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We provide estimates of health priorities during the COVID-19 pandemic based on web-surveys administered in seven developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America in 2022. Using the best-worst scaling method, respondents ranked the importance of seven health problems, including COVID-19 (the others were alcohol and drugs, HIV/AIDS, malaria, TB, other respiratory diseases, and water-borne diseases). Respondents in most countries considered COVID-19 a serious problem but ranked other respiratory illness as more serious. Respondents’ rankings were generally consistent with relative disease prevalence when it can be reasonably well measured (i.e., malaria and TB). Differences in priorities across countries were generally larger than within-country differences. The importance respondents assigned to COVID-19 was associated with their knowledge of COVID-19. These results have implications for the allocation of health resources: policymakers may face resistance if their actions are viewed as focusing too much on COVID-19 while neglecting other, potentially serious health problems.

Water marketing and property right reform are intertwined. Water markets are advocated as a solution for water scarcity, but changes in water rights are often required if the scope of water marketing is to expand. This is true in many countries, including (but not limited to) the United States and Australia. The focus here is on the United States. So far, water marketing in the Western United States is not producing long-run reallocation on the scale expected. The chief impediment is the complexities in existing water rights. An important distinction is between a property right to extract water and put it to use versus a contractual right to receive water from a supply organization. In the United States, the property right to water is a unique form of property. Unlike land, it is a right of use, not ownership; the quantity afforded by the right is incompletely specified; and the ability to transfer it is constrained by the obligation to avoid harm through the externality of return flows and also by unreliable historical records of rights. These constraints are often relaxed for short-term transfers (leases) of a property right lasting only a year or two. Also, these constraints generally do not apply to a contract right to receive water. Thus, most of the surface water transferred in the United States is either contract water moving within supply system boundaries or short-term leases of appropriative rights. These transfers tend to provide short-run flexibility for water users rather than long-run reallocation. For more significant long-run reallocation of water, some modification of the property right to water is essential. Devising a politically acceptable way to make the needed changes is the ultimate constraint on water marketing.

Many aspects of asthma-in particular the relationship between beliefs, averting behaviors, and symptoms-are not directly observable from market data. An approach that combines observable market data with nonmarket valuation to gather data on unobservable aspects of the illness can improve efforts to quantify the burden of asthma if it accounts for the endogeneity in the system. Such approaches are used in the valuation of recreation but have not been widely used to value the burden of a chronic illness. We estimate parents' willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce their child's asthma symptoms using a three-equation model that combines revealed preference, contingent valuation, and burden of asthma, increasing the efficiency of estimation and correcting for endogeneity. WTP for a device that reduces a child's asthma symptoms by 50% is $125/month (s.d. $20). Parents' valuations are driven by beliefs about asthma and by their degree of worry about asthma between episodes. There is a nonlinear relationship between the number of days with symptoms and WTP per symptom day. The experience of living with asthma affects families' responses to a contingent valuation scenario, because it influences willingness to spend money to manage the illness and their subjective perceptions and beliefs about the illness itself.

Water is rising on the policy agenda as population growth and climate change intensify scarcity, shocks, and access inequalities. The conventional economic policy recommendations—privatization, pricing, and property rights—have struggled due to a failure to account adequately for the politics of water and the associated distributional conflicts. We identify distinctive social and physical characteristics of water supply and demand, and explore their implications for three central areas of water policy: financing infrastructure, pricing, and property rights reform. Growing dependence on groundwater and non-networked water supplies exacerbates these challenges and reinforces the need to rethink the economics of water and tackle the political challenges head on. Meeting the water sustainable development goals would require institutional and technological innovations to supply, allocate, and manage water, as well as a sustained political and financial commitment to address those who might be left behind.

We consider the connection between water marketing and the modification of property rights to water in Australia, highlighting the Australian’s distinctiveness through a contrast with water rights in the western US (especially California). Australia started out the same as California, but in the 1880s it abandoned California’s system and adopted a new approach, ending the common law property right to water and creating a statutory right that could be modified by administrative fiat. This shifted the arena for dispute resolution from courts to parliaments. It eliminated the seniority inherent in appropriative water rights and it sidelined issues of third-party impacts. Another difference was the tight control of irrigation institutions by state governments and the national government’s willingness to intervene in state and local water management. Australian water reform was wrapped in politics. When there were successes, this is because the politics were managed adroitly; when political challenges proved insurmountable, reform stalled.

Agriculture, environment, industry, and millions of households in the western US and northern Mexico depend on the Colorado River, which is facing increasing water shortages due to climate change and rising demand. Collaborative governance will likely be key to solving allocation issues and achieving sustainable water use but has recently faced multiple challenges. This research integrates concepts from institutional, adaptive governance, and bargaining theories to analyze barriers and facilitators to collaborative governance in the drought contingency plan (DCP) process for the lower Colorado River basin from an Arizona stakeholder’s perspective. The DCP is ultimately an effort to create a set of rules to prevent and address shortages in the basin. Through a content analysis of public meetings of the Central Arizona Project’s governing board, we find a collective DCP or future related policy may be possible. But barriers to collaborative governance have intensified over time, hindering the process and making an agreement increasingly unlikely. The process is a perfect example of the interplay between rules and norms, and the issues that arise when norms underlying rules are interpreted differently. Our analysis provides insights for the design of collaborative water governance, including that conducting an analysis of power dynamics among the stakeholders would advance the DCP process. We ultimately argue that the Colorado River basin would benefit from a transition towards adaptive governance, and that our recommendations to improve collaboration are an important initial step. Additionally, our results reveal areas that require more empirical research, including understanding how to prepare for policy windows, rapid trust building among stakeholders, and theory building related to equity and marginalization in collaborative governance processes.

ObjectiveTo determine the relative importance members of the US public place on different patient attributes in triage decisions about who should receive the last available intensive care unit (ICU) bed.MethodsA discrete choice experiment was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2000 respondents from the YouGov internet panel of US households. Respondents chose which of three hypothetical patients with COVID-19 should receive an ICU bed if only one were available. The three patients differed in age, gender, Alzheimer’s-like disability and probability of survival if the patient received the ICU bed. An experimental design varied the values of the four attributes of the three hypothetical patients with COVID-19 that a respondent saw in four choice tasks.ResultsThe most important patient attribute to respondents was the probability the patient survives COVID-19 if they get the ICU bed (OR CI: 4.41 to 6.91). There was heterogeneity among different age groups of respondents about how much age of the patient mattered. Respondents under 30 years of age were more likely to choose young patients and old patients, and less likely to select patients aged 40–60 years old. For respondents in the age group 30–49 years old, as the age of the patient declined, their preference for saving the patient declined modestly in a linear fashion.ConclusionsRespondents favoured giving the last ICU bed available to the patient with the highest probability of surviving COVID-19. Public opinion suggests a simple guideline for physician choices based on likelihood of survival as opposed to the number of life-years saved. There was heterogeneity among respondents of different age groups for allocating the last ICU bed, as well as to the importance of the patient having an Alzheimer’s-like disability (where religion of the respondent is important) and the gender of the patient (where the gender and racial identity are important).

The aging process leads to the body’s difficulty in maintaining its homeostatic balance and this, under circumstances of functional overload, generates deficits in some body systems, which may evolve with impairment of certain functions, especially due to the loss of muscle mass. Objective: to identify if there is a relationship between physical activity and skeletal muscle mass and body composition of reserve military personnel. Methods: this is a descriptive, comparative and retrospective study, in which 33 reserve military personnel were evaluated, divided into two groups who practice physical activity and non-practitioners. The instruments used were: lifestyle questionnaire, stadiometer attached to the scale, anthropometric tape and bioimpedance equipment. From these instruments, demographic variables, waist circumference, skeletal muscle mass, body mass index, fat percentage and skeletal muscle index were obtained. Results: The average age of the study participants was 58.4 years, most of whom were engaged in physical activity and were married. About physical activity, there were no differences regarding sociodemographic data, body composition and muscle mass. Conclusion: Most of the reserve military personnel were physically active. Regarding the practice of physical activity, it is possible to conclude that there is no difference between practitioners and non-practitioners with regard to sociodemographic variables and lifestyle. In addition, there were no statistically significant differences between groups regarding muscle variables and body composition. O processo de envelhecimento leva à dificuldade do corpo manter seu equilíbrio homeostático e isso, sob circunstâncias de sobrecarga funcional, gera déficit de alguns sistemas corporais, podendo evoluir com comprometimento de determinadas funções, especialmente pela perda de massa muscular. Objetivo: Avaliar a massa muscular esquelética e composição corporal dos militares da reserva. Métodos: trata-se de um estudo descritivo, comparativo e retrospectivo, em que foram avaliados 35 militares da reserva, que foram divididos em dois grupos G1 (praticantes ativos de atividade física) e (G2) não praticantes. Os instrumentos utilizados foram: questionário de estilo de vida, estadiômetro acoplado à balança, fita antropométrica e o equipamento de Bioimpedância (BIA). A partir destes instrumentos obteve-se variáveis demográficas, circunferência da cintura (CC). massa muscular esquelética (MME), índice de massa corporal (IMC), percentual de gordura (%G) e o índice de músculo esquelético (IME). Os dados foram analisados por estatística descritiva e analítica, por meio do software SPSS (v.23.0). A normalidade dos dados foi verificada pelo teste de Shapiro-Wilk. A comparação de médias entre os grupos foi verificada através do Teste t de Student para amostras independentes (variáveis paramétricas) e U de Mann-Whitney (variáveis não-paramétricas), considerando p

O processo de envelhecimento leva à dificuldade do corpo manter seu equilíbrio homeostático e isso, sob circunstâncias de sobrecarga funcional, gera déficit de alguns sistemas corporais, podendo evoluir com comprometimento de determinadas funções, especialmente pela perda de massa muscular. Objetivo: Avaliar a massa muscular esquelética e composição corporal dos militares da reserva. Métodos: trata-se de um estudo descritivo, comparativo e retrospectivo, em que foram avaliados 35 militares da reserva, que foram divididos em dois grupos G1 (praticantes ativos de atividade física) e (G2) não praticantes. Os instrumentos utilizados foram: questionário de estilo de vida, estadiômetro acoplado à balança, fita antropométrica e o equipamento de Bioimpedância (BIA). A partir destes instrumentos obteve-se variáveis demográficas, circunferência da cintura (CC). massa muscular esquelética (MME), índice de massa corporal (IMC), percentual de gordura (%G) e o índice de músculo esquelético (IME). Os dados foram analisados por estatística descritiva e analítica, por meio do software SPSS (v.23.0). A normalidade dos dados foi verificada pelo teste de Shapiro-Wilk. A comparação de médias entre os grupos foi verificada através do Teste t de Student para amostras independentes (variáveis paramétricas) e U de Mann-Whitney (variáveis não-paramétricas), considerando p0,05. Resultados: Quanto a atividade física, não houve diferença estatística nas variáveis analisadas. Em relação à idade, observou-se relação direta entre a perda de MME nos militares acima dos 60 anos, e uma relação inversa entre %G e MME. Conclusão: Conclui-se que a MME e o IME apresentaram valores mais elevados no grupo praticante de atividade física. Além disso, observa-se que as variáveis antropométricas estão inversamente relacionadas com a perda de massa muscular.

Desrvousges et al. (2012) investigate criteria for judging the adequacy of scope test differences in contingent valuation studies. They focus particular attention on our study (Chapman et al. 2009), arguing that, while it demonstrated a statistically significant scope effect, the effect is too small. Unfortunately, DMT misinterpreted Chapman et al., an error that makes DMT's criticisms of our study invalid.

The proposed interoceanic canal will connect the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean, traversing Lake Nicaragua, the major freshwater reservoir in Central America. If completed, the canal would be the largest infrastructure-related excavation project on Earth. In November 2015, the Nicaraguan government approved an environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) for the canal. A group of international experts participated in a workshop organized by the Academy of Sciences of Nicaragua to review this ESIA. The group concluded that the ESIA does not meet international standards; essential information is lacking regarding the potential impacts on the lake, freshwater and marine environments, and biodiversity. The ESIA presents an inadequate assessment of natural hazards and socioeconomic disruptions. The panel recommends that work on the canal project be suspended until an appropriate ESIA is completed. The project should be resumed only if it is demonstrated to be economically feasible, environmentally acceptable, and socially beneficial. published

Downscaled climate change projections for California, when translated into changes in irrigation water delivery and then into profit from agriculture in the Central Valley, show an increase in conventional measures of variability such as the variance. However, these increases are modest and mask a more pronounced increase in downside risk, defined as the probability of unfavorable outcomes of water supply or profit. This paper describes the concept of downside risk and measures it as it applies to outcomes for Central Valley agriculture projected under four climate change scenarios. We compare the effect of downside risk aversion versus conventional risk aversion or risk neutrality when assessing the impact of climate change on the profitability of Central Valley agriculture. We find that, when downside risk is considered, the assessment of losses due to climate change increases substantially.

Baron questions the methods and conclusions of our contingent valuation study, which assessed the economic value to the American public of the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In the study, survey respondents were each randomly assigned to be told about either (i) a set of effects of the oil

This article proposes contemporary best-practice recommendations forstated preference (SP) studies used to inform decision making, grounded in the accumulate body of peer-reviewed literature. These recommendations consider the use of SP methods to estimate both use and non-use (passive-use) values, and cover the broad SP domain, including contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments.We focus on applications to public goods in the context of the environmentand human health but also consider ways in which the proposed recommendations might apply to other common areas of application. The recommendations recognize that SP results may be used and reused (benefit transfers) by governmental agencies and nongovernmental organizations, and that all such applications must be considered.The intended result is a set of guidelines for SP studies that is more comprehensive than that of the original National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Blue Ribbon Panel on contingent valuation, is more germane to contemporary applications, and reflects the two decades of research since that time. We also distinguish between practices for which accumulated research is sufficient to support recommendations and those for which greater uncertainty remains. The goal of this article is to raise the quality of SP studies used to support decision making and promote research that will further enhance the practice of these studies worldwide.

This paper draws on the history of irrigation in the US West to address two sets of questions: First, did problems of collective action arise during the development of irrigation in that region? If so, were they successfully resolved? If so, how—did the solution align with Ostrom, 1993 . Water Resour. Res. 29 (7), 1907–1912 design principles? Second, how sustainable was the system of water management institutions and water property rights that emerged in the US West? Has it been conducive to the efficient use of water in the West, regarded as a necessary (although not sufficient) condition for sustainability? If not, why not? It is crucial to distinguish the collective action task of building an irrigation system from that of running a system once constructed. With regard to irrigation system construction and financing, the key was not trust, as some have suggested, but capital: irrigation systems are extremely capital intensive, the capital is very long-lived, it is not modular – it cannot usefully be installed bit by bit – it is marked by major economies of scale, and it is not fungible elsewhere or in other uses. This creates massive problems of contracting, default, and bankruptcy, which in fact were a hallmark of irrigation development in the West. The failure to solve collective action in system construction contrasted with the eventual success at collectively operating an irrigation system once constructed, which was accomplished through two idiosyncratic American mechanisms—mutual water companies and special government districts. The development of irrigation in the US West left a legacy of problems with the definition and administration of property rights to water, yielding a dual system with water relatively fungible within irrigation organizations but, typically, not between them. The diversity and complexity of property rights to water was a predictable consequence of the economics and politics of water development.

This article reviews the rapidly growing literature on structural models of complementary choices. It discusses recent modeling developments and identifies promising areas for future research.

Oil spills are capable of causing major environmental insults that raise the emotional loads of individuals across society. In this paper we consider the role of emotions in heterogeneous responses of individuals in the non-market valuation of an oil prevention program in Spain. Heterogeneity is modeled with a smoothly mixing regression (SMR) model that allows researchers to explain the probability that individuals belong to the latent segments of WTP. The results show that heterogeneity in WTP responses is explained by the specific emotional reactions of individuals (upset, sadness, indifference) rather than by their socioeconomic characteristics. Thus, the investigation of the emotional reactions of individuals can provide useful tools for the design of non-market valuation studies, providing more accurate predictions of the potential behavior of individuals in constructed markets for damage assessment.

Transport is essential for the control of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus a target for active policy intervention in the future. Yet, social preferences for policies are likely to play an important role. In this paper we first review the existing literature on preferences regarding low-GHG car fuels, but also covering policy instruments and strategies in this area. We then present the results of a survey of Spanish households aimed at measuring preferences for climate change policies. We find a positive willingness to pay (WTP) (in the form of higher car fuel prices) for a policy to reduce GHG emissions through biofuels. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in public preferences due to personal motivations (accounted for via factor analysis of responses to attitudinal questions) and to socio-demographic variables. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Estimation of consistent parameter estimates for recreational demand models faces challenges arising from the choice-based nature of the data collected primarily for resource management purposes. As an alternative to randomized respondent-based sampling, choice-based onsite sampling can provide information on actual choices made by a subset of the population where participation has a low incidence. While the literature has shown that under specific restrictions the estimation of choice models from onsite sampling data yields unbiased fixed parameter estimates for the conditional logit model, this result does not carry over to estimation of the random parameter logit model. We propose an estimator for the unbiased estimation of the random parameter model using choice-based data; our estimator uses weights based on information about the level of sampling effort. An empirical application of the standard and weighted discrete choice RUM models to onsite sample data on recreational fishing illustrates the advantages of the proposed estimator. The estimation results indicate the compensating variation associated with an decrease, or increase, of 50 % in expected catch rates for a recreational shoreline sportfishing trip to a man-made structure in southern California is $$-{\$}2.80$$ or $${\$}3.54$$ per trip, respectively.

This paper explores the welfare costs associated with drought plan transactions between a public municipal water agency, the El Dorado Irrigation District (EID) in California in the USA and its customers. The EID imposes a tiered pricing plan for municipal customers, which was analyzed as a discrete continuous choice (DCC) model by water users within a climate driven water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model of the EID water system. The DCC is subsequently used to estimate the compensating variation (CV) measure of the loss of consumer welfare in the case where a customer does not receive water that matches a preferred level of demand. In addition to monetized welfare loss, we look at other metrics of performance such as reservoir storage and hydropower generation. For the drought-of-record under full build-out, results show that the welfare loss to EID customers from the imposed drought plan is far less than if no drought plan were in place. This suggests that current consumption is well beyond essential needs and, without a drought plan, water shortages in the later period of a drought would generate a much greater welfare loss. Most of the cost associated with the drought plan is born by EID in the form of reduced revenues.

In their Perspective “The trouble with negative emissions” (14 October, p. [182][1] ), K. Anderson and G. Peters assert that negative-emissions technologies are an “unjust and high-stakes gamble.” This characterization would sideline negative-emissions technologies and remove potentially important options from the portfolio for mitigating and ameliorating climate change. As Anderson and Peters acknowledge, the remaining carbon budget is pitifully small; at the current rate, the world will blow through 600 Gt of CO2 in 15 years. Dumping this much CO2 in the atmosphere will almost certainly result in more than 1.5°C warming. Indeed, as advocates of a 350-ppm target point out, the remaining CO2 budget could be negative. Anderson and Peters provide no evidence that faith in negative-emissions technologies is to blame for a delay in implementing other mitigation plans or for the failure of countries to cut emissions. This failure is easily explained by the free-riding behavior of some countries ([ 1 ][2]), and taking negative-emissions technologies off the table would not make collective action any easier. Indeed, given that negative-emission technologies require financial contributions, not changes in behavior, their development and deployment may well be less vulnerable to free riding. Furthermore, we need a lot of arrows in the quiver to stand a chance of meeting the Paris targets. This was a key finding from the integrated assessment modelers ([ 2 ][3]). Rather than dividing mitigation into competing strategies, an inclusive approach would focus on stopping climate change as fast as possible while minimizing risk to vulnerable populations and to societal stability. Negative-emission technologies are not unique in facing challenges, risks, and uncertainties. It is true that negative emissions may fall short of closing the gap, but to characterize them as a high-stakes gamble is not consistent with the facts and the plausibility of meeting the Paris goals without them. Throwing a life-preserver to a drowning victim may not assure a successful rescue, but it is not a high-stakes gamble. Offering the life-preserver is preferable to withholding it, even though it might reduce the victim's incentive for learning how to swim. ![][4] At the current rate of carbon emissions, it will be difficult to meet climate goals. PHOTO: YOCAMON [www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/354/6313/714-a/DC1][5] Full author list 1. [↵][6]1. S. Barrett, 2. R. Stavins , Int. Environ. Agreements 3, 349 (2003). [OpenUrl][7] 2. [↵][8]1. O. Edenhofer 2. et al IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, O. Edenhofer et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014). [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182.full [2]: #ref-1 [3]: #ref-2 [4]: /embed/graphic-1.gif [5]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/354/6313/714-a/DC1 [6]: #xref-ref-1-1 "View reference 1 in text" [7]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DInt.%2BEnviron.%2BAgreements%26rft.volume%253D3%26rft.spage%253D349%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [8]: #xref-ref-2-1 "View reference 2 in text"

When large-scale accidents cause catastrophic damage to natural or cultural resources, government and industry are faced with the challenge of assessing the extent of damages and the magnitude of restoration that is warranted. Although market transactions for privately owned assets provide information about how valuable they are to the people involved, the public services of natural assets are not exchanged on markets; thus, efforts to learn about people's values involve either untestable assumptions about how other things people do relate to these services or empirical estimates based on responses to stated-preference surveys. Valuation based on such surveys has been criticized because the respondents are not engaged in real transactions. Our research in the aftermath of the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill addresses these criticisms using the first, nationally representative, stated-preference survey that tests whether responses are consistent with rational economic choices that are expected with real transactions. Our results confirm that the survey findings are consistent with economic decisions and would support investing at least $17.2 billion to prevent such injuries in the future to the Gulf of Mexico's natural resources.

Climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies were assessed using an application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system developed for the Sacramento River basin and Delta export region of the San Joaquin Valley. WEAP is an integrated rainfall/runoff, water resources systems modeling framework that can be forced directly from time series of climatic input to estimate water supplies (watershed runoff) and demands (crop evapotranspiration). We applied the model to evaluate the hydrologic implications of 12 climate change scenarios as well as the water management ramifications of the implied hydrologic changes. In addition to evaluating the impacts of climate change with current operations, the model also assessed the impacts of changing agricultural management strategies in response to a changing climate. These adaptation strategies included improvements in irrigation technology and shifts in cropping patterns towards higher valued crops. Model simulations suggested that increasing agricultural demand under climate change brought on by increasing temperature will place additional stress on the water system, such that some water users will experience a decrease in water supply reliability. The study indicated that adaptation strategies may ease the burden on the water management system. However, offsetting water demands through these approaches will not be enough to fully combat the impacts of climate change on water management. To adequately address the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies will have to include fundamental changes in the ways in which the water management system is operated.

Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California’s landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered.

Spain faces a complex situation regarding its climate change policies. On the one hand, greenhouse gas emissions have shown an important increase since 1990, and are far above the Kyoto commitments. On the other hand, the country is likely to suffer significant impacts from climate change. To date, however, there has been a rather limited application of corrective policies, particularly with regard to energy prices. Indeed, although Spanish citizens are generally very concerned about climate change, price increases in the energy sector have traditionally been opposed. In the present paper, we offer suggestions for future policies, showing that Spanish households, in general, are strongly in favour of the implementation of a green electricity program, which reduces green-house gas emissions, although it makes electricity more expensive for an interim period. Data from a telephone survey representative of the Spanish population which we carried out immediately prior to the Copenhagen climate summit, show that people were willing on average to pay an increase of 29.91€ per month per household over the current electric bill. Our results also show that younger individuals living in the Mediterranean area are more likely to pay for this green electricity program. © Inter-Research 2011.

Although complex pricing schedules are increasingly common in utility billing, it is difficult to determine whether consumers respond to complicated marginal prices because price changes are often confounded with simultaneous demand shocks or non-price policies. To overcome this challenge, we exploit a natural experiment - the introduction of a third price block in an increasing block pricing schedule for water - in Santa Cruz, California. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that consumers do respond to changes in marginal price. Doubling marginal price led to a 12% decrease in water use (500 cubic feet per bill) among high-use households.

In this paper, we extend the latent segmentation approach to the Kuhn–Tucker (KT) model. The proposed approach models heterogeneity in preferences for recreational behavior, using a utility theoretical framework to simultaneously model participation and site selection decisions. Estimation of the latent segmentation KT model with standard maximum likelihood techniques is numerically difficult because of the large number of parameters in the segment membership functions and the utility function for each latent segment. To address this problem, we propose the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the model. In the empirical section, we implement the EM latent segmentation KT approach to analyze a Southern California beach recreation data set. Our empirical analysis suggests that three groups exist in the sample. Using the model to analyze two hypothetical beach management policy scenarios illustrates different welfare impacts across groups.

Influenced by the success of emission trading in the US for sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), some economists have argued for an upstream, economy-wide cap-and-trade scheme as the primary tool for achieving the required reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper addresses that argument and concludes that cap-and-trade will need to be accompanied by complementary regulatory measures. While it is a necessary component in a climate mitigation programme, it is unlikely to be sufficient by itself to accomplish the desired emission reductions. The paper reviews the evidence on how SO 2 emissions were reduced and the extent to which actual emission trading was responsible for the reduction as opposed to other innovations. It also identifies differences between the past regulation of SO 2 and other air pollutants and the challenges presented by the regulation of GHG emissions. What actually happened in the US with SO 2 emission trading deviated in several significant respects from what would be predicted based on the conventional theoretical analysis. While there was a dramatic reduction in SO 2 emissions, it occurred because of several factors, some of which are unlikely to apply for GHG emissions, and others of which argue for an activist regulatory policy by the government as a complement to the functioning of an emissions market for GHGs. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

The paper reviews the history of Bay-Delta decision-making in California in order to highlight the continuity between what happened with CALFED and what happened in the preceding decades since water project deliveries began in 1949. Throughout this period, there has been intense conflict about whether and how to transfer water from the Bay-Delta to users elsewhere—a conflict marked by a fundamental opposition of interests among stakeholders. We document how the State of California has failed to organize itself effectively to resolve this conflict and make a decision on how to manage the Delta. The strategy consistently adopted by the State was to encourage the main parties – agricultural and urban water diverters, and fisheries and other instream-protection interests – to work out a solution among themselves, rather than imposing one externally. However, economic theory suggests that a bargaining solution is unlikely to exist because of the extreme opposition of interest among the parties. The Bay-Delta history amply confirms this theoretical prediction. Thus, the State's strategy of relying on voluntary agreement to resolve the issue is fundamentally misconceived and is, at some level, an abdication of its responsibility.

In response to an Executive Order by California Governor Schwarzenegger, an evaluation of the implications to California of possible climate changes was undertaken using a scenario-based approach. The "Scenarios Project" investigated projected impacts of climate change on six sectors in the California region. The investigation considered the early, middle and later portions of the twenty-first century, guided by a set of IPCC Fourth Assessment global climate model runs forced by higher and lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Each of these climate simulations produce substantial impacts in California that would require adaptations from present practices or status. The most severe impacts could be avoided, however, if emissions can be held near the lower end of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. It is increasingly apparent that the rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), resulting from human activities, is changing the climate in ways that pose serious risks to California's health, economy, and environment. Furthermore, the more GHGs accumulate in the Earth's atmosphere, the more the climate is likely to change and the greater the risks that Earth's system processes and society will face (IPCC 2007). If actions are not taken soon, substantial impacts are likely to happen sooner and grow to larger magnitudes.

Este artículo examina los principales proyectos de los Planes Hidrológicos de 2001 y de 2005, el trasvase del Ebro y el programa A.G.U.A., diseñados para resolver los problemas de escasez y degradación de los recursos hídricos en el sureste peninsular. El intenso debate sobre ambos proyectos muestra las dificultades para conseguir una gestión sostenible, debido a los conflictos entre regiones, sectores económicos, y organizaciones políticas y sociales. En este trabajo se evalúan alternativas a estos dos proyectos de ampliación de la oferta de agua, y los resultados muestran que las soluciones aceptables combinan medidas de oferta y demanda de agua. Ahora bien, la implementación de las medidas no es sencilla, y requiere compensar las pérdidas de los agricultores y lograr su cooperación para proteger los recursos hídricos. En caso contrario, una carga excesiva sobre las actividades agrarias generará una fuerte oposición social, que hará fracasar las medidas.

Since 2004, California has taken a variety of measures to control greenhouse gas emissions. This culminated in August 2006 with the passage of AB 32, which requires that overall GHG emissio...

As part of the 2006 Climate Change Report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the California Legislature, an application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system in the Sacramento River Basin was deployed to look at the impact of climate change on agricultural water management and the potential for adaptation. The WEAP system includes a dynamically integrated rainfall runoff hydrology module that generates the components of the hydrologic cycle from input climate time series. This allows for direct simulation of water management responses to climate change without resorting to perturbations of historically observed hydrologic conditions. In the Sacramento River Basin, the four climate time series adopted for the 2006 Climate Change Report were used to simulate agricultural water management without any adaptation and with adaptation in terms of improvements in irrigation efficiency and shifts in cropping patterns during dry periods. These adaptations resulted in lower overall water demands in the agricultural sector, to levels observed during the recent past, and associated reductions in groundwater pumping and increases in surface water allocations to other water use sectors.

Over the last few years, California has passed some of the strongest climate policies in the USA. These new policies have been motivated in part by increasing concerns over the risk of climate-related impacts and facilitated by the state's existing framework of energy and air quality policies. This paper presents an overview of the evolution of this increased awareness of climate change issues by policy makers brought about by the strong link between climate science and policy in the state. The State Legislature initiated this link in 1988 with the mandate to prepare an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change to California. Further interactions between science and policy has more recently resulted, in summer of 2006, in the passage of Assembly Bill 32, a law that limits future greenhouse gas emissions in California. This paper discusses the important role played by a series of state and regional climate assessments beginning in 1988 and, in particular, the lessons learned from a recently completed study known as the Scenarios Project.

We use the geo-referenced June Agricultural Survey of the U.S. Department of Agriculture to match values of individual farms in California with a measure of water availability as mediated through irrigation districts, and degree days, a nonlinear transformation of temperature, controlling for other influences on value such as soil quality, to examine the potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture in California. Water availability strongly capitalizes into farmland values. The predicted decrease in water availability in the latest climate change scenarios downscaled to California can therefore be expected to have a significant negative impact on the value of farmland. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

There is an emerging consensus in the scientific community that climate change has the potential to significantly alter prevailing hydrologic patterns in California over the course of the 21st Century. This is of profound importance for a system where large investments have been made in hydraulic infrastructure that has been designed and is operated to harmonize dramatic temporal and spatial water supply and water demand variability. Recent work by the authors led to the creation of an integrated hydrology/water management climate change impact assessment framework that can be used to identify tradeoffs between important ecosystem services provided by the California water system associated with future climate change and to evaluate possible adaptation strategies. In spite of the potential impact of climate change, and the availability of a tool for investigating its dimensions, actual water management decision-making processes in California have yet to fully integrate climate change analysis into their planning dialogues. This paper presents an overview of decision-making processes ranked based on the application of a 3S: Sensitivity, Significance, and Stakeholder support, standard, which demonstrates that while climate change is a crucial factor in virtually all water-related decision making in California, it has not typically been considered, at least in any analytical sense. The three highest ranked processes are described in more detail, in particular the role that the new analytical framework could play in arriving at more resilient water management decisions. The authors will engage with stakeholders in these three processes, in hope of moving climate change research from the academic to the policy making arena.

Among others who point to environmental variability and managerial uncertainty as causes of fishery collapse, Roughgarden and Smith (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 93 (1996) 5078) argue that three sources of uncertainty are important for fisheries management: variability in fish dynamics, inaccurate stock size estimates, and inaccurate implementation of harvest quotas. We develop a bioeconomic model with these three sources of uncertainty, and solve for optimal escapement based on measurements of fish stock in a discrete-time model. Among other results we find: (1) when uncertainties are high, we generally reject the constant-escapement rule advocated in much of the existing literature, (2) inaccurate stock estimation affects policy in a fundamentally different way than the other sources of uncertainty, and (3) the optimal policy leads to significantly higher commercial profits and lower extinction risk than the optimal constant-escapement policy (by 42% and 56%, respectively).

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

We report on the results of a large-scale contingent valuation (CV) study conducted after the Exxon Valdez oil spill to assess the harm caused by it. Among the issues considered are the design features of the CV survey, its administration to a national sample of U.S. households, estimation of household willingness to pay to prevent another Exxon Valdez type oil spill, and issues related to reliability and validity of the estimates obtained. Events influenced by the study's release are also briefly discussed.

This paper scrutinises the use of ecosystem service valuation for marine planning. Lessons are drawn from the development and use of environmental valuation and cost-benefit analysis for policy-making in the US and the UK. Current approaches to marine planning in both countries are presented and the role that ecosystem service valuation could play in this context is outlined. This includes highlighting the steps in the marine planning process where valuation can inform marine planning and policy-making as well as a discussion of methodological challenges to ecosystem service valuation techniques in the context of marine planning. Recommendations to overcome existing barriers are offered based on the synergies and the thinking in the two countries regarding the application of ecosystem service valuation to marine planning.

Complementary choices are important and pervasive yet occasionally elusive. Single consumers make complementary choices in purchase decisions (e.g. chips and salsa), product interoperabilities (smartphones and networks), and dynamic decisions (current exercise and future healthcare consumption). Multiple consumers make complementary choices when they interact in strategic games or form networks. Firms make complementary choices when determining production inputs, entering related markets, and strategic mergers.The structural empirical literature has recently started to address the difficult problem of how to model complementary choices. This new work contrasts with traditional approaches such as discrete choice models, wherein all choices are mutually exclusive. A naive approach to modeling complementary choices is to include all possible bundles of choices in the choice set. However, for any given set of options, the set of all possible subsets is exponentially larger, and often too large to feasibly estimate. Second, specific models of complementarities are needed to ensure desirable equilibrium properties in games among agents (e.g., existence, uniqueness or multiplicity). Third, models of complementarities are often required to evaluate counterfactuals, such as predicting demand for bundles of complementary products that have not previously been offered.We review the literature selectively, summarizing the state of the art and identifying promising directions for future work. We begin with complementary choices made by consumers, and then examine complementary choices made by firms.

According to many seasoned survey researchers, offering a no-opinion option should reduce the pressure to give substantive re- sponses felt by respondents who have no true opinions. By contrast, the survey satisficing perspective suggests that no-opinion options may dis- courage some respondents from doing the cognitive work necessary to report the true opinions they do have. We address these arguments using data from nine experiments carried out in three household surveys. Attraction to no-opinion options was found to be greatest among re- spondents lowest in cognitive skills (as measured by educational at- tainment), among respondents answering secretly instead of orally, for questions asked later in a survey, and among respondents who devoted little effort to the reporting process. The quality of attitude reports ob- tained (as measured by over-time consistency and responsiveness to a question manipulation) was not compromised by the omission of no- opinion options. These results suggest that inclusion of no-opinion op- tions in attitude measures may not enhance data quality and instead may preclude measurement of some meaningful opinions.