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This paper will attempt to show that a strategy of flexible integration can be a superior alternative to other forms of statecraftâ€"especially on problems of self-determination which are at the center of many of the threats of terrorism, regional war, economic damage, loss of legitimacy, and nuclear proliferation that the U.S. now faces. Flexible integration refers to a way of making America secure by seeking to partially integrate select territories and/or countries whose real or potential conflicts threaten U.S. vital interests. In the past, the U.S. has helped induce various forms of integration between the territories of Europe; Germany; Bosnia; Northern Ireland; Sudan; and Iraq. In every case however the integration that results through this strategy involves two or more political communities that share and divide powers rather than one community becoming fully subordinate over another, as with the relations between an empire and a colony. This paper will proceed by (1) describing what flexible integration is, (2) deriving categories for comparison between competing forms of statecraft, and (3) explaining why flexible integration is a better alternative for the U.S. as compared to other American foreign policy strategies. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes developing a research agenda exploring "scope" as an integral element of grand strategy. Strategists and empiricists alike have made important contributions to studying grand strategy as a great power phenomenon. Such research considers the nature, sources and types of grand strategy as well as how and why grand strategy changes over time. Embedded in such work is a notion of scope, or the geopolitical extent of grand strategy. Policy elites, in formulating grand strategies, inevitably make decisions about which regions demand protection as vital to national security. Unfortunately, research has tended to neglect these choices about scope or subsume them under larger categories like grand strategy type. Consequently, this paper argues that though scope is an essential component of grand strategy, this component remains undertheorized. In turn, the paper calls for a research agenda focused on scope in grand strategy, and it concludes with a proposed theory about the nature of scope in grand strategy. Specifically, it suggests that grand strategic scope rises and declines in a stair-step profile that roughly parallels a state's relative power lifecycle in the international system. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of international structure on state motivations. Two variants of structural realism (defensive and offensive) differ on their definitions of state goals, although both claim to derive their definitions from the same set of assumptions. Defensive realists view states as security maximizing actors, while offensive realists view states as power maximizers, although the eventual motivation is survival in both approaches. The reason for their difference lies on two stages of the theorizing process. On the first level, both approaches claim their definitions to be the logical outcome of main assumptions of realist paradigm. On the second level, both approaches explicitly or implicitly inject additional, unit level assumption to the theory at the expense of structural theorizing. This paper argues firstly that defining such directional state motives is at best rootless and secondly that adding a unit-level assumption contributes to structural theorizing less than it takes away from theoretical rigor. Instead of holding directional definitions of state goals (security or power maximizing) this paper, by taking one step back, offers to derive a neutral definition of state motivation. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subfield of American Political Development has concerned itself with explaining how the United States moved from being the "state of courts and parties" to the form associated with the modern state. However in the course of examining this shift little attention has been paid to one of the most overt developments of state capacity in America - the creation in the first half of the Twentieth century of a state police force in every state bar Hawaii. This rapid and intense creation of a police capability by the states has been largely overlooked by the subfield, with only one serious attempt to provide an explanation for this trend in terms of American political development, which itself predates much recent APD literature. This paper seeks to review the creation of one force, New York, with the intention of showing that state police development can offer scholars an important site for assessing the manner in which state capacity grows. Drawing on the work of Carpenter, the paper argues that in some instances institutional development can be most effectively explained not in terms of the demonstrated capacity of a bureaucracy itself, but paradoxically as a consequence of another bureaucracy's demonstration of capacity. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of the right in European politics have started to cast more doubt upon the European Union (EU) enlargement, especially one involves Turkey. The negotiations which started in 2005 are progressing at snail’s pace. Frustrated with the recalcitrance of the major EU powers, the Turkish masses seem to be growing increasingly cold to EU membership. .x000d..x000d.The Turkish population is becoming split over the issue of Turkish membership in the EU. This paper, using the results of a survey of nationally representative sample of Turkish voters before the 2007 legislative elections in Turkey, analyzes who among the Turkish voters support EU membership of Turkey and who oppose it, and why? This paper also addresses whether EU membership transcends party politics and constitutes a “state project” supported across partisan lines? The paper ends with examining if Turkey and the EU fall apart and decide to trek different routes what lies ahead for the interface of Turkey and EU member countries in NATO, and Council of Europe, and on issues of energy, security, immigration and beyond? ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observers as varied as Secretary of Defense Gates, academic analysts and presidential candidates have commented on the dysfunctional nature of the U.S. weapons acquisition process: massive cost overruns, performance shortfalls or complete program failure, and weaponry ill-suited to the national security challenges facing the United States. A similar debate occurred in the 1980s, followed by reforms to the process. This paper will analyze this previous debate, looking at specific reforms that were instituted. The paper will then examine the current criticisms of the weapons acquisition process, as well as specific examples of dysfunction, in order to evaluate the adequacy of the previous round of reform and to explain the persistent of major problems with the process. The paper will conclude with reflections concerning the possibility of new reforms in the acquisition process. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the Cold War, a variety of actors embraced the concept of “human security” in an explicit effort to redefine security policy in the international system. Defined in a 1994 UNDP report as “safety from chronic threats…[and] protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in the patterns of daily life.” Using content analysis of international news media from 1992-2006, this paper examines the trajectory of an idea through the international system. This analysis compares the development, diffusion and usage of human security within Canada â€" an early adopter and promoter â€" against the behavior of other actors in the international system. To examine this overarching trend, I analyze the sources and geographic regions of articles discussing human security, the actors articulating the concept, and the issues and actions labeled with the human security frame. By employing the language of “human security,” actors signal a shared analytic frame, an alternative to the conceptualization of security as national security. This paper offers a novel empirical study of how Canada’s use of, and focus on human security has changed, shedding new light on the prospects for one central concept among observers and policymakers. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the potential a dedicated deterrence strategy offers as part of a broader cyber-security strategy. The paper finds that a deterrence strategy can play some role in an overall cyber-security strategy when developed within specific guidelines and with carefully delineated thresholds. This examination is rooted in the work of Richard J. Harknett, Lawrence Freedman, John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt, and Martin Libicki, as well as national security documents. Given the lack of theoretical and definitional rigor applied to the problem, the intent of this piece is to open a discussion of the varying strengths and weaknesses of offense-defense and deterrence approaches as they relate to the cyber realm, with a particular emphasis on the world's most cyber-capable and cyber-reliant power - the United States. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to provide a better conceptualization of insurgent strategies. Specifically, I shall examine Che Guevara's "Foco" theory of insurgency, as it is one of the most theoretically popular and most pervasive strategies of insurgency currently practiced throughout the world. After briefly examining the origins, objectives and theoretical strengths of the Foco (also known as the Vanguard Theory) theory, I will argue that Guevara's theory suffers from an internal tension that I term the "Vanguard's Dilemma." Simply put, the Vanguard's dilemma is a decision insurgents must make between the desire to maintain a secure base away from the reach of government control (security) versus the need to be in constant contact with the population in order to increase its popularity (publicity). The significance of this dilemma between the desire for security and the need for publicity creates a tension within the Vanguard Theory that can be fatal for insurgents if properly exploited by counter-insurgent operations. This paper will examine in detail this dilemma and show how it can be exploited. Given that several insurgent groups within Iraq currently adhere to the Vanguard Theory of insurgency, a proper understanding of insurgent strategy is an essential first step in the long road towards confronting and winning asymmetrical conflicts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional wisdom holds that governments matter. That a new government, particularly one of a different political party, will make substantial changes to the policies of the state they were elected to lead. The focus of this paper is on whether party affiliation matters in determining Canada's priorities and policies in its trade relationship with the United States (US). It will compare policy statements and performances of Liberal, Progressive Conservative, and Conservative governments from 1968 to the present and it will argue that party affiliation has had little impact on Canada's US trade policy over this period. The analysis will proceed in four parts. In the first part, the role of political parties in Canada will be outlined briefly. This will be followed by an overview of Canada's exports to the US. The third section of the paper will examine the economic priorities of Canadian governments concerning the US from 1968 to present as gleaned from major policy statements (e.g. white papers and speeches). The final part of the paper will set out some of the reasons why party affiliation has had little substantive impact on Canada's trade policy with the US over the last forty years. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At a time when the strategic threat environment is unsettled, the transatlantic storm has been taking place and the EU takes strategically important decisions about its future, great effort must be directed toward analysis of the fundamental aspects of building new security architectures. A clear conceptual framework must guide such analysis, but no consensus exists on what the core concept should be. The vision of a transatlantic team founded largely on specialization in the security area and incorporating traditional recipes of complementarity and interlocking (limiting duplications and overlaps) seems to have a potential to become the guiding principle for successful transformation of the current framework of transatlantic security cooperation. My paper will inform a larger theoretical examination of the dynamics between power and institutions. After evaluating to what extent are the visions of transatlantic team and security specialization compatible with the current situation in the transatlantic and intra-European relations, this analysis should address questions in three layers. Firstly, to what extent do these visions offer a good and effective solution to structuring a security relationship? Secondly, how can these visions themselves contribute over time to their own acceptability and deepening in the transatlantic area and, more generally, to the transatlantic team spirit building (role of the specialization spiral, TAFTA ? economic pillar of the transatlantic team, the Transatlantic Steering Group)? Thirdly, should both these two parts of the analysis lead to positive conclusions, what are the prospects of these visions being actually adopted at the transatlantic level (the role of New Europe, unsettled security environment and ?EU bureaucracy)? Current context of European and transatlantic security cooperation is approached through the lenses of the transatlantic team and security specialization. The main focus is on dynamic developments in the area of the Common Foreign and Security Policy and European Security and Defense Policy of the European Union. Draft of the EU Constitution, European Security Strategy, April Mini-summit Declaration, December Declaration on European Defense and other strategic documents are examined. Initiatives such as enhanced cooperation, structured cooperation, closer cooperation, EU Rapid Reaction Capability and collective capability for planning and conducting operations are subjected to a critical analysis from the transatlantic perspective. Adequate attention is paid also to current trends in the development of the North Atlantic Alliance. The NATO Response Force receives a particular attention as an important catalyst, paving the way toward the future accommodation of the concept of specialization in the NATO architecture. The identification of policy options that should and should not be chosen in order to enhance transatlantic security relations is inherently present throughout the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the extent to which major congressional investigations of intelligence since 1945 addressed perceived challenges to dominant political regimes and constitutional norms at the expense of greater institutional gains relative to the President. An examination of committee records and contemporaneous press accounts reveals how committee members succeed, or fail, to manage issues of secrecy and security in order to produce official accounts which stabilize and maintain the legitimacy of the broader political system of separated powers. The selected cases demonstrate how major investigations have repeatedly helped to secure the basic legitimacy and continued existence of a modern intelligence and national security apparatus largely beyond the control of Congress, while securing only limited, if any, relative gains for Congress in terms of institutional prestige, administrative control, or legislative achievements. Finally, it incorporates additional dimensions of institutional performance alongside existing conceptual frameworks to better understand how the nature and use of congressional investigations has varied in the context of intelligence "alarms" and over the course of American political development. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines what determines where, when, and how extensively the UN involves itself in international conflicts. Special emphasis is placed on the relative importance of two sets of factors that are widely seen as the primary motivators of UN intervention efforts: 1) the interests of the five veto-holding members of the UN Security Council (the so-called P-5) and 2) the extent to which a conflict poses a threat to international peace and security. We argue that although P-5 interests play a key role in determining whether and with what level of commitment the UN intervenes, many of the measures that are commonly used to capture P-5 interests are theoretically flawed and therefore poor predictors of patterns of UN involvement. Using data on UN conflict management efforts in international crises covering the time period 1945-2002 and statistical techniques that allow for a formal comparison of the relative explanatory power of competing causal models, we also show, however, that even when a more refined model of P-5 preferences is used, measures of conflict severity and escalatory potential constitute a more powerful predictor of UN intervention decisions than a model built around the parochial interests of P-5 members. This suggests that the UN adheres more closely to its organizational mission of promoting international peace and security than the stereotypical view of the organization as nothing but a front for the advancement of parochial great power interests would suggest. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have caused a seismic shift in the legal landscape of our country. The so-called "war on terror" has brought a renewed focus on the breadth and scope of executive power and the appropriate role of all three branches of government within the constructs of national security. Relying upon the state secrets privilege, which can finds its origins in prerogative of English Kings and developing common law, the Bush Administration attempted to dismiss all civil cases concerning the extraordinary rendition program, and the NSA Terrorist Surveillance Program. This paper will chronicle the common law origins of this privilege, its incorporation into the Constitutional framework of American jurisprudence, and its use throughout the "war on terror." Finally, it will offer comments upon how to restructure the use of the state secrets privilege and to promote a renewed focus on the commingling of governmental branches in "constitutional dialogue." ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to show that stability of the external security environments of the Third World socialist states plays a significant role in pursuing economic reform policies causing a certain pattern in reform policies. The main hypothesis is that the more stable external security environment of the country expedites radical type of reform in these countries. This study ultimately intends to offer useful implication for North Korea. .x000d..x000d.The main purpose of paper is to show the relations between the security factor in IR is crucial in pursing domestic reforms especially in the smaller socialist states, thus to emphasize of the role of management of stable security in these states. .x000d.To substantiate the argument, first, I follow the logical structure of B.Chavance(1994), which divides the stages of economic transition into four parts on the characteristics of the economic reform, then analyze the procedures of economic reform policies implemented in Vietnam and Cuba, the situation of the security environment of the two countries, and compare the outcome of reform policies in relation to the security environment. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2008 national political conventions were both National Special Security Events -- a designation that triggered the implementation of an array of statutes, regulations, and presidential directives mostly created subsequent to the terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001. This legal regime substantially redefined the relations between local, state, and federal government agencies as they discharge their respective repsponsibilities for protection public safety, security, and rights of political expression at presidentially designated NSSEs. This paper reports comparative research on how the cities of Denver and St. Paul sought to define and maintain their respective balance points between protecting public safety and security on the one hand and protecting rights of political expression on the other. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the end of the Cold War, the new security threats and the broadened security agendas of actors has created a suitable atmosphere for rethinking and revitalizing the sphere and the limits of regional orders in the international politics. The relatively successful story of Western security identity and practices at home and abroad, and the European Union’s precedence intensified this trend by creating a kind of imagined criteria for the regional security orders. However, still the links between the global and regional security as well as the meaning of regional order are not yet clear. Though one can only observe what kind of security mechanisms (balancing, cooperation, competition, or conflict etc…) have dominated in the regional domain. Asian regional security order- if there is any- stands as a real test case for observing how kind of regional security order will rise from these plural and competing security mechanisms. In order to trace the possibility of regional security order outside of western world, this brief paper aims to evaluate the security regionalism in the Eastern/southeastern Asia and tries to make some assessments on question of whether the ARF or EAS has been close to represent Asian security order. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does financial crisis affect a state's national security policy? Despite their political significance, relatively few studies have been devoted to the effects of financial crisis on foreign policy, especially in the field of national security. By examining South Korea's alteration of policy towards North Korea after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, this paper demonstrates that financial crisis can reshape the concept of national security and force a state to redirect its national security policy. South Korea's change of direction from stubborn confrontation to benevolent Sunshine policy towards its long-time rival shows three causal effects of financial crisis on foreign policy. First, experiencing financial crisis, policymakers perceive preserving economic stability and securing foreign investments as their vital national security interests. Second, a state in financial crisis seeks to avert confrontation on its border to stabilize its economy and attract foreign investments. Third, fatal impacts on national economy limit extracting and mobilizing power of government, which are required to conduct hostile policy towards neighboring country. These findings provide a potentially new interpretation of foreign policy making. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the most critical aspects of maintaining their national security, to the mundane work of trucking, and virtually everything in between, governments have turned to private military corporations (PMCs), but, as numerous studies have demonstrated efforts to regulate PMC actions are lagging. .x000d..x000d.Conversely, there is a realization that any efforts to better regulate PMCs has to be done in a matter that is realistic; that is, the regulations have to be congruent with states’ interests. This is not simply a question of states’ geo-strategic interests being an unfortunate equipoise to more effective regulation. Rather, PMCs are playing a fundamental role in states’ efforts to maintain their vital interests and questions of how to more effectively regulate PMCs must be seen from this broader perspective. .x000d..x000d.This paper advances the argument that by outlawing mercenaries, the international community has inadvertently made effective regulation of PMCs all but impossible. More effective regulation would be possible if PMCs were formally legalized and a simple regulatory regime that charged the contracting actor with the responsibility of holding the PMC compliant with international humanitarian law (IHL) was created. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the complex learning process that occurred between 1979 and 1987, elites confronted anomalies in the long-term revolutionary development paradigm, which sought to establish a strong independent China by achieving three interrelated goals: security, prosperity, and self-reliance. Based on the perceived success of the SEZs and the nascent coastal development strategy, elites reached a consensus over replacing the long-term goal of self-reliance with a state-managed embrace of the international economy. The concept of self-reliance thus became obsolete as elites were no longer tethered to the Nativist beliefs of Mao Zedong and had incrementally learned of the limitations of import substitution. This paper hypothesizes that by 1987, Chinese elites agreed that China should join the rest of the East Asian economies in formally adopting outwardly oriented development regime, which regarded foreign capital, technology, and markets as tools to empower China. Elites thus initiated the GATT accession process, established the fifth special economic zone on Hainan, and announced the coastal development strategy. A new generation of technocratic elites would take over the country’s leadership to institute the new technocratic regime. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the Europeans discussed integration, others were experiencing long conflicts over borders. Some of the latter witnessed an exaggerated resemblance of the importance of borders by erecting barriers. Barriers on borders were also built in non-conflict zones to stop illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Historically, construction of barriers on borders extends to ancient China and old Jerusalem. Among these diverse cases, one justification stands in common; security. By answering the question, “do barriers provide security? Why?” this paper attempts to fill the gap in the literature which lacks rigorous examination of barriers despite their proliferation across time and space..x000d.I argue, while barriers sometimes provided short-term security for wall-builders in history by fending off attacks, they absolutely fail to deter them. Failure to provide security by deterrence is facilitated by the attackers’ adaptation to their environment, resulting in a strategic logic of evasion that is made more possible today by advanced military technology and diffusion of information. To test this argument, China’s Great Wall and the Gaza Strip fence are explored by examining the security situation before and after erecting the barrier. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As any government, the US government (USG) is comprised of different departments and agencies, each having different roles, expertise and missions. However, not every problem the USG faces can be handled by a single agency. Those cases require an "Inter-Agency" approach. With its need for security, development, information, etc, Reconstruction & Stabilization ("pacification") in Iraq and Afghanistan are great examples for an "inter-agency" solution. Advocates in professional security and military journals have called for replicating the successful Vietnam-era CORDS program- which was comprised of: DoD, State, AID, USIA, CIA and others. This misses the point. Though the "on the ground" organization of CORDS was effective, that organization was only the result of key bureaucratic processes and decisions that occurred in DC. It is those processes and decisions that need to be identified and then replicated today to create effective Inter-Agency Task Forces. This paper will trace the CORDS program (from not very to highly effective at pacification) to identify what key bureaucratic process or decisions changed. It will conclude by contrasting the decisions behind CORDS to the current US pacification efforts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As Latin America democratizes, ordinary citizens appear less enthusiastic about democracy. What explains this paradox? This paper attempts to fill in the gap between disparate literatures on corruption, urban violence, and democratic orientations by presenting a causal relationship between victimization, corruption, and democratic values. I argue that the increase in criminal activity and perceptions of corruption throughout Latin America may explain part of the variation in democratic orientations and that victims of crime express negative feelings toward democracy and are often have less confidence in political institutions. Using survey data from the 2005 Latinobarometro, I find that victims are indeed less likely to support both democracy as an ideal as well as the political institutions in place while respondents who perceive high levels of corruption are more likely to support democracy but are significantly less likely to support political institutions. Analyses from ordered logit models demonstrate that these results hold across Latin America. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As China has grown economically it has gained in world influence and military power as well. Some realist IR theorists believe that rising powers in general - and China in particular - pose serious dangers of conflict with the older great powers they seek to join or displace. Other scholars see China as acting cautiously and responsibly, like a status-quo-power. Neo-liberal theorists tend to believe that China can be integrated into a peaceful world system and constrained by a web of normative and legal obligations. Chinese leaders themselves speak of seeking a "harmonious world" and disclaim any intention to threaten anyone. What does the American public think about the rise of China as a world power? In this paper we use a variety of data collected by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and others to explore the nature and causes of Americans' views.It turns out that most Americans are well aware of the rise of China. Some are apprehensive about that rise, chiefly for national security (rather than economic) reasons, and many favor a degree of off-shore "balancing" of the sort that realists recommend. But few Americans want to actively work to limit the rise of China. Very few favor the use of troops to defend Taiwan. Very few favor a nuclear-armed Japan. Large majorities of Americans take stands more akin to those of neo-liberal than realist theorists, favoring cooperation and peaceful engagement with China. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although they can be used for offensive purposes, nuclear weapons are generally viewed in terms of deterrence. As such they are especially suited for situations of security dilemma. Often confrontations such as India-Pakistan, Arab-Israel, and the East-West are characterized in terms of the security dilemma. And notwithstanding the fact that the Middle East is a major area of concern with respect to nuclear proliferation, it is surprising to find no systematic study of the nexus between the drive for the acquisition of nuclear weapons in the region and the security dilemma. Put simply, the traditional security dilemma refers to "net insecurity" experienced by all actors as a result of self-help measures intended to enhance the security of one of them. The Arab-Israel area of the Middle East is an ideal case to examine the applicability, dynamics and impact of the security dilemma. Existing literature lacks any systematic analysis of this. Security analyses that partially employ the security dilemma almost exclusively focus on Israel's end the security dilemma to rationalize Israel's offensive posture and aggressive actions, monopoly of nuclear weapons and its superiority in conventional weaponry. I find no studies that seriously consider the Arab side of the security dilemma, as if they have no security dilemma, or if it exists, it is of no consequence to regional peace and stability. This paper is an attempt at redressing this imbalance. In applying the security dilemma to the Arab-Israel area, we can focus on the factors that have given rise to and continue to shape the security dilemma in the region. We can highlight the crucial linkage between the security dilemma and past and likely future nuclear proliferation on the one hand and the Arab-Israel conflict. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A handful of scholars have recently examined the role of arms transfers on external conflict and internal stability, showing that arms transfers can have an important impact on a state’s decision to strike a conflictual pose within a rivalry, or a military’s decision to carry out a coup. Little work, however, has been conducted to better understand how arms transfers effect the democratic consolidation of recipient states. Given that arms transfers bolster the military, what effect should we expect this to have on the process of democratic consolidation? In this paper, I draw on theories of arms transfers, militarization, and democratization to argue that arms transfers should expand the material power of the military, and thus increase their stake in the handling of domestic affairs by the government. The result should be an escalated willingness to intervene in the state’s affairs via involvement in elections, the use of domestic security forces for political repression, and participation in the budgetary process of the state. I test this theory by regressing Polity scores and coups on arms transfers on all states from 1950 to 2006. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While most theories speak to the bandwagon vs. balance debate few empirical studies use a large N statistical approach. This paper uses regional security systems to provide a more rigorous test at the appropriate level of analysis. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests whether the Proliferation Security Initiative is best explained as a screening mechanism to identify states with like-minded security concerns or as a vehicle for pressuring states into adopting the norms of its founders. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a test for Ikenberry's hypothesis of liberal hegemony's ability to approximate constitutional orders within 20 regional security systems. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to go over the current debate on the impacts of the Iranian Nuclear Program and tries to make an assessment on the regional security. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer 2008 Olympic Games will take place in Beijing, China on August 8-24. In general, the security situation for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is quite stable, but still we need to face up to the threats from both traditional and non-traditional security areas such as terrorism, separatism and extremism. Terrorism is the biggest threat to the games. Effective security and defense strategies for the games require reliable intelligence. Reliable intelligence, however, is notoriously difficult to obtain even though we are immersed in vast quantities of information. How can we identify and obtain the useful intelligence from the vast sea of other less useful information? After analyzing the potential terrorism attacks and terrorists in the games, the paper analyzes the potential means for counterterrorism at the games, and tries to set up an intelligence study system based on the IG (Information Galaxy), which includes five parts: Sun (S), Earth (E), Moon (M), ISE (Information Sharing Environment) and IG (Information Galaxy). The relationships of SEM are just like the Sun, the Earth and the Moon. The analysis methods in S include behavior study, experience science, and logical thinking. The analysis methods in E include analytic hierarchy process, decision tree and decision table, systems analysis, and optimization. The analysis methods in M include multivariant analysis, trend extrapolation, time series, webometrics, correlation analysis, and content analysis. Especially, all the methods need to cooperate in the study of different cases in the IG system until valuable intelligence can be produced from the S, the S-E, the S-E-M, or the S-E-Ms. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to contribute to filling in the gaps on the knowledge of public opinion on the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) and on the facets of support of European citizens for the ESDP. From a logt estimation based on the Eurobarometer survey 54.1, we test three sets of hypotheses to identify the determinants for support the ESDP. We find evidence that some threats, European decision-making architecture, amry percpetions are good estimates for ESDP's public support. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study examines the impact of September 11 on U.S. foreign aid allocation. The paper argues that following 9/11 security concerns will dominate the allocation of foreign aid. The statistical analysis supports this expectation. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to criticize the dominant approach that assumes the persistence of North Korea’s security policy in the Post-Cold War Era, this paper shows that North Korea’s policy toward the U.S. has changed fundamentally from hostility to co-existence. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examination of the impact of nuclear weapons programs in India and Pakistan on regional security. The paper will explore nuclear proliferation and its impact on development, political stability, and terrorism in the region. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past two decades North Korea's nuclear ambitions have created several crises. North Korea's motives have appeared to be very ambiguous since the first launch of its nuclear program. The North Koreans, on the one hand, could feel tangible security threat from the coercive policies of U.S. Thereby, their inconsistent behaviors might be an instinctive reaction to them, just as they have repeatedly justified. On the other hand, North Korea might intend to take advantage of each crisis to achieve extra political and economic goals as the Bush Administration has claimed. Given the secretive nature of North Korean regime, uncertainty of North Korea's strategic targets in several nuclear crises plays an important role in evaluating the nature of North Korea crises. In retrospect to the history of Korean Peninsula, this paper argues that North Korea displays dual characteristics of both aggressiveness and insecurity, making it hard to determine North Korea's real motives and to devise proper policies. As an insecure state, North Korea is motivated to resort to nuclear weapons to protect the ruling of communist party against perceived U.S. threats after the Korean War. In other words, North Korea's insecurity is partially indigenous. Otherwise, as a greedy state, North Korea combines economic and political interests with security concerns to maximize its gain in each crisis. Although North Korea's wants of nuclear weapons are primarily defensive, its greedy intention has been continuously proved by concrete evidences. As a result, it is difficult to manage with such a state by either cooperative or competitive policies. That Clinton Administration and Bush Administration have made the alternative choice between reassurance and deterrence is a false one. Complete cooperation with North Korea without the strength of effective deterrence makes U.S. appear too exploitable. Without reassuring its core security concerns, coercive policies towards North Korea increase its insecurity and compel it to be more aggressive. Mixing effective deterrence and credible assurance is a more sophisticate choice. China, as a main stake holder, should be more concerned about the advancing nuclear weapons in the hands of North Korea. Given the implicit historical relations between China and North Korea, an effective deterrence policy carried out by the United States towards North Korea needs to combine with the reassurance from China. A nuclear neighbor country will significantly change the strategic environment of China over the long haul by destabilizing Korea Peninsula's status. As a rising regional power, China should reevaluate its national security interest in Korea Peninsula in the long term and clearly display its resolve to maintain the stability of East Asia. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A way to assure allies of credible support is through placing military bases in their territory; yet this is not universally done. This paper models the decision to deploy foreign bases to maintain security ties in the context of regional concerns. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption and implementation of “smart practices” requires, first and foremost, that what the “smart practices” actually are be identified for the areas of public policy in which we are interested. This paper explores the enormous difficulties in determining what the “smart practices” might be when considering the structural redesign of the intelligence community in the U.S. The analysis of the structure of the intelligence community relies on the insights of Luther Gulick and Martin Landau, two giants of American public administration, focusing on methods of departmentalization (Gulick) and the pursuit of system reliability through redundancy (Landau). The ultimate conclusion is that the most appropriate design for the intelligence community depends critically upon the “match” between the structure of the intelligence community, on the one hand, and what the nature of the future national-security threats are likely to be, on the other. Unfortunately, identifying what this future threat is likely to be is enormously difficult, hence modifying the structure to “match” the expected threat will be at least equally difficult. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of perceptions of threat on trade-offs between civil liberties and national security, and the role of these trade-offs in shaping public policy preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a formal model of resource allocation in the interaction between a government and a terrorist group; it yields predictions as to when investment in violence will be most advantageous as well as implications for security policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By engaging with classical realist theory, this paper argues that ethics and power can be conceptually united by bringing out normative aspects of national security that have been depreciated in contemporary accounts of the international system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bush administration central raison d’etre has revolved around the War on Terrorism with the aim of taking the battle to them. While this provides great latitude for the president in executing foreign policy, it ignores campaign promises which promised to fundamentally reduce military deployments. Beyond this, it compromises short-term security needs cited in a series of studies beginning with the Hart-Rudman Commission in 2001. This and subsequent studies have emphasized the need for utilizing the unique nature of the National Guard at home to improve entry security, and other needs suited to their dual-role and ability to act with police powers. However, Bush administration requirements to fill gaping voids in military might for both Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom minimizes these needs. Further, long-term damage is likely being done as indeterminate service lengths and the vagaries of limited warfare negatively impact long-term retention and recruitment for the reserve component. America’s militia, most recently referred to as the National Guard of the United States, represents a unique blend of responsibilities that cut across the spectrum of governmental entities within our federal system. Historically, they have provided the backbone of defense for this nation’s citizens. The advent of terrorism on a massive scale within US borders now demands further responsibility in this vein yet other responsibilities militate against it. Federal, or more accurately, central government responsibilities overseas on the auspices of the “War on Terrorism” draw critical emphasis and resources away from homeland security. These shortfalls have yet to be made up through other means. Increasingly greater demands place additional strain not only on the military components within the reserve. It also negatively impacts the many civilian first responder operations because a inordinate number of police, fire, medical, and emergency management personnel have reserve commitments. This impact on state and local governments further limits anti-terrorist efforts as well as normal emergency management problems. Current testimony, legislation, government studies, military assessments, and state/local reporting will be integrated in this paper to present the current state of unreadiness at all levels caused by excessive use of USC Article 32 in calling reserve components -- particularly the National Guard -- to overseas duty. Further, I expect to draw upon my own service -- 16 years active-duty military, State Department, and White House (Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43) -- culminating in more than a year in Afghanistan and the Middle East to emphasize the growing nature of this problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses theoretical conflict models and multivariate analysis to assess the relationship between refugee flows and the increasing levels of political violence. Specifically the question is asked: how do refugee flows alter the causal system of conflict at either an intrastate, interstate or regional levels. In exploring this security question, direct manifestations of conflict and its related social structures and processes can be factored as a dependent variable, while refugees, in terms of type, place, size, identity space, etc., assume a causal function. Refining ones understanding of the relationship between refugee populations and security concerns opens up an intellectual space within which the militarization and mobilization of refugee populations, as a tactic of irregular warfare, are subject to not just ethical, but pragmatic, quantitative testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper purports to offer a formal model that unifies deterrence and the security dilemma (or the spiral model) in a way different from the current literature’s. The two models, deterrence and the security dilemma, have been regarded as an alternative to each other. There are some formal works to unify the two, but even in such models, deterrence and the security dilemma are still treated as different worlds in the sense that actors do not know which world they are in and therefore act based on the probability for each. In my model, the world actors are in can change from one to the other as a crisis proceeds. More precisely, in one’s efforts to deter its adversary by building arms or mobilizing its force, one may well succeed in dissuading the other until some point. However, once its deterrent act exceeds that point (without recognizing it), the world is transformed to that of the security dilemma in which its deterrence backfires by (unnecessarily) provoking its opponent. This is the security dilemma in the sense that even if one’s opponent is greedy, its deterrence failure is not due to the adversary’s greed but rather because of the latter’s fear, aroused by one’s excessive deterrence, that the latter may be attacked in any event by the former. The logic behind it pertains to two types of credibility in deterrence, namely, the credibility of one’s threats and that of one’s assurances. As Schelling and others argue, a deterrent threat needs to be accompanied by the assurance that as long as the opponent stays there, one will not, the opponent believes, intend to hurt the other. This point has been argued by non-formal works. The existing formal models, however, are mainly concerned with how to make sure of the credibility of one’s threat without modeling to what extent it undermines the other type of credibility of an assurance. My model, by showing the inherent interconnectedness of deterrence and the security dilemma, illuminates the delicateness of deterrence. With the United States being at present the only superpower in the international system, policy implications of the model would be of vital significance. Jervis argues that state leaders tend to think that their benign intention is known to others even though it is not the case in actuality. If neorealists are right, the unmatched power of this country is ineluctably a threat to the others. Hence, unawareness of the security-dilemma side of deterrence could engender unintended consequences, ultimately undermining the US power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contrasts the factors that shape soft line US security strategy in Northeast Asia with its hard line strategy in the Persian Gulf. There are structural constraints that moderate the US policy toward North Korea. These are: US-Japanese alliances, US-South Korea economic relationship, and rising China. The US policy towards Iraq, on the other hand, is hardened by the US concern to guarantee the continuous flow of oil and by its relationship with Israel. Consequently, the US has adopted appeasement and engagement policies in northeast Asia while containment, regime change, and war resolution in the Persian Gulf. The US policy in these two regions has generated a number of challenges that neither the US nor the international community is sure yet how to address them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining how to respond to acts of terrorism has become a major public policy issue in the United States over the last two years. It has been discussed endlessly, many lives have been changed, and huge sums of money have been expended, often very hastily, to deal with the problem. Throughout all this, there is a perspective on terrorism that has been very substantially ignored. It can be summarized, somewhat crudely, in three points. 1) Assessed in broad but reasonable context, terrorism doesn’t do much damage. 2) The costs of terrorism very often come much more from hasty, ill considered, and over wrought reactions to it than from anything the terrorists have done. 3) A sensible policy approach to the problem might be to stress that any damage terrorists are able to accomplish likely can be absorbed, however grimly, and that, while judicious protective and policing measures are sensible, extensive fear and anxiety over what is at base a rather limited problem is misplaced, unjustified, and counterproductive. I am not certain that this policy perspective is more valid than other ones, and I certainly do not claim to know how the problem will play out in future years. But it seems to me it is a valid and sensible point of view, and for there to be a really coherent policy discussion, it ought to be part of the mix. My paper seeks to develop this underconsidered perspective, to assess its prospects and limitations, and to seek to add it to the public policy debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior research on citizen support for European integration has primarily focused on individuals? evaluations of the process of integration or its institutions, with emphasis on the importance of direct benefits and costs integration can confer. Explanations focus on overall support for integration and little work has been done on explaining public opinion on specific policy areas, such as the development of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Prior work also does not consider individuals? evaluations of member states in models. This paper will fill this gap in the research by formulating and testing a political cohesion model, which can be considered complementary to preexisting models. The analysis synthesizes systems theory with social identity theory to produce a core claim that the probability of supporting the CFSP increases with greater levels of political trust in the European Union member-states. The development of political cohesion, as measured by the amount of trust in member-states, is assumed to be reflective of a positive perception. Positive perceptions of member-states are critical because integration?s development is influenced strongly by and dependent upon the resources of the relatively more powerful European member-states. Therefore, positive perceptions of the top EU powers, namely Germany and France, improves the probability of holding a European identity and support integration, more so than trusting the remaining members. The results hold even when controlling for demographic variables, political values, ideology, and the democratic deficit. Binary logistic regression analysis using pooled repeated cross-sectional data from the Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 1992 through 1997 among individuals of 11 member-states largely support these claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore an under used resource to study congressional representation and support for the president. The data source is franked mail from the 107th Congress. In particular, we examine MCs in the context of support for or against the president. We examine the messages that representatives send to their constituents on two issue dimensions, homeland security and other domestic policies, in order to measure the members? perspectives and representational roles. We focus on MCs? views of presidential policies during a time in which America found herself under attack by terrorists and was wrestling with the after effects of those attacks. We are particularly interested in answering a set of interrelated research questions: Did legislators take positions supporting the president in the 107th Congress? How did these positions differ across homeland security and other domestic policy dimensions? And what electoral consequences did these positions have on House members? 2002 election results? We analyze legislators? platforms in relationship to positions staked out by the president, and whether MCs are in support or opposition to the president based on the messages they send to their constituents. Generally, we find that legislators sent many messages regarding both the president?s homeland security and domestic policies. Both Democratic and Republican legislators were likely to praise the president?s homeland security policies, though Republicans were likely to send more messages about homeland security than Democrats. Republicans were generally more supportive than Democrats of the president on domestic policy. Interestingly, congressional positions on the president?s policies did have an effect on the 2002 congressional elections. Legislators who frequently mentioned the homeland security policies of the president had higher general election vote shares, while legislators who frequently mentioned domestic policies of the president had lower vote shares. These electoral effects findings are not specific to the party of the legislator. This analysis and the unique data set of franked mass mailings sent by members of Congress offers insight on representation and presidential-congressional relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars interested in the link between economic interests and national security have asked whether trade follows the flag. Studies in this vein tend to examine the causal relationship between trade flows and alliances or conflictual events. While informative, this formulation of economic interests neglects a vital--and extremely significant--aspect of US economic power: financial capital. In this paper we use a gravity model of US financial flows--flows of portfolio investment, foreign direct investment and bank lending--and augment it with measures of US overseas military commitments. This allows us to examine whether countries that open their doors to US troops also become more attractive to US overseas investment. We are also able to investigate the converse: whether overseas investment plays a role in attracting US troops. Using panel data from 1950 to the present we determine whether the military follows the money or vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do some states develop secular institutions whereas others do not? Why do states with secular institutions cluster in particular regions of the world? The paper first constructs an analytically useful definition for secular state institutions that can be applied to historical as well as contemporary cases. This definition focuses on the role of religious organizations in the education system and the extent to which laws governing the private sphere follow religious dictates. The paper then argues that interstate security competition played a major role in the development of secular state institutions. In regions where security competition was intense, states sought to decrease the role of religious institutions in education and replaced them with secular ones designed to enhance technological development. In regions where interstate competition was mild, or where it was cheaper to adopt military technology than to develop it domestically, states were ultimately less likely to develop secular systems. Empirically, the project focuses on the variation in the historical development of secular states within Europe and considers whether the findings from this context can apply to other regions such as the Middle East. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]