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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is thought to influence boreal winter surface conditions over Asia and around the North Atlantic. Confirming if these responses are robust is complicated by the QBO having multiple pathways to influence surface conditions as well as internal variability. The reanalysis record suggests that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the polar vortex that can elicit persistent surface impacts, are more frequent during easterly QBO (EQBO). Hence, this modulated frequency of SSWs may account for some of the EQBO surface responses. However, many climate models do not reproduce this QBO–SSW relationship, perhaps because it is noise or because the model QBOs are deficient. We circumvent these issues by using an ensemble of fixed boundary condition branched simulations in which a realistic EQBO is prescribed in control simulations previously devoid of a QBO, allowing us to isolate the transient atmospheric response to EQBO. Imposing EQBO accelerates the tropical upper-tropospheric wind, shifts the subtropical jet poleward, and attenuates the polar vortex. Interestingly, the latter is not entirely dependent on the statistically significant increase in SSW frequency due to EQBO. Corroborating observations, EQBO is associated with warmer surface temperatures over Asia and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. We then subsample the branched/control simulations based on which EQBO members have SSWs. The negative NAO response is primarily associated with more frequent SSWs, while the Asia warming develops irrespective of SSWs. These results have implications for wintertime predictability and clarify the pairing of particular QBO teleconnections with certain surface impacts. Significance Statement: The QBO is one of the few parts of the Earth system that is predictable months in advance and that also elicits global effects on surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation. Unfortunately, climate models and operational forecast systems do not simulate the QBO well and it is not always clear how robust the global impacts of the QBO are. Here, we impose the QBO in idealized model simulations, which modulates wintertime surface temperature and precipitation over Asia, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Africa in a manner consistent with observations. This work substantiates the importance of climate and forecast models properly simulating the QBO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant pattern of Northern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability is the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which in wintertime represents the coupling of the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations. The internal variability associated with the NAM has been shown to give rise to substantial uncertainty in climate projections of regional surface air temperatures (SATs), but it's unclear how much of this variability arises from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes. Here, using three large‐ensemble coupled climate model simulations from 1850 to 2100 with varying fidelity of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes, we demonstrate that regional SAT variability across timescales is amplified when the tropospheric NAM is coupled to the stratospheric NAM. Moreover, models that lack adequate simulation of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes may not capture the magnitude of uncertainty in near‐term SAT projections associated with this coupling. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale atmospheric circulation variability drives substantial variation in regional surface air temperatures (SATs), so that even on 30–40 year timescales local cooling trends are possible even as global‐mean temperatures increase. We provide evidence that when the stratospheric mean flow is coupled to the tropospheric mean flow, the decadal variability of SATs is amplified in some regions. Some models do not represent well the observed coupling of the stratosphere to the troposphere, and these models may underestimate decadal variability associated with this coupling. Key Points: The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) exhibits decadal variability that can accelerate or slow the rate of anthropogenic regional surface warmingAmplified decadal variability of extratropical surface temperatures occurs when the NAM is coupled from the stratosphere to the troposphereModels that fail to adequately capture vertical coupling may underestimate the magnitude of decadal variations in surface air temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research indicates that sexual and physical assault generate negative emotions of shame and anger, undermine self-esteem, and increase interpersonal sensitivity. This in turn may bring about behavioral changes and cognitive bias, which may adversely affect victims' social interactions. The purpose of this study was to examine whether sexual or physical assault before age 18 is associated with a heightened sense of being treated unfairly in early adulthood. A nationally representative sample of young adults age 18–21 (N = 2,770; 49% female) self-reported on whether they had ever been sexually or physically assaulted, whether it first occurred in childhood or adolescence, and how frequently they are treated unfairly in their everyday interactions with other people, as measured by the Everyday Discrimination Scale (EDS). Multivariate regression results indicated that child (≤age 12) physical assault and adolescent-onset (age 13–17) physical assault were associated with higher scores on the EDS for both men and women. Child sexual assault was associated with the EDS for men; adolescent-onset sexual assault was associated with the EDS for women. Violence as a minor was associated with each item of the EDS (e.g., treated with less respect, less courtesy, other people act of afraid of you, etc.). Violence victims attributed their elevated levels of perceived unfair treatment to their gender, race, age, and aspects of their physical appearance. Overall, the results suggest a mechanism through which a history of sexual and physical assault can affect social interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mainstream and popular science media are rife with misunderstandings about what a "polar vortex" is. The term most aptly describes the stratospheric polar vortex, a single feature dominating the cool‐season circulation from ∼15–50 km. Regional jet stream variations dominate the tropospheric circulation, which is not well‐described as a polar vortex; indeed, there is no single consistent definition of a tropospheric polar vortex in the literature. Stratospheric polar vortex disturbances profoundly influence extreme weather events, including cold air outbreaks (CAOs). How the stratospheric polar vortex affects tropospheric jets, whose local excursions drive CAOs, is not fully understood. Public‐facing parts of publications describing research on this topic are not always clear about how the "polar vortex" is defined; greater clarity could improve communications both within the community and with non‐specialist audiences. Plain Language Summary: What is a "polar vortex"? The atmospheric science community most commonly uses this term to describe the stratospheric polar vortex, a band of winds extending from about 15–50 km altitude that flows around the pole of each hemisphere during their respective fall through spring seasons. However, the term "polar vortex" has been used in mainstream media and popular science platforms to instead describe local variations in the upper tropospheric jet streams (winds that blow most strongly between about 8 and 13 km altitude) and even individual extreme cold weather events. We argue that the term should be used only in reference to the stratospheric polar vortex, which is a single feature that predominantly controls dynamical and chemical variability in the winter polar stratosphere. The stratospheric polar vortex is related to but distinct from more regional jet stream excursions and associated weather extremes; further study is needed to fully understand these relationships. Key Points: The stratospheric polar vortex is a well‐defined feature dominating the cool‐season circulation in each hemisphere from ∼15–50 km altitudeThe tropospheric circulation does not constitute a single coherent structure and is most aptly described by regional jet stream variationsAccuracy in defining and describing the "polar vortex" and its effects is key to improving understanding by non‐specialist audiences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude, stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal, ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models, and fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two recent occurrences in February 2018 and January 2019 of a dynamic split in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex are compared in terms of their evolution and predictability. The 2018 split vortex was associated with primarily wavenumber‐2 wave forcing that was not well predicted more than 7–10 days ahead of time, and was followed by persistent coupling to the surface with strong weather impacts. In 2019 the vortex was first displaced by slow wavenumber‐1 amplification into the stratosphere, which was predictable at longer lead times and then split; the surface impacts following the event were weaker. Here we examine the role of large‐scale climate influences, such as the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, on the wave forcing, surface impacts and predictability of these two events. Linkages between the forecast error in the stratospheric polar vortex winds with the forecast error in the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation are examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric polar vortex forms each winter 10-50 km above the surface over the pole, and variations in its strength and position are known to influence the weather we experience. During winter 2018-2019, the Arctic polar vortex was highly variable - with both a sudden stratospheric warming and a strong vortex event. The strong recovery of the SPV following the SSW is dynamically consistent with the prolonged period of easterly winds - these effectively "shield" the mid-to-upper stratosphere from tropospheric planetary wave activity, which can only propagate into westerly flow, allowing the vortex to be undisturbed and redevelop through radiative cooling. Vertical dashed lines indicate (from left to right) the vortex spin-up, the major SSW, the peak of the strong vortex event and the final warming. gl. [Extracted from the article]

Each spring, the climatological westerly winds of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex turn easterly as the stratospheric equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient relaxes. The timing of this event is dictated both by the annual return of sunlight to the pole and by dynamical influences from the troposphere. Here we consider the predictability of NH final stratospheric warmings in multimodel hindcasts from the Subseasonal to Seasonal project database. We evaluate how well the Subseasonal to Seasonal prediction systems perform in capturing the timing of final warmings. We compare the predictability of early warmings (which are more strongly driven by wave forcing) and late warmings and find that late warmings are more skillfully predicted at longer lead times. Finally, we find significantly increased predictive skill of NH near‐surface temperature anomalies at Weeks 3–4 lead times following only early final warmings. Key Points: Final stratospheric warmings that occur in early spring are less predictable than those that occur in late springThe interannual variability in the timing of the final warming is well predicted more than 4 weeks in advanceEarly final warmings provide a source of surface climate predictive skill at Weeks 3–4 in Northern Hemisphere spring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to determine whether the use of the word, Quiet increases veterinary emergency service triage traffic or hospital admissions. Days were randomized to be a control or test phrase day. On control days, the phrase, Have a nice day! was announced to the entire hospital staff. On test days, the phrase, Have a quiet day! was announced. No statistical difference in mean number of the patients presenting to the emergency service for triage (test phrase 30.1 ± 10.4 cases vs control phrase 30.3 cases ± 10.5, p = 0.91) or hospital admissions (test phrase 3.5 ± 1.9 cases vs control phrase 4.3 ± 2.4 cases, p = 0.13) was found for 24-h following phrase utterance. No statistical difference in mean number of patients presenting to the emergency service for triage (test phrase 2.7 ± 1.4 cases vs control phrase 2.6 ± 1.9 cases, p = 0.84) or hospital admissions (test phrase 0.3 ± 0.5 cases vs control phrase 0.5 ± 0.8 cases, p = 0.08) was found in the 2-h window immediately following phrase announcement. Despite popular myth, using the word, Quiet does not increase veterinary emergency service triage traffic or hospital admissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) on the atmosphere and surface climate depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. We use a set of CESM2(WACCM6) SAI simulations achieving three different levels of global mean surface cooling and demonstrate that unlike some direct surface climate impacts driven by the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI‐induced changes in the high latitude circulation and ozone are more complex and could be non‐linear. This manifests in our simulations by disproportionally larger Antarctic springtime ozone loss, significantly larger intra‐ensemble spread of the Arctic stratospheric jet and ozone responses, and non‐linear impacts on the extratropical modes of surface climate variability under the strongest‐cooling SAI scenario compared to the weakest one. These potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI. Plain Language Summary: The injection of reflective aerosols, or their precursors, into the lower stratosphere (Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, SAI) has been proposed as a temporary measure to offset some of the adverse impacts of climate change whilst atmospheric concentrations of greenhouses are being stabilized and, ultimately, reduced. The impacts of SAI on the atmosphere and surface climate would depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. Here we analyze SAI impacts on stratospheric climate and ozone in a set of Earth system model simulations under varying magnitudes of the SAI‐induced global mean cooling. We demonstrate that unlike some of the direct surface climate impacts from the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI‐induced changes in stratospheric circulation, chemistry and climate are more complex, with the model simulations pointing toward more non‐linear behavior of the high latitude circulation and ozone under higher SAI scenarios. These potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI. Key Points: Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) depend on how much surface cooling is to be achievedHigh latitude circulation, ozone and modes of extratropical variability can vary non‐linearly with the SAI‐induced global surface coolingThese potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various criteria exist for determining the occurrence of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), but the most common is based on the reversal of the climatological westerly zonal-mean zonal winds at 60° latitude and 10 hPa in the winter stratosphere. This definition was established at a time when observations of the stratosphere were sparse. Given greater access to data in the satellite era, a systematic analysis of the optimal parameters of latitude, altitude, and threshold for the wind reversal is now possible. Here, the frequency of SSWs, the strength of the wave forcing associated with the events, changes in stratospheric temperature and zonal winds, and surface impacts are examined as a function of the stratospheric wind reversal parameters. The results provide a methodical assessment of how to best define a standard metric for major SSWs. While the continuum nature of stratospheric variability makes it difficult to identify a decisively optimal threshold, there is a relatively narrow envelope of thresholds that work well—and the original focus at 60° latitude and 10 hPa lies within this window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major, sudden midwinter stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere are associated with a complete reversal of the climatological westerly winds (i.e., the polar vortex). These extreme events can have substantial impacts on winter surface climate, including increased frequency of cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia and anomalous warming over Greenland and eastern Canada. Here we present a SSW Compendium (SSWC), a new database that documents the evolution of the stratosphere, troposphere, and surface conditions 60 days prior to and after SSWs for the period 1958-2014. The SSWC comprises data from six different reanalysis products: MERRA2 (1980-2014), JRA-55 (1958-2014), ERA-interim (1979-2014), ERA-40 (1958-2002), NOAA20CRv2c (1958-2011), and NCEP-NCAR I (1958-2014). Global gridded daily anomaly fields, full fields, and derived products are provided for each SSW event. The compendium will allow users to examine the structure and evolution of individual SSWs, and the variability among events and among reanalysis products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major mid-winter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large and rapid temperature increases in the wintertime polar stratosphere associated with a complete reversal of the climatological westerly winds (i.e., the polar vortex). These extreme events can have substantial impacts on wintertime surface climate, such as cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia, or anomalous warming over Greenland. Here we present a SSW Compendium (SSWC), a new database that documents the evolution of the stratosphere, troposphere, and surface conditions 60 days prior to and after SSWs for the period 1958-2014. The SSWC comprises data from six different reanalysis products: MERRA2 (1980-2014), JRA-55 (1958-2014), ERA-interim (1979-2014), ERA-40 (1958-2002), NOAA20CRv2c (1958-2011), and NCEP-NCAR I (1958-2014). Global gridded daily anomaly fields, full fields, and derived products are provided for each SSW event. The compendium will allow users to examine the structure and evolution of individual SSWs, and the variability among events and among reanalysis products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics ('high-top') and models that do not ('low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere, occurring predominantly in the Northern Hemisphere. Major SSWs are also associated with a reversal of the climatological westerly zonal-mean zonal winds. Circulation anomalies associated with SSWs can descend into the troposphere with substantial surface weather impacts, such as wintertime extreme cold air outbreaks. After their discovery in 1952, SSWs were classified by the World Meteorological Organization. An examination of the literature suggests that a single, original reference for an exact definition of SSWs is elusive, but in many references a definition involves the reversal of the meridional temperature gradient and, for major warmings, the reversal of the zonal circulation poleward of 60° latitude at 10 hPa. Though versions of this definition are still commonly used to detect SSWs, the details of the definition and its implementation remain ambiguous. In addition, other SSW definitions have been used in the last few decades, resulting in inconsistent classification of SSW events. We seek to answer the questions: How has the SSW definition changed, and how sensitive is the detection of SSWs to the definition used? For what kind of analysis is a "standard" definition useful? We argue that a standard SSW definition is necessary for maintaining a consistent and robust metric to assess polar stratospheric wintertime variability in climate models and other statistical applications. To provide a basis for, and to encourage participation in, a communitywide discussion currently underway, we explore what criteria are important for a standard definition and propose possible ways to update the definition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of the stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes is evaluated in the subseasonal Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), hindcasts. The GEFSv12 hindcasts develop systematic stratospheric biases with increasing lead time, including a too strong boreal wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. In the tropical stratosphere, the GEFSv12 winds and temperatures associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) tend to decay with lead time such that they underestimate the observed amplitudes; consistently, the QBO-associated mean meridional circulation is too weak. The hindcasts predict extreme polar vortex events (including sudden stratospheric warmings and vortex intensifications) about 13–14 days in advance, and extreme lower-stratospheric eddy heat flux events about 6–10 days in advance. However, GEFSv12’s ability to predict these events is likely affected by its zonal-mean circulation biases, which increases the rates of false alarms and missed detections. Nevertheless, GEFSv12 shows stratosphere–troposphere coupling relationships that agree well with reanalysis and other subseasonal forecast systems. For instance, GEFSv12 reproduces reanalysis relationships between polar vortex strength and the Northern Annular Mode in the troposphere. It also exhibits enhanced weeks 3–5 prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation index when initialized during strong and weak polar vortex states compared to neutral states. Furthermore, GEFSv12 shows significant differences in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitudes and enhanced MJO predictive skill in week 4 during easterly versus westerly QBO phases, though these results are sensitive to the level used to define the QBO. Our results provide a baseline from which future GEFS updates may be measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictability on seasonal time scales over the North Atlantic-Europe region is assessed using a seasonal prediction system based on an initialized version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). For this region, two of the dominant predictors on seasonal time scales are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. Multiple studies have shown a potential for improved North Atlantic predictability for either predictor. Their respective influences are however difficult to disentangle, since the stratosphere is itself impacted by ENSO. Both El Niño and SSW events correspond to a negative signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has a major influence on European weather. This study explores the impact on Europe by separating the stratospheric pathway of the El Niño teleconnection. In the seasonal prediction system, the evolution of El Niño events is well captured for lead times of up to 6 months, and stratospheric variability is reproduced with a realistic frequency of SSW events. The model reproduces the El Niño teleconnection through the stratosphere, involving a deepened Aleutian low connected to a warm anomaly in the northern winter stratosphere. The stratospheric anomaly signal then propagates downward into the troposphere through the winter season. Predictability of 500-hPa geopotential height over Europe at lead times of up to 4 months is shown to be increased only for El Niño events that exhibit SSW events, and it is shown that the characteristic negative NAO signal is only obtained for winters also containing major SSW events for both the model and the reanalysis data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Longitudinal data on non-Hispanic White children from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (N = 1,056) were used to examine whether the relationship between poverty (early childhood poverty, poverty persistence, and current poverty) and adolescent depressive symptoms (mea-sured by the Children's Depression Inventory and the Internalizing Index) can be explained by the mother's own childhood depression and family characteristics measured during the child's first year of life. Associations between poverty and depressive symptoms among adolescents were explained by mother's childhood depression and whether the adolescent had lived with both parents during the first year of life. The findings highlight the need for appropriate treatment of childhood depression so as to reduce the adverse consequences in adulthood and for the next generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. Co-morbidity between depression and anxiety disorders is common. In this study we define a quantitative measure of anxiety by summating four anxiety items from the SCAN interview in a large collection of major depression (MDD) cases to identify genes contributing to this complex phenotype. Methods. A total of 1522 MDD cases dichotomised according to those with at least one anxiety item scored ( n = 1080) and those without anxiety ( n = 442) were analysed, and also compared to 1588 healthy controls at a genome-wide level, to identify genes that may contribute to anxiety in MDD. Results. For the quantitative trait, suggestive evidence of association was detected for two SNPs, and for the dichotomous anxiety present/absent ratings for three SNPs at genome-wide level. In the genome-wide analysis of MDD cases with co-morbid anxiety and healthy controls, two SNPs attained P values of < 5 × 10-6. Analysing candidate genes, P values ≤ 0.0005 were found with three SNPs for the quantitative trait and three SNPs for the dichotomous trait. Conclusions. This study provides an initial genome-wide assessment of possible genetic contribution to anxiety in MDD. Although suggestive evidence of association was found for several SNPs, our findings suggest that there are no common variants strongly associated with anxious depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To identify prospectively measured risk factors of sexual assault (SA) among girls age 17 and younger. The data come from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and are derived from interviews with 1,087 girls, their primary caregivers, and household heads. The data were collected from the girls’ first year of life through their early twenties. Factors measured during childhood were used to predict whether the girls experienced a subsequent first sexual assault before the age of 18. Prospectively measured risk factors associated with subsequent child SA included the absence of one or both parents, maternal education less than college, family income below 400% of the federal poverty threshold, low caregiver warmth, child internalizing and externalizing behaviors, impulsivity, low achievement scores, and having been classified by their school as needing special education. Girls with behavioral health problems and learning challenges are at heightened risk for sexual assault. Research on behavioral health consequences of SA should control for preexisting SA risk factors to more accurately estimate the impact of child SA on subsequent behavioral health. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December-February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]