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Real estate price prediction takes an important role in the economy that can drive up and down the stock prices and even generate disruptive economic events. Many researchers have tried to understand the pricing mechanism with machine learning techniques such as support vector machine, neural network, random forest, and AdaBoost. The boundary problem, on the other hand, makes the pricing scheme more complicated, and this trend is accelerated especially in the situation of population decline in Japan. In this paper, we discuss how we could approach the boundary problem in real estate prediction. We propose a new comprehensive inference model extending and adapting XGBoost to the domain that has the boundary conditions problem by utilizing the distance between the instances in the domain data set to make the layers of bumpy boundaries smooth for more accurate predictions and robustness against the domain data set. The experiments result showed our proposed method performed well on both hypothetical data sets and actual real estate price data. © 2022 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-core investments are gaining traction amongst institutional investors due to the shifting preference towards investment vehicles that position higher on the risk–return curve. Non-listed value-add real estate funds in Japan are one such vehicle. This research develops a comprehensive bespoke benchmark total return index using the ANREV database to reflect the performance of Japan-focussed non-listed value-add real estate funds. We compare the performance of such funds with that of other asset classes and perform portfolio and regression analyses. We conclude that there are several advantages to investing in those funds, including: (1) strong absolute total return performance, (2) competitive risk-adjusted performance, and (3) significant portfolio diversification potential in a mixed-asset portfolio context. The strategic implications for real estate investors are also assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite several attempts to compare and examine the predictive accuracy of real estate sales and rent prices between the regression‐based and neural‐network (NN)‐based approaches, the results are largely mixed. Prior study limitations include a small sample size and a disregard for spatial dependence, which is an essential characteristic of real estate properties. Hence, this study aims to add new empirical evidence to the literature on comparing regression‐based with NN‐based rent price prediction models through sophistications by (1) examining different and relatively large‐scale sample sizes (n = 104, 105, 106), and (2) considering the spatial dependence of either the application of nearest neighbor Gaussian processes (NNGP) or the latitude‐longitude coordinate function (in the case of a deep neural network [DNN]). A case study of apartment rent prices in Japan shows that, given an increase in sample size, the out‐of‐sample predictive accuracies of the DNN approaches and that of NNGP are nearly equal in the order of n = 106. However, the DNN may have higher predictive accuracy than the NNGP for both higher‐ and lower‐end properties whose rent prices deviate from the median. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a hedonic regression approach, this research aims to identify what factors affected land price fluctuations in Fukushima Prefecture following the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident in 2011. In this paper, taking a long-term perspective, the analysis focuses on Iwaki City in Fukushima, where the real estate market behaved unexpectedly following the two catastrophic events, and land price fluctuation rates were rising abnormally. Results based on analysis of data for eight-year indicate the following: The impact of radiation air dose rate and distance from the nuclear power plant on land price fluctuation rate changed significantly from the fourth year after the disaster. Being located in a reconstruction base area had a negative impact on land price fluctuation rate, while access to sewers and city gas had a positive impact. It appears that the stigma associated with the accident had a little disappeared after approximately four years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the largest real estate developers in Japan, Mitsubishi Real Estate Co., Ltd. has been going through a series of transformation initiatives in talent operations and organizational architecture. This paper illustrates the organizational efforts behind the corporate initiatives of developing a learning culture sustained by cognitive technology across the business. Furthermore, the authors have analyzed the organizational impact of various initiatives geared at enhancing organizational agility at Mitsubishi Real Estate Co., Ltd. during the Covid-19 pandemic in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides new empirical evidence on housing bubble timing, volatility spillover, and bubble contagion between Japan and its economic partners, namely, the United States, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom. First, we apply a generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test to the quarterly price-to-rent ratio from 1970Q1 to 2018Q4 to detect explosive behaviors in housing prices. Second, we analyze the volatility spillover in housing prices between Japan and its economic partners using the multivariate time-varying DCC-GARCH model. Third, we assess bubble contagion by estimating a non-parametric model of bubble migration with time-varying coefficients. We document two historical bubble episodes from 1970 to 2018 in Japan's housing market. Moreover, we find evidence of volatility spillover effects and bubble contagion between Japan's real estate market and its most important economic partners during several periods. In this context of market integration, countries need to develop coordinated real estate policies to address the risk of global real estate bubbles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of real estate prices on bank risk-taking using a sample of 133 commercial banks in Japan from 2007 to 2016. Having controlled for other bank-risk determinants, we find that house price growth, house price deviation, and its cyclicality have significant positive (negative) impacts on bank risk-taking (stability). This finding is robust to using different bank risk measures and various econometric methods. Moreover, rising property prices decrease bank stability mainly by weakening bank capitalization and increasing banks' volatility of returns. In addition, we find that the adverse effect of rising house prices on the stability of a bank becomes more pronounced when house prices rise abnormally and when the market structure reflects a monopoly. Our results also indicate that increasing house prices exacerbate the destructive effects of abnormal credit growth on bank stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The tendency of homebound is one of the biggest concerns for older adults' health. • Supportive environments for going out have received less attention than walkable environments. • This study focuses on the relations between older adults' going-out frequency and land price. • Older adults' going-out frequency has negative relations with land price of neighbourhoods. • Positive relations of neighbourhood factors might be underestimated without land price. The aim of this study is to identify the potency of land price as a general indicator of the homebound tendency of neighbourhoods. For this purpose, we focus on the associations between land price and older adults' going-out frequency, while considering the similarities and differences from factors associated with walkability. The study targets are 19,270 individuals living in the Tokyo metropolitan area who are aged 65 years or older who are not certified as needing public long-term care insurance. This study uses a two-step procedure: a) the land price of each neighbourhood is estimated using rent price data from 2010 to 2019 collected by an official Japanese realtor organization; b) the associations between older adults' goingout frequency, according to the 2016 Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, and the estimated land price of their neighbourhoods is identified using multilevel analysis. The results indicate that land price has strong negative associations with older adults' going-out frequency. Associations between land price or other walkability-associated factors, such as population density, ratio of commercial area, and proximity to the nearest train station, only appear when these factors and land price are included within the same model. The results suggest that, when inspecting homebound tendency in some neighbourhoods, factors relating to the built environment must be considered alongside land prices. Furthermore, the homebound status of older adults is a pressing challenge, especially in neighbourhoods with high land prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since real estate is heterogeneous and not all its quality attributes are observable, the repeat sales model pioneered by Bailey et al. (1963) has become one of the standard methods to estimate a constant-quality price index. The model, however, fails to adjust for depreciation, as age and time between sales have an exact linear relationship. This paper proposes a new method to estimate an age-adjusted repeat sales index by decomposing property value into land and structure components. As depreciation is more relevant to the structure than land, the property’s depreciation rate should depend on the relative size of land and structure. The larger the land component, the lower the depreciation rate of the property. This new method is applied to property transactions in Hong Kong and Tokyo. Hong Kong is shown to have a higher depreciation rate based on a fixed structure-to-property value ratio, while the resulting age adjustment is larger in Tokyo because its land value has shrunken over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature has shown that an increase in housing wealth, driven by unexpected shocks to house prices, exerts a positive effect on the birthrates of homeowners. According to canonical models, a decrease in housing wealth has a symmetric negative impact on the fertility behavior of households. That is, housing gains and losses of the same size have identical quantitative effects on fertility. In comparison, the reference-dependent preferences in prospect theory suggest that people care more about housing losses than equivalent gains, leading to an asymmetric effect of housing wealth on the fertility decision. We propose a theoretical model where household utility depends on both childbirth and housing wealth. In this model, the utility from housing wealth is reference dependent in the sense that we assume the housing value in the previous year is the reference. The theoretical model suggests that a decrease in housing wealth would have a larger impact on the probability of childbirth than an equivalent increase. We test this theoretical prediction using longitudinal data on Japanese households. Consistent with the theoretical prediction, our empirical results show that the fertility responses of homeowners are substantially larger for housing losses than equivalent gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it formulates a model to explore the criteria for making decisions on sale-leaseback (SLB) actions, which can be an alternative to off-balance-sheet financing. The theoretical findings show that the knowledge of the buyer/lessor of low-cost property management is a primary factor in favor of SLB, which is in line with previous studies. Secondly, it quantifies this factor to explore the possible application of SLB schemes to Japanese public real estate (PRE) markets. The validity of this quantification method is also shown by using data from a tax-exempt Japanese PRE portfolio. The empirical findings of ANOVA and multiple comparison tests suggest that if we only have cost information and know the age of the buildings on the property, we can make decisions with regard to SLB actions; these findings reveal an institutional environment that is unique to Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We reveal copper stock and waste flow in Japan by final product and end-use sector. • In-use total copper stock in Japan already peaked and decreased until 2015. • Household, repair service, and infrastructure are significant for copper recycling. • Per capita copper stock for some end-use sectors decreased with higher GDP level. Analysis of in-use metal stocks provides information on the potential quantity and quality of the generated waste and secondary metals and an understanding of metal demands. Previous studies have analyzed the in-use metal stocks mainly considering their volume and final products. However, an end-use sector where a final product is used (e.g., household, industry) is essential for information on the waste origin and recycling route. Therefore, in this study, the historical trends of in-use stocks and waste flows of copper in Japan until 2015 are comprehensively identified with high resolution of both the final products and end-use sectors based on input-output and dynamic material flow analysis. The results show that in-use copper stocks in manufacturing, infrastructure-related sectors, and household already peaked and decreased until 2015, while those in real estate and residence continued to increase. The in-use total copper stock peaked in 2008 (22.5 Tg) and later decreased, with 21.1 Tg in 2015, while the total copper waste flows increased, resulting in 1.0 Tg in 2015. Our analysis of copper waste flows indicates that the household was a significant end-use sector for copper recycling with unrecycled copper flows of 60.6 Gg in 2015. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the Japanese in-use copper stocks per capita for some end-use sectors decreased as per capita GDP increased, and some country-specific factors affected the in-use copper stock growth. The findings will help future demand forecasts and develop resource policies and recycling strategies toward sustainable metal management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We study the tenancy contract choice and its impact on productivity in the prewar Japanese agriculture, where a unique contractual form, the rent-reduction contract, was predominant. Theoretically, this contract is more efficient than share tenancy or fixed-rent contract in terms of provision of incentives and risk-sharing, and thus raises the question of why such an efficient contract was uncommon outside Japan. We argue that transaction costs on the execution of rent reduction were the key element in the adoption of this contract. In prewar Japan, local communities played some role in governing the process of rent reduction and mitigated such costs. Thus the study proposes transaction costs and institutions as additional determinant of tenancy contract choice. We also find that higher prevalence of tenancy was associated with lower average rice yield at the prefectural level and such correlation was stronger in prefectures with a greater proportion of share tenancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent financial crises in Japan and the United States have reminded central bankers of the importance of their mandate to serve as lenders of last resort. This article summarizes the key features of the two countries' crises, compares the policy response of the U.S. Federal Reserve with that of the Bank of Japan, and discusses the ways in which these responses have expanded the traditional boundaries of the lender of last resort function. The experience suggests that the conventional tool of liquidity provision, lending funds against risk-free collateral, has become inadequate for dealing with modern financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Japanese residential REITs rank second globally in terms of capitalization. • Their development has been initiated and strongly supported by the State. • REITs have also forged arrangements with corporate groups to accommodate their staff. • However, their housing supply does not match the bulk of Tokyo's residential demand. Over the past two decades, the private rental sector has grown significantly in Japan. Once an overlooked sector of the market, it has been seized by the financial industry to the point of becoming the second largest REIT residential market in the world. This paper explores the development of residential REITs in Japan, in a context of demographic decline and urban shrinkage. It highlights the strategies of major Japanese real estate groups to diversify their activities and strengthen their control over popular downtown Tokyo neighbourhoods, building on government initiatives to revitalize land markets and stabilize the banking system through real estate investment instruments. As the paper shows, the need to secure financial investors' expectations of attractive returns has led REIT asset managers to target the vast majority of their leasing activity to Japan's young, "promising" corporate employees. By pointing to the mediation of large corporations in the landlord-tenant relationship, the paper brings these neglected actors into the framework of financialized rental housing, and puts the analysis into the broader context of employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the impact of public capital investment on individual sectors of the Japanese economy using time-series data for the period of 1970–1998. We employ a production function approach and also estimate a dynamic VAR/ECM model. We find significant differences in the employment effects, output effects and private investment effects across sectors. Public capital investment has a positive effect on employment in the finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE), manufacturing, construction and utilities sectors; on private investment in the FIRE, agriculture, transportation, trade and services sectors; and on output in the mining, FIRE, trade and manufacturing sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - Conventional wisdom states that catastrophe risk securities show no or little correlation with stock and bond markets, and offer significant attractions to investors providing a good diversification of risks. This study examines the correlation between catastrophe risk securities and portfolios of other equities by analyzing catastrophe effects on the Japanese stock market. Design/methodology/approach - Using catastrophe data from SwissRe Sigma publications and stock returns from the Pacific-Basin Capital Markets database, this paper analyzes stock and abnormal returns in the Japanese stock market using event study methodology. Findings - For the Japanese stock market as a whole, there is no significant catastrophe effect. The results indicate a significant negative correlation between catastrophe loss amount and the insurance industry's equity returns and abnormal returns, a significant positive correlation with the construction industry, but no significant correlation with the real estate industry. This paper also analyzes the impact of catastrophe causalities. The results show little evidence on the significance of these variables. Originality/value - This study provides important insights to the insurance/reinsurance industry in the Japanese risk market for catastrophe property and mortality risk securitization and to investors who are interested in further improvement of their portfolio risk/return profile by including catastrophe risk securities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies whether bank credit fuels asset prices. Financial deregulation during the 1980s allowed keiretsus to obtain finance publicly and reduce their dependence on banks. Banks that lost these blue-chip customers increased their property lending, and serve as an instrument for the supply of real estate loans. Using this instrument, I find that a 0.01 increase in a prefecture's real estate loans as a share of total loans causes 14–20% higher land inflation compared with other prefectures over the 1981–91 period. The timing of losses of keiretsu customers also coincides with subsequent land inflation in a prefecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we estimate hedonic price equations of Japanese commercial and residential land prices for a 25-year period and to investigate possible structural changes in these price equations. Our price equations are based on transaction prices, not appraised land values, of commercial land in Central Business Districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda Ward, Chuo Ward, and Minato Ward), and residential land of its suburb (Setagaya Ward). We find that price structure differs substantially among locations, reflecting differences in supplier pricing and end-user preferences. We also find significant structural changes in price structure, identifying pre-bubble, bubble and post-bubble periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan's condominium sector expanded rapidly along with post-war urbanisation and high-speed economic growth. However, the bursting of the bubble economy in the 1990s undermined land and housing markets. Capital losses on condominiums have been disproportionate, especially in cases of older, smaller or non-centrally located condominiums. This analysis incorporates socio-cultural elements in explaining emerging patterns of fragmentation among homeowners and property values. It illustrates relationships between the meaning of housing commodities and the context of indigenous production and consumption processes in urban Japan. The paper specifically draws upon data from interviews with Japanese homeowners to illustrate the significance of values and perceptions in the modern condominium sector and their relationship to changing socioeconomic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) emerged in Asia in 2001, with Japan and Singapore as the market leaders. South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Malaysia have also launched REITs. This paper examines these REIT markets. The paper first examines the background of macroeconomic, financial market and real estate market development. The driving forces for REIT development on the supply and demand sides, government initiatives and market obstacles are also discussed. The initial performance of Asia REITs will be reviewed and contrasted with the common stocks in the respective markets. Finally, the future prospects of Asia REITs are assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose ? This paper seeks to investigate the nature and magnitude of the distortion in appraisal land price information according to change in the market, with a special focus on the Government's Published Land Prices. Design/methodology/approach ? In Japan, there is an item of land price information, so-called Koji-Chika (PLPS: Published Land Price Information System), that is a survey of fair market value by the qualified appraisers. The valuation error of this land price information was analyzed using the following method. First, hedonic price indices were constructed based on both actual transaction prices and the Published Land Prices, they were then compared to detect possible distortions in the governmental price information. Also the possibility of structural change in the Japanese real estate markets was studied and its effect on price indices was considered. Analysis of the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan took place between 1975 and 1999 Findings ? Large and systematic discrepancies between actual transaction prices and the Published Land Prices were identified, which might suggest that there are serious problems in the governmental information system. It is believed that it is necessary to consider this issue in the context of the entire real estate appraisal system in Japan. Research limitations/implications ? Limitations stem from the nature of Japanese data. Future research will seek to look at values on an IPD index. Originality/value ? The land market in Tokyo experienced a so-called Bubble economy, and the rapid rise and fall of the land price were generated for this period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The instruments of the Urban Reform have been conceived to discipline the operation of the real estate markets. This work deals with on one these instruments, the Land Readjustment. In the first part they are outlined, of way succinct, some social and territorial characteristics of the formation of Japan and Colombia in relation to the properly and the use of the urban land. In second we displayed three experiences in the use of the readjustment land, beginning by the one of the restoration postwar period of Nagoya to be, according to ours to seem, most emblematic and original of the manifold that can be found in Japan. The other two correspond to the reconstruction process post-earthquake of the city of Armenia in Colombia: one of them failed and another successful one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the residential property, cultural practices and the "generational contract" in England and Japan. The article provides a cross-national comparison between England and Japan around the particular exchange of housing assets and care provision between older parents and their adult children. There are many external factors shaping such micro-level family relations. As Walker suggests, what society does by way of social policy has a critical bearing on the nature and experience of generational relations. In other words, the sharp distinction between micro-level interpersonal relations and macro-level social and economic policy is misleading. The article begins by examining recent demographic shifts occurring in both England and Japan. An ageing population characterizes both societies, which has significant implications for property transfer between the generations. Also, the ways in which people accumulate their assets are embedded in the nation's housing market and institutional context. In both societies, changes in the economy, housing market, social policy, and family structure and formation affecting older homeowners in recent years have influenced their wealth accumulation as well as their attitudes and practices.

The social cost of imperfect information, in terms of buyers' search costs and sellers' opportunity costs of vacancy, is estimated in the real estate market of resale condominiums in central Tokyo by using a new, comprehensive dataset of resale condominium transactions. The results suggest a substantial social cost. Specifically, if housing information were perfectly available and marketing time were null, sellers would get benefits of 22.59% of imputed net rents of their property. In addition, buyers would save 1,042,000 yen spent on search activities for one transaction, if information were perfect. This is equivalent to 13.2% of buyers' average annual income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article deals with the conflicts surrounding the preservation of the cityscape in Kyoto, the historical capital of Japan. While the war left the city intact, real-estate development has greatly transformed the built environment since the 1960s. Repeatedly, this has caused heated controversy among the citizens which is the focus of my analysis. I start by presenting two case studies, the conflict about building a copy of the Parisian Pont des Arts and the rediscovery of the traditional town houses (kyô-machiya) in the 1990s. Then, I explore the role of the construction industry and proceed to popular conceptions of private real estate property that prove to be crucial. After showing how residents of old neighbourhoods and citizen activists differ in their attitudes, I conclude that the cityscape problem is a public-good problem that can only be solved by fully acknowledging this aspect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Home ownership is the most desired form of housing tenure around the world for reasons of security and certainty. Owning a house presents a struggle for families virtually everywhere: for example, in Tokyo a typical house can cost around five to six times the yearly earnings of a family. Many families simply do not possess sufficient funds to purchase a house with equity. A universal alternative to equity-based financing for outright purchase before taking possession of a house is through debt financing. Debt in total housing finance in Japan is around 60-70%. Housing finance systems struggle to create instruments that will efficiently finance the purchase of owner-occupied housing. Design of mortgages depends on the nature of the housing system, the allocation of risk and the economic and institutional factors in a country. The present paper focuses on housing finance arrangements in Japan. Mortgage loan funding in Japan is characterized by heavy dependence on government treasury investment, which is based on subsidies. The last decade virtually eroded the capital base of financial institutions due to non-performing loans and forced them to restructure their business models from lending to industrial enterprises to financing home purchases. Coupled with the price crash in property markets, after the bubble era, debate on the current housing finance system has emerged. Currently Japan is restructuring its housing finance institutions by redefining the role for the public sector. This paper contributes by analyzing the efficiency with which the mortgage market delivers mortgage credit to home-buyers in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]