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While the link between religion and politics in the U.S. has been heavily researched, the idea of religion as a voting cue in congressional elections warrants attention. This paper expands on the idea that religion can act as a voting cue signaling voters to cast their ballot for a candidate who shares their religious affiliation. Specifically, this paper answers the question of whether individuals vote for a congressional candidate who shares their religion. Data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) 2008 post-election survey, as well as data on candidate religion from Project Vote Smart's candidate biography dataset and the 2008 Almanac of American Politics, are used to gauge the extent to which religion acts as a voting cue in U.S. House elections. This paper finds that there is indeed a relationship between the major religious group of voters and the major religious group of House candidates. In other words, this paper suggests that there is a link between voter religion and vote choice, which gives insight into both voter behavior and the link between religion and politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of major findings from our book-length manuscript focusing on the demographic, political and legal determinants of voter turnout in the US, 1972-2008. Using data from the American National Election Studies, 1972-2008, and the Current Population Survey, 1972-2008, we estimate the effects of demographic determinants of the vote--similar to Wolfinger and Rosenstone's analysis--but also consider the political and legal contexts and how they affect who votes and therefore the representativeness of the electorate.The paper would fit into a panel on voter turnout; demographics; electoral laws; issues and political behavior; or representation and American elections. Because we are finishing up the book project during the Fall 2009 semester, we can easily orient the paper to whatever type of panel it fits on. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper advances and improves existing post-election audit sampling methodology. Methods for determining post-election audit sampling have been the subject of extensive recent research. This paper * provides an overview of post-election audit sampling research and compares various approaches to calculating post-election audit sample sizes, focusing on risk-limiting audits,* discusses fundamental concepts common to all risk-limiting post-election audits, presenting new margin error bounds, sampling weights and sampling probabilities that improve upon existing approaches and work for any size audit unit and for single or multi-winner election contests,* provides two new simple formulas for estimating post-election audit sample sizes in cases when detailed data, expertise, or tools are not available,* summarizes four improvedmethods for calculating risk-limiting election audit sample sizes, showing how to apply precise margin error bounds to improve the accuracy and efficacy of existing methods, and* discusses sampling mistakes that reduce post-election audit effectiveness.Adequate post-election audit sampling is crucial because analyzing discrepancies found in too-small samples can determine little except that the sample size is inadequate.This paper is one of three in a series Checking Election Outcome Accuracy. The other two articles discuss post-election auditing procedures and an algorithm for deciding whether to increase the sample or to certify the election outcome in response to any discrepancies found during a post-election audit. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of Sarah Palin by John McCain in the 2008 presidential election was perceived as one of the defining moments in the campaign. Anecdotal evidence from the McCain campaign and media commentary after the election suggests that Palin may have cost McCain support among key voting groups. This paper uses data from the 2008 American National Election Study to examine the extent of any "Palin Effect." The paper also places the findings of 2008 in context by historical comparison of the effect of vice-presidential nominees on vote choice when controlling for other variables using data from the NES Cumulative File. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central topic of this paper is the measurement of one variable, civic duty. This variable has become a mainstay in empirical research on individual voting behavior since the 1960s and it is one of the chief explanatory saviors of the rational choice model of voting. Nevertheless, the measurement of civic duty on the American National Elections Study is prima facie substandard. Question wording is one concern, as a number of scholars have demonstrated that seemingly small changes in question wording can have large effects on the answers individuals provide and the conclusions scholars draw. My primary concern is measurement validity, commonly defined as "whether a variable measures what it is supposed to measure" (King, Keohane, and Verba 1994). In survey research, the question is the instrument through which we measure a concept; if the wording is unclear, biased, or just plain bad, then any research that uses that indicator will also be flawed.In the paper, I will explain the controversies surrounding question wording and measurement validity; I will examine the existing body of work on civic duty; and I will empirical evaluate the validity of survey instruments that use different measures of civic duty in the United States and the United Kingdom. Possible explanations for the results, recommendations for further analysis, and the implications of these findings for research on voting behavior will also be discussed. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses data from the National Election Study to examine the impact, or lack thereof, of religious preferences in the last four U.S. presidential elections. Using multinomial logistic regression, the paper looks for the influence of religion, in terms of specific preferences as well as attendance, on presidential vote choice as well as stated preferences on individual issues as diverse as abortion rights, same-sex marriage, environmental preservation, foreign intervention, and social welfare spending. Additionally, the paper explores interactions between religious preferences and demographic characteristics such as race, gender, and age. Finally, the paper examines the relative predictive values of the traditional categorization of religion by sect and the contemporary culture war hypothesis put forth by Morris Fiorina and others, which emphasizes the importance of religiosity in determining political behavior. Specifically, I argue that the influence of the evangelical vote may be overstated by media and scholars alike. The paper concludes by suggesting that the increased importance of foreign policy in presidential elections has resulted in a decline in the influence of religion and religiously-based social preferences on voting behavior at the national level. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Party polarization among members of Congress has been increasing in recent years. While the evidence for this increasing polarization is substantial, the reasons for it have remained elusive. This paper proposes that partisan redistricting is one cause of polarization in the House of Representatives. While this explanation is not new, the theory developed in this paper uses median voter theory to explain how district level polarization can increase, while at the same time national levels of polarization among the voting public do not. Median voter theory provides an explanation of how the composition of voters within partisan redistricted districts incentivize House Members to become more ideologically extreme. Thus, partisan redistricting causes Members to change their behavior within the House in order to appease their more ideologically extreme constituency. A quantitative analysis is performed on Congressional districts using a statistical matching technique designed to demonstrate a statistically significant difference in ideological extremity among those Members within districts that have been gerrymandered as opposed to Members in non-gerrymandered districts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper does two things. First, we document the extent to which misreport persists across the past two decades of major academic voting surveys in the United States. Second, we assess whether the split population, or partial observability, model, which has recently gained prominence, provides a possible estimation-based "fix" for vote choice models that rely on survey data in which there is clear evidence of over-report for the winner. We consider both simulated data and data from the 1992 NES and SES for in-depth analysis. Especially in regards to those data that are available for past elections, estimation-based strategies likely provide the only feasible, albeit less than optimal, response in terms of addressing bias in vote choice models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we synthesize and extend theoretical accounts of the solicitor general's (SG) influence on the votes of Supreme Court justices. In particular, we argue that the level of politicization exhibited by the SG can affect both the foundation of political support the SG enjoys from ideologically proximate justices and the strength of "outlier signals" offered in particular cases. When the SG exhibits increased politicization, outlier signals are likely to be especially useful to ideologically distant justices and, therefore, predictive of their behavior. When the SG is less politicized, outlier signal briefs should be more equivalent to mainstream briefs, and, therefore, relatively less informative. Analyzing justices' votes in civil liberties and civil rights cases, we find empirical support for our theoretical claims. In particular, we find that the effects of politicization in the Office of the Solicitor General and outlier signals contained in individual case briefs are conditional on one another and on the degree of ideological divergence between each justice and the SG. This study offers a more complete account of the ways that political dynamics shape executive branch litigation and linkages between the president and the Supreme Court. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the causes of midterm decline in US elections is an important area of study in political science. Though there has been a lot of work on midterm decline at the national level, there has not been a lot of research about how theories of midterm decline can be applied to the US federal system. This paper focuses on establishing a relationship between the president's party and gubernatorial elections using longitudinal hierarchical linear modeling. I find that the evaluations of the president can impact elections, and that there is an important effect of presidential punishment. These results indicate the need for more research about how theories of midterm decline specifically impact state level voting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the influences racial resentment and racial stereotypes on Southern and non-Southern white, Asian, and Hispanic voters in the 2008 presidential election. I use logistic regression to test the hypotheses that racial resentment and racial stereotypes influenced support for McCain and that the influence of these two variables is greater in the South than in the non-South. The findings suggest that racial resentment's influence extends across both regions but that the affects of racial stereotypes is confined to the South. The analysis is replicated for US House elections in 2008, finding that impact of racial resentment and racial stereotypes is insignificant in both regions. In 2008, the influences of racism, resentment and regionalism on voting are confined to the presidential level [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides information on a research paper by researchers Philip Klinkner and Jesse Stinebring of the Hamilton College, Clinton, New York which analyses the impact of the race of U.S. President Barack Obama on the outcome of the 2008 election. It also examines the impact of Obama's massive spending advantage in boosting his vote beyond that predicted by election models employing standard political and economic variables.

Scholars of American politics have long been interested in the effects of divided party government on politics and policy. However, very little research has been devoted to examining the effects of divided government on Supreme Court decision making. Richardson and Scheb (1993) found that justices who are nominated and confirmed during periods of divided-party government cast more moderate votes than those appointed during periods of unified-party government. In this paper we re-examine this finding using a larger population of Supreme Court justices. We also attempt to refine their analysis by controlling for a variety of other factors. Despite these controls, we find that justices appointed under divided government tend to behave more moderately than do justices appointed during periods of unified government. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A great deal of political science literature addresses how religion affects voting behavior. In particular, the 2004 election was characterized by the media and political scientists as "a matter of faith" because both Catholics and Protestants favored the Republican party due to its conservative stances on moral issues and its efforts to attract religious voters. That changed in the 2008 election, as a majority of Catholics and higher numbers of other religious groups selected the Democratic candidate, Senator Barack Obama. This paper applies Schofield and Miller's model of realignment, in which candidates employ "flanking moves" to bring new constituencies into the party to form a winning coalition, to argue that Obama was able to win the Catholic vote by emphasizing his populist economic policies while courting religious voters and downplaying his liberal stances on social issues. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of elite polarization on partisan ambivalence and voting behavior. Specifically, a theory is developed which predicts that although many will be ambivalent about their party as the parties have polarized, they will actually be more likely to vote for their preferred party as the other choice is now relatively worse. This is contrary to expectations that individuals suffering from partisan ambivalence will defect or abstain. Presidential elections from 1976 to 2004 are examined and results show that as the parties have polarized levels of ambivalence have increased but as this has happened partisan ambivalence has now become a positive predictor of vote choice. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between civic duty and voter turnout. More specifically, I test the causal relationship between civic duty and voting and examine how election specific factors affect that relationship. Correspondingly, I perform logistic regression analysis of American National Elections Study (ANES) data from 1972-1992. The results suggest that civic duty is a strong motivation for voting, and that civic duty has a significant and independent effect on turnout. However, civic duty appears to be a more salient motivation for individuals who are less interested in the election, do not have a preferred outcome, and who are weaker partisans. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the relationship between constituency preferences and legislators' votes has been fundamental for empirical inquiry about representation. The most common approach to this type of research is dyadic and focuses on how members of Congress represent their geographic constituents. These studies account for member voting behavior with rationales including representational style, ideology, partisanship, and constituent preferences (e.g., Fenno 1978; Levitt 1996; Cox and McCubbins 1993; Canes-Wrone, Brady, and Cogan 2004). By also taking voter heterogeneity into account, however, Bailey and Brady (1998) present a unique empirical analysis for explaining representational linkages. Their analysis provides evidence that studies of representation based on analysis of roll call voting which fail to account for voter heterogeneity will overestimate the impact of the party and undervalue constituency influence. Bailey and Brady, however, measure voter heterogeneity with demographic variables which do not reliably indicate voter heterogeneity on the policy issue they assess (as I explain further in this paper).In this study I provide evidence that the connection between constituency interests and representative voting behavior is clearer when one accounts for voter heterogeneity specific to the legislation. As a research validation, I conduct ordered probit analysis of Senate voting on renewable energy legislation in the 110th Congress. As a research extension, I measure voter heterogeneity by accounting for each state's percentage of industry that generates non-renewable and renewable energy. I have collected all the data for this project and carried out extensive empirical analyses that confirm my argument above. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

*Abstract: In their article, "The Conditional Nature of Presidential Responsiveness to Public Opinion," Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and Shotts (2004) argue that when the next election is soon, the president tend to alter policy decisions in response to public opinion in order to increase presidential approval ratings. It implies that presidential approval ratings may have an impact on elections. The implication has made me raise the following questions: If presidential approval may have an impact on voter choice, how it works? In other words, which voters are likely to consider it and why? In this paper, I will try to answer the questions by examining the relationship between presidential approval and vote choice in presidential primaries. Specifically, I will examine the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination campaigns to see how presidential approval can affect the voting behavior of the opposition party supporters. I expect that presidential approval can be more influential to the opposition party supporters who are dissatisfied with the incumbent candidate than the others. They will be more likely to support "electable" candidates, who seem to have more chance to defeat the incumbent candidate in November, since defeating the incumbent candidate in November is the most important in making their vote decisions.* Hypothesis: The more the opposition party supporters are dissatisfied with the incumbent candidate on the other side, the more they are likely to support "electable" candidates of their party.* Data: National Election Pool Democratic Presidential Preference Primary Exit Polls, 2004, made available by ICPSR (Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research). ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Howard Baker’s leadership of the United States Senate impacted Senate Coalitions, Party cohesion and success on the Floor. This paper demonstrates that Baker’s leadership was nuanced and subtle, but measurable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both pooled aggregate analysis of the American states (Kone and Winters, 1993) and cross-sectional individual-level analysis of election exit polls in the states (Niemi et al., 1995) established weak negative impacts of changing taxes on subsequent vote outcomes and voter behavior. Our research investigates the impact of legislated changes in the sales, income, and "sin" taxes on individual voting using exit polls from 43 states in 228 elections from 1982-2000 yielding about 315,000 respondents. We hypothesize conditions that affect the tax-vote linkage. We find stronger negative effects of changes in the sales tax on vote choice, but little or no impact of changes in either the income or sin taxes. Some other non-obvious findings of the paper include: Republican candidates defending tax records do worse than Democratic candidates, a trait that appears concentrated among open seat Republicans. By decomposing into types of taxes changed, it appears that Republicans are particularly sensitive to sales tax changes, especially if an incumbent, and open seat Republicans to their party-predecessor's income tax changes. Of the impact of tax changes on voters, there appears to be little variation in the impact of tax changes on lower or upper income classes nor by party identification of the voter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we look again at the distinction between independent voters "leaners" and partisans. We find some important similarities between "pure" independents and independents classified as "leaners." We argue that although independent leaners may be similar to partisans on some measures, they are behaviorally and attitudinally distinct from partisans in important ways. Even more importantly, the behavioral similarity between partisans and leaners changes when there are more than two candidates on offer. The behavioral similarity of leaners to partisans emphasized in previous studies can thus be understood as a product of the forced choice between the two parties that typifies the American political system. When more options are available, independent leaners take advantage of those options and do not remain loyal to the two big parties in the same measure as partisans. The position of independent leaners in the US is thus loosely analogous to the position tactical voters in multi-party systems in that they are compelled by the party system to choose between the lesser of two evils. Our argument suggests that earlier results and interpretations of independents reflected the specific two party choice settings of the 1950s through the 1980s. Furthermore, even assuming a behavioral similarity to partisans, leaners have distinct attitudes towards politics and the political system that put them far away from being standard Michigan model-type voters. We begin by presenting a brief review of the sizable literature on this topic. From here we present some simple evidence that supports an alternative interpretation of leaners as neither partisans nor "pure" independents, but as "critical citizens." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of the gender gap in American politics, there is still much debate about the source of this disparity in party identification and vote choice. For example, it is unclear whether campaigns have a role in affecting the size of the gender gap. In this paper, we examine how the issue-focus of Senate campaigns influences the size of the gender gap in those contests. We argue that the gender gap will be larger in elections where women?s issues are more central to the campaign and smaller when women?s issues are not as salient. Our analysis combines exit polls with data on campaign advertising in 24 Senate campaigns to examine the relationship between campaigns and the gender gap. We find that, even when controlling for partisanship, gender is a significant factor in affecting vote choice when women?s issues are more prevalent in campaign advertising. Thus, campaigns can affect the size of the gender gap by focusing more on the issues that tend to produce that gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For decades the study of state legislatures has been a popular focus for research within the field of political science. Earlier studies performed in partisan legislatures have confronted issues such as professionalism, electoral studies and formation of caucuses and committee systems. Recently, as the field has delved deeper into this area as a result of ?devolution,? more studies have been performed on areas of legislative behavior: the impact of political parties, district constituencies, and interest groups on roll calls, to name just a few. Though much research has been conducted on state legislatures in general, few studies have analyzed vote structuring and its effects on institutional conflict and cohesion across more than one of two legislatures or over more than a few sessions. This paper uses over 5,000 roll calls from six different legislatures during a five-year period in an effort to capture the effects of voting behavior and structure across a variety of institutional arrays. The differences between one-party, party-less and transitional two-party systems are also examined in an effort to determine how the impact of party varies across these legislatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents political issues in the U.S. as of January 2016, particularly the effects of context on vote choice. Also cited are the independent studies in the U.S. and Great Britain on the voting preference of various races and social status, a study on the negative effect of the African American population on white racial attitudes in the U.S., and the study on the role of racial context on political behavior.

Federalism manifests itself distinctly in the administration of elections, as the Constitution and historical practice leave this largely in the hands of the states. Consequently, voters across state and even local jurisdictions are likely to have different experiences at the polls. Based on a collection of data about the election features of states and counties in the 2008 election, we examine the impact of state party traditions on what voters encounter, including the frequency of partisan vs. non-partisan elections, the number of ballot propositions, ballot layout, opportunities to use convenience voting options, and other election characteristics. We find that the characteristics of a state's election system vary by the contours of its party system. Furthermore, individual attitudes about the voting process and toward political parties also differ by the kind of party system in the state. We also find that these attitudes are partially mediated by election characteristics, at least for independents. We thus demonstrate the enduring impact of states' political traditions, some aspects of which originated a century or more ago, on the conduct and administration of contemporary electoral systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on judicial elections shows that voters are ill-informed when it comes to these elections (Dubois 1979), and that partisanship is a huge factor in voter decision making (Klein and Baum 2001; Squire and Smith 1988; Dubois 1979). Some judicial scholars (Gibson 2008), as well as judicial organizations such as the AJS and ABA, are concerned about how judicial elections might affect judicial independence. But, how would voters act if they had more access to campaign information about the candidates? This paper explores the relationship of vote choice to a judicial candidate's issue positions when compared to partisanship. The paper also examines whether peoples' levels of political knowledge of the judiciary and their views about the proper role of a judge affect whether and how they are influenced by the partisanship of judicial candidates or the messages of judicial candidates. To address these issues, I conducted an experimental survey on 700 undergraduates in the spring of 2008, using hypothetical press releases of judicial candidates. Survey respondents were shown one of several versions of a press release and asked to respond to questions about the candidate. Respondents were also tested for their knowledge and opinions on politics and the courts and on their views of the proper role of the judiciary. The control group received a press release with only information on the candidate's experience. Other groups received additional information on either the candidate's partisanship, or the candidate's issue positions (candidates were either pro-life or tough on crime), or both. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The capricious political environment surrounding the 2008 presidential election - for example the rarity of having an open seat election, the prospect of having the first woman or African American president, and the large number of states holding their primaries earlier - created an exciting primary season. In evaluating the primary season, one question that arises is whether these unusual circumstances translated into higher voter turnout. This paper will analyze the impact frontloading primaries had on voter turnout. There are several potential consequences - both positive and negative - from states holding their primaries earlier in the year. This paper explores these potential consequences, and focuses specifically on whether states holding their primaries earlier had higher voter turnout than states holding their primaries later. To determine whether this is the case, the percentage of voters who turned out in each state's primary in 2008 will be compared with the percentage of voters who turned out in the state during the 2000 primaries. If turnout is higher in states holding earlier contests, then other states may have motivation to hold their primaries earlier. The 2000 and 2008 primaries are more comparable than the 2008 and 2004 primaries, mainly because George W. Bush was running for reelection in 2004 resulting in many states not holding Republican contests. Aside from discussing voter turnout, this paper will also examine other issues surrounding states holding their primaries earlier in the year. For example, disagreements between states and national party organizations about when primaries can be held will also be explored. Ultimately, this paper will reveal some of the implications of states holding their primaries earlier, and also make predictions about how primaries will be conducted in the future. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much has been written about roll rates in the recent literature on congressional organization. A roll is a roll call vote on which a member or coalition of members votes against a legislative provision that nevertheless passes. A roll rate is then constructed by finding the proportion of rolls among some sample of roll call votes of interest. The debate over roll rates regards the utility of roll rates as a measure of party effects. This paper argues that roll rates used to test for party effects in this way posit alternative possible legislative agendas, and that evidence for party effects uncovered by roll rates analysis must be compared to baseline roll rates produced through "nonpartisan" means. This paper uses simulation techniques to produce such baseline roll rates, using a simple decision rule and a variety of measures of legislators' preferences, and compares these baseline roll rates to the observed roll rates produced by the actual agenda of the House of Representatives. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the great interest heaped upon the role of new voters in the 2008 presidential election, this paper is timely, in that it draws upon a unique survey of Ohio voters, including those who registered to vote just prior to the 2004 presidential election. This paper paints a statistical portrait of the newly registered voter and compares this creature to her previously registered counterpart on indicators such as: socioeconomics, attitudinal measures of efficacy and citizen engagement, political engagement, ideology and psychological attachment to a party, political communication with primary and secondary social groups, and a host of other variables measured in the survey. In general, it is found that the newly registered voter, save for those eligible to vote for the first time, score less on measures of civic and political engagement and attitudes that predict political participation than the previously registered voter, leading one to question their importance in elections in which they are touted as integral to victory. To that end, the voting behavior of the newly registered of 2004 is tracked, on through to the 2008 presidential election, and includes behavior in the 2006 midterm. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do people decide to turn out? More specifically, does the distance from a polling location increase or decrease their likelihood of voting? This central question guides the research I propose. Consistent with early work by Downs (1957), surveys indicate that the act of voting is not neutral; individuals must reallocate time from working, family, or leisure and exert energy to travel to a polling location, stand in line, cast a ballot, and proceed to the next destination. This process can inhibit the ability of some individuals to vote, implying that physical resources, in part, determine their likelihood of voting. Haspel and Knotts (2005) provide an excellent study addressing the effect of geographic distance on turnout in the Atlanta area during mayoral races. In this paper, I propose to expand on this work by examining voter roll information for much of the state of Mississippi, across several national and sub-national elections. These data allow for further heterogeneity in group characteristics to be explored, and indicate any change in turnout that may occur due to the type of election being held. Second, this paper will incorporate not only the distance that an individual lives away from their polling place, but the distance that they travel to work, including several other mitigating factors. This paper will further assess the impact of distance on voting and go beyond current studies to create more robust findings. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sizable literature has demonstrated the importance of social networks for both electoral decision-making (e.g., Huckfeldt and Sprague 1995) and political participation (e.g., Mutz 2002). However, the question of how networks operate over time has been largely unexamined. Do voters discuss politics with the same individuals during a general election as during a primary? Moreover, how do the characteristics of an individual's network - in terms of density, composition, and the content of political discussion - change over time? And what are the potential behavioral consequences of such changes (or non-changes)?I address these questions using an original longitudinal study following a group of Franklin County, Ohio Republican primary voters. The sample of voters was first surveyed in the summer of 2006 after the gubernatorial primary; the follow-up survey was conducted in late 2006 after the general election. Given that both the original survey and the general election follow-up were specially designed to tap the frequency, content, structure, and context of interpersonal political discussion, the data are particularly appropriate for answering the questions posed. This paper makes several contributions to the study of voting behavior and public opinion. The county-wide network panel study is among the first to examine voters' social networks over time and across multiple electoral contexts, and therefore provides a first look at how people's social circles react to political developments. By thinking temporally about social influence, this paper provides a better understanding of how social channels enable (or inhibit) information flow and mobilization. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of academic studies have found that during the past 40 years, states with the citizen initiative have lower taxes and less spending than other states (Matsusaka, 1996, 2004). However, the academic literature has spent little time examining why this is the case. Some have argued anecdotally that ballot initiatives are used to enact large tax reductions at the state level. However, while California's Proposition 13 continues to receive a great deal of attention, few other states have used the initiative process to enact tax reductions of a similar magnitude.Others have argued that taxes are lower in initiative states because these states are more likely to have fiscal limitations. These limits include state spending caps and supermajority requirements for tax increases. However, the academic literature is split about the effectiveness of many of these fiscal limitations. Furthermore, those fiscal limits that have demonstrated short term effectiveness, such as Colorado's Taxpayer Bill of Rights, have only been enacted recently.A look at history might be able to resolve this intellectual puzzle. The size of government was not always lower in initiative states. Indeed, Matsusaka finds that taxes and spending were actually higher in initiative states during the first half of the century. Furthermore, taxing and spending levels were similar in initiative and non-initiative states during the 1950s and 1960s. It was not until the late 1960s and early 1970s that initiative states started to consistently tax and spend less than other states. In this paper, I am going to examine what caused this shift. Preliminary results indicate that initiative states started to receive less grant money from the Federal Government starting in the late 1960s. Since many grants require matching funds, a reduction in grants from the federal government can often have a significant impact on overall fiscal outcomes. In this paper, I will examine why initiative states started to receive less in the way of government grants. Furthermore, I will replicate Matsusaka's findings and explore other factors that would have caused this reduction in taxes and spending in initiative states.This analysis should provide insights as to why initiative and non-initiative states have different fiscal outcomes. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Conference of State Legislators, and the National Association of State Budget Officers will be used in this study. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent scholarship has shown that states holding a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council receive higher levels of aid from the United States. This has led to the question: are states being bribed for their votes? The results from the existing literature support an affirmative answer to this question. Using recently available data on votes in the UN Security Council, I unpack a bit further the mechanism that underlies this empirical observation and explore in greater detail how the US employs its persuasive powers. My results only partially confirm the results of these previous studies. In particular, I find that the US does use financial incentives to persuade states to vote with them on the Security Council. However, the US does not generally punish states for their voting behavior. These results suggest one or both of the following: 1) the US is not actually bribing countries for particular votes, but rather buying goodwill; 2) implied threats from the US are strong enough that it rarely has to punish anyone. These findings add greater nuance to the current understanding of vote-buying as a tool of persuasion within international organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study on impact of economic perceptions on attitudes towards the U.S. Supreme Court and non-political institutions. It discusses impact of economy on economic perceptions on voting decisions, position of the U.S. Supreme Court as legitimizer of national policies, and the American National Election Studies (ANSE). Also mentions that gross domestic product's (GDP) impact on attitudes toward the Supreme Court.

The article offers information on a study which addresses the question of how media covers state legislatures in the U.S., and its implications on the voting decisions and public trust. Topics discussed include motivation of individual legislators for re-election, ties of legislators with publisher, reporters and editors, and policy-related stories published in the newspaper. It also mentions government accountability in terms of ethics, lobbying, and election reform.

Can engaging in politics online increase political participation? Using a unique panel study from the 2008 election, we examine whether increasing online engagement increased the likelihood of voting in the primaries, voting in the general election, and participating in other traditional forms of participation. Our change in online engagement measure is a new, robust way of investigating the internet's effect on political participation by tracking change over the course of an entire election. Since Obama's campaign heavily focused on the internet, we also test whether increased online engagement increased the likelihood of voting for him. We find that increased online engagement increased the likelihood of voting in the general election and of voting specifically for Obama. Increased online engagement also increases the likelihood of participating in our other measures of participation, but does not increase the likelihood of participating in the primary/caucus process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on a study related to the role of voting in election which helps in establishing stability of political party in the U.S. It informs about the explanation of Michigan model in order to address concern towards party identification. It reports that identification of political party majorily correlated with vote choice and this increases its stability with age.

This research focuses on the relationship between state party systems and the electoral administration system used in the state. Using a unique data set of 2,000 voters from the 2008 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), this research examines the relationship between the type of voting system used by a state and the political characteristics of the state. The electoral system--including ballot and machine type--is matched to the voters from each state in the CCES sample. The data set provides insights into the kind of electoral system used in each state and its ability to produce satisfaction among the voters who use the system. The research finds considerable variation across states in ballot length, type, format, and structure. These variables in turn produce differences in voter satisfaction with the voting process. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the "Two Faces of Issue Voting" (1980), Carmines and Stimson argue that some issues are inherently "easy" and are understood by the public at an emotional, "gut" level, while other issues are intrinsically "hard" and require greater political sophistication and interest to process. This theory is intuitively appealing and widely cited in the American political behavior literature. Yet "easy" issues have been interpreted differently by various scholars, so how can we tell which are "easy" issues? Using survey data over time, I explore different measures of easiness, beginning with a traditional measure (connection to the vote) and then moving to other potential indicators of easy issues, examining the role of core values and group affect in conditioning issue easiness. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implicit in the gender, religion, and race literatures is the notion that identity figures prominently in models of political behavior, dictating a wide range of opinions, attitudes, and beliefs about politics. Political efficacy also contributes independently to individual political behavior, playing a significant role in determining levels of political engagement. While studies of identity and politics conceptualize political behavior as inherently a collective enterprise, measures of political efficacy maintain a myopic vision of political engagement. This study attempts to reconcile this incongruity in two ways: it advances a theory of identity and political engagement, and develops a measure of identity-based political efficacy. Based on a survey of a representative sample of Americans, this study shows that, after controlling for identity-based political efficacy, traditional measures of political efficacy become insignificant. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voters are influenced by their own preferences as well as the electoral context in which they make decisions. This study will examine contextual reasons why some voters choose to support third party candidates in US Congressional elections, as well as why some districts allocate a larger share of their votes to these candidates than other districts.The district level models will include measures of the propensity of a constituency to allocate votes to third party candidates: whether the previous occupant of the office was a member of a third party, and if so, the margin of his/her victory in the previous election. Due to the rate of incumbent success in Congressional elections (Mayhew 1974), the type of election, open seat or incumbent-challenger, will be taken into account as well. The individual level models will also take these contextual factors into account to demonstrate their impact on the voter's decision, but will also examine the impact of other independent variables. The analysis that determines whether individuals vote for third party candidates will be heavily influenced by Rosenstone, Behr, and Lazarus (1996). With a few exceptions, the same independent variables will be included in my micro-level analyses that were included in their vote choice model (chapter 6). Attitudinal variables that are included in the micro level analysis measure the importance of issues to respondents as well as their assessments of major party candidates. The same cohort and demographic variables that were used by Rosenstone, Behr, and Lazarus are also included. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does voting in public increase or depress turnout? We present a theory of the effect of social pressure on voter turnout, arguing that both social costs and social benefits can affect individual behavior. We test our theory by conducting a randomized field experiment during the 2008 Iowa Democratic presidential caucus, sending mailers to registered Democrats suggesting different reasons for voting. We include three treatments: (1) one telling citizens of the date, time, and location of the caucus; (2) one telling citizens the caucus is a public meeting where neighbors and friends will be attending; and (3) one telling citizens that the caucus does not have a secret ballot and that their neighbors and friends will be attending. We find that citizens are more likely to vote when information costs are reduced and when they are told the caucus is a public meeting. However, we find that turnout is reduced when citizens are told their vote choices must be revealed to their neighbors. To our knowledge, this is the first field experiment where a treatment has resulted in suppression of the vote relative to other treatment effects. These findings provide insights into individual behavior in a social context, a rejection of one explanation for heavy voter turnout in 19th century America, and practical insights for campaigns interested in mobilizing voters to presidential caucuses. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much has been written on religion and the presidency, yet precious little is scholarly work has been done, especially when compared to the growing literature on religion and Congress as well as religion and voting behavior (See Fowler et. al. 1999 Religion and Politics in America: Faith, Culture, and Strategic Choices; Green et. al. 1996 Religion and the Culture Wars: Dispatches from the Front; Wald 2003 Religion and Politics in the United States). Since Robert Bellah's articulation of American Civil Religion and the president's role as priest and prophet in Civil Religion in America (1974), it has been clear that presidents must consider the role religion will play in their conduct and policies, particularly given the religious character of the nation. Here a typology is developed which examines four distinct religious roles presidents take based on the salience of religion in their personal and public lives. Personal religious salience is examined using three indicators, commonly employed in the study of religion and voting behavior, including religious belief, belonging, and behavior. Concurrently, the salience of religion in a president's public life is scrutinized by investigating the extent to which religion is manifest in the construction of his (and someday her) policy views, approach to church and state relations, articulation of civil religion, and reliance upon religion as a foundation for his public character. Archetypes are used to illustrate each of the presidential typologies. Finally, I discuss the relationship between presidents' religious types and their leadership styles, policy orientations, and political skills. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the impact of legislative extremism on contestation and vote share in the U.S. Studies indicate that incumbent ideological extremity varies across members. The authors claim that increased incumbent ideological extremity does increase the possibility of contestation and produce smaller vote shares for members coming from moderate districts. However, the increased incumbent ideological extremity decreases the possibility of contestation and increases vote shares for members from ideologically extreme districts.

The article examines the impact of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (NVRA) on the core demographic characteristics of voter registration in the U.S. A brief description of the voting process in the country is presented, along with the key provisions of the NVRA. Advocates of the NVRA believed that lowering the barriers to voter registration would increase the number of eligible citizens and the diversity of the voting pool. The NVRA has raised the number of registered citizens and the percentage of the voting population.

In recent decades, a majority of states have instituted some form of early or convenience voting, whether in person or through the mail. With availability of these options, the cost to citizens of participating in elections has invariably declined, which would lead us to expect that turnout should therefore increase. It is still not clear, however, whether the expansion of the opportunity to vote has actually increased participation, and if so, for whom. Using 2004 American National Elections Studies data, as well as information about the activities of the Bush and Kerry campaigns in each state, we examine whether the institution of these alternatives does in fact increase the chances that an individual will turn out to vote in presidential elections, either directly or in combination with activities of the campaigns. Overall, we find no main effect for the availability of any form of early or convenience voting on the probability that an individual will vote. We do, however, find that in person early voting, when combined with television advertising by the campaigns, can increase the chances that individuals who are otherwise least likely to vote will take part in the election. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the impact of the limited vote/limited nomination system in the U.S. It has been observed that the system being used in Connecticut improves the role of the local party caucus while minimizing the role of the voter in the selection of representatives. In the democratic process, the structure of a government's electoral system plays a significant role. The choice of electoral systems for legislatures at all levels of government support the single-member plurality (SMP) districts.

Decades of research suggests that campaign contact, together with an advantageous socioeconomic profile, increases the likelihood of casting a ballot. Measurement and modeling handicaps permit a lingering uncertainty about campaign communication as a source of political mobilization however. Using data from a uniquely detailed telephone survey conducted in a pair of highly competitive 2002 U.S. Senate races, we further assess the influence of politics on participation. We conclude that vote history is the most important stimulant in voter mobilization but that holding this variable constant reveals some effect for campaign communication among intermittent voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explores the issue base of the gender gap in voting. Overview of the central issues on which women and men differ in U.S. politics; Factors which make women relatively liberal on issues affecting the less fortunate in society and less likely than men to vote strictly in terms of their own economic self-interest; Several models of how the issue positions of women and men can shape the gender gap in voting; Reasons women are becoming an important serial constituency in U.S. politics.

Assesses the relationships between a number of theoretically significant variables as empirical predictors of the Democratic and Republican primary vote in the U.S. from 1976 through 2004. Main predictors of the aggregate presidential vote as found by existing forecasting models; Theoretical factors that are likely candidates to improve the forecasting models as identified by studies on presidential nominations; Information on several studies that focused on predicting the primary vote with information from before the primaries.