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Abstract Bacteria are becoming increasingly resistant to antibiotics, reducing our ability to treat infections and threatening to undermine modern health care. Optimising antibiotic use is a key element in tackling the problem. Traditional economic evaluation methods do not capture many of the benefits from improved antibiotic use and the potential impact on resistance. Not capturing these benefits is a major obstacle to optimising antibiotic use, as it fails to incentivise the development and use of interventions to optimise the use of antibiotics and preserve their effectiveness (stewardship interventions). Estimates of the benefits of improving antibiotic use involve considerable uncertainty as they depend on the evolution of resistance and associated health outcomes and costs. Here we discuss how economic evaluation methods might be adapted, in the face of such uncertainties. We propose a threshold-based approach that estimates the minimum resistance-related costs that would need to be averted by an intervention to make it cost-effective. If it is probable that without the intervention costs will exceed the threshold then the intervention should be deemed cost-effective.

Objectives Bariatric surgery is an effective treatment for severe obesity that leads to significant physical health improvements. Few studies have prospectively described the short-term impact of surgery on mental health using standardised case-finding measures for anxiety or depressive disorders. This study describes the prevalence and short-term course of these conditions following surgery.Design Prospective observational cohort study.Setting 12 National Health Service centres in England.Participants Participants studied took part in the By-Band-Sleeve study, a multicentre randomised controlled trial evaluating the surgical management of severe obesity. We included participants who had undergone surgery (gastric bypass, gastric band or sleeve gastrectomy) within 6 months of randomisation.Primary and secondary outcome measures Anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) at baseline and 12 months post-randomisation. Sociodemographic variables collected at prerandomisation included body mass index, age, sex, ethnicity, marital status, tobacco use, employment status and income band.Results In our sample of 758 participants, 94.5% (n 716) and 93.9% (n 712) had completed baseline anxiety (HADS-A) and depression (HADS-D) subscales. At pre-randomisation 46.1% (n 330/716, 95% CI 42.4% to 49.7%) met clinical case criteria for anxiety and 48.2% (n 343/712, 95% CI 44.5% to 51.8%) for depression. Among participants returning completed 12 months post-randomisation questionnaires (HADS-A n 503/716, HADS-D n 498/712), there was a significant reduction in the proportion of clinical cases with anxiety (−9.5%, 95% CI −14.3% to -4.8% p

Introduction Adalimumab is an effective treatment for autoimmune non-infectious uveitis (ANIU), but it is currently only funded for a minority of patients with ANIU in the UK as it is restricted by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance. Ophthalmologists believe that adalimumab may be effective in a wider range of patients. The Adalimumab vs placebo as add-on to Standard Therapy for autoimmune Uveitis: Tolerability, Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness (ASTUTE) trial will recruit patients with ANIU who do and do not meet funding criteria and will evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adalimumab versus placebo as an add-on therapy to standard care.Methods and analysis The ASTUTE trial is a multicentre, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, pragmatic randomised controlled trial with a 16-week treatment run-in (TRI). At the end of the TRI, only responders will be randomised (1:1) to 40 mg adalimumab or placebo (both are the study investigational medicinal product) self-administered fortnightly by subcutaneous injection. The target sample size is 174 randomised participants. The primary outcome is time to treatment failure (TF), a composite of signs indicative of active ANIU. Secondary outcomes include individual TF components, retinal morphology, adverse events, health-related quality of life, patient-reported side effects and visual function, best-corrected visual acuity, employment status and resource use. In the event of TF, open-label drug treatment will be restarted as per TRI for 16 weeks, and if a participant responds again, allocation will be switched without unmasking and treatment with investigational medicinal product restarted.Ethics and dissemination The trial received Research Ethics Committee (REC) approval from South Central – Oxford B REC in June 2020. The findings will be presented at international meetings, by peer-reviewed publications and through patient organisations and newsletters to patients, where available.Trial registration ISRCTN31474800. Registered 14 April 2020.

Abstract Aim To independently assess the impact of mandatory testing using an extended DPYD variant panel (ToxNav®) and consequent dose adjustment of Capecitabine/5-FU on recorded quantitative toxicity, symptoms of depression, and hospital costs. Methods We used propensity score matching (PSM) to match 466 patients tested with ToxNav® with 1556 patients from a historical cohort, and performed regression analysis to estimate the impact of ToxNav®on toxicity, depression, and hospital costs. Results ToxNav® appeared to reduce the likelihood of experiencing moderate (OR: 0.59; 95%CI: 0.45–0.77) and severe anaemia (OR: 0.55; 95%CI: 0.33–0.90), and experience of pain for more than 4 days a week (OR: 0.50; 95%CI: 0.30–0.83), while it increased the likelihood of mild neutropenia (OR: 1.73; 95%CI: 1.27–2.35). It also reduced the cost of chemotherapy by 12% (95%CI: 3–31) or £9765, the cost of non-elective hospitalisation by 23% (95%CI: 8–36) or £2331, and the cost of critical care by 21% (95%CI: 2–36) or £1219 per patient. For the DPYD variant associated with critical risk of toxicity (rs3918290), the improved non-elective hospital costs were > £20,000, whereas variants associated with hand-foot syndrome toxicity had no detectable cost improvement. Conclusion Upfront testing of DPYD variants appears to reduce the toxicity burden of Capecitabine and 5-FU in cancer patients and can lead to substantial hospital cost savings, only if the dose management of the drugs in response to variants detected is standardised and regulated.

Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death. Surgery remains the main method of managing early-stage disease. Minimal-access video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery results in less tissue trauma than open surgery; however, it is not known if it improves patient outcomes. Objective: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy with open surgery for the treatment of lung cancer. Design, setting and participants: A multicentre, superiority, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial with blinding of participants (until hospital discharge) and outcome assessors conducted in nine NHS hospitals. Adults referred for lung resection for known or suspected lung cancer, with disease suitable for both surgeries, were eligible. Participants were followed up for 1 year. Interventions: Participants were randomised 1 : 1 to video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy or open surgery. Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery used one to four keyhole incisions without rib spreading. Open surgery used a single incision with rib spreading, with or without rib resection. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was self-reported physical function (using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30) at 5 weeks. Secondary outcomes included upstaging to pathologic node stage 2 disease, time from surgery to hospital discharge, pain in the first 2 days, prolonged pain requiring analgesia at > 5 weeks, adverse health events, uptake of adjuvant treatment, overall and disease-free survival, quality of life (Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30, Quality of Life Questionnaire Lung Cancer 13 and EQ-5D) at 2 and 5 weeks and 3, 6 and 12 months, and cost-effectiveness. Results: A total of 503 patients were randomised between July 2015 and February 2019 (video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery, n = 247; open surgery, n = 256). One participant withdrew before surgery. The mean age of patients was 69 years; 249 (49.5%) patients were men and 242 (48.1%) did not have a confirmed diagnosis. Lobectomy was performed in 453 of 502 (90.2%) participants and complete resection was achieved in 429 of 439 (97.7%) participants. Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 physical function was better in the video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery group than in the open-surgery group at 5 weeks (video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery, n = 247; open surgery, n = 255; mean difference 4.65, 95% confidence interval 1.69 to 7.61; p = 0.0089). Upstaging from clinical node stage 0 to pathologic node stage 1 and from clinical node stage 0 or 1 to pathologic node stage 2 was similar (p ≥ 0.50). Pain scores were similar on day 1, but lower in the video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery group on day 2 (mean difference –0.54, 95% confidence interval –0.99 to –0.09; p = 0.018). Analgesic consumption was 10% lower (95% CI –20% to 1%) and the median hospital stay was less (4 vs. 5 days, hazard ratio 1.34, 95% confidence interval 1.09, 1.65; p = 0.006) in the video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery group than in the open-surgery group. Prolonged pain was also less (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 0.94; p = 0.003). Time to uptake of adjuvant treatment, overall survival and progression-free survival were similar (p ≥ 0.28). Fewer participants in the video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery group than in the open-surgery group experienced complications before and after discharge from hospital (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.84; p

Abstract Background Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) adversely affects outcomes after cardiac surgery. A major mediator of AKI is the activation of leukocytes through exposure to the cardiopulmonary bypass circuit. We evaluate the use of leukodepletion filters throughout bypass to protect against post-operative AKI by removing activated leukocytes during cardiac surgery. Methods This is a single-centre, double-blind, randomized controlled trial comparing the use of leukodepletion versus a standard arterial filter throughout bypass. Elective adult patients undergoing heart valve surgery with or without concomitant procedures were investigated. The primary clinical outcome measured was the development of AKI according to the KDIGO criteria. Secondary measures included biomarkers of renal tubular damage (urinary Retinol Binding Protein and Kidney Injury Molecule-1), glomerular kidney injury (urinary Micro Albumin and serum Cystatin C) and urinary Neutrophil Gelatinase Associated Lipocalin, as well as the length of hospital stay and quality of life measures through EQ-5D-5L questionnaires. Results The ROLO trial randomized 64 participants with a rate of recruitment higher than anticipated (57% achieved, 40% anticipated). The incidence of AKI was greater in the leukodepletion filter group (44% versus 23%, risk difference 21, 95% CI − 2 to 44%). This clinical finding was supported by biomarker levels especially by a tendency toward glomerular insult at 48 h, demonstrated by a raised serum Cystatin C (mean difference 0.11, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.23, p = 0.068) in the leukodepleted group. There was however no clear association between the incidence or severity of AKI and length of hospital stay. On average, health related quality of life returned to pre-operative levels in both groups within 3 months of surgery. Conclusions Leukocyte depletion during cardiopulmonary bypass does not significantly reduce the incidence of AKI after valvular heart surgery. Other methods to ameliorate renal dysfunction after cardiac surgery need to be investigated. Trial registration The trial was registered by the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Registry ISRCTN42121335 . Registered on the 18 February 2014. The trial was run by the Bristol Clinical Trials and Evaluation Unit. This trial was financially supported by the National Institute of Health Research (Research for Patient Benefit), award ID: PB-PG-0711-25,090.

Background: When a cardiac arrest occurs, cardiopulmonary resuscitation should be started immediately. However, there is limited evidence about the best approach to airway management during cardiac arrest. Objective: The objective was to determine whether or not the i-gel® (Intersurgical Ltd, Wokingham, UK) supraglottic airway is superior to tracheal intubation as the initial advanced airway management strategy in adults with non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Design: This was a pragmatic, open, parallel, two-group, multicentre, cluster randomised controlled trial. A cost-effectiveness analysis accompanied the trial. Setting: The setting was four ambulance services in England. Participants: Patients aged ≥ 18 years who had a non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and were attended by a participating paramedic were enrolled automatically under a waiver of consent between June 2015 and August 2017. Follow-up ended in February 2018. Intervention: Paramedics were randomised 1 : 1 to use tracheal intubation (764 paramedics) or i-gel (759 paramedics) for their initial advanced airway management and were unblinded. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was modified Rankin Scale score at hospital discharge or 30 days after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, whichever occurred earlier, collected by assessors blinded to allocation. The modified Rankin Scale, a measure of neurological disability, was dichotomised: a score of 0–3 (good outcome) or 4–6 (poor outcome/death). The primary outcome for the economic evaluation was quality-adjusted life-years, estimated using the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version. Results: A total of 9296 patients (supraglottic airway group, 4886; tracheal intubation group, 4410) were enrolled [median age 73 years; 3373 (36.3%) women]; modified Rankin Scale score was known for 9289 patients. Characteristics were similar between groups. A total of 6.4% (311/4882) of patients in the supraglottic airway group and 6.8% (300/4407) of patients in the tracheal intubation group had a good outcome (adjusted difference in proportions of patients experiencing a good outcome: –0.6%, 95% confidence interval –1.6% to 0.4%). The supraglottic airway group had a higher initial ventilation success rate than the tracheal intubation group [87.4% (4255/4868) vs. 79.0% (3473/4397), respectively; adjusted difference in proportions of patients: 8.3%, 95% confidence interval 6.3% to 10.2%]; however, patients in the tracheal intubation group were less likely to receive advanced airway management than patients in the supraglottic airway group [77.6% (3419/4404) vs. 85.2% (4161/4883), respectively]. Regurgitation rate was similar between the groups [supraglottic airway group, 26.1% (1268/4865); tracheal intubation group, 24.5% (1072/4372); adjusted difference in proportions of patients: 1.4%, 95% confidence interval –0.6% to 3.4%], as was aspiration rate [supraglottic airway group, 15.1% (729/4824); tracheal intubation group, 14.9% (647/4337); adjusted difference in proportions of patients: 0.1%, 95% confidence interval –1.5% to 1.8%]. The longer-term outcomes were also similar between the groups (modified Rankin Scale: at 3 months, odds ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.14; at 6 months, odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.16). Sensitivity analyses did not alter the overall findings. There were no unexpected serious adverse events. Mean quality-adjusted life-years to 6 months were 0.03 in both groups (supraglottic airway group minus tracheal intubation group difference –0.0015, 95% confidence interval –0.0059 to 0.0028), and total costs were £157 (95% confidence interval –£270 to £583) lower in the tracheal intubation group. Although the point estimate of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio suggested that tracheal intubation may be cost-effective, the huge uncertainty around this result indicates no evidence of a difference between groups. Limitations: Limitations included imbalance in the number of patients in each group, caused by unequal distribution of high-enrolling paramedics; crossover between groups; and the fact that participating paramedics, who were volunteers, might not be representative of all paramedics in the UK. Findings may not be applicable to other countries. Conclusion: Among patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, randomisation to the supraglottic airway group compared with the tracheal intubation group did not result in a difference in outcome at 30 days. There were no notable differences in costs, outcomes and overall cost-effectiveness between the groups. Future work: Future work could compare alternative supraglottic airway types with tracheal intubation; include a randomised trial of bag mask ventilation versus supraglottic airways; and involve other patient populations, including children, people with trauma and people in hospital. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN08256118. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and supported by the NIHR Comprehensive Research Networks and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 21. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Abstract Background Deciding whether to discontinue antibiotics at early review is a cornerstone of hospital antimicrobial stewardship practice worldwide. In England, this approach is described in government guidance (‘Start Smart then Focus’). However,

Abstract Background To reduce inappropriate antibiotic use, public health campaigns often provide fear-based information about antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Meta-analyses have found that fear-based campaigns in other contexts are likely to be ineffective unless respondents feel confident they can carry out the recommended behaviour (‘self-efficacy’). This study aimed to test the likely impact of fear-based messages, with and without empowering self-efficacy elements, on patient consultations/antibiotic requests for influenza-like illnesses, using a randomised design. Methods We hypothesised that fear-based messages containing empowering information about self-management without antibiotics would be more effective than fear alone, particularly in a pre-specified subgroup with low AMR awareness. Four thousand respondents from an online panel, representative of UK adults, were randomised to receive three different messages about antibiotic use and AMR, designed to induce fear about AMR to varying degrees. Two messages (one ‘strong-fear’, one ‘mild-fear’) also contained empowering information regarding influenza-like symptoms being easily self-managed without antibiotics. The main outcome measures were self-reported effect of information on likelihood of visiting a doctor and requesting antibiotics, for influenza-like illness, analysed separately according to whether or not the AMR information was ‘very/somewhat new’ to respondents, pre-specified based on a previous (non-randomised) survey. Results The ‘fear-only’ message was ‘very/somewhat new’ to 285/1000 (28.5%) respondents, ‘mild-fear-plus-empowerment’ to 336/1500 (22.4%), and ‘strong-fear-plus-empowerment’ to 388/1500 (25.9%) (p = 0.002). Of those for whom the respective information was ‘very/somewhat new’, only those given the ‘strong-fear-plus-empowerment’ message said they would be less likely to request antibiotics if they visited a doctor for an influenza-like illness (p

BackgroundDelayed (or "backup") antibiotic prescription, where the patient is given a prescription but advised to delay initiating antibiotics, has been shown to be effective in reducing antibiotic use in primary care. However, this strategy is not widely used in the United Kingdom. This study aimed to identify factors influencing preferences among the UK public for delayed prescription, and understand their relative importance, to help increase appropriate use of this prescribing option.Methods and findingsWe conducted an online choice experiment in 2 UK general population samples: adults and parents of children under 18 years. Respondents were presented with 12 scenarios in which they, or their child, might need antibiotics for a respiratory tract infection (RTI) and asked to choose either an immediate or a delayed prescription. Scenarios were described by 7 attributes. Data were collected between November 2018 and February 2019. Respondent preferences were modelled using mixed-effects logistic regression. The survey was completed by 802 adults and 801 parents (75% of those who opened the survey). The samples reflected the UK population in age, sex, ethnicity, and country of residence. The most important determinant of respondent choice was symptom severity, especially for cough-related symptoms. In the adult sample, the probability of choosing delayed prescription was 0.53 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50 to 0.56, p < 0.001) for a chesty cough and runny nose compared to 0.30 (0.28 to 0.33, p < 0.001) for a chesty cough with fever, 0.47 (0.44 to 0.50, p < 0.001) for sore throat with swollen glands, and 0.37 (0.34 to 0.39, p < 0.001) for sore throat, swollen glands, and fever. Respondents were less likely to choose delayed prescription with increasing duration of illness (odds ratio (OR) 0.94 (0.92 to 0.96, p < 0.001)). Probabilities of choosing delayed prescription were similar for parents considering treatment for a child (44% of choices versus 42% for adults, p = 0.04). However, parents differed from the adult sample in showing a more marked reduction in choice of the delayed prescription with increasing duration of illness (OR 0.83 (0.80 to 0.87) versus 0.94 (0.92 to 0.96) for adults, p for heterogeneity p < 0.001) and a smaller effect of disruption of usual activities (OR 0.96 (0.95 to 0.97) versus 0.93 (0.92 to 0.94) for adults, p for heterogeneity p < 0.001). Females were more likely to choose a delayed prescription than males for minor symptoms, particularly minor cough (probability 0.62 (0.58 to 0.66, p < 0.001) for females and 0.45 (0.41 to 0.48, p < 0.001) for males). Older people, those with a good understanding of antibiotics, and those who had not used antibiotics recently showed similar patterns of preferences. Study limitations include its hypothetical nature, which may not reflect real-life behaviour; the absence of a "no prescription" option; and the possibility that study respondents may not represent the views of population groups who are typically underrepresented in online surveys.ConclusionsThis study found that delayed prescription appears to be an acceptable approach to reducing antibiotic consumption. Certain groups appear to be more amenable to delayed prescription, suggesting particular opportunities for increased use of this strategy. Prescribing choices for sore throat may need additional explanation to ensure patient acceptance, and parents in particular may benefit from reassurance about the usual duration of these illnesses.

Abstract Background A multi-disciplinary approach to promote engagement, inform decision-making and support clinicians and patients is increasingly advocated to realise the potential of genome-scale sequencing in the clinic for patient benefit. Here we describe the results of establishing a genomic medicine multi-disciplinary team (GM-MDT) for case selection, processing, interpretation and return of results. Methods We report a consecutive case series of 132 patients (involving 10 medical specialties with 43.2% cases having a neurological disorder) undergoing exome sequencing over a 10-month period following the establishment of the GM-MDT in a UK NHS tertiary referral hospital. The costs of running the MDT are also reported. Results In total 76 cases underwent exome sequencing following triage by the GM-MDT with a clinically reportable molecular diagnosis in 24 (31.6%). GM-MDT composition, operation and rationale for whether to proceed to sequencing are described, together with the health economics (cost per case for the GM-MDT was £399.61), the utility and informativeness of exome sequencing for molecular diagnosis in a range of traits, the impact of choice of sequencing strategy on molecular diagnostic rates and challenge of defining pathogenic variants. In 5 cases (6.6%), an alternative clinical diagnosis was indicated by sequencing results. Examples were also found where findings from initial genetic testing were reconsidered in the light of exome sequencing including TP63 and PRKAG2 (detection of a partial exon deletion and a mosaic missense pathogenic variant respectively); together with tissue-specific mosaicism involving a cytogenetic abnormality following a normal prenatal array comparative genomic hybridization. Conclusions This consecutive case series describes the results and experience of a multidisciplinary team format that was found to promote engagement across specialties and facilitate return of results to the responsible clinicians.

Abstract Background To ensure patients continue to get early access to antibiotics at admission, while also safely reducing antibiotic use in hospitals, one needs to target the continued need for antibiotics as more diagnostic information becomes available. UK Department of Health guidance promotes an initiative called ‘Start Smart then Focus’: early effective antibiotics followed by active ‘review and revision’ 24–72 h later. However in 2017,

Abstract Background For many infectious conditions, the optimal antibiotic course length remains unclear. The estimation of course length must consider the important trade-off between maximising short- and long-term efficacy and minimising antibiotic resistance and toxicity. Main body Evidence on optimal treatment durations should come from randomised controlled trials. However, most antibiotic randomised controlled trials compare two arbitrarily chosen durations. We argue that alternative trial designs, which allow allocation of patients to multiple different treatment durations, are needed to better identify optimal antibiotic durations. There are important considerations when deciding which design is most useful in identifying optimal treatment durations, including the ability to model the duration–response relationship (or duration–response ‘curve’), the risk of allocation concealment bias, statistical efficiency, the possibility to rapidly drop arms that are clearly inferior, and the possibility of modelling the trade-off between multiple competing outcomes. Conclusion Multi-arm designs modelling duration–response curves with the possibility to drop inferior arms during the trial could provide more information about the optimal duration of antibiotic therapies than traditional head-to-head comparisons of limited numbers of durations, while minimising the probability of assigning trial participants to an ineffective treatment regimen.

The emergence of next-generation genomic sequencing (NGS) tests for use in clinical care has generated widespread interest around the globe, but little is known about the availability and funding of these tests worldwide. We examined NGS availability across world regions and countries, with a particular focus on availability of three key NGS tests—Whole-Exome Sequencing or Whole-Genome Sequencing for diagnosis of suspected genetic diseases such as intellectual disability disorders or rare diseases, non-invasive prenatal testing for common genetic abnormalities in fetuses and tumor sequencing for therapy selection and monitoring of cancer treatment. We found that these NGS tests are available or becoming available in every major region of the world. This includes both high-income countries with robust genomic programmes such as the USA and the UK, and growing availability in countries with upper-middle-income economies. We used exploratory case studies across three diverse health care systems (publicly funded/national (UK), publicly funded/provincial (Canada) and mixed private/public system (USA)) to illustrate the funding challenges and approaches used to address those challenges that might be adopted by other countries. We conclude by assessing what type of data and initiatives will be needed to better track and understand the use of NGS around the world as such testing continues to expand.

Introduction Gabapentin is an antiepileptic drug currently licensed to treat epilepsy and neuropathic pain but has been used off-label to treat acute postoperative pain. The GAP study will compare the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and safety of gabapentin as an adjunct to standard multimodal analgesia versus placebo for the management of pain after major surgery.Methods and analysis The GAP study is a multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial in patients aged 18 years and over, undergoing different types of major surgery (cardiac, thoracic or abdominal). Patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive either gabapentin (600 mg just before surgery and 600 mg/day for 2 days after surgery) or placebo in addition to usual pain management for each type of surgery. Patients will be followed up daily until hospital discharge and then at 4 weeks and 4 months after surgery. The primary outcome is length of hospital stay following surgery. Secondary outcomes include pain, total opioid use, adverse health events, health related quality of life and costs.Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee . Findings will be shared with participating hospitals and disseminated to the academic community through peer-reviewed publications and presentation at national and international meetings. Patients will be informed of the results through patient organisations and participant newsletters.Trial registration number ISRCTN63614165.

Abstract Background Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) is the recommended preventative treatment for secondary ischaemic events, but increases the risk of bleeding, potentially affecting patients’ health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL). Varied utility decrements have been used in cost-effectiveness models assessing alternative DAPT regimens, but it is unclear which of these decrements are most appropriate. Therefore, we reviewed existing sources of utility decrements for bleeds in patients receiving DAPT and undertook primary research to estimate utility decrements through a patient elicitation exercise using vignettes and the EuroQol EQ-5D. Methods MEDLINE, PubMed and references of included studies were searched. Primary research and decision analytic modelling studies reporting utility decrements for bleeds related to DAPT were considered. For the primary research study, 21 participants completed an elicitation exercise involving vignettes describing minor and major bleeds and the EQ-5D-3 L and EQ-5D-5 L. Utility decrements were derived using linear regression and compared to existing estimates. Results Four hundred forty-two citations were screened, of which 12 studies were included for review. Reported utility decrements ranged from − 0.002 to − 0.03 for minor bleeds and − 0.007 to − 0.05 for major bleeds. Data sources used to estimate the decrements, however, lacked relevance to our population group and few studies adequately reported details of their measurement and valuation approaches. No study completely adhered to reimbursement agency requirements in the UK according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence reference case. Our primary research elicited utility decrements overlapped existing estimates, ranging from − 0.000848 to − 0.00828 for minor bleeds and − 0.0187 to − 0.0621 for major bleeds. However, the magnitude of difference depended on the instrument, estimation method and valuation approach applied. Conclusions Several sources of utility decrements for bleeds are available for use in cost-effectiveness analyses, but are of limited quality and relevance. Our elicitation exercise has derived utility decrements from a relevant patient population, based on standardised definitions of minor and major bleeding events, using a validated HRQoL instrument and have been valued using general population tariffs. We suggest that our utility decrements be used in future cost-effectiveness analyses of DAPT.

Abstract Background One of the functions of the reformed Cancer Drugs Fund in England is as a managed access fund, providing conditional funding for cancer drugs where there is uncertainty in the economic case, and where that uncertainty can be addressed by data collection during two years’ use in the NHS. Our study characterises likely sources of such uncertainty, through a review of recent NICE Technology Appraisals. Methods Discussions of uncertainty in NICE Appraisal Committees were extracted from published Single Technology Appraisals of cancer drugs, 2014–2016, and categorised inductively. The location of the comments within the structured Appraisal document was used as a proxy for the degree of concern shown by the Committee. Results Twenty-nine appraisals were analysed, of which 23 (79%) were recommended for funding. Six main sources of uncertainty were identified. Immaturity of survival data, and issues relating to comparators, were common sources of uncertainty regardless of degree of concern. Uncertainties relating to quality of life, and the patient population in the trial, were discussed frequently but rarely occurred in the more uncertain appraisals. Concerns with trial design, and cost uncertainty, were less common, but a high proportion contributed to the most uncertain appraisals. Funding decisions were not driven by uncertainty in the evidence base, but by the expected cost per QALY relative to acceptance thresholds, and the resultant level of uncertainty in the decision. Conclusions The reformed CDF is an improvement on its predecessor. However the main types of uncertainty seen in recent cancer appraisals will not readily be resolved solely by 2 years’ RWD collection in the reformed CDF; where there are no ongoing trials to provide longer-term data, randomised trials rather than RWD may be needed to fully resolve questions of relative efficacy. Other types of uncertainty, and concerns with generalisability, may be more amenable to the RWD approach, and it is these that we expect to be the focus of data collection arrangements in the reformed CDF.

Abstract Background The Scottish Medicines Consortium evaluates new drugs for use in the National Health Service in Scotland. Reforms in 2014 to their evaluation process aimed to increase patient access to new drugs for end-of-life or rare conditions; the changes include additional steps in the process to gain further information from patients and clinicians, and for revised commercial agreements. This study examines the extent of any impact of the reforms on funding decisions. Method Data on the Scottish Medicines Consortium’s funding decisions during 24 months post-reform were extracted from published Advice, for descriptive statistics and thematic analysis. Comparison data were extracted for the 24 months pre-reform. Data on decisions for England by the National Institute for Clinical and Health Excellence for the same drugs were extracted from published Technology Appraisals. Results The new process was used by 90% (53/59) of cancer submissions. It is triggered if the initial advice is not to recommend, and this risk-of-rejection level is higher than in the pre-period. Thirty-eight cancer drugs obtained some level of funding through the new process, but there was no significant difference in the distribution of decision types compared to the pre-reform period. Thematic analysis of patient and clinician input showed no clear relationship between issues raised and funding decision. Differences between SMC’s and NICE’s definitions of End-of-Life did not fully explain differences in funding decisions. Conclusions The Scottish Medicines Consortium’s reforms have allowed funding of up to 38 cancer drugs that might previously have been rejected. However, the contribution of specific elements of the reforms to the final decision is unclear. The process could be improved by increased transparency in how the non-quantitative inputs influence decisions. Some disparities in funding decisions between England and Scotland are likely to remain despite recent process convergence.

Introduction Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide and surgery remains the main treatment for early stage disease. Prior to the introduction of video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS), lung resection for cancer was undertaken through an open thoracotomy. To date, the evidence base supporting the different surgical approaches is based on non-randomised studies, small randomised trials and is focused mainly on short-term in-hospital outcomes.Methods and analysis The VIdeo assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy versus conventional Open LobEcTomy for lung cancer study is a UK multicentre parallel group randomised controlled trial (RCT) with blinding of outcome assessors and participants (to hospital discharge) comparing the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of VATS lobectomy versus open lobectomy for treatment of lung cancer. We will test the hypothesis that VATS lobectomy is superior to open lobectomy with respect to self-reported physical function 5 weeks after randomisation (approximately 1 month after surgery). Secondary outcomes include assessment of efficacy (hospital stay, pain, proportion and time to uptake of chemotherapy), measures of safety (adverse health events), oncological outcomes (proportion of patients upstaged to pathologic N2 (pN2) disease and disease-free survival), overall survival and health related quality of life to 1 year. The QuinteT Recruitment Intervention is integrated into the trial to optimise recruitment.Ethics and dissemination This trial has been approved by the UK (Dulwich) National Research Ethics Service Committee London. Findings will be written-up as methodology papers for conference presentation, and publication in peer-reviewed journals. Many aspects of the feasibility work will inform surgical RCTs in general and these will be reported at methodology meetings. We will also link with lung cancer clinical studies groups. The patient and public involvement group that works with the Respiratory Biomedical Research Unit at the Brompton Hospital will help identify how we can best publicise the findings.Trial registration number ISRCTN13472721

Objective To identify the key drivers of cost-effectiveness for cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) when patients activate the primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) pathway.Design Economic decision models for two patient subgroups populated from secondary sources, each with a 1 year time horizon from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services in the UK.Setting Usual care (with or without CMR) in the NHS.Participants Patients who activated the PPCI pathway, and for Model 1: underwent an emergency coronary angiogram and PPCI, and were found to have multivessel coronary artery disease. For Model 2: underwent an emergency coronary angiogram and were found to have unobstructed coronary arteries.Interventions Model 1 (multivessel disease) compared two different ischaemia testing methods, CMR or fractional flow reserve (FFR), versus stress echocardiography. Model 2 (unobstructed arteries) compared CMR with standard echocardiography versus standard echocardiography alone.Main outcome measures Key drivers of cost-effectiveness for CMR, incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.Results In both models, the incremental costs and QALYs between CMR (or FFR, Model 1) versus no CMR (stress echocardiography, Model 1 and standard echocardiography, Model 2) were small (CMR: −£64 (95% CI −£232 to £187)/FFR: £360 (95% CI −£116 to £844) and CMR/FFR: 0.0012 QALYs (95% CI −0.0076 to 0.0093)) and (£98 (95% CI −£199 to £488) and 0.0005 QALYs (95% CI −0.0050 to 0.0077)), respectively. The diagnostic accuracy of the tests was the key driver of cost-effectiveness for both patient groups.Conclusions If CMR were introduced for all subgroups of patients who activate the PPCI pathway, it is likely that diagnostic accuracy would be a key determinant of its cost-effectiveness. Further research is needed to definitively answer whether revascularisation guided by CMR or FFR leads to different clinical outcomes in acute coronary syndrome patients with multivessel disease.

Background: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is increasingly used in patients who activate the primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) pathway to assess heart function. It is uncertain whether having CMR influences patient management or the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in these patients. Objective: To determine whether or not it is feasible to set up a national registry, linking routinely collected data from hospital information systems (HISs), to investigate the role of CMR in patients who activate the PPCI pathway. Design: A feasibility prospective cohort study. Setting: Four 24/7 PPCI hospitals in England and Wales (two with and two without a dedicated CMR facility). Participants: Patients who activated the PPCI pathway and underwent an emergency coronary angiogram. Interventions: CMR either performed or not performed within 10 weeks of the index event. Main outcome measures: A. Feasibility parameters – (1) patient consent implemented at all hospitals, (2) data extracted from more than one HIS and successfully linked for > 90% of consented patients at all four hospitals, (3) HIS data successfully linked with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and Patient Episode Database Wales (PEDW) for > 90% of consented patients at all four hospitals and (4) CMR requested and carried out for ≥ 10% of patients activating the PPCI pathway in CMR hospitals. B. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness for CMR (identified from simple cost-effectiveness models) in patients with (1) multivessel disease and (2) unobstructed coronary arteries. C. A change in clinical management arising from having CMR (defined using formal consensus and identified using HES follow-up data in the 12 months after the index event). Results: A. (1) Consent was implemented (for all hospitals, consent rates were 59–74%) and 1670 participants were recruited. (2) Data submission was variable – clinical data available for ≥ 82% of patients across all hospitals, biochemistry and echocardiography (ECHO) data available for ≥ 98%, 34% and 87% of patients in three hospitals and medications data available for 97% of patients in one hospital. (3) HIS data were linked with hospital episode data for 99% of all consented patients. (4) At the two CMR hospitals, 14% and 20% of patients received CMR. B. In both (1) multivessel disease and (2) unobstructed coronary arteries, the difference in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between CMR and no CMR [‘current’ comparator, stress ECHO and standard ECHO, respectively] was very small [0.0012, 95% confidence interval (CI) –0.0076 to 0.0093 and 0.0005, 95% CI –0.0050 to 0.0077, respectively]. The diagnostic accuracy of the ischaemia tests was the key driver of cost-effectiveness in sensitivity analyses for both patient subgroups. C. There was consensus that CMR leads to clinically important changes in management in five patient subgroups. Some changes in management were successfully identified in hospital episode data (e.g. new diagnoses/procedures, frequency of outpatient episodes related to cardiac events), others were not (e.g. changes in medications, new diagnostic tests). Conclusions: A national registry is not currently feasible. Patients were consented successfully but conventional consent could not be implemented nationally. Linking HIS and hospital episode data was feasible but HIS data were not uniformly available. It is feasible to identify some, but not all, changes in management in the five patient subgroups using hospital episode data. The delay in obtaining hospital episode data influenced the relevance of some of our study objectives. Future work: To test the feasibility of conducting the study using national data sets (e.g. HES, British Cardiovascular Intervention Society audit database, Diagnostic Imaging Dataset, Clinical Practice Research Datalink). Funding: The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme. This study was designed and delivered in collaboration with the Clinical Trials and Evaluation Unit, a UK Clinical Research Collaboration-registered clinical trials unit that, as part of the Bristol Trials Centre, is in receipt of NIHR clinical trials unit support funding.

Introduction‘Real world’ bleeding in patients exposed to different regimens of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) and triple therapy (TT, DAPT plus an anticoagulant) have a clinical and economic impact but have not been previously quantified.Methods and analysisWe will use linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data to assemble populations eligible for three ‘target trials’ in patient groups: percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG); conservatively managed (medication only) acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Patients ≥18 years old will be eligible if, in CPRD records, they have: ≥1 year of data before the index event; no prescription for DAPT or anticoagulants in the preceding 3 months; a prescription for aspirin or DAPT within 2 months after discharge from the index event. The primary outcome will be any bleeding event (CPRD or HES) up to 12 months after the index event. We will estimate adjusted HR for time to first bleeding event comparing: aspirin and clopidogrel (reference) versus aspirin and prasugrel or aspirin and ticagrelor after PCI; and aspirin (reference) versus aspirin and clopidogrel after CABG and ACS. We will describe rates of bleeding in patients prescribed TT (DAPT plus an anticoagulant). Potential confounders will be identified systematically using literature review, semistructured interviews with clinicians and a short survey of clinicians. We will conduct sensitivity analyses addressing the robustness of results to the study’s main limitation—that we will not be able to identify the intervention group for patients whose bleeding event occurs before a DAPT prescription in CPRD.Ethics and disseminationThis protocol was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee for the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency Database Research (protocol 16_126R) and the South West Cornwall and Plymouth Research Ethics Committee (17/SW/0092). The findings will be presented in peer-reviewed journals, lay summaries and briefing papers to commissioners/other stakeholders.Trial registration number76607611; Pre-results.

Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) account for a significant portion of inappropriate antibiotic use. Patient expectations for antibiotics for ILI are likely to play a substantial role in ‘unnecessary’ antibiotic consumption. This study aimed to investigate trends in awareness of appropriate antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Three sequential online surveys of independent representative samples of adults in the United Kingdom investigated expectations for, and consumption of, antibiotics for ILI (May/June 2015 (n = 2064); Oct/Nov 2016 (n = 4000); Mar 2017 (n = 4000)). Respondents were asked whether they thought antibiotics were effective for ILI and about their antibiotic use. Proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for each question and interactions with respondent characteristics were tested using logistic regression. Over the three surveys, the proportion of respondents who believed antibiotics would “definitely/probably” help an ILI fell from 37% (95% CI 35–39%) to 28% (95% CI 26–29%). Those who would “definitely/probably” visit a doctor in this situation fell from 48% (95% CI 46–50%) to 36% (95% CI 34–37%), while those who would request antibiotics during a consultation fell from 39% (95% CI 37–41%) to 30% (95% CI 29–32%). The percentage of respondents who found the information we provided about AMR “new/surprising” fell from 34% (95% CI 32–36%) to 28% (95% CI 26–31%). Awareness improved more among black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) than white people, with little other evidence of differences in improvements between subgroups. Whilst a degree of selection bias is unavoidable in online survey samples, the results suggest that awareness of AMR and appropriate antibiotic use has recently significantly improved in the United Kingdom, according to a wide range of indicators.

Delayed antibiotic prescription in primary care has been shown to reduce antibiotic consumption, without increasing risk of complications, yet is not widely used in the UK. We sought to quantify the relative importance of factors affecting the decision to give a delayed prescription, using a stated-choice survey among UK general practitioners. Respondents were asked whether they would provide a delayed or immediate prescription in fifteen hypothetical consultations, described by eight attributes. They were also asked if they would prefer not to prescribe antibiotics. The most important determinants of choice between immediate and delayed prescription were symptoms, duration of illness, and the presence of multiple comorbidities. Respondents were more likely to choose a delayed prescription if the patient preferred not to have antibiotics, but consultation length had little effect. When given the option, respondents chose not to prescribe antibiotics in 51% of cases, with delayed prescription chosen in 21%. Clinical features remained important. Patient preference did not affect the decision to give no antibiotics. We suggest that broader dissemination of the clinical evidence supporting use of delayed prescription for specific presentations may help increase appropriate use. Establishing patient preferences regarding antibiotics may help to overcome concerns about patient acceptance. Increasing consultation length appears unlikely to affect the use of delayed prescription.

Background: Anaemia, coagulopathic bleeding and transfusion are strongly associated with organ failure, sepsis and death following cardiac surgery. Objective: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of medical devices used as diagnostic and therapeutic tools for the management of anaemia and bleeding in cardiac surgery. Methods and results: Workstream 1 – in the COagulation and Platelet laboratory Testing in Cardiac surgery (COPTIC) study we demonstrated that risk assessment using baseline clinical factors predicted bleeding with a high degree of accuracy. The results from point-of-care (POC) platelet aggregometry or viscoelastometry tests or an expanded range of laboratory reference tests for coagulopathy did not improve predictive accuracy beyond that achieved with the clinical risk score alone. The routine use of POC tests was not cost-effective. A systematic review concluded that POC-based algorithms are not clinically effective. We developed two new clinical risk prediction scores for transfusion and bleeding that are available as e-calculators. Workstream 2 – in the PAtient-SPecific Oxygen monitoring to Reduce blood Transfusion during heart surgery (PASPORT) trial and a systematic review we demonstrated that personalised near-infrared spectroscopy-based algorithms for the optimisation of tissue oxygenation, or as indicators for red cell transfusion, were neither clinically effective nor cost-effective. Workstream 3 – in the REDWASH trial we failed to demonstrate a reduction in inflammation or organ injury in recipients of mechanically washed red cells compared with standard (unwashed) red cells. Limitations: Existing studies evaluating the predictive accuracy or effectiveness of POC tests of coagulopathy or near-infrared spectroscopy were at high risk of bias. Interventions that alter red cell transfusion exposure, a common surrogate outcome in most trials, were not found to be clinically effective. Conclusions: A systematic assessment of devices in clinical use as blood management adjuncts in cardiac surgery did not demonstrate clinical effectiveness or cost-effectiveness. The contribution of anaemia and coagulopathy to adverse clinical outcomes following cardiac surgery remains poorly understood. Further research to define the pathogenesis of these conditions may lead to more accurate diagnoses, more effective treatments and potentially improved clinical outcomes. Study registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN20778544 (COPTIC study) and PROSPERO CRD42016033831 (systematic review) (workstream 1); Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN23557269 (PASPORT trial) and PROSPERO CRD4201502769 (systematic review) (workstream 2); and Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27076315 (REDWASH trial) (workstream 3). Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 5, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BackgroundSingle gene tests to predict whether cancers respond to specific targeted therapies are performed increasingly often. Advances in sequencing technology, collectively referred to as next generation sequencing (NGS), mean the entire cancer genome or parts of it can now be sequenced at speed with increased depth and sensitivity. However, translation of NGS into routine cancer care has been slow. Healthcare stakeholders are unclear about the clinical utility of NGS and are concerned it could be an expensive addition to cancer diagnostics, rather than an affordable alternative to single gene testing.Methods and findingsWe validated a 46-gene hotspot cancer panel assay allowing multiple gene testing from small diagnostic biopsies. From 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013, solid tumour samples (including non-small-cell lung carcinoma [NSCLC], colorectal carcinoma, and melanoma) were sequenced in the context of the UK National Health Service from 351 consecutively submitted prospective cases for which treating clinicians thought the patient had potential to benefit from more extensive genetic analysis. Following histological assessment, tumour-rich regions of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) sections underwent macrodissection, DNA extraction, NGS, and analysis using a pipeline centred on Torrent Suite software. With a median turnaround time of seven working days, an integrated clinical report was produced indicating the variants detected, including those with potential diagnostic, prognostic, therapeutic, or clinical trial entry implications. Accompanying phenotypic data were collected, and a detailed cost analysis of the panel compared with single gene testing was undertaken to assess affordability for routine patient care. Panel sequencing was successful for 97% (342/351) of tumour samples in the prospective cohort and showed 100% concordance with known mutations (detected using cobas assays). At least one mutation was identified in 87% (296/342) of tumours. A locally actionable mutation (i.e., available targeted treatment or clinical trial) was identified in 122/351 patients (35%). Forty patients received targeted treatment, in 22/40 (55%) cases solely due to use of the panel. Examination of published data on the potential efficacy of targeted therapies showed theoretically actionable mutations (i.e., mutations for which targeted treatment was potentially appropriate) in 66% (71/107) and 39% (41/105) of melanoma and NSCLC patients, respectively. At a cost of £339 (US$449) per patient, the panel was less expensive locally than performing more than two or three single gene tests. Study limitations include the use of FFPE samples, which do not always provide high-quality DNA, and the use of "real world" data: submission of cases for sequencing did not always follow clinical guidelines, meaning that when mutations were detected, patients were not always eligible for targeted treatments on clinical grounds.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that more extensive tumour sequencing can identify mutations that could improve clinical decision-making in routine cancer care, potentially improving patient outcomes, at an affordable level for healthcare providers.

Bariatric surgery is considered an effective treatment for individuals with severe and complex obesity. Besides reducing weight and improving obesity related comorbidities such as diabetes, bariatric surgery could improve patients' health-related quality of life. However, the frequently used instrument to measure quality of life, the EQ-5D has not been validated for use in bariatric surgery, which is a major limitation to its use in this clinical context. Our study undertook a psychometric validation of the 5 level EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) using clinical trial data to measure health-related quality of life in patients with severe and complex obesity undergoing bariatric surgery. Health-related quality of life was assessed at baseline (before randomisation) and six months later in 189 patients in a randomised controlled trial of bariatric surgery. Patients completed two generic health-related quality of life instruments, the EQ-5D-5L and SF-12, which were used together for the validation using data from all patients in the trial as the trial is ongoing. Psychometric analyses included construct and criterion validity and responsiveness to change. Of the 189 validation patients, 141 (75%) were female, the median age was 49 years old (range 23-70 years) and body mass index ranged from 33-70 kg/m2. For construct validity, there were significant improvements in the distribution of responses in all EQ-5D dimensions between baseline and 6 months after randomisation. For criterion validity, the highest degree of correlation was between the EQ-5D pain/discomfort and SF-12 bodily pain domain. For responsiveness the EQ-5D and SF-12 showed statistically significant improvements in health-related quality of life between baseline and 6 months after randomisation. The EQ-5D-5L is a valid generic measure for measuring health-related quality of life in bariatric surgery patients.

BackgroundBariatric and metabolic surgery is used as a treatment for patients with severe and complex obesity. However, there is a need to improve outcome selection and reporting in bariatric surgery trials. A Core Outcome Set (COS), an agreed minimum set of outcomes reported in all studies of a specific condition, may achieve this. Here, we present the development of a COS for BARIAtric and metabolic surgery Clinical Trials-the BARIACT Study.Methods and findingsOutcomes identified from systematic reviews and patient interviews informed a questionnaire survey. Patients and health professionals were surveyed three times and asked to rate the importance of each item on a 1-9 scale. Delphi methods provided anonymised feedback to participants. Items not meeting predefined criteria were discarded between rounds. Remaining items were discussed at consensus meetings, held separately with patients and professionals, where the COS was agreed. Data sources identified 2,990 outcomes, which were used to develop a 130-item questionnaire. Round 1 response rates were moderate but subsequently improved to above 75% for other rounds. After rounds 2 and 3, 81 and 14 items were discarded, respectively, leaving 35 items for discussion at consensus meetings. The final COS included nine items: "weight," "diabetes status," "cardiovascular risk," "overall quality of life (QOL)," "mortality," "technical complications of the specific operation," "any re-operation/re-intervention," "dysphagia/regurgitation," and "micronutrient status." The main limitation of this study was that it was based in the United Kingdom only.ConclusionsThe COS is recommended to be used as a minimum in all trials of bariatric and metabolic surgery. Adoption of the COS will improve data synthesis and the value of research data. Future work will establish methods for the measurement of the outcomes in the COS.

Background: Patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) usually attend regular reviews, even when the disease is quiescent. Reviews are burdensome to health services, patients and carers. Objectives: To compare the proportion of correct lesion classifications made by community-based optometrists and ophthalmologists from vignettes of patients; to estimate the cost-effectiveness of community follow-up by optometrists compared with follow-up by ophthalmologists in the Hospital Eye Service (HES); to ascertain views of patients, their representatives, optometrists, ophthalmologists and clinical commissioners on the proposed shared care model. Design: Community-based optometrists and ophthalmologists in the HES classified lesions from vignettes comprising clinical information, colour fundus photographs and optical coherence tomography images. Participants’ classifications were validated against experts’ classifications (reference standard). Setting: Internet-based application. Participants: Ophthalmologists had to have ≥ 3 years post-registration experience in ophthalmology, have passed part 1 of the Royal College of Ophthalmologists, Diploma in Ophthalmology or equivalent examination, and have experience in the age-related macular degeneration service. Optometrists had to be fully qualified, be registered with the General Optical Council for ≥ 3 years and not be participating in nAMD shared care. Interventions: The trial sought to emulate a conventional trial in comparing optometrists’ and ophthalmologists’ decision-making, but vignettes, not patients, were assessed; therefore, there were no interventions. Participants received training prior to assessing vignettes. Main outcome measures: Primary outcome – correct classification of the activity status of a lesion based on a vignette, compared with a reference standard. Secondary outcomes – frequencies of potentially sight-threatening errors, participants’ judgements about specific lesion components, participant-rated confidence in their decisions and cost-effectiveness of follow-up by community-based optometrists compared with HES ophthalmologists. Results: In total, 155 participants registered for the trial; 96 (48 in each professional group) completed training and main assessments and formed the analysis population. Optometrists and ophthalmologists achieved 1702 out of 2016 (84.4%) and 1722 out of 2016 (85.4%) correct classifications, respectively [odds ratio (OR) 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 1.25; p = 0.543]. Optometrists’ decision-making was non-inferior to ophthalmologists’ with respect to the pre-specified limit of 10% absolute difference (0.298 on the odds scale). Frequencies of sight-threatening errors were similar for optometrists and ophthalmologists [57/994 (5.7%) vs. 62/994 (6.2%), OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.57; p = 0.789]. Ophthalmologists assessed lesion components as present less often than optometrists and were more confident about their lesion classifications than optometrists. The mean care-pathway cost for assessment was very similar by group, namely £397.33 for ophthalmologists and £410.78 for optometrists. The optometrist-led monitoring reviews were slightly more costly and less effective than ophthalmologist-led reviews, although the differences were extremely small. There was consensus that optometrist-led monitoring has the potential to reduce clinical workload and be more patient-centred. However, potential barriers are ophthalmologists’ perceptions of optometrists’ competence, the need for clinical training, the ability of the professions to work collaboratively and the financial feasibility of shared care for Clinical Commissioning Groups. Conclusions: The ability of optometrists to make nAMD retreatment decisions from vignettes is non-inferior to that of ophthalmologists. Various barriers to implementing shared cared for nAMD were identified. Future work recommendations: The Effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of Community versus Hospital Eye Service follow-up for patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration with quiescent disease (ECHoES) study web application was robust and could be used for future training or research. The benefit of reducing HES workload was not considered in the economic evaluation. A framework of programme budgeting and marginal analysis could explicitly explore the resource implications of shifting resources within a given health service area, as the benefit of reducing HES workload was not considered in the economic evaluation. Future qualitative research could investigate professional differences of opinion that were identified in multidisciplinary focus groups. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN07479761. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 80. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: Uncertainty about optimal red blood cell transfusion thresholds in cardiac surgery is reflected in widely varying transfusion rates between surgeons and cardiac centres. Objective: To test the hypothesis that a restrictive compared with a liberal threshold for red blood cell transfusion after cardiac surgery reduces post-operative morbidity and health-care costs. Design: Multicentre, parallel randomised controlled trial and within-trial cost–utility analysis from a UK NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. We could not blind health-care staff but tried to blind participants. Random allocations were generated by computer and minimised by centre and operation. Setting: Seventeen specialist cardiac surgery centres in UK NHS hospitals. Participants: Patients aged > 16 years undergoing non-emergency cardiac surgery with post-operative haemoglobin

Background: Bevacizumab (Avastin®, Roche), which is used in cancer therapy, is the ‘parent’ molecule from which ranibizumab (Lucentis®, Novartis) was derived for the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). There were reports in the literature on the effectiveness of bevacizumab in treating nAMD, but no trials. The cost per dose of bevacizumab is about 5–10% that of ranibizumab. This trial was a head-to-head comparison of these two drugs. Objective: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ranibizumab and bevacizumab, and two treatment regimens, for nAMD. Design: Multicentre, factorial randomised controlled trial with within-trial cost–utility and cost-minimisation analyses from the perspective of the UK NHS. Participants, health professionals and researchers were masked to allocation of drug but not regimen. Computer-generated random allocations to combinations of ranibizumab or bevacizumab, and continuous or discontinuous regimen, were stratified by centre, blocked and concealed. Setting: Twenty-three ophthalmology departments in NHS hospitals. Participants: Patients ≥ 50 years old with active nAMD in the study eye with best corrected distance visual acuity (BCVA) ≥ 25 letters measured on a Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) chart. Previous treatment for nAMD, long-standing disease, lesion diameter > 6000 µm, thick blood at the fovea and any other confounding ocular disease were exclusion criteria. One eye per participant was studied; the fellow eye was treated according to usual care, if required. Interventions: Ranibizumab and bevacizumab were procured commercially. Doses were ranibizumab 0.5 mg or bevacizumab 1.25 mg. The repackaged bevacizumab was quality assured. All participants were treated at visits 0, 1 and 2. Participants randomised to the continuous regimen were treated monthly thereafter. Participants randomised to the discontinuous regimen were not retreated after visit 2 unless pre-specified criteria for active disease were met. If retreatment was needed, monthly injections over 3 months were mandated. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was BCVA. The non-inferiority margin was 3.5 letters. Secondary outcomes were contrast sensitivity; near visual acuity; reading index; neovascular lesion morphology; generic and disease-specific patient-reported outcomes, including macular disease-specific quality of life; survival free from treatment failure; resource use; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and development of new geographic atrophy (GA) (outcome added during the trial). Results are reported for the study eye, except for patient-reported outcomes. Results: Between 27 March 2008 and 15 October 2010, 610 participants were allocated and treated (314 ranibizumab, 296 bevacizumab; at 3 months, 305 continuous, 300 discontinuous). After 2 years, bevacizumab was neither non-inferior nor inferior to ranibizumab [–1.37 letters, 95% confidence interval (CI) –3.75 to +1.01 letters] and discontinuous treatment was neither non-inferior nor inferior to continuous treatment (–1.63 letters, 95% CI –4.01 to +0.75 letters). Lesion thickness at the fovea was similar by drug [geometric mean ratio (GMR) 0.96, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.03; p = 0.24] but 9% less with continuous treatment (GMR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.97; p = 0.004). Odds of developing new GA during the trial were similar by drug [odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.25; p = 0.46] but significantly higher with continuous treatment (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.11; p = 0.033). Safety outcomes did not differ by drug but mortality was lower with continuous treatment (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.03; p = 0.05). Continuous ranibizumab cost £3.5M per QALY compared with continuous bevacizumab; continuous bevacizumab cost £30,220 per QALY compared with discontinuous bevacizumab. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Ranibizumab and bevacizumab have similar efficacy. Discontinuing treatment and restarting when required results in slightly worse efficacy. Safety was worse with discontinuous treatment, although new GA developed more often with continuous treatment. Ranibizumab is not cost-effective, although it remains uncertain whether or not continuous bevacizumab is cost-effective compared with discontinuous bevacizumab at £20,000 per QALY threshold. Future studies should focus on the ocular safety of the two drugs, further optimisation of treatment regimens and criteria for stopping treatment. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN92166560. Funding: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 78. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: Every year approximately 5000–9000 patients are admitted to a hospital with diarrhoea, which in up to 90% of cases has a non-infectious cause. As a result, single rooms are ‘blocked’ by patients with non-infectious diarrhoea, while patients with infectious diarrhoea are still in open bays because of a lack of free side rooms. A rapid test for differentiating infectious from non-infectious diarrhoea could be very beneficial for patients. Objective: To evaluate MassCode multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the simultaneous diagnosis of multiple enteropathogens directly from stool, in terms of sensitivity/specificity to detect four common important enteropathogens: Clostridium difficile, Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp. and norovirus. Design: A retrospective study of fixed numbers of samples positive for C. difficile (n = 200), Campylobacter spp. (n = 200), Salmonella spp. (n = 100) and norovirus (n = 200) plus samples negative for all these pathogens (n = 300). Samples were sourced from NHS microbiology laboratories in Oxford and Leeds where initial diagnostic testing was performed according to Public Health England methodology. Researchers carrying out MassCode assays were blind to this information. A questionnaire survey, examining current practice for infection control teams and microbiology laboratories managing infectious diarrhoea, was also carried out. Setting: MassCode assays were carried out at Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust. Further multiplex assays, carried out using Luminex, were run on the same set of samples at Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust. The questionnaire was completed by various NHS trusts. Main outcome measures: Sensitivity and specificity to detect C. difficile, Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp., and norovirus. Results: Nucleic acids were extracted from 948 clinical samples using an optimised protocol (200 Campylobacter spp., 199 C. difficile, 60 S. enterica, 199 norovirus and 295 negative samples; some samples contained more than one pathogen). Using the MassCode assay, sensitivities for each organism compared with standard microbiological testing ranged from 43% to 94% and specificities from 95% to 98%, with particularly poor performance for S. enterica. Relatively large numbers of unexpected positives not confirmed with quantitative PCR were also observed, particularly for S. enterica, Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium spp. As the results indicated that S. enterica detection might provide generic challenges to other multiplex assays for gastrointestinal pathogens, the Luminex xTag® gastrointestinal assay was also run blinded on the same extracts (937/948 remaining) and on re-extracted samples (839/948 with sufficient material). For Campylobacter spp., C. difficile and norovirus, high sensitivities (> 92%) and specificities (> 96%) were observed. For S. enterica, on the original MassCode/Oxford extracts, Luminex sensitivity compared with standard microbiological testing was 84% [95% confidence interval (CI) 73% to 93%], but this dropped to 46% on a fresh extract, very similar to MassCode, with a corresponding increase in specificity from 92% to 99%. Overall agreement on the per-sample diagnosis compared with combined microbiology plus PCR for the main four/all pathogens was 85.6%/64.7%, 87.0%/82.9% and 89.8%/86.8% for the MassCode assay, Luminex assay/MassCode extract and Luminex assay/fresh extract, respectively. Luminex assay results from fresh extracts implied that 5% of samples did not represent infectious diarrhoea, even though enteropathogens were genuinely present. Managing infectious diarrhoea was a significant burden for infection control teams (taking 21% of their time) and better diagnostics were identified as having major potential benefits for patients. Conclusions: Overall, the Luminex xTag gastrointestinal panel showed similar or superior sensitivity and specificity to the MassCode assay. However, on fresh extracts, this test had low sensitivity to detect a key enteric pathogen, S. enterica; making it an unrealistic option for most microbiology laboratories. Extraction efficiency appears to be a major obstacle for nucleic acid-based tests for this organism, and possibly the whole Enterobacteriaceae family. To improve workflows in service microbiology laboratories, to reduce workload for infection control practitioners, and to improve outcomes for NHS patients, further research on deoxyribonucleic acid-based multiplex gastrointestinal diagnostics is urgently needed. Funding: The Health Technology Assessment programme of the National Institute for Health Research.