2,300 results
Search Results
2. A methodological critique on using temperature-conditioned resampling for climate projections as in the paper of Gerstengarbe et al. (2013) winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events in Theoretical and Applied Climatology (TAC)
- Author
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Maximilian Wechsung and Frank Wechsung
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,Global warming ,Winter storm ,02 engineering and technology ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,020801 environmental engineering ,Stars ,Resampling ,Climatology ,Thunderstorm ,Spatial ecology ,Environmental science ,Precipitation ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Downscaling - Abstract
The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale.
- Published
- 2015
3. A methodological critique on using temperature-conditioned resampling for climate projections as in the paper of Gerstengarbe et al. (2013) winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events in Theoretical and Applied Climatology (TAC).
- Author
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Wechsung, Frank and Wechsung, Maximilian
- Subjects
- *
CLIMATOLOGY , *GLOBAL warming , *TEMPERATURE , *WINTER , *GENERAL circulation model - Abstract
The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. The Carbon Footprint of Conference Papers
- Author
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Diomidis Spinellis and Panos Louridas
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Natural resource economics ,Science Policy ,Economics ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Climate Change ,Science ,Climate change ,lcsh:Medicine ,Social and Behavioral Sciences ,Science education ,Science Policy and Economics ,Geoinformatics ,Medicine ,Environmental Systems Modeling ,lcsh:Science ,Biology ,media_common ,Carbon Footprint ,Climatology ,Travel ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,business.industry ,Global warming ,lcsh:R ,Bioethics ,Carbon Dioxide ,Congresses as Topic ,Quarter (United States coin) ,Bibliometrics ,Computer Science ,Carbon footprint ,Earth Sciences ,Workforce ,TRIPS architecture ,Science policy ,lcsh:Q ,Environmental Economics ,business ,Environmental Protection ,Environmental Sciences ,Reputation ,Research Article ,Climate Modeling - Abstract
The action required to stem the environmental and social implications of climate change depends crucially on how humankind shapes technology, economy, lifestyle and policy. With transport CO2 emissions accounting for about a quarter of the total, we examine the contribution of CO2 output by scientific travel. Thankfully for the reputation of the scientific community, CO2 emissions associated with the trips required to present a paper at a scientific conference account for just 0.003% of the yearly total. However, with CO2 emissions for a single conference trip amounting to 7% of an average individual’s total CO2 emissions, scientists should lead by example by demonstrating leadership in addressing the issue.
- Published
- 2013
5. Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics.
- Author
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Haunschild, Robin, Bornmann, Lutz, and Marx, Werner
- Subjects
CLIMATE change research ,BIBLIOMETRICS ,CITATION analysis ,BIOMASS ,GLOBAL warming - Abstract
This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5–6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top—the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
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6. TECHNICAL NOTE. FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE: A WORKING PAPER
- Author
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M G Barrett
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Climatology ,Global warming ,Greenhouse ,Environmental science ,Technical note ,General Medicine ,Future sea level ,Greenhouse effect - Published
- 1991
7. Defining and assessing the risk of being harmed by climate change
- Author
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Pascal Briguglio, Lino
- Published
- 2010
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8. PAPERS OF NOTE.
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STRATOSPHERE , *METEOROLOGICAL research , *FORCING (Model theory) , *GLOBAL warming , *ASTRONOMICAL observations , *PLANETARY observations , *CLIMATOLOGY , *OZONE layer - Abstract
The article presents a study which examines the effect of synoptic-scale forcing on the stratospheric sudden warnings (SSWs) in 2006 in the U.S. The researchers used the meteorological fields from Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-4 analyses in determining such effects. The study found out that stratospheric polar displaced off the pole due to earlier minor warming events. The researchers also suggest that there is a need for further investigation to determine the kind of fraction of major SSWs are initiated.
- Published
- 2009
9. Climate change: an emergency management perspective
- Author
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Schneider, Robert O.
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
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10. The one degree war plan
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Randers, Jorgen and Gilding, Paul
- Published
- 2010
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11. Factors influencing the disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions in companies world‐wide
- Author
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Prado‐Lorenzo, José‐Manuel, Rodríguez‐Domínguez, Luis, Gallego‐Álvarez, Isabel, García‐Sánchez, Isabel‐María, Dwyer, Rocky, and Lamond, David
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. Valuing climate change impacts on Sydney beaches to inform coastal management decisions : A research outline
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Anning, David, Dominey‐Howes, Dale, Withycombe, Geoff, Amen, Mark, and Harris, Rebecca
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- 2009
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13. Communicating climate change: challenges ahead and action needed
- Author
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Leal Filho, Walter
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- 2009
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14. Lifetime‐leveraging : An approach to achieving international agreement and effective climate protection using mitigation of short‐lived greenhouse gases
- Author
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Moore, Frances C. and MacCracken, Michael C.
- Published
- 2009
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15. UK emergency preparedness: a holistic response?
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O'Brien, Geoff
- Published
- 2008
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16. A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change.
- Author
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Yan, P. C., Feng, G. L., and Hou, W.
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ATMOSPHERIC models ,ABRUPT climate change ,LOGISTIC model (Demography) ,MATHEMATICAL models ,CLIMATE change ,GLOBAL warming ,CLIMATOLOGY - Abstract
A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was presented. By using the mathematical model based on the Logistic model, the process of the abrupt change could be analyzed and divided into different phases which include start moment, end moment, stable state, and unstable transition state. Meanwhile, the method was confirmed to be effective by testing in a study of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time sequence, and the results of this study specify that this abrupt change process of PDO has a relationship with global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
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17. Learning from mistakes in climate research.
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Benestad, Rasmus, Nuccitelli, Dana, Lewandowsky, Stephan, Hayhoe, Katharine, Hygen, Hans, Dorland, Rob, and Cook, John
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ANTHROPOGENIC effects on nature ,GLOBAL warming ,CLIMATOLOGY ,CONTEXTUAL analysis ,GEOPHYSICAL surveys - Abstract
Among papers stating a position on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), 97 % endorse AGW. What is happening with the 2 % of papers that reject AGW? We examine a selection of papers rejecting AGW. An analytical tool has been developed to replicate and test the results and methods used in these studies; our replication reveals a number of methodological flaws, and a pattern of common mistakes emerges that is not visible when looking at single isolated cases. Thus, real-life scientific disputes in some cases can be resolved, and we can learn from mistakes. A common denominator seems to be missing contextual information or ignoring information that does not fit the conclusions, be it other relevant work or related geophysical data. In many cases, shortcomings are due to insufficient model evaluation, leading to results that are not universally valid but rather are an artifact of a particular experimental setup. Other typical weaknesses include false dichotomies, inappropriate statistical methods, or basing conclusions on misconceived or incomplete physics. We also argue that science is never settled and that both mainstream and contrarian papers must be subject to sustained scrutiny. The merit of replication is highlighted and we discuss how the quality of the scientific literature may benefit from replication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
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18. Assessing impact of global change on flood regimes
- Author
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Radojevic, Biljana D., Breil, Pascal, and Chocat, B.
- Published
- 2010
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19. Assessing local land use planning's awareness, analysis, and actions for climate change
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Tang, Zhenghong, Hussey, Christopher M., and Wei, Ting
- Published
- 2009
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20. Framing climate change solutions: get the numbers right
- Author
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Manning, Christie M., Amel, Elise L., Scott, Britain A., and Forsman, Jacob
- Published
- 2009
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21. Climates of the Arabian Peninsula – past, present, future
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Kotwicki, Vincent and Al Sulaimani, Zaher
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- 2009
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22. The Arctic Rivers Project: Using an Equitable Co‐Production Framework for Integrating Meaningful Community Engagement and Science to Understand Climate Impacts.
- Author
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Herman‐Mercer, Nicole, Andre, Alestine, Buschman, Victoria, Blaskey, Dylan, Brooks, Cassandra, Cheng, Yifan, Combs, Evelynn, Cozzetto, Karen, Fitka, Serena, Koch, Joshua, Lawlor, Aine, Moses, Elizabeth, Murray, Emily, Mutter, Edda, Newman, Andrew J., Prince, Charles, Salmon, Patricia, Tlen, Jenessa, Toohey, Ryan, and Williams, Michael
- Subjects
CLIMATOLOGY ,ARCTIC climate ,GLOBAL warming ,ADVISORY boards ,COMMUNITY involvement ,TRADITIONAL knowledge ,CLIMATE change ,CLASSIFICATION of fish - Abstract
As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community‐engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project‐specific knowledge co‐production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co‐produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic and rivers located in the Arctic and subarctic are warming due to climate change. To understand the impacts this warming will have on people, partnering with impacted Indigenous communities in the region is important. It is also important that these partnerships are ethical and equitable and produce science that is actionable. This paper discusses efforts undertaken by a specific project, the Arctic Rivers Project, to conduct ethical and equitable research with Indigenous communities and generate science that is useful to those communities. Through this research our goal is to better understand potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities in central northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada. To achieve this goal, the project formed an Indigenous Advisory Council (IAC) and together developed guidelines for how we can work collaboratively with Indigenous communities. Our specific process of forming an IAC and guidelines is, to our knowledge, a new way to approach collaborative research when working across a large geographic area. We present our process here so that it may provide an example for other research efforts. Key Points: Arctic climate information can be made useful, useable, and used by equitably accounting for diverse community adaptation needs through knowledge co‐productionInstitutional and community capacity, including means and ability, is necessary for equitable knowledge co‐production to occurWe present an approach for co‐producing knowledge with Indigenous communities that can serve as an example for other scientific efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
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23. SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS ON CLIMATE CHANGE?
- Author
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Schulte, Klaus-Martin
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CLIMATE change ,GLOBAL warming ,GREENHOUSE effect ,GLOBAL temperature changes ,EFFECT of human beings on weather ,AIR pollution ,ATMOSPHERIC temperature ,ATMOSPHERIC deposition ,CLIMATOLOGY - Abstract
Fear of anthropogenic "global warming" can adversely affect patients' well-being. Accordingly, the state of the scientific consensus about climate change was studied by a review of the 539 papers on "global climate change" found on the Web of Science database from January 2004 to mid-February 2007, updating research by Oreskes, who had reported that between 1993 and 2003 none of 928 scientific papers on "global climate change" had rejected the consensus that more than half of the warming of the past 50 years was likely to have been anthropogenic. In the present review, 31 papers (6% of the sample) explicitly or implicitly reject the consensus. Though Oreskes said that 75% of the papers in her former sample endorsed the consensus, fewer than half now endorse it. Only 7% do so explicitly. Only one paper refers to "catastrophic" climate change, but without offering evidence. There appears to be little evidence in the learned journals to justify the climate-change alarm that now harms patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2008
- Full Text
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24. Coastal adaptation and economic tipping points
- Author
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Franck, Travis, Amen, Mark, and Harris, Rebecca
- Published
- 2009
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25. The past protecting the future : Locating climatically stable forests in West and Central Africa
- Author
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Leal, Miguel E.
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
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26. Arkansas Students Collect 6 Tons of Paper, Encourage Recycling.
- Author
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Bratton, Joanne
- Subjects
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WASTE recycling , *PAPER , *SANITARY landfills , *HIGH school students , *GLOBAL warming , *CLIMATOLOGY - Abstract
The article reports on Flippin High School students who saved 100 trees by collecting six tons of paper as part of their school's month-long recycling campaign that aims to keep the community beautiful and eliminate landfill waste. It was also participated by Wal-Mart that donated indoor recycling containers for plastic bottles. The recycling program is also an advocacy to educate humans regarding their impact on global warming and how the climate is changing.
- Published
- 2008
27. 16 Pay your bills online.
- Author
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Buechner, Maryanne Murray
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GLOBAL warming ,CLIMATOLOGY ,ELECTRONIC billing ,PAPER & the environment ,INTERNET security - Abstract
This article urges readers to pay bills online as a way to combat global warming. Electronic statements reduce paper consumption and the fuel consumption needed to transport paper checks. Statistics are presented about paper usage and emissions on the United States, and a discussion is presented about online security.
- Published
- 2007
28. Expert credibility in climate change
- Author
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Anderegg, William R. L., Prall, James W., Harold, Jacob, and Schneider, Stephen H.
- Published
- 2010
29. Systematic attribution of observed southern hemispheric circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability.
- Author
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Franzke, C. L. E., O'Kane, T. J., Monselesan, D. P., Risbey, J. S., and Horenko, I.
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GLOBAL warming ,CLIMATOLOGY ,ATMOSPHERIC circulation ,ATMOSPHERIC physics - Abstract
A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circula-tion regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemispheric wave 3 pattern which is associated with blocking. Previous studies into the causes of these secular trends have either been purely model based, have not included observational forcing data or have mixed external forcing with indices of internal climate variability impeding a systematic and unbiased attribution of the causes of the secular trends. Most model studies also focused mainly on the austral summer season. However, the changes to the storm tracks have occurred in all seasons and particularly in the austral winter and early spring when mid-latitude blocking is most active and stratospheric ozone should not a play a role. Here we systematically attribute the secular trends over the recent decades using a non-stationary clustering method applied to both reanalysis and observational forcing data from all seasons. While most previous studies emphasized the importance of stratospheric ozone depletion in causing austral summer SH circulation trends, we show observational evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations have been the major driver of these secular trends in the SAM and blocking when all seasons are considered. Our results suggest that the recovery of the ozone hole might delay the signal of global warming less strongly than previously thought and that effects from all seasons are likely crucial in understanding the causes of the secular trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Changes in climatic patterns and tourism and their concomitant effect on drinking water transfers into the region of South Aegean, Greece
- Author
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Dimitrios Myronidis and Theofanous Nikolaos
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Environmental Engineering ,Index (economics) ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Eastern Mediterranean ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,02 engineering and technology ,RDIst index ,01 natural sciences ,Precipitation indices ,Aridity index ,Water transfers ,Environmental Chemistry ,Precipitation ,Temperature indices ,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science ,Water Science and Technology ,Climate pattern ,Original Paper ,Diurnal temperature variation ,Global warming ,Mann–Kendall test ,SPI index ,Arid ,020801 environmental engineering ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,RClimDex ,Tourism - Abstract
Global warming is already having a negative impact on vital sectors on which human development depends, such as water resource availability. In this study, the changes and abrupt change timing of climatic extreme indices, aridity and drought over the Region of South Aegean are captured using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, while the latter variables are correlated with the water volume transported by ships to the region as well as the relevant costs. The region's climate is shifting to warmer conditions with less precipitation, since significantly positive trends were noted with regard to the number of tropical nights, warm nights, warm days, the warm spell duration index and the diurnal temperature range; significant negative trends were observed in relation to the number of cool nights, cool days and the cold spell duration index, with the change-point year for the latter variables being 2006. Inaddition, 7/11 precipitation related indices exhibited a downward trend, while significantly negative trends were observed with regard to the number of consecutive dry days, with the timing of the abrupt change being 2001. The Aridity Index (AI) reveals that the region's climate characterization is changing from dry and sub-humid to semi-arid conditions, whilst the Reconnaissance Drought Index standardized (RDIst) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indices suggests an amplification of drought phenomena over the Region. The tourism variables illustrated a significant positive trend, with the timing of the abrupt change being registered during 2006-2009, whilst the correlation analysis between tourism variables and water transfers implies that the surge on water transfer by ships to the Region occurred between 1998 and 2008. This can be mainly attributed to the changes in climate patterns. The correlation analysis documents a strong positive correlation between the water transfer dataset and the diurnal temperature range, and a moderately negative association with the precipitation related indices, annual precipitation, drought phenomena and aridity with 7/11.
- Published
- 2021
31. An advanced empirical model for quantifying the impact of heat and climate change on human physical work capacity
- Author
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Lars Nybo, James W. Smallcombe, Andreas D. Flouris, Ollie Jay, Josh Foster, Simon Hodder, and George Havenith
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Atmospheric Science ,Hot Temperature ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Climate Change ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,Wet-bulb globe temperature ,Climate change ,Heat Stress Disorders ,01 natural sciences ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Occupational Exposure ,Humans ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Original Paper ,Heat index ,Ecology ,Global warming ,Thermal comfort ,Humidity ,030229 sport sciences ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Environmental science - Abstract
Occupational heat stress directly hampers physical work capacity (PWC), with large economic consequences for industries and regions vulnerable to global warming. Accurately quantifying PWC is essential for forecasting impacts of different climate change scenarios, but the current state of knowledge is limited, leading to potential underestimations in mild heat, and overestimations in extreme heat. We therefore developed advanced empirical equations for PWC based on 338 work sessions in climatic chambers (low air movement, no solar radiation) spanning mild to extreme heat stress. Equations for PWC are available based on air temperature and humidity, for a suite of heat stress assessment metrics, and mean skin temperature. Our models are highly sensitive to mild heat and to our knowledge are the first to include empirical data across the full range of warm and hot environments possible with future climate change across the world. Using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as an example, we noted 10% reductions in PWC at mild heat stress (WBGT = 18°C) and reductions of 78% in the most extreme conditions (WBGT = 40°C). Of the different heat stress indices available, the heat index was the best predictor of group level PWC (R2= 0.96) but can only be applied in shaded conditions. The skin temperature, but not internal/core temperature, was a strong predictor of PWC (R2= 0.88), thermal sensation (R2= 0.84), and thermal comfort (R2= 0.73). The models presented apply to occupational workloads and can be used in climate projection models to predict economic and social consequences of climate change.
- Published
- 2021
32. Pedagogy of the implicated: advancing a social ecology of responsibility framework to promote deeper understanding of the climate crisis.
- Author
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Bryan, Audrey
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SOCIAL ecology ,CLIMATE change ,SOLIDARITY ,GLOBAL warming ,CLIMATOLOGY - Abstract
This paper draws on Deborah Britzman's conceptualisation of 'difficult knowledge' and Michael Rothberg's figure of 'the implicated subject' to advance a Social Ecology of Responsibility Framework (SERF) in relation to the climate crisis.This framework demonstrates the impossibility of disarticulating individual, private actions that contribute to the ecological crisis from state-corporate climate-related harms. While not discounting differences of scale between individual actions and state-corporate crimes, the article highlights difficulties with binaristic approaches to climate responsibility which privilege either personal actions or macro-level norms, practices and ideologies. Foregrounding self-implication, the model serves as a basis for establishing transnational and transgenerational solidarity with human and other-than-human lifeforms who inhabit the Earth. The paper concludes with some examples of visual images and accompanying activities that can be used to prompt critical reflection on one's own positioning as an implicated subject and as a change agent who can contribute to the amelioration of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan.
- Author
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Yara, Y., Vogt, M., Fujii, M., Yamano, H., Hauri, C., Steinacher, M., Gruber, N., and Yamanaka, Y.
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OCEAN acidification ,TEMPERATURE effect ,HABITATS ,CARBON cycle ,CLIMATOLOGY ,GLOBAL warming ,ARAGONITE - Abstract
Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the combined effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of the coral habitats are identified primarily on the basis of the currently observed ranges for temperature and saturation states Ω with regard to aragonite (Ω
arag ). We find that under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats will expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between the tropical regions, where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and the temperate-to-subpolar latitudes, where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the area of coral habitats around Japan that is suitable to tropical-subtropical communities will be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The suitable habitats for the temperate coral communities are also becoming smaller, although at a less pronounced rate due to their higher tolerance for low Ωarag . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. Climate change papers.
- Subjects
CLIMATE change research ,CLIMATOLOGY ,CARBON dioxide ,GLOBAL warming ,GLOBAL temperature changes - Abstract
The article presents several research on climate change. A research led by S. P. Long reveals that the rising carbon dioxide will fully offset yield losses due to future warmer, drier conditions. In a study conducted by K. E. Trenberth and D. J. Shea, they concluded that the global warming influence provides a background level that increases the risk of future enhanced activity. "The Handbook of Climate Trends Across Scotland," assesses the changes in Scottish climate over the last 40 years.
- Published
- 2006
35. A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments
- Author
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Vanderkelen, Inne, Zschleischler, Jakob, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Keuler, Klaus, Rineau, Francois, Beenaerts, Natalie, Vangronsveld, Jaco, Vicca, Sara, Thiery, Wim, Zscheischler, Jakob, Gudniundsson, Lukas, Thiery, Wim/0000-0002-5183-6145, Vicca, Sara/0000-0001-9812-5837, Beenaerts, Natalie/0000-0001-5655-5943, Vanderkelen, Inne/0000-0002-8673-1933, Zscheischler, Jakob/0000-0001-6045-1629, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, and Faculty of Engineering
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Regional climate model ,Climate forcing ,Controlled environment experiment ,Global warming ,Ecosystem response ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Physiology ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,MANIPULATION ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ,TEMPERATURE ,Ecology ,Physics ,Temperature ,Chemistry ,Climatology ,PRECIPITATION ,Physical Sciences ,EURO-CORDEX ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Downscaling ,530 Physics ,Climate Change ,Biophysics ,Climate change ,ENSEMBLE ,Environmental Sciences & Ecology ,HEAT ,Representativeness heuristic ,Weather station ,Ecosystem ,FACILITY ,Weather ,Biology ,METAANALYSIS ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Original Paper ,Science & Technology ,Correction ,Radiative forcing ,Models, Theoretical ,020801 environmental engineering ,CO2 EMISSIONS ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Human medicine ,Environmental Sciences ,RESPONSES - Abstract
Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change., International Journal of Biometeorology, 64, ISSN:0020-7128, ISSN:1432-1254
- Published
- 2020
36. Phosphorus status of soils from contrasting forested ecosystems in Southwestern Siberia: combined effects of plant species and climate.
- Author
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Achat, D. L., Bakker, M. R., Augusto, L., Derrien, D., Gallegos, N., Lashchinskiy, N., Milin, S., Nikitich, P., Raudina, T., Rusalimova, O., Zeller, B., and Barsukov, P.
- Subjects
FOREST ecology ,PHOSPHORUS ,PLANT species ,CLIMATOLOGY ,GLOBAL warming ,BIOTIC communities - Abstract
The Russian boreal forest, which mainly consists of extensive forests in Siberia, is the largest continuous forest region on Earth and represents 70 % of the world's boreal forest. Siberian forest is a tremendous repository of terrestrial organic carbon (C), which may increase owing to climate change, potential increases in ecosystem productivity and hence C sequestration. Phosphorus (P) availability could limit the C sequestration potential, but tree roots may mine the soil deeper to increase access to mineral P. Improved understanding and quantification of the processes controlling P availability in surface and deep soil layers of forest ecosystems are thus required. Relative contributions of organic and inorganic P and, consequently, P availability in forest ecosystems depend on decomposition processes, which could be strongly affected by vegetation composition, temperature, precipitation, and their changes due to a warming climate. The objectives of the present study were to (1) evaluate P status of surface and deep forest soil horizons from two contrasted biomes in Southwestern Siberia (i.e. forest steppe in the West Siberian plain and blackish ("chernevaya" in Russian) taiga in the low Salair mountains) and (2) assess the effects of vegetation (siberian fir stand, common aspen stand and herbs in a forest gap) and local climate on soil P fractions. Results revealed high contents in total P (645-1042 mgkg"1 in the surface mineral soils) and available inorganic P (diffusive phosphate ions in one week = 83-126 mgkg"1). In addition, there was an accumulation of diffusive phosphate ions in the subsoils resulting from differences between soil horizons in total inorganic P and soil properties. Consequently, deeper root systems may mine substantial amounts of available P for the trees and the potential enhanced growth and C sequestration due to climate change should thus a priori not be P-limited. High proportions of total organic P (47-56% of total P in the surface mineral soils) show that decomposition processes potentially play a significant role in P availability. Results show that decomposition processes are affected by vegetation (deciduous broadleaved trees, evergreen coniferous, herbs) and local climate (precipitations; snow cover with its isolating effect on soil). Results on the effects of plant species and local climate improved our understanding of the potential effects of climate change on P availability through warming and vegetation redistribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Review: advances in in situ and satellite phenological observations in Japan
- Author
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Shin Nagai, Tomoharu Inoue, Rikie Suzuki, Kenlo Nishida Nasahara, and Taku M. Saitoh
- Subjects
Satellite Imagery ,0106 biological sciences ,Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,Plant Development ,Global Warming ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Phenological observation network ,Trees ,Japan ,Evapotranspiration ,Photography ,medicine ,Satellite imagery ,Ecosystem ,Radiometry ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Remote sensing ,Review Paper ,Ecology ,Phenology ,Global warming ,Vegetation ,Seasonality ,medicine.disease ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,Satellite ,Seasons ,Biometeorology - Abstract
To accurately evaluate the responses of spatial and temporal variation of ecosystem functioning (evapotranspiration and photosynthesis) and services (regulating and cultural services) to the rapid changes caused by global warming, we depend on long-term, continuous, near-surface, and satellite remote sensing of phenology over wide areas. Here, we review such phenological studies in Japan and discuss our current knowledge, problems, and future developments. In contrast with North America and Europe, Japan has been able to evaluate plant phenology along vertical and horizontal gradients within a narrow area because of the country’s high topographic relief. Phenological observation networks that support scientific studies and outreach activities have used near-surface tools such as digital cameras and spectral radiometers. Differences in phenology among ecosystems and tree species have been detected by analyzing the seasonal variation of red, green, and blue digital numbers (RGB values) extracted from phenological images, as well as spectral reflectance and vegetation indices. The relationships between seasonal variations in RGB-derived indices or spectral characteristics and the ecological and CO2 flux measurement data have been well validated. In contrast, insufficient satellite remote-sensing observations have been conducted because of the coarse spatial resolution of previous datasets, which could not detect the heterogeneous plant phenology that results from Japan’s complex topography and vegetation. To improve Japanese phenological observations, multidisciplinary analysis and evaluation will be needed to link traditional phenological observations with “index trees,” near-surface and satellite remote-sensing observations, “citizen science” (observations by citizens), and results published on the Internet.
- Published
- 2015
38. Synoptic relationships quantified between surface Chlorophyll-a and diagnostic pigments specific to phytoplankton functional types.
- Author
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Hirata, T., Hardman-Mountford, N. J., Brewin, R. J. W., Aiken, J., Barlow, R., Suzuki, K., Isada, T., Howell, E., Hashioka, T., Noguchi-Aita, M., and Yamanaka, Y.
- Subjects
CHLOROPHYLL ,PHYTOPLANKTON ,PLANT pigments ,CLIMATOLOGY ,MARINE ecology ,COMMUNITY organization ,GLOBAL warming ,OCEAN temperature - Abstract
Error-quantified, synoptic-scale relationships between chlorophyll-a (Chla) and phytoplankton pigment groups at the sea surface are presented. A total of nine pigment groups were considered to represent nine phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) including microplankton, nanoplankton, picoplankton, diatoms, dinoflagellates, green algae, picoeukaryotes, prokaryotes and Prochlorococcus sp. The observed relationships between Chla and pigment groups were well-defined at the global scale to show that Chla can be used as an index of not only phytoplankton abundance but also community structure; large (micro) phytoplankton monotonically increase as Chla increases, whereas the small (pico) phytoplankton community generally decreases. Within these relationships, we also found non-monotonic variations with Chla for certain pico-plankton (picoeukaryotes, Prokaryotes and Prochlorococcus sp.) and for Green Algae and nano-sized phytoplankton. The relationships were quantified with a least-square fitting approach in order to estimate the PFTs from Chla alone. The esti15 mated uncertainty of the relationships quantified depends on both phytoplankton types and Chla concentration. Maximum uncertainty over all groups (34.7% Chla) was found from diatom at approximately Chla=1.07mgm-
3 . However, the mean uncertainty of the relationships over all groups was 5.8 [% Chla] over the entire Chla range observed (0.023). The relationships were applied to SeaWiFS satellite Chla data from 1998 to 2009 to show the global climatological fields of the surface distribution of PFTs. Results show that microplankton are present in the mid and high latitudes, constituting ∼ 9.0 [% Chla] of the phytoplankton community at the global surface, in which diatoms explain ∼ 6.0 [% Chla]. Nanoplankton are ubiquious throught much of the global surface oceans except subtropical gyres, acting as a background population, constituting ∼ 44.2 [% Chla]. Picoplankton are mostly limited in subtropical gyres, constituting ∼ 46.8 [% Chla] globally, in which prokaryotes are the major species explaining 32.3 [% Chla] (prochlorococcus sp. explaining 21.5 [% Chla]), while pico-eukaryotes are notably abundant in the Southern Pacific explaining ∼ 14.5 [% Chla]. These results may be used to constrain or validate global marine ecosystem models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] - Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. Extreme climatic events to intensify over the Lake Victoria Basin under global warming.
- Author
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Ogega, Obed M., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Misiani, Herbert, and Mbugua, James
- Subjects
WATERSHEDS ,GLOBAL warming ,CLIMATOLOGY ,WATER supply ,CLIMATE extremes ,SEASONS - Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa, using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal [March–May (MAM), June–August (JJA), and October–December (OND)] precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040–2069). The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070–2099) with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected, relative to the 1985–2014 baseline period. Additionally, the mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation events—represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p–90p)—show an increase of 16%, 29%, and 47%, respectively, by the end of the century. The projected changes have a substantial implication for the region—which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. The science of climate change and the effect of anaesthetic gas emissions.
- Author
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Slingo, J. M. and Slingo, M. E.
- Subjects
- *
CLIMATOLOGY , *CLIMATE change , *CARBON emissions , *ANESTHETICS , *GLOBAL warming - Abstract
Summary: The dedication of the international anaesthetic community to reducing the environmental impact of healthcare is important and to be celebrated. When this is underpinned by robust science, it has the potential to make a real difference. However, volatile anaesthetic agents have been widely promoted in the medical literature as damaging to the climate, leading to a drive to remove them from clinical practice. This is based on notional 'CO2‐equivalent' values created using the simple emission metric known as the global warming potential. Here, we assert that when proper consideration is given to the science of climate change, volatile anaesthetic gas emissions cannot be simply equated to real carbon dioxide emissions, and that their climate impact is vanishingly small. This paper gives anaesthetists a framework to make informed choices founded on climate science and calls for attention to be refocused on the urgent need to reduce the real carbon dioxide emissions associated with healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
- Author
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Bangyou Zheng, Troy M. Frederiks, Karine Chenu, Scott Chapman, and Jack Christopher
- Subjects
Genotype ,post-head-emergence frost ,Physiology ,Yield (finance) ,Climate change ,Plant Science ,Breeding ,Crop ,wheat ,Freezing ,Computer Simulation ,Cultivar ,Triticum ,General Environmental Science ,Ecotype ,Geography ,Crop yield ,Global warming ,Australia ,Sowing ,spring radiant frost ,Ideotype ,Adaptation, Physiological ,eye diseases ,ideotype ,climate change ,Agronomy ,reproductive frost ,Climatology ,post-head emergence frost ,Frost ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,Frost (temperature) ,Spatial variability ,Seasons ,crop adaptation ,crop modelling ,South eastern ,Research Paper - Abstract
Highlight Over the last decades, the impact of post-heading frost on yield has increased in major parts of the Australian wheatbelt. Despite global warming, frost remains a high priority for breeding., Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (~10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.
- Published
- 2015
42. Notice of Retraction: Climate change impact on snowcoverage in mountain region
- Author
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Xin Wan, Cunjie Zhang, Lan-ying Han, Tao Han, and Pengli Ma
- Subjects
Climatology ,Area change ,Global warming ,Snow line ,Climate change ,Environmental science ,Paper based ,Snow ,Arid - Abstract
Snow dynamic change is the hot issue of global climate change. Qilian Mountain located in the southern of Hexi Corridor, and is the sensitive and key area of climatic change in arid regions. Its snow's dynamic distribution has the important meaning to climatic change's influence and the response. Under the background of the climate warming, snow area of the Qilian Mountains has changed. This paper based on EOS/MODIS, NOAA data, climate data and snow area data, which were distilled by the linear and commixtured spectrum model. Spatial-temporal distribution of the Qilian Mountain snow, climate change and its response were monitored and analyzed. Results indicated that the total snow area of Qilian Mountain is waveform changes between 1997 and 2006, and has a linear increasing trend, but in the eastern and middle area of the Qilian Mountains, snow area has a reducing trend. Comparing climatic change and snow area change, we can found that the snow area of the eastern was consistent with the local climatic conditions, therefore, the eastern snow of the Qilian Mountains were mostly influenced by local climatic conditions.
- Published
- 2010
43. Predictability past, predictability present
- Author
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Leonard A. Smith
- Subjects
Geography ,Graduate students ,Ensemble systems ,business.industry ,Climatology ,Global warming ,Environmental resource management ,Weather and climate ,Predictability ,business ,Chaos theory ,Unpublished paper - Abstract
The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.
- Published
- 2006
44. Defining and assessing the risk of being harmed by climate change.
- Author
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Briguglio, Lino Pascal
- Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the risk of a population in a given territory being harmed by climate change by distinguishing between: natural factors, which are associated with inherent vulnerability; and man-made or policy-induced factors, which are associated with adaptation. It is argued that this distinction is useful as a methodological approach and for policy making. Design/methodology/approach – The approach utilises indices of vulnerability and adaptation, and juxtaposes them to arrive at an assessment of risk. Findings – The major findings of this paper are that the "lowest-risk" or "managed-risk" category of territories are mostly port cities in high-income countries, whereas the "mismanaged-risk" and "highest-risk" category of territories are vulnerable port cities located in low-income countries. Originality/value – The originality of the paper is that it highlights the distinction between natural and man-made risks in arriving at a total assessment of risk – a distinction of utmost importance for policy making. An important, although obvious, conclusion is that adaptation does not reduce the inherent vulnerability of the territories concerned, but it serves to enable humans to withstand, bounce back from or absorb the effects of vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. Filtering perceptions of climate change and biotechnology: values and views among Colorado farmers and ranchers.
- Author
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Carolan, Michael
- Subjects
TRANSGENIC seeds ,CLIMATE change ,CLIMATOLOGY ,PUBLIC understanding of science ,GENETICALLY modified foods ,CLIMATIC zones - Abstract
Though a small fraction of the US citizenry, agricultural producers are directly responsible for the stewardship of almost half of the country's land. This group is therefore an especially important one to understand from the standpoint of how they process and respond to science as it relates to agroecological phenomena. Data from a sample (n = 111) of farmers and ranchers located in the US state of Colorado are used to expand our understanding of how food producers process scientific claims. These insights, I argue, help us think through public understandings of science more generally. Using semi-structured interviews, the paper unpacks an identified asymmetry in how respondents perceive climate science and the science associated with genetically modified food and seed. These tensions are interrogated with the help of a novel methodological design that generated data converted to shading matrices—also known as heat maps. The heat maps illuminate certain cultural values among respondents, which were reinforced by motivated reasoning. This allows for an interrogation of tensions and inconsistencies in respondents' remarks about a variety of scientific claims. The heat maps, coupled with the qualitative data, allow for an exploration into how respondents perceive certain salient socio-technical issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. Teacher perceptions of state standards and climate change pedagogy: opportunities and barriers for implementing consensus-informed instruction on climate change.
- Author
-
Hannah, A. Lee and Rhubart, Danielle Christine
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,HIGH school teachers ,EFFECT of human beings on climate change ,CLIMATOLOGY ,EDUCATIONAL standards - Abstract
The public education system can play a pivotal role in creating an electorate that is well informed of the consensus around climate change and its anthropogenic causes. In particular, more states have education standards that specifically address climate change today than ever before. However, previous research raises concerns about the discretion teachers have in if and how particular types of content are presented. The effectiveness of new state standards and the extent to which such state-level standards are coopted by teacher discretion has received minimal attention. Therefore, using a nationally representative sample of 1500 middle school and high school science teachers, this research examines the effectiveness of such state-level standards and the extent to which teacher ideology and knowledge mediate the relationship between standards and actual use of a consensus-informed approach to teaching climate science. Results show that teachers in states with any type of standards around climate change spend significantly more time on the topic in the classroom. However, teachers in states that have standards that require teachers to present "both sides" of climate change are significantly less likely to use a consensus-informed approach. While teacher characteristics (knowledge and ideology) can weaken their effect, standards continue to be important predictors of the time spent on climate change in the classroom and how content is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of climate science standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. Provenance Representation for the National Climate Assessment in the Global Change Information System.
- Author
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Tilmes, Curt, Fox, Peter, Ma, Xiaogang, McGuinness, Deborah L., Privette, Ana Pinheiro, Smith, Aaron, Waple, Anne, Zednik, Stephan, and Zheng, Jin Guang
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,RESEARCH ,CLIMATOLOGY ,GLOBAL warming ,MULTIMEDIA communications - Abstract
The important topic of global climate change builds on a huge collection of scientific research. It is common for agencies releasing climate change information to be served with requests for all supporting materials resulting in a particular conclusion. Capturing and presenting global change provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observations, satellites, etc., that support the key research findings in this domain can increase understanding and aid in reproducibility of results and conclusions. The U.S. Global Change Research Program is now coordinating the production of a national climate assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a global change information system that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible Web site as well as a machine-readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) PROV data model and ontology for this system. This paper will describe an overview of the process of developing the NCA and how the provenance trail of the report and each of the technical inputs can be captured and represented using the W3C PROV ontology. This will improve the visibility into the assessment process, increase understanding and possibility of reproducibility, and ultimately increase the credibility and trust of the resulting report. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Warm-season mesoscale convective systems over eastern China: convection-permitting climate model simulation and observation.
- Author
-
Yun, Yuxing, Liu, Changhai, Luo, Yali, and Gao, Wenhua
- Subjects
MESOSCALE convective complexes ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,PRECIPITATION gauges ,CLIMATOLOGY ,GLOBAL warming ,TRACKING algorithms - Abstract
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important warm-season precipitation systems in eastern China. However, our knowledge of their climatology and capability in their simulation is still insufficient. This paper examines their characteristics over the 2008–2017 warm seasons using convection-permitting climate simulations (CPCSs) with a 3-km grid spacing that explicitly resolves MCSs, as well as a high-resolution gauge-satellite merged precipitation product. An object-based tracking algorithm is applied to identify MCSs. Results indicate that the MCS genesis and occurrence are closely related to the progression of the East Asian monsoon and are modulated by the underlying topography. On average, about 243 MCSs are observed each season and contribute 19% and 47% to total and extreme warm-season precipitation. The climatological attributes and variabilities are reasonably reproduced in the CPCS. The major model deficiencies are excessive small MCS occurrence and overmuch MCS rainfall, consequently overestimating the precipitation contributions, whereas observational uncertainties may play a role too. Both the observed and simulated MCS precipitation feature a nocturnal or morning maximum and an eastward delayed diurnal peak east of the Tibetan Plateau, in contrast to the dominant afternoon peak of non-MCS precipitation. The favorable comparison with observations demonstrates the capability of CPCSs in simulating MCSs in the Asian monsoon climate, and its usefulness in projecting the future changes of MCSs under global warming. The finding that non-MCS precipitation is responsible for the high biased afternoon precipitation provides helpful guidance for further model improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES IN LIGHT OF THE IPCC SREX (2011) AND BEYOND.
- Author
-
MIKA, JÁNOS
- Subjects
WEATHER ,CLIMATOLOGY ,METEOROLOGY ,NATURAL disasters ,CLIMATE change ,GLOBAL warming - Abstract
The recent IPCC Special Report (IPCC SREX, 2011) provides a comprehensive overview of meteorological (i.e. weather and climate) extremes and their various aspects. The present paper reflects the core concepts of the Report, clarifying the relations of the natural and anthropogenic factors causing meteorological extremes, as well, as condition determining the risks and general ways of response by the society. The paper can only add some recent statistics to this scheme on various aspects of meteorological and non-meteorological reasons of natural disasters. The paper argues, however, the still unclear definition of the extremes and their classification as weather and climate extremes. We also dedicate a sub-Section to the statistical and physical considerations on how the extremes may change parallel to the global warming. Another sub-Section refers to further difficulties that hamper the empirical establishment of the trends in the meteorological extremes. Finally we overview the IPCC AR4 (2007) conclusions on some meteorological extremes, since the detailed Chapters of the IPCC SREX (2011) Report were not available by the time of writing the paper, but from its SPM no difference in the statements and even its uncertainties can be established since the AR4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
50. The 2015 Paris Climate Conference.
- Author
-
Lewiński, Marcin and Mohammed, Dima
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,CLIMATOLOGY ,GLOBAL warming ,RENEWABLE energy sources ,GREENHOUSE gas mitigation - Abstract
The paper applies argumentative discourse analysis to a corpus of official statements made by key players (USA, EU, China, India, etc.) at the opening of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. The chief goal is to reveal the underlying structure of practical arguments and values legitimising the global climate change policy-making. The paper investigates which of the elements of practical arguments were common and which were contested by various players. One important conclusion is that a complex, multilateral deal such as the 2015 Paris Agreement is based on a fragile consensus. This consensus can be precisely described in terms of the key premises of practical arguments that various players share (mostly: description of current circumstances and future goals) and the premises they still discuss but prefer not to prioritise (value hierarchies or precise measures). It thus provides an insight into how a fragile consensus over goals may lead to a multilateral agreement through argumentative processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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