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A compilation of several cruises data from 1998 to 2013 was used to derive polynomial fits that estimate total alkalinity (AT) and total inorganic carbon (CT) from measurements of salinity and temperature in the Mediterranean Sea surface waters. The optimal equations were chosen based on the 10-fold cross validation results and revealed that a second and third order polynomials fit the AT and CT data respectively. The AT surface fit showed an improved root mean square error (RMSE) of ±10.6 μmol kg-1. Furthermore we present the first annual mean CT parameterization for the Mediterranean Sea surface waters with a RMSE of ±14.3 μmol kg-1. Excluding the marginal seas of the Adriatic and the Aegean, these equations can be used to estimate AT and CT in case of the lack of measurements. The seven years averages (2005-2012) mapped using the quarter degree climatologies of the World Ocean Atlas 2013 showed that in surface waters AT and CT have similar patterns with an increasing eastward gradient. The surface variability is influenced by the inflow of cold Atlantic waters through the Strait of Gibraltar and by the oligotrophic and thermohaline gradient that characterize the Mediterranean Sea. The summer-winter seasonality was also mapped and showed different patterns for AT and CT. During the winter, the AT and CT concentrations were higher in the western than in the eastern basin, primarily due to the deepening of the mixed layer and upwelling of dense waters. The opposite was observed in the summer where the eastern basin was marked by higher AT and CT concentrations than in winter. The strong evaporation that takes place in this season along with the ultra-oligotrophy of the eastern basin determines the increase of both AT and CT concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the metrics used for comparing greenhouse gases with focus on the Integrated Temperature Change Potential (IGTP). It states that the IGTP and global warming potentials (GWP) are asymptotically equal is the time horizon reaches infinity. It says that the IGTP is equal to the Sustained Global Temperature change Potential (SGTP) under standard assumptions when calculating GWPs.

The article discusses the interpretation and definition of quantities relating to climate sensitivity in the discussions paper "Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene," by M. Previdi and colleagues. It states that the paper brought several errors and inconsistencies in the discussion of climate sensitivity. It says that definition of temperature which denoted surface temperature was inconsistent.

The article presents a study on volcanic eruptions' impacts on biogeochemistry and climate in a coupled carbon-climate model. The study compared Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) with direct observations of Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991. It notes that the test could be conducted with no control simulation in instances where running separate ensembles without and with volcanic eruptions was not practical.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a key role in the water cycle of High Asia and its downstream regions. The respective influence of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon on TP precipitation and the regional water resources, together with the detection of moisture transport pathways and source regions are subject of recent research. In this study we present a twelve-year high-resolution climatology of the atmospheric water transport (AWT) on and towards the TP, using a new dataset, the High Asia Reanalysis (HAR), which better represents the complex topography of the TP and surrounding high mountain ranges than coarse resolution datasets. We focus on spatio temporal patterns, vertical distribution and transport through the TP boundaries. The results show that the mid-latitude westerlies have a higher share in summertime AWT on the TP than assumed so far. Water vapour (WV) transport constitute the main part, whereby transports of water as cloud particles (CP) play also a role in winter in the Karakoram and western Himalayan regions. High mountain valleys in the Himalayas facilitate AWT from the south whereas the high mountain regions inhibit the AWT to a large extend and limit the influence of the Indian summer monsoon. No transport from the East Asian monsoon to the TP could be detected. Our results show that 40% of the atmospheric moisture needed for precipitation comes from outside the TP, while the remaining 60% are provided by local moisture recycling. How far precipitation variability can be explained by variable moisture supply has to be studied in future research by analysing the atmospheric dynamic and moisture recycling more in detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) carries large amounts of heat into the North Atlantic influencing climate regionally as well as globally. Paleorecords and simulations with comprehensive climate models suggest that the positive saltadvection feedback may yield a threshold behaviour of the system. That is to say that beyond a certain amount of freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, no meridional overturning circulation can be sustained. Concepts of monitoring the AMOC and identifying its vicinity to the threshold rely on the fact that the volume flux defining the AMOC will be reduced when approaching the threshold. Here we advance conceptual models that have been used in a paradigmatic way to understand the AMOC, by introducing a density-dependent parameterization for the Southern Ocean eddies. This additional degree of freedom uncovers a mechanism by which the AMOC can increase with additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, before it reaches the threshold and collapses: an AMOC that is mainly wind-driven will have a constant upwelling as long as the Southern Ocean winds do not change significantly. The downward transport of tracers occurs either in the northern sinking regions or through Southern Ocean eddies. If freshwater is transported, either atmospherically or via horizontal gyres, from the low-to high-latitudes, this would reduce the eddy transport and by continuity increase the northern sinking which defines the AMOC until a threshold is reached at which the AMOC cannot be sustained. If dominant in the real ocean this mechanism would have significant consequences for monitoring the AMOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth's climate exhibits internal modes of variability on various time scales. Here we investigate multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the control runs of an ensemble of CMIP5 models. By decomposing global- mean-temperature (GMT) variance into contributions of the AMOC and Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent using a graph-theoretical statistical approach, we find the AMOC to contribute 8% to GMT variability in the ensemble mean. Our results highlight the importance of AMOC sea-ice feedbacks that explain 5% of the GMT variance, while the contribution solely related to the AMOC is found to be about 3 %. As a consequence of multi-decadal AMOC variability, we report substantial variations in North Atlantic deepocean heat content with trends of up to 0.7×1022 J decade-1 that are of the order of observed changes over the last decade and consistent with the reduced GMT warming trend over this period. Although these temperature anomalies are largely density-compensated by salinity changes, we find a robust negative correlation between the AMOC and North Atlantic deep-ocean density with density lagging the AMOC by 5 to 11 yr in most models. While this would in principle allow for a self-sustained oscillatory behavior of the coupled AMOC-deep-ocean system, our results are inconclusive about the role of this feedback in the model ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which investigated vegetation dynamics' effect on anthropogenic climate change. The study assessed vegetation-carbon cycle and vegetation-climate interactions during climate change with the use of Earth System Model Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM). It notes that vegetation dynamics have impact on the changing regional and global climate.

The article presents a study on sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for terrestrial Holocene climate. It states that Planet Simulator, an intermediate complexity Earth System model was used to carry out climate simulation. It mentions that the sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate was determined with SST anomalies to provide climate simulation that reflects the proxy-derived climate during the Holocene.

The article focuses on an analysis of the sensitivity of short-term cloud feedback to various aspects such as temperature datasets, top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and radiative flux data. It explores the difference among radiative flux data sources as well as potential limitations of the method. It concludes that the variations in cloud forcing are due to climatological changes and fast response to aerosol forcing.

The article discusses a study on a Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) solution for climate model. It mentions the application of its hypothesis to a four-box model of climate which answers for horizontal and vertical material heat fluxes. It also notes that the solution is found with realistic temperature and fluxes along with the involvement of meridional and vertical entropy production terms in the maximization making it applicable to each subsystem.

The article discusses a study on spectral solar irradiance and its entropic impact on climate in Earth. It mentions that the Sun has a substantial variation of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) at the top of the Earth's atmosphere (TOA). It also notes the application of the spectral irradiance measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite for estimating the incident solar radiation entropy influx of the planet.

The article presents three climate models to analyze the magnitude and timescales of surface temperature feedbacks since feedbacks play a significant role in determining the characteristics of climate. It states that a linear systems approach was used to split feedback with their time constants and corresponding feedback amplitudes. It indicates the need to measure decadal and centennial feedback processes to realize climate model projections' range.

The article discusses a study on response of energy to warm climate. It mentions the application of the Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) for the assessment of changes in global energetic activity which is measured as the total conversion rate of potential energy into kinetic energy and decreases by 4%. It offers analysis on the contributions of transient and stationary eddy components to the response. An overview of its dual response to carbon dioxide is also presented.

The article explores climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. It discusses climate sensitivity which depends on climate feedbacks' sign and strength. It defines climate feedback which is induced by a climate forcing. It also discusses related topics including Earth's energy balance, feedback sensitivity, and carbon cycle feedbacks.

In this paper we present and evaluate the skill of the EC-Earth3.3 decadal prediction system contributing to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project - Component A (DCPP-A). This prediction system is capable of skilfully simulating past global mean surface temperature variations at interannual and decadal forecast times as well as the local surface temperature in regions such as the Tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and most of the continental areas, although most of the skill comes from the representation of the externally forced trends. A benefit of initialisation in the predictive skill is evident in some areas of the Tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans in the first forecast years, an added value that gets mostly confined to the south-east Tropical Pacific and the eastern Subpolar North Atlantic at the longest forecast times (6–10 years). The central Subpolar North Atlantic shows poor predictive skill and a detrimental effect of the initialisation due to the occurrence of an initialisation shock, itself related to a collapse in Labrador Sea convection by the third forecast year that leads to a rapid weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and excessive local sea ice growth. The shutdown in Labrador Sea convection responds to a gradual increase in the local density stratification in the first years of the forecast, ultimately related to the different paces at which surface and subsurface temperature and salinity drift towards their preferred mean state. This transition happens rapidly in the surface and more slowly in the subsurface, where, by the tenth forecast year, the model is still far from the typical mean states in the corresponding ensemble of historical simulations with EC-Earth3. Our study thus highlights the importance of the Labrador Sea for initialisation, the relevance of reducing model bias by model tuning or, preferably, model improvement when using full-field initialisation, and the need to identify optimal initialisation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel data set of regional climate model simulations over Europe that significantly improves our ability to detect changes in weather extremes under low and moderate levels of global warming. The data set provides a unique and physically consistent data set, as it is derived from a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. These simulations were driven by two global climate models from the international HAPPI consortium. The set consists of 100 × 10-year simulations and 25 × 10-year simulations, respectively. These large ensembles allow for regional climate change and weather extremes to be investigated with an improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to previous climate simulations. The changes in four climate indices for temperature targets of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming are quantified: number of days per year with daily mean near-surface apparent temperature of > 28 °C (ATG28); the yearly maximum 5-day sum of precipitation (RX5day); the daily precipitation intensity of the 50-yr return period (RI50yr); and the annual Consecutive Dry Days (CDD). This work shows that even for a small signal in projected global mean temperature, changes of extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated. For temperature related indices changes in percentiles can also be estimated with high confidence. Such data can form the basis for tailor-made climate information that can aid adaptive measures at a policy-relevant scales, indicating potential impacts at low levels of global warming at steps of 0.5 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The science of climate security and conflict is replete with controversies. Yet the increasing vulnerability of politically fragile countries to the security consequences of climate change is widely acknowledged. Although climate conflict reflects a continuum of conditional forces that coalesce around the notion of vulnerability, how different portrayals of vulnerability influence the discursive formation of climate conflict relations remains an exceptional but under-researched issue. This paper combines a systematic discourse analysis with a vulnerability interpretation diagnostic tool to explore (i) how discourses of climate conflict are constructed and represented, (ii) how vulnerability is communicated across discourse lines, and (iii) the strength of contextual vulnerability against a deterministic narrative of scarcity-induced conflict, such as that pertaining to land. Systematically characterising climate conflict discourses based on the central issues constructed, assumptions about mechanistic relationships, implicit normative judgements and vulnerability portrayals, provides a useful way of understanding where discourses differ. While discourses show a wide range of opinions “for” and “against” climate conflict relations, engagement with vulnerability has been less pronounced – except for the dominant context centrism discourse concerned about human security (particularly in Africa). In exploring this discourse, we observe an increasing sense of contextual vulnerability that is oriented towards a concern for complexity rather than predictability. The article concludes by illustrating that a turn towards contextual vulnerability thinking will help advance a constructivist theory-informed climate conflict scholarship that recognises historicity, specificity, and variability as crucial elements of contextual totalities of any area affected by climate conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]