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The topic of this paper concerns the impact of academic analysis in the field of Political Early Warning on the decision-making process of actors as the United Nations, the International Court of Justice, local practitioners and commonly foreign-policy de ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are no standard formulas, or even universal principles for recognizing, let alone forecasting violent conflict. Still, a set of explanatory factors considering background conditions as well as escalatory dynamics helps simplify the task of recognizi ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are no standard formulas, or even universal principles for recognising, let alone forecasting violent conflict. Still, a set of explanatory factors considering background conditions as well as escalatory dynamics helps simplify the task of recognising critical situations. The topic of this work concerns constellations and convergences of specific factors that characterise the pre-conflict phase of violent political conflicts. By the use of quantitative analytical methods, it focuses on the direct interaction between structural and dynamic indicators as precursors to crises. A model of indicators is presented that takes into account structurally determined cleavage lines in equal measure as their very mobilisation by dynamic factors.A close examination of leading explanatory factors could help intervening external actors adjust their potential options of pro-active or in-conflict policy responses. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are no standard formulas, or even universal principles for recognising, let alone forecasting violent conflict. Still, a set of explanatory factors considering background conditions as well as escalatory dynamics helps simplify the task of recognising critical situations. The topic of this work concerns constellations and convergences of specific factors that characterise the pre-conflict phase of violent political conflicts. By the use of quantitative analytical methods, it focuses on the direct interaction between structural and dynamic indicators as precursors to crises. A model of indicators is presented that takes into account structurally determined cleavage lines in equal measure as their very mobilisation by dynamic factors.A close examination of leading explanatory factors could help intervening external actors adjust their potential options of pro-active or in-conflict policy responses. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are no standard formulas, or even universal principles for recognising, let alone forecasting violent conflict. Still, a set of explanatory factors considering background conditions as well as escalatory dynamics helps simplify the task of recognising critical situations. The topic of this work concerns constellations and convergences of specific factors that characterise the pre-conflict phase of violent political conflicts. By the use of quantitative analytical methods, it focuses on the direct interaction between structural and dynamic indicators as precursors to crises. A model of indicators is presented that takes into account structurally determined cleavage lines in equal measure as their very mobilisation by dynamic factors.A close examination of leading explanatory factors could help intervening external actors adjust their potential options of pro-active or in-conflict policy responses. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are no standard formulas, or universal principles for recognizing, let alone forecasting violent conflict. Still, a set of explanatory factors considering background conditions as well as escalatory dynamics helps simplify the task of recognizing critical situations. The topic of this paper concerns constellations and convergences of specific factors that characterize the pre-conflict phase of violent political conflicts. By the use of quantitative analytical methods, it focuses on the direct interaction between structural and dynamic indicators as precursors to crises. A model of indicators is presented that takes into account structurally determined cleavage lines in equal measure as their very mobilization by dynamic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]