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Since the beginning of COVID-19, more than 13,036,550 people have been infected, and 571,574 died because of the disease by July 13, 2020. Developing new methodologies to predict the COVID-19 pandemic will help policymakers plan to contain the spread of the virus. In this research, we develop a Stochastic Fractal Search algorithm combined with a mathematical model to forecast the pandemic. To enhance the algorithm, we employed a design of the experiments approach for tuning.We applied our algorithm to public datasets to model the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada in the upcoming months. Our algorithm predicts the number of symptomatic, asymptomatic, life-threatening, recovered, and death cases. The outcomes reveal that asymptomatic cases play the main role in the transmission of the virus.Wealso show that increasing the testing capacity would enhance the detection of asymptomatic cases and limit community transmission. Moreover, we performed sensitivity analyses to discover the effects of changes in transmission rates on pandemic growth. The sensitivity analyses provide a realistic overview of the future number of cases if the transmission rates change due to the emergence of new variants or change in social measures. Considering the outcomes, we provide several managerial insights to minimize community transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct text-based measures of the primary concerns listed firms associated with the spread of COVID-19 and other epidemic diseases. We identify which firms perceive to lose or gain from a given epidemic and textually decompose the epidemic's effect on the firm's demand and supply. We find that the effects of COVID-19 manifest as a simultaneous shock to demand and supply, with both shocks affecting firms' market valuations in equal measure on average. By contrast, demand-related impacts appear more important in accounting for the observed collapse in firm-level investment during the COVID-19 crisis. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Mother-to-child transmission is the primary cause of HIV cases among children. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) plays a critical role in preventing mother-to-child transmission and reducing HIV progression, morbidity, and mortality among mothers. However, after more than two decades of ART during pregnancy, the comparative effectiveness and safety of ART medications during pregnancy are unclear, and existing evidence is contradictory. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of different ART regimens among pregnant women living with HIV at preconception or during pregnancy. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Web of Science. We included randomized trials that enrolled pregnant women living with HIV and randomized them to receive ART for at least four weeks. Pairs of reviewers independently completed screening for eligible studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Our outcomes of interest included low birth weight, stillbirth, preterm birth, mother-to-child transmission of HIV, neonatal death, and congenital anomalies. Network meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects frequentist model, and the certainty of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE approach. RESULTS: We found 14 eligible randomized trials enrolling 9,561 pregnant women. The median duration of ART uptake ranged from 6.0 to 17.4 weeks. No treatment was statistically better than a placebo in reducing the rate of neonatal mortality, stillbirth, congenital defects, preterm birth, or low birth weight deliveries. Compared to placebo, zidovudine (ZDV)/lamivudine (3TC) and ZDV monotherapy likely reduce mother-to-child transmission (odds ratio (OR): 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.31, high-certainty; and OR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.74, moderate-certainty). Moderate-certainty evidence suggested that ZDV/3TC was associated with decreased odds of stillbirth (OR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.09 to 2.60). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis provides high- to moderate-certainty evidence that ZDV/3TC and ZDV are more effective in reducing the odds of mother-to-child transmission, with ZDV/3TC also demonstrating decreased odds of stillbirth. Notably, our findings suggest an elevated odds of stillbirth and preterm birth associated with all other ART regimens.

The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) threatens people's health. During the COVID-19 outbreak, people are encouraged to wear masks to reduce the spread of the virus. With the strong demand for masks, it has come a boom in counterfeit production. Combating counterfeit masks is vital and urgent to reduce the risks for public health. Motivated by the actual practices during the COVID-19, we examine how quality inspection and blockchain adoption help combat counterfeit masks. We find that quality inspection may not be always effective, as the government will tolerate the presence of counterfeit masks if the presence of the counterfeits is not significant. Comparing quality inspection with blockchain adoption, when the spread of COVID-19 is mild, authentic mask sellers may be encouraged to use the blockchain technology, which can increase their profits and reduce the social health risk. Furthermore, we extend our model to investigate the impacts of endogenous quality. Both quality inspection and blockchain adoption can induce low-quality mask sellers to enhance thequality level. When the number of counterfeit masks is increasing, encouraging the high-quality mask sellers to adopt the blockchain technology is effective to reduce social health risk when the spread of the coronavirus is rapid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemic trajectories can be substantially impacted by people modifying their behaviours in response to changes in their perceived risk of spreading or contracting the disease. However, most infectious disease models assume a stable population behaviour. We present a flexible new class of models, called behavioural change individual‐level models (BC‐ILMs), that incorporate both individual‐level covariate information and a data‐driven behavioural change effect. Focusing on spatial BC‐ILMs, we consider four “alarm” functions to model the effect of behavioural change as a function of infection prevalence over time. Through simulation studies, we find that if behavioural change is present, using an alarm function, even if specified incorrectly, will result in an improvement in posterior predictive performance over a model that assumes stable population behaviour. The methods are applied to data from the 2001 U.K. foot and mouth disease epidemic. The results show some evidence of a behavioural change effect, although it may not meaningfully impact model fit compared to a simpler spatial ILM in this dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compartmental models of disease spread have been well studied on networks built according to the Configuration Model, i.e., where the degree distribution of individual nodes is specified, but where connections are made randomly. Dynamics of spread on such "first order" networks were shown to be profoundly different compared to epidemics under the traditional mass action assumption. Assortativity, i.e., the preferential mixing of nodes according to degree, is a second order property that is thought to impact epidemic trajectory. We first show how assortative mixing can come about from individual preferences to connect with others of lower or higher degree, and propose an algorithm for constructing such a network. We then investigate via simulation how this network structure favors or inhibits diffusion processes, such as the spread of an infectious disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Blood transfusion is an important mode of infectious disease transmission in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study describes a model to determine the prevalence of transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) and the associated burden of disease. Methods: A five-step model was developed to determine the TTI-related burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Uganda was selected as the study country. Results: Approximately 298,266 units of blood were transfused in Uganda in 2019, yielding an estimated TTI incidence of 6,858 new TTIs (2.3% of transfused units) and prevalence of 19,141 TTIs (6.4% of transfused units). The total burden of disease is 2,903 DALYs, consisting of approximately 2,590 years of life lost (YLLs), and 313 years lived with disability (YLDs). Conclusion: The incidence and prevalence of TTIs and the associated burden of disease can be calculated on a local and national level. The model can be applied by health ministries to estimate the impact of TTIs in order to develop blood safety strategies to reduce the burden of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entomological investigations were conducted for the first time in urban forest remnants of Porto Velho, state of Rondônia, Brazil, to explore the transmission dynamics of Leishmania. Sand fly collections were carried out at ten sites, encompassing both canopy and ground strata, from October to December 2021. A total of 1,671 sand flies were collected, representing 42 species within 12 genera. Nyssomyia Antunesi (n = 384) and Psychodopygus davisi (n = 111) were the most abundant species. Molecular analyses targeting the V7V8 region (18S gene) unveiled the presence of sequences 100% identical to Leishmania infantum in females of Bichromomyia flaviscutellata (1), Nyssomyia Antunesi complex (6), Nyssomyia umbratilis (1), Nyssomyia sp. (1), Psychodopygus ayrozai (1), Ps. davisi (3), Psychodopygus paraensis (1), and Sciopemyia sordellii (1). Sequences 100% similar to Trypanosoma minasense were found in two samples of the Nyssomyia Antunesi complex, and two samples of Sc. sordellii presented 100% identity to a Trypanosoma sp. strain, previously identified in this same sand fly in Rondônia. Sequencing of Cytb fragment suggested Homo sapiens, Dasypus novemcinctus and Tamandua tetradactyla as the blood source for distinct sand flies. The identification of sequences similar to L. infantum in sand flies collected in urban forest fragments is noteworthy, correlating with the recent local and regional occurrence of autochthonous cases of human visceral leishmaniasis. However, further studies are imperative to ascertain the presence of hosts/reservoirs and evaluate the risk of L. infantum transmission to humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lyme arthritis (LA) was recognized as a separate entity in 1975 because of geographic clustering of children often diagnosed with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis in Lyme, Connecticut. After identification of erythema migrans as a common early feature of the illness, a prospective study of such patients implicated Ixodes scapularis ticks in disease transmission. In 1982, the causative agent, now called Borrelia burgdorferi , was cultured from these ticks and from Lyme disease patients. Subsequently, it was shown that LA could usually be treated successfully with oral antibiotics but sometimes required intravenous antibiotics. Yet, a small percentage of patients developed a dysregulated, proinflammatory immune response leading to persistent postinfectious synovitis with vascular damage, cytotoxic and autoimmune responses, and fibroblast proliferation, a lesion similar to that of rheumatoid arthritis. The message from postinfectious LA for other autoimmune arthritides is that a complex immune response with autoimmune features can begin with a microbial infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Virtually all cases of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in children in the United States occur through vertical transmission, but it is unknown how many children are infected. Cases of maternal HCV infection have increased in the United States, which may increase the number of children vertically infected with HCV. Infection has long-term consequences for a child's health, but treatment options are now available for children ≥3 years old. Reducing HCV infections in adults could decrease HCV infections in children. Methods Using a stochastic compartmental model, we forecasted incidence of HCV infections in children in the United States from 2022 through 2027. The model considered vertical transmission to children <13 years old and horizontal transmission among individuals 13–49 years old. We obtained model parameters and initial conditions from the literature and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 2021 Viral Hepatitis Surveillance Report. Results Model simulations assuming direct-acting antiviral treatment for children forecasted that the number of acutely infected children would decrease slightly and the number of chronically infected children would decrease even more. Alone, treatment and early screening in individuals 13–49 years old reduced the number of forecasted cases in children and, together, these policy interventions were even more effective. Conclusions Based on our simulations, acute and chronic cases of HCV infection are remaining constant or slightly decreasing in the United States. Improving early screening and increasing access to treatment in adults may be an effective strategy for reducing the number of HCV infected children in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enforcing strict protocols that prevent transmission of airborne infections in prisons is challenging. We examine a large severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 outbreak in a Catalan penitentiary center in February–April 2021, prior to vaccination deployment. The aim was to describe the evolution of the outbreak using classical and genomic epidemiology and the containment strategy applied. The outbreak was initially detected in 1 module but spread to 4, infecting 7 staff members and 140 incarcerated individuals, 6 of whom were hospitalized (4.4%). Genomic analysis confirmed a single origin (B.1.1.7). Contact tracing identified transmission vectors between modules and prevented further viral spread. In future similar scenarios, the control strategy described here may help limit transmission of airborne infections in correctional settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Competency of the staff working in infection prevention and control (IPC) is the cornerstone of successful IPC programs. The objective was to assess competency level and associated factors among IPC staff working in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out in 2019 among active IPC staff who were members of the Arab Countries Infection Control Network. The questionnaire covered demographic and professional characteristics of IPC staff and characteristics of work facilities and IPC programs. A competency score was created from self-perceived responses to 8 competency domains. The competency score was then transformed into 100-scale and categorized into two groups (≥ median and < median). Results: A total of 176 participants completed the survey. Participants were mostly female (65.7%), and the mean age was 40.2 ± 8.3 years. The mean competency score was 61.4%. It was slightly variable between domains, being highest with preventing transmission of infection (65%) and lowest with sterilization and disinfection (59%). Higher (≥ median) competency score was associated with having CBIC certification (p < 0.001). It was also associated with facilities having IPC plan (p = 0.005), IPC committee (p = 0.049), regular meetings of IPC committee (p < 0.001), and IPC plan included communications with healthcare workers (p < 0.001). Domain-specific competency scores were significantly associated with receiving same domain-specific training (p < 0.05 for all). Conclusions: The competency levels of IPC staff in the MENA region is still suboptimal. The current finding calls for more regional and national investment in IPC staff by providing up-to-date customized educational and training opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Describing the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases across different regions is crucial for effective disease surveillance. The multivariate time series (MTS) model has been widely adopted for constructing cross-regional infectious disease transmission networks due to its strengths in interpretability and predictive performance. Nevertheless, the assumption of constant parameters frequently disregards the dynamic shifts in disease transmission rates, thereby compromising the accuracy of early warnings. This study investigated the applicability of time-varying MTS models in multi-regional infectious disease monitoring and explored strategies for model selection. Methods: This study focused on two prominent time-varying MTS models: the time-varying parameter-stochastic volatility-vector autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model and the time-varying VAR model using the generalized additive framework (tvvarGAM), and intended to explore and verify their applicable conditions for the surveillance of infectious diseases. For the first time, this study proposed the time delay coefficient and spatial sparsity indicators for model selection. These indicators quantify the temporal lags and spatial distribution of infectious disease data, respectively. Simulation study adopted from real-world infectious disease surveillance was carried out to compare model performances under various scenarios of spatio-temporal variation as well as random volatility. Meanwhile, we illustrated how the modelling process could help the surveillance of infectious diseases with an application to the influenza-like case in Sichuan Province, China. Results: When the spatio-temporal variation was small (time delay coefficient: 0.1–0.2, spatial sparsity:0.1–0.3), the TVP-SV-VAR model was superior with smaller fitting residuals and standard errors of parameter estimation than those of the tvvarGAM model. In contrast, the tvvarGAM model was preferable when the spatio-temporal variation increased (time delay coefficient: 0.2–0.3, spatial sparsity: 0.6–0.9). Conclusion: This study emphasized the importance of considering spatio-temporal variations when selecting appropriate models for infectious disease surveillance. By incorporating our novel indicators—the time delay coefficient and spatial sparsity—into the model selection process, the study could enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of infectious disease monitoring efforts. This approach was not only valuable in the context of this study, but also has broader implications for improving time-varying MTS analyses in various applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this article is to formulate and study a mathematical model describing hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection dynamics. The model includes two essential modes of infection transmission, namely, virus-to-cell and cell-to-cell. The effect of therapy and adaptive immunity are incorporated in the suggested model. The adaptive immunity is represented by its two categories, namely, the humoral and cellular immune responses. Our article begins by establishing some mathematical results through proving the model's well-posedness in terms of existence, positivity and boundedness of solutions. We present all the steady states of the problem that depend on specific reproduction numbers. It moves then to the theoretical investigation of the local and global stability analysis of the free disease equilibrium and the four disease equilibria. The local and global stability analysis of the HCV mathematical model are established via the Routh-Hurwitz criteria and Lyapunov-LaSalle invariance principle, respectively. Finally, our article presents some numerical simulations to validate the analytical study of the global stability. Numerical simulations have shown the effect of the drug therapies on the system's dynamical behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several factors significantly contribute to the onset of infectious diseases, including direct and indirect transmissions and their respective impacts on incubation periods. The intricate interplay of these factors within social networks remains a puzzle yet to be unraveled. In this study, we conduct a stability analysis within a network-organized SIR model incorporating dual delays to explore the influence of direct and indirect incubation periods on disease spread. Additionally, we investigate how compound networks affect the critical incubation period. Our findings reveal several vital insights. First, by examining crossing curves and the dispersion equation, we establish the conditions for Turing instability and delineate the stable regions associated with dual delays. Second, we ascertain that the critical incubation value exhibits an inverse relationship with a network's eigenvalues, indicating that the Laplacian matrix does not solely dictate periodic behavior in the context of delays. Furthermore, our study elucidates the impact of delays and networks on pattern formation, revealing distinct pattern types across different regions. Specifically, our observations suggest that effectively curtailing the spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is more achievable when the incubation period for indirect contact is shorter and for direct contact is longer. Namely, our network framework enables regulation of the optimal combination of (τ 1 , τ 2) to mitigate the risk of infectious diseases. In summary, our results offer valuable theoretical insights that can inform strategies for preventing and managing infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major global health problem continues to be malaria, a disease that can be fatal brought on by Plasmodium parasites and spread by the bite of infected Anopheles mosquitoes. We provide a deterministic mathematical model in this study to simulate the dynamics of malaria transmission between humans and mosquitoes. We present a new compartment for hospitalized patients as well as fractional calculus. The next-generation matrix technique is used to obtain the fundamental reproduction number, R 0 , and stability conditions for the model's equilibrium points are derived. Both locally and globally, the sensitivity analysis for the fundamental reproduction number R 0 is satisfied. In MAPLE, the Runge–Kutta fourth-order approach is used to simulate the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The toxin-antitoxin (TA) system plays a vital role in the virulence and pathogenicity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis). However, the regulatory mechanisms and the impact of gene mutations on M. tuberculosis transmission remain poorly understood. Objective: To investigate the influence of gene mutations in the toxin-antitoxin system on M. tuberculosis transmission dynamics. Method: We performed whole-genome sequencing on the analyzed strains of M. tuberculosis. The genes associated with the toxin-antitoxin system were obtained from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Gene database. Mutations correlating with enhanced transmission within the genes were identified by using random forest, gradient boosting decision tree, and generalized linear mixed models. Results: A total of 13,518 M. tuberculosis isolates were analyzed, with 42.29% (n = 5,717) found to be part of genomic clusters. Lineage 4 accounted for the majority of isolates (n = 6488, 48%), followed by lineage 2 (n = 5133, 37.97%). 23 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed a positive correlation with clustering, including vapB1 G34A, vapB24 A76C, vapB2 T171C, mazF2 C85T, mazE2 G104A, vapB31 T112C, relB T226A, vapB11 C54T, mazE5 T344C, vapB14 A29G, parE1 (C103T, C88T), and parD1 C134T. Six SNPs, including vapB6 A29C, vapB31 T112C, parD1 C134T, vapB37 G205C, Rv2653c A80C, and vapB22 C167T, were associated with transmission clades across different countries. Notably, our findings highlighted the positive association of vapB6 A29C, vapB31 T112C, parD1 C134T, vapB37 G205C, vapB19 C188T, and Rv2653c A80C with transmission clades across diverse regions. Furthermore, our analysis identified 32 SNPs that exhibited significant associations with clade size. Conclusion: Our study presents potential associations between mutations in genes related to the toxin-antitoxin system and the transmission dynamics of M. tuberculosis. However, it is important to acknowledge the presence of confounding factors and limitations in our study. Further research is required to establish causation and assess the functional significance of these mutations. These findings provide a foundation for future investigations and the formulation of strategies aimed at controlling TB transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leishmania species, members of the kinetoplastid parasites, cause leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease, in millions of people worldwide. Leishmania has a complex life cycle with multiple developmental forms, as it cycles between a sand fly vector and a mammalian host; understanding their life cycle is critical to understanding disease spread. One of the key life cycle stages is the haptomonad form, which attaches to insect tissues through its flagellum. This adhesion, conserved across kinetoplastid parasites, is implicated in having an important function within their life cycles and hence in disease transmission. Here, we discover the kinetoplastid-insect adhesion proteins (KIAPs), which localise in the attached Leishmania flagellum. Deletion of these KIAPs impairs cell adhesion in vitro and prevents Leishmania from colonising the stomodeal valve in the sand fly, without affecting cell growth. Additionally, loss of parasite adhesion in the sand fly results in reduced physiological changes to the fly, with no observable damage of the stomodeal valve and reduced midgut swelling. These results provide important insights into a comprehensive understanding of the Leishmania life cycle, which will be critical for developing transmission-blocking strategies. The function of the first proteins that mediate adhesion of Leishmania parasites to its sand fly vector are reported. Loss of these proteins stops parasite adhesion, reducing physiological changes to the fly that will likely impact transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial contamination of hospital surfaces is a major contributor to infectious disease transmission. This work demonstrates that superhydrophobic (Cassie‐Baxter) micro post topographies can significantly reduce cell attachment compared to flat controls. For ordered micro post arrays (post diameters 0.3 to 150 µm), the attachment of four pathogens (Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, and Candida albicans) from discrete contaminant droplets upon short‐term contact (15 s to 30 min) are assessed. There is a 3‐4‐log decrease in microbial attachment when reducing the micro posts diameters from 150 to 0.3 µm for all strains, with large posts (>20 µm) exhibiting similar attachment rates to flat controls. The critical, maximum feature size to prevent attachment can be tuned depending on the ratio of the cell size to post diameter. Two potential mechanisms are discussed for this size effect. First, application of the random sequential adsorption model shows that this relative post/cell size effect may be due to a reduced probability of attachment, which is theorized to be the dominant mechanism. Alternatively, a physical model is suggested for bacterial cell "pull‐off" due to surface tension forces during droplet dewetting. This work may be important for the design of non‐wetting antimicrobial surfaces within healthcare environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wild boar population dynamics promote the increase in numbers and distribution of the species in Eurasia, leading to a rise in the interaction with human activities, as well as generating problems with the management of certain infectious diseases, most notably African swine fever (ASF). ASF virus possesses high stability in several contaminated pork and pork products that can be a source of indirect transmission to susceptible hosts habituated to anthropogenic food waste. This transmission route is a concerning threat for the dispersion of the disease, primarily into unaffected areas given the worldwide widespread distribution of the disease and the increase of wild boar contact with humans. Thus, in this study, a straightforward tool to assess the relative risk of wild boar natural populations potentially consuming food waste is presented using synthetic data. Three risk groups were defined related to urban areas, travel, and leisure. The surrounding quality of habitat of wild boar was used to obtain the relative risk of wild boar potentially consuming anthropogenic food waste. To assign the relative risk to the corresponding risk unit, we also included the population for the urban areas group, and traffic volume for the travel risk group. The leisure group had higher scaled risk scores, followed by the urban areas group. Higher risk was found in the edges of the study area where more natural landscapes are found. The implications of this risk are discussed focusing on the context of ASF transmission. The outputs can help prioritize decision-making in terms of the improvement of preventive measures against the habituation of wild boar to anthropogenic food waste and ASFV introduction in a given study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human behaviors have non-negligible impacts on spread of contagious disease. For instance, large-scale gathering and high mobility of population could lead to accelerated disease transmission, while public behavioral changes in response to pandemics may effectively reduce contacts and suppress the peak of the outbreak. In order to understand how spatial characteristics like population mobility and clustering interplay with epidemic outbreaks, we formulate a stochastic-statistical environment-epidemic dynamic system (SEEDS) via an agent-based biased random walk model on a two-dimensional lattice. The "popularity" and "awareness" variables are taken into consideration to capture human natural and preventive behavioral factors, which are assumed to guide and bias agent movement in a combined way. It is found that the presence of the spatial heterogeneity, like social influence locality and spatial clustering induced by self-aggregation, potentially suppresses the contacts between agents and consequently flats the epidemic curve. Surprisedly, disease responses might not necessarily reduce the susceptibility of informed individuals and even aggravate disease outbreak if each individual responds independently upon their awareness. The disease control is achieved effectively only if there are coordinated public-health interventions and public compliance to these measures. Therefore, our model may be useful for quantitative evaluations of a variety of public-health policies. Author summary: This article investigates at multi-level the roles played by spatial heterogeneities in epidemic dynamics. For this purpose we propose a novel stochastic-statistical particle model implemented on a two-dimensional lattice field, where various individual-varying spatially inhomogeneous human behavioral factors are incorporated into an agent-based epidemic modeling framework. With extensive simulations of our model, we are able to carry out thorough investigations on the impacts of heterogeneities at individual and spatial levels on epidemics trajectories during the early stage of an outbreak. It has been observed that spatial heterogeneity is consistently shown to be connected with suppressed and delayed epidemic peaks. These findings add valuable knowledge on the mechanism of the form and distribution of population clusters affecting an epidemic wave. Moreover, we examine the interplay between spatial/individual heterogeneities and public-health policies in an intensive and systematic way across various parameter regimes, whose conclusions we believe are going to complement beneficially to both the theoretical and practical understanding of epidemic control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper establishes a new fractional frSIS model utilizing a continuous time random walk method. There are two main innovations in this paper. On the one hand, the model is analyzed from a mathematical perspective. First, unlike the classic SIS infectious disease model, this model presents the infection rate and cure rate in a fractional order. Then, we proved the basic regeneration number R0 of the model and studied the influence of orders a and b on R0. Second, we found that frSIS has a disease-free equilibrium point E0 and an endemic equilibrium point E∗. Moreover, we proved frSIS global stability of the model using R0. If R0<1, the model of E0 is globally asymptotically stable. If R0>1, the model of E∗ is globally asymptotically stable. On the other hand, from the perspective of infectious diseases, we discovered that appropriately increasing a and decreasing b are beneficial for controlling the spread of diseases and ultimately leading to their disappearance. This can help us provide some dynamic adjustments in prevention and control measures based on changes in the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS‐CoV‐2 remains unknown due to under‐ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as a more reliable source of information, likely less prone to under‐reporting. Since daily deaths occur from past infections weighted by their probability of death, one may infer the total number of infections accounting for their age distribution, using the data on reported deaths. We adopt this framework and assume that the dynamics generating the total number of infections can be described by a continuous time transmission model expressed through a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations where the transmission rate is modeled as a diffusion process allowing to reveal both the effect of control strategies and the changes in individuals behavior. We develop this flexible Bayesian tool in Stan and study 3 pairs of European countries, estimating the time‐varying reproduction number (Rt$$ {R}_t $$) as well as the true cumulative number of infected individuals. As we estimate the true number of infections we offer a more accurate estimate of Rt$$ {R}_t $$. We also provide an estimate of the daily reporting ratio and discuss the effects of changes in mobility and testing on the inferred quantities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A larger percentage of social housing tenants have poorer physical and mental health outcomes compared to private renters and homeowners. They are also at a greater risk of respiratory conditions, cardiovascular disease, communicable disease transmission and mortality. One approach that aims to reduce health inequalities is to create research partnerships with underserved local communities. Our primary aim was to develop a research partnership with social housing tenants in Nottingham and our secondary aim was to explore the health priorities of these social housing tenants to inform future research applications. We also hope to provide a descriptive process of PPI within a social housing context for other researchers to learn from. Methods: We used Public and Patient Involvement (PPI) as the foundation of this work, as we believed that people with lived experience of social housing, also end-users of the research, were best placed to inform us of the areas with the greatest research need. Through online and in-person focus groups, we discussed with tenants, collectively named a Social Advisory Group (SAG), their health concerns and priorities. Together they raised 26 health issues, which were combined with 22 funding opportunity themes being offered by the NIHR (National Institute for Health and Care Research). This was with the purpose of investigating whether there was alignment between the health needs of Nottingham's social housing tenants and the NIHR's research priorities. A prioritisation technique (Diamond Nine) was used to sort in total, 48 areas of health and wellbeing, into three top priorities. Tenants were provided the opportunity to be involved in public health research in other ways too, such as reviewing this paper and also an NIHR Programme Development Grant application to expand and continue this work. One was also offered the opportunity to be a public co-applicant. Results: The group prioritised improvements in the quality of social housing, mental health and healthcare services. There was only some alignment between these and the NIHR funding themes. Other factors, such as age and race, also determined individual health priorities.. The diversity and reach of the current project were limited, however this is something we hope to improve in the future with more funding. We learned that tenants have varying degrees of mobility and technological abilities, requiring both online and in-person meetings. Plain English summary: Social housing is offered to people who cannot afford to buy or rent in the open market, and a larger percentage of social housing tenants have poorer physical and mental health outcomes compared to the general population. One approach that aims to reduce health inequalities is to create sustainable research partnerships with underserved local communities. Our primary aim was to involve social housing tenants in public health research, as they are best placed to tell us the type of research they would benefit from. The secondary aim was to explore the health priorities of social housing tenants to inform future research applications. We also hope to describe the process of PPI within a social housing context for other researchers to learn from. To achieve these aims, we established a research partnership with a group of social housing tenants in Nottingham and spoke to them about the areas of their health they wanted to improve (i.e., their priorities). The topics that were discussed the most were the need for improved mental health, quality of social housing and healthcare services, however this varied between individuals according to race and age. We learned several things throughout this process. Firstly, the combination of mobility and technological abilities amongst tenants meant that meetings must be held both in-person and online. This ensured they remained accessible and convenient. Secondly, we learnt that in-person meetings should be held in a neutral space to encourage different members of the group to attend. Finally, in general, people were very enthusiastic about this partnership and were committed to seeing improvements in public health. We therefore provided more opportunities for the group to be involved in research. For example, they were offered the opportunity to write and edit a lay summary for a future research application, which was based on the priorities identified in this paper. One member of the group was nominated to be the public co-applicant , which would allow us to increase the reach of this housing work across the East Midlands. It would also allow us to increase the diversity of the group, as currently it is made up of mostly retired females of British origin. Involving the public in health research has been central to this process and continues to be important in the production of accessible and relevant research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a reliable mathematical model to explain the spread of typhoid fever, covering stages of susceptibility, infection, carrying, and recovery, specifically in the Sheno town community. A detailed analysis is done to ensure the solutions are positive, stay within certain limits, and are stable for both situations where the disease is absent and where it is consistently present. The Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion has been used and applied for the purpose of stability analysis. Using the next-generation matrix, we determined the intrinsic potential for disease transmission. It showing that typhoid fever is spreading actively in Sheno town, with cases above a critical level. Our findings reveal the instability of the disease-free equilibrium point alongside the stability of the endemic equilibrium point. We identified two pivotal factors for transmission of the disease: the infectious rate, representing the speed of disease transmission, and the recruitment rate, indicating the rate at which new individuals enter the susceptible population. These parameters are indispensable for devising effective control measures. It is imperative to keep these parameters below specific thresholds to maintain a basic reproduction number favorable for disease control. Additionally, the study carefully examines how different factors affect the spread of typhoid fever, giving a detailed understanding of its dynamics. At the end, this study provides valuable insights and specific strategies for managing the disease in the Sheno town community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper investigates the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and hospitalization among nursing home residents in Norway. While existing evidence shows that nursing home residents were overrepresented among COVID-19-related deaths, suggesting inadequate protection measures, this study argues that the observed overrepresentation in mortality and hospitalization may partly stem from the inherent frailty of this demographic. Using nationwide administrative data, we assessed excess deaths and hospitalization by comparing pandemic-era rates to those of a pre-pandemic cohort. Methods: We compared mortality and hospitalization rates between a pandemic cohort of nursing home residents as of September 2019 (N = 30,052), and a pre-pandemic cohort as of September 2017 (N = 30,429). Both cohorts were followed monthly for two years, beginning in September 2019 and 2017, respectively. This analysis was conducted at the national level and separately for nursing home residents in areas with low, medium, and high SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. Event studies and difference-in-difference models allowed us to separate the impact of the pandemic on mortality and hospitalization from secular and seasonal changes. Results: The pandemic cohort experienced a non-significant 0.07 percentage points (95% confidence interval (CI): − 0.081 to 0.221) increase in all-cause mortality during the 18 months following pandemic onset, compared to the pre-pandemic cohort. Moreover, our findings indicate a substantial reduction in hospitalizations of 0.27 percentage points (95% CI: − 0.464 to − 0.135) and a non-significant decrease of 0.80 percentage points (95% CI: − 2.529 to 0.929) in the proportion of nursing home residents hospitalized before death. The effect on mortality remained consistent across regions with both high and low levels of SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. Conclusions: Our findings indicate no clear evidence of excess all-cause mortality in Norway during the pandemic, neither nationally nor in areas with high infection rates. This suggests that early implementation of nationwide and nursing home-specific infection control measures during the pandemic effectively protected nursing home residents. Furthermore, our results revealed a decrease in hospitalizations, both overall and prior to death, suggesting that nursing homes adhered to national guidelines promoting on-site treatment for residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the transmissibility and spread of infectious diseases, epidemiologists turn to estimates of the instantaneous reproduction number. While many estimation approaches exist, their utility may be limited. Challenges of surveillance data collection, model assumptions that are unverifiable with data alone, and computationally inefficient frameworks are critical limitations for many existing approaches. We propose a discrete spline-based approach that solves a convex optimization problem—Poisson trend filtering—using the proximal Newton method. It produces a locally adaptive estimator for instantaneous reproduction number estimation with heterogeneous smoothness. Our methodology remains accurate even under some process misspecifications and is computationally efficient, even for large-scale data. The implementation is easily accessible in a lightweight R package rtestim. Author summary: Instantaneous reproduction number estimation presents many challenges due to data collection, modelling assumptions, and computational burden. Our motivation is to develop a model that produces accurate estimates, is robust to model misspecification, is straightforward to use, and is computationally efficient, even for large counts and long time periods. We propose a convex optimization model with an ℓ1 trend filtering penalty. It couples accurate estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number with desired smoothness. We solve the optimization using the proximal Newton method, which converges rapidly and is numerically stable. Our software, conveniently available in the R package rtestim, can produce estimates in seconds for incidence sequences with hundreds of observations. These estimates are produced for a sequence of tuning parameters and can be selected using a built-in cross validation procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to formulate a mathematical framework to examine how the Lassa virus spreads in humans of opposite genders. The stability of the model is analyzed at an equilibrium point in the absence of the Lassa fever. The model's effectiveness is evaluated using real-life data, and all the parameters needed to determine the basic reproduction number are estimated. Sensitivity analysis is performed to pinpoint the crucial parameters significantly influencing the spread of the infection. The interaction between threshold parameters and the basic reproduction number is simulated. Control theory is employed to devise and evaluate strategies, such as awareness campaigns, advocating condom usage, and deploying rodenticides to reduce the possibility of virus transmission efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coronavirus has long been considered a global epidemic. It caused the deaths of nearly 7.01 million individuals and caused an economic downturn. The number of verified coronavirus cases is increasing daily, putting the whole human race at danger and putting strain on medical experts to eradicate the disease as rapidly as possible. As a consequence, it is vital to predict the upcoming coronavirus positive patients in order to plan actions in the future. Furthermore, it has been discovered all across the globe that asymptomatic coronavirus patients play a significant part in the disease's transmission. This prompted us to incorporate similar examples in order to accurately forecast trends. A typical strategy for analysing the rate of pandemic infection is to use time-series forecasting technique. This would assist us in developing better decision support systems. To anticipate COVID-19 active cases for a few countries, we recommended a hybrid model utilizing a fuzzy time series (FTS) model mixed with a non-linear growth model. The coronavirus positive case outbreak has been evaluated for Italy, Brazil, India, Germany, Pakistan, and Myanmar through June 5, 2020 in phase-1, and January 15, 2022 in phase-2, and forecasts active cases for the next 26 and 14 days respectively. The proposed framework fitting effect outperforms individual logistic growth and the fuzzy time series techniques, with R-scores of 0.9992 in phase-1 and 0.9784 in phase-2. The proposed model provided in this article may be utilised to comprehend a country's epidemic pattern and assist the government in developing better effective interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis-E virus (HEV), an etiologic agent of acute inflammatory liver disease, is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in South Asia. HEV is considered endemic in Nepal; but data on population-level infection transmission is sparse. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal serosurvey in central Nepal to assess HEV exposure. At each visit, capillary blood samples were collected and analyzed for the presence of anti-HEV IgG antibodies. The study took place between February 2019 and April 2021, with up to 4 visits per participant approximately 6 months apart. Results: We collected 2513 samples from 923 participants aged 0–25 years, finding a seroprevalence of 4.8% and a seroincidence rate of 10.9 per 1000 person-years. Young adults and individuals consuming surface water faced the highest incidence of infection. Geospatial analysis identified potential HEV clusters, suggesting a need for targeted interventions. Significance: Our findings demonstrate that HEV is endemic in Nepal and that the risk of infection increases with age. Author summary: Hepatitis-E virus (HEV) is an infectious cause of acute liver disease and is primarily transmitted through contaminated food and water. It has emerged as a leading cause of acute clinical hepatitis in South Asia. Pregnant women face the highest risk of complications and mortality. To better understand the impact of HEV in Nepal, we conducted a two-year cohort study in the Kathmandu Valley region. We collected dried blood spots from participants every 6 months and tested the samples to detect past and new infections of HEV. Our study, involving 923 individuals, revealed that 4.8% had IgG antibodies against HEV, indicating past exposure. Each year, about 11 in 1000 people between the ages of 1 and 25 years are newly exposed to the virus. The highest infection rates were among young adults and those using untreated surface water. Our study mapped the distribution of HEV, identifying specific areas with higher infection rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The public order and safety (POS) sector remains susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks, as workplace attendance is typically compulsory and close physical contact is often needed. Here, we report on a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak with an attack rate of 39% (9/23), which occurred between 19 and 29 June 2021 among a cohort of new POS recruits participating in a mandatory 18-week training programme in England. Methods The COVID-OUT (COVID-19 Outbreak investigation to Understand Transmission) study team undertook a multidisciplinary outbreak investigation, including viral surface sampling, workplace environmental assessment, participant viral and antibody testing, and questionnaires, at the two associated training facilities between 5 July and 24 August 2021. Results Environmental factors, such as ventilation, were deemed inadequate in some areas of the workplace, with carbon dioxide (CO2) levels exceeding 1,500 ppm on multiple occasions within naturally ventilated classrooms. Activities during safety training required close contact, with some necessitating physical contact, physical exertion, and shouting. Furthermore, most participants reported having physical contact with colleagues (67%) and more than one close work contact daily (97%). Conclusions Our investigation suggests that site- and activity-specific factors likely contributed to the transmission risks within the POS trainee cohort. Potential interventions for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in this POS training context could include implementing regular rapid lateral flow testing, optimizing natural ventilation, using portable air cleaning devices in classrooms, and expanding use of well-fitted FFP2/FFP3 respirators during activities where prolonged close physical contact is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Mpox can cause serious complications and is a public health concern. Family physicians are the first healthcare professionals patients can apply for health. This study aimed to evaluate the level of knowledge of family physicians about mpox. Methods: This prospective, descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted. A survey was conducted between March 14, 2023 and April 14 of 2023 to evaluate the knowledge of mpox among 102 family physicians in Gaziantep, Turkey. The collected data were analyzed to determine physicians' knowledge of the disease, its symptoms, transmission, and treatment options. Results: At the 80% cut-off, 8.8% of family physicians had good knowledge; at the 70% cut-off, 35.3% of physicians had good knowledge. The highest level of knowledge was observed in those working for 5 years or less; the lowest level was observed in those working for 6-15 years (p=0.045). The most correct answer (n=98) was "What is the type of microorganism that causes mpox?". The question with the most incorrect answers (n=90) was "A definitive diagnosis is made using ELISA tests". Conclusion: Family physicians are the first health professionals to access the virus, particularly in cases of community transmission. Identify areas where physicians need additional education and training to better diagnose and treat mpox. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an SIRS model with age structure is proposed for recurrent infectious diseases by incorporating infectious delay and temporary immunity delay. Analysis shows that the disease will eventually disappear when the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 < 1. No matter how the infection delay τ 1 changes, as long as the temporary immunity loss delay τ 2 = 0 , the disease transmission will only be endemic and there will be no periodic oscillations when ℛ 0 > 1. Moreover, the stability and Hopf bifurcation will appear as τ 2 increases from zero. It indicates that the duration of temporary immunity can affect the form of disease transmission within the population. Our numerical simulations verified the correctness of the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that "Isaiah's apocalyptic myth," (Isaiah 26:20) was a cushioning effort amidst the corona-virus (COVID-19) pandemic in Nigeria between March and May 2020. Informed conversations frame myths with unhealthy actions leading to the spread of COVID-19. Despite this, Isaiah's apocalyptic myth led to improved behaviours against COVID-19 in Nigeria within the period under study. We relied on a mixed-method approach of data collection and analysis to draw a relation between the "Isaiah" apocalyptic oracle' and the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria between March and May 2020. This discourse presents ways in which superstitions mitigate the spread of pandemic disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Amid concerns about severe COVID‐19 in patients with autoimmune rheumatic disease (AIRD) during the outbreak, it is crucial to explore behavioural changes, whether healthy or unhealthy, arising from this patient population in response to the changing healthcare environment. Aim: To investigate COVID‐19‐driven behavioural changes in patients with AIRD. Methods: This observational study invited patients who attended the rheumatology clinic of the Korle Bu Teaching Hospital from 1 August 2020 to 1 July 2021, to respond to a survey questionnaire distributed on the patient's WhatsApp platform. Variables observed were changes in patient behaviour and decision‐making related to medication, healthcare service utilisation and clinical advice. Results: Results for 233 patients were analysed in the study, the majority (89.7%) of whom were women. The most significant behavioural changes were a reduction in hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) dosage, adoption of telemedicine for clinical consultation and keen adherence to protective/preventive health measures. Patients also expressed anxiety regarding the risk of contracting COVID‐19 (52.5%), infecting their families (66.5%) and losing income (50.2%) due to the pandemic. Women and students were more likely to engage in self‐isolation/shielding behaviour. Employed participants practised social distancing more, reduced HCQ dosage and had more fear of losing income. Having mixed connective tissue disease is associated with being anxious about the risk of COVID‐19 infection. Conclusion: The COVID‐19 pandemic has resulted in behaviour changes among patients with AIRD. Despite the perceived risk, most of these patients continue to adhere to their prescribed medication regimens, especially maintaining the dosage of traditional immunosuppressive agents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objectives: Helicobacters are gastric and enterohepatic and live in the gut. The role of enterohepatic Helicobacters as intestinal pathogens is uncertain, while stomach Helicobacters are well-known. The prevalence of Helicobacter species in cat feces helps us understand their impact on cat health and human disease transmission. This study used PCR to identify Helicobacter spp. in feces samples from healthy and diarrhoeic cats, independent of the reason. The study also compared intestinal and stomach Helicobacter species. Materials and Methods: PCR analysis was performed on fecal samples from 40 cats, with 20 cats having diarrhea and 20 cats showing no symptoms. The PCR analysis aimed to detect Helicobacter's presence using a method that identifies the bacteria through the 16S rRNA gene. Results: The diarrhoeic group had a greater prevalence of infection (17:9 ratio), with an overall 65% infection rate detected. Cats that were older than 2 years showed a higher incidence of disease. H. canis had the highest occurrence rate (69.2%), followed by H. bilis, H. bizzozeronii, and H. salomonis. Significantly, H. pylori, H. felis, and H. heilmannii were not reported. Conclusion: H. canis was the predominant species found in both healthy and diarrheic cats, indicating the need for more investigation. The detection of the gastric species H. salomonis and H. bizzozeronii further complicates the classification. This highlights the complex nature of Helicobacter infections in cats, emphasizing the need for further investigation to guide the development of preventative measures and treatment techniques for both veterinary and public health purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a novel micro-level and spatially explicit agent-based modeling framework dubbed TranEpiSim to model the spread of infectious diseases through micromobility systems and a baseline population in an urban area. A case study is conducted on the Chicago City public bikesharing system to demonstrate the ability of the model to isolate the role of transportation as a vector and assess the efficacy of the model. Results show that the emergence of viral disease through micromobility transportation is possible, but the overall impact of the system on the disease dynamics in a worst-case scenario, especially with the current size of the system, is rather small. The proposed model offers a comprehensive approach to estimate the impact of micromobility (and more generally, specific transportation modes) on disease spread by considering infections that occur both at destinations and in/on transportation vehicles and infrastructure. The spatial pattern for the risk of exposure shows a higher risk in the central business district and north of it, where most of the shared bike transportation occurs. Because of its intrinsic features, the proposed framework is uniquely placed to assess the efficacy of interventions and make trade-offs between competing scenarios when dealing with epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To identify sexual/sex‐associated risk factors for hepatitis C transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) and visualise behavioural trajectories from 2019 to 2021. Methods: We linked a behavioural survey to a hepatitis C cohort study (NoCo), established in 2019 across six German HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment centres, and performed a case–control analysis. Cases were MSM with recent HCV infection, and controls were matched for HIV status (model 1) or proportions of sexual partners with HIV (model 2). We conducted conditional univariable and multivariable regression analyses. Results: In all, 197 cases and 314 controls completed the baseline questionnaire and could be matched with clinical data. For regression models, we restricted cases to those with HCV diagnosed since 2018 (N = 100). Factors independently associated with case status included sex‐associated rectal bleeding, shared fisting lubricant, anal douching, chemsex, intravenous and intracavernosal injections, with population‐attributable fractions of 88% (model 1) and 85% (model 2). These factors remained stable over time among cases, while sexual partner numbers and group sex decreased during COVID‐19 measures. Conclusions: Sexual/sex‐associated practices leading to blood exposure are key factors in HCV transmission in MSM. Public health interventions should emphasize the importance of blood safety in sexual encounters. Micro‐elimination efforts were temporarily aided by reduced opportunities for sexual encounters during the COVID‐19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Previous population genetic analysis of Opisthorchis viverrini eggs revealed two populations. • Cat- and human-specific populations use different intermediate fish hosts. • There are distinct morphologies in egg, metacercaria, and adult worm stages of O. viverrini. • Our study confirms distinct human- and cat-specific O. viverrini populations. Infection by the zoonotic fish-borne trematode, Opisthorchis viverrini, remains a crucial health issue in Thailand and neighboring countries. Recently, molecular analysis revealed two populations of putative O. viverrini : one found primarily in human hosts ("human-specific" population) and the other primarily in cats ("cat-specific" population). It is unclear how the infective stages (metacercariae) of these different populations circulate among definitive and reservoir hosts in nature. To gain an insight into this, mitochondrial cox 1 and nad 1 gene sequences of metacercariae from fish intermediate hosts were examined. None of 192 metacercariae from cyprinid fish in Lao PDR and Thailand had sequences typical of "cat-specific" O. viverrini , suggesting that cyprinid fish are not the main second intermediate hosts of this population. Interestingly, all 20 O. viverrini -like metacercariae from snakehead fish (Channa striata) shared 99.51–100% sequence identity with eggs from cats naturally infected in a previous study. Hence, we propose a modification of the known transmission dynamics of O. viverrini : consumption of metacercariae within snakehead fish provides another pathway for cats and (occasionally) humans to acquire infection. We also performed morphological comparisons of eggs, metacercariae, and adult flukes (raised in hamsters) of both Opisthorchis populations. The "cat-specific" population has eggs that are narrower and adults that are shorter and wider than in the human-specific population. The metacercaria of the "cat-specific" population is elliptical, while that of the "human-specific" population is oval, occasionally rounded. Our results confirmed that O. viverrini -like metacercariae from snakehead fish are the infective stages of the "cat-specific" fluke. This provides a new insight into the dissemination and transmission of each population in the second intermediate host. The identity of the cat-specific population is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carl Flügge is best known for the promotion of studies demonstrating the transmission of all manner of infections, but particularly tuberculosis, by coughed droplets. But it is seldom recognised that Flügge was also influential in a number of other fields comprising the practice of hygiene. One-hundred years following his death in 1923, we review literature related to the studies of Flügge and his colleagues and students and illustrate the particular emphasis he laid upon the environment within which disease and its transmission might be fostered or prevented, embracing and studying aspects essential to the health of any community ranging from fundamental microbiology in the laboratory to subjects as disparate as housing, clean water supply, nutrition, sanitation, socio-economic circumstances and climate. Very early in his career he promoted breast feeding for the prevention of seasonal gastro-enteritis and later the sheltering of cough as a means of preventing the transmission of infected respiratory droplets, not only as regards tuberculosis, but also concerning all manner of other respiratory infections. By the time of Flügge's death the complexification of available scientific methodologies comprising hygiene made it difficult for any individual to comprehend and study the wide range of hygiene-related subjects such as Flügge did. Carl Flügge was one of the last holistic hygienists and an originator of the study of environmental health as a pillar of hygiene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since March 2020, South Korea has implemented social distancing measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These policies resulted in significant changes in the lifestyle of Korean adults, including spending more time indoors and experiencing increased sedentary time during the pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the combined influence of sedentary lifestyle and the COVID-19 pandemic on obesity rates among adults residing in South Korea. Data were obtained from the 2018–2020 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). Multiple logistic regression was used to analyze the synergistic effects of a sedentary lifestyle and COVID-19 on obesity. The prevalence of sedentary lifestyles among the participants increased from 30.4% pre-COVID-19 to 36.6% during the pandemic. Furthermore, the obesity rates were raised independently by COVID-19 (OR: 1.16, 95% CI 1.04–1.30) and by a sedentary lifestyle (OR = 1.17, 95% CI 1.04–1.31). A synergistic effect of a sedentary lifestyle and COVID-19 on obesity was identified (OR: 1.57, 95% CI 1.30–1.85). COVID-19 and a sedentary lifestyle significantly increased the risk of obesity in South Korean adults. Moreover, the combined synergistic effects of these risk factors were too substantial to be disregarded by merely summing their individual effects on obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supplemental feeding of wild ungulates has long been and remains a common practice across Europe and North America. Yet by drawing animals together, supplemental feeding can have unintended, negative effects on individual species and broader ecological processes. These include increased risk of disease transmission, intraspecific and interspecific competition, and predation, which are of management concern for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the southeastern United States given the arrival of nonnative wild pigs (Sus scrofa) and coyotes (Canis latrans). We conducted a field experiment between March and July of 2021 to assess the effects of supplemental feeding on spatiotemporal activity patterns of deer and wild pigs at wildlife feeders, and space use of coyotes in the Piedmont region of South Carolina, USA. We observed support for our hypothesis that interspecific competition through increased visitation by larger groups of competitor species reduces use of foraging sites by other subordinate ungulates, where feeders highly visited by wild pigs were rarely visited by deer. While adult deer and wild pigs generally did not shift their temporal activity patterns at feeders, juvenile temporal activity shifted to more frequent visits of feeders during the night, supporting our hypothesis that supplemental feed could increase risk to predator exposure, as coyotes tend to be active during crepuscular hours. Our findings suggest that supplemental feed put out to encourage deer activity could actually deter deer if wild pigs occupy that area, and has potential negative demographic effects if juveniles are at increased risk of predation. Collectively, based on our data, we do not recommend supplemental feeding in the southeastern United States where white‐tailed deer, coyotes, and wild pigs co‐occur. More broadly, given how widespread the legal use of supplemental feed remains across the United States, we encourage landowners and policymakers to consider the full suite of potential direct and indirect, short‐term and long‐term negative impacts supplemental feeding can have on both target and nontarget wildlife populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current methods for combatting infectious diseases are largely limited to the prevention of infection, enhancing host immunity (via vaccination), and administration of small molecules to slow the growth of or kill pathogens (e.g. antimicrobials). Beyond efforts to deter the rise of antimicrobial resistance, little consideration is given to pathogen evolution. Natural selection will favor different levels of virulence under different circumstances. Experimental studies and a wealth of theoretical work have identified many likely evolutionary determinants of virulence. Some of these, such as transmission dynamics, are amenable to modification by clinicians and public health practitioners. In this article, we provide a conceptual overview of virulence, followed by an analysis of modifiable evolutionary determinants of virulence including vaccinations, antibiotics, and transmission dynamics. Finally, we discuss both the importance and limitations of taking an evolutionary approach to reducing pathogen virulence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The list of standard abbreviations for JDS is available at adsa.org/jds-abbreviations-24. Nonstandard abbreviations are available in the Notes. Implementing biosecurity protocols is necessary to reduce the spread of disease on dairy farms. In Ontario biosecurity implementation is variable among farms, and the barriers to implementing biosecurity are unknown. Thirty-five semistructured interviews were conducted between July 2022 and January 2023 with dairy producers (n = 17) and veterinarians (n = 18). Participants also completed a demographic survey. Thematic analysis was performed with constructivist and grounded theory paradigms. Thematic coding was done inductively using NVivo software. Dairy producers' understanding of the definition of biosecurity varied, with all understanding that it was to prevent the spread of disease. Furthermore, the most common perception was that biosecurity prevented the spread of disease onto the farm. Both veterinarians and producers stated that closed herds were one of the most important biosecurity protocols. Barriers to biosecurity implementation included a lack of resources, internal and external business influencers, individual perceptions of biosecurity, and a lack of industry initiative. Understanding the barriers producers face provides veterinarians with the chance to tailor their communication to ensure barriers are reduced or for other industry members to reduce the barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During COVID and lockdown, many prisoners have not only been affected by infection transmission in crowded and ill-equipped institutions, they have also been separated from a range of supports, including loss of family and professional supports and support for prisoners with addiction and/or mental health problems has been disrupted. This paper reports on evidence of how peer-based recovery organizations have attempted to mitigate these adverse effects, based on a case study of one prison in the North-West of England, using a range of routine reporting data and original research data. The paper shows how prison-based peer recovery support has not only continued through lockdown but grown both in the prison and in continuing care on release. The key conclusion is that Lived Experience Recovery Organizations (LEROs) have a vital role to play in offering continuing care to prison populations both to support early recovery and to sustain change around release back into the community, in COVID but also more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synaptic excitation and inhibition are essential for neuronal communication. However, the variables that regulate synaptic excitation and inhibition in the intact brain remain largely unknown. Here, we examined how spike transmission and suppression between principal cells (PCs) and interneurons (INTs) are modulated by activity history, brain state, cell type, and somatic distance between presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons by applying cross‐correlogram analyses to datasets recorded from the dorsal hippocampus and medial entorhinal cortex (MEC) of 11 male behaving and sleeping Long Evans rats. The strength, temporal delay, and brain‐state dependency of the spike transmission and suppression depended on the subregions/layers. The spike transmission probability of PC–INT excitatory pairs that showed short‐term depression versus short‐term facilitation was higher in CA1 and lower in CA3. Likewise, the intersomatic distance affected the proportion of PC–INT excitatory pairs that showed short‐term depression and facilitation in the opposite manner in CA1 compared with CA3. The time constant of depression was longer, while that of facilitation was shorter in MEC than in CA1 and CA3. During sharp‐wave ripples, spike transmission showed a larger gain in the MEC than in CA1 and CA3. The intersomatic distance affected the spike transmission gain during sharp‐wave ripples differently in CA1 versus CA3. A subgroup of MEC layer 3 (EC3) INTs preferentially received excitatory inputs from and inhibited MEC layer 2 (EC2) PCs. The EC2 PC–EC3 INT excitatory pairs, most of which showed short‐term depression, exhibited higher spike transmission probabilities than the EC2 PC–EC2 INT and EC3 PC–EC3 INT excitatory pairs. EC2 putative stellate cells exhibited stronger spike transmission to and received weaker spike suppression from EC3 INTs than EC2 putative pyramidal cells. This study provides detailed comparisons of monosynaptic interaction dynamics in the hippocampal–entorhinal loop, which may help to elucidate circuit operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]