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Introduction: Using risk stratification to determine eligibility for cancer screening is likely to improve the efficiency of screening programmes by targeting resources towards those most likely to benefit. We aimed to explore the implications of this approach from a societal perspective by understanding public views on the most acceptable stratification strategies. Methods: We conducted three online community juries with 9 or 10 participants in each. Participants were purposefully sampled by age (40–79 years), sex, ethnicity, social grade and English region. On the first day, participants were informed of the potential benefits and harms of cancer screening and the implications of different ways of introducing stratification using scenarios based on phenotypic and genetic risk scores. On the second day, participants deliberated to reach a verdict on the research question, ‘Which approach(es) to inviting people to screening are acceptable, and under what circumstances?’ Deliberations and feedback were recorded and analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Across the juries, the principle of risk stratification was generally considered to be an acceptable approach for determining eligibility for screening. Disregarding increasing capacity, the participants considered it to enable efficient resource allocation to high‐risk individuals and could see how it might help to save lives. However, there were concerns regarding fair implementation, particularly how the risk assessment would be performed at scale and how people at low risk would be managed. Some favoured using the most accurate risk prediction model whereas others thought that certain risk factors should be prioritized (particularly factors considered as non‐modifiable and relatively stable, such as genetics and family history). Transparently justifying the programme and public education about cancer risk emerged as important contributors to acceptability. Conclusion: Using risk stratification to determine eligibility for cancer screening was acceptable to informed members of the public, particularly if it included risk factors they considered fair and when communicated transparently. Patient or Public Contribution: Two patient and public involvement representatives were involved throughout this study. They were not involved in synthesizing the results but contributed to producing study materials, co‐facilitated the community juries and commented on the interpretation of the findings and final report.

Funder: Manchester Cancer Research Centre, Funder: East of England Clinical Academic Reserve, In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that women at moderate or high risk of breast cancer be offered risk-reducing medication and enhanced breast screening/surveillance. In June 2022, NICE withdrew a statement recommending assessment of risk in primary care only when women present with concerns. This shift to the proactive assessment of risk substantially changes the role of primary care, in effect paving the way for a primary care-based screening programme to identify those at moderate or high risk of breast cancer. In this article, we review the literature surrounding proactive breast cancer risk assessment within primary care against the consolidated framework for screening. We find that risk assessment for women under 50 years currently satisfies many of the standard principles for screening. Most notably, there are large numbers of women at moderate or high risk currently unidentified, risk models exist that can identify those women with reasonable accuracy, and management options offer the opportunity to reduce breast cancer incidence and mortality in that group. However, there remain a number of uncertainties and research gaps, particularly around the programme/system requirements, that need to be addressed before these benefits can be realised.

Background Positive Choices is a whole-school social marketing intervention to promote sexual health among secondary school students. Intervention comprises school health promotion council involving staff and students coordinating delivery; student survey to inform local tailoring; teacher-delivered classroom curriculum; student-run campaigns; parent information; and review of sexual/reproductive health services to inform improvements. This trial builds on an optimisation/pilot RCT study which met progression criteria, plus findings from another pilot RCT of the Project Respect school-based intervention to prevent dating and relationship violence which concluded such work should be integrated within Positive Choices. Young people carry a disproportionate burden of adverse sexual health; most do not report competence at first sex. Relationships and sex education in schools can contribute to promoting sexual health but effects are small, inconsistent and not sustained. Such work needs to be supplemented by ‘whole-school’ (e.g. student campaigns, sexual health services) and ‘social marketing’ (harnessing commercial marketing to social ends) approaches for which there is good review-level evidence but not from the UK. Methods We will conduct a cluster RCT across 50 schools (minimum 6440, maximum 8500 students) allocated 1:1 to intervention/control assessing outcomes at 33 months. Our primary outcome is non-competent first sex. Secondary outcomes are non-competent last sex, age at sexual debut, non-use of contraception at first and last sex among those reporting heterosexual intercourse, number of sexual partners, dating and relationship violence, sexually transmitted infections, and pregnancy and unintended pregnancy for girls and initiation of pregnancy for boys. We will recruit 50 school and undertake baseline surveys by March 2022; implement the intervention over the 2022–2024 school years and conduct the economic and process evaluations by July 2024; undertake follow-up surveys by December 2024; complete analyses, all patient and policy involvement and draft the study report by March 2025; and engage in knowledge exchange from December 2024. Discussion This trial is one of a growing number focused on whole-school approaches to public health in schools. The key scientific output will be evidence about the effectiveness, costs and potential scalability and transferability of Positive Choices. Trial registration ISRCTN No: ISRCTN16723909. Trial registration summary: Date:. Funded by: National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research Programme (NIHR131487). Sponsor: LSHTM. Public/scientific contact: Chris Bonell. Public title: Positive Choices trial. Scientific title: Phase-III RCT of Positive Choices: a whole-school social marketing intervention to promote sexual health and reduce health inequalities. Countries of recruitment: UK. Intervention: Positive Choices. Inclusion criteria: Students in year 8 (age 12–13 years) at baseline deemed competent by schools to participate in secondary schools excluding pupil referral units, schools for those with special educational needs and disabilities, and schools with ‘inadequate’ Ofsted inspections. Study type: interventional study with superiority phase III cluster RCT design. Enrollment: 1/9/21-31/3/22. Sample size: 50 schools and 6440–8500 students. Recruitment status: pending. Primary outcome: binary measure of non-competent first sex. Secondary outcomes: non-competent last sex; age at sexual debut; non-use of contraception at first and last sex; number of sexual partners; dating and relationship violence (DRV) victimisation; sexually transmitted infections; pregnancy and unintended pregnancy for girls and initiation of pregnancy for boys using adapted versions of the RIPPLE measures. Ethics review: LSHTM research ethics committee (reference 26411). Completion data: 1/3/25. Sharing statement: Data will be made available after the main trial analyses have been completed on reasonable request from researchers with ethics approval and a clear protocol. Amendments to the protocol will be communicated to the investigators, sponsor, funder, research ethics committee, trial registration and the journal publishing the protocol. Amendments affecting participants’ experience of the intervention or important amendments affecting the overall design and conduct of the trial will be communicated to participants.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that centralising surgical treatment for some cancers can improve patient outcomes, but there is limited evidence of the impact on costs or health-related quality of life. OBJECTIVES: We report the results of a cost-utility analysis of the RESPECT-21 study using difference-in-differences, which investigated the reconfiguration of specialist surgery services for four cancers in an area of London, compared to the Rest of England (ROE). METHODS: Electronic health records data were obtained from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service for patients diagnosed with one of the four cancers of interest between 2012 and 2017. The analysis for each tumour type used a short-term decision tree followed by a 10-year Markov model with 6-monthly cycles. Costs were calculated by applying National Health Service (NHS) Reference Costs to patient-level hospital resource use and supplemented with published data. Cancer-specific preference-based health-related quality-of-life values were obtained from the literature to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Total costs and QALYs were calculated before and after the reconfiguration, in the London Cancer (LC) area and in ROE, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to illustrate the uncertainty in the results. RESULTS: At a threshold of £30,000/QALY gained, LC reconfiguration of prostate cancer surgery services had a 79% probability of having been cost-effective compared to non-reconfigured services using difference-in-differences. The oesophago-gastric, bladder and renal reconfigurations had probabilities of 62%, 49% and 12%, respectively, of being cost-effective at the same threshold. Costs and QALYs per surgical patient increased over time for all cancers across both regions to varying degrees. Bladder cancer surgery had the smallest patient numbers and changes in costs, and QALYs were not significant. The largest improvement in outcomes was in renal cancer surgery in ROE, making the relative renal improvements in LC appear modest, and the probability of the LC reconfiguration having been cost-effective low. CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer reconfigurations had the highest probability of being cost-effective. It is not clear, however, whether the prostate results can be considered in isolation, given the reconfigurations occurred simultaneously with other system changes, and healthcare delivery in the NHS is highly networked and collaborative. Routine collection of quality-of-life measures such as the EQ-5D-5L would have improved the analysis.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of the ‘Getting it Right First Time’ (GIRFT) national improvement programme in orthopaedics, which started in 2012.DesignMixed-methods study comprising statistical analysis of linked national datasets (National Joint Registry; Hospital Episode Statistics; Patient-Reported Outcomes); economic analysis and qualitative case studies in six National Health Service (NHS) Trusts.SettingNHS elective orthopaedic surgery in England.Participants736 088 patients who underwent primary hip or knee replacement at 126 NHS Trusts between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2018, plus 50 NHS staff.InterventionImprovement bundle including ‘deep dive’ visits by senior clinician to NHS Trusts, informed by bespoke set of routine performance data, to discuss how improvements could be made locally.Main outcome measuresNumber of procedures conducted by low volume surgeons; use of uncemented hip implants in patients >65; arthroscopy in year prior to knee replacement; hospital length of stay; emergency readmissions within 30 days; revision surgery within 1 year; health-related quality of life and functional status.ResultsNational trends demonstrated substantial improvements beginning prior to GIRFT. Between 2012 and 2018, there were reductions in procedures by low volume surgeons (ORs (95% CI) hips 0.58 (0.53 to 0.63), knees 0.77 (0.72 to 0.83)); uncemented hip prostheses in >65 s (OR 0.56 (0.51 to 0.61)); knee arthroscopies before surgery (OR 0.48 (0.41 to 0.56)) and mean length of stay (hips −0.90 (−1.00 to -0.81), knees −0.74 days (−0.82 to −0.66)). The additional impact of visits was mixed and comprised an overall economic saving of £431 848 between 2012 and 2018, but this was offset by the costs of the visits. Staff reported that GIRFT’s influence ranged from procurement changes to improved regional collaboration.ConclusionNationally, we found substantial improvements in care, but the specific contribution of GIRFT cannot be reliably estimated due to other concurrent initiatives. Our approach enabled additional analysis of the discrete impact of GIRFT visits.

INTRODUCTION: The cost-effectiveness and long-term health impact of behavioural weight management programmes depends on post-treatment weight-loss maintenance. Growing evidence suggests that interventions using acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) could improve long-term weight management. We developed an ACT-based, guided self-help intervention to support adults who have recently completed a behavioural weight loss programme. This study will assess the feasibility and acceptability of this type of intervention and findings will inform the development of a full-scale trial. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a pragmatic, randomised, single-blind, parallel group, two-arm, feasibility study with an embedded process evaluation. We will recruit and randomise 60 adults who have recently completed a behavioural weight loss programme to the ACT-based intervention or standard care, using a computer-generated sequence with 2:1 allocation stratified by diabetes status and sex. Baseline and 6-month measurements will be completed using online questionnaires. Qualitative interviews will be conducted with a subsample of participants and coaches about their experiences at 3 (mid-intervention) and 6 (postintervention) months. Feasibility and acceptability of the intervention, and a full-scale trial will be assessed using a number of outcomes, including adherence to, and engagement with the intervention, recruitment and retention rates, proportion of missing data for each outcome measure, participants' experiences of the intervention and study, and coaches' experiences of delivering intervention support. Quantitative and qualitative findings will be integrated and summarised to contribute to the interpretation of the main feasibility evaluation findings. Value of information methods will be used to estimate the decision uncertainty associated with the intervention's cost-effectiveness and determine the value of a definitive trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was received from Cambridge South Research Ethics Committee on 15/03/2021 (21/EE/0024). This protocol (V.2) was approved on 19 April 2021. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and communicated to other stakeholders as appropriate. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN12685964., This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (RP-PG-0216-20010). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Although the communication pathways of Newborn Bloodspot Screening (NBS) are a delicate task, these pathways vary across different conditions and are often not evidence-based. The ReSPoND interventions were co-designed by healthcare professionals alongside parents who had received a positive NBS result for their child. To calculate the cost of these co-designed strategies and the existing communication pathways, we interviewed 71 members of the clinical and laboratory staff of the 13 English NBS laboratories in the English National Health Service. Therefore, a scenario analysis was used to compare the cost of the existing communication pathways to the co-designed strategies delivered by (i) home-visits and (ii) telecommunications. On average, the existing communication pathway cost £447.08 per infant (range: £237.12 to £628.51) or £234,872.75 (£3635.99 to £1,932,986.23) nationally. Implementing the new interventions relying on home-visits exclusively would cost on average £521.62 (£312.84 to £646.39) per infant and £297,816.03 (£4506.37 to £2,550,284.64) nationally, or £447.19 (£235.79 to £552.03) and £231,342.40 (£3923.7 to £1,922,192.22) if implemented via teleconsultations, respectively. The new strategies delivered are not likely to require additional resources compared with current practice. Further research is needed to investigate whether this investment represents good value for money for the NHS budget.

Funder: Wellcome Trust, OBJECTIVES: Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) symptoms are experienced by an estimated 11% of UK adults, and symptoms have major impacts on quality of life. Data from UK and elsewhere suggest high economic burden of CRS, but detailed cost information and economic analyses regarding surgical pathway are lacking. This paper estimates healthcare costs for patients receiving surgery for CRS in England. DESIGN: Observational retrospective study examining cost of healthcare of patients receiving CRS surgery. SETTING: Linked electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics databases in England. PARTICIPANTS: A phenotyping algorithm using medical ontology terms identified 'definite' CRS cases who received CRS surgery. Patients were registered with a general practice in England. Data covered the period 1997-2016. A cohort of 13 462 patients had received surgery for CRS, with 9056 (67%) having confirmed nasal polyps. OUTCOME MEASURES: Information was extracted on numbers and types of primary care prescriptions and consultations, and inpatient and outpatient hospital investigations and procedures. Resource use was costed using published sources. RESULTS: Total National Health Service costs in CRS surgery patients were £2173 over 1 year including surgery. Total costs per person-quarter were £1983 in the quarter containing surgery, mostly comprising surgical inpatient care costs (£1902), and around £60 per person-quarter in the 2 years before and after surgery, of which half were outpatient costs. Outpatient and primary care costs were low compared with the peak in inpatient costs at surgery. The highest outpatient expenditure was on CT scans, peaking in the quarter preceding surgery. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first study of costs to the English healthcare system for patients receiving surgery for CRS. The total aggregate costs provide a further impetus for trials to evaluate the relative benefit of surgical intervention.

BackgroundThere was a national roll out of ‘COVID Virtual Wards’ (CVW) during England’s second COVID-19 wave (Autumn 2020 – Spring 2021). These services used remote pulse oximetry monitoring for COVID-19 patients following discharge from hospital. A key aim was to enable rapid detection of patient deterioration. It was anticipated that the services would support early discharge and avoid readmissions, reducing pressure on beds. This study is an evaluation of the impact of the CVW services on hospital activity.MethodsUsing retrospective patient-level hospital admissions data, we built multivariate models to analyse the relationship between the implementation of CVW services and hospital activity outcomes: length of COVID-19 related stays and subsequent COVID-19 readmissions within 28 days. We used data from more than 98% of recorded COVID-19 hospital stays in England, where the patient was discharged alive between mid-August 2020 and late February 2021.FindingsWe found a longer length of stay for COVID-19 patients discharged from hospitals where a CVW was available, when compared to patients discharged from hospitals where there was no CVW (adjusted IRR 1·05, 95% CI 1·01 to 1·09). We found no evidence of a relationship between the availability of CVW and subsequent rates of readmission for COVID-19 (adjusted OR 0·95, 95% CI 0·89 to 1·02).InterpretationWe found no evidence of early discharges or reduced readmissions associated with the roll out of COVID Virtual Wards across England. Our analysis made pragmatic use of national-scale hospital data, but it is possible that a lack of specific data (for example, on which patients were enrolled) may have meant that true impacts, especially at a local level, were not ultimately discernible.FundingThis is independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research, Health Services & Delivery Research programme and NHSEI.Research in contextEvidence before this studyPost-hospital virtual wards have been found to have a positive impact on patient outcomes when focussed on patients with specific diseases, for example those with heart disease. There has been less evidence of impact for more heterogenous groups of patients. While these services have been rolled out at scale in England, there has been little evidence thus far that post-hospital virtual wards (using pulse oximetry monitoring) have helped to reduce the length of stay of hospitalised COVID-19 patients, or rates of subsequent readmissions for COVID-19.Added value of this studyThis national-scale study provides evidence that the rollout of post-hospital discharge virtual ward services for COVID-19 patients in England did not reduce lengths of stay in hospital, or rates of readmission.Implications of all the available evidenceWhile there is currently an absence of evidence of positive impacts for COVID-19 patients discharged to a virtual ward, our study emphasises the need for quality data to be collected as part of future service implementation.

Background: Rivaroxaban and apixaban are the most widely used nonvitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE). This meta-analysis evaluates the effectiveness and safety of both NOACs versus standard of care (SoC) in real-world practice. Methods: Real-world evidence (RWE) studies were identified through a systematic literature review conducted between January 2012 and July 2020, using Embase, MEDLINE, and the websites of cardiological, hematological, and oncological associations. Eligible RWE studies recruited adult patients with deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism and presented a comparison between rivaroxaban and apixaban versus SoC, consisting either of vitamin K antagonists, heparins, or combinations thereof. Hazard ratios (HRs) for the comparison between NOACs and SoC were extracted from the relevant studies or estimated based on the reported binary data. The between-treatment contrasts were reported as HRs with associated 95% confidence intervals. Results: A total of 65 RWE studies were identified and considered relevant for the meta-analysis. Compared with SoC, both rivaroxaban and apixaban were associated with reduced risks of recurrent VTE and a lower rate of major bleeding events. Patients treated with rivaroxaban were at a lower risk of all-cause death compared with those receiving SoC (HR = 0.56 [0.39-0.80]), while evidence for apixaban from the identified studies was insufficient to demonstrate a statistically significant change in mortality (HR = 0.66 [0.30-1.47]). Conclusion: This analysis indicates that in real-world practice, rivaroxaban and apixaban are associated with a lower risk of recurrent VTE and major bleeding events compared with SoC. Survival benefit in patients treated with rivaroxaban was also observed.

Although surgical resection has been considered the only curative option for colorectal liver metastases, thermal ablation has recently been suggested as an alternative curative treatment. There have been no adequately powered trials comparing surgery with thermal ablation.Main objective - to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of thermal ablation versus liver resection surgery in high surgical risk patients who would be eligible for liver resection. Pilot study objectives - to assess the feasibility of recruitment (through qualitative study), to assess the quality of ablations and liver resection surgery to determine acceptable standards for the main trial and to centrally review the reporting of computed tomography scan findings relating to ablation and outcomes and recurrence rate in both arms.A prospective, international (UK and the Netherlands), multicentre, open, pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled non-inferiority trial with a 1-year internal pilot study.Tertiary liver, pancreatic and gallbladder (hepatopancreatobiliary) centres in the UK and the Netherlands.Adults with a specialist multidisciplinary team diagnosis of colorectal liver metastases who are at high surgical risk because of their age, comorbidities or tumour burden and who would be suitable for liver resection or thermal ablation.Thermal ablation conducted as per local policy (but centres were encouraged to recruit within Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe guidelines) versus surgical liver resection performed as per centre protocol.Pilot study - patients' and clinicians' acceptability of the trial to assist in optimisation of recruitment. Primary outcome - disease-free survival at 2 years post randomisation. Secondary outcomes - overall survival, timing and site of recurrence, additional therapy after treatment failure, quality of life, complications, length of hospital stay, costs, trial acceptability, and disease-free survival measured from end of intervention. It was planned that 5-year survival data would be documented through record linkage. Randomisation was performed by minimisation incorporating a random element, and this was a non-blinded study.In the pilot study over 1 year, a total of 366 patients with colorectal liver metastases were screened and 59 were considered eligible. Only nine participants were randomised. The trial was stopped early and none of the planned statistical analyses was performed. The key issues inhibiting recruitment included fewer than anticipated patients eligible for both treatments, misconceptions about the eligibility criteria for the trial, surgeons' preference for one of the treatments ('lack of clinical equipoise' among some of the surgeons in the centre) with unconscious bias towards surgery, patients' preference for one of the treatments, and lack of dedicated research nurses for the trial.Recruitment feasibility was not demonstrated during the pilot stage of the trial; therefore, the trial closed early. In future, comparisons involving two very different treatments may benefit from an initial feasibility study or a longer period of internal pilot study to resolve these difficulties. Sufficient time should be allowed to set up arrangements through National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Research Networks.Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52040363.This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full inIn about 50% of people with bowel cancer, cancer spreads to the liver (colorectal liver metastases) within 5 years of detection and treatment. Liver resection (i.e. surgical removal of a portion of the liver) is the standard treatment in people below 70 years of age who are otherwise well, provided that the liver cancer is confined to a limited part of the liver. Such patients are considered ‘low-risk’ patients. Older patients and those with major medical problems or extensive cancers are considered ‘high-risk’ patients, as they are at a higher risk of developing complications following liver resection. Thermal ablation destroys the liver cancers using a needle that heats the cancer deposits until they are destroyed. There is significant uncertainty as to whether or not ablation can offer equivalent survival compared with surgery for ‘high-risk’ patients. We planned and conducted a randomised controlled trial comparing ablation with surgery to resolve this uncertainty. In this trial, some patients received ablation and others received surgery. The treatment was allocated at random with neither patients nor the study organisers choosing the treatment. The trial had an internal pilot (i.e. a smaller version of the full trial to resolve any ‘teething problems’ and ensure that a sufficient number of participants can be included in the full trial). Only nine patients were recruited in the 1-year internal pilot, compared with the anticipated recruitment of 45 patients. Therefore, the trial closed early as a result of poor recruitment, and the uncertainty about the best treatment for high-risk patients with colorectal liver metastases continues. The main reasons for the poor recruitment included fewer than anticipated eligible participants, clinicians’ unconscious bias towards surgery, and patients’ preference for one treatment or the other. In the future, comparisons involving two very different treatments may benefit from a feasibility study or a longer period of pilot study to resolve any difficulties.

Around 20% of 1- to 4-month-old infants cry for long periods without an apparent reason. Traditionally, this was attributed to gastrointestinal disorder ('colic'), but evidence shows that just 5% of infants cry a lot because of organic disturbances; in most cases, the crying is attributable to normal developmental processes. This has led to a focus on the impact of the crying on parents. Parental vulnerabilities influence how parents evaluate and respond to the crying and predict adverse outcomes. By developing evidence-based services that support parents, this study was designed to take the first steps towards national health services that enhance the coping and well-being of parents whose babies excessively cry. Related aims were to improve these infants' outcomes and how NHS money is spent.To develop a novel intervention package to support parents of excessively crying infants and to examine the feasibility of delivering and evaluating it in the NHS.Stage 1 of this study aimed to (1) complete a literature review to identify example support materials, (2) obtain parents' guidance on the support needed when a baby cries excessively, together with their evaluation of the example materials, and (3) develop a support package based on the results. Stage 2 aimed to (1) recruit 60 parents whose babies were currently excessively crying, (2) assess parents' and NHS professionals' willingness to complete a study of the support package, (3) measure the use and evaluation of the package components, (4) estimate the package component costs and (5) provide evidence on the feasibility and methods for a large-scale trial.Primary health care.Stage 1: 20 parents of previously excessively crying infants and 55 health visitors (HVs) or specialist community public health nurses (SCPHNs). Stage 2: 57 parents of currently excessively crying infants and 124 HVs/SCPHNs.The support package included a website, a printed booklet and a programme of cognitive-behavioural therapy-based sessions delivered to parents by a qualified practitioner.(1) Demographic data, (2) figures for parents' use of the package components and continuation in the study, (3) parents' and HVs'/SCPHNs' ratings of the package components and suitability for NHS use, (4) questionnaire measures of parental well-being and infant health and (5) costs.Most parents (95%) accessed the website or printed materials and half (51%) attended the practitioner sessions. All 52 parents and 85% of HVs/SCPHNs providing data would support the inclusion of the package in the NHS. It was associated with reduced parental frustration, anxiety, depression, reported infant crying and contacts with health professionals and increased knowledge about crying. Methods for a full trial and figures for the cost of excessive infant crying for the NHS and each package element were identified.No control group was included. Most of the recruited parents were white, well educated and in stable relationships.Parents and HVs/SCPHNs recognise the need for NHS provisions that support parents of excessively crying babies and consider the materials developed to meet that need. A full-scale randomised controlled trial is feasible and desirable.Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN84975637.This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full inThis study is a first step in developing evidence-based NHS services to support parents whose babies cry excessively.Around one-fifth of babies cry a lot without an apparent reason. This ‘excessive’ infant crying used to be known as ‘colic’ and was blamed on indigestion pain. Recent evidence suggests that only 5% of infants taken to the doctor because of excessive crying are actually unwell. The crying peak and ‘unsoothable’ crying bouts that alarm parents in early infancy usually stop by themselves once the baby is 5 months old and are probably attributable to normal developmental processes. Although most babies who cry a lot are well, the crying can distress parents and lead to poor consequences; these include overfeeding, stopping breastfeeding, maternal depression, poor parent–child relationships, problems with child development and, in extreme cases, infant abuse. By developing NHS services that support parents to manage excessive infant crying, this project aimed to improve parents’ well-being, long-term outcomes and how NHS money is spent.In stage 1 of the study (development of an intervention package), the research evidence was reviewed and parents whose babies previously cried excessively and NHS health visitors (HVs) and specialist community public health nurses (SCPHNs) were involved to develop evidence-based support materials. These included a website, a printed booklet and support sessions with a qualified practitioner. In stage 2 (a feasibility study of package implementation in the NHS), HVs/SCPHNs helped to recruit 57 parents whose babies were currently excessively crying. On average, these babies cried for 6.9 hours per day. Most parents accessed the website or booklet and half attended the practitioner sessions. The package was associated with reduced parental anxiety and depression, and all 52 parents and 85% of HVs/SCPHNs who gave an opinion considered that it should be included in the NHS. Findings for the cost of each package element and suggestions for future services were provided.

BackgroundRemote home monitoring of people testing positive for COVID-19 using pulse oximetry was implemented across England during the Winter of 2020/21 to identify falling blood oxygen saturation levels at an early stage. This was hypothesised to enable earlier hospital admission, reduce the need for intensive care and improve survival. This study is an evaluation of the clinical effectiveness of the pre-hospital monitoring programme, COVID oximetry @home (CO@h).MethodsWe analysed relationships at a geographical area level between the extent to which people aged 65 or over were enrolled onto the programme and outcomes over the period between November 2020 to February 2021FindingsFor every 10% increase in coverage of the programme, mortality was reduced by 2% (95% confidence interval: -4% to 1%), admissions increased by 3% (-1% to 7%), in-hospital mortality fell by 3% (-8% to 3%) and lengths of stay increased by 1·8% (-1·2% to 4·9%). None of these results are statistically significant.InterpretationThere are several possible explanations for our findings. One is that the CO@h did not have the hypothesised impact. Another is that the low rates of enrolment and incomplete data in many areas reduced the chances of detecting any impact that may have existed. Also, CO@h has been implemented in many different ways across the country and these may have had varying levels of effect.FundingThis is independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research, Health Services & Delivery Research programme (RSET Project no. 16/138/17; BRACE Project no. 16/138/31) and NHSEI. NJF is an NIHR Senior Investigator. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health and Social Care.Research in ContextEvidence before this studyExisting evidence before this study and the search strategy used to obtain this evidence has been published previously by the authors in a systematic review. Previous quantitative studies have assessed remote oximetry monitoring services for COVID-19 patients mostly at individual sites and focussed on their safety. However, their effectiveness has been little studied. This may reflect the challenges of identifying reliable counterfactuals during a rapidly evolving pandemic.Added value of this studyThis study is part of a wider mixed methods evaluation that followed the rapid implementation of remote monitoring across the English NHS during the Winter of 2020/21. It adds to the evidence of the effectiveness of such programmes at a national level.Implications of the available evidenceThere is some existing evidence that remote monitoring of COVID-19 patients can be locally effective although we have not been able to replicate such findings at a wider level. Missing data and lower coverage of the service than expected may have influenced our results, and the effectiveness of some local programmes could have been lost among the analysis of national data. Future implementation requires better data collection strategies which could be focussed within fewer local areas, and effective learning from areas that have achieved better population coverage.

Introduction Improving care coordination for people with rare conditions may help to reduce burden on patients and carers and improve the care that patients receive. We recently developed a taxonomy of different ways of coordinating care for rare conditions. It is not yet known which models of care coordination are appropriate in different situations. This study aimed to: (1) explore what types of care coordination may be appropriate in different situations, and (2) use these findings to develop hypothetical models of care coordination for rare conditions. Methods To explore appropriateness of different types of care coordination, we conducted interviews (n = 30), four focus groups (n = 22) and two workshops (n = 27) with patients, carers, healthcare professionals, commissioners, and charity representatives. Participants were asked about preferences, benefits and challenges, and the factors influencing coordination. Thematic analysis was used to develop hypothetical models of care coordination. Models were refined following feedback from workshop participants. Results Stakeholders prefer models of care that: are nationally centralised or a hybrid of national and local care, involve professionals collaborating to deliver care, have clear roles and responsibilities outlined (including administrative, coordinator, clinical and charity roles), provide access to records and offer flexible appointments (in terms of timing and mode). Many factors influenced coordination, including those relating to the patient (e.g., condition complexity, patient’s location and ability to coordinate their own care), the healthcare professional (e.g., knowledge and time), the healthcare environment (e.g., resources) and societal factors (e.g., availability of funding). We developed and refined ten illustrative hypothetical models of care coordination for rare conditions. Conclusion Findings underline that different models of care coordination may be appropriate in different situations. It is possible to develop models of care coordination which are tailored to the individual in context. Findings may be used to facilitate planning around which models of care coordination may be appropriate in different services or circumstances. Findings may also be used by key stakeholders (e.g. patient organisations, clinicians and service planners) as a decision-making tool.

ObjectiveTo implement and evaluate co-designed interventions to improve communication of positive newborn bloodspot screening results and make recommendations for future research and practice.DesignA process evaluation underpinned by Normalisation Process Theory.SettingThree National Health Service provider organisations in England.ParticipantsTwenty-four healthcare professionals (7 newborn screening laboratory staff and 24 clinicians) and 18 parents were interviewed.InterventionsThree co-designed interventions were implemented in practice: standardised laboratory proformas, communication checklists and an email/letter template.Primary outcome measuresAcceptability and feasibility of the co-designed interventions.ResultsAuditing the implementation of these interventions revealed between 58%–76% of the items on the laboratory proforma and 43%–80% of items on the communication checklists were completed. Interviews with healthcare professionals who had used the interventions in practice provided positive feedback in relation to the purpose of the interventions and the ease of completion both of which were viewed as enhancing communication of positive newborn bloodspot screening results. Interviews with parents highlighted the perceived benefit of the co-designed interventions in terms of consistency, pacing and tailoring of information as well as providing reliable information to families following communication of the positive newborn bloodspot screening result. The process evaluation illuminated organisational and contextual barriers during implementation of the co-designed interventions in practice.ConclusionVariations in communication practices for positive newborn bloodspot screening results continue to exist. The co-designed interventions could help to standardise communication of positive newborn screening results from laboratories to clinicians and from clinicians to parents which in turn could improve parents’ experience of receiving a positive newborn bloodspot screening result. Implementation highlighted some organisational and contextual barriers to effective adoption of the co-designed interventions in practice.Trial registration numberISRCTN15330120.

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with 30% of strokes, as well as other cardiovascular disease, dementia and death. AF meets many criteria for screening, but there is limited evidence that AF screening reduces stroke. Consequently, no countries recommend national screening programmes for AF. The Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with ECG to Reduce stroke (SAFER) trial aims to determine whether screening for AF is effective at reducing risk of stroke. The aim of the pilot study is to assess feasibility of the main trial and inform implementation of screening and trial procedures. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: SAFER is planned to be a pragmatic randomised controlled trial (RCT) of over 100 000 participants aged 70 years and over, not on long-term anticoagulation therapy at baseline, with an average follow-up of 5 years. Participants are asked to record four traces every day for 3 weeks on a hand-held single-lead ECG device. Cardiologists remotely confirm episodes of AF identified by the device algorithm, and general practitioners follow-up with anticoagulation as appropriate. The pilot study is a cluster RCT in 36 UK general practices, randomised 2:1 control to intervention, recruiting approximately 12 600 participants. Pilot study outcomes include AF detection rate, anticoagulation uptake and other parameters to incorporate into sample size calculations for the main trial. Questionnaires sent to a sample of participants will assess impact of screening on psychological health. Process evaluation and qualitative studies will underpin implementation of screening during the main trial. An economic evaluation using the pilot data will confirm whether it is plausible that screening might be cost-effective. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The London-Central Research Ethics Committee (19/LO/1597) and Confidentiality Advisory Group (19/CAG/0226) provided ethical approval. Dissemination will be via publications, patient-friendly summaries, reports and engagement with the UK National Screening Committee. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN72104369., The SAFER pilot study and main trial are funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) [Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Reference Number RP-PG-0217-20007)]. The SAFER feasibility study is funded by the NIHR [School for Primary Care Research (SPCR-2014-10043, project 410)]. SAFER is a contributor to / partner of AFFECT-EU receiving funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Programme under grant agreement NO. 847770. RM and JL are supported by the Wellcome Trust as part of the Wellcome Trust PhD Programme for Primary Care Clinicians [grant number 203921/Z/16/Z]. JB, SH and AP are based in The Healthcare Improvement Studies Institute (THIS Institute), University of Cambridge. THIS Institute is supported by the Health Foundation, an independent charity committed to bringing about better health and healthcare for people in the UK. JB is supported by the Health Foundation’s grant to the University of Cambridge for The Healthcare Improvement Studies (THIS) Institute (RG88620). JM and FDRH are NIHR Senior Investigators. FDRH acknowledges support from NIHR ARC OTV and Oxford BRC (OUT). RJM is an NIHR Senior Investigator and acknowledges support from NIHR ARC OTV. NA is supported by a Health Foundation Improvement Science Fellowship and also by the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration East Midlands (ARC EM). RJ is an NIHR-funded Academic Clinical Lecturer. The University of Cambridge has received salary support in respect of SJG from the NHS in the East of England through the Clinical Academic Reserve. BF reports grants to the Heart Research Institute. All the funders and sponsors had no involvement in the development of this protocol and will have no involvement in any aspect of the study itself. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the Wellcome Trust, the NIHR or the UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Background Each year in England, almost 10,000 parents are informed of their child’s positive newborn bloodspot screening (NBS) results. This occurs approximately 2 to 8 weeks after birth depending on the condition. Communication of positive NBS results is a subtle and skillful task, demanding thought, preparation, and evidence to minimize potentially harmful negative sequelae. Evidence of variability in the content and the way the result is currently communicated has the potential to lead to increased parental anxiety and distress. Objective This study focused on the development of co-designed interventions to improve the experiences of parents receiving positive NBS results for their children and enhance communication between health care professionals and parents. Methods An experience-based co-design approach was used to explore experiences and co-design solutions with 17 health professionals employed in 3 National Health Service Trusts in England and 21 parents (13/21, 62% mothers and 8/21, 38% fathers) of 14 children recruited from the same 3 National Health Service Trusts. Experiences with existing services were gathered via semistructured interviews with health professionals. Filmed narrative interviews with parents were developed into a composite film. The co-design process identified priorities for improving communication of positive NBS results through separate parent and health professional feedback events followed by joint feedback events. In total, 4 interventions were then co-designed between the participants through a web-based platform. Results Parents and health professionals provided positive feedback regarding the process of gathering experiences and identifying priorities. Themes identified from the parent interviews included impact of initial communication, parental reactions, attending the first clinic appointment, impact of health professionals’ communication strategies and skills, impact of diagnosis on family and friends, improvements to the communication of positive NBS results, and parents’ views on NBS. Themes identified from the health professional interviews included communication between health professionals, process of communicating with the family, parent- and family-centered care, and availability of resources and challenges to effective communication. In response to these themes, 4 interventions were co-designed: changes to the NBS card; standardized laboratory proformas; standardized communication checklists; and an email or letter for providing reliable, up-to-date, condition-specific information for parents following the communication of positive NBS results. Conclusions Parents and health professionals were able to successfully work together to identify priorities and develop co-designed interventions to improve communication of positive NBS results to parents. The resulting co-designed interventions address communication at different stages of the communication pathway to improve the experiences of parents receiving positive NBS results for their children. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) RR2-10.1186/s40814-019-0487-5

The PAM intervention is a behavioural intervention to support adherence to anti-hypertensive medications and therefore to lower blood pressure. This feasibility trial recruited 101 nonadherent patients (54% male, mean age 65.8 years) with hypertension and high blood pressure from nine general practices in the UK. The trial had 15.5% uptake and 7.9% attrition rate. Patients were randomly allocated to two groups: the intervention group (n = 61) received the PAM intervention as an adjunct to usual care; the control group (n = 40) received usual care only. At 3 months, biochemically validated medication adherence was improved by 20% (95% CI 3–36%) in the intervention than control, and systolic blood pressure was reduced by 9.16 mmHg (95% CI 5.69–12.64) in intervention than control. Improvements in medication adherence and reductions in blood pressure suggested potential intervention effectiveness. For a subsample of patients, improvements in medication adherence and reductions in full lipid profile (cholesterol 1.39 mmol/mol 95% CI 0.64–1.40) and in glycated haemoglobin (3.08 mmol/mol, 95% CI 0.42–5.73) favoured the intervention. A larger trial will obtain rigorous evidence about the potential clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the intervention.Trial registration Trial date of first registration 28/01/2019. ISRCTN74504989. https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN74504989.

BackgroundEsophageal adenocarcinoma has a very poor prognosis unless detected early. The Cytosponge-trefoil factor 3 (TFF3) is a non-endoscopic test for Barrett esophagus, a precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Randomised controlled trial data from the BEST3 trial has shown that an offer of Cytosponge-TFF3 in the primary care setting in England to individuals on medication for acid reflux increases detection of Barrett esophagus 10-fold over a year compared with standard care. This is an economic evaluation of Cytosponge-TFF3 screening versus usual care using data from the BEST3 trial which took place between 20th March 2017 and 21st March 2019.MethodsA Markov model with a one-year cycle-length and a lifetime time horizon was created, adapting previous modeling work on Cytosponge screening. The impact of one round of Cytosponge screening was modelled in patients with a median age of 69 years (based on BEST3 trial population). Cost-effectiveness was expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted on model parameters.FindingsPer person, one round of Cytosponge-TFF3 screening, including confirmatory endoscopy and treatment, in the intervention arm costed £82 more than usual care and generated an additional 0.015 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an ICER of £5,500 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis gave an ICER of £5,405 (95% CI -£6,791 to £17,600). The average QALY gain per person is small because the majority of patients in the model will not develop BE and therefore will have no resulting change in their utility, however the small proportion of patients who are identified with BE dysplasia or cancer derive large benefit. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY, the probability that Cytosponge-TFF3 was cost-effective was over 90%.InterpretationUsing data from a pragmatic randomised trial, one-off Cytosponge-TFF3 screen is cost-effective relative to usual care for patients with gastro-esophageal reflux disease, despite relatively low uptake and an older population in this trial setting than previously modelled. Improving Cytosponge-TFF3 uptake and targeting younger patients is likely to further improve cost-effectiveness.

Background A community-based occupational therapy intervention for people with mild to moderate dementia and their family carers: the Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia–UK version (COTiD-UK); and Treatment as usual (TAU) were randomly assigned to 468 pairs (each comprising a person with dementia and a family carer) in the Valuing Active Life in Dementia (VALID) randomised controlled trial (RCT). Objectives To compare the cost-utility of the COTiD-UK intervention compared to TAU, using data from the VALID RCT. Methods We performed a cost-utility analysis estimating mean costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) per person with dementia and carer for both treatments over a 26 weeks’ time horizon based on resource use data and utility values collected in the trial. Results Taking the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective, including costs and benefits to the person with dementia only, measuring Health Related Quality of Life based on Dementia Quality of Life scale (DEMQOL), accounting for missing data and adjusting for baseline values, there was a significant difference in costs between COTiD-UK and TAU (mean incremental cost for COTiD-UK £784 (95% CI £233 to £1334)), but no significant difference in outcomes (mean QALYs gained 0.00664 (95% CI -0.00404, 0.01732)). The Incremental Net Monetary Benefit (INMB) for COTiD-UK versus TAU was negative at a maximum willingness to pay for a QALY of £20000 (mean -£651, 95% CI -£878 to -£424) or £30000 (mean -£585, 95% CI -£824 to -£345). Extensive sensitivity analyses confirmed the results. Conclusions This community-based occupational therapy intervention has a very low probability of being cost-effective.

ObjectiveTo explore health professionals’ experiences of communicating positive newborn bloodspot screening (NBS) results, highlight differences, share good practice and make recommendations for future research.DesignQualitative exploratory design was employed using semi-structured interviewsSettingThree National Health Service provider organisations in EnglandParticipantsSeventeen health professionals involved in communicating positive newborn bloodspot screening results to parents for all nine conditions currently included in the newborn bloodspot screening programme in England.ResultsFindings indicated variation in approaches to communicating positive newborn bloodspot screening results to parents, largely influenced by resources available and the lack of clear guidance. Health professionals emphasised the importance of communicating results to families in a way that is sensitive to their needs. However, many challenges hindered communication including logistical considerations; difficulty contacting the family and other health professionals; language barriers; parental reactions; resource considerations; lack of training; and insufficient time.ConclusionHealth professionals invest a lot of time and energy trying to ensure communication of positive newborn bloodspot screening results to families is done well. However, there continues to be great variation in the way these results are communicated to parents and this is largely influenced by resources available but also the lack of concrete guidance. How best to support health professionals undertaking this challenging and emotive task requires further exploration. We recommend evaluation of a more cohesive approach that meets the needs of parents and staff while being sensitive to the subtleties of each condition.Trial registration numberISRCTN15330120

Background Reaching the bedside of a critically ill child within three hours of agreeing the child requires intensive care is a key target for Paediatric Critical Care Transport teams (PCCTs) to achieve in the United Kingdom. Whilst timely access to specialist care is necessary for these children, it is unknown to what extent time taken for the PCCT to arrive at the bedside affects clinical outcome. Methods Data from transports of critically ill children who were admitted to Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) in England and Wales from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 were extracted from the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet) and linked with adult critical care data and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Logistic regression models, adjusted for pre-specified confounders, were fitted to investigate the impact of time-to-bedside on mortality within 30 days of admission and other key time points. Negative binomial models were used to investigate the impact of time-to-bedside on PICU length of stay and duration of invasive ventilation. Results There were 9116 children transported during the study period, and 645 (7.1%) died within 30 days of PICU admission. There was no evidence that 30-day mortality changed as time-to-bedside increased. A similar relationship was seen for mortality at other pre-selected time points. In children who waited longer for a team to arrive, there was limited evidence of a small increase in PICU length of stay (expected number of days increased from: 7.17 to 7.58). Conclusion There is no evidence that reducing the time-to-bedside target for PCCTs will improve the survival of critically ill children. A shorter time to bedside may be associated with a small reduction in PICU length of stay.

ObjectivesIn England, healthcare policy advocates specialised age-appropriate services for teenagers and young adults (TYA), those aged 13 to 24 years at diagnosis. Specialist Principal Treatment Centres (PTC) provide enhanced TYA age-specific care, although many still receive care in adult or children’s cancer services. We present the first prospective structured analysis of quality of life (QOL) associated with the amount of care received in a TYA-PTCDesignLongitudinal cohort study.SettingHospitals delivering inpatient cancer care in England.Participants1114 young people aged 13 to 24 years newly diagnosed with cancer.InterventionExposure to the TYA-PTC defined as patients receiving NO-TYA-PTC care with those receiving ALL-TYA-PTC and SOME-TYA-PTC care.Primary outcomeQuality of life measured at five time points: 6, 12, 18, 24 and 36 months after diagnosis.ResultsGroup mean total QOL improved over time for all patients, but for those receiving NO-TYA-PTC was an average of 5.63 points higher (95% CI 2.77 to 8.49) than in young people receiving SOME-TYA-PTC care, and 4·17 points higher (95% CI 1.07 to 7.28) compared with ALL-TYA-PTC care. Differences were greatest 6 months after diagnosis, reduced over time and did not meet the 8-point level that is proposed to be clinically significant. Young people receiving NO-TYA-PTC care were more likely to have been offered a choice of place of care, be older, from more deprived areas, in work and have less severe disease. However, analyses adjusting for confounding factors did not explain the differences between TYA groups.ConclusionsReceipt of some or all care in a TYA-PTC was associated with lower QOL shortly after cancer diagnosis. The NO-TYA-PTC group had higher QOL 3 years after diagnosis, however those receiving all or some care in a TYA-PTC experienced more rapid QOL improvements. Receipt of some care in a TYA-PTC requires further study.

Background Whole-body magnetic resonance imaging is advocated as an alternative to standard pathways for staging cancer. Objectives The objectives were to compare diagnostic accuracy, efficiency, patient acceptability, observer variability and cost-effectiveness of whole-body magnetic resonance imaging and standard pathways in staging newly diagnosed non-small-cell lung cancer (Streamline L) and colorectal cancer (Streamline C). Design The design was a prospective multicentre cohort study. Setting The setting was 16 NHS hospitals. Participants Consecutive patients aged ≥ 18 years with histologically proven or suspected colorectal (Streamline C) or non-small-cell lung cancer (Streamline L). Interventions Whole-body magnetic resonance imaging. Standard staging investigations (e.g. computed tomography and positron emission tomography–computed tomography). Reference standard Consensus panel decision using 12-month follow-up data. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was per-patient sensitivity difference between whole-body magnetic resonance imaging and standard staging pathways for metastasis. Secondary outcomes included differences in specificity, the nature of the first major treatment decision, time and number of tests to complete staging, patient experience and cost-effectiveness. Results Streamline C – 299 participants were included. Per-patient sensitivity for metastatic disease was 67% (95% confidence interval 56% to 78%) and 63% (95% confidence interval 51% to 74%) for whole-body magnetic resonance imaging and standard pathways, respectively, a difference in sensitivity of 4% (95% confidence interval –5% to 13%; p = 0.51). Specificity was 95% (95% confidence interval 92% to 97%) and 93% (95% confidence interval 90% to 96%) respectively, a difference of 2% (95% confidence interval –2% to 6%). Pathway treatment decisions agreed with the multidisciplinary team treatment decision in 96% and 95% of cases, respectively, a difference of 1% (95% confidence interval –2% to 4%). Time for staging was 8 days (95% confidence interval 6 to 9 days) and 13 days (95% confidence interval 11 to 15 days) for whole-body magnetic resonance imaging and standard pathways, respectively, a difference of 5 days (95% confidence interval 3 to 7 days). The whole-body magnetic resonance imaging pathway was cheaper than the standard staging pathway: £216 (95% confidence interval £211 to £221) versus £285 (95% confidence interval £260 to £310). Streamline L – 187 participants were included. Per-patient sensitivity for metastatic disease was 50% (95% confidence interval 37% to 63%) and 54% (95% confidence interval 41% to 67%) for whole-body magnetic resonance imaging and standard pathways, respectively, a difference in sensitivity of 4% (95% confidence interval –7% to 15%; p = 0.73). Specificity was 93% (95% confidence interval 88% to 96%) and 95% (95% confidence interval 91% to 98%), respectively, a difference of 2% (95% confidence interval –2% to 7%). Pathway treatment decisions agreed with the multidisciplinary team treatment decision in 98% and 99% of cases, respectively, a difference of 1% (95% confidence interval –2% to 4%). Time for staging was 13 days (95% confidence interval 12 to 14 days) and 19 days (95% confidence interval 17 to 21 days) for whole-body magnetic resonance imaging and standard pathways, respectively, a difference of 6 days (95% confidence interval 4 to 8 days). The whole-body magnetic resonance imaging pathway was cheaper than the standard staging pathway: £317 (95% confidence interval £273 to £361) versus £620 (95% confidence interval £574 to £666). Participants generally found whole-body magnetic resonance imaging more burdensome than standard imaging but most participants preferred the whole-body magnetic resonance imaging staging pathway if it reduced time to staging and/or number of tests. Limitations Whole-body magnetic resonance imaging was interpreted by practitioners blinded to other clinical data, which may not fully reflect how it is used in clinical practice. Conclusions In colorectal and non-small-cell lung cancer, the whole-body magnetic resonance imaging staging pathway has similar accuracy to standard staging pathways, is generally preferred by patients, improves staging efficiency and has lower staging costs. Future work should address the utility of whole-body magnetic resonance imaging for treatment response assessment. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN43958015 and ISRCTN50436483. Funding This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

OBJECTIVE: Approximately 7% of children and young people aged 5-15 years in the UK have obesity at a level likely to be associated with comorbidities. The majority of multicomponent lifestyle programmes have limited applicability and generalisability for British adolescents.The Healthy Eating and Lifestyle Programme (HELP) was a specific adolescent-focused intervention, designed for obese 12 to 18-year-olds seeking help to manage their weight. Participants were randomised to the 12-session HELP intervention or standard care. The primary outcome was difference in mean body mass index (BMI) (kg/m2) between groups at week 26 adjusted for baseline BMI, age and sex. SUBJECTS: 174 subjects were randomised (87 in each arm), of whom 145 (83%) provided primary outcome data at week 26. RESULTS: At week 26 there were no significant effects of the intervention on BMI (mean change in BMI 0.18 kg/m2 for the intervention arm, 0.25 kg/m2 for the control arm; adjusted difference between groups: -0.11 kg/m2 (95% CI -0.62 to 0.40), p=0.7). At weeks 26 and 52 there were no significant differences between groups in any secondary outcomes. CONCLUSION: At minimum this study reinforces the need for higher level, structured interventions to tackle the growing public health burden of obesity in the UK and internationally.The HELP intervention was no more effective than a single educational session for reducing BMI in a community sample of obese adolescents.Further work is needed to understand how weight management programmes can be delivered effectively to young people from diverse and deprived backgrounds in which childhood obesity is common. The study has significant implications in terms of informing public health interventions to tackle childhood obesity. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN: ISRCTN99840111.

Background Accurate whole-body staging following biochemical relapse in prostate cancer is vital in determining the optimum disease management. Current imaging guidelines recommend various imaging platforms such as computed tomography (CT), Technetium 99 m (99mTc) bone scan and 18F-choline and recently 68Ga-PSMA positron emission tomography (PET) for the evaluation of the extent of disease. Such approach requires multiple hospital attendances and can be time and resource intensive. Recently, whole-body magnetic resonance imaging (WB-MRI) has been used in a single visit scanning session for several malignancies, including prostate cancer, with promising results, providing similar accuracy compared to the combined conventional imaging techniques. The LOCATE trial aims to investigate the application of WB-MRI for re-staging of patients with biochemical relapse (BCR) following external beam radiotherapy and brachytherapy in patients with prostate cancer. Methods/design The LOCATE trial is a prospective cohort, multi-centre, non-randomised, diagnostic accuracy study comparing WB-MRI and conventional imaging. Eligible patients will undergo WB-MRI in addition to conventional imaging investigations at the time of BCR and will be asked to attend a second WB-MRI exam, 12-months following the initial scan. WB-MRI results will be compared to an enhanced reference standard comprising all the initial, follow-up imaging and non-imaging investigations. The diagnostic performance (sensitivity and specificity analysis) of WB-MRI for re-staging of BCR will be investigated against the enhanced reference standard on a per-patient basis. An economic analysis of WB-MRI compared to conventional imaging pathways will be performed to inform the cost-effectiveness of the WB-MRI imaging pathway. Additionally, an exploratory sub-study will be performed on blood samples and exosome-derived human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER) dimer measurements will be taken to investigate its significance in this cohort. Discussion The LOCATE trial will compare WB-MRI versus the conventional imaging pathway including its cost-effectiveness, therefore informing the most accurate and efficient imaging pathway. Trial registration LOCATE trial was registered on ClinicalTrial.gov on 18th of October 2016 with registration reference number NCT02935816.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the importance placed by patients on attributes associated with whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) and standard cancer staging pathways and ascertain drivers of preference. METHODS: Patients recruited to two multi-centre diagnostic accuracy trials comparing WB-MRI with standard staging pathways in lung and colorectal cancer were invited to complete a discrete choice experiment (DCE), choosing between a series of alternate pathways in which 6 attributes (accuracy, time to diagnosis, scan duration, whole-body enclosure, radiation exposure, total scan number) were varied systematically. Data were analysed using a conditional logit regression model and marginal rates of substitution computed. The relative importance of each attribute and probabilities of choosing WB-MRI-based pathways were estimated. RESULTS: A total of 138 patients (mean age 65, 61% male, lung n = 72, colorectal n = 66) participated (May 2015 to September 2016). Lung cancer patients valued time to diagnosis most highly, followed by accuracy, radiation exposure, number of scans, and time in the scanner. Colorectal cancer patients valued accuracy most highly, followed by time to diagnosis, radiation exposure, and number of scans. Patients were willing to wait 0.29 (lung) and 0.45 (colorectal) weeks for a 1% increase in pathway accuracy. Patients preferred WB-MRI-based pathways (probability 0.64 [lung], 0.66 [colorectal]) if they were equivalent in accuracy, total scan number, and time to diagnosis compared with a standard staging pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Staging pathways based on first-line WB-MRI are preferred by the majority of patients if they at least match standard pathways for diagnostic accuracy, time to diagnosis, and total scan number. KEY POINTS: • WB-MRI staging pathways are preferred to standard pathways by the majority of patients provided they at least match standard staging pathways for accuracy, total scan number, and time to diagnosis. • For patients with lung cancer, time to diagnosis was the attribute valued most highly, followed by accuracy, radiation dose, number of additional scans, and time in a scanner. Preference for patients with colorectal cancer was similar. • Most (63%) patients were willing to trade attributes, such as faster diagnosis, for improvements in pathway accuracy and reduced radiation exposure.

ObjectiveTo explore current communication practices for positive newborn screening results from the newborn bloodspot screening (NBS) laboratory to clinicians to highlight differences, understand how the pathways are implemented in practice, identify barriers and facilitators and make recommendations for future practice and research.DesignA qualitative exploratory design was employed using semi-structured interviews.SettingThirteen NBS laboratories in England.ParticipantsSeventy-one clinicians; 22 NBS laboratory staff across 13 laboratories and 49 members of relevant clinical teams were interviewed.ResultsAssurance of quality and consistency was a priority for all NBS laboratories. Findings indicated variation in approaches to communicating positive NBS results from laboratories to clinical teams. This was particularly evident for congenital hypothyroidism and was largely influenced by local arrangements, resources and the fact individual laboratories had detailed standard operating procedures for how they work. Obtaining feedback from clinical teams to the laboratory after the child had been seen could be challenging and time-consuming for those involved. Pathways for communicating carrier results for cystic fibrosis and sickle cell disease could be ambiguous and inconsistent which in turn could hamper the laboratories efforts to obtain timely feedback regarding whether or not the result had been communicated to the family. Communication pathways for positive NBS results between laboratories and clinical teams could therefore be time-consuming and resource-intensive.ConclusionThe importance placed on ensuring positive NBS results were communicated effectively and in a timely fashion from the laboratory to the clinical team was evident from all participants. However, variation existed in terms of the processes used to report positive NBS results to clinical teams and the people involved. Variant practice identified may reflect local needs, but more often reflected local resources and a more consistent ‘best practice’ approach is required, not just in the UK but perhaps globally.Trial registration numberISRCTN15330120.

Background: Early detection of oesophageal cancer improves outcomes; however, the optimal strategy for identifying patients at increased risk from the pre-cancerous lesion Barrett’s oesophagus (BE) is not clear. The Cytosponge, a novel non-endoscopic sponge device, combined with the biomarker Trefoil Factor 3 (TFF3) has been tested in four clinical studies. It was found to be safe, accurate and acceptable to patients.\ud \ud \ud \ud The aim of the BEST3 trial is to evaluate if the offer of a Cytosponge-TFF3 test in primary care for patients on long term acid suppressants leads to an increase in the number of patients diagnosed with BE.\ud \ud \ud \ud Methods: The BEST3 trial is a pragmatic multi-site cluster-randomised controlled trial set in primary care in England. Approximately 120 practices will be randomised 1:1 to either the intervention arm, invitation to a Cytosponge-TFF3 test, or the control arm usual care. Inclusion criteria are men and women aged 50 or over with records of at least 6 months of prescriptions for acid-suppressants in the last year. Patients in the intervention arm will receive an invitation to have a Cytosponge-TFF3 test in their general practice. Patients with a positive TFF3 test will receive an invitation for an upper gastro-intestinal endoscopy at their local hospital-based endoscopy clinic to test for BE.\ud \ud \ud \ud The primary objective is to compare histologically confirmed BE diagnosis between the intervention and control arms to determine whether the offer of the Cytosponge-TFF3 test in primary care results in an increase in BE diagnosis within 12 months of study entry.\ud \ud \ud \ud Discussion: The BEST3 trial is a well-powered pragmatic trial testing the use of the Cytosponge-TFF3 test in the same population that we envisage it being used in clinical practice. The data generated from this trial will enable NICE and other clinical bodies to decide whether this test is suitable for routine clinical use.\ud \ud \ud \ud Trial registration: This trial was prospectively registered with the ISRCTN Registry on 19/01/2017, trial number ISRCTN68382401.

IMPORTANCE: The age-based or "one-size-fits-all" breast screening approach does not take into account the individual variation in risk. Mammography screening reduces death from breast cancer at the cost of overdiagnosis. Identifying risk-stratified screening strategies with a more favorable ratio of overdiagnoses to breast cancer deaths prevented would improve the quality of life of women and save resources. OBJECTIVE: To assess the benefit-to-harm ratio and the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified breast screening programs compared with a standard age-based screening program and no screening. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: A life-table model was created of a hypothetical cohort of 364 500 women in the United Kingdom, aged 50 years, with follow-up to age 85 years, using (1) findings of the Independent UK Panel on Breast Cancer Screening and (2) risk distribution based on polygenic risk profile. The analysis was undertaken from the National Health Service perspective. INTERVENTIONS: The modeled interventions were (1) no screening, (2) age-based screening (mammography screening every 3 years from age 50 to 69 years), and (3) risk-stratified screening (a proportion of women aged 50 years with a risk score greater than a threshold risk were offered screening every 3 years until age 69 years) considering each percentile of the risk distribution. All analyses took place between July 2016 and September 2017. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Overdiagnoses, breast cancer deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, costs in British pounds, and net monetary benefit (NMB). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess uncertainty around parameter estimates. Future costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per year. RESULTS: The risk-stratified analysis of this life-table model included a hypothetical cohort of 364 500 women followed up from age 50 to 85 years. As the risk threshold was lowered, the incremental cost of the program increased linearly, compared with no screening, with no additional QALYs gained below 35th percentile risk threshold. Of the 3 screening scenarios, the risk-stratified scenario with risk threshold at the 70th percentile had the highest NMB, at a willingness to pay of £20 000 (US $26 800) per QALY gained, with a 72% probability of being cost-effective. Compared with age-based screening, risk-stratified screening at the 32nd percentile vs 70th percentile risk threshold would cost £20 066 (US $26 888) vs £537 985 (US $720 900) less, would have 26.7% vs 71.4% fewer overdiagnoses, and would avert 2.9% vs 9.6% fewer breast cancer deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Not offering breast cancer screening to women at lower risk could improve the cost-effectiveness of the screening program, reduce overdiagnosis, and maintain the benefits of screening.

BackgroundContacting a doctor for advice when experiencing a potential cancer symptom is an important step in early diagnosis, but barriers to consultation are commonly reported. Understanding barriers to consulting in primary care within the cancer context provides opportunities to improve earlier diagnosis of cancerAimTo investigate patients’ GP consultation preferences when presented with a potential cancer symptom, and to describe whether these preferences are mediated by variable levels of cancer risk.Design and settingA UK-wide online survey of adults ≥50 years old, using quota sampling to reflect general population characteristics.MethodA discrete choice experiment examined participants’ preferences for primary care consultation for three cancer symptom scenarios: risk level not mentioned, risk designated as ‘low’, or risk designated as ‘high’. Scenarios based on length of consultation, time to getting an appointment, convenience, choice of GP, and GP listening skills were presented in a self-completed online questionnaire.ResultsA total of 9616 observations were obtained from 601 participants. Participants expressed preferences for doctors with better listening skills, the ability to see a GP of their choice, and shorter waiting times. These findings were the same across risk conditions and demographic groups. Participants were willing to wait an extra 3.5 weeks for an appointment with a doctor with good/very good listening skills (versus very poor listening skills) and an extra week for an appointment with a GP of their choice (versus any GP).ConclusionPatient decisions about help seeking seem to be particularly influenced by the anticipated listening skills of doctors. Improving doctors’ communication skills may in the longer term encourage people to seek prompt medical help when they experience a cancer symptom.

Imaging biomarkers (IBs) are integral to the routine management of patients with cancer. IBs used daily in oncology include clinical TNM stage, objective response and left ventricular ejection fraction. Other CT, MRI, PET and ultrasonography biomarkers are used extensively in cancer research and drug development. New IBs need to be established either as useful tools for testing research hypotheses in clinical trials and research studies, or as clinical decision-making tools for use in healthcare, by crossing 'translational gaps' through validation and qualification. Important differences exist between IBs and biospecimen-derived biomarkers and, therefore, the development of IBs requires a tailored 'roadmap'. Recognizing this need, Cancer Research UK (CRUK) and the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) assembled experts to review, debate and summarize the challenges of IB validation and qualification. This consensus group has produced 14 key recommendations for accelerating the clinical translation of IBs, which highlight the role of parallel (rather than sequential) tracks of technical (assay) validation, biological/clinical validation and assessment of cost-effectiveness; the need for IB standardization and accreditation systems; the need to continually revisit IB precision; an alternative framework for biological/clinical validation of IBs; and the essential requirements for multicentre studies to qualify IBs for clinical use.

BACKGROUND: Programmes have had limited success in improving guideline adherence for chronic disease. Use of theory is recommended but is often absent in programmes conducted in 'real-world' rather than research settings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This mixed-methods study tested a retrospective theory-based approach to evaluate a 'real-world' programme in primary care to improve adherence to national guidelines for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Qualitative data, comprising analysis of documents generated throughout the programme (n>300), in-depth interviews with planners (clinicians, managers and improvement experts involved in devising, planning, and implementing the programme, n = 14) and providers (practice clinicians, n = 14) were used to construct programme theories, experiences of implementation and contextual factors influencing care. Quantitative analyses comprised controlled before-and-after analyses to test 'early' and evolved' programme theories with comparators grounded in each theory. 'Early' theory predicted the programme would reduce emergency hospital admissions (EHA). It was tested using national analysis of standardized borough-level EHA rates between programme and comparator boroughs. 'Evolved' theory predicted practices with higher programme participation would increase guideline adherence and reduce EHA and costs. It was tested using a difference-in-differences analysis with linked primary and secondary care data to compare changes in diagnosis, management, EHA and costs, over time and by programme participation. RESULTS: Contrary to programme planners' predictions in 'early' and 'evolved' programme theories, admissions did not change following the programme. However, consistent with 'evolved' theory, higher guideline adoption occurred in practices with greater programme participation. CONCLUSIONS: Retrospectively constructing theories based on the ideas of programme planners can enable evaluators to address some limitations encountered when evaluating programmes without a theoretical base. Prospectively articulating theory aided by existing models and mid-range implementation theories may strengthen guideline adoption efforts by prompting planners to scrutinise implementation methods. Benefits of deriving programme theory, with or without the aid of mid-range implementation theories, however, may be limited when the evidence underpinning guidelines is flawed.

BackgroundChildhood overweight and obesity have health and economic impacts on individuals and the wider society. Families participating in weight management programmes may foresee or experience monetary and other costs which deter them from signing up to or completing programmes. This is recognised in the health economics literature, though within this sparse body of work, costs to families are often narrowly defined and not fully accounted for. A societal perspective incorporating a broader array of costs may provide a more accurate picture. This paper brings together a review of the health economics literature on the costs to families attending child weight management programmes with qualitative data from families participating in a programme to manage child overweight and obesity.MethodsA search identified economic evaluation studies of lifestyle interventions in childhood obesity. The qualitative work drew on interviews with families who attended a weight management intervention in three UK regions.ResultsWe identified four cost-effectiveness analyses that include information on costs to families. These were categorised as direct (e.g. monetary) and indirect (e.g. time) costs. Our analysis of qualitative data demonstrated that, for families who attended the programme, costs were associated both with participation on the scheme and with maintaining a healthy lifestyle afterwards. Respondents reported three kinds of cost: time-related, social/emotionaland monetary.ConclusionSocietal approaches to measuring cost-effectiveness provide a framework for assessing the monetary and non-monetary costs borne by participants attending treatment programmes. From this perspective, all costs should be considered in any analysis of cost-effectiveness. Our data suggest that family costs are important, and may act as a barrier to the uptake, completion and maintenance of behaviours to reduce child obesity. These findings have implications for the development and implementation of child weight initiatives in particular, in relation to reducing inequalities in health.

Background The National Child Measurement Programme was established to measure the height and weight of children at primary school in England and provides parents with feedback about their child’s weight status. In this study we will evaluate the impact of the National Child Measurement Programme feedback on parental risk perceptions of overweight, lifestyle behaviour and health service use. Methods The study will be a prospective cohort study of parents of children enrolled in the National Child Measurement Programme and key service providers from 5 primary care trusts (administrative bodies responsible for providing primary and secondary care services). We will conduct baseline questionnaires, followed by provision of weight feedback and 3 follow up questionnaires over the course of a year. Questionnaires will measure change in parental risk perception of overweight, health behaviours and health service use. Qualitative interviews will be used to identify barriers and facilitators to change. This study will produce preliminary data on National Health Service costs associated with weight feedback and determine which feedback approach (letter and letter plus telephone) is more effective. Discussion This study will provide the first large scale evaluation of the National Child Measurement Programme feedback. Findings from this evaluation will inform future planning of the National Child Measurement Programme.