto e 60 subparcelas de 3,5 m² em cada área reflorestada. Foram amostrados todos os indivíduos arbóreos de regeneração com altura > a 10 cm e diâmetro do caule até a altura do peito (DAP) < 5,0 cm e analisados separadamente, em quatro classes de altura, a diversidade florística, a regeneração natural (Rn%), o valor de importância (VI) e a similaridade da regeneração com indivíduos de DAP > 5 cm. Foram identificados 1.990 indivíduos, pertencentes a 24 famílias, 46 gêneros e 51 espécies. Cabralea canjerana, Psidium cattleyanum, Nectandra megapotamica, Acacia polyphylla e Syzygium cumini estavam entre as espécies mais representadas nas quatro categorias de tamanho. O reflorestamento com espécies nativas em áreas degradadas da várzea do rio Mogi-Guaçu promoveu a regeneração natural com biodiversidade superior aos remanescentes naturais de florestas ciliares sob efeito de borda e contribuiu para com o processo de restauração de ecossistemas florestais. O povoamento de Eucalyptus robusta com cerca de 20 anos de idade favoreceu a regeneração de espécies climácicas e secundárias. The phytosociology of the woody stratum of both young regenerating individuals and seed banks are quality indicators of heterogeneous reforestations. The objetive of this research was to evaluate the structure of regeneration of the arboreal species in two natural remainders, in three areas reforested with native species and in a Eucalyptus robusta settlement located in a floodplain of Mogi-Guaçu river in Luiz Antônio County (21°31´S and 47°55´W), São Paulo, Brazil. Sampling was collected in 40 subplots of 2 m²in of each natural remainder and each eucalyptus sub-forest, as well as 60 subplots of 3.5 m²in each area reforested. All individuals with height > 10 cm and diameter at breast height (DBH) < 5.0 cm were measured and analyzed separately in four height classes according to floristic diversity, similarity, density, frequency, dominance, importance value and natural regeneration. A total of 2,010 individuals were identified, belonging to 24 families, 46 genera and 51 species. The species with greater importance values were Cabralea canjerana, Psidium cattleyanum, Nectandra megapotamica, Acacia polyphylla and Syzygium cumini, well represented in the four height classes. Reforestation with native species in a degraded Mogi-Guaçu River floodplain promoted natural regeneration with more biodiversity than in natural remainders submitted to border effect, and contributed to the forest ecosystem restoration process. The 20-year-old Eucalyptus robusta plantation promoted the regeneration of climax and secondary species. Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG) Departamento de Engenharia Florestal Universidade Estadual Paulista Departamento de Produção Vegetal International Paper do Brasil Setor de Pesquisa e Gestão Ambiental Universidade Estadual Paulista Departamento de Produção Vegetal

We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century.