Search

This paper examines how Georgia politics have changed over the last 50 years as Republicans emerged in the south and eventually became the majority party within the region and the state of Georgia. How did the development of a competitive two party system change legislative majorities within the State House? This paper begins to answer that question by measuring the frequency of conflict in Georgia House roll call votes along partisan, racial and urban/rural cleavage lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the link between religion and politics in the U.S. has been heavily researched, the idea of religion as a voting cue in congressional elections warrants attention. This paper expands on the idea that religion can act as a voting cue signaling voters to cast their ballot for a candidate who shares their religious affiliation. Specifically, this paper answers the question of whether individuals vote for a congressional candidate who shares their religion. Data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) 2008 post-election survey, as well as data on candidate religion from Project Vote Smart's candidate biography dataset and the 2008 Almanac of American Politics, are used to gauge the extent to which religion acts as a voting cue in U.S. House elections. This paper finds that there is indeed a relationship between the major religious group of voters and the major religious group of House candidates. In other words, this paper suggests that there is a link between voter religion and vote choice, which gives insight into both voter behavior and the link between religion and politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political disengagement of the poor poses an enduring challenge to the integrity of American democracy. In 1993, Congress attempted to address this problem by passing Section 7 of the National Voting Registration Act (NVRA), which requires that all public assistance agencies provide beneficiaries with the opportunity to register to vote. Since the passage of this legislation, compliance with Section 7 has declined steadily and has exhibited marked variation across the American states. This paper draws on federal administrative data as well as census and other contextual information to explain the reasons for such patterns. Times series cross-sectional analyses reveal that state level configurations of race and class are key determinants of section 7 implementation. Moreover, these findings reflect a combination of top-down (stemming from political elites) and bottom-up (stemming from street-level bureaucrats) influences. The paper concludes by considering the broader implications of non-compliance with Section 7 and assessing the appropriate policy tools for combatting states' tendencies towards conditional commitment to the political equality of marginal groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I examine the fundamental factors that shaped the 2012 presidential campaign and ultimately produced a fairly close but decisive victory for Barack Obama. I argue that the voting patterns seen in 2012 both at the state level and at the individual level reflected an increasingly partisan and polarized electorate. The paper also discusses some of the long-term trends within the American electorate that contributed to Obama's victory including growing racial and ethnic diversity and increasing liberalism on social issues. I argue that the 2012 results may signal the emergence, at least in presidential elections, of the long-term Democratic majority predicted a decade ago by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

House members looking to preserve their seat are at a notable advantage in comparison to potential challengers (Erikson 1971; Bickers and Stein 1996). While many factors influence incumbent advantage, few studies have been devoted to an incumbents' ability to solidify the ultimate form of incumbent security: running unopposed (for exceptions see Wrighton and Squire 1997; Squire 1989). This paper explores the tool of earmarks, a means for all incumbents to fortify their electoral advantage and deter challengers. Utilizing newly-released data on Congressional earmarks from fiscal year 2009, this paper focuses on the 2010 election to draw three substantive conclusions. First, earmarks have no measurable effect on running uncontested for Representatives from safe districts (that is districts where the incumbent received sixty percent or more of the vote in the last election). Second, as would be expected, being elected to a marginal district results in a reduced probability of running uncontested in the next election. Finally, when interacted, for those from marginal districts, earmarks have a significant and positive impact on increasing the chances a member will run unopposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that individuals who vote for the winning party in an election are more satisfied with democracy than those who backed a losing party. However, many winners deviate from their first choice in the voting booth. I argue that the ideological and psychological mechanisms that boost satisfaction should attenuate among such winners. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, this paper shows that these "non-optimal winners" do, in fact, experience a much smaller boost in satisfaction than "optimal winners," those who voted their expressed first preference. Results also demonstrate that psychological benefits better explain the boost in satisfaction associated with winning than ideological considerations. Lastly, this paper shows that the proportion of winners voting for the optimal party is more prevalent under majoritarian electoral rules, which provides a new explanation for the relatively pronounced effect of winning on satisfaction in such systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to explain Euroskeptic attitudes by examining the relationship between information and Euroskepticism and the role of Euroskepticism in the post-enlargement integration debate. Drawing upon data from the Eurobarometer survey series and the European Election Studies, this paper tests the relationship between information and attitudes towards membership and the direction of integration, as well as the relationship between information and voting in European elections. By utilizing public opinion surveys on the direction of integration post enlargement in addition to attitudes toward membership, this paper is able to address the effect of information on both hard and soft Euroskepticism. This analysis concludes the roles of knowledge and awareness have divergent influences on hard and soft Euroskepticism. While increased knowledge increases support for membership in the EU, increased awareness decreases support for the direction of integration. This conclusion is further supported by evidence from the 2004 European election that suggests as awareness increases, the likelihood of voting for a pro-EU party decreases. This conclusion suggests that knowledge may initially inform individuals of the benefits of being a member in the EU but greater awareness increases the likelihood they will be a harsher critic of the way in which it is developing, necessitating further examination of the role of the Euroskeptic movement in public opinion. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of major findings from our book-length manuscript focusing on the demographic, political and legal determinants of voter turnout in the US, 1972-2008. Using data from the American National Election Studies, 1972-2008, and the Current Population Survey, 1972-2008, we estimate the effects of demographic determinants of the vote--similar to Wolfinger and Rosenstone's analysis--but also consider the political and legal contexts and how they affect who votes and therefore the representativeness of the electorate.The paper would fit into a panel on voter turnout; demographics; electoral laws; issues and political behavior; or representation and American elections. Because we are finishing up the book project during the Fall 2009 semester, we can easily orient the paper to whatever type of panel it fits on. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper advances and improves existing post-election audit sampling methodology. Methods for determining post-election audit sampling have been the subject of extensive recent research. This paper * provides an overview of post-election audit sampling research and compares various approaches to calculating post-election audit sample sizes, focusing on risk-limiting audits,* discusses fundamental concepts common to all risk-limiting post-election audits, presenting new margin error bounds, sampling weights and sampling probabilities that improve upon existing approaches and work for any size audit unit and for single or multi-winner election contests,* provides two new simple formulas for estimating post-election audit sample sizes in cases when detailed data, expertise, or tools are not available,* summarizes four improvedmethods for calculating risk-limiting election audit sample sizes, showing how to apply precise margin error bounds to improve the accuracy and efficacy of existing methods, and* discusses sampling mistakes that reduce post-election audit effectiveness.Adequate post-election audit sampling is crucial because analyzing discrepancies found in too-small samples can determine little except that the sample size is inadequate.This paper is one of three in a series Checking Election Outcome Accuracy. The other two articles discuss post-election auditing procedures and an algorithm for deciding whether to increase the sample or to certify the election outcome in response to any discrepancies found during a post-election audit. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of Sarah Palin by John McCain in the 2008 presidential election was perceived as one of the defining moments in the campaign. Anecdotal evidence from the McCain campaign and media commentary after the election suggests that Palin may have cost McCain support among key voting groups. This paper uses data from the 2008 American National Election Study to examine the extent of any "Palin Effect." The paper also places the findings of 2008 in context by historical comparison of the effect of vice-presidential nominees on vote choice when controlling for other variables using data from the NES Cumulative File. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is it possible to consider vote boycotts a form of collective action? Under what circumstances might we consider a non-action to have the characteristics of a collective action? Depending on the context, the meaning of non-voting may be interpreted differently by observers. In the United States, for example, voting is relatively "difficult" form of political participation, so non-participation is often interpreted as a lack of interest, skills, or resources, having logistical difficulties (difficulties finding the polling places, registering, etc.), or lacking awareness of relevant political issues. In electoral authoritarian regimes, on the other hand, an election boycott by the opposition may signal dissatisfaction and represent an attempt to delegitimize rigged elections in the eyes of the electorate and/or the international community. In Israel, a phenomenon of vote boycotting among the country's Palestinian Arab minority has taken root among the most dissatisfied with their second-class citizenship. Although it is not clear to what extent the decline in Arab turnout is caused by ideological stances, it is clear that there is a large and growing movement among Israel's Palestinian Arab citizens to organize election boycotts as a means to increase their political leverage in the system and to send a message of discontent with the status quo. This movement is likely to have some impact on the voting trends in Israel.This paper will investigate the phenomenon of vote boycotting as a form of collective action, drawing upon the Israeli case. Despite the fact that refraining from voting is a "non-action," it is not costless for the individual or the collectivity. Much like "active" forms of collective action, vote boycotting can be plagued by free riding, unclear signaling, and suboptimal outcomes. The paper's analyses will use survey data from Israel's 2001 and 2003 national election studies, and the author's own survey conducted in Israel in 2001. I expect to distinguish between ideological or strategic boycott participators vs. apathetic or unaware non-participators. Furthermore, I hope to uncover to what extent boycott participation is similar to other forms of political participation, like protest. While Israel is likely to have some unique characteristics that set it apart from other countries, I believe that some general conclusions about vote boycotting can be drawn from the results of this paper. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how the usos y costumbres legislation of 1995/1997 affects the political and economic environments in Oaxaca, Mexico. Of interest is to observe the impact of the usos legislation beyond the simple (or not so simple) act of voting. In doing so, two central questions arise. First, does the 1995 legislation that provides for local level quasi self-governance for municipalities in Oaxaca have an effect on the role state and federal government plays in its distribution in public finances? Specifically, does usos change the level of federally distributed funds known as participaciones at the municipal level in an observable way?This paper examines in part the political dynamic behind intergovernmental financing in an era where quasi-autonomous uso municipalities are pulling away from state and federal level electoral participation and becoming ever more fiscally dependent on the state at the same time that the country as a whole is moving closer to a more democratic system. Solé- Vilanova (1990, 351) identifies this behavior as "consumption federalism" in autonomous municipalities in Spain; in Oaxaca this uneven balance may be a quantifiable indicator of clientelism designed to maintain PRI control at the state level. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central topic of this paper is the measurement of one variable, civic duty. This variable has become a mainstay in empirical research on individual voting behavior since the 1960s and it is one of the chief explanatory saviors of the rational choice model of voting. Nevertheless, the measurement of civic duty on the American National Elections Study is prima facie substandard. Question wording is one concern, as a number of scholars have demonstrated that seemingly small changes in question wording can have large effects on the answers individuals provide and the conclusions scholars draw. My primary concern is measurement validity, commonly defined as "whether a variable measures what it is supposed to measure" (King, Keohane, and Verba 1994). In survey research, the question is the instrument through which we measure a concept; if the wording is unclear, biased, or just plain bad, then any research that uses that indicator will also be flawed.In the paper, I will explain the controversies surrounding question wording and measurement validity; I will examine the existing body of work on civic duty; and I will empirical evaluate the validity of survey instruments that use different measures of civic duty in the United States and the United Kingdom. Possible explanations for the results, recommendations for further analysis, and the implications of these findings for research on voting behavior will also be discussed. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine the relationship between party and geography in statewide elections. We take our theoretical cue from Key's (1949) localism or "hometown" thesis that candidates should do disproportionately better in their hometown than other parts of the state. Most previous work in this area has examined the importance of localism in presidential races with some other research focusing on localism in the context of Key's one-party south. However, with the rise of the two-party south, this line of research essentially stopped. Given advances in technology and available data, we believe this question of local support versus party support deserves more scholarly attention. In this paper, we use GIS and voter roll files along with election returns to examine the relationship between geography and party in statewide elections. In this paper, we approach this question from the traditional question of votes won and lost but also from the slightly different view of voter turnout. We focus on the ability of "hometown" candidates to secure support above what we would expect based on partisanship in various races (governor and down ballot executive races). From this base model, we develop hypotheses to test for the influence and extent of localism in various conditions. In the analysis, we revisit southern states in their new two-party context and expand the analysis to non-southern states as well. Overall, this paper is our first step in merging spatial data with voter files to examine the various relationships between partisan support, voter turnout, and geography. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses data from the National Election Study to examine the impact, or lack thereof, of religious preferences in the last four U.S. presidential elections. Using multinomial logistic regression, the paper looks for the influence of religion, in terms of specific preferences as well as attendance, on presidential vote choice as well as stated preferences on individual issues as diverse as abortion rights, same-sex marriage, environmental preservation, foreign intervention, and social welfare spending. Additionally, the paper explores interactions between religious preferences and demographic characteristics such as race, gender, and age. Finally, the paper examines the relative predictive values of the traditional categorization of religion by sect and the contemporary culture war hypothesis put forth by Morris Fiorina and others, which emphasizes the importance of religiosity in determining political behavior. Specifically, I argue that the influence of the evangelical vote may be overstated by media and scholars alike. The paper concludes by suggesting that the increased importance of foreign policy in presidential elections has resulted in a decline in the influence of religion and religiously-based social preferences on voting behavior at the national level. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Party polarization among members of Congress has been increasing in recent years. While the evidence for this increasing polarization is substantial, the reasons for it have remained elusive. This paper proposes that partisan redistricting is one cause of polarization in the House of Representatives. While this explanation is not new, the theory developed in this paper uses median voter theory to explain how district level polarization can increase, while at the same time national levels of polarization among the voting public do not. Median voter theory provides an explanation of how the composition of voters within partisan redistricted districts incentivize House Members to become more ideologically extreme. Thus, partisan redistricting causes Members to change their behavior within the House in order to appease their more ideologically extreme constituency. A quantitative analysis is performed on Congressional districts using a statistical matching technique designed to demonstrate a statistically significant difference in ideological extremity among those Members within districts that have been gerrymandered as opposed to Members in non-gerrymandered districts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s position on abortion. I suggest that Kennedy’s decisions are not a product of his personal views on the matter – he is morally opposed – nor can they be explained by his overall moderately conservative voting pattern on civil liberties issues – as the attitudinal model suggests. Indeed, his votes on later abortion cases, such as Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992) could not be anticipated from his position in earlier abortion cases such as Webster v. Reproductive Health Services (1989) and Hodgson v. Minnesota (1990). Instead, I argue his decisions can only be explained by his understanding of larger political forces. I suggest that Kennedy’s votes and opinion are based on his conception of how the abortion issue fits into the dominant political regime. In the first part of the paper, I define the dominant “abortion regime” in terms of public opinion, the activity of social movements, and legislative trends. The evidence suggests that the American people are supportive of a woman’s right to choose an abortion, yet at the same time supportive of restrictions on that right. I then discuss Kennedy’s decisions and opinions in High Court, high-profile abortion cases. I argue that his position on abortion is consistent with larger political developments: i.e. in line with the “abortion regime.” Indeed, his judicial opinions suggest that he is not only conscious of where the larger polity is located on this issue, but that he uses this understanding to make his decisions. I pay particular attention to Casey as the recently released papers of Justice Harry A. Blackmun have shed knew light on the “agony” Justice Kennedy went through in ultimately changing his vote in the case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the question of whether voter turnout matters for Democratic Party success in gubernatorial elections, examining the years 1978 to 2000 in 43 states. In contrast to past research, the relative voter turnout of low and upper income people is emphasized, in contrast to examining aggregate turnout. Controlling for a variety of factors, the higher turnout among low income people compared to upper income people the better Democratic gubernatorial candidates do in elections. Together with the well-known finding that lower income people are less likely to vote compared to upper income people, this paper constitutes evidence that the electorate is not representative of the population as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the influence of electoral competition, party alternation, and voter turnout on the performance of local governments in Mexico. Using data for virtually all municipalities in the country, I investigate whether these political factors have any role in improving the levels of coverage for water, drainage, and electricity, between 1990 and 2000. I find that electoral competition has a modest influence on the growth of drainage coverage, but plays no role in the other two services. The alternation of parties is irrelevant in explaining service provision. However, voter turnout consistently emerges as a meaningful factor, which supports the proposition that policymakers are more likely to expand the provision of public goods when citizens are more active in the electoral arena. The paper suggests that competition might be better viewed as an influence on the spending choices of higher intergovernmental levels, rather than on local decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1994, Republicans have matched their success in presidential politics in the South by winning and maintaining a majority of the Southern congressional seats. One theory suggests that prior to the 1990s the paradox of Republican success in presidential elections and holdover Democratic success in congressional elections was, in part, the result of an advantage in the size and quality of the Democratic candidate pool. The theory argues that Republicans had no viable alternative to defeat Democratic candidates in open seat congressional elections, much less in elections to challenge incumbents. Recent research has shown that Republicans largely negated this advantage in the 1990s. This paper argues that alongside partisan realignment and redistricting favorable to Republicans (among other factors), changing patterns of candidate emergence contributed to the Republican?s success in winning and maintaining a majority of Southern congressional seats at the end of the 20th and into the 21st Century. This paper introduces measures of candidate emergence to the prevailing models used to explain the rise of Republican strength in Southern House elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the analyses of the book ''The Two Faces of Issue Voting,'' by Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson. It is discussed that Carmines and Stimson testes the validity of the assumption that political sophistication is a necessary prerequisite of issue voting and showed that during those elections voter sophistication to affect voter behavior was not required in some issues.

This paper does two things. First, we document the extent to which misreport persists across the past two decades of major academic voting surveys in the United States. Second, we assess whether the split population, or partial observability, model, which has recently gained prominence, provides a possible estimation-based "fix" for vote choice models that rely on survey data in which there is clear evidence of over-report for the winner. We consider both simulated data and data from the 1992 NES and SES for in-depth analysis. Especially in regards to those data that are available for past elections, estimation-based strategies likely provide the only feasible, albeit less than optimal, response in terms of addressing bias in vote choice models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political science literature on voting for decades has been influenced by a rational-choice calculus, with a strong focus on socioeconomic variables including income and education. In recent years, however, I argue that the field has turned toward a significantly more Aristotelian conception of voting, with a renewed focus on youth and civic socialization, habit formation, the role of community, and a greater understanding of the limits of rationality (or as Aristotle would have it, the logos) to compel human behavior. Very recent reform proposals by several political scientists to consider mandatory voting in America, in part to help combat economic power disparities, have remarkable similarities to proposals raised by Aristotle thousands of years ago in his Politics. Yet despite (I argue) the strong contemporary relevance of Aristotle's virtue theories, almost without exception all the foundational and recent texts on voter turnout possess either no or the briefest of references to classical political thought. This paper aims to restore the balance by a fully-derived theory of voter turnout drawn from Aristotle's Politics, Ethics and De Anima. I reinterpret some of the rational choice literature and subsequent randomized experimental literature and argue that not only does Aristotle provide an ideal synthesis for many of the most famous findings about voter turnout, the strong economic influences on this subfield would in many ways have benefited (and avoided several mistakes) with a greater classical foundation, and that Aristotle's ghost may yet have further testable hypotheses to offer to voter turnout research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to our understanding of the relationship between electoral systems and corruption by examining the impact of ballot type and district magnitude on electoral accountability. Studies emphasizing individual responsibility argue that personal-vote electoral systems promote good performance by elected politicians and constrain their malfeasance by enabling voters to identify, monitor, and hold responsible individual politicians. Another strand of the literature claims that large district magnitude ensures the availability of good politicians and electoral competition, which reduce malfeasance. Thus at first glance, personal-vote systems with relatively large magnitude districts appear to combine the beneficial attributes of the electoral systems that prior studies have shown to lower malfeasance. This study develops a proposition that due to high information costs to voters faced with many choices, multimember-district personal-vote systems may weaken, rather than strengthen, the voter-representative linkage and thus electoral accountability. One of its consequences is prevalence of corruption in these systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that new voters will be less knowledgeable and attached to the political system than returning voters. It is also claimed that it is easier for voters to understand social policies than economic policies. These two arguments lead to the prediction that economic preferences will influence the decisions of returning voters but not new voters and that social preferences will influences voters of both types. The hypotheses are testing using ANES data from every presidential election from 1988-2008. The data provide strong support for the hypotheses. If campaigns are attempting to mobilize new voters, they should focus on social issues because they are accessible to all voters. However, if campaigns are attempting to turnout established supporters, economic appeals may be more effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we synthesize and extend theoretical accounts of the solicitor general's (SG) influence on the votes of Supreme Court justices. In particular, we argue that the level of politicization exhibited by the SG can affect both the foundation of political support the SG enjoys from ideologically proximate justices and the strength of "outlier signals" offered in particular cases. When the SG exhibits increased politicization, outlier signals are likely to be especially useful to ideologically distant justices and, therefore, predictive of their behavior. When the SG is less politicized, outlier signal briefs should be more equivalent to mainstream briefs, and, therefore, relatively less informative. Analyzing justices' votes in civil liberties and civil rights cases, we find empirical support for our theoretical claims. In particular, we find that the effects of politicization in the Office of the Solicitor General and outlier signals contained in individual case briefs are conditional on one another and on the degree of ideological divergence between each justice and the SG. This study offers a more complete account of the ways that political dynamics shape executive branch litigation and linkages between the president and the Supreme Court. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most replicated findings in political science is links individuals' perceptions of past economic performance with the vote. Yet there are a number of reasons to expect that self-reported evaluations of the economy are endogenous to vote choice. Indeed, if endogeneity is present, then existing models cannot be viewed as providing a valid test of the causal claim derived from retrospective theories of voting. In this paper, we show that objective local economic conditions help to frame individuals' perceptions of the national economic situation and are a useful instrument for retrospective sociotropic evaluations. We use an instrumental variables probit model to assess the causal effect of these evaluations on the decision to vote for the incumbent president or his party's presidential candidate in the 1980 to 1996 U.S. presidential elections. We find that, while there is much greater uncertainty regarding the IV estimate for sociotropic evaluations, it is quite similar to the estimate obtained by a traditional probit model in which any potential endogeneity is ignored. Our results suggest that existing models of retrospective sociotropic voting may be robust against claims of endogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on a 2009 statewide telephone poll of registered voters in Texas, this paper investigates how voters, when voting for judge, weigh partisanship versus other factors such as campaign issues or judicial experience. We employ an experimental manipulation where respondents in our survey were provided with a hypothetical judicial candidate (varying in campaign theme as well as varying in partisanship) and then asked about the likelihood of voting for that candidate. We found that individuals rely heavily on party as a shortcut when evaluating judicial candidates. We also found that respondents with greater levels of political sophistication were more likely to be influenced by a candidate?s issue positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose and test explanations for why parties and members de- cide to put themselves \on record" in the 110th Congress. We argue that this decision is largely the product of three interacting factors. First, as Mayhew (1974) argues, members frequently use the roll call record as a means of position-taking for their up-coming elections by recording votes for important and popular bills. Second, requesting a recorded roll call vote can be part of a broader partisan \branding" strategy. Specifically, members call for recorded roll call votes with the idea of using them against members of the opposing party in the upcoming election (Smith 1989). Finally, we argue that members are less likely to request recorded roll call votes on unimportant measures and on measures considered late in the legislative session in an effort to better promote effciency on the chamberoor. We examine this theory with data on public laws passed during the 110th Congress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the causes of midterm decline in US elections is an important area of study in political science. Though there has been a lot of work on midterm decline at the national level, there has not been a lot of research about how theories of midterm decline can be applied to the US federal system. This paper focuses on establishing a relationship between the president's party and gubernatorial elections using longitudinal hierarchical linear modeling. I find that the evaluations of the president can impact elections, and that there is an important effect of presidential punishment. These results indicate the need for more research about how theories of midterm decline specifically impact state level voting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the influences racial resentment and racial stereotypes on Southern and non-Southern white, Asian, and Hispanic voters in the 2008 presidential election. I use logistic regression to test the hypotheses that racial resentment and racial stereotypes influenced support for McCain and that the influence of these two variables is greater in the South than in the non-South. The findings suggest that racial resentment's influence extends across both regions but that the affects of racial stereotypes is confined to the South. The analysis is replicated for US House elections in 2008, finding that impact of racial resentment and racial stereotypes is insignificant in both regions. In 2008, the influences of racism, resentment and regionalism on voting are confined to the presidential level [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides information on a research paper by researchers Philip Klinkner and Jesse Stinebring of the Hamilton College, Clinton, New York which analyses the impact of the race of U.S. President Barack Obama on the outcome of the 2008 election. It also examines the impact of Obama's massive spending advantage in boosting his vote beyond that predicted by election models employing standard political and economic variables.

A healthy democracy requires a citizenry that participates in political life. While interven- tions such as removing barriers to registration and mobilizing partisans have received fre- quent scholarly attention, formal civic education has been largely ignored. This paper finds, however, that students who complete a year of coursework in American Government/Civics are 3-6 percentage points more likely to vote in an election following high school than those without exposure to civic education. Further, this e®ect is magnified among students whose parents are not highly politicized. Among students who report not discussing politics with their parents, additional coursework is associated with a 7-11 percentage point increase in the probability of voting. This result suggests that civic education compensates for a relative lack of political socialization at home, and thereby enhances participatory equality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars of American politics have long been interested in the effects of divided party government on politics and policy. However, very little research has been devoted to examining the effects of divided government on Supreme Court decision making. Richardson and Scheb (1993) found that justices who are nominated and confirmed during periods of divided-party government cast more moderate votes than those appointed during periods of unified-party government. In this paper we re-examine this finding using a larger population of Supreme Court justices. We also attempt to refine their analysis by controlling for a variety of other factors. Despite these controls, we find that justices appointed under divided government tend to behave more moderately than do justices appointed during periods of unified government. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marginality theory suggests that safer legislators are more likely to vote along the party line (e.g. Patterson 1961). However, the empirical analyses yield mixed results (e.g. Deckard 1976). This paper suggests that there is a relation between legislators' electoral margin and congressional votes, but there are two more aspects to be taken into consideration. First, electoral marginality should not be considered as party loyalty level, but as legislators' vulnerability level to party pressure. Safer legislators are not necessarily more loyal in terms of supporting the party position. But when pressured, safer legislators are more vulnerable to yield to the party position. Second, as electoral margin is likely to have an impact on congressional votes via the party pressure factor, it is necessary to discern whether party pressure is "on" or "off". I hypothesize that when the party pressure is "on", electoral margin positively influence legislators' support to the party position; when the party pressure is "off", the relation between electoral margin and support to party position is absent. The hypothesis is tested against congressional vote data from the mid 70's to early 21st century. Based on previous literature, I first discern congressional votes on which party pressure is likely to be "on". Then I test whether electoral margin has an impact on legislators' support to the party position, and compare the results between votes on which party pressure is "on" and "off" respectively. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of issue voting have largely ignored heterogeneity among voters in their perceptions of the importance of various issues. Even those scholars who have taken issue importance more seriously have largely neglected the relationship between these perceptions and campaign dynamics. Do relationships between issue attitudes and vote choice change as perceptions of issue importance change over the course of a campaign? More specifically, do those who come to perceive an issue as more important by the end of campaign behave similarly to those who consistently regard the issue as important? Prior work on issue importance suggests that salience of issue attachments should fluctuate during a campaign, but this thesis has gone untested due to lack of sufficient data for exploring individual-level dynamics over time. This paper uses a unique ten-wave panel survey to conduct two analyses. The first models individual-level change in perceptions of issue importance, giving some sense of both the times during an election year when these perceptions are susceptible to change and the people whose perceptions are more likely to change. The second examines differences in the extent of issue voting among those with different perceptions of importance and different times. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A great deal of political science literature addresses how religion affects voting behavior. In particular, the 2004 election was characterized by the media and political scientists as "a matter of faith" because both Catholics and Protestants favored the Republican party due to its conservative stances on moral issues and its efforts to attract religious voters. That changed in the 2008 election, as a majority of Catholics and higher numbers of other religious groups selected the Democratic candidate, Senator Barack Obama. This paper applies Schofield and Miller's model of realignment, in which candidates employ "flanking moves" to bring new constituencies into the party to form a winning coalition, to argue that Obama was able to win the Catholic vote by emphasizing his populist economic policies while courting religious voters and downplaying his liberal stances on social issues. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When eighteen year olds gained the right to vote in 1972, political scientists expected this group to vote in large numbers, taking advantage of this new liberty. However, this did not happen as expected. Rather, youth voter turnout has been the lowest of all the voting age population. Many scholars have attempted to explain why the youth do not vote in the presidential election. In this paper, we attempt to explain some of the voting behaviors of this age group, and reach a conclusion as to what factors may lead to increases in youth voter turnout. We will look specifically at the competition of the elections and the candidate characteristics believed to be appealing to youth voters to find correlations between these factors and the youth vote. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of elite polarization on partisan ambivalence and voting behavior. Specifically, a theory is developed which predicts that although many will be ambivalent about their party as the parties have polarized, they will actually be more likely to vote for their preferred party as the other choice is now relatively worse. This is contrary to expectations that individuals suffering from partisan ambivalence will defect or abstain. Presidential elections from 1976 to 2004 are examined and results show that as the parties have polarized levels of ambivalence have increased but as this has happened partisan ambivalence has now become a positive predictor of vote choice. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between civic duty and voter turnout. More specifically, I test the causal relationship between civic duty and voting and examine how election specific factors affect that relationship. Correspondingly, I perform logistic regression analysis of American National Elections Study (ANES) data from 1972-1992. The results suggest that civic duty is a strong motivation for voting, and that civic duty has a significant and independent effect on turnout. However, civic duty appears to be a more salient motivation for individuals who are less interested in the election, do not have a preferred outcome, and who are weaker partisans. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is much debate in political science about the rationality of strategic voting. Some studies propose that strategic voting is irrational because a person is voting for someone other than his or her preferred choice. Others propose that strategic voting is rational if a person is voting for someone other than his or her preferred choice when that person's preferred choice has no chance of winning. If strategic voting is rational behavior it should be observed more often in situations where elections are extremely close. If the election is close, then it is logical that a person would defect from a third party candidate or a candidate who is far behind to defect and choose one of the frontrunners. This paper will examine the question, under what conditions would we be most likely to observe strategic voting, by comparing strategic voting in non-battleground states with strategic voting in battleground states. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the relationship between constituency preferences and legislators' votes has been fundamental for empirical inquiry about representation. The most common approach to this type of research is dyadic and focuses on how members of Congress represent their geographic constituents. These studies account for member voting behavior with rationales including representational style, ideology, partisanship, and constituent preferences (e.g., Fenno 1978; Levitt 1996; Cox and McCubbins 1993; Canes-Wrone, Brady, and Cogan 2004). By also taking voter heterogeneity into account, however, Bailey and Brady (1998) present a unique empirical analysis for explaining representational linkages. Their analysis provides evidence that studies of representation based on analysis of roll call voting which fail to account for voter heterogeneity will overestimate the impact of the party and undervalue constituency influence. Bailey and Brady, however, measure voter heterogeneity with demographic variables which do not reliably indicate voter heterogeneity on the policy issue they assess (as I explain further in this paper).In this study I provide evidence that the connection between constituency interests and representative voting behavior is clearer when one accounts for voter heterogeneity specific to the legislation. As a research validation, I conduct ordered probit analysis of Senate voting on renewable energy legislation in the 110th Congress. As a research extension, I measure voter heterogeneity by accounting for each state's percentage of industry that generates non-renewable and renewable energy. I have collected all the data for this project and carried out extensive empirical analyses that confirm my argument above. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the second time since 2004, the Korean voters were provided two ballots each under a mixed member majoritarian system in the 2008 General Election for the National Assembly: one for choosing a candidate in the single-member plurality district, and the other for supporting a party according to a nationwide proportional representation system. Using the data from a post-election survey mainly and the relevant official election results complementarily, this paper investigates the patterns of Korean voters' split-ticket voting in which they do not straightly choose a district candidate together with the candidate's party across the plurality and proportional representation elections. To what extent did such split-ticket voting take place in the 2008 General Election? What kinds of voters were likely to do ticket splitting? What plausible reasons could one provide for explaining the patterns of split-ticket voting? What political consequences might have split-ticket voting behavior brought about? By delving into these questions, this study seeks to better understand the split-ticket voting behavior of the Korean electorate in particular as well as of the voters in general, under the two-vote mixed member majoritarian or proportional system ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial theories of voting argue that voters compare their policy preferences to the issue positions of the candidates and then choose the candidate who best represents their preferred policies (Enelow and Hinich 1984). Voters, however, are expected to have only imperfect information about where the candidates stand on issues. This uncertainty can have multiple sources, including candidate obfuscation (Downs 1957, Page 1978) as well as the differential costs of acquiring information (Alvarez and Franklin JOP 1994), and is often considered to be a ubiquitous part of the political environment. Uncertainty also has important consequences for how voters choose among candidates during an election, operating as a "cost" that reduces the likelihood that a voter will support a given candidate (Alvarez 1997).Our paper seeks to expand upon the empirical evidence that uncertainty operates as a cost to voters when choosing between candidates. We use an estimation strategy applied by Bartels (AJPS 1985) in which predicted probabilities of nonresponse to candidate placement questions (constructed from a first-stage analysis) serve as measures of uncertainty in a (second-stage) regression of proximity voting. We expand upon Bartels' approach in two ways. We first seek to empirically distinguish between the effects of external sources of uncertainty attributed to candidate ambiguity and the internal sources of uncertainty due to voter attention to campaigns. Examining differences in levels of uncertainty across different presidential campaigns provides leverage over the question of candidate ambiguity.The internal sources of uncertainty are assessed by the effect of information on uncertainty, which is expected to be constant across election cycles. We also consider whether levels of uncertainty due to candidate ambiguity have declined in recent years due to the resurgence of partisanship (Bartels AJPS 2000). Second, we seek to expand Bartels' work by examining whether the cost associated with uncertainty varies across elections and types of candidates. One possibility is that the presence of an incumbent president in the election increases the cost associated with uncertainty. Finally, we also examine the effect of group-specific issue-taking by candidates on the level of external uncertainty, recognizing the incentives that candidates have to attract a larger number of voters by "sprinkling" their policy positions across the issue space (Downs 1957). ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

*Abstract: In their article, "The Conditional Nature of Presidential Responsiveness to Public Opinion," Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and Shotts (2004) argue that when the next election is soon, the president tend to alter policy decisions in response to public opinion in order to increase presidential approval ratings. It implies that presidential approval ratings may have an impact on elections. The implication has made me raise the following questions: If presidential approval may have an impact on voter choice, how it works? In other words, which voters are likely to consider it and why? In this paper, I will try to answer the questions by examining the relationship between presidential approval and vote choice in presidential primaries. Specifically, I will examine the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination campaigns to see how presidential approval can affect the voting behavior of the opposition party supporters. I expect that presidential approval can be more influential to the opposition party supporters who are dissatisfied with the incumbent candidate than the others. They will be more likely to support "electable" candidates, who seem to have more chance to defeat the incumbent candidate in November, since defeating the incumbent candidate in November is the most important in making their vote decisions.* Hypothesis: The more the opposition party supporters are dissatisfied with the incumbent candidate on the other side, the more they are likely to support "electable" candidates of their party.* Data: National Election Pool Democratic Presidential Preference Primary Exit Polls, 2004, made available by ICPSR (Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research). ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The average voter in European Parliament elections violates the normative ideals of democratic theory by being disinterested and uninformed. However, given the limitations of human cognition, the normative ideals of democratic theory are unrealistic. In this paper I use an alternative standard that suggests voters fulfill their democratic obligations if they "vote correctly." Using an operationalization of correct voting developed in experimental research and adapted for use in survey data, I compare actual votes to an objective determination of how the voter would have voted if they were fully informed about their own preferences. I calculate that 71 percent of European voters cast a correct vote in the 1999 European Parliament election, although there is considerable variation across the 15 member states. I also examine the individual determinates of correct voting and find little to no evidence for a "democratic deficit." Finally, I compare the allocation of seats in the Parliament based on actual and correct voting and find little difference. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The average voter in European Parliament elections violates the normative ideals of democratic theory by being disinterested and uninformed. However, given the limitations of human cognition, the normative ideals of democratic theory are unrealistic. In this paper I use an alternative standard that suggests voters fulfill their democratic obligations if they "vote correctly." Using an operationalization of correct voting developed in experimental research and adapted for use in survey data, I compare actual votes to an objective determination of how the voter would have voted if they were fully informed about their own preferences. I calculate that 69 percent of European voters cast a correct vote in the 1999 European Parliament election, although there is considerable variation across the 15 member states. I also examine the individual determinates of correct voting and find little to no evidence for a "democratic deficit." Finally, I compare the allocation of seats in the Parliament based on actual and correct voting and find little difference. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has demonstrated that white voters are less likely to support African American candidates (Reeves 1997; Terkildsen 1993; Citron et al 1990; but see Sigelman et al. 1995; Highton 2001). This paper examines the campaigns of African American state legislative candidates to assess under what conditions white voters will cast ballots for African American candidates in state legislative elections. Drawing on candidate and campaign centered theories of voting behavior, I argue that African American candidates who use deracialized issue strategies garner higher levels of white voter support than those who do not. More specifically, I contend that African American candidates who focus on economic and social welfare issues will be more likely to attract white voters to their campaigns. Ordinary Least Squares regression models show that African American candidates' issue strategy significantly influences white crossover voting. The results also confirm the positive impact of deracialization in majority white electoral districts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Howard Baker’s leadership of the United States Senate impacted Senate Coalitions, Party cohesion and success on the Floor. This paper demonstrates that Baker’s leadership was nuanced and subtle, but measurable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both pooled aggregate analysis of the American states (Kone and Winters, 1993) and cross-sectional individual-level analysis of election exit polls in the states (Niemi et al., 1995) established weak negative impacts of changing taxes on subsequent vote outcomes and voter behavior. Our research investigates the impact of legislated changes in the sales, income, and "sin" taxes on individual voting using exit polls from 43 states in 228 elections from 1982-2000 yielding about 315,000 respondents. We hypothesize conditions that affect the tax-vote linkage. We find stronger negative effects of changes in the sales tax on vote choice, but little or no impact of changes in either the income or sin taxes. Some other non-obvious findings of the paper include: Republican candidates defending tax records do worse than Democratic candidates, a trait that appears concentrated among open seat Republicans. By decomposing into types of taxes changed, it appears that Republicans are particularly sensitive to sales tax changes, especially if an incumbent, and open seat Republicans to their party-predecessor's income tax changes. Of the impact of tax changes on voters, there appears to be little variation in the impact of tax changes on lower or upper income classes nor by party identification of the voter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]