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The shifting of a country’s age structure has far-reaching socioeconomic and policy implications. In the US, the changing age structure at the sub-national level has received little research attention. To address this gap, we examine age dependencies across states in the US between 1990 and 2010 using decennial census data. We find that dependency changes have been gradual with a distinct graying of states during this period. Within this overarching trend, the sources of states’ dependencies follow complicated trajectories without clear spatiotemporal patterns. Nevertheless, changes in states’ old-age dependency contributions to respective total dependencies are geographically clustered and the inverse link between old-age dependency and economic productivity across states may be waning. Additional research is justified to further unravel these trends in old-age dependencies. The analytic framework that we apply can be adopted to conduct sub-national age dependency studies for other countries, including some European nations with relatively large proportions of older adults and many developing nations with an increasing share of older adults.

In this paper we use a statistical model and data from a sample of forty-five African economies to empirically analyze the impact of several dimensions of the demographic transition on per capita GDP growth. We observe that the results are more robust when interactive variables are included in the model. We are able to draw the following conclusions: (1) the effect of population growth on per capita GDP growth is linear and negative. However, this variable is not statistically significant when interaction terms are included in the statistical model. Rather, its interaction with the level of urbanization negatively influences per capita GDP growth. Governments in African countries with a higher level of urbanization can devise policies aimed at slowing down population growth in order to stimulate growth. China provides a clear example by suddenly introducing a collection of highly coercive methods to reduce the total fertility rate from about 5.8 to 2.2 births per woman between 1970 and 1980; (2) since a decline in fertility affects the age structure of the population of an African country, it is found to have a significant statistical negative impact on economic growth when the interaction term between this variable and urban population growth is included in the model. However, the effect of this interaction term is positive, suggesting that African countries that have high fertility rates and rapid urban population growth rates tend to experience higher per capita GDP growth; (3) on the other hand, while the old dependency ratio itself positively affects per capita GDP growth, the impact of its interaction with the level of urbanization is negative, while the level of urbanization itself exerts a positive impact on economic growth; (4) African countries in the sub-Saharan region tend to experience lower per capita GDP growth relative to those outside the region, but the effect of this location dummy variable is not as strong when interaction terms are included in the statistical model.- In questo studio si utilizza un modello statistico con dati ottenuti da un campione di quarantacinque economie africane per analizzare empiricamente l’impatto delle diverse dimensioni di transizione demografica sulla crescita del PIL pro capite. I risultati evidenziati sono più robusti quando le interazioni tra le variabili sono incluse nel modello. Si ottengono le seguenti conclusioni: (1) l’effetto dell’aumento della popolazione sul PIL pro capite è lineare e negativo. In ogni caso questa variabile non è statisticamente significativa quando i termini di interazione sono inclusi nel modello. Peraltro la sua interazione con il livello di urbanizzazione influenza negativamente la crescita del PIL pro capite. I governi dei paesi africani aventi un alto livello di urbanizzazione possono attuare politiche di rallentamento dell’aumento demografico per stimolare la crescita. La Cina ne è un esempio con l’improvvisa introduzione di un insieme di misure coercitive per ridurre il tasso di fertilità totale da 5.8 circa a 2.2 nascite per donna nel periodo 1970-1980; (2) poiché una riduzione del tasso di fertilità ha influenza sulla composizione per età della popolazione, si deduce che tale riduzione ha un’influenza negativa statisticamente significativa sulla crescita economica quando il termine di interazione tra questa variabile e l’aumento della popolazione urbana è incluso nel modello. Comunque gli effetti di questo termine di interazione sono positivi, il che suggerisce che i paesi africani aventi un alto tasso di fertilità tendono ad avere un maggior tasso di aumento del PIL pro capite; (3) dall’altro lato, mentre il vecchio rapporto di dipendenza influisce di per sé positivamente sulla crescita del PIL pro capite, l’impatto di questa interazione con il livello di urbanizzazione è negativo, mentre il livello di urbanizzazione stesso esercita un impatto positivo sulla crescita economica; (4) nei paesi dell’Africa subsahariana l’aumento del PIL pro capite tende ad essere inferiore relativamente agli altri paesi, ma l’effetto di questa variabile geografica dummy non è così forte quando i termini di interazione sono inclusi nel modello statistico.

This report was prepared at the request of the Philippines Social Security System (SSS) to analyze key challenges and propose reform options to improve the sustainability and expand the coverage of old age income protection for private sector workers. A simulation employing the Pension Reform Options Simulation Toolkit (PROST) found that the SSS scheme will face outflows greater than inflows in about 20 years and depletion of its assets in about 28 years. Fortunately, its medium-term financing issues can be addressed through the gradual introduction of parametric reforms that shield workers and retirees from abrupt changes in contributions and benefits. At the same time, the Philippines faces a challenge to improve the defacto coverage of workers by Social Security, and to increase the income protection coverage of the elderly. Options suggested include SSS measures to leverage its identification system and introduce a special instrument for informal workers. Rather than introducing matching contribution subsidies to expand coverage, it was suggested to broaden the scope of beneficiaries eligible for social pensions. Beyond the scope of the SSS, additional measures were suggested including those to improve the access and efficiency of contributions and payments systems, strengthening mobile-money platforms and efforts to improve access to savings instruments, particularly for small and isolated savers. The report points out that the key means of improving coverage lies beyond the scope of social security or pensions, namely, to improve the quantity and quality of wage-based employment.

The Malawi Urbanization Review aims to provide fresh perspectives on urbanization in Malawi, by analyzing the current and potential contribution of urbanization to long-term national development and the current institutional and financial capacity of local governments to manage the process. Analyses presented in this report are particularly timely as Malawi is planning for the coming half decade through the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) III (2016-2020). Malawi is urbanizing at a moderate rate and has a good chance of proactively managing the urbanization process. Opportunities may arise from a positive structural change that Malawi’s economy is undergoing, whereby the driver of growth and job creation moves from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. Faster urbanization, with strong linkages with rural areas, can contribute further to deepening such structural change. To unlock the potential of urbanization as a catalyst for long-term economic development, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity of urban local governments to generate revenues and meet the key infrastructure and service needs in urban areas, which remain challenging even at the current rate of urbanization.

In 2010, Greece, under the pressure of an increasing public debt, was forced to resort to the Troika, which is the designation of the triumvirate which comprises the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Troika agreed to provide Greece with financial help, on special terms recorded in a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Greek Government and the Troika. One of the most important reforms that are recorded in the MoU is the Pension Reform since the Greek Social Security System had long showed signs of unsustainability and insolvency. The recession also caused further impoverishment of old-age people followed by the rest of the population and this became one of the main reasons that the reforms could not be fully implemented for fear of further impoverishment of pensioners and social exclusion in general, as well as political cost which is always a key factor. This paper aims to further analyze and present the impact of the reforms on the Greek Pension System and the people who rely on it, through an actuarial, statistical analysis and point out the changes in the main factors mentioned above and how they correlate.

This paper exploits data from a rotating panel that follows individuals for four quarters to shed light on the factors driving the time use decisions and restrictions faced by Mexican youth. The results of the analysis imply that: (i) once youth aged 15 to 18 years old leave school, it is very unlikely that they will return; (ii) being "neither in work nor in school" (Nini) is a highly persistent condition; and (iii) marriage (perhaps motivated by teen pregnancy) increases the probability of girls leaving school and raising children by themselves, which may in turn increase their future likelihood of being Ninis, as well as the probability of their children growing up to become Ninis, potentially creating an intergenerational transmission of Nininess. Similar results are found for other countries in the region (Brazil and Argentina).

In recent years, Turkey has been host to more than two million Syrians seeking refuge. Initially concentrated in the southeastern regions, these refugees now reside throughout the country. There are many questions from policy makers regarding the impact of the population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection on the host community. This paper examines the impact of migrants on regional host communities from a poverty perspective. The paper does not find any negative impacts on poverty for the host community from the increasing population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection as of 2013, despite the high poverty rates experienced among the recent migrants.

The authors investigate determinants of individual migration decisions in Vietnam, a country with increasingly high levels of geographical labor mobility. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) of 2012, the authors find that probability of migration is strongly associated with individual, household and community-level characteristics. The probability of migration is higher for young people and those with post-secondary education. Migrants are more likely to be from households with better-educated household heads, female-headed households, and households with higher youth dependency ratios. Members of ethnic minority groups are much less likely to migrate, other things equal. Using multinomial logit methods, we distinguish migration by broad destination, and find that those moving to Ho Chi Minh City or Hanoi have broadly similar characteristics and drivers of migration to those moving to other destinations. The authors also use VHLSS 2012 together with VHLSS 2010, which allows us to focus on a narrow cohort of recent migrants, those present in the household in 2010, but who have moved away by 2012. This yields much tighter results. For education below upper secondary school, the evidence on positive selection by education is much stronger. However, the ethnic minority ‘penalty’ on spatial labor mobility remains strong and significant, even after controlling for specific characteristics of households and communes. This lack of mobility is a leading candidate to explain the distinctive persistence of poverty among Vietnam’s ethnic minority populations, even as national poverty has sharply diminished.

Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.

Policymakers in many countries, including the Russian Federation, are attempting to encourage fertility as part of their response to the challenge of population aging. Whether pro-natalist policies will be effective depends crucially on how well they address the underlying causes of low fertility and barriers to larger family size. While in some countries in Western Europe postponing childbearing and increased childlessness seem to be driving the fertility decline, these factors do not appear to be as influential in Russia. Instead, the problem seems to be the relatively low frequency of second and higher-order births, which persists despite major changes to pro-natalist policies introduced in 2007 and the prevalence of the two-child ideal of family size. This study analyzes current and prospective fertility trends in contemporary Russia, with special attention to second-child birth dynamics and its determinants. Stable employment and accessibility of formal childcare options are found to be factors that are correlated with mothers preferences for additional children and the probability that they will have a second child. In light of this observation and international experience, a menu of policies to improve work-family balance is suggested.

The six countries of South East Europe (SEE6) are aging fast and catching up with developed economies that are already far advanced in the aging process. Low fertility rates are reducing working-age populations across the SEE6. The adverse SEE6 demographic dynamic is aggravated by emigration. In the absence of any policy and behavioral responses or changes in labor productivity, and where population aging reflects solely declining overall labor force participation rates, aging itself would be expected to negatively impact economic growth. Boosts in productivity are one of the key ways to counterbalance potential negative effects of aging on economic growth. Changes in both individual and business behavior supported by policies that increase quality of human capital and encourage labor force participation can help seize the opportunities and mitigate the adverse effects of an aging population.

Russia’s population is expected to age significantly over the next few decades. The coming decline in Russia’s working-age population will pose serious social and economic challenges, but it can also open up opportunities. Without adequate adjustments of policies and behaviors, an aging population can impair national growth and fiscal sustainability. These pessimistic forecasts, however, are based on the unrealistic assumption that individuals and government policy will not change. Achieving healthy, active, and prosperous aging will require policy changes across a host of areas. Policies to support women can both limit population aging and increase labor force participation. Changes in behavior and policy can greatly mitigate the impact of aging on growth and fiscal sustainability. Promoting adult education and better age-management human resources policies at the firm level is essential to improve the employment prospects for older workers and raise productivity across the age spectrum. This volume presents research from the World Bank on the impact of demographic trends in Russia. The first section focuses on the macroeconomic impacts of aging and considers how aging has affected gross domestic product (GDP) growth and convergence among Russian regions since the early 1990s; it also offers alternative approaches to forecasting the relationship between aging and growth. The second section, dealing with the relationship of human development outcomes and demographics, discusses how family policies can help women have more children, and still attain greater and longer participation in the labor force. The last part addresses the role of adult education in improving Russia’s competitiveness and enabling longer and more productive working lives. A final section pulls together the main conclusions.

This report provides an initial stocktaking of the characteristics, environment and performance of public and private pensions and elderly assistance programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. It identifies key challenges and suggests reform options for consideration. Considerations for future work and principles for pension policies are also suggested. Two major challenges noted in the report are the need to increase coverage of the labor force by pensions and social insurance schemes, and to increase the proportion of poor elderly covered by social assistance. The report suggests that improving coverage will require a number of parametric reforms to existing contributory schemes, strengthening institutions to serve informal sector workers, and piloting new design options. The report also proposes other parametric reforms, including the harmonization or merger of civil service and national pension schemes. Finally, the report recommends principles to consider for reform, including measures to improve coverage, protect the elderly poor, and better align pension design with needs and enabling conditions, including the needs of rural and informal sector workers.

Developing countries have urbanized rapidly since 1950. To explain urbanization, standard models emphasize rural-urban migration, focusing on rural push factors (agricultural modernization and rural poverty) and urban pull factors (industrialization and urban-biased policies). Using new historical data on urban birth and death rates for seven countries from Industrial Europe (1800–1910) and thirty-five developing countries (1960–2010), this paper argues that a non-negligible part of developing countries’ rapid urban growth and urbanization may also be linked to demographic factors, such as rapid internal urban population growth, or an urban push. High urban natural increase in today’s developing countries follows from lower urban mortality, relative to Industrial Europe, where higher urban deaths offset urban births. This compounds the effects of migration and displays strong associations with urban congestion, providing additional insight into the phenomenon of urbanization without growth.

This paper is motivated by two stylized facts about poverty in Africa: female-headed households tend to be poorer, and poverty has been falling in the aggregate since the 1990s. These facts raise two questions: How have female-headed households fared? And what role have they played in Africas impressive recent aggregate growth and poverty reduction? Using data covering the entire region, the paper reexamines the current prevalence and characteristics of female-headed households, and asks whether their prevalence has been rising over time, what factors have been associated with such changes since the mid-1990s, and whether poverty has fallen equi-proportionately for male- and female-headed households. Rising gross domestic product has dampened rising female headship. However, other subtle transformations occurring across Africa—changes in marriage behavior, family formation, health, and education—have put upward pressure on female headship, with the result that the share of female-headed households has been growing. This has been happening alongside declining aggregate poverty incidence. However, rather than being left behind, female-headed households have generally seen faster poverty reduction. As a whole, this group has contributed almost as much to the reduction in poverty as male-headed households, despite the smaller share of female-headed households in the population.

This paper examines the impact of labor migration from a welfare and social development perspective. Rather than focusing on regulatory and legal aspects determining migration, this note centers on the impacts of migration on the domestic welfare of households in the Kyrgyz Republic. The profiling of labor migration and identification of knowledge gaps are used to inform the development of strategies for more effective and sustainable welfare impacts from labor migration and remittances.

Without appropriate policies to address the expected rise in the care burden, population aging can reduce womens access to economic opportunities and decelerate future growth, thereby threatening the agenda of poverty reduction and shared prosperity in Europe and Central Asia. Based on the analysis of existing and newly collected quantitative and qualitative data, several key policy recommendations can be formulated for policymakers consideration: (a) improvement of the accessibility, affordability, and quality of formal childcare and eldercare options offers a way to address challenges related to excessive reliance on informal care and to capitalize on current opportunities; (b) the design of future demographic, health, and education policy reforms should take into account any potential effects on informal care providers; (c) care leave (both paid and unpaid) can shape families choices about care and market work; (d) flexible work arrangements can function as effective alternatives to unpaid leave; and (e) care-related allowances (both in-kind and cash) aim to promote quality care for children and elders and recognize the work of caregivers but may have negative repercussions on caregivers labor force outcomes. Increased recognition of the critical role of care in aging societies and careful review of the policy environment related to formal and informal care provision can help governments to harness the full potential of demographics, thereby promoting poverty reduction and shared prosperity.

Aging may be one of the most far-reaching processes defining the economic, fiscal, and social changes societies are likely to experience over the next 40 years. The demographic consequences of aging will have a dramatic impact on labor markets, economic growth, social structures--and government budgets. These issues have gained urgency after the second largest global recession in the past 100 years. Based on a broad comparative analysis of countries that include the EU and non-EU European and Central Asian countries, as well as several case studies and model simulations, the paper seeks to provide broad answers--tailored in part to distinct groups of countries according to their aging-fiscal profiles--to major questions facing governments budgets in aging societies: What are the fiscal-aging profiles of Western European, emerging European, and Central Asian countries? In other words, how good or bad is their fiscal situation--"initial conditions"--in view of their emerging aging-related problems? What kind of public spending pressures are likely to emerge in the coming decades, and what will be their relative importance? How do countries compare in terms of the possible impacts of aging on growth and long-term debt sustainability? What can be learned from in-depth and comparative case studies of aging, fiscal sustainability, and fiscal reform? Are there good-practice examples--countries doing things right at the right time--that may offer lessons for the others? And, perhaps most important, given the need for long-term fiscal consolidation for many countries, what kind of revenue and expenditure policy agendas are likely to emerge to mitigate the effects of aging? A key policy conclusion is that countries should aim for early rather than delayed reforms dealing with long-term aging pressures. The urgency is accentuated by the debt situations and/or adverse debt and demographic dynamics in almost all countries but also by the evolving voter preferences. As societies age and voting preferences increasingly reflect the political will of the older population, it will become more difficult to enact the necessary reforms ensuring social and fiscal sustainability.

Europe’s population is growing older. People are living longer and healthier lives. Wealthier European Union (EU) countries have enjoyed near‐universal access to better health care and seen public health promotion and lifestyle changes that have reduced the morbidity and mortality due to heart disease, an effort known as the “cardiovascular revolution”. As a result the EU‐15 countries enjoy an average life expectancy of 81 years. At the same time, EU‐15 countries have also witnessed a drop in fertility since the 1970s, though recently fertility has stabilized or reincreased in a number of countries.

This background paper was prepared for the East Asia Pacific aging report. The East Asia and Pacific region grew at an unparalleled rate in the past 50 years. This economic boom is partly attributable to unprecedented demographic changes in East Asia during this period. But demographics are only part of the story. The size of the economic bonus or burden which results from population aging depends on how policy influences labor force participation, savings, human capital accumulation and total factor productivity.

The circular interplay between demography-employment-productivity-PayGo is investigated for Italy and Italian geographical repartitions. Looking forward to the mid-long run, the paper offers simulations of the burden each effective worker and each active citizen will have to bear to finance via pay-as-you-go public health care provisions and pensions. This paper is completely self standing but, at the same time, it is part of the wider project "Present and Future of PayGo in Italy, Europe and Us". It constitutes the third chapter of this project, the first and the second being uploaded on MPRA as well. Other chapters follow. nicola c. salerno (nicola.salerno@tin.it)

This policy note examines Thailand's programs for preventing poverty among the elderly, and suggests options for improving the effectiveness of these programs. The number of elderly people in Thailand will increase dramatically over the next 30 years, and the elderly already have a higher poverty rate than the population as a whole. Although Thailand currently has a total of eight pension programs, the majority of the benefits go to those who are not poor. In addition, unlike most countries, Thailand lacks a pension and provident fund supervision agency or a consolidated financial institution regulator, and does not appear to have a well-articulated national pension policy. This has led to the development of two major sets of pension programs, with one group sponsored by the ministry of labor and the social security office, and the other by the ministry of finance and the securities commission. These are also supplemented by an assortment of social assistance and community programs sponsored by the ministry of social development and human security and the ministry of interior. This policy note will examine the above issues in more detail and recommend policy options to simplify and coordinate the various pension and social assistance programs aimed at preventing poverty among the elderly, target more spending at the elderly poor, and assure long-term fiscal sustainability.

Afghanistan will experience a major security and development transition over the next three years. At the Kabul and Lisbon Conferences in 2010, NATO and the Afghan government agreed that full responsibility for security would be handed over to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) by the end of 2014. Development progress since 2001 has been mixed. Some major achievements have been recorded, such as rapid economic growth (with large fluctuations), relatively low inflation (after hyperinflation in the 1990s), better public financial management, and gains in basic health and education. Key social indicators, including life expectancy and maternal mortality, have improved markedly (admittedly from an extremely low base), and women are participating more in the economy. Yet in other respects, particularly governance and institution building, the country has fared less well, and many indicators have worsened in recent years. Afghanistan remains one of the world's least developed countries, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of only $528 in 2010/11. More than a third of the population live below the poverty line, more than half are vulnerable and at serious risk of falling into poverty, and three?quarters are illiterate. This report is intended to be comprehensive, so it also discusses the broader historical and political economy context of development in the country, and how Afghanistan compares with other countries that have undergone their own transitions over the past 30 years. This report is based on data collected from various sources in 2011, and its analysis and findings therefore comprise the team's considered assessment using the best available information available by the end of that year. In addition, projections of future trends in Afghanistan inevitably are subject to uncertainty and reflect any weaknesses in the underlying data. Thus the report's projections should be seen as subject to further adjustments and improvements as better and more recent information become available. This report is presented in two volumes. Volume one is a stand?alone Overview which highlights the main findings, projections, and recommendations of the study. Volume two consists of five chapters presenting the detailed empirical background, analytical findings, projections, and recommendations of the study, along with a concluding chapter and three technical appendices.

Inclusive growth (IG) analysis involves analyzing the available data in a country to determine the best course of action for accelerating growth and or improving the distribution of the opportunities and benefits from the growth process. In economies in which international migration is a significant trend, that determination may be especially challenging. The international migration phenomenon can contribute to (or detract from) growth and its distribution through myriad number of complex and sometimes divergent channels, and these effects can change substantially over time. The ability to analyze these impacts, however, is often significantly handicapped by a lack of appropriate data. Moreover, because the migration decision is inherently a private decision made by households in the best interest of their welfare, determining the policy conclusions based on the results of inclusive growth analysis is often unclear. Governments are rightfully wary of interfering with the migration process. This paper examines the issue of international migration in inclusive growth. The aim is to provide the practitioners of inclusive growth diagnostics a useful framework for assessing the nature of the international migration phenomenon, and to highlight the key tools utilized in evaluating its current and potential impact on shared growth.

The pace of economic activity is gradually returning to pre-crisis levels. After a roller-coaster of sharp drops, vigorous rebounds and mild contractions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up 4.8 percent in the last quarter of 2010 on a seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) basis, closer to pre-crisis, normal levels. For 2010 as a whole, GDP expanded by 7.8 percent from 2009. Growth was broad-based, with significant contributions from external and domestic demands. Thailand's economy is one of the most energy intensive in the region because of the large (and growing) share of energy-intensive manufacturing in the economy and high proportion of cargo transported by trucks. Thailand can reduce its vulnerability to oil price shocks by raising fuel standards, improving tax incentives for conservation and relying more on rail for cargo transport.

Viet Nam has undergone a major socio-economic transformation over the past quarter century, rising from one of the poorest countries in the world to a middle income country. Today it continues to develop rapidly, becoming more integrated with the global economy and undergoing significant regulatory and structural changes. Viet Nam has also made remarkable progress on gender equality, but important gender differences still remain. On the positive side Viet Nam has had considerable progress in addressing gender disparities in education, employment and health. The gender gap in earnings is lower in Viet Nam than in many other East Asian countries. Indeed by a number of measures, women's outcomes have improved significantly. However, upon deeper examination of the data, a number of challenges still remain. The report is organized into five chapters. The current chapter has provided a background to the report and the process through which it has been prepared. The next three chapters will deal with the substantive issues, focusing primarily on gender but addressing ethnicity and other forms of social inequality where relevant. Chapter two will provide an analysis of the situation and trends in gender equality in relation to the multiple dimensions of poverty, some of which are included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Chapter three will provide an in-depth gender analysis of livelihoods and employment, bearing in mind the likely impact of the recent crisis as well as the challenges of transition to middle income status. Chapter four will pick up on the issue of women's political participation in leadership positions and in the wider society. The final chapter will synthesize the key findings of the report and prioritize key recommendations.

Despite its volatile history, the Islamic Republic of Iran has performed well on social indicators, especially in providing basic services such as health care and education. Iran's fertility decline may have proceeded in two stages, the first beginning in the late 1960s. The Iranian government introduced a family planning program during the 1960s with explicit health and demographic objectives. Between 1967 and 1977, fertility declined-mainly in urban areas-to an average of 4 children per woman. Although the family planning program continued after the 1979 Islamic revolution, it was suspended after war broke out with Iraq in 1980. During the war, the government pursued a pronatalist population policy, including incentives for childbearing. The fertility decline coincided with improvements in primary and secondary education, possibly affecting the rapid decline in adolescent fertility during 1997-2006, especially when compared to other Middle East and North Africa region countries. Today regional disparities in fertility exist with higher fertility in less developed districts. Yet Iran's example shows how good public policy interventions in health (including family planning) and education can reduce fertility and contribute to human development.