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To discuss the ways in which a planner can specify future education needs in a changing political climate, the author focuses on Ontario, and uses tables and enrollment projections as illustrations. The author notes that the issue of how much to spend on education is political, and observes that, in Ontario, the growing demand will be for enrollment in institutions of higher education. The report discusses ways in which planners might meet the demands of this increased enrollment. (JF)

The purpose of this paper is to describe the changing nature of educational planning and administration, thereby removing much of the semantic confusion surrounding these terms. At the same time, the authors emphasize the need for educational institutions to identify explicitly their objectives and activities in these two fields. The paper also attempts to describe more accurately the concept of educational planning by relating several educational issues to the strategic, tactical, and operational planning levels. A brief evaluation of past and emerging needs of research in teacher manpower is provided. (Author)

This monograph is concerned with the uses to which an individualized student information system could be put for obtaining valuable insights into the progress of a variety of students through the educational system. In chapter 1, the concepts and terminology required for an understanding of transition matrixes are introduced, and a mathematical derivation of the basic flow equations and their matrix formulations is provided. Chapter 2 contains a numerical example of the applications of empirical transition matrix methods to the flows within two Ontario colleges of applied arts and technology, and chapter 3 discusses the benefits, limitations, and possible extensions of the method. (Author/RA)

This bibliography reflects a literature survey to ascertain the relevance of mathematical techniques to the determination of teacher salaries. While most of the entries deal with studies on teacher salary determination, few papers cover analysis of the flow and effective utilization of teacher manpower. (Author)

The authors describe an extension that has been made to and subsequently incorporated into the system known as Teacher Cost Models. This approach -- a dollar flow analysis -- identifies and quantifies the factors that contribute to dollar changes in the ON GRID teacher wage-bill from one year to the next. The methodology is applicable at both the county board and the provincial levels. Decisionmakers are provided with a detailed breakdown of teacher costs as they have evolved in the past and as they are likely to develop in the immediate future. This capability to quantify the dynamics of teacher costs should be of particular interest to school board salary negotiators for elementary and secondary school systems. (Author)

This report describes the development of a teacher cost model for the Ontario secondary school system that allows educational officials, using a specified set of input information, to forecast the provincial wage-bill for a period of up to five years. The model is composed of two sub-models -- the teacher manpower sub-model and the teacher salary sub-model. A grid of teacher headcounts by category and experience and a grid of salary entries corresponding to the teacher salary schedule are generated from data obtained from the Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation. Methods for the estimation of teacher leaving and hiring rates and the estimation of teacher salary schedules are developed and applied to the model thereby generating estimates of future manpower distributions and salary schedules for the school years 1971-76. The model thus created calculates the teacher wage-bill for a selected set of parameters. Various implications of these projections for decisionmaking and policy analysis are discussed. Related documents are EA 005 254 and EA 005 255. (Author)

To fully develop a teacher cost model, it is essential to be able to forecast the number of teachers that leave the experience category distribution -- not only the total number that leave, but also the number that leave from each category and experience level within the distribution. Similarly, it is essential to be able to forecast, to the same detail, the number of teachers that change from one category to another. The set of algorithms presented here describes the methods that have been used in the estimation of these variables. Attempts are being made to improve these algorithms. For example, it would be desirable to incorporate the availability of summer school courses, and therefore the capacity for upgrading teacher qualifications, in the change of category rates. Also, hiring rates by category and experience should change relative to the supply and demand of teachers of various qualifications and experience. Related documents are EA 005 253 and EA 005 254. (Author)

This paper describes the method used by Tracz and Burtnyk for the estimation of future salary schedules in the Ontario secondary school system. The application of the algorithm to the Ontario secondary school system predicts a possible breakdown in the fixed step salary schedule at about 1980. This situation results primarily because of the consistent upgrading of teaching experience in the teacher force. Around 1980, the number of teachers at or very near the maximum of their category will be very high, and the number of new inexperienced teachers will be very low (because of decreasing enrollment.) Therefore, the tendency to provide salary increases of from 6-8 percent will necessitate increasing the maxima to approximately the same degree. This system, if applied over a number of years, would undermine the structure of the fixed step salary schedule. Although the algorithm presented here is not entirely satisfactory -- one of the negotiable variables, the number of years to reach the maximum, is used as a variable -- and is currently being modified, one of its merits is the ease with which salary schedules five or ten years from now can be created. Related documents are EA 005 253 and EA 005 255. (Author)

This planning study analyzes both the characteristics and supply/demand of elementary school teachers in Ontario. By using statistical data from 1958-1972, the report shows trends in (a) sources of teacher supply, (b) mobility and retention of teachers, (c) special education and (d) effects and influence of neighboring areas on Ontario education. From these trends, the study projects the supply of and demand for teachers with consideration for policy implications of the derived findings. Notes and indexes of tables and figures are included. (BRB)

This is the second in a series of reports on the characteristics and supply/demand of Ontario teachers. The enrollment of secondary school pupils, the size of the secondary school teacher force from 1959-71, and the relationship between pupil/teacher ratios are analyzed. The characteristics of this teacher force are presented statistically from the 1959-1968 data of the Dominion Bureau of Statistics (DBS) and the 1965-70 records of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation (OSSTF). Projections are then made, both generally and by subject matter, on the supply of and demand for secondary school teachers. Notes and indexes of tables and figures are included. (Related document is 005 960-Elementary Teacher.) (BRB)